Hoops Tonight - Pacers-Bucks Series Preview + Prediction

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Void in Ontario new customers only. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio. All right, well, good to hoops tonight here at the volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody, hope ball. You guys are having a great day. We are breaking down the Milwaukee Bucks and

the Indiana Pacers in their first round series today. We're going to go through the same format that we have been doing for this whole series, which is we're going over the season series upfront. Just talk about what happened to this regular season. We'll go over their odds to win the series. On DraftKings, we'll talk about the Bucks on offense, then we'll talk about the Pacers on offense. I'll go over my major swing factors in the series, and then at the very end, I will give you

guys my pick. You guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't miss show announcement. Don't forget about a podcast feed rerevacation your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. We also have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and

Facebook where Jackson's been doing incredible work this year. Make sure you guys follow us there for more content. In the last minut least, Kee dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so that we can get to them in our weekly mail bags throughout the remainder of the season.

All right, let's talk some basketball. So season series Bucks one three to one, one in one since the Kyle Kuzma trade, the Stars have played in all of the games, but important role players have missed games for both teams, and in general, regular season results can only take you so far. Most famously, last year, we had a series where the Suns beat the Wolves four to zho in the regular season and then got four owed when they

went into the postseason. It's not necessarily the end all be all in any way, shape or form, or mainly just looking at what we can see in terms of matchups and different schematic things that teams can do to make each other uncomfortable. The odds right now the Pacers are a minus one ninety favorite that feels about right to me. Under the circumstances with Dame's blood clot issue, I think this was more or less a coin flip series. With both teams perfectly healthy. The Bucks are learning how

to play a new style of offense without Dame. The Pacers have home court, so putting the Pacers is a mild favorite like this at minus one ninety makes some sense to me. The Dame injury. Sean Sherania reported yesterday that there is optimism that Dame will return before the first round. What happens with Dame obviously completely changes the way the series looks on both ends of the floor. So there's a great deal of unknown here that we have to account for. Just keep that in mind as

we're looking at this series. All right, let's talk about the Bucks on offense again. It totally depends on what happens with Dane, but it's at least worth mentioning that the Bucks had discovered a new offensive formula without Dame that you could argue that they should keep leaning into

as they head into this series. The Bucks won eight consecutive games to end the season to finish with forty eight wins, and honestly, forty eight wins is really impressive when you factor in the fact that they started two to eight the way that they did. Giannis played in six of those games, all without Dame. Some good teams in there, two wins against Detroit and Minnesota in those games. In those six games, the Bucks logged a one to

thirty five offensive rating. Giannis on the floor, he averaged thirty two points, twelve rebounds, and twelve assists in those games. On sixty one percent from the field, forty two percent from three on two to three point attempts per game, and seventy three percent from the line. Let me put this bluntly, just so that everyone understands, in this six game span, Giannis is playing some of the best basketball that any player has ever played ever. He's had double

figure assists in five of his last six games. He had a twenty assist game and it shows on tape. It's not fake stats, guys. He's scoring a million points and then as the team is loading up on him, he's picking them apart with his playmaking. He's like flying under the radar somehow, even though he's playing like a two way Luca. This is a huge factor in the series for a few reasons. First of all, this stretch is the best that the Bucks offense has looked in

the entire your Dame Gianis era. Playing Giannis at point and just letting him be what Lebron was in his prime is just this point forward that's just bringing the ball out to the floor in semi transition and just scoring and playmaking out of just basic athleticism based rim pressure. That thing is really working. If they bail on it and go back to a ton of usage for Dame and high ball screens with Dame. I think it would

be detrimental to the offense. Secondly, Giannis playing at this level makes him far and away the best player in this series. I like Tyres Salaburton, he's playing really well these days, but Giannis is just on an entirely different planet right now. So the question is how should Milwaukee structure their offense with Dame coming back. I'd still run

almost everything through Giannis when he's on the floor. If you want to run screening action, run inverted screens with Dame, screening for Giannis, use Dame as a second side guy, meaning having him spot up, and then if the ball gets moved over to the other side of the floor and the action doesn't create an advantage, then he can run that second side action coming back the other way. But I'd keep running through Giannis as much as possible.

Then when Yiannis checks out, Dame can spam his high ball screens, which will obviously be more reliable than what they've had with him out of the lineup. But with Dame off the floor, I've actually really liked some of the chemistry that Jannis is building with Kevin Porter Junior. I was talking with a Bucks friend of mine. I do this with some fans from various fan bases, just to try to get a feel for what they think when they've been watching the team, like literally night in

and night out, year after year. And one of the things this friend of mine said is that Kevin Porter Junior plays a little slower than Dame. Has a tendency when he gets to turn the corner in ball screens to just go one speed, just downhill, all the force in the world. He doesn't do the like let me put you in jail thing. He doesn't do the like let me methodically come off of the ball screen thing, KPJ.

A little bit more of that, a little bit slower off the ball screen, a little bit more of like, let's rescreen and like screen multiple times until the defender makes a mistake. As a result, Giannis has been getting a lot of like short role opportunities and passes in

the pocket from his actions with Kevin Porter Junior. So like, I kind of like the idea of having Dame run his own units and then having these units that have Giannis and Kevin Porter Junior in there and then playing through Yannis when Dame is on the floor, how will the Pacers mass up match up. We're gonna see Pascal Siakam on Jianis, We're gonna see Myles Turner on Brook Lopez, Andrew Nemhard is going to guard Dame, aaron Ne Smith will guard Kyle Kuzma, and we'll see Tyre's Haliburton on

Torrian Prince. Turrian Prince is theoretically a good option to put Tyres Haliburton on. You hedge and recover with Haliburton right, The way you beat hedging and recovering is you have to slip out of the screen and quickly make yourself available for three so that you can catch and shoot. Torrian Prince is a little gun shy when he's not like wide open, and so theoretically you put Tyres there because Toorian's not the type of quick release, confinite shooter

to beat hedges in those hedge and recover sequences. But it's worth mentioning the Toorian's played well in this matchup. He's shooting fifty three percent from three against the Pacers this year. Defending honest is about building a wall, which means it's not about Siakam, It's about Turner and Siakam, and so one of the biggest swing factors in this series. And I'd argue this is a bigger swing factor than any of the swing factors I've talked about in any

of the series so far. The above the break three point shooting of Brook Lopez and Miles Turner is arguably going to completely swing the outcome of this series because you're gonna need those guys to protect the rim, and if their counterpart is nailing above the break threes, they're going to have to close out. And if they're going to have to close out, it's going to cause a lot of problems. If one of those guys has a great series shooting the three and the other doesn't, could

literally swing the outcome of this series. That's how important that spacing piece from the BIGS is. So for instance, brook Lopez just nailing above the break threes, it's a lot of Siakam trying to handle Yannis going downhill without backside help, or at least not without backside help that has real size, and only size is going to bother Yannis when you get around the rim. Something to keep an eye on the bucks have been surrounding Yannis with

a lot of play finishing lately. Seen a lot of Bobby Portis, a lot of Gary Trent Junior, a lot of aj Green, a lot of these knockdown three point shots, and Giannis is generating a lot of really high quality three point shots. So for Indie to succeed, the key is going to be the quality of their closeouts. They're gonna have to build a wall, but they're also gonna have to use that speed to get out to Milwaukee shooters.

Rush them, make them uncomfortable, play them into misses. You're not going to cross your fingers and hope those guys miss. They're too good at knocking down those shots in order for that to go in your favor. Looking at Indiana on offense, this type of offense is theoretically one of Milwaukee's biggest weaknesses. A guard that can bring Brook Lopez up to the level but really play make out of it, and just a ton of speed in shooting to capitalize

on an older, slow footed Milwaukee Bucks team. Right, but statistically Milwaukee is held up this year. Indiana has managed just a one to twelve offensive rating in the four games. Now, some of that is injuries. It's worth mentioning Andrew Nemhard and Aaron Neiesmith and their ability to attack closeouts is key to the ceiling of this offense. Those guys missed

games in the regular season this year. But again, as I mentioned, it's worth mentioning if in these matchups over the course of the last couple of years, Indiana has made Milwaukee's defense uncomfortable from time to time. This year it hasn't worked. How can INDI's offense break through against Milwaukee this year by weaponizing their advantage, which is that combination of speed and play finishing with Tyre's house Leburton's play making ability. They are the much younger and much

faster team. They need to run like their life depends on it. In this series, get in transition as much as possible, creating advantages before Milwaukee can load up their defense in the half court, before they can load up their size underneath the rim. Then, when they're in the half court, playing with the same kind of pace, getting the ball from side to side, multiple attacks on the same possession, forcing the slow footed Bucks to cover a

ton of ground in rotation. On film, the action that seemed to generate the best advantages was the Haliburton Turner pick and roll or pick and pop. I should say the Bucks have been doing a lot of switching since they got Kyle Kuzma, switching with Yannis Torrian and uh and Kyle Kuzma together. So like in those sorts of situations, you'll see, you know, Siakam get a mismatch through a screening action, but Siakam's not getting like a lot of like baked in openings from two on the ball. When

Siakam gets in the screen, it's a switch. So Siakam's going to get some mismatches that he can attack. But the actual action they can run that gets the Bucks into rotation every time is that pick and pop. They are running variations of drop with brook Lopez. They're bringing him up to the level they're sitting in further back.

If Turner pops in that action, he's going to be open, and his ability to knock down that three or make the next play in the sequence is going to be the best pathway for the Pacers to get the Bucks into rotation. And then again, the kind of like the ceiling raising piece for the Pacers is that close out attacking of Aerone Smith and andrel Emhard. Those guys need to have good series. They need to knock down threes. They need to score slashing off of closeouts in order

for their offense to have success. Major swing factors in the series Giannis going superhuman like he off. If Giannis averages a thirty point triple double in this series, I think the Bucks will win. If he's closer to the player he was two years ago. If he's like thirty two, twelve and five, I don't think they have enough. I think Giannis is going to be at that level and that will reflect in my pick here in just a

few minutes, the Pick and Pop bigs. I won't get any further into it because I mentioned it earlier, but the shooting of Brook Lopez and Miles Turner will be a massive swing factor in the series. What level is Damian Litherard going to be at? We haven't seen Dame in the playoffs alongside Giannis yet coming back from an injury. Is he going to be in a situation where he's already in rhythm or is this rhythm going to be

kind of out of whack. That's gonna be a huge factor in this series and then lastly, Tyres Halliburton's up and down. So if you remember last year, he would have these weird games where he just wouldn't shoot. And I think in a series like this, that's not a mistake that Indiana can withstand. They need Tyres Halliburton at like twenty points and twelve assists a game in the series for them to win. He needs consistent output, consistent aggression night tonight. This is going to be my first

underdog pick of the playoffs. I think the Bucks are gonna win this series in six games. I think this leap from Giannis is scary. I don't think this roster is good enough to win the conference, but I absolutely think they can offer enough support for Yiannis to carry them to an upset of a second tier contender like the Indiana Pacers. I think we've all forgotten how good Giannis is, even when he was a lesser version of himself in the playoffs three years ago. He almost single

handedly dispatched the Celtics in twenty twenty two. I also think that strong game plan discipline can cause Indiana's offense to bog down from time to time. Tyres Saliburn is a good score He's not a great score. Pascal Siakam is a good scorer. He's not a great score. If you do your job, if you stick to the game plan, if you are good and sharp on the details, which the Bucks have not been stretches this year. But if you do that stuff, they can run into a little

bit of a ceiling on offense. That is where I think in the playoffs, with the extra game plan and the extra prep, Milwaukee might stand a better chance defensively. I also think they found a formula surrounding Yiannis with shooting instead of play making talent like Drew Holliday and Chris Middleton that is working really, really well. Surrounding him with a bunch of dudes that are just dead eye catch and shoot players and just giving the ball to

Honest you couldn't do that in the past. Giannis wasn't a good enough I used to talk all the time, Giannis was not good enough as a surgical half court player to do that. I think he's much closer to that level now. I think it's a formula that actually works in a way that it didn't work in the past. The game play and discipline piece is probably my biggest

bit of anxiety. Playoff chess matches aren't exactly the strong suit of Doc Rivers, and there's a chance that I spend this entire series frustrated as hell as he sabotages to them on both ends of the floor. But I'm placing my faith in Yannis here. I think. I still think having the best player in a series when everything else is relatively close, I still think that that really matters. And I think that Yannis is one of the truly special players in NBA history that is capable of getting

this done. It's picking the bucks in six, putting my faith in Yannis. All right, guys, That's all I have for today is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. I'll see you guys tonight live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Grizzlies Warriors. I'll see you guys then. What so, guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and

a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, But if you could take a minute to do that. I really appreciate it. The volume