Hoops Tonight - NBA Playoff Picks: Will Warriors repeat? LeBron & Lakers chances, Bucks vs. Celtics

just depending on how some scheduling stuff works out. But we are going to go big picture today and talk about my picks going into this postseason run in the grand scheme of things, not just for the first round, but as we head into the deeper parts of the Western Conference, in the Eastern Conference playoffs, in the NBA Finals, and then we're also going to get into some stuff about expected upsets and some of the ramifications for teams that might not quite live up to what their expectations

are in this postseason run. And as is usually the case, I can think of no one better than mister Carson, one of our favorites a fan favorite to join the show, Carson, How you doing, man? I am great, Jason. We have finally made it yesterday. I don't care what anybody says about the quality of the game. That was playoff basketball, playoff intensity, playoff stakes, and there's just nothing like that in the world to me. So I cannot wait for two full months ago. Yeah, you know, it's so funny too.

It's like I saw a lot of people complaining about the ugliness of the basketball, and it's like, that's not just a playoff game, that's also a monumentally important single game sample of a playoff game, right Like, for instance, that might be a game the Lakers punt in a playoff series, like you're down fifteen in the third quarter or whatever. You might just be like, we don't have

it tonight. We'll get them in game two. Right Like, they played like absolute crazy to get back into that game because there was so much at stake, especially for an older team to get that Friday off because now they have four full days off before their matchup on Sunday. It was so vitally important. And again, like when it's like Game seven of the NBA Finals in twenty sixteen, and did ninety three to eighty nine, like they are. They're going to be ugly when there's a lot at stake,

and I'm not going to be overly judgmental. So many people were like, these are two bad teams fighting out last night. I thought it was actually two pretty damn good teams fighting it out. Yeah. I agree. I had like a complete opposite take from the majority of people on that game. I thought it was a lot of fun, and I thought in some ways it just showed what the Lakers are capable of in Minnesota. You mentioned in Minnesota, I mean very strong forty minutes from them. It was

kind of just that closing stretch. So you mentioned that we're gonna take a big picture here and we'll start out in the West, where a lot of people have view this as a very open conference. Throughout the year, You've had the Warriors as the defending champs but struggling in terms of consistency, the Nuggets always at the top of the conference, but some questions about how it translates

to the playoff stage. Then you have like the Sons and Lakers emerging with their late season acquisitions, changing their rosters. So out of that entire conference, who do you think it is actually going to be the last one standing here making it to the finals. Jason, So, I was so on the fence about this, even coming into this morning when I sat down with my notes, I was on the fence completely between the Lakers, the Warriors, and the Suns. And again, like, this is not to me.

It has to do with an extremely flawed field. I think with the Nuggets in particular, they were in a situation where they could not let their foot off the gas to end the season because because of their defensive shortcomings, it was so vitally important in my opinion, for them to be locked in heading into the playoffs. Now they might tighten some things up in the first round. And you know, here's the thing with these predicts, Like we're

doing the best we can to make these guesses. But the reality is is like chances are both of us will feel very differently two weeks from now, and then feel very differently again two weeks from then. That doesn't that's just reacting to new information. That's just being smart. That's there's no point in being stubborn and going down with the ship of your pick. And then at the end of the day, these are just predictions, and the

game of basketball is incredibly unpredictable. That's why we love watching it so much, and so at the end of the day, we could be you know, I could pick all eight first round series is wrong, or I I could pick them all right, like, who the hell knows what's going to happen. But Denver, I think I think they needed to be locked in on the details defensively to be ready to make this run, and instead they

just completely regressed. Sacramento obviously, I mean they're a huge underdog against the Warriors, that they're they're an unserious team. The Clippers without Paul George, I don't think have any

real chance with the Grizzlies. I was I did this series preview for the Lakers last night, and I was digging into the numbers, and they've been pretty much a mediocre team beating up on an easy schedule post deadline, and the Lakers are also beating up on a bad schedule post deadline, but they've been way more impressive in doing so. Very good defensively, very good, rebounding, all these different a lot of hallmarks that look well. And Lebron James was out for most of that, so you knew

there was an additional ceiling there. But I don't take Memphis as a serious title contender, and I keep coming down to the Lakers, the Sons, and the Warriors, and it's all because of their potential ceiling. Right with the Lakers, it's the idea of this elite defense with Lebron James and Anthony Davis playing at the top of their games.

With the Suns, it's just this kind of like a better version of the Brooklyn Nets in twenty twenty one, just like two other worldly pull up jump shooters spamming high pick and roll all game, but with a better center that they're playing with in some additional playmaking and Chris Paul, but similar issues to the Nets in terms of depth and like kind of a thin physical profile that struggles under the physicality of the NBA playoffs. So

just a slightly better version of the Nets. And then as we go to the Warriors, it's like defending champ and all these different things, but there's just a little bit missing, right, like Namania be Elites. I actually played pretty well in the NBA Finals for the Warriors last year. Otto Porter was so important. Gary Payton obviously he's back now, but Andrew Wiggins had such an amazing playoff run. So there are these like kind of these big question marks

that undercut all three of those teams. And for me, I just was under the impression that if I was in a situation where I was on the fence, I was gonna go with the team that is the defending champion. They most recently played the necessary level of basketball to get out of this type of playoff environment. You know, for KD, it's been a couple of years. For a lot of the guys in that roster, it's been a couple of years since they've had that level of success.

The Lakers haven't done so since October of twenty twenty, and even they looked a little shell shocked by the intensity of that game last night. I've been on the fence and tie goes to the defending champ. So I'm gonna pick the Golden State Warriors to get out of the Western Conference. Where are you at? And don't say Denver? That's it surprised me. I do not have Denver, Jason. I would take the Suns right now. To me, this is clearly the most top end talent, Like if we're

looking at the top two share. The Lakers go toe to toe with them, absolutely, but to have CP three a Atan allowed to specialize in their roles more not having the offensive burden of the kind of creation where at this point CP doesn't want to take on a high volume role. ATEN isn't the most developed. Like this is a team that has two efficient twenty eight point per game scores with incredible versatility too, which is so important when you're talking about how players translate to that

playoff stage. Being able to remain unpredictable, to make shots from anywhere on the court, to make shots out of any action, and that is like what Book and Kadi epitomized. Katie just flat out as the best player in the conference to me, the best score alive, having a career defensive and playmaking season, and his teams have been thirty four and thirteen when he plays. But Book is also having a career season in basically all those same categories, defense, playmaking,

and scoring. This is the best version of him that we've ever seen, and we know that his scoring can translate to that playoff stage. We saw it two years ago and he's better now. So you have these guys who can dominate out a pick and roll where Katie's ninety eight percentile book is sadie first percentile, but who also can be lethal catch and shooters, who can come off of screens, who can score from the mid range.

And I just don't see the other offense that has that level of just reliable production at the top and also has reached a pretty high defensive ceiling this season. Like when we see this top four together for Phoenix, it's only been in eight games, take it with a grain of salt because the competition hasn't been great either. But they have a plus seventeen point four net rating. They've been equivalent to the number one offense the number one defense. They're eight and oh, I just believe this

is the most talented team in the conference. I think that they have a level of polish of consistency that we haven't seen from the Lakers. Because if ab and Lebron I consistently believe we're going to be the best version of themselves, they'd be my pick because that they

have the best cast of role players overall. But we just say Lebron have one of the worst defensive passing overall effort games outside of just I'm on the ball, I'm gonna go get myself a bucket that I can remember from him and in a d although he's had a great year, too often is susceptible to not being that hyper aggressive, dominant score that he has to be to maximize his value. So I don't have those questions with the Sun's top two, and people look at the

depth and seeing that as a concern. I get it. But if josh Okogi is making thirty five percent of his threes, he's really good because he's a really good point of attack defender, he's athletic, he attacks closeouts confidently. It's just sometimes he can't shoot the ball from life of him, and so that's kind of the swing factor. But they have added some size, some capable wing player to that bench, so I feel better about it than

I did when they first made the Kadi trade. Like I think we've seen with the acquisition of a Terrence Cross Okogie growing into his game. Tory Craig is fine, not gonna be a strength, but it's not a strength for the Nuggets. The bench, like after Bruce Brown, it's a bunch of question marks. Warriors. You could argue maybe with the level Deven Sheens on Cominga have been playing at. But I think that the reality for them is we haven't seen it consistently this year at all, and there's

so much that needs to come together. They're so fast, like the consistent level of defense that they would need. Last year, they were the best defense in the league in the regular season. That was the foundation. This year it's been Draymond unbelievable. Everybody else question Mark to say the least, and I think a lot of guys had to play really well on that run. Pool was significantly better than he's been night tonight in this year. Like

he was efficient, he was highly productive. This year, he's been a roller coaster. Wiggins was great. Wiggins is just gonna be playing his first basketball now Auto Porter Junior. Yeah, maybe they can supplement some of that with the Deven Sheens on COMINGA editions, But I just don't feel that this team has consistently shown us the level of basketball that, even in a small sample size, Phoenix has, and I

believe in that Phoenix talent above all else. So the Nuggets, I don't think they have the defensive ceiling and if anybody, I mean may maybe the Warriors could exploit the Suns because of Steph's shot making, his perimeter dominance, and that's not the strength of this Phoenix defense that would be on the interior. But I just think two ways top end guys, they have a combination and the formula that I believe in the Moss. You know, again, if they end up being the team in the finals, I will

not be surprised. Like I said, I actually view the Suns on the same level as the Warriors and Lakers right now. It's more just benefit of the doubt that I'm giving towards Golden State. Again, I just look at games like last night, and I constantly get reminded of this every year. You know, it amazes me, Carson every single year, that immediate transition to playoff basketball, like and how even though we know it's coming, you're like, whoa,

that's so different, Like it's just so unbelieving. I remember being blown away again last year when I was watching

Brooklyn versus Boston. I think it was game two where because the first game was the crazy Kyrie game where he almost stole it, but they ended up losing any way on that wild spinning layup from Jason Tatum and then Game two was just an absolute blood bath on both ends of the floor, right and like, and I remember sitting there thinking, like, as I was watching last night, there's just these finesse type of players typically start to struggle a little bit as we get to this phase. Now.

To be clear, Kevin Durant, for the most part in his career has thrived in that environment. But a big part of that was for you know, he's been playing alongside a ton of offensive talent since he went to Golden State and into Brooklyn and so and Phoenix also has that type of offensive talent. So I think he's going to be in good shape there. But with Devin Booker, I mean we have basically two real playoff runs from him, one where he made all those shots and one where

he missed all those shots. And with Kevin Durant and his last two playoff runs, we had one where he made all those shots in twenty twenty one and it was enough or could have been enough, and then he missed all of them last year against Boston. And so I think there's not enough diversity in their attack in my opinion, from the standpoint of where they like to get their offense for them to be the juggernaut that so many people have claimed for them to be. And

I don't think you're claiming that, to be clear. I think you're just looking at a bunch of flawed teams and you're saying Phoenix is the best bet. And I can see that. But I think this Sun's team is beatable. I think they're thin. I think they can be susceptible

to physicality. I think, for instance, one of we're gonna talk upsets in a little bit, you know, don't be surprised if if he kazoo Back just just outplays the shit out of Deandreton, Like you know that that's the type of thing that could happen in a series against a team like that. Like he's their most physically imposing player, and he's kind of got a little bit of a reputation for being inconsistently competitive in these types of environments. So again, I'm not I'm not trying to say the

Suns can't do it. I think they're a top tier Western Conference contender. Wouldn't be surprised at off they get out. But right now I want to say Golden State. The one thing I will say is the Laker defense last night. I don't know if you saw this, Carson. In the final eleven minutes of the game, they allowed two field goals.

One was a runout dunk after a bad Lebron James contested o'clock jump shot, where the Lakers, who have a bad transition defense, basically gave Anthony Edwards a run out dunk. And then with less than twenty seconds left, when the game was basically over, they lightened up their defense a little bit. Anthony Edwards made like a little shot in the lane. Other than that that they completely shut off

the water of that Minnesota Timberwolves team. So if I see enough at a Lebron James and Anthony Davis in this series against Memphis to where they unlock a necessary offensive polish and they get enough of their role players going, that was kind of an underrated storyline last night. D'Angelo Russell was awful. Austin Reeves played his last, his worst

game in weeks. Troy Brown Junior was horrendous when you and Gabriel was off the floor in a matter of minutes, like Troy Brown Junior was making mistakes right and left, like Jared Vanderbilt was unplayable towards the end of the game, and they had to go with Ruey Hods Murraer. They found enough guys to do what they needed to do. But there's some these finesse types of players just they they tend to struggle a little bit in this environment.

But like, if the Lakers can get it together against Memphis, I actually think they have a higher ceiling than all three of these teams. But again, with all the with all of the current available information, I go with Golden State. It's interesting. I do definitely value physical imposition in the playoffs, but I would argue that if there's an exception for me, it's probably Kevin freaking because we have seen it a whole lot of times. Let's flip to the east here,

who do you have coming out of there? So again I came in completely on the fence, and I was I was on Milwaukee pretty strong a few months ago when they were coming on strong. I still think janis deserved to win MVP, but it's it looks like he's it looks like you might actually I was looking at some of the early turns and it looks like he might end up finishing second because Yokich basically punted the MVP at the end of the season. But you know,

it was funny. What ended up closing the deal for me last night was this morning was the game last night again just watching the physicality and being kind of like, you know, shocked by it again like I always am.

And you know, I look at that game where Boston went into Milwaukee and they kicked their ass, and I look at like how they did it, and it was a lot of like early in the game, just Milwaukee was missing shots, which they have a propensity to do from time to time, but like Boston was very comfortable and they were just knocking down these pull up threes

in the first quarter. And then as the game progressed, they really unlocked their driving kick game and they were getting wide open shots and they were picking them to pieces, no doubt. But like I know, Milwaukee in that series, early on, probably Game one, is going to come in desperate knowing that they're terrified of what boston ceiling is, and they're gonna bring a level of physicality that I

think is going to rattle them. And I just think that as that series progresses, Milwaukee's physical advantages will continue to bear through Drew Holliday just being built like a truck for that environment. Janni s Antenna Kompo. Obviously there's gonna be a lot of debate over whether or not teams can play Brook Lopez off the floor. I don't really think there's a team that can do it this year, so I'm gonna I was on the fence, but I

ended up going with Milwaukee. I just think as the playoffs get more and more physical, that they're going to thrive in that environment. Well, I think Boston is going to go down to level. We have very similar thinking here. I also have Milwaukee, and I've felt pretty confident about this for most of the year, even though Boston has

been incredible and they're better than last year. Right, they have so many different, potentially exceptional sources of offense, just when you look at the depth of their guard play this year, and obviously the top winging tandem. But it is the physicality and when I look at last year's series how close Milwaukee was without Chris Middleton. First of all, I think that Milwaukee easily could have won that series if they had just shot the ball well like they

were twenty eight percent from deep. They were four or thirty three in Game seven, And I think that this year they have proven to be a good enough shooting team. They've been fourth and three point percentag since the All Star Break. They've consistently been a high volume team. Those are the kind of looks that Jannis creates most frequently to where you can't load up on Yannis as shamelessly

as Boston did and have that same result. Like, I just believe in them making those shots, and I do not think that there is another way to stop Yannis, and especially if Middleton is out there, and so now you have another legitimate perimeter shotmaker and playmaker alongside Drew

who alleviates that pressure. It just feels like we feel Milwaukee and their ability when you're talking about Yannis to get wherever he wants on the court, and then it's just a matter of are we gonna help shamelessly or are we gonna, you know, pray that he misses around the rim? Pretty much, we know that they're gonna dominate

on the glass because they always do. We know that that defense is going to be stellar, and that physical imposition and the fact that I do believe they'll shoot the ball better the fact that I like their depth more as much as I do Boss and write. With the additions of an Angles Crowder, Bobby portis being better than he's ever been before. I have faith in the team that it feels like can get what they want

more readily. And that's because of Jannis versus Tatum. Bottom line, as we've talked about before, Tatum is not Kevin Durant, right. I don't think that Tatum is going to make fifty percent of us pull up jump shots. I think he's liable in any game to make and then he completely flips on his head as a player. And so in this series, I definitely do go more to that physicality arena where I think Milwaukee clear is advantage. I still think it would be a great series. Is are two

great two way teams with awesome stars, awesome depth. But give me him why. Of course it's gonna be an entertaining series. And again, like we talked about at the beginning of the show, like if Boston wins, I'm not going to be shocked by any stretch of the imagination.

I just think about like, like, look at the end of that game last night, there was there was this weird play in ot where like Anthony Davis just surrounded by like three guys and Lebron's in the corner and he just kind of like throws basically a jump ball to the top of the square and ad just rises up in the group over everybody and grabs it and puts it in the basket. There was like another play.

There was another play late in the fourth quarter where Lebron got an offensive rebound putback where it was like the ugliest play in the history of mankind. And I can't even remember what exactly let it led into it, but Lebron ended up like in the scrum, just coming out with the basketball and just going up and making

an offensive rebound put back. It's like so many of these rock fights just come down to, like who's the I always joke I make a pool basketball analogy, Like you know, when you play pool basketball, there's no dribbling, Like I haven't played since I was younger, but like I'd bring a bunch of my buddies over who were all like college basketball players, and we'd play pool basketball. It was just a blood bath because you're just beating the shit out of each other each other trying to

fight for position. Around the basket, Like that's just kind of what playoff basketball reminds me of. And again, in a situation like that, having brook Lopez, having Jannis having Drew Holiday, you brought up the shooting part, and that's such an important detail. Like Javon Carter has gone up a level as a shooter compared to last year. Joe Ingles on the floor just gives them another option. It'll

depend on perimeter defense. There will be some matchups where he might struggle like he's It'll be interesting to see if he moves his feet a well a feet well enough when Boston goes five out, but like he can shoot the laces off the basketball. And then last year without they didn't have the PJ. Tucker piece, And look, Jay Crowder is not as good as PJ. Tucker and some of those dirty work elements of the game, but he's a reasonable facsimile of that, and he's a better

offensive player. And so you put Jay Crowder out there, it's just and again that's just another option for them to go to in specific matchup situations. Boston is better than they were last year, but so is Milwaukee and and all those things considered, I just think they're the safest bet I think they're both significantly and that's why I think we're in for like an Eastern Conference finals for the ages. But just looking at the precedent, I

totally agree with you. If we look at recent champions, last year's an exception because they're the Golden State Warriors, right, and Steph Curry is an offensive player like we've never seen. We've seen them do it four times now with this pull up um shooting formula. But the year before that, Milwaukee solid shooting roster, not a good shooting postseason, they were thirty two percent from deep, but they were the

most physically imposing. They were dominant getting to the rim, and they were great defensively because of their length, size, athleticism, physicality. Lakers the year before that, not a good shooting team, but they were winning in those same categories. Physicality, the imposition from their top guy, the defensive sea when they could reach. So how do you think there's a legitimate precedent that says, unless you are exceptional in this, hey

we're gonna win with our skill. It makes sense to bet on the teams that have that physical dominance when they also have, you know, great offensive creation like you get from a Janis or a Lebron or whoever's in that range. So we've covered both conferences. Now who do you are winning the title? Jason? So I went with the Bucks. Now again I have this line up with the Warriors, but I feel the same way if they faced Phoenix, I think the Bucks will have the best

player in the series. They'll have the best defense in the series. I think one of the biggest swing factors in this series if the Warriors were to make it is can they play Brook Lopez off the floor? But we've seen a pretty consistent theme now where teams are starting to basically just sag way back into the paint on Draymond Green Cavaloni, which they've always done. But now what the guards are doing is they're no longer locking and trailing as much they do when they have to

when they get out of position. And that's why transition is such an important part for Golden Steak. Getting out in transition and they're blender, they'll use their sets to try to get guys out of position so that they can get into a lock and trail position. But most of these guards now know it's like actually, like you can just give up a backcut because who cares, You've

got rim protection behind you. And so they're able to really really aggressively overplay some of these off ball screening actions. And so again, I don't know that they'll be able to play Lopez off the floor. Now, if they were, that would be a huge swing factor in the series, because suddenly they don't become as imposing physically. But here's the thing again, and this is not a Warrior's take, but the Bucks have been the better team all season.

They've been the best team all season. They have the best player in the league. So, like, if I'm trying to pick again, like and I think the Warriors absolutely have a chance to win the title, just like I think the Lakers do, just like I think the Suns do, just like I think the Sixers do, just like I think the Celtics in Bucks do. But if I'm picking what I think is the safest bet, I think right now Milwaukee is the safest bet to win the title. I've felt all year that whoever wins the title is

pretty clearly going to come out of the East. And I've been on the side of Milwaukee or Boston. Leaning Milwaukee It's not a tough pick for me. I think that if you're going to compare them too. For example, Phoenix's roster, the town on the top four is comparable. Like Milwaukee is going to bring out the best play in the league, Giannis, maybe the best two way guard or the best defensive guard who's also an offensive star.

Drew Holliday, this dominant interior defender in lethal three point shooting, Big Brook Lopez and Chris Middleton who we saw two years ago scored twenty four at night and was this incredible second creator in a title run. And then the five through eight they are whooping Phoenix. Is that Like Milwaukee's depth is so good, and so I'm very comfortable with that. And again it comes down to also just

the reliability of that physical dominance. I think it's gonna be whoever comes out of the East unless somebody really impresses me in this playoff run in the West, and

I do think it's gonna be Milwaukee. Yeah, And again, like we will, we are going to be doing shows throughout the postseason, and we'll react to new information if there are teams that look more impressive as the playoffs progress, like like here's the thing we both picked the Bucks, but like, if Yannis got hurt in the round one, it's not like we're gonna be like, hey, we're sticking with the Bucks. Is that, you know? Like if we're not like that, we're making predictions because that's part of

our job. But at the end of the day, we're going to react to new information as it comes along, and at every single round we'll kind of circle back to these topics and try to figure out where we're at. Absolutely, and that's part of what's so fun about this postseason potentially is that it does feel like there are so many different teams who could bring it up to a level that we haven't seen consistent as wide open as

I've ever seen in my time following the league. Absolutely, So with that in mind, there is definitely potential for a few upsets in this first round here as we look at how this seating has shaken out. What's your favorite upset pick, Jason for the first round? So, I think the Lakers and Warriors are both going to win their series, and technically the Lakers is a small upset in Vegas. I think they're like plus one oh eight

right now or something like that. The Warriors are actually a significant favorite, so it doesn't count as a as an upset. Now. I don't believe either of these teams will win, but there are two significant underdogs right now Vegas. The Clippers are plus three eighty five to beat the Suns and the Nets are plus five sixty to beat the Sixers. And again, I will be picking the Suns and I will be picking the Sixers, both probably in five games or less. But my favorite upset pick is

in the team that's most likely to do so. Is the Clippers. Now with the Nets, you know, I try to talk myself into it. I'm like, okay, so they're super athletic and long on the wing. Maybe they, you know, really just just double the hell out of Joel Embiid and solve some of this rotation stuff. And I have no doubt that the Nets will be able to cause

some frustrations for the Philly from an offensive standpoint. But on the other end of the floor, all I can think of is, like, is Mkhale, Bridges and Spencer Dinwoodie going to be able to consistently get stops when you know that Joel Embiad's gonna be around the rim all series because they're gonna have to play Claxton as much as they as much as humanly possible. So like, I

just don't see that as realistic. With the Clippers, you can kind of start to dry, like draw a line to see how it could go, Like maybe Kawhi just outplays kd Well, Like that's on the table. I wouldn't predict it. I think Katie's a better player. But that's if that happened, Like you and I'd be like, hey, that was cool. Remember when Kawhi out played like we wouldn't be stunned, you know, Um, Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell both could play well. The suns are not a

good point of attack defense. That's the one weakness there. I think they'll probably end up deploying um Josha Kogi as much as they can on on kawhile Nard just just by this just for the simple fact is he can take that responsibility off from a workload standpoint, even though he's giving up some size there. Um, I think they'll probably throw Tory Craig on him a little a little bit as well. But like you wouldn't be surprised if if Russ and Powell got good matchups and they

you know, lived in the paint all series long. We talked about this earlier in the show, but if zoo Box just just just dominated Deandreton wouldn't be surprised if zue Box just a better play in a lot of the physical areas of the game. He's as he's not as versatile offensively when it comes to, you know, the type of shot making that DeAndre Ayton can go to, but he's got a really reliable jump pook. He's excellent

at fight. He's definitely a more physical player. You know, Aton's got a higher defensive ceiling, but he's rarely at that ceiling, you know, So that that's a matchup that could go the Clippers way. And and then the bench units we've talked about that, you know, the Clippers bench unit could have a good amount of success against Phoenix. So and then there's always the potential that Chris Paul could just have a nightmare series. So it's certainly possible.

And I would say that of the long shot underdogs, they are the most likely to get a first round upset. I like it. I find that it's pretty unlikely, but you can't see the formula and I will say, like, we have seen the Clippers, because of their shooting ceiling, be able to survive the absence of one of their

two stars. Like we saw it right. It was only two games against Utah, but they beat Utah game that Utah team that was quite good in the regular season without Kawhi Leonard because it was hey, well, that was a specific matchup because they were able to really exploit Gobert going five out. But nevertheless it was we have our one great offensive creator, We're going to shoot the hell out of the ball, and they had versatile defensive

pieces who did their jobs well. I do have a couple issues with this Clippers team, one being that I think they've regressed defensively. They do still have a really nice spacing offensively, but I do have some concerns about the fact that Russ probably needs to be in a relatively high volume roll with PG out, like if they want that upside, because he brings the upside right, the dynamic athleticism getting to the rim, but there's a lot of downside that comes with that too, and so I

like it. I can see the path. I can't see the path with Brooklyn. I can't see the path with any of these like eight one matchups, we don't know exactly what they are, but either way, so if you're going with a more strict definition of an upset, then

I like that pick. My first thought here is Lakers Grizzlies, though, because I don't even consider Warriors Kings an upset, as you said, because of the odds, and Lakers Grizzlies, sure, in terms of betting odds is effectively a toss up, but it's still a two seven, and there's a lot of people who are really low on the Lakers after last night, it seems because it was that kind of rock fight game. But I just have a lot of questions about Memphis in the playoffs, and I think there's

a lot to like about Lli. Like I understand that Memphis is able to produce really high level regular season offenses, but great playoff offenses tend to have a top tier offensive engine and probably really good shooting, and Memphis doesn't have either of those. They don't have great pull up shooting, they don't have a great spot up shooting, and Jaw is not a reliable top end offensive engine, right He's liable to have a totally off shooting night, he's liable

to be an efficient in that role. You're not talking about Lebron, Steph, etc. And the Lakers really do shrink the court defensively, like their length, their athleticism there. I'm telling you, if Lebron's just decides in this playoff roun, hey, I'm actually gonna care. They could easily be the best defense,

absolutely a top tier defense, out of this field. And it scares me for Memphis to have the court shrunk when so much of what they're doing is relying on jaw getting to the rim, and they're gonna have to trust their shooters who just really haven't been all that

good at it. Like Triple Jake could be interesting with that pick and pop game, force Ad to guard on the perimeter more if that's the matchup, But it just doesn't really scare me this Memphis offense, whereas La, I know that Lebron and a D are probably gonna turn out a pretty good offense. It's gonna be physical, it's gonna be slow, it might not be dynamic shooting, but they're gonna produce. And I do think that this guard group in conjunction with one another, when you have good

Austin Reeves or good Dennis shooter. You don't need good deal, right, You probably just need two out of the three. And all those guys are very capable creators, capable defenders can score in playmak in their different ways, and so I just trust the offensive formula more from LA. I think they can reach a higher defensive ceiling without Steven Adams, without Brandon Clark, Memphis doesn't look as good in that let's just physically bully you kind of mold not that

would be easy against the Lakers anyway. So we've just seen that Memphis offense fall off. We've seen Lebron and a d elevated playoff offense, and even though these are different iterations, I kind of still fundamentally believe that that's

the difference between these two teams. Yeah, it's funny. When the game ended last night, I was kind of like looking at that series as a toss up, and then I dug into it because I was just wired after that game and after we worked and I was just like I was just like, I'm awake from my wife's

out of town. She's on a business trip. I was like, you know what, I'm just gonna start diving into this series, and every passing minute that I was looking into it more, I became more and more confident that the Lakers would win. It's really this simple. The Grizzlies postdadline. We talked about this a little bit earlier, but the Grizzlies post aadline have gone from being a great defensive team and a great rebounding team to a good defensive team and a

bad rebounding team. That's just what the loss of Brandon Clark and Steven Adams does to you. I think one of the biggest, you know, adjustments that will see over the course of this series is You're gonna see I think because of the defensive ceiling that the Lakers can get to and the way they can shrink the floor, you're gonna see Taylor Jenkins have to make the incredibly difficult decision to downsize, and I think he's gonna go

down in this series. With Tys Jones on the floor, I think it's gonna be John Morant and Tis Jones with Desmond Baine, Dylan Brooks, and Jaren Jackson that gives them their best chance to score against that Laker unit. Here's the problem four of those dudes are six six or smaller. Yeah, and two of them are tiny guards. So and obviously Tis Jones a little bigger than Job

from the standpoint of strength. But like they're gonna the Lakers, I think are gonna be able to play them down into smaller lineups where they can be even more physically imposing. I love the point you made about the guards, and this is one of my favorite things, Like when I look at when I look at championship contenders, I always look at these like specific call marks they have to hit, Like do they have the ability to hit the necessary defensive ceiling, Yes, the Lakers do. Do they have the

rim protection because it's not just about perimeter defense. Rim protection and size around the pain is specifically important. Yes, you know, the ability to rebound, diversity of shock creation, so for instance, like having a big rim pressuring forward and a pull up shooting guard that can play in high pick and roll, like being able to score different ways offensively. But one of the big things that I look at is diversity of play style and the ability

to make adjustments, the ability to have options. And that's what I love about this Laker's roster is like you can they're going to be if they play in multiple series, they're going to be series where it's like, oh, man, like Vanderbilt, lebron A d is the way to go, and and you know that frontline just with length and athleticism is going to kill everybody. But then there's going to be a series where it's like, Okay, the wing player that they have to guard is not necessarily a

quick guy. He's more of a strong guy. And now we can bring in Ruey Hatchamura because he's bigger and stronger and he can hang more in those physical altercations, and he's actually having his best defensive season of his career, and he's so much more offensively skilled than Jared Vanderbilt,

which gives you this offensive influx. Even just last night, the ability to deploy Dennis Schroeder when Dilo is just completely checked out of the game mentally, you're throwing Dennis Schroeder and he's actually like a really good and impactful player in this series. I think this series is going to be a big Dennis Schroeder series because of what he's gonna do on ball against John Moran. You know, if they have those options there, like Ossa Reeves had

a rough night last night. If Dilo had it going and Austin didn't. There's a version of that game where it's Dennis Schroder and DeAngelo Russell that are on the floor, and they have gone to that group at times over the course of this end of the season. So this

the Laker group checks a lot of boxes. Honestly, the only reason why I haven't picked them is question mark surrounding Lebron James, because you you just absolutely AD's inability to handle double teams has just made him have a certain ceiling when it comes to the offensive end of the floor in the playoffs, and so like, Lebron at the end of the day, has to be their best player if they're going to win the title, and right now he's not. AD's their best player, and so that's

where my question marks are. But I don't think they need Lebron to be their best player to beat Memphis. I think they're going to be any Any move to try to counter the physical advantage of the Lakers, like, for instance, going with Xavier Tillman or a guy like David Roddy to do anything to increase their physical profile will immediately make them much easier to guard, which will put them in a predicament where they could run into some real problems against a really locked in Laker defense.

Completely agree with you, and I also love the versatility that we see with this Lakers team. And it really does matter because sure you can look at the whoever the third best guy on this team might be on any given night, and it's not gonna vow you, but it's the ability to mix and match, to play different combinations for different strengths, to unlock that athletic ceiling, defensive ceiling at times that shotmaking. Nobody else has the amount

of combinations I don't. I don't think that the Lakers do. And I mentioned this Grizzlies offense regressing in that playoff setting. Well, last year they were the number four regular season offense and then in the playoffs they were the number ten playoff offense out of sixteen teams. It's just tough when you don't have that consistent, super reliable shot making or as we've talked about, a Janis Lebron like, just get to the rim at will, no matter what, manufacture offense

at that high level. Okay, so we've talked about our favorites. We've talked about upset candidates here. Out of all of the legitimate contenders, you see in this playoff field, Jason who was most likely to just blow up their roster after this year. So I'm excited to get into this because I was looking at it this morning and there's a lot of candidates that and I blow up is aggressive, and we'll get to that because I have a pick there.

But like, there's a lot of teams that I think are gonna have to look at serious changes if they don't rise to the top of this pile. So, first of all, the clear knows like Boston Boston staying as is regardless of what happens. They just have too much talent and their stars are young, so you can expect

them to continue to get better. I don't think the Lakers, because of how good they have been post deadline, even if they were to lose to Memphis, they're going to attribute that to Lebron being at less than one hundred percent and short just kind of like they're gonna look at it like, hey, let's get another training camp under our belt, right, But the one, the one thing that would make the Lakers a candidate is if Anthony Davis got hurt again, because then that thing that I keep

talking about, where like if the dude just can't finish a playoff run, that's obviously an issue. The Nuggets. No, I think the Nuggets are running it back no matter what. I think. Even they can look at this like dude, Jamal Murray was still kind of coming back, like we can hit another level here. The Suns, I think are going to run it back no matter what happens. Everybody else, though, Like the Sixers, like they lose, you're probably gonna see at least Stock Rivers get fired and then maybe some

changes in evolving James Harden. If the Clippers lose, I think you could end up seeing some changes. We'll get back to them in just a second. The Warriors. The Warriors lose, I would not be surprised if you saw a significant piece from the core removed. I don't think they'd go full rebuild, but I think they could. You I wouldn't be surprised if you saw one of like Clay Thompson or Draymond Green or Jordan Pool end up

changing teams after the season. The Milwaukee Bucks, even I think if they came up short, I think they'd start to look at Chris Middleton and Drew Holliday is not good enough or reliable enough to be a legitimate number two,

and then start to make some changes. The one team that I could see going full rebuild if it goes south, is the LA Clippers, similar logic to what I had been using with the Anthony Davis thing, like you don't like I still have people in my mentions every day like, oh, you want to trade a D. No, I don't, but I think a D like like there was a moment last night in the first half when he almost had that tip dunk, when he was just dominating the game

on both ends of the floor athletically where I was like, is anybody better than this guy? Like like literally, you know yeah, But like if if you got hurt again, that'd be three years in a row, and like, how can you expect to build a team and plan for

the NBA playoffs if you can't stay healthy? And like I kind of look at that from the Clippers perspective, like they the first year they lose disappoint and disappointing fashion in the bubble, which is really where you could start to look at from a team building standpoint, having redundancy of pull up jump shooting, a lack of rim protection, all all those sorts of things, which is a separate topic, but like after that, it's like it's it's been a

pretty steady diet of like Kauai couldn't make it through the first playoff run, then Kawhi misses an entire season. Now Paul George potentially is going to miss a playoff run, Like, at what point do you look at this and go, what are we doing here? Not to mention, a lot of their key role players are starting to age out, you know, like Marcus Morris is like who knows if if you're if we're going to see Marcus Morris play at all in this first round series or being impactful

at all. Robert Covington is fully fell a fallen out of the rotation. Nick Batum like has been mostly good for the Clippers, but he's getting older and older, Like, at what point do you look at this and go, we are beyond saving and get as much as you possibly can for Paul George and as much as you possibly can for Kawhi Leonard and start over at that point, especially when you don't have any draft compensation, and you're one way to do that is to flip those stars.

So I think if the Clippers lose embarrassingly in the first round, that they would be the team most likely to blow up this summer. The Clippers are so tough to evaluate, but because when you think about the actual basketball product that we've seen them put out there at full strength, it's consistently been pretty darn good. Like obviously you mentioned that initial playoff disappointment, but I thought they were going to win the West in twenty twenty one.

I thought that that was the best version that we've seen of them. That was amazing PG, that was amazing Kawhi. Their role guys were better than they are today. But you're right, they've been together four years, They've had one actual season where they were healthy when it mattered, and it was their first and so it is definitely tough to rely on that as your core is aging. As your supporting cast, although they're trying to supplement it in

different ways, is for the most part, regressing. I think that makes a lot of sense. However, I still think that Philly is the prime candidate, just because we have heard throughout this year, even as the Sixers have been thriving that James Harden wants to just go back to Houston, and I do agree with you. Doc is always kind of always a candidate on the chopping book, and I

think is especially if this is another underachieving team. I don't know, we might not see Doc coach in the NBA again, Like how many times can you have these rosters that are supposed to I guess, yeah, that'll be an interesting dynamic to track. But to me, the Hardened thing and the fact that my expectation for the Sixers is that they lose in the second round and I get that that like feels disappointing with their talent level. But there's two teams out east do I think are better.

But I don't know that a second round loss is gonna make James Hardens say, you know what, actually, this is where I really do want to be when maybe he just wants to have fun and you know, be the favorite in a city which he's never gonna be

in Philly. So I think those are the two. I think everybody else you're looking at just a retool Denver could be interesting because I do think they might have to start asking ourselves if Okay, we've definitely done a really good job of building out this cast of role players with like the additions of KCP and Bruce Brown, those were massive, But is our ceiling with Jamal Murray as is our second option high enough? Do we need to, you know, try to find another high level two way

wing to replace an MPJ. I could see questions like that coming up eventually, but I don't know that it's just yet. When Yeah, this is the first really good roster they've had since that bubble year, and this roster is clearly better than that one. So I think it's

Clippers in Philly for sure. You know, It's funny. I was I can't remember exactly which player I was thinking about last night, but I was literally thinking to myself, like, if the Nuggets lost in their defense ended up being the issue again, I wonder if I wonder if Nikola Yokich is the type of player you could get away

with playing alongside an additional rim protector. And I'm not I want to think about it more because it was just kind of a passing idea, but like, look at how Aaron Gordon has fit on that team, basically in

the dunker spot and guarding opposing forwards. Like and I'll just throw out a name that's not really achievable, but just an example, like could a guy like Nyaka kong Wu or even like a Nick Klaxton type of guy, just like a guy that has the ability to switch out onto the perimeter but also guard the rim, who cares about their defense of limitations as long as they can catch and finish dunks. Would that be something that that could help because I don't think offense is the issue.

I think it's just having legitimate rim protection so that you give your perimeter defenders a fighting chance. But yeah, I think I think they're in another example of a retool. The only reason I didn't pick the Sixers is because I still kind of consider that a retool. You know, like if you if you keep Joe Lmbid, and you keep Tyres Maxie and and you keep a bunch of these important players, but you basically flipped Tobias Harris and James Harden in an attempt to bring some additional talent in.

Like I don't necessarily think that that's that's why I ended up going with the Clippers, but I would argue that the Sixers are definitely the most likely to retool, because I mean, you're right, they're gonna lose the Boston in my opinion. I mean, they have a chance to win that series, but they're gonna win. They're most like they'll be. There'll be a significant underdog in that series. They'll probably be at least plus two hundred, if not

a little bit worse. And if they lose that series, like they are going to make some type of significant and it's just a question of what. So I do agree with you there, Carson. Thank you so much for taking time today to come and and talk through some of the stuff. I am looking forward to doing it more frequently as we get through the playoffs. That's all we have for today, guys. I sincerely appreciate you guys supporting the show. Don't forget to check out our other

series previews. We've got at least three more coming this week over the next few days. As always, I appreciate you guys, and I will see you tomorrow. The