Hoops Tonight - NBA Team Rankings: Why Zion Williamson means EVERYTHING for the Pelicans success

the end of the show as well. You guys are the joke. Before we get started, follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt for show announcements. Make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel. Don't forget you can find us wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight. And I need mail bag questions, so drop those in the YouTube comments as well. And then, last but not least, before we get started. You know, my wife and I have struggled a lot with this over the last couple

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So the New Orleans Pelicans the little recap of their offseason. They lost Jackson Hayes, Willie ern and Gomez, Josh Richardson, and Garrett Temple. They added Jordan Hawkins as their first round draft pick. He's a movement shooter out of Yukon.

Little undersize six ' four and a quarter without shoes on, so that's roughly six five and a half with shoes on six to seven wingspan, so not going to be a very physically impressive athlete at the position, but he is one of the best movement shooters in the country in the college game last year. Really really good footwork coming off screens. We talked about this last a Spurs show at the very end where we're talking about drills.

But in order to successfully get shots off in every situation, you have to have footwork going to your left and to your right, and that's a really challenging part for shooters because most shooters like to have like their right foot. Right handed shooters like to have their right foot forward, and so that means as you're coming around screens, you have to plant your left foot. If you're coming this way, you have to plant your left foot and then plant

your right foot and square up in mid air. It's challenging and a lot of players don't know how to do it. It's a bit of a lost art actually, especially movement shooting in general. And Jordan Hawkins is great at this. He flies off of screens, gets quick easy lift as a nice quick release. It's gonna be an interesting weapon to add to the Pelicans attack. This year. He converted off screen possessions at Yukon and at one point two to two points per possession last year. That's

insanely good. There were only five players in the college game last year to log at least one hundred off screen plays, and he was number one by a mile in efficiency in that group. That is kind of a dying art, the idea of running around off of screens

and rising up and hitting shots. For whatever reason, the game has kind of transitioned into every kid wants to handle the basketball, and that's why we don't have many guys that can score out of the post efficiently, not just bigs, but also guards as well, and that's why we don't have many guards who know how to play off the ball. I think that's an important element to some of the struggles we've seen with Team USA, as we've seen stars move into that environment and struggle. I

think that's a part of brandon ingram struggles. He just unless he's running, you know, twenty five pick and rolls, ISOs and post ups a game, he just struggles to impact winning right And I think that's it's kind of interesting to see a guy like Jordan Hawkins that has made work out of learning how to play off the ball in this modern era as we lower the volume. So he was number one out of five guys to

run at least one hundred. But even to demonstrate to you guys just how efficient he was, if I dropped that qualifier down to fifty possessions, there were ninety players that qualified and he still finished number eight in that group inefficiency, so an outstanding off of screen player. He also converted spot up possessions at a one point two eight points per possession clip, which is ridiculous. That's in

that like Michael Porter Junior, absolutely deadly territory. Right. As a shot maker, he was sixty three percent in effective field goal percentage on catch and shoot jumpers. That's insane. Sixty seven percent when he's guarded, which means he doesn't need much space and he's not bothered by contests, and he shot well on a big stage. In the NCAA Tournament last year, he took thirty three jump shots and

converted them at a sixty six percent effective field goal percentage. Downsides, he was only thirty five percent effective field goal percentage and jump shots off the bounce, which is not great. So not a guy who can put the ball on the floor. Well, he was only one for three thirteen on floaters, so he doesn't have anything before he gets to the rim, and then he shot just fifty three

percent at the rim. So obviously the stuff he's gonna have to polish up in the NBA is the stuff when he does get chased off the line and he has to put the ball on the floor towards the basket. But we've seen that happen. We've seen guys like Duncan Robinson add that in recent years, and when they do,

they instantly become a lot more playable. And so really it comes down to can you learn to put the ball on the floor a little bit and will he be able to translate to the NBA as a defender, because that's kind of like the crossroads for these high

volume movement shooters. Are you gonna be Klay Thompson esque or are you gonna be Malik Beasley esque because Lague Beasley takes a lot off the dribble or off the move shots, but doesn't make him at a super high clip, doesn't impact the game defensively, doesn't put the ball on the floor. Well, Klay Thompson understands how to use escape dribbles turned himself into an above average in his prime,

even a great perimeter defensive player. So that's gonna be kind of the delineation for Jordan Hawkins as Canny learn how to defend. But a really really interesting movement shooter to add to a team that needs guys who know how to play off the ball with the on ball talent that they have. They also signed Cody Zeller as a backup center. He was sixteen points and eleven rebounds per thirty six minutes in fifteen regular season games for the Heat last year, and then ten to ten per

thirty six minutes in twenty one playoff games last year. Now, I always use per thirty six for bench players because it just gives you an idea of how much production they're providing in their limited minutes, and thirty six is kind of general for what you'd expect from a starter, right.

So the depth chart at the guard position, they have CJ McCollum, Naji Marshall, one of my favorite, like shifty good handle, kind of like hoopers in the league, Jose Alvardo, Kira Lewis, Jordan Hawkins, and then the forward Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy and Dyson Daniels. And then for the bigs, they've got Fionas Valanciunis, Larry Nantz Junior, and Cody Zeller. The starters win their health should be CJ.

McCollum at the point, Herb Jones at the two, brandon Ingram at the three, Zion Williams at the Williamson at the four, and Yonas Valanciunas at the five. We also found out that Trey Murphy torres meniscus in an offseason workout, so he's gonna miss the first couple months of the season, obviously a big blow because he's one of their best shooters and one of the best, like kind of up and coming young scores in the NBA. So hopefully he can get healthy and make the leap that we're all

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after issuance. Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. I want to take a brief look at what they do offensively, some things to look for in terms of progression of their ball handlers. Then we'll talk a little bit about the defensive end as well. So this team has a lot of ball handling. Obviously we think of CJ. McCom and brandon ingram as like the offensive Fulkrums, But make no mistake, this is a team that likes to attack the paint.

Even without Zion Williamson, they were eighth in paint points per one hundred possessions last year in the entire NBA. They ran seven hundred and forty two post ups last year. That was third in the entire league, behind just the Denver Nuggets and the Milwaukee Bucks. Spearheaded by Yonis Valanciunas, he ran four hundred post ups last year, which is huge volume for a single player in the modern NBA.

That led to four hundred and sixteen points last year including passes, So that's one point zero four points per possession, which is very good. Now among the high volume guys, there's nine guys in the league ran at least three hundred post ups. Jonas came in an eighth out of the nine players, so among the high volume guys, he's one of the least efficient, but he is an efficient post player at high volume. Zion Williamson also ran one hundred and seventy post ups last year, leading to one

hundred and eighty five points. That's one point zer or nine points per possession in the sixty eighth percentile. Including passes. Zion was just completely off the charts good in ISO situations. They would either clear the side entirely and let him operate with an empty side, or they'd go five out and let him attack from the wing with the shooter in the strong side corner that didn't want to help, where the defender didn't want to help, but he would

just there wasn't anything like tactically impressive about it. He just beats his man off the dribble towards the middle of the floor and either rises up over everybody and finishes, or makes a kickout pass to a shooter or a drop off pass to a cutter. Forty eight players ran at least one hundred and fifty ISOs last year. Zion's one point one point eight points per possession, finished third out of those forty eight players, So one of the best isolation players in the league last year. It's just

impossible to keep him in front off the dribble. And you know, everything that we talk about today comes down to whether or not Zion is actually going to be available, healthy, in shape, and capable of withstanding an eighty two game regular season and potentially a playoff rount. At the end of the day, he is their most important player and everything hinges on him. We're going to talk about the team as a whole, but as we talk about their

ultimate ceiling this year, everything comes down to Zion. So we talked about Zion and Yonis Valencunas attacking the paint, but this is also a team that loves to attack the offensive glass. They had two hundred and seventy two made field goals last year off of offensive rebound putbacks. That was the sixth most in the entire NBA last year. And surprisingly enough, teams that attack the offensive glass tend to have issues in transition defense. Not the New Orleans Pelicans.

They give up a lot of transition opportunities. They were the nineteenth best team at preventing transition opportunities. So they gave up a lot of transition opportunities, but they were an excellent transition defense. According to Cleaning the Glass, they were tenth in transition defensive rating. So that's a credit to Willie Green and him just getting these guys to play really hard sprinting back in transition, communicating and getting matched up when they get back there. As a spacing team,

they're very good as well. They were ninth in spot up efficiency at one point zero seven points per possession. That's excellent for a team that constantly tries to attack the paint. That tells you that they're generating high quality spot up opportunities and they are converting them well. Now, pick and roll obviously is a very important part of any NBA offense. They don't run as much of it as other teams in the league. They're bottom ten in frequency.

They're also nineteenth in efficiency. Brandon Ingram was great at it one point zero three points per possession including passes. That was in the sixty eighth percentile. I've talked a lot about brandon Ingram in our player rankings. He's one of my favorite pick and roll passers in the league. He just has the ability to see over the top of the defense and make the reads that a lot

of guys can't make. And he's excellent with the cross court pass to the weak side corner, which is one of the most important elements to beating a pick and roll defense, particularly when they try to guard three on two by bringing the lowman over out of the weak side corner. The world cut thing with Brandon Ingram, I don't overthink it. If I were you guys like I don't think it's an indication of limitations that Brandon Ingram

has in the big picture. Like, yeah, if we tuck him in the corner and have him playoff ball for large portions of games, he's not gonna be as impactful as somebody who's done that his entire life. Brandon Ingram is a guy who's a primary ball hand alert and that's the way he should be judged. Is there a larger conversation we should have about whether or not guys are being well like in terms of their development as kids. Are they getting enough of a well rounded basketball development.

That's a conversation we can have. I don't think it's a coincidence when you see defensive minded, role playing forwards that become stars, they tend to be very well rounded as stars. Right, That's where you get your Jimmy Butler's and your Kawhi Leonards and your Paul George's. And this next one is this Jabari Smith Junior or so to

a ton of flashes in Summer League this year. I think that that's an indicator of the fact that we would be better served in our in basketball player development in America by giving kids a more well rounded basketball training experience. But the reality is is this is what it is. And Brandon Ingram is a primary ball handler, and he's one of the best pick and roll passers

in the league. And he's got to run a lot of pick and rolls, and he's run a lot of ISOs and post ups, and that's what he does best. And so you know, really it doesn't matter in the big pictures, So I don't really look too much into his World Cup struggles. In terms of Brandon Ingram's standing in the NBA, CJ. McCollum was much closer to averages pick and roll ball handler one point zero zero points per possession flat. That's in the sixtieth percentile really rough

shooting year. He only made He only shot forty six percent in effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots. Last year, To give you guys some perspective, his last full season in Portland, he shot fifty three percent in effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots. And remember, like you want to be like forty eight at the lowest, preferably in the low fifties, and the best players in

the league are in the mid fifties. And like the Steph Curry Kevin Durant tier, which is like alien best players in basketball history at pull up jump shots, those guys are at about sixty percent, But forty six percent just isn't going to get the job done. He's a pull up jump shooter, and if he's not making pull up jump shots, his impact is gonna suffer. So really, pick and roll is probably their biggest area for improvement as a team, and it really just comes down to CJ.

McCollum has to play a little better, and I think Brandon Ingram could even get up from that one point zero three closer to one point one points per possessions. I'd like to see both of them make improvements there on the defensive end. They finished sixth in the NBA in defensive rating overall last year, sixth and half court defense according to Cleaning the last tenth in transition defense.

I thought the key to the Pelicans defense last year was their point of attack defense, which was excellent, and the rotations they made on the weak side. Having a guy like IRB Jones is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. To throw out the other team's best player, a guy that can sidle over the top of screen and offer really quality contests from behind, that's a massive advantage to have as a team. Overall. They

just have a ton of wing athleticism. When they're going out there and you've got you know, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, and IRB Jones all on the floor at the same time. That's three dudes that all can jump out of the gym and have super long arms. That's a huge weapon to have in rotation. So like now, let's say that defense does give up a driving lane and there's a kickout pass made. These guys can cover ground and close

out and chase guys off the line. They were actually really really good last year at chasing guys off of spot up possessions. They had the seventh best defense in the league last year containing spot up possessions. So that's a credit to Willie Green. I think. I think he's just once again has these guys playing really, really hard and committed to the details and giving them everything he's got in terms everything they've got in terms of buying.

Biggest weakness in the Pelicans defense's rim protection. Yonnas Stalaciunas is just not particularly good at it. They were a middle of the pack paint defense in terms of paint points allowed, and they allowed oponents to shoot seventy one point two percent in the restricted area, which was dead last in the NBA last year. We'll talk a little bit more about their defense when we talk about their

ultimate ceiling this year. The biggest swing factor for this entire season, like I said at the beginning, is going to be Zion. Will he show up to camp in shape. Is he going to be able to withstand the wear and tear of an eighty two game regular season. That's

gonna be the biggest factor. They finished the season forty two and forty last year, which is barely over five hundred, but they were seventeen and twelve when Zion Williamson played, they had a plus eight net rating when Zion was on the floor, so they outscored teams by eight points

per one hundred possessions. They were about even minus zero point two points per one hundred posessions when Zion Williamson was off the floor last year, So that's and looking closely at it, four points worse on defense per one hundred possessions and four points worse on offense per one hundred possessions. So like at the end of the day, Zion is the primary factor in what the Pelicans are

capable of this season. So my prediction, if Zion can stay healthy, I think this team can finish above the play in, which is saying a lot in a Western Conference that is totally stacked. Now, win totals overall are going to be lower because there's a ton of good teams in the Western Conference and they're gonna beating up on each other. So I think that they're gonna win

about forty five games. If Zion can play at least sixty games, forty five wins in the Western Conference this year should get you out of the play in that should have you in that four or five six seed area. So that's what I'm looking at if Zion's available for at least three fourths of the season. Without Zion, they're

a five hundred basketball team. They just have too many limitations defensively in the paint, and they don't generate enough rim pressure as a basketball team beyond Jonas Valenciunas to consistently generate quality shots, too reliant on pull up jump shooting. So Zion really is the old commit factor in determining what this team can do. As for their title chances, NBA history tells us that you don't win the title

unless you have a top tier defensive front court. Right Like, let's look back forget about the Nuggets for a second. We'll come back to them, But you go to the Warriors, You've got Andrew Wiggins, who was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and Draymond Green, one of the best defenders of this era. The year before that, Gianna Santanna Kombo and Brook Lopez. The year before that, Lebron James, Anthony Davis the year before that, Kawhi Leonard

Serge Ibaka. The year before that, Katie Draymond, Katie Draymond Lebron and Tristan Thompson, Iguodala and Draymond Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan, Lebron and Chris Bosh Lebron and Chris Bosh, Tyson, Chandler Gasol buying him, Gasol buying them, Kevin Garnett and

Kendrick Perkins. You guys get the point. I'm not going to go any further with exception of the Denver Nuggets, which again you have to remember, they were not an elite defensive front court, but they were one of the most unguardable playoff offenses I've ever seen, fueled by one of the best offensive playoff runs we've ever seen from Nikole Jokis. So they are literally the exception that proves the rule. And we can say a lot about the Pelicans this coming year. They are not the Denver Nuggets.

They are not going to be a team that generates offense as easily as the Denver Nuggets do in the playoffs. And so you've got to ask yourself, is Ion Williamson or Jonas Valanciunas even in the same ballpark as the other front courts. I just threw at you that's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen. So before Denver, we had fifteen consecutive NBA champions that

all had elite defensive front courts. So you're just not gonna get it done typically in NBA history without that. So obviously the best indicator of future performance is past performance. So no, I don't think that this Pelicans team is capable of winning an NBA championship. That said, they're a really fun young team that's fun to watch. And it's not about this year. It's about the bigger picture. It's

about Brandon Ingram's development, It's about Zion Williamson's development. It's about which of these other young guys are going to pop. And then in the long run, they're gonna need to find a legitimate rim protector that they can put next design Williamson that can anchor a championship defense. Once they've accomplished that, then all those young guys will hopefully have developed to the point where they're capable of carrying them

over the top offensively. Now you've got yourself a championship quality team, I mean, even next to Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. They've got a plethora of talented young wings. David Griffin's done a really nice job, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels. This is an exciting young team. They just need to find a legitimate championship anchor as a rim protector at the center position in the long run. All right, let's do a couple of mailback questions before we get

out of here today. First one from Caleb, what do you think Jason Tatum has to do to take over as the best player in the NBA. He is only twenty five and has already been to multiple conference finals in an NBA final, Good question, Caleb. I don't think there's much there one diversity of shot creation. We talked about this a lot during the playoff run this year. He's got to get away from the analytical approach of just taking pull up threes and trying to shoot at

the rim. He needs to add real variety to his offensive approach. That means a lot more face up reps, a lot more post up reps, high post, low post, a lot more attacking off of off of action. He's got to find ways to be more diverse offensively. A lot more off ball attack flow. He's a good enough shooter to come off a screens and shoot more than he does, so I'd love to just see him diversify

his offensive approach to embracing the playmaking role more. He's a very good passer when he has his brain in that in that space when he's actually looking to pass. And then lastly, he's got to recommit to the defensive end. The year before last he was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. This last year he wasn't. He's got to improve his commitment on that end of the floor. And with as much talent as this roster has, there's no excuse for not devoting that level of attention

to that end of the floor. But the biggest thing there is like, when you really think about his experience that he has, like it feels like he's right there, which leads into our second male bad question. So another this is also going to tie back to the Celtics. This is from Fabian of the twenty twenty three NBA All Stars who have not won a championship yet, which player will be the next to win their first ring? So I'm interpreting this as which players most likely to

win their first ring. Now, if you look at the Al Stars, there's a lot of guys in there that could do it soon. Joel Embiid could do it soon. He could very well do it this year. Luka Doncic could do it soon. He could very well do it this year. But I'm gonna go with Jason Tatum again. And the main reason why is because one, they have the most talented roster in the NBA. Two, they address one of their specific needs, which was a front court

that was kind of unbalanced. They either had to play rim protection with Robert Williams and suffer in terms of spacing, or play Al Horford at the center. And Al Horford is starting to get a little older and starting to become a little bit less reliable, and so it was becoming a problem. Adding Kristaps porzingis in there a guy who should be able to provide both at a high level that legitimately pushes them to another level in terms

of their talent. And so when I byd that with Jason Tatum suffering an important lesson and a loss this year about his shot variety at something I think he started to address towards the end of that Miami Heat series and with all of his experience, that experience is very important for feeling comfortable in that environment. I think it's on the table that Jason Tatum could pop in a big way this year and lead his team to

a championship. So I have him as the most likely player who is who made the Alcar team last year but is not a champion to win his first ring this year. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. Don't forget to drop mail back questions in the YouTube comments. I will see you guys tomorrow for number eighteen of Volume M