Hoops Tonight - NBA Draft Predictions: Bronny James to Lakers? Hawks decision at #1 w/ Sam Vecenie - podcast episode cover

Hoops Tonight - NBA Draft Predictions: Bronny James to Lakers? Hawks decision at #1 w/ Sam Vecenie

Jun 26, 20241 hr 1 min
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Episode description

Jason Timpf is joined by Sam Vecenie of The Athletic to break down the biggest questions ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft. Are the Atlanta Hawks more likely to draft Zaccharie Risacher or Alex Sarr with the first overall pick? Later, the guys share their thoughts on the other top prospects including Reed Sheppard, Donovan Clingan, and Dalton Knecht. And of course...will Bronny James team up with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers?

5:30 - Why Sam has NO Tier 1 or Tier 2 players

10:00 - Zaccharie Risacher vs. Alex Sarr for #1

25:00 - What will Wizards do with 2nd pick?

27:00 - What is Alex Sarr's potential?

30:00 - Reed Sheppard

36:30 - Stephon Castle

43:00 - Spurs dream draft

44:00 - Where Donovan Clingan goes

52:00 - Cody Williams

55:00 - Devin Carter

58:00 - Dalton Knecht 

01:00:00 - Is Bronny James a realistic NBA player?

01:11:00  - Check out Sam's work!

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)

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Transcript

Speaker 1

The volume.

Speaker 2

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are having a great week. Well, we are going to be diving headlong into the NBA Draft today, which is tomorrow. It feels like the NBA Finals were yesterday and here we are. The draft has already to take place. I can think of nobody better than mister Sam Besini, my good friend, somebody that I trust as a basketball mind more than most. But I know I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna come off as pandering here, but I think he's the very best at covering the draft as well.

In addition to diving into a year round, he also gets the players themselves on his show with him. They go over tape together, he picks their brain. It's just it's an incredible Uh, it's just an incredible process that he goes through to properly cover the draft. If you guys haven't checked out his draft guid yet, you have to. If you're not following or subscribing to his YouTube channel yet, you need to. But Sam, I'm really excited to get into this draft today.

Speaker 1

I was telling you.

Speaker 2

Before we we uh, before we started the show, that this is one of the hardest shows that I've ever had to prep for, just simply because I don't look at the draft at all during the regular season, and that I try to cram it all in in a week. But also there's just so much up in the air this year. It feels like nobody knows where anybody's going. And obviously you're a lot more well connected, and it seems like from what you've told me that it's been

like that for you as well. So why don't you just tell us a little bit about this draft and what it's been like covering it this season.

Speaker 3

Yeah, thanks for having me. I mean, the big thing that I would take away from this is that because the talent is so flat at the top, right, there's no Victor wembin Yama. There's no like everyone knew Kay Cottingham was going number one the year that Kay Countingham went number one. There's nos that I'm Williamson. I would argue, there's not even really like a Markel Foltz where people felt like, you know, longso Ball and Jason Tatum in that year were pretty similar at least, if not, you know,

in the same tier to Markelle Fultz. It was very clear that Markell was gonna go number one that year. I would argue, there's not even you know, for instance, I do tiers in the draft guide every year, and I don't have a Tier one or a Tier two player. Tier one guys are like guys I expect to be all NBA players.

Speaker 2

Tier two I noticed that I was confused. I was like, am I missing pages? Like what's going on here?

Speaker 1

Yeah?

Speaker 3

So Tier two is guys that, like I think, you know, very realistic chance that they're all stars. It's like you're like, I thought chet holmme Grid fit into that bucket. I thought Paula Banco fitted into that bucket really high level. I think both those guys are probably gonna exceed that at the end of the day. But you know, I had some questions about them in general, and I felt a little bit more confident putting them into the All Star bucket as opposed to like the definite like you know,

top fifteen guys in the league, like All NBA bucket. Right, I had Victor in that bucket last year. I don't have anybody in those two tiers. And I'm not like Stingy with those grades. In the four years I've been doing the draft guy prior to this one, I've ranked sixteen players with a Tier one or Tier two grade. Look, sometimes it works out and you have Brandon Miller with a Tier two grade. Other times it doesn't work out,

and you have James Wiseman with a Tier two grade. Right, And I think I had Tier two's on like Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball year. You know, I think I had you know, I think Evan Mobley was two. I think Jalen Green was two. I think Sugs was the two, and I still believe in basically all those guys in some respects. But yeah, I would say that this class does not have a guy that I look at and I can confidently project all star like an all star future onto them undeniably just by the law of large

numbers in the way that development works. Once these kids get into situations, guys will emerge as all stars, no questions asked. But when trying to find like a middle ground in terms of that evaluation and like an expected outcome, I don't know that I can like confidently tell you this specific player like I have Alex R at number one. I don't know if I can tell you that Alex aar I am expecting a number one level of production or an all star quality level production for him. I

think he has a chance to be that player. I think there are certainly outcomes that he can hit where he becomes that player. But I don't know that I can sit here and tell you for sure that you know that that's what I expect of him either, And that goes all the way through my top group of prospects, So you know there will be all stars that come

out of this class. It's just going to be really hard to identify them, and I think that they're going to be maybe even a little bit more development based than what we've seen in previous years.

Speaker 2

Yeah, that makes sense. So let me put you on the spot here. So if you had Jalen Green as a Tier two prospect, does that mean that if Jalen Green was coming out of this class you would have had him number one.

Speaker 3

I'm not even close.

Speaker 2

That's super fascinating to me, and I'm not surprised because like, obviously I went through all these guys today and like Alex Sar obviously you had at number one. That was a guy we're going to talk about Zachary Rosasche here in a minute, because he's actually the Veguas favorite to go number one, which I really want to dive into here in a minute. But as I was watching Alex,

I'm like, good player, really good defensive player. Doesn't feel like a number one overall pick to me, you know, And so like that makes sense to me, and like and to your point, like just that kind of that kind of tier that you're talking about, that tier too, And I by the way, Chet and Pawlow like they both have exceeded expectations. I would say, when they got to the NBA, they both have been better faster than we expected. And that's I think that those sound properly

rated to me. So like I wanted you had mentioned to me before we started too, that you wanted to that you were expecting a lot of draft d a trades or things surrounding the draft that involved trades. Let's get to that as we kind of go through the picks. So I want to start with number one here. So according to DraftKings, Zachary Versace is the heavy favorite.

Speaker 1

To go number one overall.

Speaker 2

As I was watching his film, I'm like, interesting, kind of like weak side shooters, super confident, can drive, close out some interesting stuff on the ball. I thought about what you talked about with me when you came on during the finals, and we talked about like the two things that you look for in in uh like in terms of success for modern NBA basketball with spacing and

then groundcoverage on defense. And I thought about his length, and he's pretty mobile, and he's pretty good on the weak side, like jumping passing lanes and being a help defender. But again, I I don't even see the angle there over Alex sar So, like, what is what is? What do you think is driving the intel that Zachary's gonna go potentially number one overall? Do you expect that to happen? And if so, is it gonna go? Do you think he'll end up in Atlanta or do you think there'll be a trade there?

Speaker 3

Yeah, So the easiest way for me to talk about this right now is first and foremost, I don't feel wildly confident about anything with Atlanta. And the big key with Atlanta is there are just a number of voices in that room. From what I understand, Quinn Sneider is

certainly a voice in that room. They convinced him to come, you know, out of after he left Utah, and like they didn't convince him to come just by telling him, you know, you're the coach and that's it, right, Like he has a voice in the room whenever it comes down to crunch time. Landry Fields certainly is a voice, you know there is there are differing degrees to which you will hear from folks that ownership and uh, you know, Tony Wrestler and his son Nick Wrestler will have a

voice when it comes to it on draft night. So that creates a lot of differing incentives. It creates a lot of very challenging things for opposing teams. Is they're trying to get a plan for what Atlanta's trying to do to parse through. I would say that right now, look, I have the Nachary Risichet marked or mocked right now at number one. They I know that Atlanta has certainly reached out to a few different teams looking at potentially moving down the board. They're trying to figure out is

there a way we can trade down? Which makes sense? Right, They're looking at a number of different options on a board where one through five or so looks pretty steady. Right in terms of talent. There are teams that have preferences in that group. There are teams that maybe have one of those guys a little bit ahead of the other. But it makes sense why you would try and trade down when all of the talent is relatively flat. The problem that I understand the running into is like who's

gonna move up in that case? Who's trying to you know, get to Zachary versus Chet When you know, I kind of just outlined that I don't think that his likely outcome is necessarily like all star. I think he's going to be a really good starter. I think he's gonna be a guy that you know, like you said, like great week side shooter. I think he can attack closeouts, But the problem is, I think he struggles to maintain

advantages after attacking. He's very skinny right now, So it's a big hope that he can continue to develop his frame and really get stronger. Despite being like kind of thinly framed, Like he doesn't have a lot like wide shoulders. He's actually like quite skinny in terms of his shoulders. So like the worry there is how does the frame develop? Is he going to be able to actually maintain the

advantages that he creates in space? In traffic? I think that he generally has struggled a little bit with contact this season. If you look at him when he's like driving to the ram and trying to finish, if he gets bumped, I think that like he kind of loses control of the ball, loses control of his touch a

little bit. So I I have him at number five. Personally, I really like him, and again I have him in this top group, So anybody in that top group of players, like I'm not going to crush Atlanta for taking them, because I just don't see it as all that different. But yeah, like you mentioned Dlex Sar Like, I just think Sara is bigger, covers ground a little bit better.

He's definitely a worse shooter than what risus Schet is, but I think that if you look at where the league is going, like these dribble pass shoot bigs are kind of worth their weight in gold, and I would just rather take in informed. This NBA draft is all about. This is the easiest way for me to explain it. This NBA draft is all about informed bets.

Speaker 1

Right.

Speaker 3

You're trying to think about this in terms of bets, not in terms of you know what this guy is going to be. I am trying to figure out who are my best bets in terms of the intersection of upside and like relatively high floor. I have Stephan Castle ahead of Zachary rissa Chet. I think Steph's upside is higher than risus Chet because I think Steph can pass,

I think that he can play through traffic. I think he's a better defender than risus Chet, But undeniably his floor is lower than risus Chet's because risus Chet can shoot it, and Steph Castle right now struggles to shoot it. If Steph Castle continues to struggle to shoot it, it's gonna be a problem for Steph. But if the shot comes to, the informed bet that you're taking would be that Steph Cassel is probably going to become an All

star if the shot comes together in time. So thinking about this draft almost more in terms of like bets and like informed bets, And I don't like love it seems like dehumanizing on some level, and I don't necessarily love framing it that way, but that's the way that you almost have to think about it in terms of like investing in this class in some way.

Speaker 2

Well, in the ruthless world of sports, that is how it works, unfortunately, But I agree with you it is kind of it is kind of funky talking about it. I always feel like it's weird being like a super micromanergy about prospects too. You're like, oh, this guy struggles with this, It's like, but he's awesome about all this other stuff. It's kind of just the weird nature of the job in so many different ways. Totally, Yeah, I'm confused. So, like,

if Atlanta were to take Risus Shay. How does that clash with Jalen Johnson, because don't they kind of are they viewing him more as a threat.

Speaker 3

I think it's actually a good fit with Jalen Johnson for what it's worth, because Jalen, I think, is probably gonna be best as like a crash and like bang athlete who runs up and down the court and transition and is physical and is you know, driving. I think Versus Shay can like help space the floor and then

you can have guys at the three and four. Jalen Johnson's like this immense athlete who's you know, driving and trying to pass and playmake and do everything that we've seen him do in his breakout season this year in his third year, Versus Shay can be the you know, kind of off wing who can really knock down shots and be able to like have like high level defensive capabilities on the weak side, uh, taking up a bunch of space with his frame and with his length. And

Jalen Johnson as well is a pretty good defender. So I actually really like that fit. I do like have questions about what it would mean for somebody like DeAndre Hunter. Do they try and just move you on Hunter the summer at the end of the day. Uh, I have some questions about, you know, what it would mean for

their guard room just in general. That's another piece of this Atlanta conversation is nobody knows with the rest of the well straight up, just with the rest of their roster, Like, you know, how are they going to get under the tax Like are they gonna trade Clint Capella? Are they going to try and do it via the potential to John sat Murray trade like it? You know, will they consider moving Trey Young if someone tried to blow them

away with an offer. There's just so many different variables with the Hawks right now, and that's what makes rejecting their pick hard. Folks around the league that I talked to do tend to say risset Chet's name more than others.

But Donovan Klingon went in there, had a great workout with Atlanta from what I understand, really, you know, fits a lot of what Quinn Snyder particularly is looking for from the center position, having come from Utah, having had Rudy Gobert, who was this unbelievable screener, unbelievable drop coverage

rim protector big. I think that Quinn Snyder would do a lot of really great things with Donovan Klingen, But Donovan Klingon would not be a particularly sexy number one overall pick, right as I'm sure you watched when you saw Klingon, you know, really good player, like gonna be an awesome player if he snuck like an All Star Berth kind of like how Jarrett Allen did that year in Cleveland, would by no means surprise me. But I would say he projects as like a top ten starting

center in the league. And that's just like not something teams are wildly enthusiastic about taking it. One.

Speaker 2

Yeah, what I had mentioned the fit, I was more meaning on the defensive end. Do you think Jalen Johnson's good enough on the ball, Because I always get worried about the as someone who rooted for the Lakers last year, When you have a three and four that both suck on the ball, it could be a little bit of an issue. And so that's more what I look at, like, I almost want one of my three or four to be a guy that can like fight over screens and chase a shooter around.

Speaker 1

Or chase a ball handler around.

Speaker 4

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Speaker 2

What I like about the Alex sarfit is like it makes sense, Like you think of Jalen Johnson and Alex Sar as kind of like this foundational kind of front court. Obviously, right now, Alex Sar is not good enough offensively to play the four.

Speaker 1

Actually, one of the.

Speaker 2

Things that I'm one of the reasons why I'm higher on Alex, even though the shooting is obviously an issue. Well, first of all, his shooting has been making some improvements. It seems like year over year the form isn't awful.

Speaker 1

It's not.

Speaker 2

It doesn't cause me any major concerns. And the main thing is is he's really comfortable with dribble handoffs, which makes me think, like, especially if Quinn Snyder were to kind of continue to kind of like build out more of a five out type of system where there's more ball in player movement and Jalen Johnson's coming off of dribble handoffs out of you know, Chicago action out of the corner and stuff like that. Like, I just imagine

Alex Sar being a really functional piece there. I liked the short role reps he was getting with Bryce Cotton out in Perth to like just when he was just making quick decisions on the role. Like I just kind of see him as more of a shoe in natural fit.

But to your point, like what it's like, if you like Zachary Rissasche, how how long how big of a drop off is it to like a Cody Williams as a big, lanky wing that can that can play if you were to trade down, how big of a drop off is it to go from an Alex Sar to a different big further down in the draft. But at the same time, if you can't actually trade down because no one else wants to trade up, then you're kind

of stuck. And so like to me, Alex Sar just kind of seems like a more natural fit in Atlanta. But I mean, the Vegas numbers seemed pretty confident that he's going to be headed, that it's going to be Zachary Resachet. So if ver Sachet goes one, who do you think goes number two?

Speaker 1

To Washington? Yeah?

Speaker 3

The name that I've gotten mostly connected there is Sar. You know, it feels like you know that that seems like where this is headed is Alex R to Washington. Will Dawkins, who is now the general manager of the Washington Wizards, was the assistant general manager of the Oklahoma City thunder Prying prior to getting the shob you know, played a role in drafting chet Holm Grin. Alex Ar certainly also repped by w M. E. Bill Duffy, the

same agent that he's represents chet Holmgrin. It's it's a pretty easy connection to make there in terms of you know, Will Dawkins, I think wants guys that have this immense upside athletically and allows him to play a potentially interesting five out brand of basketball in a similar way to how Oklahoma City has built their roster. It is difficult to find senators who can dribble pass shoot, or at

least that have potential to dribble pass shoot. It's part of the reason, like we're not going to talk about this guy today, but you know, Kyle Philipowski seems to be a guy that's like kind of falling down boards whenever I talk to teams, Like, I don't know where his flora is on draft night quite yet, but I'm way higher on him because he's a genuine dribble pass shoot big man in an NBA that is like begging

for those guys right now. Alex Aar has potential to genuinely be that on offense, even if it is trying to think about the extent to which I want to say is quite theoretical right now at this point. The jumper, you know, when I watched him throughout the year, I thought it had way too much offhand interaction more than anything, he'd get like a bit of a side spin on the ball. When I saw him later in the year, he clearly had been working through cleaning that up in

a real way. It looks a little bit less side spinny. And then I saw him in a pre draft workout, and you know, look, there was like a very very small amount of side spin, but it was clear that like he's making that adjustment, you know, in real time being a teenager kind of fixing his shot. I think

he has good rhythm through the shot. I think he has very good balance for a guy he moves like a wing at seven feet tall, right, like seven foot four wingspin, and you know that ground coverage defensively is really critical. He's very comfortable dribbling with the ball in his hands. You mentioned kind of the dribble handoff game, the short role passing that I think he's flat, but it's all it's all in flashes though right now with Alex it's not you know, this is not chet Holmgrin.

When chet Holmgren came out Againzaga, I was like, this is the most like anticipatory big defender that I've evaluated. Like he just doesn't have Victor's tools, right, you know, Victor is foot four with an eight foot standing reach, which gives him this like immense margin for error. But like Chet's anticipation defensively is unbelievable for a guy that is,

you know, seven foot with seven foot five winspan. And then on offense, he's a forty three point shooter at Gonzaga who could like grab and go on the break and like be functional with his balance and coordination. Like Alex isn't any of that yet, but he has potential to get to a point where he is like a fifteen point you know, eight rebound, you know ree assists per game guy that's also a really high level defender with like all defense level upside because of how much

ground he can cover on the weak side. And I think even in switch scenario down the road.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I love how aggressive he is in ball screens too, Like one of my biggest pet peeves watching bigs defend in ball screens. This used to always kill me with Daniel Gafford when I was scouting him. But when the Mavericks got him where it's almost like they just they almost find themselves in no man's land where they're not bothering the ball handler or bothering the roll man in any way, shape or form, like what And he gets burned for it sometimes. But I like how Alex is

aggressive on the ball handler. And one of the reasons why I think that could be beneficial is, like, especially against certain types of teams with the guards are a little hesitant to make those passes or when they struggle to make those passes. His length, being aggressive in ball screens I think could be useful. I think he does have a pretty damn high floor, which is why it made sense to me that you had him at number one.

Like he's going to be a solid NBA center. It's just a question of whether or not he has that true upside, and obviously only time will tell. As you said, it's an informed gamble. So number two on your big board, you had Reed Shepherd out. Obviously he had that rough game in the NCAA tournament, but he had just a historic shooting season at Kentucky. I was really fascinated reading in your draft guide his his background and just the pedigree that he came from, and just like, just like

that's crazy. His dad was the most outstanding player in the NCAA tournament back in ninety eight, was it ninety eight? I think, yeah, like that, that is crazy. He's Kentucky royalty. Like it's the easiest way to put it, like he is University of Kentucky royalty. Like his dad, Jeff is one of the like beloved players in the University of Kentucky's basketball history, and his mom, Stacey is like one of you know when she retire, you know, stopped playing

at Kentucky. I think she was like one of the ten best players in University of Kentucky history.

Speaker 3

Like it's crazy.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think that's what you had in the bios. She's a top I think she's like top ten all time in scoring at Kentucky, which is crazy. So I do you read in my brief little film session I did with him, I kind of view him as a guy that I think could be a really good fifth, like fifth best player on a good team, just because he does everything really well, functions within a team really well.

Just a deadly shooter from all these different ranges. He's got the ability to get shots off from every kind of footwork, Like he can hop into it, he can left right, he can right left, he can come off the movie, he can go off the bouts. Like, there's so much that he can do creatively a little bit. Ausa reeves in there with some of the creative rise and fire stuff from the fifteen to eighteen foot range. Where where do you see? Where do you want him to go? Where do you expect him to end up?

Speaker 1

Yeah?

Speaker 3

So I like the idea of him in Hugiston personally, when I look at that young Houston core, I see you know, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, Tari Eason, you know Cam Whittmore certainly I think deserves to be mentioned in that group. And then Alfred Shengun of course, is like their you know center that you know could

be an All Stars soon as next season. And the one thing that I think they're missing there is like a super high level shooter at the end of the day, getting read to like operate in dribble handoffs with Aupura

and Shngun like that would be disgusting to me. I also think Reid like really fits well with a men Thompson in terms of like having that secondary playmaker out there if you want to try and make a man a point guard, which is what he was drafted as, even though this year he played kind of more on the wing and like even in the front court at times after sheng Gun went down. I think that Reed just makes a ton of sense for them as like a connector and is the kind of guy that helps

you win. I think that his anticipation defensively is just like outstanding. He has physical tools that are very limiting. He is six foot one, not super long in terms of his uh, you know, arm length or anything. He has like a six three six four wingspan something like that. But he blocked shots. You know, he has a forty inch vertical leap and he blocked like point seven shots this year, which is a crazy number for a guy

that measured in just under six foot two. He is somebody that like really scrambles well on the back line defensively, Like he makes these crazy like scramble reads where he'll just like force steals at a super high level. And one thing that like I've watched a lot of recently, and we'll talk about this when we talk about Devin Carter.

Speaker 1

Two.

Speaker 3

I know that you are a fan of after watching his tape. The degree to which you can space the court, not just in terms of percentage, but in terms of how far away you can actually shoot from. That is really important to me, if only because if you don't have these immense athletic tools or an immense bag of like tricks where you're crossing dudes up. I think that being able to shoot from thirty feet is kind of a differentiator because It gives you so much more space

to operate away from help defense. If you can change pace and you can shoot from thirty feet, it's just hard to stay in front of guys just point blank. At this point in the NBA, Reid made fifty percent of his threes from beyond what is the number here? I have from beyond twenty seven feet this year, So, like crazy, I kind of think that you're gonna have to account for him in such a real way. It's kind of like Tyrese Haliburton, right, Tyre's Halliburton has that kind of funky load into his shot.

Speaker 1

So what did he do?

Speaker 3

He just learned how to shoot from thirty feet at the end of the day, and that's how he became so valuable as like a floor space there and then allowed him to use his passing ability and take advantage and really get into the teeth of the defense and spray the ball out. I'm not saying that Reid is that as a passer. I don't think he is. I think Read's the best transition passer in this draft class. But in terms of like half court reads, I think

he's still figuring it out. But I also think that like that shooting gravity gives him way more upside than what people are thinking in the class when mixed with the fact that he can also handle the ball.

Speaker 2

I like the Houston Fit a lot too, just because I imagine with them playing a lot with pace and with all their athletes in transition. I loved watching his footage at Kentucky operating in transition, where like everyone's kind of scattered and that's when he can really get into some nifty footwork and dribble combinations and to pull up three point shots. And I just imagine defense is reacting to him there and then just athletes running around him and

him being able to find those reads. I enjoyed watching him today.

Speaker 3

Or even even better with that real quick or a men Thompson like sprints down the court all the way and then you've just got Reed Shepherd like trailing and sprang out to the wings, right. Yeah, Like it's just it's really synergistic in the way it would work. I think.

Speaker 2

Yeah, the thirty footers two are great when you get to be old like me, that's how you that's how you play lazy basketball. You're you're six six and you shoot thirty foot three point shots and you don't have to worry about landing on someone's ankle.

Speaker 1

Okay, so uh.

Speaker 2

Stefan Kass from Yukon famously was being left wide open in the tournament but making some making making him pay hit a couple of them. I really enjoyed watching him too. It's kind of there were some fun players I enjoyed watching. There's some fun players in this in this draft. The to me, Stefan Castle kind of reminds me of like a bigger version of Jalen Hood Chafino, if that makes sense, in the sense that like he's very it's very pace

pace heavy. I know, I know, but you gotta remember, like like I've I that that burned me too.

Speaker 1

It's a whole other thing. But uh uh.

Speaker 2

The what I mean by that is, like I he reminded me of Jalenhod Chafino when I was scouting him last year, where it's like the jumpers, the big question mark, more of like a power methodical put you in jail, kind of operate from the short range kind of area, deadly hook and floater, short jump shot, that sort of thing, but just a way better version of him. And the main reason why I think his footwork is better. I think he's got more counter moves in that short to

mid range that allows him to operate. And like, honestly, like I didn't see anything with his jump shot. He's a little down in front of the face, a little bit of a long load, but I think that can be worked out in time. I'm I'm pretty high on Stefan Castle. I saw you had him way up at third on your list. Where do you see him ending up?

Speaker 3

I'm really glad that you brought up the shot because you know, you mentioned that, like he has like the load up here and then like it comes up and it's kind of a funky shot, and he has like a little bit of a hitch kind of at the top. I think that that's mostly when he's kind of going

to his left. I think when he's going to his left, because like most right handed shooters right just more comfortable stepping back to their left or kind of you know, drifting to their left a little bit, just helps them get into rhythm a little bit easier. But with him, what I see is he drifts a little bit too far to his left, and I think it kind of like throws off his grat like center of balance. And everything, And I think the SHOT's a little bit hitchier when

he's going to his right. He tends to take those shots off the hop, and I think that, like it just looks way cleaner, And I think that everything like kind of tracks a little bit easier. And if I was an organization kind of working through his shot, like I would love to just you know, kind of with his shot prep and like you know, getting into the shot and his load into it, just like start having him take things off the hop a little bit more.

Like he does this a one to two step from the left side, take it off the hop in the right, Like, I just think it looks cleaner, uh, going off the hop. But in terms of where I see him going, you know, san Antonio has been connected with him, you know, for a while now, you know, for a couple of months. It feels like that is a situation that everyone would be like pretty amenable to in terms of both san

Antonio and Castle's camp. If you know, there was somebody who fell to number four, Like if Red Shepherd got there, I think it would be a question. If Rissuschet got to four, I think it'd be a real question. But and then I think the Castle would very likely probably go six at the latest. You know, maybe eight would be the latest, let's say, because I would be surprised if he would get beyond the San Antonio second pick

at number eight, right. But somewhere in that four to eight range, I would say is where Steph will end up. I think that you kind of hit the down on the head in terms of what the offense is. I

think he's a really sharp passer. If you'd even go back to his high school stuff, you can see some like really impressive ball screen reps utilizing his passing ability where he'd hit skip passes pretty well and he'd be able to really really be able to get downhill out of that screen and maintain that advantage, kind of like you mentioned keeping guys in jail, kind of on his hip and everything. The big question is the shot though.

And the other thing I will say is I don't know if I think of him as an all defense level defender, but I think of him as this incredible chess piece defender who is kind of above average doing every assignment on defense. Like they had him in the tournament. Guard Marks, who was an All American point guard at the point of attack and just make his life miserable. You know, they had him guard produce point guard Braydon

Smith throughout the season. They would have him like Chase Baylor Shireman, another potential first round pick this year, off of screens because you know, Creyton just ran Baylor off of screens constantly. They would have him guard like true off guards, like scoring guards and things like that, as opposed to winings. I think he can guard fours with

how physical and strong he is. There's just a lot of versatility in what his role can be on defense, and I think that, particularly in San Antonio, it would be really valuable to have somebody like that next to Victor wen Binyama, next to Devin Vessel, particularly as well, because Vassell looked like a guy who's going to be a really good defender coming out of Florida State, and it just hasn't really happened at this point for him.

In the NBA, I would love to get somebody like Steph Castle in there that can like just take on a lot of different assignments, and you know, hopefully the offensive game just continues to grow and develop.

Speaker 2

So we're gonna move to a little bit more of a rapid fire format here because as usual, Sam, we just have a tendency to go for a very long time.

Speaker 1

And I know, I said, it's.

Speaker 3

So funny you like you like complained. No, you didn't complain. You were like, thank you so much for coming and doing this. Thank you, Like I know, it's crazy busy. I'm just like Jason, I love doing this, Like this is great. These are like by some of my favorite conversations that I do is with you and like thinking about the game in different ways. It was just like, very funny.

Speaker 2

Complaining in our profession is always relative. That's always something we have to keep in mind. But I want to I want to get to a bunch of additional players, and I want to get to Brownie in the next sixteen minutes.

Speaker 1

So we're gonna go a little bit more.

Speaker 2

Rapid fire here really quickly, really quickly. If if you when you talk to people from San Antonio, when you do some digging on that front, what would be their dream outcome for getting four and eight?

Speaker 3

Who is I don't not come there, So I think that their dream outcome would be finding a way to get risa schet and castle. If they could find a way to move up and get like you know, four and five or three and four in some way. Uh, if they could figure out a way to do that, I think they'd be really happy on draft night. I think it'll be a little bit difficult, but that would be my guess in terms of how they foresee a win, especially if Risu sche goes one, I think it'd be a little bit difficult.

Speaker 1

To do that. Yeah.

Speaker 2

I really enjoyed Stefan Castle Like he just no matter how big the game was, no matter how big the situation was, he just forgot sped up. He just was always kind of playing at his own pace. He was fun to watch. Donovan Klingon I like a lot of stuff with him. I love how he functions in that Yukon offense, just as like a really good You talked a lot about his screening in the uh in the in the Draft guy that you did. But I also think he has got a really good instinct for when

to slip like he always can. He always just kind of has his eye on when his defenders showing, and as soon as his defender decides the show, he just doesn't even bother seting the screen anymore, just gets out of there and then like he just he's got good hands. He finishes most most of his catches around the basket. The one thing that freaks me out with him is I worry about him being a little bit matchup dependent because I don't think he's quick footed enough to guard

in space. What's your take on, Dovin klingon No.

Speaker 3

I agree with all of that. I think he's like pure drop coverage is a big What I will say is generally, you know, in terms of the scouting, I think you really nailed what he is. It's not a complicated evaluation. He's just an elite level drop coverage big man, an elite level rim protector, great finisher at the basket. The thing I will throw on is he's a really good high post passer and like passer in terms of he can run dribble handoffs, deny drible handoff, find a

cutter like a super super high level. He manipulates defenders already really good at that. But if he gets down to like the three to six range on draft night, there are a bunch of teams, So like the three six range, the Rockets have Shengun, the Hornets have Mark Williams, the Pistons have Jalen Duran and then four is San Antonio. They Victor Weeb Nyama, Right, So like those teams don't need a center in theory, right, there are a number of teams in the like seven to twelve range, or

so let's call it seven to eleven range. I throw Oklahoma City and I guess that have like a real degree of interest in him, and that's kind of the one that I'm targeting, Like I if I'm Memphis in particular, right, Like that's my favorite fit in this draft would be

Memphis ending up on draft night with Donovan Klingon. Maybe if he falls to five, they trade a future first round pick and number nine to move up to number five to assure themselves Donovan Klingen, who would be this incredible fit within their scheme setting screens for John Morant being the drop coverage defender to let Jaron Rome on the backside defensively. But if Donovan Klingon gets into that three to six range, look for somebody to move up

to get him. In my opinion, because if you hear as I hear things from teams, it seems like there's a lot of interest in him in that like seven to twelve range, and I think somebody will try and spike up to grab him.

Speaker 1

That's super interesting.

Speaker 2

So you're saying these front offices basically have like a bunch of a bunch of game plans that are contingent on what's on, who's going where. So if this guy slips, then we're prepared to draw trade up if in the event that that happens. I really like the clinging fit with Memphis as well. I think they're rangy enough around him. I don't think I don't think people realize good yet how good GGI Jackson is too, and just slott it.

If they get a legit center and it's Morant Baye Jackson and then Jaron Jackson and then a legit center like that, I think they're going to be right back in the mix at the top of the conference next year, especially as a regular season team with all their youthful exuberance.

Speaker 3

They have Marcus Smart too, Like that's the other thing. They have Mark Smart right, like gg Jackson, Like I want to see where it goes with GG Jackson, Like I'm really interested in Like if I was redrafting last year, I think I would have gig like in the top seven of that class, like point blank. But you know next year, like Marcus is going to be the guy that's like really valuable for them, and like we'll see what GG looks like. It's a little where I'm at.

Speaker 2

Well, and and then also there's that they would inevitably have to have a small ball look anyway where you can imagine GG being the four of next to Jaron Jackson. Now, you and I are admittedly biased on the Williams family. I think I think you and I might be the

two biggest Jalen Williams fans in the world. Although I did almost get in trouble with Sam the other day on the phone because I told him that I thought that Jalen Williams has potential to be better than Shay and and Sam had to quickly put him put me in my place.

Speaker 3

But Cody would I don't even I don't even know that I did that. I was just like, oh wow, like I was, I was taken aback.

Speaker 2

But I love take so obviously, you know, it's kind of funny. I there's a little bit of Jalen in Cody's game, mainly the pull up jump shot footwork looks similar in the sense that they both look really good going left. They have that same right left footwork where they both kind of lean back a little bit. But Cody just has this like a totally different look to him because he's like lanky and in a little bit

a little bit taller, a little bit skinnier. Tell us a little bit about Cody Williams and where you want him to end up.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I think he really is kind of like a you know, when Jalen was that young, Jalen was still pretty, he was shorter actually, like when he committed to Santa Clara as a senior, he was I want to say, like six foot three or so, like honestly, it might have been like six foot two and then like grew before he got to Santa Clara and then kept growing all the way up to like six four and a half. I think he is without choose now, but has that

enormous seven foot two wings fan. Cody is six ' seven seven foot one on wings band, so big and long, just very skinny and is continuing to grow into his frame. I think that the footwork is a driver is where I see the similarities. I think that a lot of that looks quite similar. I'm glad you brought up the pull up game, because you know Cody's pull up game is definitely still developing. I would say you didn't take a ton of pull up jumpers in high school where

he went to. I think Perry down in your neck of the woods in Arizona. You know, just a really really good upside bet. I think is a wing that could be like a playmaker. I think he passes really well. I would like to see him be like a little bit more disruptive defensively, but I think he can get there just with his lengthen with his physical tools. So I look at what Cody Williams has and I ended up with him six on my board. You mentioned the

Britischet comparison earlier in the show. I have them literally five and six, So I don't see an enormous difference between the two of those players. They're different types, but I quite like j Cody Williams as well.

Speaker 2

That's I think a good indicator of this draft right there is Rische might end up going number one, and like, yeah, Cody's not a perfect corollary. They played a different style, but there are two lanky wings right that you like. I think Obviously, Versasche is a much better shooter at this point, but Cody shot well in catch and shoot situations. It seemed like when I was looking into it today, all right, we have three more quick players that we're going to get through.

Speaker 1

First.

Speaker 2

Probably the guy that I had the most fun watching today, Devin Carter out of Providence. I really like thought it was fascinating. He was seeing really aggressive coverages, which I'm assuming had a lot to do with the roster that he was playing with, but like it seemed like towards the tail end of the season his playmaking was improving after struggling with it a little bit to start the year. But freaky athletic, really good score. Just I thought he

I thought his motor really impressed me. Just in general. He just was like he just seemed like a Foxhole type of dude, Like a guard that I'd love to have competing alongside me. So tell us about Dev Carter and where you hope to see him end up.

Speaker 3

Yeah, kind of a like, you know, very different players, but like a Derek White like kind of starter kit to me. You know, Devin I think is the best athlete in the class. Just kind of you know, I keep saying point blank, but point blank, he is a forty inch vertical leap guy. He is. You know, any combine tests you put him through, he's gonna win. I think he literally won almost all of the combine test thing. And he's not one of those guys where it's not functional.

It shows up all over his tape, like he blocks one shot per game. He gets into passing lanes and you know, creates transition opportunities. He had like thirty half court dunks or something this year at six foot like a six foot nine wingspan. He is a serious, serious leaper. And then the big thing is like what is the handle?

Speaker 1

Right?

Speaker 3

It's a lot of straight line stuff, a lot of like trying to change pace. How he started to account for that this year was he just started moving back and taking deeper three right if teams were gonna collapse down on him whenever he shot, Okay, I'm just gonna take twenty seven foot threes, right. That's the big question with Devin. You know, his first two years in college one at South Carolina, one at Providence, which is where

he ended up this year as well. I made like twenty seven percent from three this year got way better way up to the volume. Was it like thirty eight percent or so from three on seven? Three point attempts per game, a lot of pull up shots, a lot of contested shots. The thing I love about Devin though, is like I've seen him work out, Like I've talked to people about him everything that you see on tape.

In terms of why you love him being a fox hole guy, it's who he is off the court, like incredible work ethic, you know, great competitor, like all of the boxes get ticked there. I ended up with him at seven. I'm probably the highest person in the public sphere on him. I've talked to teams that are higher on that him than that honestly. So yeah, I love Devin Carter.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's it's kind of reminds me of the JJ Reddick convers Obviously it's different from a coach, but it's like, give me a super competitive dude who loves basketball and has the natural talent, like the understanding of the game. I just feel like they're going to find a way to figure it out. That's the kind of the way I feel with Devin Carter. It's like super competitive, loves

the game, relentless worker. Any elite athletic tools like that just automatically, to me, makes you a super interesting player and a guy that I'd be willing to take a bet on. All right, two more quick ones. Dalton Connect out of Tennessee. You and I talked a lot about him during the tournament this year.

Speaker 1

The Jeco Brethren, the Jewco Brethren.

Speaker 2

I know, Yeah, this is Dalton's like the much much better version of me. He's like what I would have been like if I was way better at basketball, similar kind of to height, like a six y five and a half without shoes on six ten wingspan kind of a score first mentality. Really showed some high level shot making in the NCAA tournament. What do you kind of see him looking like as an NBA player? Where do you like to see him end up?

Speaker 3

Plug and play shooter? For sure, really needs to improve on defense in terms of hitting like top ten upside. I would like to see him land in a scheme where like he'll run off of all that like floppy stuff that Tennessee would run him off of, run him off of all sort of like flares and try to get him shots early in offense. To me, that's where he'll hit like a real ceiling. But you know, regardless of where he goes, he's gonna knock down shots and he's gonna be valuable.

Speaker 2

I think, hmm, So we absolutely have to per per our agreement as NBA media members discuss Brownie James, and I obviously have not watched him nearly as closely as you have. So why don't you just give us just your pure, unadulterated, unbiased perspective on what Bronnie James looks. Because important little disclaimer here, like I don't give a shit about the nepotism angle. Like he's gonna get his opportunity.

He's gonna get several years to figure out whether or not he's an NBA player, So like everyone just needs to accept that that's the reality.

Speaker 1

He's gonna get his shot. The question is if he gets.

Speaker 2

Two three years in an NBA organization to try to figure this out, what NBA level tools does he have and is there a realistic shot for him to round out into an NBA player eventually.

Speaker 3

So the idea behind Brownie James is like a three and T guard, not like a three and D wing. He's like six foot one and a half, right, So he is a guard. The names that will come up are Gary Harris and Avery Bradley, Like those are the two most popular names I've heard from teams and if they like him or like anybody, that's like trying to figure out a point of comparison. I don't think people quite understand how good those guys were in high school

and college. Both of those guys were five star recruits coming out of high school. Avery Bradley a top five kid in his class. Gary Harris was like, you know, top twenty kid in his class. Gary Harris eventually went on I think he won Big Ten Player of the Year. If he didn't win Big Ten Player of the Year, he was first team All Big Ten. Was like an

outstanding outstanding player over multiple years at Michigan State. Top twenty pick, was fantastic, you know, became this awesome three in d guard, like you know, could guard even up to the three eventually. Avery Bradley was a guy that averaged like eleven three and three in his freshman year at Texas or maybe like eleven five and three and was by the end of his year at Texas one

of like the great perimeter defenders in college basketball. Like he was a monster at the point of attack, which is why he ended up going in the top twenty. Bronnie was I thought a good defender this year for a freshman. I didn't feel like he was particularly crazily disruptive anywhere. I would say defense was his best attube this season as a basketball player. And we really wouldn't be having this conversation if it wasn't for Lebron being involved. I kind of have gone back, I'm.

Speaker 2

Gonna cut you off really quickly here, Just how much do you think let me play Devil's Advocate surgery before the season. Does that imp Doesn't that have a substantial impact on what his USC film slash statistical production would have looked like?

Speaker 3

I think it has an impact for sure. My issue with Bronni has kind of always been though that I've never seen him as like a half court shot creator at all. I've always seen him he's pretty good in transition.

I think he makes like pretty solid passing reads. I think he's smart and like understands the game and in an intuitive level in a way you would expect from Lebron's child, right, just the genetics that kind of filter down whatever it is, Like I think he sees the game in the open court in a really positive way.

It's just really hard for me to envision a player that averaged, you know, under five points per game as a freshman at six foot one being a draft prospect, Like I've kind of gone back through, but like back to like two thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, like something like that. I believe Bronnie James would be the first player drafted that is like under six foot two and averaged under five points per game as a one and done player. It's just an extremely uncommon degree

of production and size to be entering the NBA draft. Now, you and I just talked about how much we love Devin Carter, and like we truly like adore that guy's game. I think that there are outcomes where if Bronnie had stayed in college for a couple of years, we could have been looking at Bronnie as a similar player to Devin Carter. Because Devin Carter started South Carolina averaged like

seven points per game, eight points per game whatever. First year, moved up to Providence average fourteen points a game, you know, and six rebounds or so, and then this year was you know, twenty points eight rebounds for as this like was one of the best players in the country. You could have convinced me of that pathway. But where I'm worried now about Bronnie is I don't think he can play point guard in the G League unless they force it, like if they might force the issue, Like let's just

be honest about it. So I'm worried about him getting reps, being able to develop his ball handling and develop his half court feel as a playmaker in the way that would allow him to get the most out of his

game long term. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. I wish the best for the kid, obviously, Like the kid has gone through a crazy number of difficult situations between the heart condition, the pressure that's on him as Lebron James's kid, the fact that he seemingly is as well adjusted as he is, and like everybody will kind of tell you he is quite well adjusted. And you know,

I've been in like media scrums with him before. He seems like a really really nice dude and like a again, like a mature beyond his years in some way like teenager, but like at some level, like the game is the game, right, and you got to be able to prove it. Like everyone talks about like Tony Allen, Right, Tony Allen's you know more our age ish, Right, do you remember how good Tony Allen was at Oklahoma State, Jason, Oh my god, Tony Tony Allen won the Big Twelve Player of the Year,

He won the Big Twelve Tournament MVP. He led Oklahoma State to a thirty one and four record and led them to the Final four. And that guy like Boston like tried to make him point guard for a minute or whatever, but he eventually settled in as like one of the great defensive players in the league. And that's the vision that people have for Brownie. And there's just like no to me, Like, I just don't know what the backing for that is based on what we've seen

so far. Is maybe the fairest way to put it, but maybe he can get there.

Speaker 1

Do you think quickly?

Speaker 2

Do you think do you think this was a strategic move on the family and Clutch Sports part to capitalize on more of the intrigue around him knowing because like, here's the thing, I would imagine he'd actually make more money going back to USC in nil.

Speaker 1

Deals so or at least close.

Speaker 2

So, like, do you think they're actually trying to avoid him putting more college tape out there that kind of dampens or kind of like minimizes some of the intrigues around his potential.

Speaker 1

Nay.

Speaker 3

I think that everything about this has been strategic from Clutch like Rich I've never heard an agent be more public about the way he's handling a prospect and Rich Paul has been with at this point, and to me,

all of that is very strategic. Coming out and saying that he won't take a two way is trying to drive him down the board at the end of the day, because if you're you're trying to stop other teams from taking him, you know, coming out and saying that he'll only work out certain places, that that's trying to drive him to a specific situation. So I think the whole thing has been trying to control the process, drive him to specific situations.

Speaker 1

You know.

Speaker 3

Let's be honest, Like it seems like the Lakers. I'm not going to sit here and say, like, for sure it's the Lakers, but the way Rich Paul is handling this process is exactly the way you would handle it if your goal is to get him to a specific destination without saying that that is one hundred percent the goal, and that I know that's one hundred percent the goal. Everything he has done has been acting like that is the goal, at least, let's say so like and I

respect it, like I understand the goal. I understand everything about it in terms of like making more an il lesson nil if he had just stayed in school. The most popular college that I got for Brownie because he did enter the transfert transfer portal, so college's you know, kind of had a sense of what was going on the most popular name. I'm not saying he would have

gone there. I'm just saying the most popular idea I got for Brownie James was for him to go to Dukane, which is where Drew Joyce just got the head coaching job. Drew Joyce played high school basketball with Lebron at Saint Vincent Saint Mary's his dad. You know, I believe Drew Joyce senior or the second, I can't remember, Drew coaching Ducaine now is the third or not was a coach

at Saint Vincent Saint Mary, you know, for Lebron. And then Drew Joyce who just took the Duquane job, was the head coach, or was an assistant coach under Keith Danbrot, who was Lebron's head coach, also at St. Vincent Saint Mary's early in his career, so there were a lot of familial connections where if you're gonna send Brownie somewhere, it would be very comfortable, right. That's a place where you know that Bronnie will be treated well, where you

know that he'll get every opportunity to succeed. And honestly, like in the A ten level, I think that'd be great for Bronnie to get a chance to like thrive and get a chance to play on the ball and showcase what he's capable of. But you know, ultimately they decided to go a different way, and I respect it. I just have concerns as to whether or not it was what was best for his development because the G League is a higher level of basketball.

Speaker 2

At the end of the game, it's gonna be very sink or swim for him for sure. Yeah, and again, my last take on it again is like I hate when people complain about the nepotism, because guess what, nepotism has existed in every single field for as long as I can possibly remember, not even the first time it's happened in the NBA, Like big who cares. He's going to benefit from it. He's going to get a lot

of opportunity as a result of it. But guess what, no good coach is going to put him on an NBA floor in a meaningful basketball game if he doesn't earn his opportunity to be there. So like it at a certain point, like we talked, we opened the show with it, like this is the nature of the ruthlessness of professional sports. He might have his opportunity to grow and to learn on the fringes of the NBA, but like, no one's gonna just hand him a starting role on

a legitimate NBA team. He's going to have to earn it. He's just going to get an opportunity by virtue of this. But that is all we have time for today, Sam, Can you please just tell everybody how to find your draft guide, how to find your other NBA draft content.

I think it was. I can't even tell you how much it helped me today in my crash course on this NBA draft to just as a reference as I was going through film like it just was such an incredible product and I want you to shout it out to everybody's we can get as many people over there as possible.

Speaker 3

We have a testimonial. Go to the Athletic where the draft guide is up. It's like one hundred and thirty thousand words on the seventy five best prospects in this class, recorting to me, at least you'll be able to read about their backgrounds a little bit, get more of an understanding of where they come from, understand their strengths, their weaknesses, and kind of where I stand on them as prospects.

Go to the Game Theory YouTube channel. I have interviewed like eight or nine or ten of these kids, where you'll be able to watch film of me breaking down film with them. Right today I released Donovan Klingen, Right, Donovan was super fun. He's like this awesome kid, really good personality. Tomorrow I'll release Tristan da Silva, who's like one of the most mature and like super high IQ basketball players I've gotten a chance to talk to as

a player rising from college to the NBA. So go to the Game Theory Podcast with Sam Senior YouTube channel. You'll see all that, and look, I'll be going live for the draft, so I'm excited to kind of run through it and talk through it all with you guys.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I know you're sick of me telling you thank you, but thank you again for making the time to do this for us today.

Speaker 3

That we might as well record it, Jason, we might as well record it right because we're gonna do it anyway over the phone.

Speaker 1

So exactly exactly.

Speaker 3

Product out there in the content space.

Speaker 2

Right exactly, might as well might as well have it help our jobs a little bit, all right, guys, That is all we have for today. Tomorrow I am recording a video on the five Biggest Takeaways from this postseason, which is also going to feature some of the things that Sam and I have talked about over the course of the last few weeks. And then obviously we'll be reacting to the draft on Thursday morning. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show and we'll see you tomorrow.

Speaker 4

The volume

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