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Happy Friday, everybody. I hope all of you guys had an incredible week and that you had a good holiday. It feels good to be back. I sincerely appreciate all of you guys who offered condolences after the passing of my grandmother in the YouTube comments. It means a lot
to me. I'm glad we were able to get out there. Specifically, Thanksgiving is the holiday I think about the most when I think about my grandmother, because my family lives out here in Tucson, my mom and dad, but both of their families are in the Dallas Fort Worth area, and so when we were kids, we went to Texas every single year for Thanksgiving, sometimes driving sixteen hours if the flights were too full, right, And we had Thanksgiving at my grandma's house, and she was this amazing cook from
the Midwest. And I still have these like vivid memories of me like playing with my cousins in the yard or in the living room as my grandmother was directing traffic in the kitchen. I just hear her voice in the background. And she was this truly incredible woman and a rock for my dad's family. And so obviously it was sad for her for us all to not have
her there. But at the same time, I think we did what she would have wanted us to do, and we kind of just had a throwback timp gathering for Thanksgiving out in Texas, and so I think that was important for everybody in my family to be out there. I'm really thankful that I was able to get out there, and then we came home and we celebrated Thanksgiving with my wife's family as well. Got to have a little bit of a break. Obviously, we haven't worked since last Friday.
As you guys know, it's not just me, it's everyone behind the scenes as well that makes the show tick. And we've just been going crazy, like We've done almost seven shows a week since I got back from Japan in July. That's just the pace that we've been going. And so obviously it was important for us to take a little bit of a break, and I'm glad we were able to do so. But I'm excited to be
back and I'm excited to talk some basketball today. We're going to be hitting briefly on all six of our contenders. It's gonna be like a contender check in show today. So we had six teams in our contender list to start the season. If you remember, it was number one, the Nuggets, two Bucks, three Celtics, four Lakers, five Sons,
six Warriors. Briefly touch on all of them. Then there are five teams that I considered to be surprises here early in the season with how successful they've been we're gonna do brief brief touches on all of them as well. And then there's one of those teams that we're gonna be bumping into the contender tier to increase the size of that tier up to seven teams. So we're gonna
be hitting on eleven teams today. Then we're gonna take Saturday Sunday off, and then we'll be back Monday to get back into our power rankings and back into our usual routine as we move forward from there, you guys are the job. Before we get started, subscribe to our brand new YouTube channel. We mean a lot to me if you guys would take a second to scroll down
and hit that subscribe button. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight, follow me on Twitter at underscore json lt for video analysis as well as showing announcements. And then, last but not least, don't forget to keep dropping mailback questions in the YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them at the end of our shows. All right, let's talk some basketball, all right, Before we get to our contenders, I want to take
a quick look at these five surprises. There are five teams this year that I think have exceeded expectations in a big way. The Minnesota Twerwolves at eleven and three, the Oklahoma City Thunder at eleven and four, the Magic at ten and five, the Mavericks at ten and five, and then the Sixers after the hard and trade. Having them at ten and five, I would say is a little bit of surprise this early in the season as well. Now, four of those five teams are teams that I talked
about before the season. I talked about the Timberwolves as being a team I expected to be better this year. Same for OKC, same for Orlando, same for Dallas. That said, even within that context, I think all four of those teams are ahead of where I even expected them to be at this point. So I want to take brief touches on all five of those teams, and then one of those teams I'm going to be moving into our contender tier, and that team is the first team on
that list, the Minnesota Timberwolves. So they still have the best defense in the league by defensive rating, allowing just one hundred and six point two points per one hundred possessions. Anthony Edwards has cooled off a little bit in terms of efficiency from where he was to start the year, but that was kind of to be expected because he was hitting his shot, his pull jump shot in particular, at just a preposterous rate to start the year, and
so THELF was inevitable. But it hasn't really mattered. They've kept winning. Carl Towns has been a huge bright spot the you know, Carl Town's was one of the guys before the season that I talked about is kind of the odd man out because if you look at this group as a identity, it's this combination of perimeter defense
and rim protection rights. It's what Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson and Nikhil Alexander Walker and all these guys are capable of on the perimeter anchored by Rudy Gobert at the rim, and when you put Kat in there at the for it kind of fundamentally changes the overall foot speed of the lineup and what they're capable of in rotation and a bunch of different things. Right, But it's worked really well for two reasons in my opinion.
First of all, he's been much needed for them on the offensive end, of the floor as a shot creator, especially in static situations when the defense is loaded up on him. In fact, he's run ninety five post ups and ISOs this year, and including passes, that's amounted to one hundred and two points, which is very good. Anytime you're getting over a point per possession in static half court shot creation, that's a legitimate boost to any offense
when you're trying to break a defense down right. But most importantly, his defensive effort, not just on not just in like help side situations, but also on the glass as well, has been better than where it was in recent years. He's been good as a low man, offering help at the rim and cleaning up the defensive glasses. His deflections are up, his steels are up, his blocks are up, his defensive rebounds are up. Like he just all in all has been more active on that side
of the floor. And so when you combine him being kind of like a good offensive number two next to Anthony Edwards with him just being better defensively and on the glass than we're accustomed to seeing, it's actually made him a very useful part of this team. He's hitting fifty seven percent in effective field goal percentage on catch and shoot jump shots. He's consistently drawing double teams on post ups than the posts where he's been most effective.
He's been a little bless effective in ISO, but he's been pretty good there as well. And you know, that
kind of thing is just it's still early. I'm really curious to see where we're at with the Cat dynamic when we get closer to the trade deadline, because I think, like all signs still point to him as being like the one guy that kind of doesn't necessarily make sense within the identity of the team, But if he keeps defending like this and he keeps being a productive offensive player, I mean, it just makes sense to keep him there
as that number four next to Ruby Gobert. Right, Jada McDaniels has been out with this Grade one ankle spraining. We're expecting to see him back within a week or two. Nas Reid is still giving them consistent double figure production off the bench, and they're starting to force more turnovers. If you guys remember at the beginning of the season that was my one critique in their defense is that with as good as they are on the ball, they should be more disruptive than they are, but in recent
weeks they've been better. Now they're all the way up to tenth in opponent turnovers per one hundred possessions. Now I am moving the Timberwolves into that top tier of contenders. Here's why number one, This defense is real. It's not Foogle's goal. This is a real, top tier, championship level defense. They are nearly perfect in terms of defensive personnel. They don't have point of attack defenders, but they have multiple
different kinds of point of attack defenders. You could literally take Nikhil Alexander Walker, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Kyle Anderson and they all kind of slot into a different type of position group. Right, Like Anthony Edwards is a guard defender, but he also is so damn strong and has such a low center of gravity, and as such top tier athlete, he can guard bigger wings. We've seen
him have success on bigger Star wings this year. Right, Nikhil Alexander Walker is more of a traditional guard defender, a little slider, but he's good navigating screens and has tons of length. Then you have Jaden McDaniels, who's your stereotypical perimeter wing and then you have Kyle Anderson, who's your stereotypical bigger wing, right, and so they kind of
have a body for everybody, you know. And then even when we look in the front court, as you look into like athletic front court players, Rudy Gobert is, you know, arguably one of the very best options you could have in a situation like that when you get into the bigger bodies and stuff like we saw in the Nuggets game. They've even been able to use Karl Anthony Towns. Essentially is that big, you know, that fire hydrant version of the post defender that can kind of prevent bullyball plays
from happening. And when you slot Rudy Gobert behind him as a help defender, that can be impactful. So in terms of defensive personnel and versatility, I don't think there's a team right now that marches out the type of personnel that they put out there. And so the defense is real that's not going anywhere, and I think that's a big indicator of the fact that this team has championship potential because they flat out have a championship defense and that is not going anywhere on any given night.
And if you want to beat this team four times out of seven, you're going to have to contend with what they're capable of on the defensive end of the floor. They are also thriving in a very difficult schedule. The opponent winning percentage from Minnesota is fifty five percent, that's the third highest in the league. And they're seven to two versus teams that are five hundred or better, which is the best record in the league against teams that
are five hundred or better. So again, like just in terms of what they've accomplished within the scope of this regular season so far, they are passing every test along the way. And then lastly, the biggest thing that stands out to me on film, and this has been for years, but it's even more so this year. And when you couple that with what this defense is capable of capable of, it gets me excited. And that is the simple fact that nobody can stop Anthony Edwards from getting to his spots.
His ability to as an athlete get to spots makes it so that defenders have to give him space, which is effectively conceding to him high quality pull up jump shots that he's been hitting at a high rate in the playoffs, right, And so what I imagine is this incredible defense that can throw you into your worst tendencies, while on the other end of the floor, Anthony Edwards is gonna get great looks and it's just a question of whether he can make enough pull up jump shots
or if he can make enough reads when the defense loads up on him, and there's still is occasional possessions. There's a play. There was a play the other day in the Sixers game when they played the Sixers without Embiid where he drove down into the lane and tried to attack three Sixers in the paint when Shake Milton was completely unguarded on the right wing and he missed that kickout. And I'm like, Okay, these are little things you can do that will make the game easier for you.
Just make that pass because you're just gonna get the ball next possession, and then that dude won't help as much and then you'll have more opportunity to work, right, And like, even then, though, he's doing better with that stuff than he did in years past, and so like, I just see all signs pointing to the fact that this team is every bit as good even within the playoff context as the teams that are in that championship tier, and so I think they belong there for the time being.
The second team on our Surprises list at eleven and four is the Oklahoma City Thunder. You're seeing a lot of the outstanding, you know, offensive potential of this team with all their ball handling, shooting and passing in their five out attack right like you're seeing the potential of the the potential of the defense anchored by excellent perimeter defenders.
When you've got lou Doord out there, Jalen Williams and Shake Kills of Alexander with all that length and athleticism and size on the perimeter, they can cause a lot of problem for teams at the point of attack, right And then we've even seen that with Keason Wallace as an additional perimeter defender off the bench, and so lots of exciting stuff there. They're protecting the paint well. Chet Holmgren has helped them anchor down a good paint defense,
which they did not have last year. They are eighth in opponents points in the paint per one hundred possessions. But the reason why I don't have super high expectations for this team in the big picture is they're still
too small on that front line. They're twenty ninth in defensive rebounding, and again I still think that ideally you need to have a really big forward slotted next to chet Holmgren to physically hold up against some of the bigger, stronger teams that you have to contend with at the top of both conferences. Now, question is why are they still winning despite being twenty ninth and rebounding easy schedule. The Thunder have an opponent winning percentage of forty seven
point nine percent. That is one of the somewhere in the bottom ten I can't remember exactly where. And they've played eight games against blow five hundred teams and they're seven in one of those games. So that's given them enough on the in the standing, so to speak. But we've seen consistently when they've run into better teams, specifically teams with bigger front lines, that they've struggled to contend physically.
Max is the Dallas Mavericks a ten and five same type of thing as the Thunder, Right, Like, you're seeing the incredible just how difficult it is to guard this team when they spread you out and all their top tier ball handling, and they're shooting better than you've expected. They're defending a little better than I expected them to this year, but they're still too small and and that to me, is going to continue to cause problems as they play better teams. They played seven teams that are
five hundred or better at this point. They're just three and four in those matchups, and they were down two against the Lakers until that Kyrie Irving jumps out. Otherwise they'd be two and five against teams that are five hundred are better. So a lot to be excited about with Dallas. They're better than where I expected them to be in the standings at this point. But more or less, they're demonstrating what I expected to this point, which is they are a lot better than they were last year.
And they're certainly gonna have a puncher's chance to beat anybody in any one series. It's just in order to win four of them, to beat great teams four times in a row, four out of seven times, I'm a little worried about that. Overall personnel shortcoming in the front court in terms of size and athleticism, the Dallas, excuse me, the Orlando Magic ten to five, coming off a huge win over Denver, albeit without Jamal Murray. Their third in defense,
fifth and offensive rebounding. They're huge, and they're athletic, and they're a royal pain in the ass to deal with in the regular season because of what they do to you at the point of attack, because of their overall size on the front line, because of how relentless they are attacking the offensive glass, because of how relentless they are in transition. They're just a difficult team to deal with. A young and big and athletic, right, they just really
struggle to score in the half court. Only the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls, Memphis Grizzlies, and Portland Trail Blazers have scored worse in the half court according to Cleaning the Glass. So that's the big thing holding me back from taking them, like really seriously as a contender, right but obviously having a ton of success this season. They were a team that I expected to go up the level this year and to make the playoffs, and it
looks like they're on track to do so. Pallo in his last eleven games twenty two points seven rebounds and four assists with two stocks on fifty percent from the field and fifty one percent from three, So really encouraging play from him as well. The three point shooting in particular is exciting because that was one of the big knocks on him coming into the draft. Right. And then lastly the Philadelphia seventy six Ers again ten and five, and the Sixers were, you know, traditionally a good team.
That said, without James Harden, I think it's a little bit of a surprise. Now. Some of it is is their schedule has been a little light, and as they've gone into a tougher schedule, they've looked a little bit more limited, right, Like, they've lost four of their last six. They beat the Hawks and Nets in that span, and they lost to Indy, Boston, Cleveland and Minnesota, four really
good teams. Right, So again to me, it's firepower issue. Defensively, they've regressed a little bit over the course the last couple of weeks, not as good at the point of attack, not as good in rotation in particular, But overall, this is gonna be something you see consistently throughout this season, is they're gonna be one of those teams is we'll coach and as good players, but they just lack that little bit of extra offensive firepower to be able to
beat the best of the best. And that's going to be something I think we continue to see throughout the season. That said, I think a trade, the right trade, could go a long way towards propelling them into the contender tier at some point during the season. All right, moving on to our list of contenders. So again, this is going to be very very different than my power rankings. Power rankings are very much just within the scope of
the regular season. This is my list of contenders, ranked in order of how likely I think they are just to win the championship. So this is strictly within the postseason context. And again, as you guys know, I am not mister overreact to regular season basketball, never really have been, so not a lot of changes. As a matter of fact, we've added one new team, but everyone else is in
the same order, except or I flipped two teams. And so again that's just a good indicator to you guys of the fact that, like, even just through fifteen regular season games, I'm not ready to redefine completely the way that I view some of these teams that said, as we go through the list, I'm gonna give brief touches on all of them and just talk about how they've been playing as of late. All Right, so number seven on this list the Golden State Warriors. It's seven and nine.
So the obvious question is, Jason, the Warriors are below five hundred, they've lost seven of their last eight games, how in the world would you consider them to be a contender. And the answer is really simple. Things have gone horribly, horribly wrong and they're seven and nine. So no, I'm not going to freak out. Now. I've seen a lot of freak out from Warriors fans. A lot of people calling for curR to be fired, which is ridiculous,
He's the second best coach in the NBA. A lot of people saying that massive trades need to be made, and Klay Thompson should be traded, and Andrew Wigans should be traded. Basically everybody that's not Steph Curry should be traded. Right, I've just seen all sorts of negativity. Now here are four reasons why every single Warriors fan needs to just take a deep breath and relax. Number One, Steph hurt his knee and missed two games, and they were both losses.
So they're actually seven and seven when their best player plays. Number two, Draymond Green, has barely played. The Warriors have played seven hundred and seventy three minutes this year. Draymond has only played two hundred, and he's your defensive anchor. He's probably your second or third best player, depending on who you ask. With how poorly Wiggins has been playing, he's probably your second best player. Right, So your second or third best player overall has missed basically three fourths
of the season. That's a huge punch to the gut. Right third, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins will both play much much better over the course of the season. Through thirteen games, So, going into the Oklahoma City game, through thirteen games, neither one of them had logged a single twenty point game. I saw that stat the other day and I was completely mind blown. But in their last three games they've done it three times. So Klay Thompson
is back to back twenty point games. They're clearly trending in the right direction. And then, lastly, this schedule will get a lot easier. The Warriors' opponents so far this season have won fifty seven percent of their games, which is by far the highest market in the league. They've played, by far the hardest schedule. They've played one below five hundred team all season. It was the Detroit Pistons and they beat him. So again. Steph missed two games, so
that's two losses. Draymond Green's missed three fourths of the season. Clay Thompson and Injrew Wiggins have played like crap. And you've played an impossible schedule and you're still seven to nine. So everybody just relax and take a deep breath. What if I always said about good and bad stretches in the NBA. Good stretches typically are a confluence of getting your guys healthy and playing a lighter schedule. Whenever you win eight, nine, ten games in a row, that's what happens.
Nobody just goes on the road and beats the Cells and beats the Bucks, and then beats the Sixers and then beat like No one just rips off winning streaks against all the best teams in the league. No one does. Doesn't happen. Win streaks are almost always lighter schedule, good health, luck. Bad stretches like when you lose seven out of eight, they're usually bad health, luck, tough schedule, and Steph miss time and Draymond's been missing time, and you've played really
tough games, and some other guys aren't playing well. They lost some games. As a matter of fact, ESPN's RPI, which is basically just like the standings ranked based on
strength of schedule, has them at ninth right now. So yeah, I'm not gonna be making any giant, sweeping declarations or significant calls about the Warriors and what they're capable of in the big picture after this fifteen games or sixteen games, Like maybe in the long run, maybe we can have another conversation at the deadline, But this is the wrong time.
Now is the absolute worst time to make serious decisions about the Warriors future, because Draymond will come back from his suspension, and Klay Thompson will play better, and Andrew Wiggins will play better, and they will face a normal schedule. I think they have the second easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, So like I would imagine they're gonna rip off some wins soon and then maybe we'll see how things go. Now, again, what did I say before the season.
My biggest concern with the Warriors was offensive firepower outside of Steph. Have we seen anything this year that makes us think that they fix that problem. No, So that's why I have him down to seven. And that's why I'm not more optimistic about the team than I was to start the year. We need to see key offensive players start to play better, but there's just no reason to remove them from this tier over really bad evidence.
Just evident, Like you know what I've learned about the Nuggets over the course in the last few weeks, that they can't win the title without Jamal Murray. That's not a sweeping declaration. That's not some sort of huge surprise. I've learned about the Warriors that they can be pretty bad when they play a bunch of good teams in a row without their second or third best player and with a bunch of their key guys not playing well, it doesn't reveal anything. And so that's why I still
have them in my contender tier for right now. Number six Minnesota Timberwolves. We already discussed the main reason why I have them this low is their half court offense. Eighteenth and a half court offense, and you know, a championship run from this team would basically require Anthony Edwards to have an all time great playoff run, which is
certainly on the table. But there are better likely i should say more likely things to happen higher up on the list, which is why I have them down at number six, but in the contender tier where I didn't have them to start the year. Number five the Phoenix Suns. The start has not been super encouraging in my opinion nine and six. They are seventh in offense, but they've played the second easiest schedule in the NBA so far.
Sun's opponents have just a forty four percent winning percentage, just one win in five tries against teams that are five hundred or better, and their defense is tailing off. Their twenty seventh in their last five games and they've dropped to twentieth for the season, and then also for the season, they're twenty sixth in defensive rebounding, so a lot of concerns on that front, right, But once again, not a lot of this is relevant to the potential
playoff sealing of this team. Their big three is yet to play a single minute together. Bradley Beal had an aggravation of his back injury, it repairs to be potentially even getting worse. So but they shout him down for like three weeks. My guess is they're gonna take a sweet time getting back, which is smart. Devin Booker and KD have shared the floor for just five of their fifteen games and just one hundred and eight minutes out of the seven hundred and thirty five minutes the Sons
have played. And in those minutes, they're killing people. They're outscoring teams by twenty one point four points per one hundred possessions. The defense is okay and the offense is off the charts good. Those two are scoring together one hundred and thirty four points per one hundred possessions as a team. That's so like, I'm not again with this particular team. Once again, we have to think within the big picture of what this team is gonna look like
in May. And in May, they very well could possibly have Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on the floor together, which has demonstrated to be a different beast than some of the stuff that we've seen in recent weeks. Right, So don't overreact to that. Eric Gordon has been really good for them, and likely in all likelihood, I think he's going to be like your fifth guy alongside the big three in Nurkic. That's been kind of the question early in the season, who's going to be that fifth guy.
Eric Gordon's giving them reliable spot up shooting, reliable production, and he's a better defensive option and more virtatle defensive option with his ability to switch on to bigger players than some of the other guys they have in that lineup.
So right now, I think in the big picture, there's still a lot of potential there, but I haven't seen anything that that would push me to believe that they should be higher on this list based simply on the fact that they're not rebounding and they're not defending as well as they need to win at this point in the season. Now, again, we saw at the start of the season they did defend it at a much higher level that to me as an indicator of what this
team is capable of. Right Also, that Minnesota game in particular, they did an excellent job defensively in that game. They took an elite defense in Minnesota and spaced them out
and got a lot of easy shots. They looked pretty unguardable on offense in that game, so a lot there are enough indicators kind of mixed in in that nine and six stretch, despite the week schedule, despite the struggles against good teams for me to especially given the return of Bradley Beal in the long run and how good the team has been with KD and Devin Booker, to not write this team off and so again you're not gonna get overreactions out of me from regular season basketball.
I still have them as a top five contender at this point in the season. Number four. The Los Angeles Lakers still have them at four. They had a disappointing loss to Dallas the other night on the tail end of a back to back. Also their third game in four nights played a significant role in my opinion. They're also missing their two best point of attack defenders for
that game. If you're gonna play Dallas, you really want your point of attack defenders, and Jared Vanderbilt and Cam Reddish, who have been the two best point of attack defenders for the Lakers to start the season, miss the game. So obviously tough handed cards, but they still had a chance late and ended up losing on that Kyrie Irving game winner, but they are playing some solid basketball, like the Lakers have won six of their last eight games.
Some similarities to what I was talking about in terms of good and bad basketball, like ruiy Hachimura coming back really helped Anthony Davis missed some time he came back. They're playing some easier opponents in this stretch whilst the wins start coming right. So again, that's kind of the natural pathway of the regular season that we need to
get used to. They are third in defensive rating and sixth in net rating over their last eight games, have a couple of quality wins in there as well, against Phoenix and against Houston. They are up to nine and seven for the season. They are up to ninth in defensive rating for the season, which I think is encouraging, and when you consider how poor the point of attack defense has been with Jared Vanderbilt being out, for them to be at ninth and defensive rating is super super encouraging.
They are slowly but surely making progress in a bunch of key areas, but they still have a long way to go. They've played a pretty tough schedule, but they haven't fared well against the bad teams. Eleven of their sixteen games against have been against teams that are five hundred or better, but they're just four and seven in
those games. And it's been a pretty consistent theme, like what you saw in that Dallas game, with exception of the Houston game, which was the one time where like from start to finish, they looked competitive in a game against a good team. Outside of that, it's been the
same thing. They come out and get slacked for three quarters, and they look up and they're down like fifteen to twenty points, and then they either lose by twenty like they did against Orlando or against Sacramento, or they have this hillacious effort in the late third fourth quarter to come back and make it a really close game. And they've won a lot of those games, like most of their wins have looked like that. But you know, like
that Dallas game, sometimes it goes the other way. Sometimes they fight all the way back and they lose, like they did to Dallas. Sometimes they fight all the way back and they lose like they did to the Kings earlier in the season. And so that's been kind of their mo at this point is whenever they play a good team, they come out laxa daisical, they come out low energy, they don't play with a lot of force.
They find themselves down big, and then they just lock in and play this crazy, frightening defense, and all of a sudden, it's like, holy shit, Lebron James and Anthony Davis with with their perimeter players playing hard is actually kind of a pain in the ass to deal with, and they start to have some success. But I think I think it's a bad trend for this Lakers team that they're not taking the beginnings of games particularly seriously.
This has been again we're not talking like two or three times, like we've had almost ten games this year where the Lakers have played bizarre basketball for two or three quarters and then suddenly they lock in in the second half and next thing you know, you're playing a tight game in crunch time. And so that's been kind of the identity of the team here. Early they're giving up a lot of wide open threes. Be part of that as their point of attack defense, they're losing shooters
off ball. It's a big example of that at the end of the Dallas game when Austin Reeves so to his credit, owned it after the game, but dug down on Luca when when Torre and Prince had him kind of sort of contained and gave up a wide open catch and shoot three to Kyrie Irving. That's been an issue, but Jared Vanderbilt coming back should help. Cam Reddish has been pretty solid as a point of attach defender. Hopefully he's growing injury doesn't keep him out too long. The
rebounding is improving. They are seventy two percent in defensive rebounding percentage over their last eight games, which ranks twelfth in the NBA. And again, the one thing that makes me super optimistic about this team compared to last year is Lebron James just looks incredible. And it's not about the statistics, because I know the statistics are not, you know, incredibly stand out statistics compared to what we've seen in
recent years. But I think this version of Lebron James is better than any version of Lebron we saw in each of the last two seasons in terms of overall winning impact. His command of the game has just at a much much higher level than it was in the last couple of years. I think that that's incredibly encouraging for this team's potential playoff ceiling. And the stats have
been pretty impressive last thirteen games. Twenty seven points, eight rebounds, and seven assists for Lebron in thirteen games on fifty eight percent of the from the field and forty four percent from the three point line. That's incredible. He's been especially great in clutch situations. He made a bad read at the end of that MAVs game that Lobb to ad. Had he thrown it a little bit higher, he might
have had a chance, but a higher percentage played. In my opinion, is that right shoulder fade that I keep begging him to take. He had Kyrie Irving. It's a size mismatch, he had space. Take that little right shoulder fade. That's a shot that you can make. You've been shooting jump shots really well this season, So again, that was not his best decision. But for the most part this season, he's been incredible in the clutch. He was incredible in
the clutch before that play. So, like, I don't think it's much worth overreacting to, and I think in general, second guessing Lebron's crunch time decision making is just stupid. He still has the most clutch field goals made in the league with fifteen, shooting sixty five percent from the field in clutch situations, which is outrageous. His jump shot in general this season is awesome. He's been one of the best jump shooters in the league. To start this year.
A Lebron James jump shot has been worth one point one point eight points per shot. Out of fifty nine players in the NBA to attempt at least a hundred jump shots, that ranks fifth. So Lebron's jump shot and how good he's been in crunch time and just how good he's been in general is a huge encouraging note. Because a lot of this other stuff is fixable. Jared Vanderbilt will come back. This team is positioned to be able to make a trade to upgrade their point of
attack defense. Anthony Davis is playing like shit on the offensive end of the floor since his injury, so like a lot of other stuff is gonna erectify itself. Anthony Davis thing is clearly still being bothered by his hip injury. Before the injury, he scored twenty six points or more in five consecutive games. Since the injury, he failed to score at least twenty six points in six of the nine games, so clearly is dealing with that. Kind of
looked like he was coming out of it there. He had twenty seven against Houston, in the twenty six against Utah, but then third game in four nights dealing with an injury. You're gonna have a bad night in there. Ten points against Dallas, right, One thing with him just ten for thirty seven on jump shots this year at zero points six to two points per jump shot. Out of the two hundred and seventeen players in the NBA to log at least thirty five jump shots, he ranks two hundred
and fifteenth. Only A sar Thompson and Theo Maladan are behind him. So that obviously is concerning because he's getting a lot of these like and he got a couple of them late against Dallas. He's like easy pocket passes for these like twelve foot jump shots and he just can't make them, and he has to make that shot. It's just so important for your roleman to be a threat there in the middle of the floor in order for anything to work and pick and roll, and he
just hasn't been doing his part there. So Hopefully he'll get it together, but I think the Lakers will continue to improve over the course of the coming month. Number three the Milwaukee Bucks. This is my one big switch on this list, besides moving to the Timberwolves on board. I have the Bucks at third in the Celtics at second,
and I'll explain why in a minute. A big picture for Milwaukee ten and five, fifth in offense, twenty second in defense, eighth in defensive rebounding, four and four against teams that are five hundred are better. Nothing that's insanely concerning there. Obviously, the defense has to get better, but we have a feeling they will. Right really not a bad place to be considering the newness of the roster construction.
Right Like, Dame has started to play a little better, but he still hasn't quite figured out where he fits in offensively with his team. Still isn't hitting his pull up jump shot at the rate that he did last year. I still think they need to upgrade the two spot. Molik Beasley's been shooting the shit out of the basketball, shooting way better than he did in a Laker jersey.
But at the same time, I think defensively and from an athleticism standpoint, you need something a little bit more in that position, and he's better coming off the bench. Giannis has been better from the perimeter. That's exciting is four for twelve on catch and shoot threes this year. That's a point per shot, so if that's exciting. In general, he's been better outside of the restricted area. He shot nineteen hooks this year. That's already more than half as
many as he took all year last year. He took thirty seven all year last year. Now he was only eight for nineteen, which is just forty two percent. But if he can just get that up to fifty percent and keep leaning on that shot a little more frequently, I think that's going to be a huge weapon for him in the playoffs. Bobby Portis has been playing really well over this recent stretch. He's giving him like a what I think about fourteen and eight a game coming
off the bench, but dropping them behind Boston. And here's why. They simply have way more that needs to go right in order for them to get out of the Eastern Conference in my opinion, right like Dame has to consistently get back to where he was last year, and he just hasn't been even in this five and one stretch. Twenty five points per game on forty percent from the field in thirty six percent from three. That's good, but
that's not Dame, right. Chris Middleton, his knee has to hold up long enough for him to get into a groove. They're limiting his minutes a lot, but that the high firepower that we saw from Chris Middleton in the playoffs just isn't there. He hasn't had a single twenty point game yet this season. They need to anchor their perimeter defense with an upgrade at the two spots. So that has to get That has to be a hit at some point, and they straight up cannot afford an injury
to any of their core players. Like if Dame or Chris or Giannis or go down, they're so weak in those position groups that they're basically screwed. That's just not the case with Boston. Like, first of all, for the Dame thing, Jason Tatum's been so good this season that I'm not even sure there's as much of a gap
as we're used to seeing in a playoff series. In overall superstar play between Jason Tatum and whoever the other guy is that gap has been shrinking every year and it very well might be non existent at this point, right, So, like that's part of it. They don't need to make a trade to anchor any sort of position group. They can afford an injury basically to anybody, but Jason Tatum, Like, if they lose one of the guards, they're still a
championship contender. If they lose Porzingis, there's still a championship contender. If they lose Horford, there's still a championship contender. They lose Brown, they're still a championship contender. It's they have so much more margin for error. They're a little thin on the front line, but you still would need to see both of those guys to get get hurt for them to be in any real trouble. Right, So, like
they're just in they're just in a better spot. And beyond all of that, they're just flat out playing better basketball right now than Milwaukee. And so to me, like, and look, we're gonna reevaluate this over the course of the season, and we'll see how we feel when we
get to the playoffs. But at this point, doesn't Boston just feel like it's safer bet even if we all agree that if all those things go well, if Chris Middleton gets back to twenty twenty one form, if Damian Lillard gets back to last year's form, if they anchor that two guard spot, if they stay healthy throughout the season, and they were going into a series against Boston, like,
do I think they could beat Boston? Absolutely might even pick them, But the odds of all that stuff going right, it just is a longer shot than Boston's version of that story right, And so for me, I just think, like again, we'll make a call when we get closer, But for right now, I've seen enough to within my contender tier move Boston past Milwaukee for the time being. Boston twelve and three, despite playing the fifth toughest schedule in the league so far, There's sixth and offense second
in defense. They got revenge on the Sixers last week. They beat up the Bucks the other night. I watched that game this morning. They look very clearly like the best team in the Eastern Conference. They beat They beat Milwaukee in the way that I expected them to beat Milwaukee, right, Like Drew Holliday and Derek White just hounding Damian Lillard all over the floor, forcing him into extremely difficult shots.
Like again, Dame can make difficult shots, but what makes him Dame is he can also generate a lot of really easy ones and hit those at a high rate. And Boston's got the point of attack defense to really, really really make Dame work right, And that goes a long way. You saw on the other end of the floor of their ability to just space out Milwaukee and you know, punish. Porzingis had a big game in this
particular game. Every single time Jannis or Brook Lopez or or Bobby Portis would help off of Chris Tops Porzingis, he's open at the three point line. It's not just shooting he's making he's making shots that made a big one in the fourth quarter, but it's also driving those closeouts and getting into the lane and knocking down shots like that. Porzingis piece just goes a long way towards their ability to really space the Bucks out. Tatum was
matchup hunting the smaller Milwaukee guards and having success. And I even thought Tatum held up pretty well guarding Giannis on a couple of specific possessions. He's just a lot bigger and stronger than he used to be. And he can actually hold up physically up against Giannis in a better way than he used to be able to. Right now, still some of the same stuff, right, Like in that late first quarter run where Milwaukee kind of made it
a game. You see, it's like Derek White and Drew Holliday take like three transition threes and six possessions, and you're like why, Like why? You know, that's the curse with the Celtics team is they're so damn good that they sometimes settle for shots that are not great shots. You know, Doris Burke, I thought in the broadcast, did a really nice job explaining the difference between a good shot and a great shot. Right, I'll give you an example.
Like I play pick up basketball at Tucson, Arizona. There's a good amount of talent here, but it's not like as talented as when I lived in Phoenix or in Charlotte, Right, and so like, I'm big and more athletic than most of the players I go against. Right, and so like, I can dribble up the floor and shoot a pull up three every time I want, and I could probably hit it at a decent percentage because I can get good separation. But like, does that mean that's what I
should do every time? Probably not. I'ld probably use that as a fallback, right, Like I should probably hunt easier shots along the way and then use that as kind of a counter, right. And the Celtics have a tendency to fall victim to their own talent in a lot of different ways, where like they're so much better down the roster than other teams that like, you've got guys that are dribbling up the floor and it's like, man,
he's kind of backpedaling on me. And I have a decent look here, and I practice this shot, I can hit this and it'll be Derek White rising up into a pull up three. And it's like Boston's at their best when they drive and kick for fantastic shots, for wide open catch and shoot threes in for layups, and again like those the tough shot making piece that's a
ceiling razor, but it should never be your foundation. And so there's a little bit of that stuff there, but overall it's just their marching for error is so massive as a virtue of their big talent advantage that they have and their overall depth and ability to build functional basketball lineups. Even when core players are out of the lineup, like they're just they're just really freaking good, for lack of a better term, And I think at this point
they're very clearly the best team in the Eastern Conference. Again, Jason Tatum playing like a bona fide superstar goes such a long way towards alleviating some of the other concerns surrounding that team and all of the you know takes that we had this summer about half court shot creation and whether or not Dame could push the team over the top against Boston. It's like, none of that really matters if Jason Tatum becomes that guy, and I'm still seeing a ton from him that is super encouraging on
that front. And we LA's not at least the Denver Nuggets ten and five, ninth in offense, tenth in defense, still so still defending at a high level. Just four and four since the Jamal Murray injury. Reggie Jackson's done an okay job filling in for him fourteen points per game, forty eight percent from the field, thirty seven percent from three. Jokic has been missing his three point shot, a big one He's taken high volumes, taking over five of them
a game over this span. That's been a big way that he's been trying to bolster the scoring without Jamal Murray in the lineup. But yeah, I remember he's hitting him close to fifty percent in the playoffs and he's been hitting about a fourth of them in this span, and that's kind of a long way towards kind of limiting their offensive potential without Jamal Murray in there. But what does this recent stretch tell us Nothing, really doesn't
really tell us anything. They can't win without Jamal Murray, like a championship, of course not. There's not a team in this league that can lose their second best player and win the championship, except for maybe the Boston Celtics. And it's because they've got six guys that are really, really really good, right, So, Like, I don't really think that says much. And in the big picture, their core five players still look every bit is good, if not
better than they did last year. Christian Brown has been awesome and has provided a lot of that like athletic force that Bruce Brown did last year. Their bench sucks, but it did last year too, Like they're getting outscored by fourteen points per one hundre possessions without Nicole Yocic on the floor this year. They got outscored by twelve
points per one hundred possession Withoutyokic last year. So it's not really that much of a difference, right, And like again, this has been a long road trip on the road in Houston without Jamal Murray. That's a tough game to win. And they lost it on the road in New Orleans without Jamal Murray. That's a tough game to win. And they lost it on the road in Cleveland without Jamal Murray. That's a tough game to win. And they lost it on the road in Orlando without Jamal Murray. That's a
tough game to win. And they lost it tonight. They're on the road in Houston again without Jamal Murray. That's a tough game. They might lose it. That doesn't again take his deep breath, zoom out core players missing tough stretch of the schedule, probably gonna drop some games, and that's what they're doing. And even then, they've been five
hundred over this spin. So I haven't seen anything to persuade me that Denver is no longer the top tier I should even say just championship favorite that they were to start the season. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. As always, I appreciate you guys for supporting the show. We're gonna take the rest of the weekend off and we'll be back Monday with power rankings, and then we're gonna do ins and reactions and deep dives of teams as we go throughout the week. As always,
I appreciate you guys, and we'll see you then. M the volume m HM.