Hoops Tonight - NBA Contender Rankings: Why Lakers & Warriors can win title, Suns & Thunder threats

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bet based on amount of initial losing bet. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See dkang dot com slash promos for deposit wagering and eligibility restrictions, terms and responsible gambling resources. All right, welcome to hoops to I here at the volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. As you guys know. On Monday, we sat down with Sam Vssini to do our contender rankings and we went

all over the place. We ended up talking for almost three hours. We hit like seventeen different teams. Yesterday we ran part one of that list, which included a contender's one through five on my list as well as Sam's agreements and disagreements, and then I went through the four teams with thirty one plus wins that I don't think have a chance to win the title. So if you missed that, that's on our feed from yesterday. In today's show,

we're running part two of that show with Samassini. We're gonna be hitting my number six through number thirteen on my contender's list, as well as Sam's agreements and disagreements. So we also got into some tactical stuff, some stuff that we would potentially see in matchups should these teams make deep playoff runs. A lot of good Hoops talk in there for you. You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe to a brand new YouTube channel.

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so we can keep hitting them throughout the season. And the last, but not of least, before we get started, have you ever had like a bad ticket buying experience. Maybe put the ticket in the cart and you go to check out and then all these fees get added on it ends up just being way more expensive than you expected. Or maybe you bought a seat and then you guys to the arena and the seat wasn't what you were expecting in terms of just the quality of

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seconds with two taps. And as much as we enjoy watching these games, we got like twenty something games left in the season. Get out see your favorite team in person. Get to an NBA arena. It's always an incredibly different experience to watching at home. A lot of older veteran guys like Steph and Katie and Lebron that might be gone before too long from the nba'd be great to see them in person. Take the guesswork out of buying

tickets with game Time. Download the game Time app, create an account and use code Hoops for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again, Create an account, and then redeem code Hoops. That's Hops for twenty dollars off. Download game Time Today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right, without any further ado, let's get to part two with Sam Vessini of our contender rankings number six the Phoenix Suns for me, sure, yeah, the I you know,

it's funny. I am lower on the MAVs uh trade deadline moves than you are in the sense that like I don't necessarily I guess you haven't actually said anything about their deadline moves. But I thought Phoenix's deadline moves were smart because they actually brought players into the equation that I could see playing significant roles. For instance, like

I think there's a k one player. Well, so I think I think there's a universe where a Kadi at center lineup could have Royce O'Neil and Daddy is young

although he was more of a buyout. He was a buyout, but like but still like I could see, like to me, Royce O'Neil is probably in their closing five, which is what makes it like, whereas with the MAVs, it's like I would probably rather have I'm we'll talk about the mass it gets a little bit tougher, so like I you know, it's interesting because they were the two teams that I thought behaved most desperately at the deadline in terms of like going to to like to make these like moves on the margins.

what I'm seeing from Phoenix overall. I do get concerned, though, not to bring up the injury thing, but like they Beal and Booker are both susceptible to these like soft tissue injuries, which always freaked me out a little bit because, like, I think they need to be really humming on offense when they get to the postseason for this to work, and rhythm is going to be a huge part of that.

And like Beale just went down with another hammy, and so I do get concerned about him getting back and actually getting into rhythm and time for it to matter. Because things really took off for the Suns this year when Beial was consistently in the lineup, and so I do believe in that group. I actually think they're just a much better version of last year's Suns team. It's just I'm concerned about whether or not they'll be in rhythm at the right time. Where do you have Phoenix set?

or else it gets really really hard for them. I agree with you in terms of the Katie closing at the five lineups. Sometimes time can be really valuable. But in the Western Conference, where you have to deal with Carl Town's Rudy Gobert combination in the front court, you have to deal with Nikola Jokic in the front court, I think that it's going to be very difficult for

them to not have Nurkic on the court. I mean, how would you even feel about a Lakers series against the Suns if they tried to go small with KD against like Anthony Davis at the five. Like, I think that's probably a bad idea for the Suns because I think it would be putting too much onto Kd's shoulders just physically in terms of wear and tear over the course of a full series in my opinion, So I really think Nurkic is essential, and I worry about his

health a little bit. Biale as you mentioned, continues to go down here and there with injuries. I've only played four hundred and forty minutes together this season, and yet when they have been playing together, they have been phenomenal this year. Like, those lineups are fantastic. Grayson Allen this year. Grayson Allen is shooting fifty one forty eight eighty nine

this season. Grayson Allen is going to get so much money this offseason that, uh, he's the guy that people keep not bringing up in free agency as like an option for some of these teams. Grayson Allen is having like the best like walk year marginally compared to like where everybody else was entering the season, compared to where they are now in the NBA, Like he's averaging thirteen points a game on fifty one eighty nine in a role where they desperately need him night after night after

night to perform and succeed. Okay, let's talk about the questions here, Like their closing lineup, it sounds like you think is Booker, Katie Beal, Grayson Allen, and Royce O'Neil or Nurkic depending on the matchup for Royce or Grayson.

Sacramento the other night. That's like several huge plays down He's one of those guys kind of like Jokic, where like when he's really active with his hands, especially like on the ball handler, like when he's not sitting back passively but rather more aggressive, he can actually be pretty

impactful because he's a smart player. I actually get more concerned about him against Like you know why I think he's such a bad matchup against the Lakers is like Lebron can run pick and roll against him, whereas so many other teams can switch, Like he can get downhill against him, he.

the New York Knicks. And here's my reasoning. I think if a couple of things go right for them, and that's Mitchell Robinson coming back from his ankle injury, which apparently there's some optimism coming out of his camp that it's a possibility if Mitchell Robinson can come back from his injury, if Julius Randall can come back and get in rhythm in time for the playoffs. I think they're one of the most physically imposing teams in the league.

The numbers coming out of their core three are insane two hundred and eighty five minutes of Randall, Brunson, and Anonoby one twenty nine offensive rating, one oh four defensive rating, and a fifty six percent rebound percentage. And before anybody brings up the talent stuff, I think personally, Jalen Brunson is a fringe superstar type of guard. Like I think he is so so, so good. I think he's let me put it this way, I think he's closer to like what people think Dame is than like the Donovan

Mitchell tier. In my opinion, like I think he is. I think Jalen Brunson is freaking awesome, and I think if you give him a truly physically imposing team that can defend at an elite level, that can rebound at an elite level, and as long as Julius Randall doesn't piss down his leg when he gets to the playoffs, I think they have that type of potential. Am I too high on the Knicks? What do you feel about the Knicks?

have Donovan Mitchell in this year. But I don't mind your take there that like he is within that Lillard Mitchell grouping of players at this point, he really just kind of is. He is a fantastic, fantastic player in terms of being able to get through his spots. He decelerates exceptionally well, He's constantly on balance, he has elite, elite elite touch. He's a genuine three level scorer. In a way that you need three level scorers to consistently

keep defenders off of their toes. Now, how much do you trust him in isolation versus without a ball screen. The only reason I say that is because I don't know if they have another guy on this team that can score without a ball screen. Right now, that's my one concern about this. Everything is so tied to what Jalen can do offensively, being able to create separation, being

able to make the offense work. What do they do if an opposing team, you know, I'm trying to think of like in the West for instance, right like, if an opposing team is just like fuck it, We're gonna throw Kawai on him and like just go okay, like let's make this work. Or the Nuggets throw KCP on him and say let's go crazy and like completely shut it down. On top of it, teams are going to attack him on defense. That's the reality. The Calves last year had an easy spot to hide Jalen Brunson on

and TIBs did that immaculately well. They spent time using the lavert Acoro et cetera grouping at the three, where they'd space that guy into the corner, use it like an attacking help defender, and they spent time with Brunson using him as like a rest defender basically to get him a blow, to be able to get some like active rest on the court. Basically. The heat also really gave him a lot of options to be able to hide on in a real way. If they run into

the Celtics, there isn't a place to hide. If they run into the Bucks, there are probably places to hide. I would say, like you could hide him on Patrick Beverley and be fine. You could hide him on Andre Jackson, on Jay Crowd or whoever. But in the West, I think there are much there are many fewer places to hide on Jalen Brunson. So I agree with you. On offense. I think Brunson's a bit worse defensively than what Donovan Mitchell is and that causes a few issues for them. Schematically,

they are total ass kickers if they're fully healthy. Oj A Nanobi is a stud playoff potential player. Hasn't really shown it yet in the playoffs, but like I think that that will come. I think it will happen at the highest level. Like you said, Mitchell, Robinson is kind of the key for me. I love Isaiah Hartenstein. I think he is again another one of the most like

underrated impactful players across the entire league. But they need forty eight minutes of just being like total last kickers on the glass, not just twenty four, I think to be able to make a run. Honestly, if they got placed into a Bucks series right now, I really might take that.

It's tricky. But like I look, man, like, I literally sit there and I think, okay, Like, if they're healthy, they have such a clear top five in the sense that it's like like like literally Dante Devincenzo has been one of the best spot up players in the league this year, and he's a good point of attack defender who brings physical ball pressure like like that Brunson, Devincenzo, og Julius, Mitchell Robinson. That's just a really good basketball team.

I I that's an that's an interesting thing to put him against Milwaukee because Milwaukee is like one of those teams that's just so far from their potential at this point. But that to me is the case. It is like the case. You know, we talked about the Suns a minute ago. If the Suns started their playoff run tomorrow, they would have to beat Denver four times out of seven, and then after that they would have to turn around

and beat Minnesota four times after out of seven. And then after that they'd have to turn around and beat what Oklahoma City probably four times out of seven, and then after that Clippers or the Clippers or the Clippers, yeah, most likely the Clippers. And then if they won that, they'd have to turn around and most likely beat Boston or somebody like that four times out of seven. There's

just in the Eastern Conference. To your point, they're third, like in all likelihood if you're ranking the team so so like, it's really like if the Bucks don't materialize, you physically bully the Bucks, you get it done. Then you go on and it's like all we have to do is beat Boston and now we're in the finals. You know, just it just seems like a more achieva.

out on the court. So they probably have played Beasley in those circumstances. But if you're playing Beasley, then you have a real schematic offensive advantage on the court. So let's say it's Beasley, you put honestly, like I would, I don't know if I would put Randall on them. They run Beasley off of a lot of actions. There are different ways chematically, like you can really cause problems for them in terms of light up constructions, in terms

of different things, because you have the n Andobe factor. Now, who can throw thirty minutes onto Jannis and he won't stop Jannis, but he's strong enough, physical enough to at least slightly reduce Jannis's you know, effectiveness over the course to series, especially when you have a help defender at the center position. They're waiting as well. You can just get late contests on brook Lopez Three's at that point, and you'd be pretty comfortable. I think if you're the Knicks.

The more I talk about this, the more I think I would take the Knicks in a series specifically against the Bucks. Right now, I.

frontlines in the league. I'm just really high. I'm just really high on the Knicks.

top ten in both half court offense and defense. Of something that I'm sure a lot of people are not aware of with the Lakers, they are also the third best clutch team in the league this year. They've been really good on both ends of the floor there. They have been like four different teams this year because like when they won the nd season Tournament, they were like this grinded out, defensive minded team that just like strangled games into the mud and ran everything out of the post.

And then all of a sudden, like now they're like this like beautiful ball movement, player movement, five five out offense. They're like the best assisted turnover team in the league over the last fifteen games and fifth in offensive rating. But they can't guard anybody to save their lives, and they have now with Jared Vanderbilt out, they literally don't even have a single healthy point of attack defender on

the roster. So but like the case for the Lakers is simple, Jared vander Jared Vanderbilt comes back, he gets healthy, he takes primary point of attack assignments the five out approach, which involves Jared Vanderbilt not standing in the corner but rather constantly moving as a screener and as a drouble handoff guy and cutting to the basket. And basically, the Lakers had turned Jared Vanderbilt into a useful offensive player right before he got hurt. He actually had like a

bunch of double figure scoring games in a row. And then the case would be is that the five out offense just achieves a transcendent you know, you know, like just Lebron Anthony Davis hutting and moving without the basketball, and Austin and Di Loo just making great decisions. That's the case for it. But I do think it's a long shot, and I thought that their inability to bring in a legitimate two way athlete on the perimeter at the deadline was kind of the death knell of their season.

But I still think they have an outside shot and you can kind of see it, and that's why I have them at number eight, or do you have the Lakers?

play off of him. They will put the center on him and play off of him in the playoffs if you are if you have a second body to be able to do so, Like the Nuggets will just use Nicola Jokic like in the middle of the court and play off of him, right, the Clippers would just use I think I would bet you the Clippers would put Kawhi on ad and just use a Vitza Zubats like in the middle of the court as the help defender and just say, okay, Jared, run around, do your thing,

like move around, that's fine. We'll just be here waiting for you at the rim, and we'll be here waiting for everybody else at the rim as well. I don't think you can close with Vanderbilt. I think Vanderbilt's a valuable player for twenty minutes a game in the playoffs, like you've shown that before. I just don't think you can close with them. I wonder if their best closing lineup is actually the three guards including Spencer Dinwitty.

if they run into the MAVs? Like, can they defend either of Luca or Kyrie?

did not have a single player. They had all off season to figure it out, They had all season to figure it out, and they just literally did not even come up with a single option. As a matter of fact, they ditched Dennis Schroeder, which in my opinion, like if the alternative was Gabe Vincent, I'd rather have Dennis Schroeder. So like, like it just it. I don't understand why they never addressed it. But I mean that said, like, here's the thing, why is it such a big deal

for the Lakers and not for the Bucks? And I understand that the Bucks have a better record, but the Bucks have also played a substantially easier schedule and are playing in a conference with a lot of teams at the bottom where you can pile up some easier wins. I actually think in bigger games this year, the Lakers have actually fared about as well as Milwaukee has. So like that's that would be My counter to that case is like why are we giving Milwaukee that leeway but

not the Laker? Like why is it that we go like, oh, Damon Giannis, what don't they just figure it out? But we can't just say Lebron James and Anthony Davis and a bunch of offensive skill can't figure it out, you know what I mean?

disparage him. He's a better point of attack like aggressive defender than he is, Like he can scramble around and move, but like he tends to be like pretty over aggressive I think in scramble situations and in help situations and like kind of gets lost a little bit. So like to me, that's actually the difference. It's like the backing of having brook Lopez there in addition to their you know,

ad in Yannis. I think that they can It's hard to say the Bucks can stand on defense when they haven't stood on defense this year for a single second of the season, but like I do think that schematically it makes a little bit more sense for them to be able to do so, and they're just more physical.

You know. One of the reasons that like I think think it's like absolutely insane DEVI the Lakers ahead of the Thunder at this point is the way to beat the Thunder is to like be an absolute ass kicker going toward the ram uh finishing at the basket, but also like crashing the offensive last being aggressive that way. Do you know the worst offensive rebounding team is in the NBA right now, the Lakers, the Los Angeles Lakers.

Anthony Davis. He is arguably the best two way player in the league this season, and Anthony Davis should be top three in defensive Player of the Year on equivocally, so far, I think he has been fantastic on that end. Beyond that, Lebron has not been awesome on defense this year. He's I think that, like there have been moments where

he's brought it, but like he's not been great. The advanced numbers because he pairs a lot of his minutes with a D are like pretty okay, and like forgiving to Lebron on that end, but like generally so I think he has not been great and like attentive on that end. Austin Reeves has not been very good on defense. The Angela Russell has not been very good on defense.

Ruey is you know still space CANETI off the ball in a way that is concerning that they just don't have, you know, Cam Reddish Camp offense at a level that you need to in the playoffs. Spencer Dinwitty sneakily. I know that it hasn't been a great offensive season for him.

I actually thought that, like he took on a lot of difficult assignments for Brooklyn this season, Like nobody paid attention to Brooklyn because they were like the most milk toasted basketball team on planet Earth prior to the deadline. But like Spencer, for like people who said like Spencer was like quiet quitting the nets, he were like he had to fight every night against like an opposing team's good offensive player when they were running out Cam Thomas.

Like he had to do more than what I think people gave him credit for. Now, he hasn't had a great offensive season. I'm not gonna sit here and like defend Spencer dinwitdi. I do wonder if you know, six foot six can at least like hold up in those matchups a little bit better certainly than Reeves than Russell have. I mean, like it's like damning with faint praise, but like I think Spencer might actually be really helpful for them.

I will say this, like, because you know, I know that you have both the Thunder and the MAVs over the Lakers in large part because they don't have guys to throw at those two perimeter options for both teams, I am not as worried about that for one very simple reason. I think Lebron James and Anthony Davis would rip through the MAVs in Thunder front lines for Evans

straight games. I think they would just obliterate their front lines. Like, I think it would be an utter physical ass kicking in the front lines in the same way that Shay and Jalen and Luca and Kyrie would kick the ass of the Laker perimeter players and so like to me, I think it's I think I think people are a little low on the Lebron ad front line as a playoff duo. Just In general, I think again. You pointed

it out. Lebron James in the N Season Tournament was the that was the only time he tried on defense this year. I can state that as someone who's watched the team very closely, like the Lakers are a lot better than their record would indicate. As a matter of fact, they went three and ten in the first thirteen games after the N Season Tournament and blew a bunch of games against atrocious teams, like truly bad teams that they

just went out, didn't play hard and lost to. So like I my thing is like any case for the Lakers, for me falls apart when they run into teams that are big and have the advantages on the on the perimeter. So like for me, the Lakers, I get scared about Minnesota,

I get scared about Denver. I even get scared about the Clippers a little bit because of the fact that Kauhi can bang with Lebron, and because of the fact that Zubac has always given ad issues just in terms of like shoving him under the basket, getting offensive rebounds, just hold like he just physically overwhelms a d sometimes. So like to me, I'm way more worried about the Lakers against the big teams like you and I argued

about this on the phone. I would pick the Lakers over the Thunder and the MAVs in a playoff series. I just think they'd obliterate them on the front line.

you know, set of games, it's gonna be hard. Like dealing with those two is a handful. They can really really defend when they want to defend, and they are great offensively. Having to do it from where they're gonna have to come from is my issue kind of similar to what you said with was it was It Phoenix. I believe you know, we're talking about the Knicks in

terms of like third seed or whatever. Right like, they're gonna have to do it against the timber Wolves and the Gobert a D or the Gobert Towns front line. Then they're probably gonna have to do it against you know, whoever the hell finishes four or five. It could honestly be Denver in the four or five matchups, So you might have to do it against Denver again, and they have no shot against Denver in my opinion, And then you might have to do it against the Clippers where

zoobots is gonna go against them. Right Like, coming from the eight seed the seventh seed is a substantial, substantial problem I think for the Lakers again and again and again, just having to get up for Lebron for two months straight of playoff basketball against teams where they don't have a schematic advantage because of how bad their perimeter point of attack defense is totally fair.

I'm a big believer in like even a limited player that is great at a thing you're bad at as a team can be monumentally important for your basketball team. It's just something I've seen time and time again. It's something that I believe very strongly. And so number nine and this is my last tier of teams. These are all law shots to me. So these are all teams where like I just I would be really surprised if

they won. But they have just like specific things each of them have, like that one big thing for me that's like, yeah, you can't write them off because of this. And Number nine for me is the Golden State Warriors. The reason is simple, you can't write them off because of Steph Curry. He's playing incredible as of late. The Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, John I Thin kaminga foursome in two hundred and forty six minutes this year. It has a one to twenty offensive rating and a

one oh four defensive rating. They have been bad at rebounding, but that's been kind of an issue regardless of their lineups as of late. Their main concerns they're late in games. Their offense just goes from being this like beautiful ballplayer movement to just Steph Curry running around chasing his own shot, which I think I think is as much as I love Stephan as much as I love Steve Curry, I

think it's bad process. I think they I think that has actually led to diminishing turns in a lot of ways, and I think they have more options than what they've demonstrated. Also, I'm higher on their defensive issues that they've had as of late, Like their crunch time defense has been really bad and it's cost them in a lot of these games. But I think it's schematic, not personnel based, Like they're

really overhelping a lot right now. It's a major thing that I'm noticing, where like if a guy has a defender, or if a guy has an offensive player on his hip and he's like tracking him and driving with him to the basket and instead of just letting him force him into a tough contested layup at the rim or anything other than an easy kickout. They're just all converging on the basketball and giving up these wide open shots. So, like, I think they can be a lot better than what

they have been. It's an extreme long shot because they just don't have any offensive production outside of Steph Curry that's consistent, especially within a playoff lens. But like you can kind of see it's like Steph Curry's top five player in the world. They have a ton of athleticism now that they've been going to Kamena and Wiggins in the front line. Like that's the long shot. Where are you at with the Warriors?

from the lineup has been valuable. But the problem for them is that they're going to run into teams that have real bigs where they have to play Kevon Looney and they have to play Draymond Green with Kevon Looney in all likelihood, Like, you can't just run out. I think that where they have found success is in situations that probably aren't that applicable to the teams that they're

going to have to play in the playoffs. If they play the Nuggets as the seventh seed, they have to play Kevon Looney thirty minutes a night or else, Like, what are you gonna put Draymond Green on Nikola Jokic? Like, I love, love, love Draymond Green, but I don't feel great about that matchup. I just don't. I'm sorry. It's really hard to play five out against the Nuggets because the Nuggets are better than you at playing five out.

If they play the Timberwolves, you have to play Kevon Looney, I think, Like, at the end of the day, I think that you're gonna have to do that. So I worry about what the playoff schematics look like as much as anything. Like, the Warriors have been great with this smaller lineup. But do you think, and this is a real question for you, do you think that this smaller

lineup can find success in the playoffs consistently? Because if you look at the teams that they've beat recently, it's like seventy six ers if I remember correctly, that was the game where Joellen be got hurt. Right, So, like they blew the doors off of them, beat the Nets, beat the Hawks, beat the Grizzlies, you know, beat the Pacers with like a reduced Tyres Halliburton, beat the Jazz twice, beat the or lost of the Clippers, right or no, they lost to the Hawks, I'm sorry, but then like

lost to the Lakers, lost of the Kings. Like the good teams they've played over the course of this month, for the most part, they have struggled to beat them. And I wonder if it's like a schematic thing where teams with real size they forced them away from the Kaminga Draymond look can cause them real issues, and that those actual problems haven't been addressed and been fitted.

you know what I mean. But his jump shot after being red hot during that hot streak has gone way way way down and he does struggle that now Now teams are starting to throw multiple bodies at him, And this is what I've been saying over that whole stretch. I was like, Okay, John Kamina is playing really really well. But you get to the postseason, everything is about exposing

your weaknesses. They're going to find a way to. Like the big one with Kaminga is like if you throw late help after he puts the ball on the floor, he is turnover prone, and so that's a big one. And then the other one too is just in off ball situations you can just straight up play off of him, like he's not a guy that you necessarily have to worry about out there, and so that puts you in a situation where you basically don't have a reliable secondary

shot creator. I'm less worried about the I'm less worried about the defensive configuration as a pertin to Looney because I think the I think Looney has been so bad this year that whatever athletic advantages you gain in rotation by just being faster are are more important than whatever size you get from Kevon Looney. I think Kevon Looney,

I don't know. I don't know if it's because he's still kind of young, like he's not that old, Like I don't understand what it is with him, but he just has not been as useful this year as he as he was in previous years. Like I I would lean more on speed and be like, we just got to be a team that's excellent in rotation against these teams that are too big for Draymond to handle one

on one in the front line. But like, here's the bottom line, though, as you put it, like there's a reason why I have them in my long shot tier, why you have them at number nine is like there's just teams that are way better than them at the things that they do, And it's really that simple.

more toward like they've been successful. I've really liked this group, but like in terms of playoff success, I actually truly really think that you need SI, Like you need somebody to match up with Nikole Jokich, you need somebody to match up Carl Towns, you need somebody to match up with like anybody else that Like, even I think they deal well with the Pelicans, like I think they deal well with Zion, but like like Yonah's would cause them some problems. I think on the front line, the Yonahs

Zion combination would cause them some problems. I think in the front line, I just I don't think they've solved it. I really don't. In terms of when teams they have too many gaps that you can attack. I really respect how hard you know, Brandon Pajemski plays on the ball, and like I really are off the ball, and I really respect his basketball IQ Like he's like kind of a necessity for them as a secondary creator a lot of the time, and teams are gonna attack him on

the ball, like pretty regularly. On defense, I don't think that they're gonna find an answer defensively for this at the end of the day, And if they do find an answer for it defensively, like if Kevon can figure out whatever's going on there, and if Andrew Wiggins can come back to like this world which he hasn't benep it, yeah in recent weeks. Yeah, I still think that they have too many mismatch issues on the defensive end to

where teams are gonna be able to take advantage of them. Like, Okay, like what you would like to do against Minnesota is you'd like to play a big against Carl Towns and then have Draymond guard Rudy Gobert and then help off of Draymond like on the or use Draymond as the help defender on Towns, drives on Town's post ups, force him into tough decisions and be able to attack that way. You can't really do that with like Jonathan Kaminga. You

can't put him on Carl Towns. Towns will bury him on the block, which means you then have to put Draymond on Towns, and I think Draymond would annoy the shit out of Carl Town's But like then you're putting Rudy Gobert on You're putting Jonathan Kaminga on Rdy Gobert, and they'll just spam one five ball screens with Mike Conley and Gobert, and for his athletic as Kaminga is,

he can't out high point Gobert. And then if you do that, you're then helping off of towns, probably with the tag defender in Draymond, in order to try and shut that down. And then you're leaving towns open, and then you're in scramble situations where you have Anthony Edwards setting up in a scramble situation right where he can attack a scramble bent defense. I think they're coming from

too far away, is where I'm at right now. I think the Warriors are coming from too far away from where they are to be able to really truly contend.

defensive rebounding team. It's like you watch the Jazz game and it's like they keep getting stops, but just guys are flying in and getting rebounds over them, and then it's like they finally get a stop at the end of the Clippers game and no one boxes out Russell Westbrook and they he comes flying in and he like they just that that to me. Like I actually, again, I'm higher on their defensive potential than you are. But like, like the defense, the rebounding piece, I don't know that

that can be fixed. All Right, we're gonna do We're gonna do one more in depth and then we're gonna move quick through the end. So number ten, I have the Oklahoma City Thunder. So my my, my Thunder pessimism. And I've said this a million times, and I have to say it as a disclaimer just because of the way that sometimes people act in the way that the internet is. Yes, uh, I love everything about this Thunder team. I love Shay. I've been super high on him for

a long time. Jalen Williams was talking about him this morning. He had a couple of nasty step back threes the other night against god who was it, I can't even remember, but I was. I was watching him, you know. You know, he's actually been the second best pull up jump shooter in the league this year, Like minimum two hundred attempts. There's like forty four guys. James Harden's number one, Jalen Williams is number two. He's getting like one point one

point eight points per pull up jump shot. It's completely outrageous and like and he's like just got that in combination with real downhill force. I love Chet. I love not just how good he is now, but what his potential is and what his demeanor is like and his competitiveness. Lou Dort's one of my favorite three and D players in the league. Huge thunderfan. This is just simply based on my overarching basketball opinions, which is our book philosophies,

whatever you want to call it. In my opinion, if you are small and young, you're not gonna win in the late phases of the NBA playoffs, specifically, last year's conference finalists final four teams all four, we're top eleven in defensive rebounding at twenty twenty two. The MAVs, Warriors, and Heat were all top ten. The Celtics were fifteenth twenty twenty one. All four conference finalists we're all in

the top eleven in defensive rebounding percentage. I think a big part of it is when you get into that phase, kind of like we saw in the Cavs Nicks series last year, those physical advantages actually just get over emphasized when you get to that point. There's a reason why no rebounds, no rings is a saying. It's actually a big, big version of why I have some skepticism surrounding the Clippers. In my opinion, the Clippers are just a better version

of the Thunder. I know they don't play schematically the exact same way, but in terms of the way that they're constructed as like these kind of two way perimeter players, I just think Kawhi and Paul George are better versions of that than Shay and Jalen are, especially at this phase in their careers. So like I really like Oklahoma City, I would be as Barrings, some sort of weird thing where like Shaye decides he doesn't want to be in

the Thunder anymore and demands a trade. I don't think that the Thunder are going to go through this era without winning a title. I think they're going to. I think they're too good, not too I just to me in a field this stacked, I would just be so surprised if this super young, super small team somehow ended up with the trophy at the end of the day, tell me why I'm wrong, Sam.

they are the best transition team in the NBA. Now, I typically don't love transition basketball in the playoffs. I think it is much more difficult to execute than just being an elite level half court execution offense. Having said that, with the Thunder, where the transition adeptness helps is if you decide that you want to try and attack the offensive glass against the Thunder and you want to go for that, they're going to kill you in transition even

in the playoffs. Like if you decide, hey, we're the Lakers, we want to crash with ad we want to crash with really just ad I guess Lebron as well, would be your idea. If I'm the Thunder, I'm saying, be my guests, we're still gonna get probably sixty five percent of those, like, even if we're the worst defensive rebounding

team in the league. Will probably like, even if we like go even worse than the worst defensive rebounding team in the league and we get sixty five percent of the offensive or the defensive rebounds and you're crashing multiple guys, we're gonna beat you in transition more than you're gonna beat us on the offensive class. So I would invite

that if I'm them. Now, the question with the Lakers, the question with teams that like can really get downhill rim pressure is what will Chet look like in the playoffs. I think Chet is an outstanding competitor. I think Chet is somebody whose mentality is going to translate exceedingly well toward the playoffs. I worry a little bit in terms of foul trouble in the playoffs for Chet. If he gets into foul trouble, what is their combo breaker? What

is their counter? They don't really have one question mark Uh, it's going to be entirely reliant on Chet being able to play thirty five minutes a night in the playoffs. And I say that thinking Chet is their third best player, but he is probably their second most important player in

terms of playoff success, behind Shay. Now part of my thunder optimism compared to your being a thunder hater, which is what I will be referred to you as from now on, Jason Uh, I think Shay is an absolute dude, and I think he is going to be able to wreak havoc on opposing teams, and in part the reason for that is you have to guard them. Now, five out the big underrated unsung trade edition that a team made at the deadline if he can be healthy, is

Gordon Hayward. Because previously, what teams have done to kind of gum up the works for Oklahoma City on offense is play your center on Josh Giddy and then be able to try and filter toward the help in the middle and then leave Josh Giddy literally wide open from three. That's the way that teams have had success against them this season. With Gordon Hayward, you cannot do that. He

will kill you from three. He will beat you as a shooter from distance, and he's bigger than Isaiah Joe, which was their other like combo breaker counter whatever you want to call it. Isaiah I think is a smart defender, but he's somebody that you can attack a little bit

too often on defense. With Hayward, I think that you're not going to be able to attack him as much, which leads to a circumstance where they can play genuine five out offense, force all sorts of issues as you're trying to stay in front of Shay Gilges Alexander, who is the best paint touch guy in the NBA right now. I think you would probably agree with you.

is a three level scorer. I would say that the Nuggets certainly have multiple three level scorers. I would say the Clippers have three.

the floor out of ball screens and an isolation. And one of the things I noticed with James Harden is he was a guy that was gifted at beating people off the dribble, but was not a supreme athlete at his position, which is what I would describe Shay to me is a very good athlete, but he is not Anthony Edwards. Okay, he doesn't bring like incredible force to the position. He is shifty with the way that he beats people off the dribble, amazing with change of pace

and footwork and all the like kind of week. He's got kind of like a weird old fashion game in a lot of ways with his ability to beat people off the dribble with hesitations in and outs, and he's really good at protecting the basketball while making aggressive moves.

But what happened with James Harden is by game five, by game six, by game seven of a series, an elite perimeter defender would see his dribble package and see his hesitation moves dozens and dozens and dozens and dozens of times, and he just wouldn't be able to get

as much separation as the series progressed. All I'm saying is I am curious to see Shay in his first playoff series as a number one option, simply because he is a guy that relies a lot on change of pace, hesitation type of stuff to beat people off the dribble. I'm cure to see if we see an elite perimeter defender not solve him, but figure out a way to kind of slow him down a little bit. I'm just curious to see it. I personally think that Shay will

eventually solve that himself in his career. Even if he does encounter that problem, I just think he's way better then. I think he will be way better than James Harden ever was. But I just think, and that almost feels mean to say, with how good James Harden was at his prime, but I want to say I believe in Shae long term. I'm just curious to see if there will be an adjustment period with him as it pertains to playoff basketball.

and find a way into that shot. He had to get all the way to the rim, he had to rely on fouls right, Shae has the body mechanics and that shiftiness to be able to stop and pop in the mid range and be able to just shoot over the top of its tough He can create high yish not super high, but like high ish efficiency looks from the mid range in a way that James Harden really

couldn't at the end of the day. And I think that it's much harder to sit on Shay's moves in that way, particularly knowing that with Harden it was okay, I either need to sit on the step back or I need to be ready to stop him at the rim, and we need to have second body coming over. With Shae, it's I have to be available for the step back. Three. I have to be available basically at every single step along the line toward him driving to the rim. I have to be ready that he he's going to stop

and pop ahead of me. And I think that that makes it a lot more difficult to guard him than what it was to guard James in the playoffs at the end of the day, when you had seven games to adjust, throw different looks at him, throw different counters at him, and on top of it, seriously, like Jayalen Williams is waiting on the second side once the defense is bent, and he can score from all three levels too.

He's a fifty. I think he's shooting like fifty four, forty five, eighty two or something right now, So like he's a one eighty shooter on the other side, just in a different, you know, mechanical way that he's going about it in terms of the numbers. So, man, I think this is a really good team, dude, I think that it really does. I think your points are entirely valid about what do they look like in terms of

the physicality. If Check can't stay on the floor, they have a real chance to lose in the first round. That is a fact of the matter. If he proves that he can stay on the floor, I think they can make finals. Like, to me, the swing is all him, and I don't know the answer to that yet. I don't think anybody does. In terms of the way that like his game will be officiated as much as anything, like, I trust the person, like the human being to bring it.

I'm just really interested to see the way he's officiated in the play.

my number eleven, which is the Dallas Mavericks. So I'm assuming the front court player you're really high on is Daniel Gafford. I like Daniel Gafford. I think he falls a little bit into the the like I think he's better than this player for the record, but I I to me falls a little bit into the Montreze Harald type of tear, where like, he's an incredible role man who finishes on a catching rolling to the rim really well, but I get concerned about him as a pick and roll defender in particular.

necessarily even in their closing five. I am curious. I I you know, I hate that our only film I wanted to watch film and it's like the only film we get is the damn Spurs game, which just they're so easy to guard because because of their lack of legitimate ball handling. But I have them as my long shots for one very simple reason. And actually had a

question earlier. Someone gave me three teams, and I want to say it was like the Helicans, the MAVs, and then I can't remember their last team was, But I said the MAVs had the best chance to win out of that group because to me, Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are just two of the best half court shot creators in the playoffs that you could have, and so if they can find a way to defend and compete on the glass, well enough and they've been a bad

defensive rebounding team this year as well. But if they can find a way to contend in those areas, I just think it's foolish to count those guys out, and that's why I have them as long shots. But you're way higher on the MAVs, so make the case.

really like the way that this roster is built. From that perspective, I wouldn't have given up a first round pick for PJ. Washington, but he does create some flexibility for them lineup wise that I think is intriguing for what I'll talk about momentarily, they now just have a lot of different bodies that they can throw out there. They have Tim Hardaway junior. If you want like the

high volume three point scorer. They have Josh Green, who I think is a really interesting body that they can throw out there athletically on defense, who I don't know if you can leave him open from three anymore. That was kind of what I thought you would do in a place for years ago, like he's yeah, he's been consistent the last like a year and a half to where like I kind of think you might not be able to leave him totally open. I really loved the

minutes that Dante exem gave them. We'll see what happens with Dante. He has the knee injury. He hasn't played in what like three or four weeks. It feels like now if he's there, I think that he gives them

another option then in the front court. I agree with you that in the playoffs that Derek Lively I think is probably their best option, right because you can do multiple things with him in ball screens at the end of the day, whereas with Gafford, you really have to play drop, you really have to fight over the top, and their guards Luca and Kyrie are not necessarily built to fight over the top. If you are a team

that has two creators that you can trust. You'll have you know, Josh Green, whoever reguarded the point of attack right, Dante Exam as well, Derek Jones Junior potentially for minutes as well. Like, but if you have the second creator that you trust to be able to get real opportunities, that's where you make Luca and Kyrie fight over the top in gafferd screens, and that's probably gonna lead to open opportunities and looks. So I'm with you. I think

it's probably Lively that's gonna have to play. But they have forty eight minutes now if they want it of elite level rim protection and Lively in Gafford, that's the difference between Gafford in Tres In my opinion, Gafford is at least like a very good rim. He's got more length, he contests, He has more length, and he contests everything like he off into his detriment in terms of defensive rebounding, like he chases everything in terms of contesting at the basket,

So teams are gonna miss against them. And I think it's actually a little bit easier for him to chase everything when you have Luca crashing in to clean up on the defensive glass because of how good of a defensive rebounder Luca is. Now, Like you still need to get a body on guys, you still need to be able to create things that way, but Luca is so good in the playoffs. Kyrie is also incredible in the playoffs.

And I think that his season is really gone under the radar because he's missed so many games already to where he's not going to be eligible for all NBA. Kyrie right now is averaging twenty six on forty nine forty one A so good and nobody is talking so good. He has like a four and a half to one. He's like a four to one a sis turnover ratio right now. Like Kyrie has been unbelievable this season, like

to a ridiculous, ridiculous degree. I think there's like almost a case where if you're the Suns, would you rather have Luca and Kyrie or Devin Booker and Kevin Durant given how good Luca has been this season.

Totally understand why everyone was frustrated that was super annoying the year before when he just left his family or left the team to go be with his family or whatever the hell he was doing. Totally understand what he did to Cleveland, Totally understand what he did to Boston, Totally understand what happened at the end of Brooklyn was super obvious. He had a falling out with the front office and he wanted a new deal. That was what

he was trying to do. So like, I was pretty pretty certain that he would be focused when he was in Dallas for that specific reason, and when he's in a situation where the contract isn't hanging over his head, and you know, I have a feeling that, at least within the context of this season, that that was never going to be an issue. And he's been awesome, I do. What's I get a little worried about Dallas with who their best five is, So like if I'm if I'm Dallas. Obviously,

we talked about Derek Lively as the five. To me, I kind of lean Josh Green for more physical matchups, maybe at Tim Hardaway Junior against teams where you really need more shoot, But that four spot is the interesting

one to me. Would you would you rather go with like a guy like Derek Jones Junior who's like a really solid perimeter defender who's actually been a decent kind of like weak side kind of slasher off the wing and has done some good stuff for them offensively, or would you go with PJ Washington at the four.

This is kind of the other thing that I think is a little bit interesting about Dallas what their moves did at the deadline, is it allowed them to play big with Lively and Gafford for forty eight minutes at the five spot, or it allowed them to go small. You can downsize and you can go like Maxi Kleba, PJ Washington at the four or five, and you can still have like requisite size intelligence out there with Maxi. Hopefully Maxie knocks down threes and hopefully Maxi like stays healthy.

He's had issues with that of obviously over the course of the last couple of years. But you have a lot of different front court lineup variations to where if you need to shut down, if you need to switch ball screens and shut down things, you can go PJ and Maxie at the four and the if you want

to play drop or something like that. PJ is not going to be good at drop, but you can have Maxi rotating over from the weak side and at least be like a presence there as a good, intelligent, tall, high end defender, and then you go five out around Luca. Luca likes having the lob threat. He likes having the downhill body that can also like gortat screen for him

as he's like navigating the paint and everything. But like their optionality in the front court, like some of these other teams, I think they don't have enough options, Like Phoenix does not have enough options around their stars to be able to get the most out of their stars if something goes on a wire right Oklahoma City, to an extent, they fixed it with Hayward a little bit, but largely they don't have enough optionality behind Chet if something was to go wrong, or like if they were

counting on Josh Giddy to play like twenty five minutes a game the playoffs. Right Dallas to me actually has optionality because they have two way players. PJ is an entirely theoretical two way player in my opinion, but there's a chance that he could be that he's shown the wherewithal to do it, especially in on ball settings in the past, Josh Green can be a two way player. If you get a hot shooting night from Derek Jones Junior, he could be a two way player for a night.

Dante exem has been like a pretty solid two way player throughout the course of the season. And then you have Gafford and Lively, both of whom are two way players in the context of what Dallas asks them to do within their offense, being a screen role rim run guy, being screen role rim run guys. Whereas these other teams I think are inflexible. I actually think Dallas is a little bit more flexible in how they can surround their stars with talent and let those guys be great.

the position. But even Jim Hardaway, for all of his flaws, he can move, you know, like he maxically but is a is a very mobile big guy. PJ. Washington very mobile,

Derek Lively very mobile, Daniel Gafford very mobile. Like they all of a sudden have a lot of to your point, it's a lot of guys who theoretically could be good defensively, and that's what kind of gets you to the situation where you can kind of see a path, which is like, as long as Jason Kidd kind of touched the right notes about who those other three guys are depending on the matchup, as long as Luca and Kyrie bring the requisite superstar shot creation, you have a chance to beat

really anybody. You've You've definitely raised my opinion of the MAVs through this conversation, but I'm not surprised you've done that before. Let's go quickly through these last bits of our.

of the lineup. You make some really good points about the matchup with Minnesota in particular. You know what's interesting too, Last thing I'll say about it. You had talked about like the Lakers coming from the seven seed, and I in general don't think there's an easy matchup anywhere in the West. From the same point of like, like let's say you're the one seed. Yeah, if you're the one seed.

If you're let's say that the Timberwolves run away with it, they get the one seed, Like, you're probably gonna have to face Golden State or the Lake in the first round. Like that's not an easy matchup, you know, Like you're not going it's not easy, but you're not going into that matchup saying like you're not going into that matchup like it's easy. Okay, So you win, you you play the winner of Denver Phoenix, you know, and then like if you win that, you play the winner of Okay,

see the Clippers. So like, I don't really look at seating as as as as important. It's more just the home court advantage piece I think is a big differentiator. But yeah, like I agree with you, like, like the maps are going to present some real matchup problems for teams just just with the sheer amount of looks that they can go with. That's a really interesting take. I at number twelve had the Miami Heat. I love the Miami Heat, But once again, I think they're a great

upset candidate for teams that are flawed. I think they're a good championship like security station, where like, if you don't get through Miami, you're clearly not a championship contender anyway, because like they'll just expose you for the sh you're bad at. I love the Delon Wright pick up. I think that's a guy that can help them. I do think they'll get more out of Terry Roseier god willing, if hell his knee can get right, I do think they'll get more out of him than what they've gotten.

But I do think there's a little bit of a good status bad team thing going on with Terry Rozier, at least as an offensive shot creator, which which I think you've seen some of the early returns of this year with Miami. I just again just don't think they have the firepower. But I do think they've got the capability of upsetting anybody just simply on the strength of Spolstra, Jimmy Bam and some of the backcourt athleticism that they've added.

ends up being coming down the stretch here. If they get to the six and Milwaukee ends up the three or something like that, that could be just like really really fun.

think health has played a role. I think it's been a combination of him leaning a little bit too much on the jump shot in postseason settings and then two in him not being able to hit it when he gets there, and then the health I think has been

a legitimate issue for him. But in terms of the six Ers overall, I look at it like I do think that Tyres Masey it's a lot to ask for him to be the second best player on a championship team in this phase of his career, and I run into a little bit of like a do they having a firepower type of discussion? Would they be able to weather a Joel embiide clunker, you know, in a big moment that you know is something that he's has the

potential to kind of deal with. And really, ever since Jimmy Butler has been out of the equation, I haven't felt like they've had that type of guy, you know what I mean. And so I'm high on the Sixers in the long run. I thought that Daryl Moray did a really nice job with the James Harden trade. I was actually surprised with how much he got back, not just in usable players, but also in just draft compensation. And I thought Daryl Mory did a really good job there.

I think they're poised for another big move to kind of address some of their firepower issues in the long run. But like to me, even if they were fully healthy, I would have had him pretty far down on this list. But under the circumstances, the idea of Embi coming back for the end of the year, just getting in rhythm and time to kick everybody's but just felt like a long shot to me.

a game in the playoffs. And his like that second year, that twenty twenty two year, he shot forty eight thirty eight ninety four on twenty one points a night in the playoffs. I think ty Rees might be fine in the playoffs. Is where what I'm getting at here. If he's able to not be the number one, if he's able to be the number two behind Joell. I love

the Buddy Heeled edition for them. If Joe else healthy, it creates so many problems for opposing teams on the backside of those empty side pick and roll actions they like to run with ty Reese. If you just put Buddy in the corner of those actions, most teams like to pre rotate from the corner in order to help those in order to help on the empty side roll. If you put him in the corner, your team can't

pre rotate. That means you're pre rotating from the wing, which means that then you're able to kick to the wing in all likelihood, and then you have either the corner man lifting, which is Buddy's guy, or you have top of the key that's helping, which is just an easy reversal, and then you're basically back into the action again with one more pass. Right, So like it flows

into itself really well. And that's even just like not accounting for you could do some fucking wild stuff with like Joel and Buddy and like five two ballscreen like slip actions. Right, you could do some crazy stuff with like Maxi healed speed action, like you could run some like twenty one actions where like Buddy is you know, you're running like empty side with Buddy like ghosting in just like the wing, Like you could just do so so much, you could do exactly right, you could do

so so much with them. I think that Buddy is a real schematic addition for them in a playoff setting, in my opinion, even with the defensive liabilities that he brings to the table, I just don't trust that Joelle is going to be healthy enough to see any of it.

I am a big believer in Tyree. I just think I think it's a lot to ask for a guy in his first year being the number one and by the way, to me, number two option doesn't mean as much when you factor in the fact that he's gonna get the number one perimeter defender, like he's going to get the best perimeter defender that the other team has to offer. I am, I again, just huge believer in Tyres Maxie long run. But like, guys, just think of it like this, he's Tyler Harrow's age, He's Jordan Poole's age.

Like he's young, he's got there's there, there's there's something to be said about about like if there's if there's been a theme that you guys have picked up for me on this today's show. It's like Jason hates the youth. But I I am a believer in Tyree's long run. In the long run, I am a believer that Joel Embiide will eventually break through. Just doesn't feel like this is going to be the year. So is there anybody

that's the end of my list? Is there any team that you had on your list that I didn't have?