Hoops Tonight - Nuggets-Clippers Series Prediction + Preview

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Void in Ontario. New customers only. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume heavy Wednesday. Everybody, hope all you guys are having a great week. We're continuing our series previews today with the Los Angeles Clippers versus the Denver Nuggets. We're gonna do

the same format we've been doing throughout this series. We're gonna do our season series stuff off top the odds in terms of gambling, Denver on offense, the Clippers on offense, the swing factors I see playing a role in this series, and then finally at the end, my pick. You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore jsonlts.

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the remainder of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So Clippers and Nuggets split the season series to two. Not really much there in terms of useful information. Quiet didn't play a single game. Nicole Yoaka's missed a game, Gordon missed a games. Just a lot of different players playing for both teams. I see that a lot in

these series previews, which is unfortunate. You end up digging into like different weird parts of the film to try to find useful information, like oh, what does it look like when this guy guards this guy or vice versa. But there's not a lot of really solid data for some of these playoff matchups, just because of the way the NBA regular season works with load management, injuries and all that kind of stuff. Gambling odds Denver opened as a minus one to sixty five favorite, which, as I

talked about on Monday, I was super surprised by. Regardless of who you actually think will win the series, the Clippers have just been playing much, much better basketball for a long time. The Clippers finished the season series finished the season eighteen and three, and I'd argue They're win on the road in Golden State was the most impressive win I've seen a team get, given the uh, the stakes and everything involved over the course that last third

of the season. That was a super impressive win against a very good Warriors team and a must win game. They're playing great basketball. The Nuggets finished the season eleven and ten, and then they just fired their coach in the middle of the home stretch. Now, to their credit, they've looked a little better in the last couple games of the season. Had a pretty impressive win on the road in Sacramento, Sacramento Kings team that's been pretty feisty.

They looked a little better on defense, but very small sample size there. It's hard to say the Clippers have been playing better, so I would have made them a slight favorite. People seem to agree. The betting line has moved quite a bit. That line has moved all the way down to minus one thirty five for Denver as the favorite on Draft Kings. And again, once again, all of our odds are provided by Draft Kings on Denver's

side of the floor when Denver's on offense. The matchups I expect to see, We'll see Kristin and Jamal Murray, We'll see Zubats on Jokich, and we'll see Kawhi on Aaron Gordon. Those are the obvious ones. I think it gets a little trickier after that, with Norman Powell and James Harden for Michael Porter Junior and Christian Brown. Christian Brown. Excuse me. Both guys can cause problem in different ways. Obviously, MPJ is more of like a spot up player and

Christian Brown is more of like a slasher. Right. I would go to Norman Powell on Michael Porter Junior because I think Norman Powell's pretty solid at lock and trail stuff most shooters are. Most shooters are also the best at defending shooters just because they know their tendencies pretty well. Powell, I would have him lock and trail on MPJ with

Harden on Brown. Brown does most of his work going towards the rim, and that way Harden can kind of camp around and the paint uses size a little bit more. It's worth mentioning Harden did have some really rough off ball defense sequences at the end of the Warriors game. You guys, remember when Gary Payton got blocked at the rim. It was on a play right down there in the final few minutes of the game. It was on a play where Harden just wasn't paying attention and lost Gary

Payton on a cut he himself miraculously recovered. But there was another play where he lost Steph Curry and Steff relocated up to the top of the Key and got a wide open three, and I think it was either Harden or someone else ended up having a run out as base and ended up fouling Steph So Harden can still be a little bit of a space case off the ball, and Christian Brown can do some damage there, but I think setting the matchups up like that, you

get a little less damage on both fronts. Jokic post ups. Jokic didn't go down to the post much against the Clippers this year. In the three games that Jokic played against the Clippers himself, he posted just eleven times. For perspective, do you guys remember when the Spurs and the Nuggets had that back to back where they split the series on each other's home floor. In those two games, Jokic posted twenty five times, So that goes to show you just the difference in how much he's posting based on

the matchup. And the reason is Zubots. Zubats is one of the few players in the league that is nearly as big and strong as Jokiic. Jokic still does have a size advantage there, just not much of one, so he has to rely on more tough shot making. Out of those eleven post ups that Nikola Jokic logged against the Clippers this year. Six of them were direct one

on one post ups with Zoo. In those six post ups, he took three kind of difficult jump shots, a couple face ups and then the somber shelf will kind of turn it over his left shoulder, and then three hook shots. He went one for six on those shots and didn't draw a single foul. Of the three hook shots that he missed, he missed all three of them. One of them was kind of a tough, sweeping left handed hook that Zoo defended really well. Another one was kind of

like a contact hook that Zoo defended really well. But there was a third one that Jokic got right to the front of the ram over his left shoulder, and he just smoked a very easy layup and a couple of the face up jumpers. He looked pretty comfortable. So I think that even though Jokic went one for six again Zoo in the regular season, in the post I do think Zoo. I do think Jokic can have some success there. I just don't think it's gonna be something

he's gonna do a ton. I think we'll see it in rescue situation, so like late shot clock, maybe something crunch time. I just don't think we'll see it like a super high volume of Yokic post ups agains zubots, just because he doesn't have as much of an advantage there as he does in other matchups. I do think we'll see over the course of the series a dozen or so Jokic post ups against Smalls in like transition

cross matches, pick and roll switches, stuff like that. Jokic in the post will play a role in the series, just less so than it would in other matchups. Over the course of the season. Jokic's work in this matchup has been super diversified. Some pick and roll as the handler, some pick and roll as the screener, a little bit of posting mismatches, a lot of three point attempts he's taken seven threes per game against the Clippers this year, a lot of spot ups to sixteen spot up possessions

that he locks. So he's doing a lot of work where others are working, and he's just sitting out at the three point line capitalizing on Zoo sinking down into the paint. Lots of pick and pop stuff as well. That's really high three point volume for Jokic seven per game, also shot over fifty percent on those threes against the Clippers the two man game. Now, as we know, the Clippers are going to have forty eight minutes of top tier perimeter defender to put on Jamal Murray or Russell Westbrook,

Julian Strather, whoever it is. I think we'll see a little. I think we'll see a lot less Julian Strather than we did in the regular season, just because James Harden hunted him relentlessly in this matchup and to great effect. So I'm not sure how much we'll see Strawther, but we're gonna see a lot of Jamal Murray obviously, We're gonna see a lot Russell Westbrook, and you're gonna see a lot of Derek Jones and Chris Dunn on those guys.

Jamal held up pretty well in terms of efficiency. He was good for twenty points a game in the matchup, over fifty percent from the field, over fifty percent from three no high volume nights. Though his season high in this matchup was twenty two points. It's not like he was getting off in any of the matchups. They absolutely can get the ball to Jokic, though in the pocket in pick and roll he's drawing a crowd there. He was playmaking out of that a lot in this matchup

this year. The Nuggets did a lot of damage to the Clippers on cuts, on spot ups, just various things out of pick and roll from the attention devoted towards Murray and Jokic. The transition battle will be huge here too. The Clippers gave up twenty three points per game just in fast break points against the Nuggets this year. So the keys for Denver on this side of the floor they need to run out in transition as much as possible. Get Christian Brown in the open floor of a hard

and can't handle him. Get Jokic as many transition cross matches as possible. Get Jamal Murray freed up from the ball pressure that he could potentially face from Chris Dunn and Derek Jones Junior. That's what you can accomplish by getting out in transition. Supporting scoring is going to be huge. Denver's defense isn't very good. We're going to talk about it in a minute. So this is going to have to be a series where the Nuggets log a you know,

one to twenty seven type of offensive rating. And the only way they're going to do that is if they get reliable supporting scoring from Jamal Or, from Aaron Gordon, from Michael Porter Junior, from Russell Westbrook. Right, these guys are all gonna need to score consistently. And by the way, Clippers fans, watch out for Aaron Gordon. This is not the same Aaron Gordon. You remember, he's shooting forty seven percent from three on over four attempts per game since

early February. He's just a good shooter. Now. You can see it in the form you could see it in like his confidence. He's taken him in crunch time. He's taken lots of them. He built a gym at his house and put in all the work and now he's just a good shooter. So that's something that you have to keep an eye on in terms of like gapping off of guys and letting them shoot. Letting Aaron Gordon shoot will backfire. It's gonna have to be someone else

in that situation. Managing Russell Westbrook's decision making is going to be key. David Adlman is done a nice job in the early part of his tenure here of managing Russ's minutes based on where he's at mentally in a game. Russ, as we know, has the potential to do a lot

of damage to his own team period of time. But Russ is also one of the most devastating playoff athletes I've ever seen, and even in this late phase of his career, he can be a profoundly impactful athlete in the playoffs when the physicality ramps up, when the intensity

ramps up, as long as his role is smaller. Right two years ago with the Clippers in the first round series against the Suns, before Kawhi got hurt, Russ didn't have much of an offensive role and he was just deployed as like this perimeter defender on Devin Booker, and he was devastating. I think he'll get reps on Kawhi. I think he'll get reps on James Harden, and I

think he'll look really, really good in those reps. But he'll have to win, Like David Adaman, will have to weigh all of that with how he's kind of like managing the game offensively to see what makes the most sense. I do think we'll see more of Russ than Jalen Pickett in this series, just because young players in general can have a little bit of like a of an adjustment period when it gets to the postseason. Jalen Pickett is a smart basketball player. He's a control basketball player.

Among young basketball players that I've watched, he's pretty mature. But playoffs are a different animal. That's another swing factor here. What are you getting out of Jalen Pickett in Russell Westbrook? Are you getting a reliable performance out of one of those two guys keys for the Clippers. Pressure the hell out of Jamal Murray with physicality all the time at every point in the series. He's just coming back from

an injury. He's a little bit out of rhythm. If you can do some damage to Murray, if you can cut that part of the offense out, you could put this offense in a really, really precarious situation. Stay out of transition as much as possible. That means good shots, selection, no turnovers, and sprint the hell back. Don't get yourself caught playing in a track meet with Denver because they'll

beat you there. Swarm Denver's better offensive players, and tilt your rotations towards allowing threes for guys like Christian Brown, Jalen Pickett, in Russell Westbrook. Those guys can and will hit shots this season or in this series. I mean, but they can also go very cold, and you can gain some ground in stretches when they go cold. That's

where you need to tilt the offense. If you let those guys, if you let everyone else play comfortable at the expense of taking away those shots, that's where you can really get torched. Moving to the Clippers on offense, the matchups I expect that we'll see. I think we'll see Yokich on Zubots obviously, Christian Brown on James Harden. I think we'll see Aaron Gordon on Kawhi, Michael Porter Junior on Norm Powell, and Jamal Murray on Chris Stunn.

I'm really nervous about the Nuggets on this side of the floor. Post All Star Break, the Nuggets have been the twenty third best defense in the league. They have a one eighteen defensive rating, and they've been bad at every level of their defense. They've been bad at the point of attack. Jokic has been bad and is at the level coverages, and their backside rotations have been bad. I also think it's just a tough matchup for Denver's

defense in general. The only like really favorable natural matchup for them is Jokic on Zoo as like a post up and rebounding threat. But even then that could get tricky in pick and roll. When Jokic has to go up to the level and Zoo gets behind him, then he's got inside position and he can do some damage there. So let's start with the pick and roll part of it. In Norman Powell screening actions and James Harden screening actions,

they're going to bring Yokic up to the level. Both of them are way too good as pull up shooters, and that's just kind of Denver's base playoff coverage anyway, the other guy is going to be off the ball

in that situation. Ironically, in the November thirtieth game that I was watching earlier this morning, there was a sequence in the second half where the Clippers generated multiple consecutive wide open threes for James Harden by running Norman Powell screening actions on the opposite side, two on the ball,

drop to Zoo, four on three. James Harden's wide open on the wing hit them both, Like, there's going to be easy opportunities for the Clippers to generate those four on threes by having Norman Powell or James Harden coming off of those screening actions. A lot of it is going to be about setting up the sequencing, setting up the spacing to make it more difficult for the Nuggets. Like you want to have Zoo rolling into the middle, which means you need to run those ball screens towards

the sideline. So having Norman Power James Harden and let's say he's on the left side, you want to almost screen him towards the sideline because if you screen him towards the sideline and Yokic steps up, Zoo's rolling right to the elbow, and when he rolls to the elbow,

it's an easy little pass there. And as he turns, it's a two to on one because the guy who comes up and tags Zoo is the guy that's coming off of the corner and the guy who's guarding the wing is dropping to the corner or playing in between those two, and Zoo can then make a pass, fake, or do whatever he needs to do to read that two on one to create that passing angle when they set up their spacing and they're sequencing properly, those catches in the middle of the floor for Zoo were getting

them great shots. And again, like we talked about, Zoo had twelve offensive rebounds in just the games against Denver this year, So there is an opportunity there for him when he gets behind Jokic in those ball screens as Jokic goes up to the level for them to do some damage. Also, we talked about James Harden getting those catch and shoots. Norman Powell is a very very good

closeout attacker. You guys saw that at the end of the Warriors game, right close out attack off of the left wing where he got a scooping layup in the middle, and then another one out of the left corner where he got the reverse layup. That was all off of attention drawn on the strong side. Those hardened ball screens that draw that extra defender are going to get a lot of opportunities for Norman Powell to attack from the

weak side. Also in ball screens, different kind guard guard ball ball screens, James Harden will do a lot of matchup hunting here. He talked earlier about how he did a ton of it against Julian Strawther, but he also did a lot of it against Jamal Murray in this matchup, setting up his ISOs getting into a step back three driving, getting to the foul line. That's another thing that the Clippers are going to be able to go to in the half court that I think they will have some

success with Aaron Gordon on Kawhi Leonard. This is a natural matchup in terms of the one on one Aaron Gordon is actually one of the better defenders I've seen in the Western Conference, specifically at guarding the power, you know, size oriented wings in the league, So like Lebron you know, Cole, Kevin Durant, you know, like even against guys inn Eastern Conference like Jason Tatum or a you know, a Pala Bancaro, that kind of stuff. Like Aaron Gordon is a very

good matchup for that type of player. But the issue that you have with Denver is Michael Porter Juniors having one of his worst defensive seasons post All Star Break. The Nuggets have almost a one to twenty one defensive rating with Michael Porter Junior on the floor. If you put Aaron Gordon as the guy who's guarding Kawhi out

on the perimeter. Kawhi, who's just been Robot Kawhi, the Kawhi that we have grown to recognize as one of the most devastating playoff players in the league when he's healthy. That pulls Aaron Gordon away from the low man situations

that he can be more impactful. Other than Peyton Watson, I'd argue, I'd argue, Aaron Gordon is your best lowman defender, so pulling him out to deal with Kawhi just could leave them in some precarious situations where it's like just Michael Porter Junior on the back line where he's been an issue. And there's also a little bit of a quickness thing that's starting to show up with Kawhi, where he's starting to get separation just ripping through and driving

on these guys. And again, Aaron Gordon is a little bit better equipped to deal with some of the power stuff that Kawi does because he's big and strong and also has size on Kawhi. But there's a little bit of a quickness advantage there for Kawhi that wasn't showing like a month ago, but now is really starting to show and I think that that's something that could swing the series if Kawhi just proved to be too fast for a guy like Aaron Gordon. I do think we'll

see some Christian Brown here. I do think we'll see some Russell Westbrook here as well. But you know, Kawi is just in one of those zones right now, and it might not matter who's on him. Keys for Denver. Denver's pick and roll defense, like they just that, it's all three levels, right, have to do a better job

of pressuring the ball. Then when the ball gets into the ball screen, Jokic has to do a better job of pressuring the ball on his side of the ball screen, on his side of the bracket, getting his hands up, being active, making those passes go through tough windows, deflections, having to throw them looping over the top, stuff that makes your rotations easier. And then obviously that third piece of it is those backside rotations. They have to be

sharp in this series testing other defenders on Kawhi. We talked about Aaron Gordon as your second best back line defender. If you can find a different defender that can do a decent job on Kawhi, Leonard, then you can keep Aaron Gordon on the back line, which raises the floor of your defense considerably, playing more defensive personnel and counting

on Jokic to raise the offense. This is something that I would think of as a big picture goal for the Nuggets in terms of roster building after this season. But like if Michael Porter Junior isn't in the game, mentally, more Peyton Watson, play Peyton next to Aaron Gordon, lean into your defensive personnel, and count on the fact that Nikole Jokic can generate those guys easier opportunities on the other ends of the floor. Keys for the Clippers, I would lean a lot more on James Harden than I

would on Kawhi Leonard in this series. The nuggets Achilles heel is their pick and roll defense, and Kawhi will get to play a lot in the get to be aggressive, a lot in the opportunities where James Harden's off the floor, in second side opportunities, when the Nuggets do defend a Harden pick and roll well, in crunch time, that sort of stuff. He's gonna have his opportunities. But I like the idea of James Harden and him getting two to the ball as a foundational concept for the Clippers to

play with an advantage in the entire series. I'd lean on a lot of James Harden pick and roll in this series. Norman Pallin but bog Don mcdonovich supporting scoring. Denver is very good offense. They will score quite a bit in the series. Even when the Clippers do everything right, it will turn into a shootout at points. The shot making of Norman Powell and bog Don mcdonovitch will be

really really important for the Clippers in this series. And then Chris Dunn and Dereck Jones junior hitting spot up threes. Chris Dunn went three for three against the Warriors. That was a huge part of that game, played really well out of some double teams of Kawhi Enard late. If you tilt things towards Chris Dunn and he misses, that could be a big swing factor in this series as well.

And so as we look at the swing factors for both teams, the play of Russell Westbrook, just because he has such a high ceiling and such a high floor which direction that tilts, could play a huge role. The Nuggets young guys like how much do you get out of Peyton Watson. How much do you get out of Jalen Pickett in a series like this? Norman Powell, excuse me, Chris Dunn and Derreck Jones Junior and their spot up

shooting like we talked about earlier. And then lastly, Kawhi's health. Obviously, this is going to be different than playing one super important regular season game. This is going to be a two week long battle with the Nuggets, and we got to see if Kawhi's knee can hold up my pick. This has been the hardest series for me to pick so far. So out of all the series that picked

easily the closest margin. I do believe the Clippers are a slightly better team, but I think Jokic is the best player in the series by a decent margin, which I think matters. And the Nuggets have home court, so that's what kind of made this super tough for me.

That said, I'm picking the Clippers in six games. Going back to the comfort thing I talked about yesterday, it really comes down to me which defense has the better chance of making the opposing offense uncomfortable, and through Derek Jones, you and You're and Chris Dunn, pressuring Jamal Murray, through Zoo's size on Jokic, through the Clippers just genuinely being

a better defensive rotation team. I think they're going to be able to do more to make Denver's offense uncomfortable than the other end of the floor, where Denver is this abhorrent defense and the Clippers are really starting to find some formulas that are working for them on the offensive end of the floor. So my prediction is that Jokic is awesome, but that Murray and the rest of the Nuggets struggled to be consistently good on offense, and that the Clippers end up getting this done. That's all

I have for to get today, guys. Is always. I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. I'll see you guys next time. What's up guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The volume