Hoops Tonight - NBA Questions: Celtics & Thunder COLLISION COURSE? Lakers & Warriors Finals threats?

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here in the US. Will not be discus that in any capacity, but I do have the guys from Nerd, SSH, Logan and Carson coming to join us for five big questions surrounding the NBA. We're going to talk a little bit about our top tier of contenders, whether or not we should be making any tweaks to that after the first few weeks of the season, we're going to talk about the two biggest surprises in the league, the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. I'm gonna I want

to spend some time on the Phoenix Suns. They're a team that we haven't hit in the last few days, and they're off to an equally impressive start against a very tough schedule thanks to some late game shot making from Kevin Durant. We're talk a little bit of MAVs, talk, a little Lakers, and then the two biggest disappointments in the NBA in my opinion this season, the Milwaukee Bucks and the Denver Nuggets. So we're gonna be bouncing all around the NBA. It's gonna be a lot of fun.

Let's go ahead and get started. Let's start with the top tier of contenders. So, Carson and Logan, I started the season with four teams in my top tier. I had Boston for obvious reasons, defending champ incredibly dominant last year, even though they didn't really face much in the way of adversity along the way. I think that they would have done well had they faced adversity given the talent and the level of basketball that they were playing, and I think that they were just a shoe in right

Oklahoma City at Hartenstein at Caruso. To kind of get into that point where they're nearly as talented as Boston, you've got to include them. Denver for me, was Jokich's the biggest matchup problem in the NBA. And then I thought people were a little low on them after everything that went down last year, basically them coming this close to making it to the Western Conference Finals despite a

lot of stuff going against them. And then the New York Knicks after trading Frog and Andobi at the tail end of last year, getting Michael Bridges and Karl Anthony Towns and they're super talented starting five. But Boston and Oklahoma City have run away with things here early. I think they're what thirteen and one or something like that to start the year. But the Knicks and the Nuggets. The Knicks aren't three and three, the Nuggets at four

and three, so both slow out the gate. Is it clear that there's a kind of a rift forming between those groups? I like, should we consider changing our top tier contender list to just Boston and Oklahoma City. Let's start with you, Carson, what do you think?

Boston and Okase. And then I viewed Denver as a team that was.

the best that we've seen in a long time. They have a defensive rating under ninety four after seven games, they're forcing almost twenty one turnovers per game. Like these are just comical numbers, and even through seven games, like the sample size is small, but that's still a relatively long period to hold up these sort of ridiculous, disgusting numbers. It's just one of the most disruptive defenses that we've seen in a long time. They have an all world

rim protector in Chet. They have the best perimeter defense in basketball around him. There's just ridiculous length and athleticism and activity and collective IQ all around him.

they cause. And I legitimately think they have four all defense caliber players. Chet is a no brainer Caruso lou Dort.

I think Cason Wallace is playing at that level. I think that he is an absolute hound defensively, and maybe the craziest stat about their defense to start this year, they have a ninety one defensive rating with Chet on the floor, which is like incomprehensible, right, they also have a sub ninety eight defensive rating with him off the floor, and that's without Hartenstein, who's heard, and that's without Jay Will.

So they're doing those with five guard lineups, with lineups that don't have a big on the floor, they are just so ferocious thing for so many turnovers that teams

can't score on them, and those looks either. So that's really what is so remarkable to me about Okay, see, it is the defensive end of the floor, but it's also just that versatility and it's that depth in terms of the lethal defensive lineups they can play and the legal offense lineups they can play, going two bigs with Hartenstein out there, going small with Chet at the five, and Chet has taken a leap on offense, and that's another reason that I'm super high on this team. The

production the last three games hasn't really been there. He's been in some foul trouble. He hasn't played too many minutes, but he clearly looks more confident as a driver. He just looks more aggressive out there offensively, and I think that he is probably like a top twenty player in basketball right now with what he's doing on the defensive end. And that's the other thing. I think this Okase offense

is just going to continue to look better. They're nineteenth in offensive rating right now and there's still number one in net rating. I think that they have the talent to be a top five offense with all the athleticism and with all the playmaking and driving and shot creation they have on the floor. And I do think that with Hertenstein out there, they are more built for the physical battle of the playoffs, which was the big question

last year. You have experience, but you also just have the slightness of that team struggling on the glass, right can they deal with some of these monsters in the post a Nikole Yoelkic like Minnesota last year, which was

just huge with their two bigs. I do think if they're better equipped to do that, and all the young guys are getting better, and when you look at Denver when you look at New York, Like, even if you don't think the sky is falling for those teams, which I don't, they are just way more flawed.

to really matter against anybody other than Boston.

two thousand. The next two teams that you look at are the two thousand and four Pistons in the two thousand and four Spurs.

So I do it starts with this defense, and obviously, when we look back to what held them back in the playoffs last year, Chet's gonna have to pull his weight offensively. He was under sixteen points a night on twenty six percent from deep. Jalen Williams has to pull his weight offensively as well. In the Mavericks series, he was seventeen a night on forty two percent from the field.

think they're gonna run away with the one seed. I think there's I think that I mean, to get to the actual origin of the question, I am changing my top tier of contenders, and I usually don't do this sort of thing in less than ten games. But there's obviously a lot that goes into it. These are two very complex basketball teams, and the teams that I'm dropping Denver and New York, I do think will play better in the long run. New York is a new team,

They're figuring some stuff out. Denver just literally everyone's either banged up or not playing well, like other than Jokic, So that just that will just make a team look lesser than they are. So like, I do think those teams will play better in the long run. But to me, Boston and Denver are very Excuse me, Boston and Oklahoma City are very clearly on a separate tier from the rest.

two years ago. Or it's like we don't shoot any threason, we don't necessarily have a good defensive anchor at center, but we're gonna win the title, which was like super rare, right, Like there's the game is always.

flying up and down the court. So your ability to have speed on the floor, to cover ground in transition, to cover ground in rotation, to pressure the ball and contain the ball, flatten out drives to win long rebound contests and fifty to fifty balls. That sort of thing to me as rising to the surface as one of

the most important traits of a basketball team. And in addition to all of the things that Boston does extremely well, and in addition to all the things that Oklahoma City does ext extremely well, they're both just fast as shit, and they're both deep with players that can cover ground in transition, in rotation, that can get into the ball with pressure and make teams uncomfortable and fight them off of spots. And like, when I look down the rest of the league, I think there are teams that can

match that speed. Golden State is a team we're going to talk about that I think can match that speed on the perimeter. But those two teams are the only two teams that have that kind of all encompassing trait that I think is so important while having the amount of firepower necessary to win for playoff rounds. Now, neither team is off to a perfect start. Boston's defense and even their transition defense hasn't been great to start the year,

although they've been playing in a lot of blowouts. Oklahoma City, you know, Shaye and Jaylen Williams are really working hard to increase their pull up three point shot volume and they're experimenting with some stuff. I love the breakdown you gave on chet. I agree, he's been one of the twenty best players I've watched to start the season. Again, we'll see it's a small sample size. He's got to maintain it. But he's just he's just hooping.

the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now very different in the sense that the Cavs were already considered like kind of a middle of the pack Eastern Conference playoff team that is overachieving to the top of the conference. Golden State, I think, was a team that most people around the league were pretty low on for good reason coming out of last year. They were They were well below five hundred against teams that were five hundred or

better last season. A couple of big pivotal must win games at the end of the year against media yocre teams, they lost both of them. Steph didn't look like a top ten player anymore. There was just there was some weird politics stuff going on, like it just looked like a team that maybe wasn't even worth investing it in terms of making a deal and just moving coming into the bench, getting Clay out of there, having everybody buy into Rolls.

Evan Mobley's leap. Carson just did a video yesterday on Evan Mobley, which you guys can find on the nerd Sash YouTube channel if you an interested, full breakdown on the development he's had this year. But he's already one of the best defenders on the planet. The Cavs are nine point four points per one hundre possessions better with Mobley. It's a difference between a defensive rating of one oh four point seven and one fourteen point one.

very much still a work in progress. You can see that game to game with Mobley, but he's getting and manufacturing high quality looks. It's such a high level he just makes it look easy. It's not really about him getting to the looks.

Mobley could tap into. Where you're looking at this guy potentially is maybe a you know, I think a twenty two or twenty three point per game score, and that's really deadly, But it's really about how he unlocks the rest of this team around him, because for the longest time, for years now, Carson and I have been talking about the dynamic and the fit with having two offensive oriented guards and Garland and Mitchell, and then two very limited

offensive players and Mobley and Allen. If Mobley can make this a legitimate leap, him and Allen can coexist and compliment one another, and they can have a great defense alongside them. Garland also has returned to forhim he was dealing with a broken jaw last year. He looks like he's come back in a big way. The last game against the Bucks thirty nine points, seven to three pointers. It's I underestimated them, guys, Like I think the Cavs

are my number two team out East. I thought the Knicks were clearly going to be the number two team, and it's close between them. I want to be clear about that, but I don't think the Knicks can do what the Cavs do defensively night tonight, and I like their depth more this year too.

has been an impressive stretch without Steph. But I feel like the more jumbo sized out teams in the West could just big body them in some playoff series, and that's why I'm hesitant to consider the Warriors a real contender.

and has been effective there. He's driving twice as much per game. So there's just a different level of comfort and confidence we're seeing from him as a ball handler, as a driver, as a creator in this offense that I was always optimistic he developed as a prospect. I love Devin Mobley as a prospect. He was my favorite guy, not just in that class but in the past handful of drafts. But he just hadn't developed at the rate that I was hoping. Offensively through three years and now

we're seeing it. And he's not an offensive star, but he's a really good offensive player. And the significance of that does go past the box score when you just have another legitimate threat on the floor when you are playing these two big looks, and now you have a guy who actually can beat you from the three point line.

they put together a legitimately good offense. I do not think that Evan Mobley single handedly solves that, but I do think that he helps a good bit. And I think when you pair that with the fact that they are now starting the best shooting wing that they've had, certainly the best combination of both shooting and defense in Dean Wade, that makes this offense better. The difference between him and and Isaac Okoro, who was twenty six percent from deep on low volume in the playoffs is big.

expect that to hold up. And in a contending context, that is still my concern is what is their real ceiling offensively? And also their wing play isn't great, right, shout out Dean Wade, shout out Max Struce. They have solid wings, but compared to some of the other teams who were looking at you know, they still aren't stacked at the position group. But they look way better than last year. And I think that they clearly have the defensive ceiling. I think that now they have a bigger

offensive punch to throw. I mean, their backward offensively is phenomenal, and we know what Donovan Mitchell can do in these playoff environments where he can play like a top fifteen sort of player, But now the burden isn't quite the same on him to have to put up twenty five shots a night because there is more skill around him offensively.

So Logan, you're talking about comparing them to the Knicks, I'm going to hold out before I make any declarations on that in terms of the postseason, but I think the Cavs are, like you're prototypical great regular season team with what they do defensively, and I do expect them to get that two seed. I just think fundamentally they're more talented than the Warriors. But I do love the

Warriors depth. I love their depth. It's ridiculous, right. I was at the first Pelicans game without Steph, and Lindy Waters just emerges in that game as like a legitimate NBA rotation player. They just have these dudes popping up out of nowhere. And Melton was a good at Kyle Anderson was a good ad. Buddy phenomenal ad. And that's the last aspect that I really like about this Warriors team is the three point shooting. I mean, they got a lot of dudes who can really shoot out there

with Buddy. With Lindy Waters playing more, Podds is going to shoot much better than he has early in the year. And I'm just a believer in pods and I'm with you, coming to going to the bench is a big deal. So I'm not underestimating the Warriors at this point. I underestimated them before the year. I thought they were a play in team. I think this team can win fifty

games right now. And the crazy stat last year was with Steph on the floor, they were still an eighty second percentile offense, and the skill around him is clearly better this year and Draymond is one of those great defensive anchors and the team is totally bought in on that end. The Warriors are really good, but I do still worry about some of the size stuff against big teams. I do still worry about the lack of a real second shot creator, even though I think Buddy is playing

out of his mind offensively right now. That's the thing that we've seen bite the Warriors a lot on the offensive end in recent years, and that does still concern me a little bit. And the shooting has been really good, but sometimes when you go with those Draymond TJD lineups, you just want a little more offensive skill on the floor.

through the context of beating those specific teams. Now that it gets complicated because you probably have to deal with different matchups on your way there, and neither Oklahoma City or Boston are particularly large on the front line in ways that could give Golden State issues or things along

those lines. Right, So, like it's complicated, But the reason why I would say that I trust Golden State a little bit more is I specifically am interested in the way that their defense can match up with both Oklahoma City's offense and Boston's offense. Like, I'm super excited to watch tonight's game between Golden State and Boston. For the record,

I think Boston will win. I think steps coming back from an injury, I don't think that he I think he's still even on a little bit of a minute's restriction.

different ways that they can initiate offense. And so like I do worry about Garland guarding in space, I do worry about teams picking on you know, if they think, oh, yeah, Dean Waite really solid defender, but you know, maybe we can get dribble penetration on him if we go this way. Or that way. Donovan Mitchell is a guy too that

like competes. He's physical, can apply a little bit of ball pressure, but historically not necessarily the best defensive player in the world when things are flying around, even though I think he had a really good defensive season last year.

The point being there, there's just more entry points for Boston to get Cleveland into rotation, and then it becomes a simple question of like, do I think that Cleveland could ever hope to keep up with Boston offensively and the answers no. And when it comes to Golden State, like I just envisioned them as a team against both Oklahoma City and Boston as team, as a team that can play at at least four good defensive players at

all times. Steph Curry is you know, he has been attacked a lot over the course of his career, and it's become something that teams do a ton. I'd like last summer, I went back and watched the Lakers series. They were going at Steph literally every single time down

the floor. It's a big part of how teams look to attack the Golden State Warriors, But at the same time they can anchor him with four really good defensive players that are switchable, that can cover a ton of ground, that sort of thing, and so I look at them as a team that I think just matches up better

defensively with those two teams. Now to be clear, in order for Golden State to make any sort of real noise, I think one Steph has to return to at least close to what he was when he was in his prime, which he has not shown since the middle of last season. And then two, I think that they do need to hit on a consolidation trade, something that shrinks their rotation from having thirteen playable guys to maybe ten or eleven, but you have an upgrade at backup center, or you

have a foward that can really score the ball. And by the way, this is the year for that. Between Brandon Ingram being a guy that could be available, between Jeremy Grant being a guy that could be available, between Zach Lavine being a guy that could be available, like, there are just a lot of guys that could be available this year at the three to four spot as someone who's like reliably capable of scoring twenty plus points

a game efficiently. And so I think, like on a real basic level, I just don't think Cleveland is capable of beating Boston, Like I think there's like almost no pathway to victory there, whereas with Golden State, I can kind of see like switching, containing, forcing turnovers, stagnating them. Oh, they hit on a couple of deals too, so they've got a little bit more firepower. And Steph Curry just kind of, you know, mentally dominates the series the way

that he did in twenty twenty two. But again, to be clear, I would not pick either of those teams against Boston or Oklahoma City. I think they're on a separate tier. But if I had to pick between the two of them, I think Golden State kind of has a unique build that could challenge those two teams. Moving on to our biggest disappointment. So the two biggest disappointments to start the NBA season have been the Bucks and

the Nuggets. The Nuggets are four and three, but they've lost to every good team they've played, and they barely scraped together three wins against two against Toronto and one against Brooklyn, so they've looked really bad to.

spot up shooting there. You have Damon Jannis and you get Chris Middleton on the floor, super skilled offensive group. I'm not sure they can be a top twenty defense, though, and that is bad and you have zero hope of contending.

And I thought we might see some slight improvement on that end. And then I was optimistic about a bit of a Dame bounce back. And I think that we're seeing a bit of a Dame bounce back. That just doesn't matter. You can have this overwhelming duo if you are this bad in this unserious on the defensive end, and this poorly coached, by the way, I'm not worried about the offense, but there are still these stretches just in terms of the offensive direction where they feel aimless

and they feel a bit disjointed. I'm just out on Milwaukee. I thought that they would be a little bit better than last year. They were still my fourth team in the East. But now you hold them up against a Cleveland, I take Cleveland, you hold them up against maybe a healthy Orlando. Like I don't want to undersell that things will get better. Of course, they are missing one of their best players, and they do have Damon Giannis, but this is a permanent, major problem that they have that

I don't think is getting better. On the flip side with Denver, yes, there are some things that aren't going to get better, the biggest one being the bench unless they make a move, unless they're able to add a bench shooter. But clearly that unit has stro buggled mightily. The backup center situation is disastrous. There's a clear lack of shooting in the second unit. And Russ, who's now been starting the last couple games with Jamal Murray hurt.

But he was brutal early in the year, and he's had a couple nice games, but he's still shooting twenty nine percent on the year right and there's been some catastrophic decision making from him. I do think that he's going to play better, though, I think that he's a clear upgrade from Reggie Jackson last year, just with what he brings athletically, what he can do defensively, what he

can do pushing the tempo and transition and playmaking. The bench will remain bad, but as I have said countless times this year now, Denver's bench was bad last year. Denver's bench has been consistently bad in the Jokic era, with the exception of the title team right because they had Bruce Brown and Christian Brown was able to step a bit bit in that run. It still wasn't a very good bench though, like that's always been a struggle for them.

percent of them. Christian Brown shooting the ball efficiently this year, but he's attempting under three threes a night and just effectively for spacing. It's not the same impact. We know that he's getting more confident, but he is still more hesitant to take those shots. But I think Christian Brown is a dog. I mean, I think he's a really good basketball player. It's just that one aspect, the shooting

that is a question mark. But athletically defensively in transition, as a cutter, as a rebounder for his size, like, the dude just makes impact plays.

Olympics were horrible. I still think he's going to bounce back, and for the playoffs in the Olympics, I do think the calf injury was a significant factor there. I think we're going to get a better version of Jamal Murray as this year goes on. So it's like last game they have to play without Aaron Gordon, right he gets hurt just a few minutes into it. MPJ was really struggling early in the year. He's now playing a good bit better. But I believe in that starting five. I

love their offensive formula. I think that the Jamal Jokic two man game is still the best in basketball. I think Aaron Gordon is a phenomenal fitness offense in the dunker spot. MPJ is an elite spot up shooter. Christian Brown is good enough offensively to still make this an elite offense.

See has separated from Denver. Nobody else has, though, And I've seen a lot of ringing the alarm bells and panicking with Denver and saying this team is going to be scrapping to make it into the playoffs, which I understand because every game has been so ugly. But I think this team is going to look significantly better. I still think it's a great starting five. And look around, like, has Minnesota really impressed you? Has Dallas really impressed you?

to me was the Nets game. We talked about this a little bit on our show, Carson, But watching Cam Thomas and Dennis Schroeder just attack Jamal Murray and crunch time like That's my biggest area of concern with the Nuggets is just you can only put Christian Brown on one guy, and I really worry about them containing dribble penetration and just holding up defensively, but not to not.

Just twelve of them made the playoffs, five of them had a losing record, and none of those teams won more than forty seven games. So the Bucks are fighting and uphill battle against a.

games and you come up short. Carson, I can't remember how you phrased it, but I also wrote down this team is impressively unathletic, like it's kind of funny and Jason, you talked about earlier in the show, how the game is shifted to these speedy teams, these athletic teams that play fast, they play upbeat games that keep you in games. The Bucks almost feel like a dinosaur in that way. In four years, their style of playing basketball in the way he is almost gone extinct, Like they just can't

win like this. Brook Lopez is completely immobile. He's a shell of himself. You got AJ Green defending Darius Garland in crunch time. Ironically, AJ Green might be their best perimeter defender.

I understand that Chris Middleton is out right. I think that's what I guess bucks fan would push back with, Oh, well, Chris Middleton isn't out there. Chris Middleton can come back and help you win some games, but he doesn't fix all of the problems that are here in Milwaukee. Yeah, I'm out on Milwaukee. I've been on out on Milwaukee since they hired Doc Rivers. He's twenty and thirty as a head coach. Adrian Griffin was thirty and thirteen don't

get me wrong. Man, if Adrian Griffin was out here, I don't think that makes any bit of a difference. But they're poorly coached. This is a bad roster. And yeah, as you're talking about with the stylistical change in basketball now, Jason, this shift to a different methodology of winning games, I think the Bucks are extinct.

You could put together a low light reel that is over an hour long to this point of the season on like just comical defensive breakdowns from the Milwaukee Bucks, even including good players. I think Brook Lopez is having a bad defensive season. I think Giannis is having a bad defensive season. Delon Wright is a professional defender. The dude's got like a low light reel of him making

mistakes and losing guys off the dribble. Like there, Gary Trent Junior was legitimately a better even with his limitations and he's not a good perimeter defender, but he was better than Malik Beasley, and he hasn't been good to start this year, and so I think, like I think the coaching staff plays a significant role in it. I think for the purposes of the question, which team do I think is more likely to figure it out and

win multiple playoff series? I think I'd probably lean towards Milwaukee, just simply because the East is so bad and so like there's a better chance of them like catching a pretty flawed team in the first round and maybe beating them and then who knows what happens in round two, Whereas, like Denver, to me, right now, I think they could be in a tough spot in the standings because of the way the West works, with Aaron Gordon being out for a while now, with Jamal Murray being hurt, with

their issues on the bench, I think they're going to have a really hard time winning games over the next

month or so. And if they're if they go into they go into December, a few games below five hundred, it could be really really difficult for them to get out of that play in picture, and that's where it starts to look like, Okay, are they going to end up facing Oklahoma City or one of these higher powered Western Conference teams in the first round or that could be an issue, whereas like Milwaukee could end up catching somebody that's a little more beatable in the first round.

And so to be clear, I think Denver's a better basketball team than Milwaukee.

But like, I just think Denver's better. I think Yoki is better. I think that their starting lineup is better. I think they're more well coached. I would take Mike Malone over Doc Rivers any day of the week. So like, but just for the purposes of the question, I'm really worried that Denver is going to be on the road in the first round against a really good team and that they could be looking at a first round exit here.

But then again, you could also talk me into the Bucks missing the playoffs entirely with how ugly things are going.

If he pick three, big three, wide open, but big three, like high pressure. If he could do that, he'd be a hell of a role player. It's just unfortunately I don't think that he can with any sort of consistency. And it's tough because, like I feel like the Nuggets were starting to figure out some stuff with the bench stagger right, playing mpjmore with the second unit, and even playing Yolkic with like sort of a mixed group.

was on the floor. But the depth is not something you want to be tested like this in Denver.

Clippers are not an easy game. Like the Clippers. It's like they're gonna defend like crazy and James Harden's going to keep them close and who knows what will happen at the end, right Like they've been in They've been in almost every game this year, so like, yeah, it's it's it's just tricky. But again, like that for the purposes of the question, though, like the Eastern Conference just

has so many cupcake opponents. I wouldn't be surprised if if a Milwaukee gained some momentum and themselves selves in like a four or five six seed and finds themselves with an achievable first round matchup. All right, let's move on to our next question, and we'll start with you, Carson on this one. Are sitting with Logan on this one? Who is more likely to make a deep playoff run this year? The Dallas Mavericks or the Los Angeles Lakers.

running late into games. I can't remember which one it was the other day, but they dumped the ball to Lebron on the left wing in like a post up sort of situation, and Anthony Davis sets a pin down screen for Austin Reeves to run off of for an easy cut to the bucket and basket. And it's like, oh my gosh, who knew that using three players in a play could create a you know, could manufacture an easy look?

these two teams. The thing that puts the Mavericks over the top, to me is two things, and that's one. It's Luka Doncic. I mean, he's the best player on either of these two teams. I just trust him to go superhuman when his team needs him. The guy's just a gamer in the big moments. I trust him more than anybody on these two teams. Again, Okay, actually with Lebron, I don't know if I can still say. I know Lebron can crank it up when they needs to, but

lucas special. And then it is the introduction to Klay Thompson, like the fact that he brings this offense up another level than it even was last year. Right, LUKEA and Kyrie could go crazy and take turns passing the baton between one another in the playoffs last year. But Clay just gives them a more steadying presence, a guy that can knock down shots at a high level that is going to get force fed really easy looks, and he just knows how to move within the flow of the offense.

similarities in terms of the strengths. I just think I trust Dallas's defense and depth a bit more. I think both these teams have their issues at the point of attack. I think it is significantly worse with LA. I mean, Logan, you mentioned what you have with Reeves and Dilo right being your primary point of attack defenders, but Ruey is rough defensively, and the entire Lakers transition defense is just.

And so, although I do have some concerns about Dallas's point of attack defense, they do have an Aie Marshall who you can deploy for twenty five minutes to night, who's a really good all around role player and a really good perimeter defender. And they do have PJ and Gafford slash lively for forty eight minutes in the front court. So you do have to be a better defensive front court.

As much as I love Ad and Lebron will do his job as a low man in the playoffs, Like, I still think what you're getting from Dallas is definitely more consistent defensively. You have Maxi Kleebo, who you can put out there in your front court. Defensively, they just have more dudes there. And I have been underwhelmed with the Lakers bench. I looked at it on paper before

the year and I was okay with it. I love Dalton connect I thought that he was the most polished scorer in this draft, and I think you've immediately seen that value from him. But I was more optimistic about Max Christi in terms of what he could bring as a two way player. He's really struggled offensively. Gabe Vincent has really struggled offensively. I think he'll get better, Right, we know what he is. He's a solid bench point guard.

Jackson Hayes has actually probably a little better than I expected, but I just don't think that he's that good at the end of the day, So I've been underwhelmed with the bench.

were getting on the wings for Dallas last year. I don't think that they were your typical finals caliber team last year. So, like I do think it's important to put that in perspective, because if I think they're a little better than last year, that doesn't mean that I think that they're like emerging as a jugger not now. I just think they're really good, and I do prefer them to LA a bit.

of attack defender. He's a decent athlete, but he's not like a fly around crazy athlete like I think Josh Green was a better athlete than him. So like the like in PACER's game, perfect example, the Pacers just ran circles around him in that game in transition and in

the half court to get to whatever they want. I think you can talk yourself in a massive upside with both teams like that, Like Dallas just all you really have to do is follow the formula from last year, and you know, kind of talked about all of the offensive upside that comes from incorporating Klay Thompson. They have added some more five out concept this year, although they're

not using them as much as I'd like to. There's been a little bit of like they do this a lot when Luca's on the bench, where they'll basically start running that cross action where basically they'll have Lively catch at the top of the key and they'll have the two guards screen for each other and then cut off of it, and then they'll if they don't get anything out of it, they'll flow into dhos out of that, which is a five out concept that I've seen some

good stuff, but they just don't lean on it as much. They've kind of just fallen back into more or less what they've done last year, which is spamming high ball screen actions, whether it's stack or double drag or things along those lines. But like the main reason why I would lean Dallas over the Lakers is one I think

Luca's better than everybody on the Lakers. For the record, Anthony Davis has played better than Luca at this point, Anthony Davis has played better than everybody in the league to this point, really except for Jokic maybe, and like he's just he's hooping, but like already starting to show some signs of him getting banged up a little bit. And the thing with Ad is, like I still think kind of like what we saw in the Cavs game is things kind.

Kliba if they want to go smaller. If you call Kaliba your backup for PJ. Washington and Maxic Kleba, is a better four man rotation than like Ruy and Van Doo, for instance, if you're looking past the Stars, although obviously Lebron James is a factor there the Klay Thompson piece, Like, there's no doubt that he's not the athlete that Derek Jones was in his ability to cover ground and transition in rotation is not the same, but he's just so much better offensively that you could talk me into a

give and take there where it's more or less the same. So, like, do I think Dallas is as good as Maverick? Fans think that the MAVs are like a top tier contender? Do I agree with that? No, I'm with you, Carson. I think they were a team that broke through the conference last year, but I didn't view them as a team that was on the same tier as Boston. I picked Boston in that series, and I picked Boston to

blow them out, and they did. But that said, like when I look past the top tier and I look at the rest of the Western Conference, to me, there's

not a team like Denver's. Denver is a weird one, like we talked about earlier with their weird start, but going into the season, beneath Denver and Oklahoma City, to me, Dallas was clearly better than Phoenix, clearly better than the Lakers, clearly better than Minnesota, Clearly better than the teams that are in that kind of middle tier in the conference. I think it's it'll remain to be seen whether or not they kind of hit an even higher offensive ceiling

in the large sample. I'm hoping that in time they continue to explore some of the ball and player movement stuff that they did in the early part of the season. But I certainly think that they're more likely to make a deep playoff run than the Lakers. On the Lakers' front, this is all I'll say. Like, if you would have told me coming into the season, oh, they're four and three, with their tough schedule that they played to start, I

would have been thrilled. Would have been like, that's amazing. Obviously, it's manifested different than I would have expected. I would have expected them to drop one of those first three games, and I would have expected them to beat the Pistons, right, But like, they're four and three, they're sitting in a good spot. But I'm actually coming out of it lower

on them than I was to start the season. And the main reason why is just my overarching philosophy on the game that has shifted a little bit in the early part of the season. In terms of my prioritization of perimeter speed and the fact that I just think the Lakers are really slow. They desperately needed Max Christy to pop. He's been bad. He's just he does not understand and accept who he is as a basketball player.

What he is is a basketball player, is a guy who should take catch and shoot threes in maybe one dribble decisions, meaning whether it's a slash to the bucket or a quick driving kick, but he thinks he should run action. He put it to the ball in the floor multiple times and over penetrates and tries to dunk on everybody. And he just, for lack of a better term,

he's an incredibly immature offensive basketball player. And so I don't think, like I'm not a big Cam Reddish fan, but with how bad Max has looked, I almost think you have to play Cam over him. They needed Vando to get healthy. I'm higher on Vanda offensively than you are, Carson, just because the last time we saw him with the Lakers, they weren't running this offense. They were sticking him in the corner. That's obviously going to be a very poor

way to use him. But if they use him as a screener and as a roller and as a cutter like they did before he got hurt last year. I actually think he's less of a negative on the offensive end of the floor and he brings the desperately needed perimeter athleticism that they need. But he's been hurt and he's not been able to stay on the floor for

any extended stretch for a very long time. So, like, as I look at the Lakers roster and it's like, Okay, Gabe is somewhat fast, but he's really small, and the dude literally cannot put the ball in the basket. It's the craziest thing, Like he just cannot score. Then Max, who is an incredibly immature offensive player, and vanderhu can't stay healthy. Those are your fast guys. That's the speed on this roster. So like that, that's where I really start to get concerned about them in the big picture.

The one thing with the Lakers is they have multiple expiring deals. Delo's deal is expiring now, the Jalen hood Chafino deal is expiring, so they have an opportunity to potentially make a deal, and they can. They have draft compensation that they can use, but they need to like absolutely nail whatever deadline deals that they make, and there's a lot of talk about them looking for a backup center.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have an upgrade of Jackson Hayes, but he's so far down on their list of problems right now with their issues on the perimeter. I also think that they'll play better at this last thing I'll say. I also think they'll play like. The Lakers are four and three against a really tough schedule to start, and a lot of their guys aren't playing well. Austin's been really good in some games, but he's been

really bad in some games. I thought it's I thought the Pistons game was the worst defensive game of his career. Ruyat Tamura has been really good some games, really bad some games. Lebron James for the most part, has been down to start the year. Nobody on the bench is playing well except for maybe Dalton, and even then it's I think it's been some mixed results. So like, they have a lot of guys not really playing well right now. So like, I do think that the Lakers will get better.

I think that they're going to be a good regular season team, Like I think that I think through fifteen games they'll be ten and five, maybe even maybe even eleven and four. We'll see. Like I think they're going to be fine. It's just in terms of their big picture goals and what they.

four percent of their baskets were assisted. This year they're up to fifth. Sixty nine percent of their baskets have been assisted to start this year, a lot more driving kick, their three point volume is way up. They're contending better physically. Last year they were twentieth in defensive rebounding this year their sixth. Cleaning the glass has a stat they used to track transition defense called points added per one hundred possessions.

Is basically a combination of frequency and efficiency with transition. Last year they were eighteenth. This year their fifth, So they're contending better in the physical parts of the game. Big part of that is Ryan Dunn. Have you guys seen We'll start with you, Carson, have you seen anything with the Phoenix Suns that leads you to believe they're a different team that will be more successful this year than they were last year.

to this season for the Suns. This is what I said in the preseason. They have to play him and he has to be good, and he has to hold up an offensive level close to what we saw in preseason. I guess maybe I shouldn't even say that, because he was shooting like over forty percent from deep on crazy volume.

But he has to play at a level that solidifies that he has taken an offensive leap from the player we saw at Virginia, who was the worst offensive player drafted in the first round, probably right, and a complete non shooter who had no touch even from the free throw line.

hold his own in those matchups. He's also the best shot blocking wing in this class, and he's just exactly what Phoenix needs.

really bad season versus Minnesota. But he's shooting the ball really well and he's defending well right now.

I think that they have some redundancies and some very obvious limitations there, but it's not like they're strictly playing They're starting five twenty five minutes a night, right this is in Denver, so they're getting some better role player contributions. Their offense I think is pretty similar to last year. I do think it's slightly better, right. I do think there's a bit of a stabilizing element with Tias Jones. You mentioned the assist percentage. I do think the ball

movement has been a bit better. I like the three point volume going up. I do still think they have some of the same limitations. They are still dead last in the league in restricted area makes and compared to the great offenses, they just don't have that sort of overwhelming advantage creator.

offense like that, and I expect them to be. It's just really hard to be a great offense like that. And hopefully they keep the three point volume up, because that was another component of this last year is they weren't getting shots at the rim, and they weren't getting a high percentage of shots from beyond the arc, and then you're just living in the mid range and that's just a numbers problem. That's a math problem for you, no matter how good your shot making from Katie and

Book is. But what's been encouraging is how great they've been in the clutch compared to just the complete disaster they were last year, right turnover machine. In clutch situations, they've been awesome. That's where they've been winning all their games. They're five and in clutch games this year, and that's against a lot.

got bullied by Minnesota. The offense struggled and we saw again the lack of rim pressure right, the lack of high end athleticism advantage creation against a super athletic defense. It was bringing a ton of pressure and they were able to kind of suffocate even these really skilled ball handlers. But the defense is where I really hope to see improvement from Phoenix, and I think that.

They've improved, but it is tough when you have that sort of limitations at the most important defensive position, and alongside O'Neill or Dunn or whoever you're playing big minutes or starting like, you are still going to have a small guard in Tyas Jones or Bradley Beal booking Katie are solid defensively, but we don't consistently see them buy all the way in on that end. Like, I think they have the potentially be a good offense. I think they have the potential to be an above average defense.

And I also think that this West is a bit more vulnerable. Like the depth is crazy, but Minnesota's not as good as last year, Denver's not as good as last year. Dallas, to me, is clearly beatable. Like I think that this Phoenix team can win a series in this West, they might be able to go further than that.

They might be able to win two series. I'm not really seeing a gap between some of the teams and them where I did expect to see a gap, and early in the year, when a lot of teams out West have just underwhelmed, Phoenix has been the one team that's soaring. I mean, I think there's obviously a massive gap between Oka seeing them, but I do think they're better. I was low on how much they could really improve this offseason, just with some of their fundamental core limitations

and lack of roster flexibility. And I don't think that They've moved mountains in terms of how I viewed them, But it's definitely been encouraging and I am higher on them now than I was preseason.

high volume of threes. This team was twenty fifth and three pointers attempted last year.

on the floor at all. So they've got star power, they've got improved three point shooting and depth. They've got improved defense with better coaching. Yeah, I think this team can win a playoff series. I don't know if i'd take them to the Western Conference finals. That's a little much, but I do think this team can win a playoff series. I've been really impressed by the Suns. I was really low on them, like you coming into the year, But I do feel a little differently about them now.

been way better when he's been off the floor. Coming out of that series with Minnesota, the obsession with the idea of like them needing a point guard, to me was silly because it's like, Okay, you're losing because you're getting manhandled, not because you're uh because you don't have a point guard, And like, yeah, do Beal and Booker and kd need to handle ball pressure better and get

the ball at the floor and get into their stuff. Yeah, absolutely, no doubt, like that's on them, But like being like looking at that situation and being like, Okay, option one, we just do a better job not pissing down our leg when someone picks us up full court, and we devote our resources towards bigger athletes that help us win

these really physical games. Or option two, let's have tie us do it, you know, like it's it's it's confusing to me because, like you know, just look at their data, Like, the guys that have been leading to their the most success on the floor have been Royce O'Neill, Ryan Dunn, the guys that are big, physical defenders that can knock down a wide open catch and shoot three. And like, look,

do I love this team build? No, because, like I think it's really hard to win without a center in the NBA, just because like size and physicality and the ability to defensive rebound is important. And the Sons have been negative in their centerless groups so far this season. But like right now, if I was like picking a lineup to go down with, if I was the Suns, It'd be Bo Booker KD. And it'd be Ryan Dunn, and it'd be Royce O'Neil. Those are the guys that

I would want to go down with. Those are the guys that give them the best chance to compete physically. I think that's the encouraging part. Getting a full season of Royce O'Neill adding Ryan Dune to this group, I think that's what causes them to have a better defensive rebounding track record than they do this year, to have a better transition defense than they did last year, to be a better defense overall than they were last year.

And like Ryan Dunn is like not just a good defensive player, Like he's one of those guys where like I get nervous when people run action on his side of the floor that he's just going to blow it up. Like the dude is an absolute monster. I loved the quote from KD about there was a quote from KD that, like one of the things he loves about Ryan Dunn is.

I think when push comes to shove on the offensive end of the floor, it's on KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal to navigate ball pressure, to get the defense into rotation, to make the right reads, to trust each other to drive. And I think I think that that is if we're looking for something that coach Budenholzer has really affected. You know, Frank Vogel is as good of a defensive coach as he is, and I think he's

an underrated defensive coach. Frank Vogel has always had been way behind the times on the offensive end of the floor, and I think that that structure and that prioritization of those driving kick possessions has been really good for them. I'm with you, Carson and your outlook on the league. Like, to me, Oklahoma City is on a clear tier above the rest. But you could talk me into any of

those other teams winning multiple playoffs series. So that could be Oklahoma City versus Phoenix, That could be Oklahoma City versus Dallas. It could be Oklahoma City versus Minnesota, Oklahoma City versus Denver, Oklahoma City versus the Lakers, Oklahoma City versus Golden State, any of those teams. To me, I could see meeting in the conference finals, just because there's.

in my opinion. And so to me, it's like what it comes down to is who can among that group, who can from day one start a training camp address the things they need to address and build those habits and all of that attention to details so that they can be a sharper team when they get to the end of the line. And to me, Phoenix is one of those teams that's taking the right approach here in the early part of the season. All right, guys, it's

all we have for today. Carson, why don't you tell us about what you guys are working on over at NERD sesh.

All that good stuff is there, and that's basically it. Thank you Jason for.

Celtics Warriors game tonight should be super interesting. There's like a half dozen really good games. We're probably gonna do something similar to what we did Tuesday, like bouncing around the whole league and doing a bunch of films, So be ready for that tomorrow, and then we'll have that mailbag on Friday, and then we'll be out of here for the week. All right, guys, that's all we have. We will see you tomorrow.