Hoops Tonight - NBA Play-In Picks: Will LeBron James & Lakers beat Timberwolves? Hawks-Heat preview

those are guys who missed it. Last night, we went forty plus minutes with Colin Coward talking some big picture NBA Playoff topics. Today we're gonna be covering the play in games, previewing the seven eight matchups in both conferences, So we're gonna talk Lakers, Wolves, and Heat Hawks, and then brief mentions of the back end of the play

in tournament. And then throughout this week, pay close attention to the feeds because I'm gonna be really seeing eight different videos breaking down all eight of the NBA Playoff series on every level, the schematics, the xs and o's, and the matchups and everything that I expect to see on both ends of the floor in those series, just like we did last year. And then Tuesday night we'll be doing an instant reaction video after the two seven

eight games. Thursday, we're gonna be doing a playoff preview episode where we talk about major big picture predictions and storylines with Carson. And then starting Saturday, every single night that there are games, we will be covering and breaking down those games, and it'll be a similar cadence to

last year. At the start of the video will do instant reactions, and then the second half of the video will do deep dives into my film sessions from the morning after the games, which are where I get to learn the most about some of the schematic things that are taking place. So this is that crazy time of year. For the next couple of months, we're gonna have videos coming out, sometimes multiple almost every single day, So keep

an eye on the feeds. You guys know the joke before we get started it subscribed to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements, and for whatever reason you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube. You can always find these videos wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight, All right, let's talk some basketball. So Wolves Lakers on Tuesday. A

couple quick notes on the game. The Lakers are a seven and a half point favorite right now on FanDuel. Minnesota won the season series two to one. However, the only Lakers win was the only time post deadline that both Lebron James and Anthony Davis played a little over a week ago, a double digit win on the road

in Minnesota. And we found out this morning that not only will Jaden McDaniels be out from the bizarre wall punching situation, but Rudy Gobert will also be suspended for just this game, expecting him to return should they lose in the second playing game or if they win in the seven two series, but he will not be playing on Tuesday night in Los Angeles did not even travel

with the team. Jaden McDaniels is a massive loss. He's one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, looking to rest that title away from the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Jason Tatum and some of the guys that talked about last season, and he's been doing a number

on Stars all season long. This is crazy. In his last matchup with Steph, he held him to twenty points on twenty three shots, in his last matchup with Kad he held him to sixteen points on eighteen shots, and in his last matchup with Lebron he held him to eighteen points on nineteen shots. So in his last three matchups with Steph, Katie and Lebron he held him to fifty four points on sixty shots, which is just insane

defensive effectiveness from Jade McDaniels. So taking him out of the picture and replacing him with someone like Torrian Prince, who's a good basketball player, but Torrian Prince is a guy that Lebron James has consistently dominated throughout his career. So switching from McDaniels on Lebron to Torrian Prince on Lebron, that's a huge swing factor in a game like this. And then on the go bare front again like this

is this is complicated. Gobert is a good player. As much as we like to make fun of him, Gobert

is a good player. And obviously the Wolves are a better team when Rudy Gobert is out there, But I do think that the Lakers are a much better team overall, and the Wolves need to create a weird environment, any different type of game to win this game, and so their best bet, in my opinion, is an unorthodox type of game where you're doing a lot more switching, you're playing a lot more five out offensively, in generating an environment where Aunt can be very comfortable because their best

chance to win is just an otherworldly effort from Anthony Edwards. So even though in like a larger sample size, I think Gobert kind of makes you a better team in this matchup, obviously with what he brings to the table defensively and on the offensive glass and things along those lines. For a one game sample against a much better team, I actually think Gobert being out kind of creates the type of weird environment that could cultivate an upset in

a single game sample. But Lakers are the better team. They're much better defensive team, and they're much better offensive team post headline, they have better superstars, they're at home, and then without Jade McDaniels and nas Read and Go Bear, they're just not very deep. They're not deep enough to hang with this team. And most importantly, Lebron James and Anthony Davis just have more big game experience. Like, yeah, I know the Wolves have played in this type of

seven eight game and won before. They won last year, but the Lakers did the same thing the year before, and they've just Lebron James and Anthony Davis in their career have just played in so many monumentally important, important games. They're going to be the more confident, more talented, and simply better team. So having Rudy Gobert out of the picture, in my opinion, kind of creates that bizarre set of circumstances that gives them actually a better chance for that

miracle type of game. And Anthony Edwards, I mean, I thought I was so incredibly impressed by him last night. I've always said that I view Anthony Edwards as like guard Lebron, And the main reason that I say that they're not the same type of player. Obviously, and Lebron specifically as a playmaker, is just on a completely different stratosphere than Anthony Edwards will ever be able to get in my opinion, But where I see similarities is the way that at their position, their physical tools can be

such a problem. There are a lot of athletic players in the league. There are not a lot of athletic players in the league that are as well rounded an athlete as Anthony Edwards in terms of overall size and strength, low center of gravity, lateral quickness, vertical pop all of the different things that you absolutely have to have to be a supreme athlete. Aunt Edwards is a ten out of ten on all of those And what that means is he's able to impact the game in a way

that goes beyond what his shot result is. And I thought last night was a perfect example of that. Couldn't make a jumpshot to save his life. He was turning the basketball over. But through sheer force of will and athleticism. And by the way, Anthony Edwards is one of the best competitors that we have in the league right now, just in terms of his overall attitude and approach to the game. Just through sheer competitive will in athletic tools,

he stole that game. Brandon Ingram was amazing in that game from the same point of polish, but Anthony Edwards won it with just sheer force of will and athleticism. That's been the thing that I always see get lost when we're evaluating players. You watch a guy like Lebron

and you watch a guy like Kevin Durant. Kevin Durant's undeniably more polished, but Lebron James has had a more successful career because he has a more imposing competitive force of will, and he's just a much better all around athlete when you combine all of his attributes, and those sorts of things just come together in this stage in a way that's more reliable, in my opinion, than your

ability to hit a pull up jump shot. A nightmare game for Anthony Edwards, but he made monumental defensive plays. He had thirteen rebounds, four steals, four blocks. One of the most incredible defensive plays I've ever seen a position a play where he's completely out of position and CJ. McCollum has a straight line drive going to the rim, goes up with two hands to dunk it. Anthony Edwards

comes flying in out of the corner. His head is above the rim as he swats CJ out of existence and goes the other way, turns it over, but gets

to the ball back and gets an and one. Again, just his overwhelming athletic gifts or what allow him to be impactful on a night and night out basis in a way that guys that are incredibly dependent on their skill set in how they can be a little bit more inconsistent and like again, I think he went eight for twenty one from the field in this game, and a big part of that was the fact that he was able to supplement his jump shooting by getting to

the rim. I think he was three for eleven on jump shots, but he was able to get to the rim and make some shots, and he made some big shots down the stretch of this game. He is the key to them being able to win a one game sample against a much better team like the Lakers. Have him feel comfortable from the opening tip, have him feel like he's got more space to get to the rim when he starts generating drill penetration, the on ball defender will give him more space. That makes it so that

his pull up threes are a higher quality shot. Again, it just is a better kind of like set of circumstances for Anthony Words to have a thirty five forty point night, which is what they're going to need to beat the Lakers, so that that's just basically a very long way of me saying I actually think Rudy Gobert being out kind of gives Minnesota a better chance in this one game, albeit you desperately need him. Should you win or should you get the eight seed for a

playoff series? From a matchup perspective, judging from what we learned in that game a couple of Sundays ago or a couple of Fridays ago, I should say we know that with Gobert being off the floor, the Lakers are gonna try to put Anthony Davis on Kyle Anderson. It's gonna be their best bet to try to keep him around the basket to spite Rudy Gobert being off the floor. He still will be able to help there, but it's never quite the same as when a guy's in the

dunker spot or rolling to the basket. It's easier to linger around the rim there than it is if he's kind of relocating around the perimeter, even if you're not guarding him on his spot up attempts, and Kyle Anderson can drive that close out and make little pop shots and floaters in the lane, so like it's a better it's a better spacing concept for Minnesota. But I do think Anthony Davis will guard Kyle Anderson whenever he's on the floor and linger around the basket as much as possible.

I think they'll put Lebron James on Carl Towns and have him primarily just worry about him at the three point line. We noticed in the second half of their game against the Timberwolves a few fridays ago that they're gonna put Jared Vanderbilt on Anthony Edwards as much as they can, So wouldn't be surprised if you see Jared Vanderbilt on Aunt from the opening tip, and then I expect Austin Reeves to be guarding Mike Conley, and then Dennis Roder when he checks in the game, will guard

Mike Conley. And I think they'll tuck DeAngelo Russell away on Torrian Prince. So I think we saw some of those matchups bear out in that second half against the Wolves. Again, it's always a little different because that was a bench group in that game with go bear off the floor, whereas this will be a starting group. But I think that's kind of the way that we're gonna see this shakedown. On the other end of the floor, I think you'll see Torrian Prince on Lebron James with some Kyle Anderson

on Lebron James. But my guess is they'll put Kyle Anderson on Jared vander Built and try to get him as the guy who's going to be the hard double guy. Because in their last matchup, if you guys remember Anthony Edwards or Anthony Davis, I should say just barbecued both go bear in Carl Towns, but especially Carl Towns in single coverage in the fourth quarter in the post, just

regular post moves just was killing him. And we've also seen in four of Anthony Davis's last eight games him finished with less than twenty points because of teams aggressively doubling him and him struggling to handle that. So in this game, I expect the Timberwolves to hard double Anthony Davis as much as possible and do some doubling of

Lebron as well. So from a matchup standpoint, you love to double team with length right because the way you beat double teams is by making kickout passes to shooters, specifically the right shooter that can beat the double team right, and if you pressure the ball that usually what they'll do on a double team is the guy they'll leave open is in the week side corner. And so the

more you pressure the ball, that's a long pass. And if that has to be a looping pass over the top as opposed to a straight line pass in his chest, that buys you time to rotate out to the shooter. So doubling with a guy like Kyle Anderson, who's got super long arms in his excellent at getting deflections, that's the best way to try to make Lebron James and

Anthony Davis feel uncomfortable in those double teams. So I think you'll put I think they'll end up putting Kyle Anderson on Jared Vanderbilt and using him as the aggressive double team guy. You'll see Torrian Prince on Lebron James, which is a matchup I really like for Lebron, And you'll see Carl Town's on Anthony Davis, which is a

matchup I really like for Anthony Davis. So a big storyline in this game is going to be the ability for the Lakers to handle double teams, particularly of Anthony Davis. I expect Lebron James to handle it well. He has his entire career. Honestly, That's gonna be one of the biggest stories for the Lakers in this entire postseason run.

It's how well Anthony Davis manages double teams. There's been a lot of thirty five and seventeen type games here down the stretch of the season, and then there's been a lot of like eighteen and eleven type games, And usually the difference between those two types of games is the way teams aggressively double team Anthony Davis in his inability to pass them out of those double teams to earn him single coverage opportunities. So that's the way I

see the matchups breaking down. I think you'll see Anthony Edwards start on D'Angelo Russell he did in the last game, and then I think you'll see Mike Conley start on Austin Reeves again. The goal for the Lakers in this game is going to be to keep Anthony Davis by the rim as much as possible. Their best bet there is Kyle Anderson that just by virtue of having Anthony Davis around the rim, it's gonna make things so much

harder for Minnesota to score the basketball. That's one of the reasons why this is going to be such a tough game for the Wolves to win. I expect the Lakers to win relatively comfortably. I think they'll be up by about ten points throughout the game. The Lakers are not a team that likes to put teams away. Unfortunately, It's kind of just part of the psyche of Lebron

James and Anthony Davis. As soon as they start to build a little bit of a margin, they relax, and unfortunately, teams just kind of linger around and then they put them away. And my guests, as the Lakers end up winning this game by somewhere between like Evan in thirteen points, you know, like hovering around ten, give or takers shot here or there. But again, they're best chance, Minnesota's best

chance to win this game. It's just an otherworldly game from Anthony Edwards, red hot shooting from Carl Towns, Like, I think you need those two to combine for about sixty in order to have a chance to win this game. But it's certainly there, it's certainly on the table. That's always the case in a single game when you have a talent the likes of Anthony Edwards. But I do like this matchup for the Lakers. I think they'll be

able to keep a d around the paint. I think Lebron James working against Tori and Prince demanding double teams is going to generate high quality shots all game. My guess is they double team Anthony Davis and he struggles with it again like he usually does. They end up running the offense through Lebron James in the post. That's what I expect to happen in this game. Again, single game, anything can happen, but I think the Lakers are going to win. All right. Let's move on to Atlanta Miami,

So a couple game notes. Miami's a five point favorite. Miami won the season series three to one. To my knowledge, I tried to look up some injury reports today, but I think everyone is playing for both teams in this game. Kyle Lowry has been back in the lineup for the better part of a month now, and he's actually been helping them a lot as a playmaker, and he's been one of the plus minus heroes of the team since

he returned. But he's been coming off the bench. If you look at the way that Miami has been building their rotation out, you can bet it's like a lot of teams that are in these middling areas of the standings, you know, the middle ten teams of the league, they don't really have a surefire five guys that they like

to go to. Even the Lakers, like, yeah, it's de Low, and it's Austin, and it's Lebron Vanderbilt and a d But it's like on any given night, it might be Dennis instead of Delo or Dennis instead of Austin, and it might be Ruey instead of Jared, it might instead of Jared Vanderbilt, depending on what they need from that specific lineup in Miami's very similar. It's gonna be Bam, it's gonna be Jimmy, it's gonna be Tyler Harrow, and

then you're probably gonna see Caleb Martin. He's been taking a lot of their primary point of attack assignments as of late. I expect him to guard Trey Young from the opening tip in this game, and then that fifth guy. It's just gonna be a question. It's just gonna be a question of what they need. Sometimes it's gonna be Max Struce when they're doing more switching. If Trey Young is trying to attack a lot in ISO, I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Gabe Vincent just because

he's a little quicker. And then I wouldn't be surprised if you see Kyle Lowry in there in days where he's feeling well physically. It's it's gonna oscillate around. But I think when the chips are down, when they need stops in this game, down the stretch of games, it's gonna be Bam, it's gonna be Jimmy, it's gonna be Tyler Harrow, it's gonna be Caleb Martin, and then my guests will be they'll go down with Max Struce in

a more switching approach. But we'll see they have been going back and forth a lot in that specific situation. Their last matchup with Atlanta, they were still playing Oladipo down the stretch and he's kind of fallen out of the crunch time rotation. So I don't expect that to be the case. They cat Caleb Martin Johnte Murray a little bit more because Victor Oladipo is out there, but then down the stretch they actually switch that in Caleb Martin guarded Trey. That's why I expect him to guard

Trey in this game. Dejontay Murray's an interesting matchup because he's got a little bit of a higher release point than a lot of than a lot of the other like smaller guards in the league. He gets down to that fifteen footmark and he kind of pushes his release up higher and he can shoot over the top of teams.

And so I wouldn't be surprised if over the course of that game, if they have to make an adjustment and they have to move Caleb Martin because he's taller and a better athlete, move him over to de Jontay Murray and have to find somebody to guard Trey Young. That's gonna be the trick. Now we know the way that they're going to guard these Atlanta Hawks high screens, and you know it's high pick and roll with Trey, but it's a lot of dribble handoffs and other off

ball actions for dejon Day Murray. They like to aggressively switch, so it's like it's the difference between an aggressive switch and a passive switches. It almost looks like a blitz right Like, It's not like, Okay, I'm guarding that guy now. Bam wills almost close out, like hard close out to the perimeter as Trey or dejan is coming off that screen,

which usually forces them into a retreat dribble. The advantage there is if you can force those guards into a retreat dribble so that they can reassess the switch, that gives you an opportunity to set your help defense in the background. Now. In their previous matchups this season, de Jontay Murray's actually had a good amount of success attacking Bam at a bio in those switches. He can beat him off the dribble. He can knock down those pull up jumpers over the top. Dejean Ty Murray's actually had

some success there. Trey Young Miami has consistently had his number. He's shooting thirty six percent from the field against them this season, averaging over five turnovers per game. He usually struggles with those aggressive switches from bad But I think I think you're gonna see a lot of a lot

of switching. I think you're gonna see a little bit more max strus because of the switching and his ability with his lower center of gravity and his big, strong size to box out guys like DeAndre Hunter, John Collins, and and Clint Capella. The more interesting thing to me is on the other end of the floor, how at Lanta is gonna guard Miami because we can count on we can count on Miami to figure it out. They've

given Trey Young issues. Like we talked about, Spoilster is gonna mix in zone with his aggressive pick and roll coverages, right, so you're gonna see, You're gonna see like like they ran I think nine possessions the zone the last time they played the Hawks, and the Hawks actually played pretty well against their zone in that game. But it's more it's more of a rhythm disruptor. You just throw it in every once in a while and it just kind of gets you out of your groove that you're in.

And with those aggressive switches, they kind of take them out of their pick and roll game and turn them into an ISO team. I think Miami's gonna have some success obviously with a team like Atlanta. They have so much offensive firepower that if they shoot well, obviously they can win. It's not that they don't have a chance. In fact, I think Atlanta has a much better chance

against Miami than Minnesota does against the Lakers. I don't think that's much of a hot take, but I do think that it's advantaged Miami on the defensive end of the floor against Atlanta on the other end of the floor. The way that they guarded Miami last time is they tucked Trey Young on Tyler Harrow, which is kind of an interesting choice, right. They put DeAndre Hunter on Jimmy Butler, and they put Clint Capella on bam at a bio and they run drop coverage and they had a lot

of success getting Jimmy Butler down in this. In the last matchup against each other, the game was actually tied at one thirteen in the middle of the fourth quarter, and it was Jimmy pick and roll kick for three, Jimmy pick and roll kick for three, Jimmy pick and roll pull up jump shot, and the game was basically over.

So they just spammed pick and roll and Lana was hesitant to switch, which Will allowed Jimmy Butler to get downhill against Clint Capella dropping way far back in his drop and then he's just making decisions because as Jimmy gets downhill like that, it's a natural inclination of the defense to kind of suck in, and that's when those shooting opportunities are there. As is the case with Miami a lot, their spot up shooting kind of dictates their outcomes.

That if guys like Caleb Martin and Max Struce and Tyler Harre are hitting their threes, they can look like a dynamic offensive team behind the shot creation of Jimmy Butler. But you know, those guys can run hot and cold sometimes and that can be an issue for them. I would say the line feels right to me. Miami minus five feels right again. Atlanta has enough offensive firepower that if they shoot well, they can win. But Miami has

the best player and Jimmy Butler. They have the best coach, buy a Mile and Eric Spoelstra, and I it's not the Quinn Snyder thing. I want to I want to see what he looks like when they overturn the roster this summer and they make some changes and have a whole training camp to institute stuff. I believe in Quinn Snyder and his in the way that he's optimizing these guys offensively by prioritizing spacing. But in this matchup, you're

taking Eric Spolstra. He's gonna be better with the schematics, the adjustments, and understand how to win this one game sample size. Miami's also at home, and they fared well in this matchup for a while now, and so I think Miami will feel the most confident. So again, Atlanta has a better chance to win this game than say Minnesota does against the Lakers. But I think Miami makes sense. This is a five point favorite, and I believe they will win on their way to a series against the

Boston Celtics. I'm not gonna dive too deep into the lower level playing games again, it's really this simple. I have to do eight series previews this week, so I've got a lot of film to watch, and I'm not gonna waste a bunch of time watching Thunder and Pelicans film when I don't think they're gonna factor in a big way into this playoff run. Right Like, I think I'd rather watch lots of footage on you know, Nick's calves for instance. Right, So, but my best guess is

I think Toronto beat Chicago. Chicago's defense is awesome, but They're a little bit undersized on the perimeter. They're a perimeter defense, ball contained defense. In Toronto's a team that likes to ram it down your throat with big forwards to target your smaller guards. So I like that matchup for them in Toronto's at home, I do think Atlanta beats Toronto, though they've had their number all seasons, so I think we'll end up seeing Atlanta be that eight

seed and then out West. I think the Pelicans win comfortably against okay See, they're good at home. They're just okay see, is another you know team that has a

lot of ball handling and shooting. Like it's kind of like this shot creation contest right between Josh Giddy, Jalen Williams and Shay Gilders, Alexander versus Brandon Ingram CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy, right, And I just give a slight nod right now, especially with the length and athleticism they have defensively, I give a slight nod to the Pelicans, especially at home. Not to mention the Jonas valanciness element.

He's gonna be able to generate some advantages inside against jay Lynn Williams he's gonna be the biggest player on the floor by a mile in this game. So I think the Pelicans went comfortably against Okay see. And then it's another coin flip game against Minnesota, and I think Aunt actually might be better than Ingram right now. Again, I know it sounds crazy to say, but especially in this type of game where the physicality and athleticism plays a bigger role, I actually like Aunt as the best

player on the floor in this game. So I just give a slight nod to Minnesota. So my best guest right now, as I think the Lakers are gonna be the seventh seed in the West and the Wolves will be the eighth seed, and the Hawks will be the eight seed in the East, and the Heat will be the sevens. But again, these are single game samples. In a playoff series, you have much more time for your advantages to bear out in a single game. It could be foul trouble, it could be shot making, it could

be officiating. There's so many different things that can go one way or another to swing a game, so anything can happen. But those are just my best guests for right now. All right, guys, that's all I have for today, I remember to keep an eye on the feeds so that you guys can see all the season previews. Don't forget to check out our series previews. Don't forget to

check out my show with Colin from last night. Thursday night, we'll be going with Carson Tuesday night, Instant reaction to the seven eight games, and then we're into the playoff grind starting Saturday. As always, I appreciate you guys. I'm excited for this run. It's going to be a good time and I will see you guys tomorrow. The volume