Hoops Tonight - NBA Preseason: Warriors & Celtics HOT START, Lakers key issue, Nuggets struggling

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so far. Got a jampackshow for you today. I wanted to bounce around to a bunch of different teams that we haven't hit so far in the preseason, and so a format that I came up with for us to do that We're gonna do who's hot and who's not today. We've got eight different segments that I'm going to go through. I think we're hitting nine different teams, so we're going to be bouncing all over the place. It's going to be a lot of fun. You guys, owe the drill

before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JCNLTS. You guys, don't miss you announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed. Where have you get your podcast or Hoops Tonight? Don't forget. It's also helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. And then, last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them

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in Sam Vasini. We're going to bounce around the top end of the league. On Friday, I'm going to do my final season preview of the year on the Boston Celtics. Probably hit maybe one or two more preseason games, and then we're right into it guys next week. On Tuesday, we will be live on YouTube after the final buzzer of the first regular season game. We'll probably find something to do on Monday. I'm not sure what we'll do yet, but we'll get to something, maybe some predictions and stuff

like that. Very very excited. I was actually venting to Paul. Paul's our lead producer, and I was venting to him yesterday, like, I'm ready for some real basketball. As much as I enjoyed the preseason, as much as I enjoy any basketball, I'm ready to see these teams actually going out there and trying to win the games. And we are very very close. We are less than week away. I cannot wait. So our first, I'm gonna go back and forth, who's hot, who's not our first?

up jump shots. That got me really excited about what that's going to look like with Joe el Embiid, specifically because Joe embiads a very big body that is difficult to get around, and also because the role man is going to be so keyed in on Joel Embiid and what he's doing, especially as we know so many of em beads ISOs and face up opportunities kind of start out of ball screens and feeds in the short role.

I'm just really really excited about the openings that Paul George is going to be able to take advantage of in those situations. They also ran a little bit of

two man game. There was a play at the end of the first half against Minnesota where Paul George ended up with Mike Conley on him, and it was, you know, pretty typical in that sort of situation where you expect Mi Conley to hedge on a screen, and so Paul George was kind of ran up like he was going to screen for Tyrese Maxey and then slipped out of it to the left wing and Conley lingered for just a second, and that gave Paul George just enough of an advantage to hit a dribble combination and get a

good look from three. And honestly, I didn't even think it was executed as good as it could have been. Because he didn't actually really commit to the screen enough to really get Conley to hedge. And so then I started to get excited about some one three to two man game with Maxie and Paul George where the two of them can kind of play off of each other. Liked what I saw from them in preseason. And then Tyrese Maxey one point four to seven points per pull

up jump shot ten for nineteen overall. Remember last year the kind of rub on Tyreese was he was shooting incredibly well off the catch, incredibly well off the move, but was struggling off the dribble. Now, then he did have a very good off the dribble shooting series against the Knicks in the first round. But movement shooting is specifically like the pull up shooting piece, excuse me, is

specifically valuable because it's the ultimate coverage beater. Most coverages are designed to give up lightly contested pull up jump shots, right like you don't want to give up open catch and shoot threes. You don't want to give up lob dunks. You don't want to give up easy opportunities around the basket.

You want to try to force the guy to make the toughest possible shot, and right now in basketball, the toughest shot that people are taking or contested pull up jump shots, and it's just like an important coverage beater. It's a playoff shot, it's a ceiling razor. There's a lot that Tyree's can do outside of that, right Like, we know he can speed his way downhill and get into the rim. He's gotten better as a playmaker over the last few years. The movement shooting piece is really cool.

This is something that is a great counter for ball pressure, Like just have him start in the corner and just sprint like crazy, easy to come off of a dribble handoff and look to shoot the ball, or just come off of a couple of screens and look to shoot

the ball. But one of the things with those movement shooting situations is there are some better counters for the defense in terms of like top locking and just denying the ball altogether forcing him to cut through to the opposite side, and so like having the ability to consistently knock down jump shots off the dribble with the ball

in your hands is the ultimate coverage beater. And that was the one thing for Tyrese that was kind of missing in his development, and it seems just barely a small sample coming off the postseason and then into this preseason. But given his shooting touch, it was only a matter of time before he figured this piece out. And if he figures it out this season, it's going to dramatically

raise his individual ceiling. The two of those guys, Paul George and Tyres Masey going to do a great job of anchoring that offense when Joelle Embiid is out of the lineup.

Derek Lively's at the second screen. Remember, double drag is just simply a double ball screen where the screeners are staggered by a certain amount and the more athletic player is going to roll hard to the rim and the better shooter is going to pop out to the three point line. It usually forces a guard guard screen or a guard wing screen, which can lead to more potential

for mistakes. Right, It's like if you run a regular ballscreen, less opportunity for mistakes, double drag, more opportunity for mistakes. In this case, at the beginning of the possession, darre Jones Junior was guarding Clay and Terrence Man was guarding

the ball handler. But as Clay set the first screen, Terrence Man switches on to Clay, and as soon as the screen happens, as Lively sets the second screen and starts to roll, Terrence Man actually sinks down into kind of the foul line elbow area to tag on the roller. It's a mistake in this case because he is overplaying a role off of Clay Thompson, who's one of the greatest shooters of all time, like probably the second best shooter of all time.

Clay's makes so far in preseason were unguarded. He's three for five or sixty percent on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots in preseason. He's zero for ten on guarded jump shots and pull up jump shots so far in preseason. Now, do I expect Clay to be just left wide open all the time? Of course, not against especially against the elite defenses in the NBA. I think they're going to

be more geared towards helping off of PJ. Washington when they can, But defenses will make mistakes and Clay will get open and Luca will make them pay for that. In years past, that player was typically a player that might make them pay, but it was either streaky or just an inadequate shooter in general. Right, So it's an absolute upgrade in that specific regard. They did run quite a bit of action for Clay. I thought that was fascinating.

Lots of double wide pin downs, lots of dribble, handoff stuff, but that was obviously with very little Kyrie and Luca. I think between those two guys, Kyrie's played twelve ish minutes and Luca's played zero. So just not a lot of those guys on the floor. So, like the question is, will they keep Clay on the move when everyone is healthy, because I think that's an important part of their resilience

on offense against the best defenses in the league. So no, I don't care that Clay is missing in preseason because it's not relevant to what he'll be doing in the regular season or why they signed him to begin with. But he is cold to start the year. Who is hot The Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. Every offense in the league is struggling to start the preseason, which is to be expected. Guys are getting back in shape, they're learning new sets, they're learning how to play with

new players. There's a lot of like end of the bench guys playing. But there are two teams that have picked up right where they left off offensively, the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. Boston is the best net rating in the league so far in preseason. They're outscoring teams by sixteen point three points per one hundred possessions. They have the best offense in the league, a one twenty one offensive rating. Jason Tatum, it looks like he

is returning to form. Jump shot looks great. He's getting one point two points per catch and shoot jump shot so far in preseason one point zero eight points per

pull up jump shot. You know, after the postseason run where he didn't shoot well, it was a pretty quick turnaround to the Olympics, and anytime that he had in that stretch, he needed to focus on giving his body a rest after a crazy nine month basketball campaign, right, So like he had to go straight into the Olympics without much of an opportunity to really work on his

jump shot. Not to mention that was kind of an awkward situation for him in terms of a shift in role, bunch of different players already in a slump and now he's looking from the outside in in terms of the rotation. Right, So, like he didn't really have much of a chance after the Olympics. Sometimes you just need to get out of playing five on five and just get into a gym and work on your game. Sometimes you need to disconnect

from the results. So who cares if you miss? Who cares if you go into the gym and miss twenty five shots in a row. You're working on your shot, whereas if you're just playing basketball and you're missing shots, it can cause you to continue to spiral in terms of your confidence.

for him. Again, I was very aware of the fact that Tatum was in an extended shooting slump that was stemming from the postseason into the Olympics, but I always felt like it was a temporary thing. There was never a moment where I thought Tatum had forgotten how to shoot, or like, oh now he's just too buff and he's never going to be able to shoot again. No, that was silly, like he's too talented of a player who

works too damn hard. There was always a ver There was always going to be this outcome, which is Tatum the career great shooter was going or at least career good shooter was going to become a good shooter again and again the pull up jump shot, in particular, picking up where he left off in like that January stretch last year when he was shooting the seams off the basketball. Would be curious to see how that goes over the course of the season. Lots of bench guys for Boston

look good to start the season. Pritchard is locked in. He's shooting forty nine percent from three on nine attempts per games. Xavier Tillman shooting super well, providing some quality center minutes. Again, those are going to be so important to start the year two as they keep Al Horford's minutes down and as Porzingis is recovering from his injury. Jordan Walsh looks like he can crack the rotation, just

good size on the wing. He's been rebounding super well with those bench scripts, which again is going to be important, especially as you're playing lower quality centers a lot in the early part of the season. Lonnie Walker has had some really nice driving kick possessions, but we all knew that was going to be the case with his athleticism in that spacing. Boston just hasn't missed a beat. They look super sharp to start the year. Indiana shooting the

three ball really well. They have the fourth highest three point percentage of all teams so far in preseason. Ben Matherin's shooting really well. Pascal Siakam's over fifty percent from three, aaron Nei Smith's over fifty percent from three. Tyris Halliburton is shooting the ball really well. Nem Har's doing pretty well as well. Jaris Walker, the draft pick from last year. He's shooting it really well. He's over fifty percent from

three in preseason. Over two thirds of their baskets are assisted, and their top ten in transition offense again, so basically just picking up right where they left off on offense. Now, They're defense looks atrocious. They are the worst defense in the NBA so far in preseason by defensive rating, But at least their offense is picking up right where it left off. Who is not Karl Anthony Towns's jump shot.

He's just five for twenty one so far in preseason, just one for eight when he's unguarded, which is interesting, just kind of just noise in a small sample size. I don't think of it. I think much of it at all. Am I worried about it? No, he's getting great looks. Those eight unguarded looks, every single one of them has come either out of a pick and pop or a transition trailer situation. Those are situations that are

going to be there throughout the season. I've broken down the pick and pop on many different occasions, whether it's a ball screen, a dribble handoff, or an off ball screen. Anytime Cat screens for somebody who tries to turn the corner and go downhill, Kat's defender, who is almost always going to be a center, is programmed mentally to naturally sink back to help contain guy coming downhill, even if

it's not part of the game plan. Guys will make mistakes by doing that sort of thing just simply because they're big guys. That's what they've done their entire career. And there's a guy curling over his screen heading downhill into the lane, and you got to do something about it. In those situations, cat sets the screen and instead of rolling, he just flows back to that above the brake line and just waits for the ball to come back to him. He's gonna get tons of good looks like that all year.

Transition trailer situations are another situation where Kat's getting a ton of good looks in preseason. Another very basic concept. Bigs are trained on transition defense all the time, right, especially because they are typically slower footed than the wings and guards at every level of basketball, and so their coaches are just non stop talking to them. I need you to run, I need you to run, I need you to sprint, I need you to get up and

down the floor. Got to stay in this foot race, right. Well, for the most part, they're running to the rim. They run to the rim on both ends of the floor, especially at the lower levels of basketball. It's run the rim just straight from like just on both ends of

the floor. Like even on offense, it's like you're just running to the rim, right, it's all rim running, right, and so on defense, a lot of these big guys, when they're guarding Karl Anthony Towns and there's a transition wave come in, those guys sink into the lane just naturally. How many bigs are thinking in transition, like I need to sprint back and then locate Cat at the three point line. Even if that's the game plan, it fights

against their natural instincts. And there were a lot of plays so far in preseason where just everyone's going down the floor, here comes Kat rumbling down behind everybody and just stopping right there at the top of the key and getting a wide open look. Again, he hasn't been making them yet, but he's too good of a shooter not to make them just small sample sized noise. I expect him to feast on those types of looks throughout

this season. I expect them to go in, and I expect them to help the Knicks offense in a big way.

he's thinking in our recording here later this afternoon. But I can't help but wonder if this story ends with Dante as the starting too, and with Mike Conley coming off the bench. I just think Dante is a better player at this phase in his career. I think he is like a force multiplier for the athleticism in defense that that starting unit brings. I think at this phase of his career, because of his ability to get moving and to quickly elevate off the catch and shoot, he's

actually a be spacer than Mike Conley. He's not the connector that Mike Conley is, But at the same time, Dante is a quality connector. I just think he's a better player, and I think in the long run, you could make a case that he's going to end up starting next to Ant just beautiful fits. So far in preseason, Anthony Edwards is still shooting the seams off the basketball. He's twelve for twenty three on jump shots, one point

four to eight points per attempt. Now, this is where we got to start looking at a pretty substantial sample size here, going back to last year. In the postseason, ant is getting one point one zero points per jump shot in the playoffs on one hundred and eighty four attempts, one point one four points per jump shot. In all of the Team USA games, that's sixty nine attempts one point two eight points per shot. In the real Olympic games, that's forty seven percent field goals on thirty six attempts.

So in high leverage Olympic games, hit damn near half of his jump shots. And now he's at one point four to eight points per attempt on twenty three attempts. So we're literally at all almost four hundred attempts excuse me, almost three hundred attempts of just Aunt being an elite shooter, spanning seven months, several different basketball situations, super high leverage.

This is something we talked about in our season preview because of the loss of Kyle Anderson. They needed someone to pop, right They josh Myno. Six 's eight, little thin, not quite as big as Kyle Anderson was, right, but very very vertically athletic, shooting the ball super well. He's five for ten on three so far preseason. He's run seven self creation possessions so ISO's pick and rolls, post ups.

He's converted them into nine points. Showed a little bit of off the dribble pop, bringing functional size and athleticism. He's rebounding at a rate of nine point five rebounds per thirty six minutes so far in preseason. So like josh Minot ends up just slotting into that Kyle Anderson spot as like a bench forward that could be a huge depth piece for the Minnesota Timberwolves this year. Who

is not the Denver Nuggets. They got smashed by the Thunder last night, albeit without Nicole Yokich or Jamal Murray, but they've dropped to zero to four in preseason they have a minus fourteen point seven net rating so far in preseason. That's the worst in the Western Conference by a mile. Only the Washington Wizards have been worse among NBA teams. Mike Malone last night was asked whether or not he was sensing an air of revenge from the

Nuggets in preseason. He just flatly said, no, Jamal Murray hasn't looked good. They've looked a little apathetic. If you're looking for like a revenge campaign with a bunch of verve and intensity, it just hasn't been there now. Mike Malone also said he's still confident that when they're healthy, they can accomplish what they want to accomplish.

your stars. However, it's hard to not be at least a little bit annoyed at the general lack of urgency to start the season in Denver. Who is hot the Warriors movement shooters. I was watching Warriors Pistons yesterday and I was amazed that there are ability to run quality offense without Steph Curry on the floor. But it's built off of a very simple concept. They have a bunch of guys who are willing and able to take jump shots on the move. This is important because it forces

whoever's defending them to chase over the top. If they're just looking to drive on curls, or if they're not competent or comfortable shooting running off of off ball action or off of dribble handoffs, their defender in all likelihood is going to go underneath those screens and contain the basketball and dare you to shoot. You have to have a general willingness and ability to hit movement jump shots in order in the Warrior system in order for guys

to chase over the top, and they do. Buddy Heal locked in to start the season looks like a shoe Infit he's getting one point four to six points per jump shot on thirty five attempts so far. The Anthony Melton willing and able to take movement jump shots, Moses Moody willing and able to take movement jump shots, Brandon Pajemski able to make movement jump shots. Lindy Waters looks like a guy who, like legitimately could be in this rotation. Now again, that's the issue. Too many guys that look

like rotation players. For the Warrior, Steph was talking about it and how some guys are gonna get their feelings hurt and we'll see what happens. But in order to be able to put together a functional offense without a superstar, you have to be able to run action and have

guys be threats within that action. So if you're running action and you've got five guys that are not named Steph Curry that are willing and able to come off of an off ball screen and knock down a jump shot that forces guys to chase as soon as it forces guys to chase, and the big guys to show, meaning the guys who are defending the screeners to show on the other side of the screens. That's when you start to get opportunities for guys slipping or rolling to

the basket. In those situations, you need guys who screen well and can playmake well on the role. Tray Jackson, Davis, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton, the second Kyle Anderson who was awesome against Lakers again last night. Like, having guys that are willing and able to do that is the other side of that offensive kind of bracket in terms of

how you make those actions function. That is that simple action just having guys who are willing to come off of screens shooting and guys who set good screens and can playmake on the role. That simple combination gives you

a pretty high floor offensively. Now, we all know if you run into a super elite defense that's super locked in, there are limitations on the talent level with this Warriors roster, right, we all know that that Steph is basically the only guy on the entire roster that you can trust to consistently generate quality shots against the best defenses in the league. But the floor is super high because of this foundation.

And this is a testament to how good of a coach Steve Kerr is and how good leaders Steph and Draymond. Are you just know they're going to maximize the talent on this roster by virtue of having functional talent that fits a system and then insistent commitment to the details on a night in a night out basis. The bench groups, in particular for the Warriors last night, kicked the shit out of the Lakers. That to me is a sign

of organizational competence and intensity. Nice start for the Golden State Warriors in preseason this year.

classified as guarded by Synergy. Remember, last year, more than half of the Lakers shots were considered unguarded in catch and shoot situations in the regular season, so they were going at forty nine percent guarded catch and shoot jump shots last year in the regular season. To sixty four percent guarded catch and shoot jump shots in preseason so far, they are simply just forcing a lot of bad shots.

It's crazy watching them too, because I mean, even last night against the Lakers, it's like, how many of these attempts are just they dribble the ball off the floor and they throw a pass to somebody on the wing, and that dude on the wing has just a tiny bit of separation and he just lets it fly from three. Those aren't good shots. Those are shots you can get

later in the clock. Remember, the specific reason why the Laker offense was awesome last year was they dominated the paint and they were deadly on wide open threes that they generated off of those paint touches. That's why they were such a high three point percentage team and an offensive rating. Remember, they were the third best offense in the league over the final forty six games of the season, that is more than half the season. This was not

an offense that needed a dramatic shift in approach. This was an offense that needed minor tweaking. Okay, now again, I'm not going to be overly critical of JJ Reddick in this regard, because anytime that you come in and try to implement new things. There's always sloppiness, and it is way too soon after a handful of preseason games to act as though we have enough of a sample size to just commit ourselves to this idea that JJ's

screwing things up. That's not what's happening here. I'm just saying, on a small sample size, I think the Lakers are taking too many bad shots. They're only getting zero point eight to two points per attempt in those contested catch and shoot jump shots that they're taking, so they're not actually helping the offense. And again, there's a ton of other positivity. He's added a lot of structure. They're running more organized offense on a higher percentage of their possessions.

They are talking about and emphasizing the right things. I am overall positive on the jj FIH with the Lakers, but this specific approach to increasing three point volume is something that I disagree with. Again, the three point volume is not the way that you increase offenses of offensive efficiency. As I mentioned last year or last time we talked about this, eight of the top twelve three point volume

teams last year missed the playoffs. Like the actual way you increase your offensive efficiency is by hunting the highest quality shot on that individual possession. And as we know, the highest quality shot in basketball is a quality rim attempt. The next highest quality shot in basketball is a quality catch and shoot attempt. After that, you can get into all these different things in terms of contested rim attempts, contested catch and shoot threes, mid range shot attempts, things

along those lines. And yes, I would like to see the Lakers turn some of their contested mid range attempts into more catch and shoot threes. I would like to see them try to turn more deliberate offensive approach into more high quality catch and shoot threes. But the answer to improving your efficiency in your shot value is not just jacking up more contested catch and shoot threes. Again, it's way too early. As I mentioned in our last rant about this, there's a whole other element to this,

which is confidence. Like, if JJ is trying to breed confidence in his team, he's going to tell them to have just an unbelievable green light and then try to parse it back based on results in the season. Okay, this guy's just shooting the seams off the basketball. I just want him to keep shooting no matter what, anytime he gets any space. Okay, this guy's struggling. He's taken a lot of bad shots. Let's sit down with him and go over some film. Let's try to parse this

back a little bit. So that's the reason why I'm not overreacting to it. There's this whole other confidence element. We want to give JJ time to really build this out over time. However, in the small sample to start preseason, the Lakers approach to increasing the three point volume has just been jacking up bad contest to catch and shoot threes. That's not a strategy that I agree with, and it is something that I will be keeping an eye on

as we get into the regular season. On the bright side, Anthony Davis looks like an absolute monster so far in preseason. He had seventeen post ups that have led to twenty five points including passes. That's one point four to seven points per possession. Last night against the Warriors, he literally looked like Ad from the bubble, just knocking down tough jump shot after tough jump shot, just fluid scoring, just

looking like nobody can guard him. If Anthony Davis is a bona fide MVP candidate, this year, we have to recalibrate the Lakers, and so he's been amazing. Really curious to see if that trickles into the regular season. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. As always, as sincerely appreciate you for supporting the show again. We will be back tomorrow with Sanvessini to debate contenders.