Hoops Tonight - Pacers-Bucks Predictions: Will Giannis' injury cost Milwaukee their season? - podcast episode cover

Hoops Tonight - Pacers-Bucks Predictions: Will Giannis' injury cost Milwaukee their season?

Apr 16, 202436 min
--:--
--:--
Listen in podcast apps:
Metacast
Spotify
Youtube
RSS

Episode description

Jason Timpf shares his predictions for Damian Lillard and the Milwaukee Bucks' matchup with Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Jason discusses the impact of Giannis Antetokounmpo's injury, breaks down film from prior matchups this season, and shares who he expects to advance to the second round. #volume

Timeline:

00:00 - Pacers have had success vs. Bucks

04:11 - Impact of Giannis injury

07:49 - How Milwaukee will defend Indiana

15:49 - Keys for both teams when Pacers have ball

18:11 - How Pacers will defend Bucks

20:49 - Keys for both teams when Bucks have ball

21:56 - Jason's Prediction

24:05 - Pacers-Bucks Film Study

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Pacers have had success vs. Bucks

Speaker 1

The volume. The eighty two game preseason is in the books, and now it's finally time for the real season. Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. From the play in tournament through the finals, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered with same game parlays, live betting odds, boosts, and so much more. The Boston Celtics are currently the favorite at plus one sixty, but the team that's third

in my championship rankings the Dallas Mavericks. You can get them on DraftKings right now at plus sixteen hundred. To win the title. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code hoops. That's Hops. New customers bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets instantly. That's code

hoops hops only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler or in West Virginia visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net York call eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text hope and Why to four six seven three six nine In Connecticut. Help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or.

Speaker 2

Visit CCPG dot org.

Speaker 1

Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas. Twenty one plus age varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See dkang dot co slash bball for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to HOOPSINAI here at the volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody hopeful,

if you guys are having an incredible week. Just quick show for you guys today, We're just doing a deep dive series preview on the Pacers versus the Bucks.

Speaker 2

I also have.

Speaker 1

Seventeen clips for a little film session surrounding this matchup at the tail end of the show. You guys are the Joe for we Get Startist. Subscribe to our brand of YouTube channels you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys don't miss show announcements as well as the film threads that I do from time to time in the mornings. Don't forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you

alleviate rating in the review on that feed. And the last but not least, keepdropping mail back questions in the YouTube comments. We're gonna hit some mailbags later on this week. All right, let's talk some basketball. So, as I've mentioned before, as we kind of incorporate this film session kind of format. The way that I want to do this for our podcast audience is I want to do all of the audio stuff first and just kind of talk through the series. Then we'll look at the film at the tail end.

So you guys listening on the podcast feed, if you guys want to see some visual examples of the concepts that I'm talking about, just make your way over to YouTube.

Speaker 2

All right, let's get into it.

Speaker 1

So Pacers won the season series four to one a fifth game there as a result of the season tournament semi final. Basically, the Pacers won the first two games, then after the n season tournament, they went to Milwaukee and got shredded by Milwaukee's offense and lost the game.

But shortly after that, about a month later, the Pacers beat the Bucks in a home and home, meaning they went into Milwaukee and beat the Bucks and then came home the Bucks trying to avoid getting embarrassed and losing the season series four to one, going to Indiana and lose again. It's just a really really bad matchup for Milwaukee. In terms of the gap in foot speed, We're going to dig into it, but in terms of the season series,

not a good showing for the Milwaukee Bucks. All the games were before the trade deadline, so the teams are a little bit different. Obviously, Milwaukee operating with Patrick Beverley is kind of their new backcourt defensive option. He's actually

started a couple games down the stretch. Maleak Beasley over his last forty one games of the season is shooting below thirty six percent from three, so with him just not being the same level of defender and him not shooting as well as it typically does there, I think two times over the final four games, Doc Rivers went with Patrick Beverly as basically an alternative there. Patrick Beverly is a really good guard defender, but not a great, you know, bigger wing defender, and so honestly, I think

Impact of Giannis injury

he kind of fits that role nicely the job that Malik Beasley was doing. He comes with his own offensive limitations. Obviously, he's a little bit of a ball stopper. He's he's your textbook like catch pump, fake jab step guy, where like the ball just kind of sticks in his hands a little bit, and so there's some offensive limitations there. But that's a different configuration that Milwaukee can go to that they did not have in the Indiana or the

Indiana season series. And Patrick Beverley actually has had some success against Tyrese Halliburton individually in that matchup over the course of his career famously, you know, obviously covering the Lakers pretty closely last year.

Speaker 2

Last year with the Lakers, he had a big.

Speaker 1

Night in Indiana where he was able to do a good job against Tyrese Haliburton down the stretch. Now context there obviously Anthony Davis on the back end and Tyres Aliburton's not the same level player in season as he is in this particular season, but different configuration they're obviously in Indiana, they're not as good at guard without Bruce Brown, but they're much better at forward with Pascal Siakam, and they have a legitimate secondary shot creator, different element to

their offense that they can go to. Also, the units that have Pascal Siakam with Miles Turner and Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Empard have been pretty good defensively, so they have a different look that they can get to in terms of perimeter athleticism, including the front court that they didn't have early in the season. So both teams are a little bit different. But I'm gonna give you the

information that I have from the season series. The Pacers have a one to twenty two offensive rating in this matchup. They have consistently shredded the Bucks defense. Bucks have done well offensively as well, a one eighteen offensive rating, just not nearly as well. The Pacers have won the rebounding battles slightly, although both teams have struggled a bit to clean up the defensive glass. I was surprised by this part. The gambling odds on DraftKings, the Bucks are a minus

one thirty five favorite. We had a Yannis report. Weind of had a feeling coming into this series that Yannis was going to miss some time. Wojes reported this morning. Adrian Warzonowski from ESPN reported this morning that the Bucks are preparing to be without Yannis for the start of the series, but that they're hopefully having him back later in the series. Big advantage for the Pacers on two levels. One obviously no Yannis, but two early in the series

the Bucks have more home games. Think of it like this. Once you get through the first two games, three of the last five are in Indiana, and so if they split one one, you just have to win your home games. If you're Indiana, you win the series. If you go up to Oho in Milwaukee, even if Jannis comes back, you just have to go two and three over the final five games, with three of those games being at home, and so a lot stacked against Milwaukee in this series.

Just on the surface, before we even get into some of the some of the matchup stuff, a couple of things with the Bucks without Yanis. I wanted to share some lineup data with you just so you guys can get a feel for what the Bucks have been like this year when Jannis has been off the floor. I'm want to look at this from four different lineup groupings. First of all, just giant aggregate sample of Jannis off the floor twenty six and four possessions according to Cleaning

the Glass. With Jannis off the floor, again, cleaning the glass filters out garbage time, but they have a minus five point six net rating, meaning they get outscored by five point six points per one hundred possessions. And they've been bad on both ends of the floor. Now, what if we look at the three best players for the Bucks with Janis off the floor, so Damian Lillard on Chris Middleton on Brook Lopez on Jannis off three hundred and sixty one possessions, a minus twenty point eight net rating,

atrocious on both ends of the floor. Then we look at their new starting lineup, so the starting line they use for the most part after the the the Jiannis injury, not counting obviously the configurations with Patrick Beverley, they have

How Milwaukee will defend Indiana

Dame Malik Beasley, Chris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez ninety eight possessions, minus eight point two rating atrocious on offense and bad on defense. They've been much better with Patrick Beverley on the floor in that grouping. Here's the biggest silver lining. If you just look at the big front court, So Bobby Portis at the four, Lopez at

the five, with Giannis off the floor. Substantial sample size three and eighty four possessions, they are plus one in net rating, meaning they're outscoring teams by one point per one hundred posessions in a massive sample size. Mediocre on offense, but pretty good on the defensive end of the floor. Again, Bobby Portis, when he's in that backup center spot and

he's constantly defending ball screens, doesn't look pretty good. It doesn't look very good defensively, right, But like if you get Lopez into ball screens and allow Portas to be the low man, or if you allow Portis to come up to the level and hedge or high drop while having Brooke Lopez on the back line, things have looked better defensively. And so I think that's the configuration we're going to see for the most part with Giannis off the floor in this series, depending on how long he's

going to be out. So translation, not a lot of good, a lot of really bad data with Giannis off the floor. But your ray of sunlight you're a little bit of like kind of like optimism to cling to is that you've been positive this year with Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez on the floor together give yourself a better chance to defend the rim. The Pacers in particular, are the

best paint attacking team in the league. They scored the fourth most points in transition this year, and they've scored the most points on the role in ball screens this year. That's a big part of what allowed them to be the best points in the paint team in the league this year. So let's start with the Pacers on the offensive end of the floor. What I expect from matchups. I think we'll see either Malik Beasley or Patrick Beverley

on Tyrese Haliburton. That goes without saying again, we're going to talk about the difference between Patrick Beverly and Malik Beasley here in a minute. In terms of options, Damian Lillard will most likely guard Andrew Nemhard. Now, the next question is like, do you put Bobby Portis on Pascal Siakam or do you put Chris Middleton on Pascal Siakam. That's gonna be the challenge, right and honestly, you can go either way. Here's here's where I have a kind

of my own little personal kind of basketball belief. I want to keep Portis in lowman situations as much as possible because he's not as fast, but he has good size. Right, I want to keep Middleton defending on the perimeter as much as possible. So if you put Middleton on Siakam, is he gonna be able to slide his feet better?

Speaker 2

Sure?

Speaker 1

Is he gonna be able to deal with some of Pascal Siakam's athleticism traits better?

Speaker 2

Sure?

Speaker 1

But do I want Bobby Portis trying to close out on Aaron E. Smith on the perimeter and not be in a low man situation as often? No? I think that limits or brings out the worst and what Bobby Portis brings to the table. So I personally would put Bobby Portis on Pascal Siakam gives him more lowman type

of possessions. And again, what I mean there by lowman possessions is he's defending a guy that he's not as worried about as a shooter, so he can tag rollers and help be behind brook Lopez when brook Lopez has to show on a ball handler or leave his feet on a shot block at tempt. He can help kind of clean up the backside. I want him around the

basket as much as possible. If I had him on aaron Nie Smith, who's shooting over forty percent from three this year and has been an excellent closeout attacker with really good slashing speed. Now he's closing out to the perimeter more not going to be able to help at the rim is more so, the I also think, like with a Pascal Siakam's kind of bully ball attack, Portis will be able to hold up under that reasonably well by conceding the jump shot and just trying to beat

him to spots by backpedaling right. Chris Middleton. If you put Middleton on Siakam, I think Siakam has a better chance to kind of play bully ball against him. Middleton closing out and trying to contain aaron Nie Smith and close out situations. I kind of like that matchup now, right, So here's the counterpoint. What if the Pacers just go to Siakam Haliburton ball screens to try to attack Bobby Portis. I get that, and I understand the concern, and they

probably have some success there. But the alternative is you have Chris Middleton in that action and you switch it right, so Middleton on Siakam and you have and you have your primary point of attack defender, whether it's Malik Beasley or Patrick Beverley on Tyrese Saliburton. Right, But if you switch it and you put Chris Middleton onto Tyrese Aliburn, now you got Moligue Beasley or Patrick Beverley trying to guard Chris Middleton and or excuse me, trying to guard

Pascal Siakam. And like as I mentioned earlier, I like Patrick Beverley defending guards, but I don't particularly like him defending forwards. I know he has a bit of a reputation for that, but just as someone who was rooting for the Lakers last year, I watched him guard a lot of forwards and for the most part, it didn't go well. And he had to guard a lot of fords because the Lakers didn't have any forwards at that point in the season, so it was kind of a

thing that he had to do a lot. And so in my opinion, the best way to handle that is to keep portis on Seacam. Don't switch those ball screens, just run a high drop. So essentially, imagine Tyree Sliburton has the ball, he calls Siakam into the ball screen to try to attack Bobby Portis, you bring Bobby Portis up to the level of the screen, and you have Brook Lopez basically ignore Miles Turner to handle whatever happens

in the paint. This is gonna be one of the biggest kind of like themes of the series, the Brook Lopez Miles Turner kind of like battle because both of those guys are centers that can shoot threes, but that don't hit enough of them to really truly be dangerous. And so I think both teams are going to basically concede catch and shoot threes on pops and spot up

situations to both of those guys, right. Brooke Miles Turner, for instance, he's below thirty six percent from three and below a point per possession on spot up possessions overall, So yeah, he can make them, but from a game plan standpoint, you almost have to ignore him to give yourself a chance to slow down Indiana. And so basically what I expect is on your Turner ball screens on SIAKAM, I think you'll see Lopez in a deep drop coverage, right,

and you'll just be chasing over the top. And we'll talk about that specific a dynamic and a mini because they're gonna have to do a better job than they did in the regular season. But then when they run any ball screens with Siakam to try to bring Bobby Portis into the action, I expect him to bring Portis way out high and then have Lopez ignore Turner to sit in the paint and try to clean up anything rolling to the basket. Now, if Siakam pops, he's going

to be open. But all Bobby Portis has to do is chase him off the line and funnel him into Brook Lopez and it close out after the fact. Right, And Siakam hasn't shot the three. He shot the three better since going to Indiana, but he still isn't the kind of guy that you're super, super worried about.

Speaker 2

Lighting you up from the three point line.

Speaker 1

So the main problem that I have with this particular matchup for for Milwaukee is they just don't really do a good job of making Tyrese Haliburton feel uncomfortable. Malik Beasley has had little to no success just even making applying even back pressure making him feel even remotely uncomfortable. He can get him set up. Tyree's can get him set up on the wrong side his screens and just easily get into easy fifteen footers and floaters and so on.

And so he picks on Dame like crazy with guard guard screens to get Dame switched on to him, and then he'll bring Dame into the ball screen. It's been a problem, and I'll show you guys some examples on film when we get there. But the Bucks have had a nightmare time handling Tyrese Haliburton in ball screen. So that makes me wonder if this is gonna end up being more of kind of like a Patrick Beverly type

of series. Obviously, as I mentioned, they started him twice there down the stretch of the year, including in that must win game against Orlando, And not only that, Orlando's not really a team that initiates from the guard position that much, and so I think that's a pretty strong indicator of where Doc Rivers is leaning with the starting group heading into the postseason. Like, they didn't even have to guard a Tyres in that must win game and they went with Patrick Beverley.

Speaker 2

And as I mentioned.

Speaker 1

Earlier, Malik Beasley just thirty six percent from three over the final half of the season. It's a forty one game sample size, so it just kind of turned into

Keys for both teams when Pacers have ball

an option there where Pat made some sense. So if I was Milwaukee, I would just start Patrick Beverley and from there I would lean on that deep drop coverage because again, that heep dropped coverage. Brook Lopez is going to be back towards the rim. But they were getting killed because they were not doing a good enough job on Tyres Halliburton right on the ball, and you'll see

in the video examples it's really bad. So if we kind of take this dynamic and I go from Malik Beasley to a much better perimeter defender in Patrick Beverley, and we look at the fact that Tyres Haliburton is just not the same guy that he was before his hamstring injury. He's down a level that might give you a better chance of holding up in that coverage. Just to give you guys a little bit of a perspective.

Before his hamstring injury, Tyres Haliburton averaged twenty four points and thirteen assists per game on fifty percent from the

field and forty percent from three. After his hamstring injury, seventeen points per game a nine assists, forty six percent from the field and thirty two percent from three, just hasn't been the same guy, even if we zoom in at the end of the season the kind of run that he's currently on last ten games, nineteen points and nine assists, forty seven percent from the field and thirty eight percent from three, So starting to get a little bit better, but still not the old Tyrese Halliburton that

we've kind of that we kind of grew accustomed to early in the season. And so that's a big swing factor in the series. It's probably the second biggest swing factor behind when is Giannis gonna return? Is is tyres Halliburton gonna be the Tyresse Halliburton that we know? But again, if Patrick Beverly starts the series or plays big minutes in the series and does a much better job in their drop coverage of applying back pressure, that can kind

of make that coverage hold up better. Especially if Tyrese Haliburton is not the same level player that he was earlier in the series, that could literally be Milwaukee's best pathway to victory keys for both teams. When Indiana has the ball, Haliburton has to be able to score again. That's that's that's gonna be the thing that he did early in the season that he hasn't been able to do as well here down the stretch. Has to be

able to score the basketball. That's the only thing that's gonna punish that Bucks drop coverage, Siakam inverted ball screens. This is again it's gonna be really important to try to find a way to get Pascalci downhill, especially when you're gonna have Bobby Portis in all likelihood sagging pretty far off of him, and so one of the things I'd like to see them do to attack that. And I did a whole video on Siakam inverted ball screens earlier.

How Pacers will defend Bucks

It was like two or three weeks ago on our YouTube feed, one over a million examples, so you guys can kind of check that out on our YouTube feed a bit further back. But when they say guarde screens on Siakam, he usually is able to get downhill into the lane and get some good shots. So that's a big thing I'd like to see him go too. I think it's a great way to attack Milwaukee's guards too. Also, you'll get some switches that way where Siakam will be able to attack out of the post, and then Miles

Turner's three point shooting has to knock down threes. The Bucks will almost certainly leave him open, and if he shoots forty percent, that just gives Indiana a much better chance to win the series. On the Milwaukee front, all about ball pressure and back pressure. You've got to be You've got to be able to stay in that deep drop coverage to be able to hold up against Indiana's

paint attack. The only way you're gonna be able to do that is if you can keep him in that coverage, and the only way you're gonna be able to keep him in that coverage is with your back pressure. That is going to be the biggest fat for Milwaukee defensively in this series. How well do they guard Tyres Haliburton. Bobby Portis and Chris Middleton have to handle their matchups, meaning Bobby Portis has to be able to hold up in ISO against Pascal Siakam and be good and help situations.

And Chris Middleton has to be able to help and recover in the Aaronie Smith matchup. And again he's a very good shooter and a very good closeout attacker, so that's going to be a tough job. And then Dame has to do his job effort over the top of screens when he does get switched onto Halliburton or TJ McConnell. T J McConnell did a number on the Bucks in this season series as well. I'll show you guys some

clips when we get there. And then also in hedge and recover situations, he just needs to do his job to cut off that driving angle in the hedge and then to recover to chase the shooter off the line, and then lastly they got to get back in transition. The Bucks are one of the worst transition frequency teams in the league and the Pacers are one of the highest transition frequency teams in the league. They run as much as they can, and the Bucks are really bad

at stopping teams from running. That's a matchup that they're going to have to gain control of. Moving over to Milwauke with the ball, I expect are Nemhard to guard Damian Lillard to start the series, Aaron Nesmith to guard Chris Middleton. Again, those are aeroni. Smith's kind of like a fire hydrant, lower center of gravity, really good sliding his feet will force Chris to shoot over the top. But Chris isn't over the top shooter, and he's good

footwork guy. I'll show you some examples. Tyre's Aliburton will most likely be guarding Patrick Beverly or Milik Beasley again. With him, it's gonna be big, mostly a bit, mostly going to be about hedging and recovering, and this is a big swing factor in the series.

Speaker 2

Shoot.

Speaker 1

If Indiana can play Malik Beasley off the floor by attacking him when he's on defense and he's not making enough shots for whatever reason, then they'll have to go to Patrick Beverley. If they go to Patrick Beverley, it makes it a lot easier for Tyre's Haliburton to hedge and recover without leaving openings. So that's gonna be a big match up in this series as well. Pascal Siakam is most likely going to guard Bobby Portis and the Miles Turner is going to guard Brook Lopez. I don't

Keys for both teams when Bucks have ball

think you can switch that around and have Turner guard Portis and Siakam guard Lopez because in that case, just because of how well Bobby Portis is shooting the ball, I don't think you can run a deep drop with Brook Lopez or excuse me with with Miles Turner against the Bobby Portis ball screens, because Bobby Portis is just shooting the shit out of the basketball is fifty three percent from three on fifteen games, and they'll just pick and pop and Bobby Portis is just gonna make all

those shots. So I think you actually have to go with Siakam on Bobby Portis so that you have more athleticism athleticism to chase him off the three point line, and then you're gonna sit in a deep drop with Miles Turner. The Pacers are actually a solid defense with their core group Aeronie Smith, Andrew Nemhard, Pascal Siakam, and Miles Turner on the floor together have a one to

eleven point five defensive rating, which is pretty good. As a matter of fact, both of these defenses, including Milwaukee, are better statistically than their reputations would lead you to believe. They're actually pretty solid defensive teams. I expect the Pacers, like I mentioned earlier, to do to Lopez with the Bucks will do to Turner, just ignore him at the three point line. I'll show you some examples on film of where the Pacers have had success against the Bucks

Jason's Prediction

this season by ignoring brook Lopez, I expect high drop with siakam on Portis and pick and rolls or Giannis in pick and Rolls when he returns. One other thing we're gonna see on film, Jiannis has to roll after he sets his screens. That was a big issue in the Pacers season series this year. I'll show you some examples. Miles Turner is going to be hawking the back line there so again, imagine siakam a in a ball screen with Portis up at the level right sprinting to chase

Bobby Portis off the line on the kickback. Even if Bobby Portis drives, Miles Turner is going to be sitting in the paint, ignoring brook Lopez to kind of concede that catch and shoot three right keys for both teams when Milwaukee for Milwaukee, when Milwaukee has the ball cleared side ball screens for Portis and Giannis to have easier reads. I'll show some more film examples of that. Giannis has to roll hard after setting these screens. It's so important

for creating the openings. Chris Middleton has to find a way to win the Nie Smith matchup just by scoring. He's got to find a way to get comfortable as a secondary kind of offensive creator there, especially while Giannis is out. Brook Lopez needs to make his catch and shoot three similar to the Turner situation. And then lastly, Damian Lillard just has to play like a superstar. It's got to make superstar shots and carry this team long enough for

Yiannis to return. On the Indiana front, Aaron Nee Smith and Angel Nemhard consistently need to make Dame and Chris uncomfortable. Winning their defensive version of that matchup. Nie Smith does a good job with his back pressure. I'll show you guys some examples in Themhart again, Chris has gotten in with his footwork over this matchup. But if dem Hard can just stay steady, disrupt the shooting pocket, force tough over the top jump shots, he has a chance there.

Game playing discipline is going to be big. Got to make sure the right guys are taking the shots. And then if you can play Moleague Beasley off the floor, Patrick Beverley is going to do a better job on Tyre's Halliburton, but he's also going to give you a much better job of holding up on the defensive end.

Speaker 2

Of the four.

Speaker 1

My prediction for this series. If Giannis was healthy, I'd take Milwaukee. I'd take him in seven games. Even though Indiana has dominated this matchup, I think that Damon Giannis would probably be the best the two best players in the series, especially with how Tyres Haliburton has been playing. Obviously, homecore advantage I think is a big factor there. I basically think the home team would win every game and Milwaukee would win in seven, especially with Tyre Salibert not

Pacers-Bucks Film Study

being at one hundred percent, but with Giannis out, this feels like a series where Indiana goes up to one. I think they're gonna split. In Milwaukee, They're gonna get one because Gianni's being out right, They're gonna go back to Indiana. Game three is gonna be an absolute buzzsaw for a playoff environment. I think Indiana goes up two to one, and then even if Jannis comes back in Game four, that's a really hard game to win under

normal circumstances, and those would not be normal circumstances. Giannas would be coming back from an injury, and so with that being the case, I'm going Indiana in six. I think Milwaukee wins Game one I'll say off the strength of that home crowd, but I think Indiana steels game two. They run into a buzz so on game three. Game four is close, but I think Indiana gets a win. Even if Jannis plays Game five, I think Milwaukee wins, and I think Indiana closes him out in game six

at home. Again, I would pick Milwaukee if Janis was healthy, but with him being out, I think the safest bet is Indiana. All right, let's talk some actual film, all right, So this first clip is an example of Andrew Nemhard providing back pressure. Just I can show you guys how good of a job he does in this particular matchup. So again, we got Brooke and Giannis getting ready to set a staggered pick and roll. But look at the job of Andrew just chasing over the top and applying

that back pressure. He's making him uncomfortable getting that rear view contest, and he actually forces an airball.

Speaker 2

From Dame on this shot.

Speaker 1

Here's an example of the difference when you look at Tyres Haliburton working against Malik Beasley. So again, Tyres Haliburton, Malik Beasley, Brook Lopez in his deep drop, Isaiah Jackson sets the screen. Here, Tyres gets easily downhill. It doesn't have any trouble getting over the top of the screen. Look at this just easily gets downhill and sinks the floater. By the way, you're gonna see a lot of floaters from Tyres Haliburton in this film. Tyres Haliburton shoots fifty

four percent on floaters. That shot goes in all the time for him. That's that's gonna be a sh shot that he's going to be comfortable taking against that drop coverage.

Speaker 2

Same thing.

Speaker 1

Another floater from Tyree's easily getting over Malik Beasley. See how it's just so easy for him to get to that about Look how comfortable he looks. He looks like he's dribbling through cones. Here's an example of TJ McConnell on the ball against Dame. They just have a lot better guard defenders to deal with Dame and make Dame uncomfortable than the reverse with Tyres Halliburton. Good back pressure, still pursuing, still pursuing, chasing over the top. Look at

that back pressure, good contest force, another miss. TJ McConnell I think is going to be big swing factor in the series because of his dribble penetration. I talked about the gap and footspeed between both teams, especially with Giannis off the floor. TJ McConnell is actually one of the best dribble penetrators in the league. He can just hit guys with a high hesitation and just toast them off

the dribble and make good things happen. Here, he's just going to beat Chris in a straight up dribble drive and open up a back cut for Ben Mathern at the rim. Again, a lot of these All these clips took place before the trade deadline, so obviously you're gonna see.

Speaker 2

Some different players on the floor.

Speaker 1

Here's an example of how the Pacers will use Miles Turner to ignore Brook Lopez and help their defense hold up. Again, this is a late game situation too, so again, watch Miles Turner. He's actually running a high drop here because of Dame okay, and that may be what they end up doing with Turner in this matchup, depending on how they hold up at the point of attack. But Brook

Lopez is gonna pop and Turner's just not worried about it. Right, Lopez still open on the pop, Turner's not worried about it. Giannis is gonna dribble down on top end.

Speaker 2

Uh.

Speaker 1

Miles Turner's still not worried about it, still not worried about it. He's just gonna let brook Lopez catch and you see Tyres Haliburton throws a little little stunt at him. And that's, by the way, something that I think, especially if Patrick Beverly's out there, that they're gonna be able to do. And then Miles Turner is able to get a late contest on the brook Lopez shot and force some miss. Expect a lot of that. Expect Miles Turner

to ignore brook Lopez to shut down other actions. Here's another example of Tyrese Haliburton cooking the drop coverage.

Speaker 2

Let's see here. So again we.

Speaker 1

Get a transition kind of crossmatch situation where Dame ends up on Tyrese Aliburton off of a miss, just set a ball screen. Dame doesn't apply any back pressure, just dies on the screen. Tyres Haliburton gets an easy little pull up jump shot. TJ McConnell saw food every time he saw Malik Beasley. This is a little brush screen with Tyrese Haliburton to get the switch and Malik Beasley is just squared up with TJ, and TJ just goes right through him for an easy little turnaround jump shot.

Same exact sort of thing here this time, though, it is a trip to the foul line. So same little, same exact action, same exact little brush screen. Get him downhill, draws a foul, gets to the line.

Speaker 2

Again. You're gonna see a lot of that.

Speaker 1

You're gonna see a lot of Dame and Malik on their heels with pacers guards just coming down at them and getting great shots. Here's Tyres Haliburton cooking the drop coverage again. It's gonna get swinged over. He's gonna dribble over to the right side. Get Malik Beasley again. Watch Malik Beasley die on the screen and just allow an easy little pull up jump shot for Haliburton. You're not seeing things. This is the exact same action, exact same players,

exact same result. Just too comfortable in this matchup again. That's why I look at this as so much of a of a Patrick Beverley series, Like it's gonna be a price to pay because they're not going to be nearly as good offensively. But you gotta you gotta find a way to make Tyres Haliburton uncomfortable, and these Malik and Dame are just completely not up to the task. Here's an example of why Yiannis rolling hard is important.

There was a play I showed you guys earlier. Actually I'm gonna go back to it really quick so I can demonstrate. This was the the three with Tyre TJ McConnell on the ball. So watch as watch as TJ is fighting over the top. How Yannis doesn't roll, so this gets swung over, Dame gets his ball screen as

he's coming off. Jannis just stands here on the perimeter, and if he rolls hard, he creates another option in the offense there, especially with how hard the show this is like watch Obi top and Obi Tompin is way up here. If Jannis is rolling here, Dame probably bails out of this shot and drops it off to Dame with an easy kind of lane towards the basket. Although once again you can see Miles Turner ignoring Brook Lopez

to kind of help around the basket. Let's go back to see what it looks like when Jannis does roll hard. So as you can see here, when Yani sets the screen, we have aaron ne Smith guarding Chris Middleton here on the left wing. But there's a roll gravity. When Jannis goes this hard to the basket, he pulls Aaron Nesmith in. He actually pulls in. It looks like Bruce Brown or that's Miles Turning. He pulls in Bruce, Miles Turner, and

Aaron Nesmith. That opens up this kickout pass to Brook Lopez in the extra pass to Chris Middleton at the top of the key. They need that role gravity from Giannis. He's got a roll every single time. Here's an example of why I love the cleared side pick and roll for the Bucks. This is something I've been preaching forever. They basically don't do it anymore now that Doc Rivers is the coach, which is something that kind of bums me out because I think it's the best configuration of

this pick and roll. But you're gonna see Yana set the screen. When Giannis rolls into the short corner with nobody over here that can dig down on him, it doesn't matter how loaded up these guys are. He has a runway, a runway where he can gather on the left side of his body to protect the basketball and extend out and finish. Watch he's going against two centers here. There's two centers there with Jalen Smith and Miles Turner. He just rips through them both. That's the advantage of

the clear side pick and roll. It just gives him a runway to go to the basket, an uncontested runway that he doesn't have to really face anything until he gets to the rim. Here's an example of using a double drag to create some more separation for Dame. So in this case, it's gonna be a little tougher when it's aaron Ne Smith because this one actually ends up being Ben Matherin on the ball, and Ben Mathern is not as good a defensive player. I shouldn't say on

the ball, but on Chris. But I like the idea of setting this double screen action to help get some more separation from the primary on ball defender for Dame, and he gets a pretty good look here as a result. Here's another example, because this is the counter. The way most teams counter this is they'll just switch the first screen. So we're gonna get our double drag here, but on the double drag you're gonna see Ben Mathern jump out

and switch. See he jumps out and switches, and then this turns into an ISO.

Speaker 2

What I like about that is what if.

Speaker 1

You bring Malik Beasley into the action and have him set the first screen, and then what if Tyre's Halliburton ends up getting caught up into the action as a result. This might be a good one to kind of get free of Andrew Nemhard. This is Brett Bruce Brown obviously, but Andrew Nemhard will be on the ball. But you get free from Andrew Nemhard and maybe get Tyre's Halliburton

involved in the action. And then these last two clips are just examples of Chris Middleton working against Aaron Nesmith, which I think is gonna be one of the key matchups of the series. This is gonna be their secondary offensive creation while Yannis is out and he's just got to find a way to get to work. That's a tough lefty hook that he makes. Again, He's gonna beat

him to spots. Nie Smith is, So it's gonna be so important for Chris Middleton to be able to make shots over the top and use his footwork to get him out of a position. Here's an example of him using a pump fake to get him out of position and draw foul and get to the line. So yeah, that that's gonna be a pretty key matchup for them too. Just yet the ability to get some good secondary creation

from Chris Middleton. All right, so you guys get the point that point of attack defense from Milwaukee's gonna be the key. I think it's gonna be a trade off because I think they're gonna eventually lean heavily into Patrick Beverley to try to slow Halliburton down. But the trade off is I think they're gonna a lot easier guard

with that being the case. They're gonna ignore Patrick Beverley, they're gonna ignore Brook Lopez, and those two specific kind of matchups are gonna allow them to kind of be super aggressive on the ball against Dame and protect the paint.

And so a big part of this is just gonna be shot making on the backside for guys like Patrick Beverley and Brook Lopez as well, and then on the on the other end of the floor again just dealing with that, just packing the paint, trying to ignore Miles Turner, forcing the action towards jump shooting for guys like Pascal Siakam and Miles Turner as much as possible point of

attack defense on Tyres Haliburton to make him uncomfortable as well. Again, as you guys can see from the film, different players involved in the matchup at this point. But the main thing I'm looking at here is with Giannis being out, do you trust this slow Milwaukee Bucks team? And with Dame as inconsistent as he's been facing higher level perimeter defenders than Tyres Haliburton is going to be facing. Is Dame gonna be able to keep this out of two to two series without Giannis?

Speaker 2

I don't think he can so.

Speaker 1

By the time Giannis gets back, I think the Bucks are gonna have to play perfect. And even if I do think they're capable of beating the Pacers, I don't think they can just sweep them like three or four times in a row. And so to me, the odds pretty heavily favor Indiana in that sense. I'm picking Indiana in six. All right, guys, that is all I have

for today. We are going to be back tonight twice, once after Pelicans Lakers that's just going to be a YouTube upload, and then after Sacramento Kings, versus Golden State.

Speaker 2

We will be live on YouTube. I will see you guys then. As always, they appreciate you guys. Seeing a few hours

Speaker 1

The volume

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android
Open in Metacast