Hoops Tonight - Series Preview: Knicks-Pacers Eastern Conference Finals Preview + Prediction

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Void in Ontario. New customers only. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume heavy sun to every hopeful. If you guys are having a great weekend as promised, We're getting to our Eastern Conference Finals preview today, So I mean the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers what should be a very

entertaining series. Two very different teams than we expected to see at this point in time, but two teams that are playing great basketball led by two elite guards. It's gonna be super fascinating. We're going to get into it, like we usually do, from a bunch of different angles. We'll talk about the season series, we'll talk about the gambling odds on DraftKings, we'll talk about the pacers with

the ball, the Knicks with the ball. We'll talk a little bit about the respective bench units, and then we will get to our prediction. You guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops to Night YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast feed where you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review on

that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there. In last but not least, keep dropping mail bag questions in the YouTube comments that we can get to to our mail bags in our mail bags throughout the remainder of the post season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So season series the Knicks one two to one. Two of the games took place in the

first couple weeks of the season. That's the only game where like everyone actually played was in October, so not too much to take away there, But the metrics that came out of those three games. The Knicks log Day one to twenty six offensive rating in the three games. The Pacers log Day one to fifteen offensive rating in

the three games. The Knicks also dominated the glass. They grabbed fifty three point six percent of available rebounds and they grabbed over thirty percent of their own misses in this matchup in the regular season. Our odds, again, they are provided by our partner DraftKings. The Knicks are currently a minus one forty favorite to win the series. I

think that's a good betting opportunity. On the Indiana side, I view this as very much a coin flip series, and I think the Pacers are a slightly better team, But I think the Knicks have home court advantage and that that obviously matters, so that to me makes it a coin flip and in a coin flip to get Indy at plus one twenty is obviously the better price for me. Let's start with the Pacers on the ball, so matchups. McHale Bridges regard Tyres Haliburton. He did a

good job there in the regular season. Tyre's average seventeen to nine in the three games on forty four percent from the field twenty six percent from three But again it's worth mentioning, like we did in the Friday Night Show, Tyres is just playing at a substantially higher level now than he did when these games took place. But Michale

does have the tools for it. He has a good motor, he navigates screens well, he's got the length to pressure from behind, he can peel switch, and I think we will see some switching, especially in Halliburton Siakam actions, in this series. I'd also consider if I was Tom Thibodeaux and McHale Bridges trying to deny Tyres Haliburton the ball. The Cavs did a lot of this in their second round series and actually had some success playing Halliburton into

some passive stretches just by denying him the ball. Like ball goes in the basket instead of letting him inbound just stand in front of Tyres Haliburton and maybe he'll just kind of let someone else take it and just kind of it just kind of plays him into passivity. So that's something that I would potentially consider if I was Tom Thibodham. They have Jalen Brunson guard Andrew Nemhard, which I think is fascinating. Right. What you would think is you put him on a guy like aaron Ne Smith.

But I think this is the right call to move Brunson over to Nemhard. Nie Smith is playing super well as of late, and he brings a ton of athletic force to the position, so it actually makes sense to have Josh Hart, a better athlete, try to match Aaron Nesmith's athletic force. Now, as far as Brunson on Nemhard, there will still be some issues there. Indiana will find ways to attack Brunson there. Nemhard can run action on the ball that will force Brunson to either pursue through

screens or to switch on to Biggs. Nemhard will also run inverted action as the screener. He'll screen for Halliburton or he'll screen for Siakam and in those situations, I expect Brunson to hedge and recover. And so in those gaps, like Nemhard screens for let's say yakam and Brunson doesn't want to switch on a Siakam, he'll throw the hedge Nemhart slips out of it, there's an opening there for Nemhart to catch and try to look to attack. And so that's a big way that I think we'll see

Nemhard look to attack Brunson. I emphasize differences in the Friday Night Show. If you guys remember between what the Celtics Knicks matchup looked like and what the Pacers Knicks matchup looked like. This is one of those ways, like Brunson defended really well in that Celtics series, but it was different. There's a lot of like one on one defense against Brunson, or excuse me, against Jalen Brown and

against Jason Tatum. They weren't really posting him so much as they were isoing him, and they were kind of like settling for tough, contested jump shots over the top of Brunson. This is going to be more of a test of speed. It's gonna be a situation where he's gonna need to fly around out of those hedges to get back into rotation as Nemhart looks to attack. Obviously, Brunson defended well against Boston, but this is a different matchup. How well Brunson defends will play a big role. Josh

Hard on Aaron E. Smith. Aaron Smith's just a better player than he was last year. He's shooting fifty two percent on unguarded catch and shoot threes in the playoffs, so you can't leave them open. He's shooting forty six percent on guarded catch and shoot jump shots in the playoffs, so if you get there in time, it might not even matter. And he's shooting fifty four percent on twos when he drives closeouts, including seven for twelve on mid

range jump shots. He's putting the ball on the floor against the closeout, snatch back, dribble pull up in the mid range, spin over his right shoulder pull up in the mid range. Like he's got some really high level shot making that he's bringing to the table. At this point. He's averaging fifteen points per game in the playoffs. He had a twenty three point game against the Cavs there's real volume scoring there. He's also the best offensive rebounder

on the team. He gets one point six offensive rebounds in this postseason per game. That's more than Miles Turner, more than anybody else on the team. He relentlessly slashes and crashes and all that kind of stuff because he's a ball pressure guy who wants to pick up Brunson full court anyway, So he's gonna end up around the basket anywhere on anyway trying to deny him, catches trying to pick him up. So all that crashing and slashing just kind of fits into what his role is on

the defensive end anyway. So I think between the volume scoring and the offensive rebounding and all that athletic force, it makes sense to have Josh Hart be the guy who's taken those hits. Especially with Brunson having to pick up a lot of like we just talked about a lot of that full court pressure, you don't want to have him also take wear and tear trying to deal with Aaron E. Smith just being a pain in the

ass athlete. If you don't believe that's an issue, as Donovan Mitchell, who just had to do in the last round and at one point got slammed into the ground off of a dunk on an offensive rebound when he tried to match up with Aeron Smith crashing down the lane on a free throw. Oj Annobi on Pascal Siaka, Siakam attacked Og one on one and attempted a shot just twice this season, a couple of pretty tough contested pull up that he made and then a more open up off of a move where he got good separation.

So he's two for two. But again, I don't think we'll see a ton of that outside of late clock situations, and the Pacers are not using Siakam a ton on the ball in these playoffs regardless. He's logged seventy five shot attempts in spot up situations in transition and slipping out of ball screens, but only forty four shot attempts in post ups ISOs in ball screens as the handler, So like it's not as exaggerated as it is with Og on offense, because Og similarly has been way more

aggressive off ball than he's been on ball. But even with Siakam was a better on ball player, He's doing most of his work, like two thirds of his work off the ball. The transition sequences and spot ups are self explanatory. He's knocking down catch and shoot threes, driving clothes outs, just pushing the ball in transition with his athleticism. But the stuff like popping out of pick and roll or posts up in ISO situations, that stuff is interesting.

Siakam got a lot of pick and pop looks in the first two rounds in large part because the bucks and calves re guarding him with bigs. There was some switching, but there were a lot of sequences where he was open on pick and pops. This series, if Mikale Bridges is on Tyree s Halliburton and Ojn Andobi's on Siakam, they're switching that ball screen. So he's not going to get as many picking pop threes as he did in that second round series. He might still get some in

some specific screening actions. I just don't expect it to be as big of a factor as it was in earlier rounds. So it will come down to Siakam attacking one on one in ISO and post up situations, most likely not against Brunson, because again, as we look in the at any of the previous matchups between these teams, they just had you to recover with him and try

to keep him off Siakam at all costs. But throughout this season and last year in the second round, the favorite matchup for Siakam against the Knicks has been Josh Hart. If you guys remember this. Last year in the postseason, Siakam just horched him over and over and over again, especially after ogn Andobi went down towards the tail end of the series. They were just straight up double teaming those post ups on Josh Hart. It was a problem.

Even this year in the regular season, the player Siakam looked to attack most and switches with oj Andnobe available. With McHale Bridges on the team, he wanted to go

after Josh Hart. That's his favorite matchup there. As for Ojan Andobi's job specifically in this matchup with Siakam, outside of the few times that will see him guard Siakam one on one, it's just helping recover situations, right, A lot of situations where he's going to be digging down, diving at the basketball, but also getting out to Siakam did a great job of that in the Celtics series. He's arguably the Knicks best defender. I expect him to

be great again in this series. Karl Anthony Towns and Miles Turner. This matchup is interesting on both ends of the floor because when Miles Turner is on offense, he's obviously not as good offensively as Cat, but Cat's not as good defensively as he is, So it's like I'm that into the floor. They're both like lesser versions of themselves. But then when the Knicks are on offense, Kat's obviously substantially better, but Miles is substantially better, so it's a

different challenge there. But again, when the Pacers have the ball, this is where I have the most concern for the Knicks defense in this matchup. Miles Turner is doing a ton of damage as an off ball scorer in these playoffs, shooting forty five from three on four attempts per game. He'll take them spotting up, he'll take them popping, He'll roll to the elbows and shoot a little short jump shots.

He's doing a ton of work there. So Kat's job in those help and recover situations will be to whether it's in a drop coverage or it's helping off of an action somewhere else on the floor to just make sure he towes that line between being in there to help but also making sure he gets out to contest Miles Turner. The Pacers are very good at relentlessly hunting those kinds of reads, and so Kat is going to

be the primary entry point that the Pacers look to attack. Now, before we go to the Knicks on offense, I want to highlight Tyre's Halliburton for a minute. He's obviously the engine that makes this offense go right with his kick ahead, passes, the pace he plays within the half court, the relentless

advantage hunting all that stuff. But there will be, in all likelihood a few close games in this series, and in those moments, Halliburton's going to be competing with the player in Brunson, who has been far and away the best clutch player in the NBA. In this postseason. Brunson has scored forty three clutch points in these playoffs. No other player in the NBA scored more than twenty six. Now, to be clear, Halliburton has had a great clutch postseason.

Two twenty points on fifteen shots, two game winners each that ended, one that ended a series, and one that stole Game two on the road in Cleveland, and the Pacers are actually yet to lose a clutch game in this postseason thanks to two last minute seven point comebacks, both captured by Halliburton game winners. But the point is we're gonna see these slow down showdowns, switch hunting matchup, attacking isolation contests between Brunson and Haliburton, and which direction

those games go could potentially swing the series. It's just

something to keep an eye on, all right. The key for the Knicks defense before we move on defensive communication and effort in rotation between the relentless transition pushes that Indiana's famous for and accounting for Turner spacing off of Kat and Siakam drawing double teams on guys like Josh Hart and the Post or whoever else it might be, or if it's brunts and hedging and recovering and and Nemhard getting clean catches, whatever it is, the Knicks will

likely spend most of the series in man down situations, meaning someone for Indiana will be open and the Knicks will have to rotate to that guy. Oj McHale and Josh Hart are all fantastic rotators when they are locked in, but as many Knicks fans will tell you, they can also have bad nights. So that's something to keep an eye on. If they have one too many of those bad nights, it could cost them the series. All right, let's move to New York. On offense, I expect Aaron E.

Smith to start on Jalen Brunson. We have a pretty solid say now of Nemhar doing a good job on Brunson, but Brunson just being a bit too strong for nem hard and very capable of shooting over the top. So and also just based on what happened last in their final regular season matchup in February this year, Carlisle started with Knie Smith on Brunson, so I think we'll see a Nie Smith on there. Brunson has had success against Nie Smith, but it just looks harder. He's bigger and stronger,

can't bump him as easily. It's harder for him to shoot over the top. I think that makes the most sense. Ball pressure is going to be the key here. The Pacers will likely attempt to pick up Jalen Brunson full court all series, and Brunson's good at handling pressure, but

there's a wear and tear factor. It could lead to fatigue for Brunson as games progress or as the series progresses, So the Knicks could look to mitigate this by having someone else bring the ball at the floor right, Have Josh Hart bring it up, have Michael Bridges bring it up. But the Pacers will pressure that guy too. They ball

pressure everyone full court. So it's just on the Knicks to avoid getting sped up, to avoid losing control of the game, and those like defense to transition sequences because they turn the ball over take bad shots against ball pressure. That is going to be a big swing factor in this series. As for Nie Smith and Nemhard, the job

is just stay attached and make them work. In the regular season, in pick and roll, the Pacers used at the level coverages with both Turner and Bryan, meaning meeting Brunson before he can come around and turn the corner. That actually made Brunson more of a scorer, and his scoring totals were lower in this matchup. In the regular season the average about twenty points per game efficiently, but only about twenty points per game. They made him get

rid of the ball more. But there's two edges to that. Sword Kat lit up the Pacers this year in that pacer in that coverage. If you're bringing two on the ball to attend to Brunson, there are going to be advantages beneath on the pop or if they rotate to the pop on the weak side, like that's where the Knicks did a lot of damage to Indiana this year. Again, the job though, dealing with Brunson in those ball screens,

it's a bracket. So whether it's Miles Turner or it's Thomas Bryant, they got to be active up at the level of the screen and then Nemhard and Knee Smith just have to chase over the top, stay attached right in ISO situations. And again we know Brunson will ISO those guys straight up dozens of times in this series. Slide your feet, take contact in the chest, attack his base before he goes up, get a good contest, live

with the results. Hope he wears down. But to be clear, Jalen Brunson is just playing at an incredibly high level right now and there's only so much you can do. Andrew nev Hart will start on Michal Bridges. Mchaal struggled in this matchup in the regular season just twelve points per game, shot twenty percent from three, but he shot poorly in general to start the season, and two of those games happened during that stretch. McHale's role on the

Knicks is interesting. When Brunson's on the floor, he'll run some second side action, but he mostly looks to attack off the catch and in transition. He has not shot the ball very well in this postseason, but he has hit some very important threes. When Brunson is off the floor, They've been leaning into him as like a ball handler and spread pick and roll at the top of the key with Mitchell Robinson, and he's been getting some looks

in the midrange to drop. He shot well there forty four percent on fifty two attempts on twos inside of seventeen feet in the playoffs. He's won games for the Knicks in this playoff run. Hitting those shots for Nemhard just about getting contests, rear view contests and pick and roll. Obviously, Turner and Briant got to be active with their hands up in their drop coverages, but also in general and in spot up situations. Nemhard just has to get a

hand up. There's been a consistent trend this year. This actually extends to Og and Josh Hart so to stand by. We'll get to that in a minute. But with McHale bridges in the regular season and in the playoffs, where his shooting has gone down substantially from unguarded to guard it, we've seen what happens. He elevates comically high and kicks his legs. Every time he gets rushed on a three.

He just responds by making it like a really tough shot, right, And he's hit some of those, but he makes them tougher and his percentages go down. So all you gotta do if your nem haard is just focus on making sure that you get a quality contest in those situations. Skim on og Nanobi. As mentioned earlier, ojn Andobi has just been a more exaggerated off ball version of what Siakam is. There's some on ball stuff. He'll run a handful of ball screens, ISOs and post ups. You'll see

about four of them per game in the postseason. He's efficient on him. He gets just over a point per possession, but it's super low volume. But Og is super aggressive off the ball. He's taking one hundred and eighteen shots in this postseason. In transition and spot up situations, he's shooting forty eight percent on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots. He is the quintessential off ball scoring forward, as we've talked about so much this season. So siakam a lot

of help and recover decity. How well can he account for helping in the paint on other actions while also making sure that he gets contests in containment on closeouts against oj Anoby once again, get the contest in this postseason, oj Anobe drops from forty eight percent to twenty four percent on catch and shoot jump shots when you just can test him per s energy. Tyre's Halliburton on Josh

Hart in theory, this is the perfect heedge and recover option. Right, Josh Hart's not a movement shooter, but there are two potential options here. And remember when I say like when I say like movement shooting to beat hedging, all that means is Halliburn's throwing a hedge. There is a slipping Josh Hart who's wide open. Now he's got to shoot, slipping out of that screen with the ball coming from

his side as he's running to his side. It's just a difficult type of shots, very different than a pick and pop where he can just linger around the top of the key while the center is sinking way down into the paint. And it's more the pass is coming more for the front, and he's got all day to look at it. Right, there are two potential problems. Josh Hart happens to be shooting extremely well on open threes in the playoffs. He's twelve for twenty to be exact,

that's sixty percent. He has been specifically torching teams by popping and pick and roll, and he has torched the Pacers this year twenty two points per game, despite shooting just seventeen percent from three in those three games. How offensive rebounding, he gets two point three offensive rebounds per game against the Pacers two point one in the playoffs last year. That two point three numbers from the regular

season this year. Driving closeouts as well, that patent did transition push rae'l just get his shoulder into your body and finish at the rim. But this matchup is different. As we mentioned in popping against Porzingis Haliburton has been very good in this playoff runt at hedging and recovering hands up where like as he throws the hedge over a year, he gets out with his hands up to force you to throw the pass over the top of his hands. It gives him longer time to recover and

then he just needs to get a hand up. And similarly, Josh Hart has dropped in this postseason from sixty percent to thirty one percent on catch and shoot jump shots when he's just contested. I'm less worried about the shooting with Josh Hart and the Haliburton matchup than just the athletic Force. And we talked about this earlier with Aaron Nesmith. If he would have ended up being guarded by Brunson, he could have done a ton of damage with that

sort of thing. Josh Hart could do a lot of damage to Tyrese Haliburton in this series on the glass, attacking downhill, off of closeouts and in transition. So let's keep an eye on that. Miles Turner on Kat as aforementioned the funner version of this matchup, where Turner's a better defender and Kat's a better offensive player. Kat porched the Pacers this year thirty points and twelve assists per game, fifty seven percent from the field, forty seven percent from

three to eighty nine percent from the foul line. He did a lot of damage as a shooter, picking and popping trailing threes in transition just spacing the floor on the weak side. But he did also do a lot of damage just going one on one at Miles Turner and Thomas Bryant. He had one of his best dunks this year driving out of the left orner against Thomas Bryant.

He's able to draw multiple fouls on Miles Turner by either beating him cleanly off the dribble or by like faking and dislodging him and then getting like stepping through to draw some contact. As a group, the Pacers will need to be much better. Turner's got to be better on an island, and they've got to rotate better to make sure that he doesn't get the types of quality threes that he was getting in all of the Knicks

actions during the regular season. In many ways, Cat is the key to the series on both ends of the floor. He was the guy who killed the Pacers defense all season. He was also the guy who will be their breaking point when the Pacers are trying to score. He could be the thing that drives success and failure on either end, so how well he performs will be a big swing factor in this series. Keys for the Pacers ball pressure to wear and tear the knicks down in hopes of

having that fatigue benefit them later in the series. Sharp close outs again Josh Hart, Ojan and Obi and mckel bridges all plummet as shooting when they're contested and then rotating to towns to prevent him from getting those clean three point shot looks. The benches between these two teams are very different. All five Nick starters play over thirty five minutes per game in the postseason. McHale and Og

average over forty minutes per game. There is not a single pacer who has averaged over thirty five minutes per game in this postseason. They have a lot of weapons. TJ. McConnell's one of the best backup guards in basketball. Relentless downhill attack, beats people off the dribble cleanly more than you'll then you'll see most backup guards in the league, with a lot of short range scoring, excellent passing per thirty six minutes in this postseason run nineteen point seven

rebounds in tennisis on fifty five percent true shooting. Ben Mathern has actually been their most their highest scoring rate player per thirty six minutes, He's scoring twenty three points per game on fifty eight percent true shooting. That's higher than anyone else on the Pacers right now. It's a lot of downhill athleticism, a lot of drawing fouls, getting

into the pain using his physical tools. Obie toppens a great fit in the system as an athletic transition player and as a cutter, provides some of that weak side scoring forward work that we always talk about. Ben Sheppard will get some three and D minutes, Thomas Bryant will play center with Miles Turners off. They're super deep for

the Knicks. The only two guys who really play a substantial role for them off the bench Areduce McBride, who's not shooting super well inside the arc, but is shooting forty percent from three in the playoffs. I think he's a good player. And then Mitchell Robinson, who as a bench big and as a two guy who will play like two big looks alongside Kat just a dominant defender and rebounder on both ends of the flour. Obviously, no question here that overall depth favors Indiana, in that bench

scoring favors Indiana. My prediction, as I mentioned earlier, I view this series as roughly a coin flip. I think the Pacers are slightly better, but I think the Knicks have home court advantage and that matters. Although it's worth mentioning at least before we move on, the Pacers and the Knicks have both been excellent on the road in these playoffs. The Knicks are five and one on the

road and the Pacers are four and one. What actually solidified my pick was Game one of the Bucks series in Game one of the Cavs series, two games that the Pacers took double digit leads in the first quarter. The first one you could explain away by just saying it's the Bucks. They were a mediocre team whatever, right, The Calves are not even without Darius Garland. They're not bad. They won sixty four games this year. They just looked

completely caught off guard by Indiana's offense. Cut to shreds to start that game, leaving constant easy openings. The Pacers were relentless attacking them. They got punched in the face in that way. It reminded me of the Warriors in their heyday. They played just such a different style that most teams. There's an adjustment period, a period where you could drop a game or two before you even really find your bearings and kind of figure out how you're

supposed to guard this team. So I think the Pacers a high risk to steal Game one. Would that be in the case, I think they'd win Game three and four at home and then close the series off in six. I think they catch the Knicks off guard, punch him in the mouth, and then the Knicks are constantly trying to make up ground throughout the series, but then they lose home court and then wear and tear plays a role towards the tail end of the series because of

the Pacers depth. I think that's how the Pacers end up getting this thing done in six games. But this is gonna be incredible, and I absolutely think the Knicks can win. Predictions don't mean I think the other team sucks. It just means I think it's less likely. As always, there's a way for the Knicks to win this series. Here's what I think it would look like. It starts with McHale Bridges doing a great job on Tyre's Halliburton, playing him into some of those passive stretches that we

talked about from the Cavs series. It extends to mkale Og and Josh shooting better on spot up threes than Indie's role players, and it ends with close games where Jalen Brunson out plays Tyre's Haliburton down the stretch and swings the series towards New York. It absolutely can happen. I just think the Pacers are a slightly better team that are slightly more likely to get the job done. All right, guys, As always, I appreciate you guys for supporting the show. That is all we have for today.

We will be going with Colin after the game. We will have our live show about an hour after I finish after the game finishes, so I can finish recording with Colin first. Just keep put, Just pay attention to my Twitter feed and I'll tweet out the link when we actually go live, but play on about That'll be around that like four pm hour Pacific standard time when we end up going live, and then we'll have our usual playback at that point. Again, I appreciate you guys,

and I will see you next time. What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume