Hoops Tonight - NBA Power Rankings: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland & Cavs ready to take the leap?

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gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by fan Duel here at the volume Happy Friday, everybody. I hope all of you guys had a great week and that you have big plans for the weekend. By the time you're actually listening to this, I will probably be at the place I'm staying in Mexico getting pounded with rain by the hurricane that is moving up the Mexico coast. That should be interesting. Hopefully, wherever I am at this exact moment in time, things

are going well. We're continuing with our power rankings today with number twelve, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Um, you guys of the drill before we get started, subscribe to the volume's YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you don't miss any show announcements, and less but not least, if you can't get back to YouTube to finish one of these shows, you can always find them wherever you

get your podcast under Hoops tonight. So fair warning to Cavs fans. We did just spend about twenty minutes on the Cavs last week after the Donovan Mitchell trade, So this one will be a little bit shorter and in less detail than the one we just did last week, just because we've already hit on a lot of these specific bases. So last year they were twenty in offense, fifth in defense. Despite the injuries that they dealt with, UH, they had a one oh three point seven defensive rating.

With both Evan Mobiley and Jared Allen on the floor together, things ended with them blowing a double digit halftime lead against Atlanta in the play in game. UM super eventful offseason. They signed role On Nett though and Robin Lopez. They should be getting Ricky Rubio back, and they traded their lottery pick as well as uh Lori marken In and Colin Sexton to the Utah Jazz for Donovan Mitchell in addition to three first round draft picks as well as

to swaps. You'll notice that I have the Calves in my Puncher's Chance contender tier. That is how much respect I have for what Donovan Mitchell can do with the basketball in conjunction with Darius Garland, and how good I expect this defense to be if you have a top five defense, which I believe the Calves will have if they are healthy. If they have that, in addition to a hot Donovan Mitchell in a playoff series, they are

capable of beating anybody. Will they be favored in series against the Warriors or the or the Boston Celtics or the Miami Heat or the l A Clippers. No, they won't be favored in a series like that, but they certainly will have a puncher's chance to beat them. That's

why I have them in the contender tier. So if you look at their depth chart as of right now, at the guard position, they have Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Harris Laverte who may or may not end up getting traded when this is all said and done, and Ricky Rubio. On the wing, they have Chetty Osmond, um Isaac Cora, Dylan Windler, and Lamar Stevens. And then the bigs they're going with Jared Allen, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love who once again may or may not be traded before the end

of the season, and Robin Lopez. Pretty deep. The only position that gets a little tricky there is the wing. I like Chetty Osman a lot, he just is gonna be physically overwhelmed by certain matchups. And Isaaca Cora and Lamar Stevens they're they're both really interesting athletes at the position, but they're both a little bit on the short side, which scares me for specific matchups, especially if they run into some of the bigger, stronger wings around the league.

Um The interesting thing is gonna be what they end up deciding to do with Laverte, because even though he's not really of a ton of value to this particular Calves team, he does bring a specific skill set that somebody around the league is going to be interested in. So looking at the offensive end of the floor, this is gonna be a pick and roll team. It's gonna be pick and roll with some more pick and roll,

and then even after that more pick and roll. Donovan Mitchell last year averaged one point zero three points per possession on pick and rolls, which was best in the league among players who ran at least five hundred of them. Darius Garland wasn't quite as good. He was at zero point nine points per possession. The one thing I wanted to to cut him some slack there is, especially after the Collin Sexton injury, he basically became the only legitimate shot creator on the team. That's just a lot to

ask for any player to deal with. We talk a lot about repetition in how if you don't have diversity and attack not just within your individual skill set, but also within your other teammates on the roster and what

they bring to the table. If you don't have diversity of attack, you become easier to defend because if I can look you in the eye and see the same thing over and over and over again, sixties seventy possessions in a game, I'm gonna start to get a little bit more used to what your tendencies are going one way or another, and with that will make me give

me an advantage in trying to defend you. So I do expect Darius Garland's pick and roll point per possession to go significantly up the season now that he's splitting those duties with Darius Garland. And look at the role men. Obviously we know what Jared Allen is. We talked about

him a little bit last week. Jared Allen is a vertical spacer, but he also can do what Rudy Gobert cannot do, which is, if the pick and roll results in a switch for whatever reason, he can run in and get a deep seal underneath the basket and make a short hook shot over his left show, which is something that you know, not many bigs around the league can do and as part of why Jared Allen is

an all star level big. And then Evan Mobley is in a phase of his career, especially as a big man, that should be taking significant leaps as a player in each successive season. And I expect Evan Mobley to be a much better player this season, and that inherently will make things easier for Darius Garland when he runs screening actions with him. Last year, the only other significant type of offense that they ran is post up um. They were fifth in total post ups last year. Tenth inefficiency

um Evan Mobley was. This is insane. Evan Mobley a hundred and fifty one post ups last year, so roughly twice a game. Zero point nine seven points per possession. Doesn't seem like much, but that's pretty solid. That's about as efficient as Jonas Valanciunas is in the post so as a rookie, as thin and wiry and raw as he was, he was every bit as efficient and post ups as Jona's Valanciunas, who is has been a post

up big in this league for a long time. He's just gonna be so insanely good it's not even funny. Jared Allen one point zero six points per possession on post ups, A little bit lower volume, A hundred and seven total during the year, primarily doing it against switches and pick and roll. But that's pretty damn efficient, Kevin Love, not great, hundred fifty post ups for zero point eight

nine points per possession. I brought back nightmares to when obviously, you guys know, I'm a big Lebron James fan, and I was watching Lebron James with Kevin Love and the Cavaliers back, you know, half decade ago. It just Kevin Love post ups just never seemed to work out. The one team that they consistently worked against was like the Toronto Raptors. As as the Calves would consistently destroy the Raptors in the playoffs, it was Kevin Love who would

have have his way with them and post ups. But you know, my my guess is that their offense is going to be a heavy diet of your turn, My turn type of pick and roll attack between Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, and then those pick and rolls specifically to result in switches in certain situations, and then them to attack them in those switches by going to the post. I also think you'll see a take up in isolation out of this group too, because remember again, like in

a pick and roll situation. Let's say it's you know, Evan mobiley and Donovan Mitchell. If Donovan Mitchell gets good separation coming off the screen and the big man has to come out and effectively switches and Donovan Donovan Mitchell's man dives down to grab Evan Mobile. Typically you think, oh, go to the post, but you could also attack the big man in isolation, and Donovan Mitchell was a good

isolation player last year. Out of sixty one players who ran at least one hundred isolations, he finished twelfth inefficiency at one point zero four points per possession, and Darius Garland was actually a little bit better at one point zero six points per possession. I'll be it on lower volumes. So I look at this as a situation where again heavy dye to pick and roll specifically targeting matchups, and that's gonna be the key for this particular group understanding.

You know, if Donovan Mitchell has a better defensive player on him, specifically one that's good at navigating ball screens, they might be better off going more high volume towards Darius Garland and vice versa. And then the same thing with the role man Understanding that if Evan Mobley is being guarded by an exceptional UH screen defender like ball screen defender, it's better to have him spot up and

vice versa with Jared Allen. Right, So from that standpoint, it'll be about being selective about who they attack and where on the floor and then understanding that it u when they result in switches. You've got two players that can attack an isolation from the perimeter against the bigs, and then also two players that can attack the switches down low in the post um. The I would say that with this Mitchell trade again, they were twenty in

offense last year. I think it's realistic to expect that they could bump up as high as number ten and probably somewhere in that ten to fifteen range. So let's just call for sake of argument, if things go really well for them this year, that they end up around tenth in offense um. Moving on to the defensive end of the floor, I expect him to run a ton of drop coverage. This is not gonna be a good

switching team because Darius Garlands very small. Even if Donovan Mitchell improves as a defensive player, he's miles away from being good enough to be a guy that can consistently hold up in isolation. And then Jared Allen, you know Evan mobile can switch out and guard perimeter players. Jared Allen's okay at it, but not great. With this particular group, They're not gonna be able to run a really modern,

switchy type of attack. It's gonna be a lot of navigating screens, and there's going to be a lot of pressure specifically on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to navigate around those screens um to be useful on the defensive end of the floor. The wing is gonna be where their biggest defensive question mark is not because they aren't good there. Again, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are their

weakest defensive players. I'm more concerned in the Eastern Conference with the big wings that they're going to run into. You have to get through Jimmy Butler. You have to get through Jayson Tatum, you have to get through Jalen Brown, you have to get through Jana Santana Kompo. The wings in the Eastern Conference are are are deep, talented, big, strong, versatile, and is a guy like Chetty Osman gonna be able

to hold up athletically in that setting. I don't know, is you know, um uh Lamar Stevens gonna be able to hold up. I don't know is Isaac Cora gonna be able to hold up? I think those two guys are a little bit undersized. Uh Lamar Stevens is big and strong. He'll be but guys will be able to shoot over the top of him. So it's it's one of those things where that specific role of guarding the best big wings in the league a playoff series scares me a little bit. Now, what will end up being

a huge X factor. There's Evan Mobley and big shock. Evan Mobley is my X factor for this particular team, but kind of cheating ahead here. If he could be the guy that could switch on to Jayson Tatum in a playoff series and guard him in the fourth quarter of a pivotal game, or do the same for a Jimmy Butler man, that would go a long way towards

alleviating my concerns on that end of the floor. And then again, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, they're not gonna be able to do a lot of switching, so it's going to come down to them being willing to fight over the top of screens. If they buy in and they at least do the best they can with the physical tools that they have, I think they'll be a

top five defense. Again, I absolutely think that's on the table all right, So the best case scenario, now, I think even Cavs fans would admit that they're not as good defensively on the perimeter as the best teams in the league. Right Like, they're not going to contain on the perimeter the way the Boston Celtics can, or the Miami Heat can, or the Milwaukee Bucks can, or the Golden State Warriors can or the l A Clippers can, right I think even Cavs fans would be willing to

admit that. But interior defense, they'll be as good, if not better than anybody in the league. So, especially in a playoff series when hands get sweaty and guys aren't comfortable taking jump shots, that could be something that works heavily towards their advantage. The same thing could be said

about the offensive end of the floor. I don't think they're gonna be quite as fluid as the top tier offensive teams in the league because of some of the floor spacing stuff with Jared Allen question marks surrounding Evan Mobile and his ability to shoot the basketball question marks

from that three spot. If they can get competence shooting from the wing, I don't think they'll quite be as fluid offensively, but they have that upside punch of what Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland can bring to a playoff series if they get hot, So to put it simply, they have their punchers chance to beat anybody is if Donovan Mitchell has a you know, in the bubble esque run like when he was going up against Jamal Murray.

If he has that type of playoff run and Darius Garland plays well, and they completely and utterly shut down the paint against teams, and they happen to catch a team that shoots poorly, even the best teams. If the Warriors shot poorly, if the Clippers shot poorly, if the Celtics shot poorly, or the Heat shot poorly, or the Bucks shot poorly, and they locked down the paint and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland played well, they can win

a playoff series. Again, like when you have a truly elite skill in this case, perimeter defense excuse me, interior defense and perimeter shot creation. Those two elite skills, provided some other things break your way, can be enough to win a playoff series again if things break your way. So their best case scenario absolutely is winning the championship. It's a long shot, but it's absolutely something that's on

the table for this group. Um their worst case scenario is if their defense takes a step back because you lose lowering market and so you're a little bit smaller on the wing compared to what they had last year. Um if Donovan Mitchell obviously when Colin Sexton went back came out, they played another defensive wing alongside Darius Garland. If you plug Donovan Mitchell there and he plays defense the way he did in Utah, they could take a

step back defensively. Obviously, injuries could be an issue. Jared Allen miss time with a finger last year. Um Uh, it just depends like if if Evan Mobley can stay healthy throughout the season. Everybody is susceptible to injuries on that front. Um. I talked about Evan Mobley taking significant leaps like he shot from three last year. The hope is he shoots better this year. That's not a guarantee though. That's a question mark there if that if his development

is slower than expected. Donovan Mitchell shot selection. I talked a lot about how good Donovan Mitchell is, and he is. He's one of the best on ball creators that we have in this league. But he does has just that tiny bit of that Russell Westbrook syndrome where he struggles to see the total picture of what's happening in a basketball game, and so he can in pivotal moments, especially take a bad shot or turn the basketball over or barrel into traffic and miss a layup or something along

those lines. He does have a little bit of that in his game, and that always is dangerous, especially I talked about this all the time. Playoff series is are are determined by the slightest of margins, and it can take one silly mistake in a pivotal game five when the series is tied at two that can cost you a series, or be the difference from it being to two or being three one that that having their primary shot creator be someone that's a little volatile is a

little concerning to me. So they also have potential to lose in the first round. I don't expect that to be the case. I think that I think the more realistic outcome is they win a playoff series and lose in the second round. But this is a team that has that wide range of outcomes. They have a puncher's chance to win the title of things goes. Things go right, and they could all so losing the first round if things go wrong. So the X factor is Evan Mobley.

You know, obviously, right now, at this exact moment in time, he's already a great defensive player. He's already one of the better shot blockers that we have in the league. He already can switch out and defend on the perimeter pretty well. But there's just a little bit of finicky nous on offense right Like he only from three last year. He's still young. He passes the ball well, but his assisted turnover ratio wasn't great last year. It's more of

like a potential thing. I think in the long run he's going to be potentially a better version of Anthony Davis because of what he can do from the perimeter with quick feet. He's got a long way to go to get there, but that is potential that he has and it's potential that I believe he could reach that. Said he in order for them to reach their ceiling this particular season, they need him to take that leap sooner than later. They need him to bump up his

three point percentage from twenty five to thirty five. They need him to bulk up a little bit so he can defend those stronger wings. Like I talked about him being able to guard a Jimmy Butler in the fourth quarter of Game four of a T one playoff series, could be the difference between this team losing and winning in that particular series. So he his development, how good he becomes in this campaign, will be the biggest indicator of what this team can do. Therefore, he is their

X factor. Um, Cavs fans, if you wanted more on this particular team, I did do about twenty minutes on them last week right after the trade, so you can find that a little bit deeper in our in our YouTube feed. That's all I have for today, and that's it for this weekend. We will be back Monday with number eleven. As always, I appreciate your guys a support and I'll see you. And then the volume