Hoops Tonight - NBA play-in predictions, Lebron & Lakers face Pelicans, Warriors take on Kings

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you a heads up at the schedule for today. Later tonight, I'm going with Colin Coward and we're gonna do a deep dive on a bunch of stuff for the NBA playoffs. So you're gonna want to head over to the Colin Coward podcast feed later tonight to see that episode. This episode, I'm just gonna give you, guys, like fifteen minutes my initial reactions on everything that went down in this chaotic day,

final day of the NBA regular season. Not gonna do any sort of deep dives into playoff series previews because we're gonna start that tomorrow. We're gonna do deep dives on the three, six, and four to five matchups that we haven't hit yet, including film. We did already do the the four or five matchup out west, the Clippers MAVs series. We did a series preview with the Nerd Sash guys, so you can find that a little bit further back on the feed. You guys know the joke

four we get started. Subscribe to our brand of YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore json lt so you guys don't miss show announcements as well as the film threads that I do from time to time. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review on that front. And then, last but not least,

keep dropping mail back questions in the YouTube comments. We're gonna be hitting some mailbag during the week coming up. All right, let's talk some basketball. So we had a bunch of blowouts today, but there was one in particular, two in particular that we're funky because the Pelicans and

the Wolves were trying. The Wolves were trying to maintain the two seed, the all important two seed for home court advantage in a series against the Denver Nuggets, right if they were to make it to the second round. And then for the Pelicans, if they won today, they were guaranteed the sixth seed to stay out of the play in tournament. But both of them lose, and starting on Lakers Pelicans, you know, the Lakers have been a

really tough matchup for the Pelicans all season. And I think I've talked a lot about how after you get past Denver, I think there are tiers still like I kind of have like the Pelicans, the Warriors, and the Kings kind of in that bottom tier, and then I have the Lakers, Suns, Mavericks, Clippers, Wolves, and Thunder and that tier right below Denver. Basically, but really all of those teams past Denver have significant flaws. That's why they're

not Denver. And that makes them specifically matchup dependent, meaning if they play a certain type of team, they're gonna look great. If they play a different type of team, they can look bad. And so the Pelicans, for instance, the strength of that team is their perimeter defense. They've got tons of lanky on ball defenders for both the

guard position and the wing position. They force a ton of turnovers, they get out in transition, and they score as a result. They're top ten in turnovers forced as a team, and they're top five in points scored off of turnovers per game. And so when they run into teams like Golden State, who are they depend entirely on a smaller guard perimeter initiator or Sacramento, a team that

the Pelicans are also really dominated against this year. I think they're five and zero against the Pelicans or against the Kings this year. That's a small guard offense initiated team, so they can bother them with length, and then those teams also can occasionally struggle with turnovers, right, So like that's a big part of what allows the Pelicans to

be successful in those particular matchups. Also, specifically with Golden State, they don't really have a ton of interior size to punish the Pelicans, who can be really weak defensively in the front court. Again, Zion Yonis or Zion at the five, or Zion and Larry Nance like that, that's just not good defensive personnel on the front line, and the problem is you go over to the other side of the Lakers, and it's like a perfect matchup for them. Like the

Pelicans are a heavy ball pressure team. They want to get up into the ball handler and make him feel uncomfortable. The best counter for ball pressure is size, because any sort of large ball handler can just turn his back to the guy and protect the basketball as he kind of works his way up the floor. Ball pressure doesn't work on Lebron's too big, it is too strong. He

completely picked the Pelicans apart in that game. And then aggression on the ball and aggression in the passing lanes puts a heavy emphasis on your back line to clean things up, and the Pelicans don't have good back line personnel, and so it literally plays directly into the Lakers' shrinks. All that ball pressure, all that aggression in the passing lanes, Lebron's just handling it and picking you apart and getting

wide open dunks and layups on the back line. How many times did you see Anthony Davis slip behind the screen to defender for a love. How many times did you see Ruey cut along the baseline and get a little dunk underneath the basket as Lebron's picking them apart. There they had a fifty This is crazy. The Lakers had a fifty to twelve points in the paint advantage. So that's a big part of how these matchups tend

to work out. And so even for the Pelicans, like it sucks because now you got to play the Lakers again in that playing game, and we're gonna talk about that in a minute, but like the upside is if you do drop that playing game, you're gonna play either the Kings or the Warriors in that second playing game, and that's a team that more fits into your matchups.

And then also, like here's another thing too happen. If you happen to win that game, you get the one seed Oka See And I would pick okay See to win that series, but Oklahoma City, if you had to pick, if you're a Pelicans fan, if you had to pick between Oka See Minnesota and Denver okay See Denver Minnesota for that first round matchup, you'd much rather play Oka See because that plays more into your strength. Smaller perimeter initiators,

not much interior size to kind of punish that. So if that's kind of like a little bit of a silver lining for the Pelicans on the other end of the floor. I thought, I wanted to just really quickly shout this out. I thought Lebron James obviously dominated this game, but the job he did on Zion Williamson completely shut him down, just completely shut him down, and that shut down the Pelicans offense and that was it. Like there

were some tough shot making in there. Cj made some shots, Brandon Ingram made some shots, her Herb Jones add his catch and shoot three going, but they really didn't have anything going because Lebron shut down their offensive engine. Suns Wolves, I watched the first quarter of this one before we

came on here. The Wolves had a red hot shooting first quarter, went up or excuse me, the Sons had a red hot shooting first quarter, particularly Bradley Beal, but everyone was hitting and they went up by twenty and then they were basically able to stiff arm the Timberwolves the rest of the rest of the way. Bradley Beal was red hot in that first quarter, hitting his pull

up three, hit some huge pull up jump shots. In the game against the Kings the other night, He's playing at an absurdly high level, and so when the dust settles, here's our situation. In the four to five we have Dallas versus Los Angeles Clippers, and we did a series preview on that already, that's on our YouTube feed. Earlier we talked with the Nerd Sash guys. Again. My big thing there is, like, I think that series eventually skews

towards Maxi, Kliba and PJ. Washington in the front court together with Luca and Kyrie and either Derek Jones Junior or someone like Dante exam in at that three spot kind of acting as their main on ball defender for the guard, and I think that series kind of slightly favors Dallas, especially considering some of the health configurations that the Clippers are dealing with. So you can find that full series preview up on YouTube. Suns Timberwolves again, they

shot really well. This is a crazy stat The Sun's got one point seven to six points per catch and shoot jump shot in that game against the Timberwolves. Really really good shooting performance. So I'm excited to dig into the film tomorrow morning and give you guys a more cause I love that we have this game to prep for that series because it's the same team's, same lineups, but they're actually both trying really hard in that game.

So after we sift through some of the shot results stuff, we're gonna be able to find out the shot quality information and find some interesting stuff about about that. So we'll have a I don't know if we'll do it Monday or Tuesday, but in the next two days we'll have a full series preview on Sun's Timberwolves to go over. So our play in situation as of right now is Lakers Pelicans again for starters, I think this one's gonna

be closer the one on Tuesday Night. This is just it's an inherent natural human behavior thing where it's like the Lakers kicked the shit out of them, so they're gonna come in a little more relaxed. The Pelicans are gonna come in not wanting to get humiliated, so they're gonna come in a little bit tougher. Right. It's just it's just gonna be a different type of environment. So I do think it's gonna be closer. I actually have a personal example of this. I'll never forget. I've played

in a money tournament. This was actually not that long ago.

This was last fall when I was dealing with my achilles issue and I came back for this, uh this money term. I had not played basketball and like in like four weeks and I stepped on the floor for this money tournament. And we won every game up until the championship round. But it was double elimination, so we had to beat them twice and they had to But it was weird, like we we kicked the shit out of them in the first game, as this team from Phoenix,

a bunch of these former college players from Phoenix. We kicked the shit out of them in the first game, like literally blitzed them. There was a point, but there was a rule where if you went up thirty in the second half, there was a forfeit, and so we literally went up thirty in the second half and kicked them off the court. We just played an incredibly high level,

destroyed them, won the game. They had to turn around and play another game in the loser's bracket to come back and play us, And then they played us and it was single elimination, so they didn't even give us a second loss, and we just didn't shoot as well. We came out lazy. We weren't defending as well. They came out desperate. They actually were leading in the second half, I think by eleven on us in that game with

the money on the line. Now, we we went on a crazy run at the end of the game on the strength of our defense, and we ended up stealing the money back and we got out of there with the win. But I vividly remember that being like, Wow, we could not have dominated them more than we did in that first game, and then suddenly we were on the ropes in the second game. So I don't want to write the Pelicans off in this game. Any sort of single elimination game can go any direction. Anthony Davis,

this is dealing with some backspasms. I'm not particularly worried about that. Judging by eighty's body language when he was talking to Lebron, I think he was just kind of, you know, being a d But like, that game can go either way. But the bottom line is the Lakers' advantages are just significant. So like, even if that game does turn out close in the mid third quarter, the Lakers are just gonna get better shots down the stretch

of that game, and I expect them to win. So I'm picking the Lakers to beat the Pels, but don't write off the Pells. They obviously have a chance to win that game. Warriors Kings. The Kings are three to

one in that matchup this year. Kings are at home. They're twenty four and seventeen at home this season, But the Warriors are actually better on the road this year. They're twenty five and sixteen on the road this year,

and they've been pretty mediocre at home and so so like. Honestly, I think that kind of plays into the Golden State strengths, especially considering some of the limitations for Sacramento without Malik Monk, Deer and Fox, is really their only perimeter initiate or that can like consistently generate great shots, and the Warriors are just gonna be able to keep a like Tier one perimeter on him all game long, cycling in fresh legs, not having to worry about second side creation as much.

I think that favors Golden State. Also, one last note for Golden State. They are plus fourteen this season with Draymond Green on the floor against the King, so I think that works to their favor. But regardless of who wins that game, if the Pelicans lose to the Lakers, Kings Warriors. Whoever wins is going to have to go play the New Orleans Pelicans in New Orleans. And like I said earlier, they're five and zero against the Kings.

The Warriors beat them early in the season, but the Pelicans have kind of handled them in back to back games both in Golden State. And again, same kind of thing we were talking about earlier. Two teams that rely on a guard to initiate everything. That just plays directly into the strengths of the Pelicans, and the Warriors don't really have the frontline scoring to kind of punish it. So hard to pick against Steph. And again, like the Warriors will be on the road, which I think is

to their favor. I'm like a veteran team like that, you're gonna wanna give them a certain amount of belief in a big time game like that, but it's gonna be they're gonna throw the kitchen sink at Steph and you're gonna need young players or old veterans to try to come through on the other side of that. So hard to kind of like see a path to victory there. But we'll play it by ear when we get to Friday before we make any sort of pick there. But

if I'm a Pelicans fan, you like that matchup. You like that matchup if you lose to the Lakers to deal with either Sacramento or Golden State and then obviously Oklahoma City in the first round for Lakers Nuggets. If the Lakers beat the Pelicans on Tuesday, obviously the Nuggets

are waiting for them. That's less than ideal, but that's way better than having to deal with the nine to ten game and have to play a single elimination game on the road. So even though this is an unfortunate set of matchups for the Lakers, it is the best possible scenario out of all of these other play in scenarios that they could have had to face if they fell down into the nine to ten game. Now here's the thing. Nuggets are the better team. They they should

be favored. Uh. The one thing that's different is this is a very different team than last year's Laker team. Some same personnel, right Delo Austin lebron ad but this is a five out offense that is an offensively focused team, whereas last year's team was a four out offense. More like space and spread, pick and roll, a lot of post up attack, and then they were a defensive focus team. And so that team was really good defensively and could

really struggle offensively. This Lakers team is a really good offensive team that can go through significant defensive struggles. And more or less now, their last two matchups that took place in this calendar year, d Loo is out for the first one, but it was a close game, and then they got out executed late. And then Delo played in the second one and they looked better, right, They had some leads in the first half, but then the Nuggets walked them down and out executed them in the

fourth quarter. So really, with the Nuggets, the Lakers are always right there, and then they lose the last five minutes every single time, and so really the only chance for victory for the Lakers there is to somehow flip that execution script. I will be picking the Nuggets in that series, but whatever percentage chance the Lakers have to

win will come down to their late game execution. Out East, the Bucks hang around for a little bit with Orlando in the first half despite a nightmare shooting performance from Dame, but then they get blown out in the second half. Really, the only reason they hung around in that game is they were able to get to the foul line a lot with some grifty stuff. Then the Knicks almost blew it with turnovers against Chicago, but they did get out

of there with they win. Think they're lucky stars that DeMar DeRozan missed that little one legged runner, because that was a pretty damn good look for him. So our situation is Indiana Milwaukee in the three to six. Milwaukee's won in three in this matchup this year, and by the way, they were trying to win those games. One

of them was an N Season Tournament game. The two that were after the N Season Tournament, those were games where like Dame and Tyree Saliburton have a little personal beef going on, and the Bucks were really trying to win that game those games and they just couldn't. They got one of them, but they have a lot of

trouble with this particular matchup. Why is really simple. This is one of the fastest teams in the league in Indiana, which is a team that was already one of the slowest teams in the league with Giannis and without Yannis. They're just really, really really slow, So it's like a horrible mismatch for them guarding in space, whether that's when they're in rotation, which Tyres Haliburton is an expert at

getting a defense into rotation or pushing the ball in transition. Honestly, the main point of optimism there if you're a Bucks fan is Tyre's Halliburton hasn't really been the same guy that he was since he hurt his hamstring, and so that to me is something that we'll have to see the bear out there. Also, get ready for Tyres and Dame just to get attacked on the a defensive end every single time, because both of them are trocious. Tyree's

had a nightmare game defensively against Cleveland. I was actually watching that game this morning, so that we're gonna again we're gonna do a deep dive into that series. But the main goal there for Milwaukee is like, you just got to somehow find a way to get that to two to two or two to one and hope to God that Jannis can come back at some point and then that he can just put on his cape and carry you to victory there. But that's just a tough

matchup for them Orlando Cleveland. It's two two season series. Orlando won the last one in February in Cleveland. A lot going for Orlando in that series. They have excellent guard defenders, and Cleveland is a heavy pick and roll attack, so if you get good guard defenders there, you can

slow down their pick and roll offense. Orlando is also an excellent offensive rebounding team, and the Cleveland Cavaliers really struggled with the Knicks in the first round series, specifically on the offensive glass, if you remember correctly, that's not a strong point for them. They've done better in the second half of the season, but that's not a strong point for them. So some matchup stuff that favors Orlando.

But Cleveland is actually the more experienced team here and they just got embarrassed last year and learned an important lesson about losing those physical battles. So like that experience advantage I think favors Cleveland. Again. I'm not going to give a pick on any of these series until I dig into the film more Over. The next couple of days playing games, Philly hosting Miami. Winner gets to avoid Boston in the first round, so get ready for that to be a like a knockdown, drag out fight as

both teams are fighting to get away from Boston. That's

gonna be a hell of a game. Philly is one to zero this season in games that embat actually played. It is just a week and a half ago in Miami. Our other playing game is Chicago versus Atlanta. Atlanta just beat Chicago in Chicago in early April. But I'll be picking the loser of Miami and Philly versus either of those teams. Regardless. I do like Chicago better though, so I'm gonna pick Chicago in that matchup, which means we're gonna get Boston versus either Philly or Miami in all likelihood.

Obviously you can't write off Chicago or Atlanta completely, but we're gonna get a pretty fun first round series there against Boston, which will just kind of keep things more interesting out east, considering the fact that there's a high probability in my opinion, that Boston just basically destroys everyone. So hopefully it'll just those teams will be able to

at least keep it interesting. All right, guys. As I said, if you're looking for a series preview on Clippers maps, already on the feed the other three six four to five matchups we're gonna hit on Monday and Tuesday during the day we've got We've also got Colin Coward later tonight, so make sure you keep an eye on the Herd podcast feed the Colin Cower heard podcast speed for that show later on tonight. As always, I appreciate you guys, and I'll see you in a couple of hours. The

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