Hoops Tonight - Pacers-Knicks Predictions: Will Jalen Brunson & NY stay hot vs. Indiana?

in my championship rankings the Dallas Mavericks. You can get them on DraftKings right now at plus sixteen hundred. To win the title. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code hoops. That's Hops. New customers bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets instantly. That's code

hoops hops only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler or in West Virginia visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net York call eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text hope and Why to four six seven three six nine In Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of

Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas. Twenty one plus age varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See dkang dot co slash b ball for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to HOO today here at the volume heavy Sunday. Everybody. Hope all of

you guys are having an incredible weekend. Today we're doing a series preview of the two six matchup in the second round in the Eastern Conference, the New York Name hosting the Indiana Pacers. Going to break the series down from every angle, and then I've got twelve video clips for a little film session at the tail end of the show. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to a brand new YouTube channels. You don't miss

any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore jsonlt so you guys don't miss you announcements, don't forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight, and then keep dropping mail bag questions and those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk

some basketball. So the season series Pacers won two to one, kind of like many playoff previews, not a ton of useful information in terms of who played in the regular season games. Julius Randall played in the first game, Neither Julius Randall nor Ojan and Obi played in the last two games. There was a game where both Pascal Siakam and Buddy Heald played. There was a game where TODJ. Gibson played nineteen minutes. So this series will obviously look

very different from the regular season. But we did get some information about some of the coverages that we expect both teams to use, so we'll get into that a little bit, and some of the individual matchups that I

expect to see over the course of the series. Some of the metrics from the regular season, the Knicks had a one to fifteen point three offensive rating and the Pacers had a one twenty three point seven offensive rating in the three matchups, that's an eight point four point per one hundred advantage for the Indiana Pacers, the Knicks

out rebounded them badly. The Knicks had a seventy six percent defensive rebounding a defensive rebound percentage meaning seventy six percent of opponents misses they were able to corral and get out. Going the other way, the Pacers only grabbed sixty six percent of their available defensive rebounds. Big matchup in this series. We know the Knicks are the best offensive rebounding team in the league and the Pacers are

a bad defensive rebounding team. So that's gonna be a big piece in this series, and we're gonna talk about it a lot today. But there's a push and pull there because the Pacers are also an excellent transition pushing team,

so that'll be an interesting matchup. The Knicks one the points in the paint fifty four point seven to fifty three point three in the three game series, the Knicks one second chance points seventeen to eleven point three, and the Knicks one points off of turnvers eighteen to twelve

point three. The Pacers did win fast break points scored per game thirteen point seven to twelve point three, So let's start with the Knicks on offense, the Pacers are almost certainly going to put Aaron Nesmith on Jalen Brunson

from the start of the series. I expect physical ball pressure, as much full court pressure as Nie Smith can manage, given where he ends up in any transition situation might be worth having Dante DiVincenzo or Deduce McBride bring the ball up some even Josh Hart potentially if he ends up with Tyres Haliburton on which we'll talk about in a minute, just to try to save Jalen's legs as

much as possible. In ball screens where they try to bring Miles Turner up into the action, I expect, based on the film, for the Pacers to primarily run a high drop. But one of the things that Rick Carlisle does is he loves to mix up coverages. It was a big thing I noticed on tape, Like they don't go down the floor and just run a deep drop every possession or a high drop every possession, or a

hedge every possession, or a blitz every possession. They have kind of a baseline coverage, but then they'll just mix things up, so like random Turner ball screens they'll blitz random Halliburton ball screens. They'll blitz, but then they'll drop back. On the next possession, they'll have Halliburton hedge and recover on a guard guard screen. Then all of a sudden they'll have him switch. Then they'll double team out of

the switch. Sometimes I've literally seen Brunson call Halliburton into a screen to try to get him switched, and then Brunson then Haliburton randomly blitzed. So like a lot of mixed up coverages. But I do think the base coverages will be Turner ball screens, a high drop, and the base coverage that I think we'll see with Halliburton is a hedge and recover. But we'll see over the course of the series how much they're willing to switch Haliburton. Again, we did see and you guys will see on tape.

There are examples where Halliburton will switch on to Brunson and then they'll just quickly double team and then be able to rotate out of it relatively quickly. The Knicks did run a lot of guard guard screens to attack Indy. They did in a lot of cases try to avoid bringing Miles Turner into the action. Imarily focus on attacking

Indiana's guards. They do have some weak guard defenders in their rotation, but they also have a lot of speed at that position, so it's not going to be as easy as it might have appeared in the regular season when Jalen Brunston could attack you know, Ben Mathern or or Buddy Healed, like, those guys are obviously just not around anymore. Ben's hurt and Heal plays for the Sixers, so a lot of harder matchups in those guard guard screens.

Outside of Halliburton, Brunson has looked really good in this matchup in the regular season. He's averaging thirty six points per game in the regular season matchup forty nine percent from the field, thirty two percent from threes, getting to the foul line ten times per game. I think we'll see Andrew Nemhart on Dante DiVincenzo. Dante is just a total green light shooter. He's flying off of screens and pulling up. He's shooting spot up situations. He'll occasionally take

a pull up three in a ball screen. He had a really up and down series against Philly. He was just three for seventeen from three in games three, four, and five. But he was eleven for twenty two from three in games one, two, and six, and he was unbelievably good in game six. It was his best game of the series. Is big part why Deuce McBride didn't play as much. Dante played incredible on both ends of the floor. But Andrew Nemhart is gonna get that assignment again.

Big thing with him is just staying attached, pushing him into rushed shots further away from the basket. That's gonna be the key for Nemhard in that matchup. Tyres Haliburton on Josh Hart again, doing his job in the scheme. So if Brunson's calling Josh Hart into screens to try to target Halliburton and his job is to hedge and recover, he needs to hedge and recover properly. If it's to switch and then to wait, wait for the double team and then rotate out of it, that's what he's got

to do. If it's a blitz, it's all about gameplay and discipline for Tyres Haliburton. You're not expecting him to hold up on an island against Jalen Brunson. You're just expecting him to do whatever Rick Carlisle asks him to do, and then primarily whenever he's on Josh Hart, but not into getting pulled into an action. He's got to be careful about Josh Hart crashing the offensive glass. Josh has been an absolute wrecking ball in this postseason run. He's

averaging four offensive rebounds per game. He had six in Game six in Philly, So that's definitely gonna be something Tyreez is gonna have to keep an eye out on, just making sure that he tries to throw a token box out at Josh Hart every time a shot goes up. Pascal Siakam on Ojan Andobi so again, when the Knicks are on offense, o Jannobi does the majority of his

work in transition and in spot up situations. That's the vast majority of his play types that you'll see as him running his lane in transition and him spotting up in attacking closeouts. He's shooting thirty nine percent so far in the postseason on unguarded catch and shoot jumpers, and sixty three percent when he shoots that pull up mid range jumper where like he'll pump fake and kind of rip through to that foul line area and he'll raise up.

He's knocking down that shot at a really high clip, but he's only three for eleven unguarded catch and shoot jumpers. So for Siakam, it's just gonna be about making smart help and recover decisions. He's gonna be as one of the lengthier athletes on the floor, a guy that Indiana's gonna lean on to dig down into disrupt driving lanes and to help at the rim. And so he's just gonna have to kind of toe that line because if he can get a solid contest on Nie Smith, Nesmith

will probably miss. Nesmith needs to be open, and so again just kind of staying in that range where he can dig down and help but also recover out and throw a good clothes out. And also one of the things we got to remember, Oh Gina, No, he does have some slashing ability. That was how we dunked on

Joel Embiid at the end of the game. Same kind of thing when we go to the other side of the floor with aeron Nie Smith, like Aaroni Smith, same type of player, wide open catch and shoot player, can knock it down, but when it comes to like chasing him off the line, he can really slash downhill. And even though Og is more of a forward and Nemhar or excuse me, nies Smith is more of a guard, they're both kind of similar kind of catch and shoot

slashers on the wing. And so for specifically for Pascal Yakam, he's just gonna have to make sure he kind of stays attached in those help and recover situations with OG. Miles Turner on Isaiah Hartenstein, my main concern is just keeping him off the glass. He had ten offensive rebounds in two games against the Pacers this year, twenty one offensive rebounds in six games against the Sixers. And then similar kind of thing in terms of like helping and recovering.

Isaiah Hartenstein's is really good at that little left handed pop shot in the lane. He's fourteen for twenty on floaters in the Sixers series. So once again, same kind of thing with Siakam on OG. With turn Around, Hart and Seign, it's all going to be about making sure they don't get punished for helping too much, and that means quick recoveries to Heart and Sign after he contains whatever actions he's helping on. Quick recoveries for Siakam two OG whenever he is helping on any sort of action

in the lane. Keys for both teams. When the Knicks have the ball, for the Knicks, be ready to adjust quickly. Again, Rick Carlisle loves to mix up coverages. You're going to see random blitzes, random doubles. Just have to be able to adjust quickly on the fly to be able to

make sure those possessions don't turn into lost possessions. Alleviate Brunson's workload again, having Josh Hart bring the ball to the floor when he has Aliburton on him, because Haliburton's probably not going to want to pick him up full court with all of his offensive responsibilities. Early guard screen to get more favorable matchups again, especially in early offense. Closer out to half court, teams are more well likely

to throw a token switch in situations like that. So stuff like that can help Brunson get easier matchups than Nene Smith because need Smith is just a big, strong guard that can you know, we talked to after the Sixers series about that lower center of gravity screen navigating guy that kind of flatten out Brunston's drives. Nie Smith is very much that type of player. Lastly, for the Knicks attack the offensive glass relentlessly. It's one of your

biggest matchup advantages in this series. They need to capitalize on it. On the Pacers front. Most teams don't look to run against the Knicks. They were the seventh best transition frequency defense in the regular season. They just, you know, part of the problem with the way that the Knicks crash the offensive glass, teams have to be prepared for and so teams don't leak out as much. They're more willing to kind of stay back to try to clean

up the defensive glass. But I wonder if the Pacers, and again this is going to be risky, and I wouldn't start the series thinking this way, but if they need to get into a tough spot and they need to kind of mix things up, I wonder if the Pacers can look more to leak out as a counter to their offensive rebound attack, meaning like, yeah, you're gonna give it, give up some offensive rebound putbacks, but every time the ball does bounce into your hands those kick

ahead passes, you can get easy baskets and avoid New York's half court defense. I'm curious to see if the Pacers try that for stretches during the series, and then lastly protecting Tyris Haliburton. The Knicks are going to go at him on most possessions. That was a big thing I noticed in the regular season. It's all about game plan discipline for Tyres, hedging and recovering, switching and doubling, blitzing, whatever,

just has to be sharp within the game plan. Moving to the Pacers on offense, I think we'll see Dante DiVincenzo on Tyres Haliburton to start the series when he brings Isaiah Hartenstein into ball screen. So in this case, Miles Turner, I think we'll see Hartenstein at the level. I think what that means is he'll be up waiting for Tyrese as he comes off the screen. The pick and pot for Miles Turner is going to be open

and they're gonna have to close out to that. But they had a lot of practice with that in the embied series, right like the Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson spent a lot of time containing Tyrese Maxey on a coming off of a ball screen and then sprinting back to close out to Joel Embiid. That's going to be a big thing that they're going to have to do with Miles Turner, and then I also think we'll see

a lot of Duce McBride in this matchup. Douce spent almost no time on Tyres Haliburton in the regular season for whatever reason, just something I noticed on tape, but he had a lot of good reps on MAXI, and I think I think he'll have more opportunities like that in this series, especially on nights where Dante Divincenzo's not shooting the ball particularly well. But Halliburton's a master at getting the defense in rotation. He's the ultimate make the

easy read every single time kind of guy. Right. He hasn't been an elite shot maker since his hamstring injuries. Matter of fact, he's shooting just twenty seven percent on pull up jumpers in the playoffs so far, but he's been great close to the rim. He's six for eight on floaters and he's eighty one percent on overall shot attempts at the rim. So big thing for the Nickson this series I think is going to be focusing on

containing Halliburton and make him shoot longer range pull up jumpers. Right, It's almost like think of it more as like catching the ball handler as he comes off. We've talked about this in other high drop coverages, but when Hartenstein and Robinson come up to the level, they just kind of

have to keep ty Reese in front. If they can do that, even if they have to come less far out, if they can keep tyres in front and keep him out of that float range, keep him out of that layup range, I think that you have a chance to play him into less efficiency, but watch out for him off the ball though. Tyree is shooting really well on jumpers off the catch, shooting forty percent, and he's shooting

forty four percent overall in spot up situations. It's actually been his second most common play type after pick and roll. So ty Resee is getting a lot of close out opportunities. So you just got to stay attached to him off the ball. I think we'll see Jalen Brunson on Andrew

Nemhart and again Nemhard runs some second side action. He's shooting pretty well on pull up jumpers so far in the postseason, but he's below a point per possession in ball screen, so he hasn't been the most efficient guy in the world in terms of generating offense there, but he's been completely dead catch and shoot situations. He killed the bucks and catch and shoot situations, So Brunson just has to watch out for him off the ball one of the things for the thing for the Knicks to

watch out for. Usually the Pacers will use TJ McConnell like kind of is like the backup guard when Haliburton's off the floor, But they also have stretches where they play both of them, especially when TJ has it going. And so in those situations, I think I'd slide Brunson to Nie Smith and then I'd move and then I'd move Josh Hart over to TJ McConnell if that was

the case. Like again, whenever Halli Burton and TJ McConnell are both on the floor together, I think you got to keep your two best perimeter defenders on there because TJ McConnell would have a lot of success on Jalen Brunson. TJ is just a monster dribble drive guy who can cause all sorts of issues if he gets a favorable matchup. So again I'd put TJ on nemhard, but I would not excuse me, I'd put I've been mixing up names this whole damn show. I apologize it's been a grind.

I would keep Brunson on Nemhard when he's on the floor, but I would not put him on TJ McConnell if I could have that. So when but when nem Hard and Smith are on the floor together, I think he put Josh Hart on AARONI Smith. He is a classic spot up shooter and transition athlete right The vast majority of his play types are attacking closeouts and running his lane in transition, similar to what we were talking about

with og Anobi. He's shooting really well when he's open and pretty poorly when you get a good contest and so and similar to Ojannobi, he's got real downhill slashing force. So, like again Josh Hart, I think matches that force best, and I think he can kind of be the guy that towes that line between helping and recovering and throwing out solid closeouts. And again, he might have to spend some time on TJ McConnell depending on how the rotation works out. This is a matchup I think is going

to work favorably for the Knicks. Ogn Andobi on Pascal Siakam just a much tougher matchup than all of these slow footed forwards and centers that Milwaukee put on him, and Siakam was cooking those guys off the dribble. OG would be able to beat him to spots better and actually force him to shoot over the top. And he's got the strength, fact to not be bullied off of his spots, and so I think Og just kind of

keeping Siakam in front will go a long way. Siakim shot just thirty six percent on pull up jumpers in the Bucks series and did not make a pull up three, just zero point seven to two points per shot attempt. So if Og can contain and make him shoot over the top, I think he can play him into some lower efficiency Hart and sign on Turner. Turner is shooting super well in the postseason, right, forty four percent from three on seven attempts, fifty four percent on unguarded catch

and shoot jumpers. So now, again, like I mentioned earlier, the Knicks just dealt with a much better version of this, kind of like pick and pop threat with Joel Embiid, so hard and Signed and Robinson know exactly what they need to do, just containing the ball handler and then recovering, sprinting and closing out to Miles Turner. Now, Miles Turner did not shoot that well in the regular season, and so a big thing that would help the Knicks is if Miles Turner had some regression back to the mean

keys for both teams. For the Pacers, they need to look to run, especially when the Knicks have bad floor balance. When they're kind of attacked the offensive glass super aggressively, Halliburton is gonna have to hit shots. I think the Knicks are going to try to dare him to shoot pull up jumper. He's gonna have to hit him. Inverted

ball screens with Siakam. This is a big thing that I talked about in a video breakdown earlier in the season, But the one of the big actions that the Pacers had a lot of success with in the regular season was Siakam is the ball handler and then come have like nemhard set of screen and then slip and when that hedge comes from the guard because they don't want to put a guard on Siakam, he can kind of

slip into the back line. I think that'd be useful because I think I'm looking to attack one on one on og Anobi is not going to work out in his favor, and so using those guard guard screens to kind of generate better openings I think will make the game easier for Siakam. On the Knicks front, got to get back and transition defense, Like if they're going to attack the offensive glass like crazy, they just got to

make sure they have somebody back. Make Caliburton shot maker, like we talked about earlier, containing in ball screens, hard closeouts on guys like Miles Turner, Andrew Nemhard and their Nie Smith, guys that can beat him in spot up situation, and then continue to punish the pacers on the offensive glass to dissuade them to push in transition, because we know that that's going to be a big aspect in this series. In terms of a pick, I think the

Knicks matchup really well with Indiana. They can hang with their foot speed in a way that Milwaukee could not, but at the same time, they're also a much more physically imposing team. They're much stronger physically, which I think bodes well for the physical playoff environment. Their offensive rebounding is also a really nice counter to Indiana's transition attack. If they do enough damage on the offensive glass they might dissuade them from running. And then I really like

the og An Andobi matchup on Pascalciakam. I think that can go a long way towards towards slowing him down. So I'm gonna pick the Knicks to win this series in six games, all right, So yeah, Pacers certainly have a chance. I just think that the Knicks are a bad matchup for them with their speed combination of speed and strength, and then they they've got a really good defender to guard Pascalciakam, which I think is gonna make things a little bit tougher on them. Gonna be fun

series though. Now we're in the second round, all all really good teams left with exception of whoever Boston ends up playing. So it's gonna be a fun one. That's all I have for today is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show. We'll be back after the final buzzer of Magic Calvs live on YouTube. I will see you guys. Then the volume