Hoops Tonight - NBA Contender Rankings: Nuggets & Celtics top list, Clippers elite, Bucks dangerous

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Happy Tuesday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. We have a very special show today, a podcast I've been looking forward to for a long time, ever since I got into an argument with Sam on the phone the other day. Sam Vassini from the Athletic covers the NBA good friend of mine, a person who's been very important to me as have been beginning this journey into this industry, someone who's more of a grizzled

vet who can help guide me along the way. But in addition to that, is also one of the smartest basketball minds that I talked to, someone that I learned from every single time we talk. And we were talking the other day and we got into an argument about who would win a playoff series between the Thunder and the Lakers if it started tomorrow, and it was passioned, it was heated, and finally we were like, dude, we just got to get on a podcast and we got

to hash out all the contenders. And also, I kind of view this stretch right after the All Star break as the kind of like the halfway point, not in the regular season, but kind of between where we start in training camp to someone hoisting the trophy in June. And so I thought today would be the perfect time for us to really take a closer look at our list of contenders. And so, without any further ado, Sam, how are you, man. It's good to see you. How's your year going cover in the league.

them in the playoffs last year. But I think that at the end of the day, the mobiley Allen combination is going to be really, really difficult to manage in the playoffs for the Cavs. I think there are too many schematic disadvantages. And I really worry about the defensive side as well. Even though they've been elite defensively, I do worry that you can really take advantage of the Garland Mitchell backcourt in a real.

wing forward position has been super valuable. But again, everything to me comes down to the Mobley Allen front court, and I thought people kind of got off the scent a little bit last year with the focus on shooting. Not that shooting isn't an important element to this team's ability to have success in pick and roll and stop teams from guarding at three on two, but to me, it has more to do with Evan Mobley's offensive development and the simple fact that, especially in the short role,

he's just not very good. I've advocated even for swapping it and just having Jared Allen run the short roles and having Evan Mobley kind of operate more the dunker

spot to try to mix it up. But the bottom line is is like, when you start to really get to me, The Cleveland Cavaliers are an extremely well coached team that plays extremely hard, that thrives in these middle portions of the season when effort and energy kind of waxes and wanes more for other teams, And so I think they're nowhere near as good as their record, and I gave them no chance. My second one was the New Orleans Pelicans. I don't think they have a real chance to win the title.

I think his game translates well there weirdly, but it's still the combination of brandon Ingram in Zion. They've been running these point Zion combinations from time to time that I think have been somewhat effective, but I still don't love the fit between the two of those guys. I still think they haven't figured out how to elevate each other in a way that makes them better than what

their singular skills are. And this team just frankly, is not talented enough compared to the top teams in the league. That's the reality, and it's going to be difficult for them, I think, to come up with lineup combinations in the front court, in the back court in ways that allow you to defend and score in the playoffs. They're a team filled with one way players right now.

They've got a lot of guys like that you think of as you know, driving kick guys that can but that on the other end, can also compete on the perimeter, like we've seen the Pelicans beat really good teams before, where they lock in on the perimeter and they're driving kicking you to death on the other end of the floor, and specifically like like using Zion a lot. Zion has been playing a lot better as of late, getting guys like CJ. McCollum attacking closeouts more rather than constantly operating

and pick and roll. I've seen a lot of good from them, but to me, like there's not there. There isn't this one big draw. It's like, do I think they defend at a championship level? No?

defensive issue. And for as good as Demanda Sabonis has been this season, for as incredible as the combination between he and Daron Fox has been, I really need to see it from them in the playoffs at the end of the day before I trust them. That feels like, you know, TV talking point ish. But the way that Kevon Looney was able to minimize his impact on that series last year really kind of sticks in my head

in a negative way. It's the same with the Cavs, Like Jared Allen like got his ass kicked last year by Mitchell Robinson in that playoff series. And Jared Allen is probably one of the most underrated players in the NBA at this point during regular season competition. He's a huge part of why they've been successful. It's kind of the same with the Kings, Like I thought that Kevon Looney marginally compared to what their commensurate values are to

their team. You know, Demount Sumo has played better than Kavon Lune. He did in that series, but I thought Cavan got the better of him compared to what they needed from each of those players in that series. So it's hard for me to get that out of my mind, and it's hard for me to imagine they're going to defend it a level high enough to.

You know, it's funny because we've seen this a lot in the NBA history, where like Kevin Love was this really good post up folkrum pick and pop folkrum in the regular season, and then he'd get to the postseason and he'd get his butt kicked by a big, strong forward, or like Julius Randall's kind of this kind of guy too, Like that that big forward who's not really exceptionally athletically gifted, but that relies on a lot of bully ball but isn't necessarily the best touch, or that kind of guy

can cut sometimes struggle when they run into super physical environments. And I tend to agree, like, what's you look at the Kings. I was pulling these numbers the other day.

When they defend, they win, that's the crazy part. Like when they defend, they win, and when they don't, they're not good and offensively, they're not good enough offensively to just simply outscore teams, And that has ended up being the issue more often than not, Like like they'll have a night like they did against the Nuggets the other night where they can really defend and they have perimeter talent to actually they have enough speed on the perimeter

to actually be pretty good in rotation and to be pretty good at the point of attack when they want to be. But it's just never been a consistent and it's it's crazy too with Mike Brown as the coach that that hasn't become more of an identity for them in the long run. The last team I had on this list was the Indiana Pacers. I love Tyrese Halliburton. He's legitimately, in my opinion, like a transcendently great offensive player.

I think some of his recent struggles are more just classic soft tissue stuff, like you come back from a hammy, you don't really take that aggressive step like you normally do. Like I think, I tend to think that he's on that trajectory to be the next like truly great offensive engine. And I think the Siakam fit is beautiful. There love everything about it. I just I just think within the scope of this season, they're not physically imposing enough or good enough in any unit to win the title.

recover a little bit. I agree with you in terms of the soft tissue thing. He just hasn't quite been there. But I believe in him in big moments, as we saw during the nd season tournament. I think that super skill, super decision making, great shooting. Those skills translate to the highest level, and I think that he'll be great in the settings in the playoffs. I do worry a little

bit about just for this season, not long term. This season, the synergy between he and Siakam and trying to figure out the ways to make their defense at the highest level it possibly can be with Siakam and Turner in the front court, that synergy is just missing a little bit right now. Maybe they can get it there by

the time that April rolls around. I don't know that they would be like a zero percent chance to meet just in case the Siakam Turner thing like turns into being able to hold up their defense on their shoulders in a substantial way. But I think you're safe to keep them out of this conversation just for now. I do think though, that there are some interesting schematic advantages that they can create both in the half court and with their transition opportunities in the full court.

at all for the previous four years that he'd been there. Right, That led to him being in the mid post and Yaka pertl being willing to like short roll into that middle like area at the foul line extent. And then you have Scotty Barnes who loves to operate in that area as well, and it led to a condensed difficult court to deal with with Miles Turner, who can go out and space the floor in a semi real way.

Like teams don't ignore him out there. They tend to at least try to get a late close out on him when he shoots threes and picking pops and when he spaces to the corner. I think that they can really operate in an intriguing way using Pascal Siakam Tyre's Halliburton you know one four ball screens. The thing though, that I think they're going to miss for this season particularly, and this speeds into the idea of their kind of

pieces around these guys. Buddy Heald was a sneaky, really important thing for them, just schematically he didn't have his best season this year for whatever reason, but the way that they would utilize him in the gravity that he possessed around the court for the Pacers. I mean Tyre's Halliburton, Like he said this as soon as they moved him.

He's played basically every game of his career up until you know the trade deadline with Buddy held on the court, and the level of spacing that Heal creates because you have to stay attached to him at all times across the court is so essential. It is so so dangerous for an opposing team. It's why I love the Buddy Heeld acquisition for the Philadelphia seventy six ers. Like, we'll

talk about that when we get to the seventy six ers. Maybe, but I wonder if we get some diminishing returns more than what people expect by the Pacers moving Healed, and maybe that might be the best case for you, thinking that they're a no chance team. The fact that they moved a guy that is actually like a really important schematic cog for them in the playoffs. The fact they moved him is really going to hinder what they do.

But long term, I think Matherin, they really like Ben Mathurin, they really like Jaris Walker, they actually really really like Andrew Nemhart as well. I mean, I'm not gonna sit here and say that, Like they think Nemhart is a long term starter necessarily, but they love having Nemhards, Like you're either your fifth man out on the court, you're sixth man something like that. A guy that takes on tougher defensive assignments from time to time, makes great decisions,

can shoot it a little bit. They liked a lot of their younger pieces, and I think they'll be aggressive trying to go out and get the final piece next to their Haliburton, Siakham Turner core. But beyond that, I think it remains to be seen where they'll go. The big piece of the Siacam deal, though, is that they didn't move any of Matherin, Jarris Walker, Andrew Nemhart, and thus they still have assets to move in order to fill out that roster around them.

to guard that specific action. I do understand it from the big picture of like a big picture you can't have a Haliburton heel, but backcourt, you just can't, like there's not enough that you're not good enough defensively in my opinion, at the point of attack in terms of a big picture goal for that type of situation, ideally you're hoping for a guy like Ben Mathin to kind of develop into a better defender than he has been, and he's been really bad. But anyway, we spent enough

time on these lower level teams. I just I wanted to kind of get that fleshed out, just from the same point of the way we kind of constructed our lists the way this is the way that I'm going to do it, and who knows how the hell this will go. So we're just gonna we're just gonna try and see what happens. I have my list and I'm

going to go through one at a time. Sam's going to tell me whether or not he agrees, and if he disagrees, he's going to tell me whether or not that team should be higher or lower, and he'll give the case for why my first tier is bonafide traditional top tier contenders. These are teams that, in my opinion, check all of the boxes that you hope to have checked for a team that typically will go on to win the title. Number One, I have the Denver Nuggets.

I think they're by far the best combination of half court offense and defense that we know translates to the playoff setting. The record is not as bad as it looks when you factor in how much time Jamal Murray has missed. As a matter of fact, they're twenty eight to twelve when Jamal Murray has played. That's a seventy percent win percentage. That's basically what the Minnesota Timberwolves have been.

They've definitely had some kind of like flat efforts this year where they've gone out and just been blitzed for whatever reason, But that, to me is kind of a typical part of being the target on your back, defending champ type of type of situation. The bench is an issue, but it was an issue last year, Like they were around eleven points negative net with Jokic off the floor last year. They're around eleven points negative net without Jokic

this year, according to Cleaning the Glass. So like, I think hyper focusing on that misses the point that it was literally a non issue in the postseason. Last year, they just scaled the minutes up and they were so dominant that it never ended up being an issue. So to me, like I'll actually place it a little bit more aggressively. If the Nuggets starting five is healthy, I would I would be surprised if they didn't win the title.

That's how confident I am in this team. So I'm curious, even if you have the Nuggets at one, you could at least tell me if you don't view them as strongly as I do.

They've played tougher schedule than any of those teams. So when you look at the record, plus they've had the Murray injury, I'm not concerned about what their record looks like right now. I think they're going to be one hundred percent fine once the playoffs hit. My only concern for Denver is they didn't make a real move at the deadline, obviously, and this team still does not have

amazing depth. If somebody was to go down, if a even like if a Contavious Caldwell Pope or an Aaron Gordon goes down, I do worry a little bit about, you know, elevating somebody like Christian Brown or Peyton Watson into the starting lineup and then having to replace those you know, let's call it like twenty minutes that one of those two provide with somebody like deep on their bench, that I really would have like concerns about in a playoff setting. So that I think is the one point

of contention. But if we're starting to get into concerns about that, that's the sign of an elite team, a truly fantastic basketball team. They have the best player in the world in NICOLEA. Jokic. They have constructed a roster. Calvin Booth has done a fantastic job building an organization that fits around their best player to the nth degree. He elevates everybody. They elevate themselves beyond what they're capable of.

I think Jamal Murray when he's been on the court this season has been outstanding and was all star quality. So I have no real concerns about the Denver Nuggets outside of potentially even if one of their starting quality non star players gets hurt, what does that look like in terms of their lineup flexibility in the playoffs?

Like to put it, simply, like the some, their actual tangible greatness so far supersedes the some of their parts, and to his credit, they he just constructed, in my opinion, a perfectly complimentary starting five.

I have one hundred percent agree with you. Here's the thing. If the Celtics lust kersops porzingis, what would you say, they fundamentally become a significantly lesser team. If they lost Derek White, they fundamentally become a significantly lesser team. Yet, like go to the Timberwolves. It's like, if they lose Jayden McDaniels, fundamentally lesser team. Mike Conley is so important to them in their half court execution, fundamentally lesser team.

The Clippers, you take any of their core guys, Terrence Man out, all of a sudden, it's a whole lot more Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook. You take you know, Paul George out, you take James Hard and now you get the points. So like I do think that even though I agree with you that I don't think the Nuggets starting five can withstand an injury really to anybody in that group.

just you just have a better chance. Peyton Watson, he's gotten good at that slot, cut out out of the weak side wing and moving along the baseline, like he's learned how to play off the ball, but he just isn't the same level of Like Michael Porter Junior is one of the best off ball players the entire league, so like he's even a very good offensive rebounder. Like like I to me, to me, all five of those guys are a vital importance and so yeah, like I I agree that they have a lack of depth, but

I just don't think that that necessarily. I just think it's unfair to nitpick that without necessarily pointing out that the same exists for any of these other teams. So I think the perfect way to transition this here is to go to my number two, which is the Boston Celtics, And I guess let's start with this, Like I think a Celtics Nuggets finals is pretty likely. I think it's pretty likely. Uh I, So in that matchup, I think.

the rim that way. Uh. Jalen Brown like can be a real paint touch guy. I would say he's there one, But like Drew Holliday is thirty three, thirty four years old, at this point hasn't really been that guy the last couple of years. Derek White has never been like a super high end paint touch guy. Christoph Sporzingis has always been a perimeter big. It kind of does line up

to me in terms of that. But I also can see why this would be a concern because we've seen, you know, in general, the last couple of years under Joe Mazzula, their late game offense has been a slog from time to time. The ability to get a paint touch is a real combo breaker, a counter breaker, which is why we'll talk about the Thunder and this is what people I think are waiting for after your intro. Why I do like the Thunder in some way with their late game offense to be able to consistently get

interesting looks. The Celtics have struggled to consistently get interesting looks. The Timberwolves this year another team that has struggled to consistently get good looks around around the rim, certainly from different scenarios in late game situations. So that would be my one concern with Boston. Can they consistently find late game offense that works for them. We need to also call it out too. This is a truly elite offense. I mean they have like a one to twenty two

offensive raiding right now. They are elite on that end because Jason Tatum is incredible. Jason Tatum's pull up game has really shifted over the course of I would say, what the last month and a half or so, he's been outstanding knocking down pull up threes. I think he's at like thirty nine percent like the start of January something like that with pull up threes. That really transforms

their potential on offense in late game situations. Having the spacing of Christaps Porzingis has totally transformed everything that they can do on the offensive en in addition to being able to play big with Porzingis and Al Horford and be able to guard a lot of different things, stay big on defense while having five out spacing, which is so important to what they want to do. Yeah. Look, I love the Celtics. I think they've been fantastic this season.

I would have them, you know, number two, number three, I basically have them like two to a right now. With the team we're going to talk about momentarily here a defend at the point of attack at a super high level. They can play big, they're flexible lineup wise. Again, they're just not that deep and probably can't withstand much in terms of injuries. But yeah, the Celtics are an elite team and they are clearly the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference right now.

for them. You know, they've got guys that can beat mismatches out of the post They've got guys that can beat mismatches out of ISO. They can play driving kick basketball. The thing, the big thing that I'm gonna be watching with them down the stretch of the season, because like they have like an incredibly easy schedule down the stretch. They're pretty tough here for the next few weeks and then it lightens up basically the rest of the way. They are already six games up on the rest of

the Eastern Conference. There are four games up on Minnesota for the number one overall seed. They have some slush here to like really treat the last twenty something games as almost like as almost like a testing ground for a lot of stuff I'd like to see them work on.

scoring the basketball in this small sample. What I mean by that is they've had games where they go broke and they look like shit, and a big part of and a big part of it, like just recently in this last month, it's like the Clippers game, it's the Nuggets game. It's like these big, high profile games where it just seems like none of the shots can fall and so might.

about them. We'll see. But when it comes to the way that they've configured their offense, like for instance, like Tatum is shooting the pull up jump shot better, but he we're talking like forty five percent of his shot diet his pull up jump shots, Like that's a hefty chunk of his like, and when you factor in that he's taken a few catch and shoot jumpers every game, like more than half of his game is jump shooting.

And this is a guy that I agree with you that that's kind of who he is as a player. I agree, But this is also one of the most physically gifted forwards we have in the league.

He either needs to be that guy or he needs to be able to get to the rim in the way they it's.

They lead the league in three point shots attempted. As I mentioned earlier, they're twenty seventh in points in the paint per game. It has added a huge element of variance to the way they play, and so as a result of that, they are capable of having games. And I know that like a lot of the analytics guys just agree with me on this, but I do believe

that shooting is contagious. I do believe that like when a team starts missing, it gets in the head of the team and like everyone starts to kind of get tight and their hands get sweaty and like.

I'm pretty high on. We'll talk about in a little bit, or a big game in the in the finals against the Nuggets where it's like or against the Clippers or somebody like that where it's like they miss five or six in a row and it's like it almost they almost start to get a little hesitant, but they don't

have this other punch that they can go to. So I just want to see I would love to see over these last twenty something games, like just an attempt to add more versatility to the way they attack on offense.

you know, whatever it is. You got to do something to just kind of like almost bake in a physical aggression to the the beginning of their offensive possessions, because then from there it might call it because then you might still get catch and shoot threes. But they'll they'll at least come out of an attempt to get the ball into the paint first. I would just like to see them try that, to me, would be a big uh like thing. I'm gonna be keeping an eye on

here down the stretch. Did you have any other thoughts on the Celtics before we move on?

had previously. Now, like we'll talk about the major factor with the Clippers here momentarily, but like I'll let you kind of take the lead on where you want to go with that conversation.

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Visit eBay dot com for term. So this next tier, I have titled teams hitting traditional championship benchmarks, but that have playoff question marks, and so that to me is where I have the Clippers. The big question marks I have for the Clippers are kind of similar to someones that I have for other teams, Like they're not a good defensive rebounding team. That to me is another kind of like hallmark. We're gonna I pulled some stats for you.

I'm prepped for a thunder argument, Sam, Just wait, I've pulled some stats about defensive rebounding in recent NBA champions and so there's some concerning stuff there. They're not a good defensive rebounding team. They they are actually a better paint attacking team than you'd think the Clippers are actually fifteenth and points in the paint per one hundred possessions. I do think they have more scoring resiliency in the sense that, like, I just think they're a better like

type of they play. In my opinion, they take a lot of the same shots that Boston does, although fewer threes, but they're just better at it. They're better at playing that brand of basketball. I think in terms of like that slow down half court environment. They're top five in both half court offense and defense. That's usually a big hallmark for a championship contender. There's sixth in clutch net rating.

That's another hallmark for a championship contender. And again, like you mentioned to me, let's just put it this way, Kaui is a better player than Tatum.

I'm really really high on the Clippers too. Again, it really just comes down to for me, and again, I'm not even gonna talk about healthier. The only thing it really comes down to for me is like they're a bad defensive rebounding team. They do take a lot of pull up jumpers and we have seen them go cold like they did against Denver in twenty twenty, although it was a long time ago. Other thing, too, is a really bad transition defense. But I feel like I'm being

kind of nitpicky. You're high on the Clippers. Tell us for you? Tell us why I should say?

revolves around the health on some level. In the four years that they have had Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, they are a plus twelve per one hundred possessions. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard share the court. That is NBA title worthy. That is elite of the elite of the elite. These guys, when they take the court together, the Clippers win games. They are fantastic. To me, I've loved everything that they've seen. You bring up James Harden.

The key is that when he was the point guard and the number two option on the Philadelphia seventy six ers last season, their primary action was they were going to try and run a one to five ball screen with Joel, and Joel was going to pop into the mid range. Maybe sometimes it'd been empty. Maybe sometimes James would be trying to get to his pull up jumper. You know, there'd be different machinations of it. James does

not have to be the primary guy this year. James can be a combo breaker for them if for whatever reason they are able to an opposing team is able

to shut down Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. You can't really shut down Kawhi Leonard at this point in my opinion, but like if a team is able to make his life more difficult, well not enough teams have three legitimate point of attack defenders with size and with quickness to be able to cause problems for all of these guys, which means you can just go into like one to five ball screen with James Harden and if Vitza Zoo Bots and then have Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and somebody

like Norman Powell who's been elite of the elite of the elite in spot up situations this season surrounding him, and you can play five out and that's going to be able to create all sorts of problems that way, And that's like your second or third option, right. They have so many different ways to be able to attack a defense. That's why they have a top three offense in the NBA and why it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the year. They actually have the

best offense in the NBA. As long as these guys stay healthy, I think they are the most dangerous offensive team. On top of it, I think Kawhi has been better than what we've seen in the last couple of years defensively this season, Paul George remains an elite defender who can handle point of attack situations, getting over the top of screens using his length disrupt actions that way you mentioned.

Terrence Man can obviously do that. They use him a lot more than they use Paul George in that scenario. But I think Paul, if you get him going in the playoffs, he's going to be able to do that. The only issue, like you said, is the size one. I am with you. I have worries about the fact that Zubots is really their size based counter, and like I actually don't know what their counter is to Zubots right now. That is my number one worry. What do

they do if they have to go small? I actually don't really know what like a small lineup looks like for them, given that PJ. Tucker has been like m Ia here for the recent while.

harden Uh trade. But look, I mean it probably plays like a small role in it, like as a potential option, But I think much more it's you know, to have him as a ten million dollar expiring for the offseason when they don't have like a crazy number of contracts that they can do, like, honestly, is their best small lineup something crazy like James harden Kawhi, Paul George, like Powell Man, or even like like is it like Russ given his ability to go up tempo and like try

and beat opposing teams down the court, Like do you involve him in your best small lineup? They don't have like a great answer.

least they were like longer, if that makes sense. But at the same time, like Zubach is, like Zubach is on the short list of guys that like you'd love to have for a matchup with Yokic like as well, like so so like, yeah, I love this Clippers team. I love their character too. They just they have they

they just give me championship vibes. And that's why I put them in that That's why I titled that tier like hitting championship benchmarks, because like, I think there are a lot of teams, especially in the modern NBA uh that like I don't want to say cut corners, but that that view the regular season is almost unnecessary.

of like truly physically imposing perimeter defense and or improtection. Specifically, I love their I love the matchup versatility that an Ant and a Jaden McDaniels gives you, in the sense that like Jaden McDaniels brings this like lank that is like oppressive, but then Ant brings this like fire hydrant you could never get past me strength and like hands,

the physicality at the permitterve. I love that they can like kind of play with those matchups a little bit because like certain offensive players like are really good at shooting over the top and the fire hydrant guys don't really bother them. And then like there are certain offensive players that like are bothered by length more and so like you can kind of like play with that a little bit. My main red flag with the Timberwolves is

I really have hated their crunch time offense as of late. Yes, And you know it's funny because like you talk to Timberwolves fans and like, we're a top ten half corn or we're a good half court offense. Like Mike Conley, you know, organizes us and we've you know, Anthony Edwards is sending me superstardom, and I buy into all that.

Like I'm a huge Anthony Edwards guy. I love Mike Conley, but like, to me, because Mike Conley's not overly aggressive at the end of games, Like generally speaking, it comes down to decision making from Ant who's very very young, and Carl Towns, who's iffy decision maker, and I think

that that ends up being the issue. Now they've they dropped a game in crunch time against the Bulls the other night or about a week and a half ago, where it looked exactly like all the things I'm telling you about, and then they won four straight where they kicked everyone's ass and there wasn't even any crunch time games, And I remember teams used to be concerned about like the Lakers in twenty twenty and their half court offense and their ability to execute, and then guess what, their

defense was so damn good they just it didn't matter and they were able to win. And so I still think the Timberwolves are very much in that tier of teams that I think have a real chance to win at all. But like like we mentioned earlier, if I saw them lose, that's what it would look like. I think it would come down to half court execution. Where are you at with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

the Nuggets or somebody like that. Right, I still don't totally know what that's going to look like from a half court defensive perspective when teams look to specifically attack Rudy Gobert and Carl Towns in mismatched situations. In those scenarios, now having both of them is really valuable. But like the Clippers, for instance, who does Carl Towns guard on the Clippers in a fully healthy series?

it has been tremendously successful defensively this season. I look, I think Rudy is Rudy's reputation defensively in the playoffs is probably a little bit overblown in terms of his effectiveness. But again, like that Clippers team like really did show kind of the benchmark for how to cause problems for him when he was playing in Utah playing five out. If you can play five out, it causes some problems. Now the Clippers don't have the wherewithal to play five out,

as we just discussed, which is valuable. But like, I have the Timberwolves a little bit lower, and you're gonna like laugh at the team that I have ahead of the Timberwolves in the West. It's it's not the thunder. We'll make them once we get to them.

And I think Anthony Edwards is like a total stud that is probably like a year away, but if it came a year early, I wouldn't be surprised. The key is the decision making, like you said, but sorry, I wanted to get that out there.

don't have any other teams on that tier. But it sounds like you have multiple. So before we go any further, what teams do you have that are in what you consider to be like that real championship winning a capability tier.

So and that to me, like, you know, people always make fun of Tatum for relying on a ton of pull up jump shots, and it's kind of in that camp to where like a considering his physical gifts, there's a huge portion of his shot diet that is kind of difficult, which always has been. But yeah, like you can't write out the possibility of him making making them. So my next tier is teams that are missing traditional championship benchmarks, but you can see a legitimate pathway to

the title for them. And the first team I have on this tier at number five is the Milwaukee Bucks. And it's really this simple. They they they cannot score the they cannot score the basketball since Doc Rivers has taken over.

always the case when you're watching Denver last year. It was like there's like, oh, their defense is kind of mediocre, but like, hey man, this is like a potentially an all time great offense, you know what I mean. And so that's kind of the way I look at like them missing the benchmark is like they don't have good defensive personnel. They're not a good defensive team, and they're not like they don't have an elite unit that you look at as like the driving force behind their championship.

them at the top of your tier? Do you have them lower or are the bucks for you?

it since January fifteenth, they're twelfth in defense. Like the defense, you know, I know it's not been great vibes wise since Doc got there, but like the defense has gotten better from the catastrophic levels it was at early in the season. Particularly offensively, I really think that there is a shot they just figure this thing out. Like truly, at the end of the day, they have a top

five offense in the league. The Yiannis Damian Lillard combination is more offensive star power than I don't know how many teams can match that at the end of the day, it is precious few. I would say Denver can match it. I would say the Clippers can match it. I don't know. Like I think that they probably enter the series against Boston with a better top two than what Boston has.

Absolutely I trust Yeah, It's just that I trust Boston's rest of the core pieces much much more than I trust Milwaukee's, And honestly, like I think that Pat Beverly solves some things for them in terms of like constructing playoff lineups that could be beneficial. I'm not going to sit here and say Patrick Beverly is like a thirty minute per game guy in the playoffs at this point

in his career. I don't believe that necessarily at thirty five years old, but I think that having him around really does present more opportunity for them to create coherent lineups that can defend at the point of attack, which is what they desperately, desperately need. You can't go into a playoff series having Malik Beasley as your primary defensive option. Like, it's just not gonna work. It just is not the reality of playoff basketball. At the end of the day.

You know, Chris Middleton's kind of dealing with like a little ankle injury heading into the deadline or heading into All Star break, and hopefully he's able to get back to one hundred percent. I think he's been better since his start to the season at least, you know, it's been a little bit hit or miss. But they're gonna

enter the series. They're gonna enter any series in the East with the best one two punch, and that gives them a better punchers chance than I think anybody else has, even if they're at a real coaching disadvantage in the playoffs, which I think, unfortunately for Doc, has been proven time and time again ever since he won that title in Boston.

it's like if you're just taking playoff players. To me, and the one that's oh, the Clippers, the Clippers, I don't think Paul George necessarily the top fifteen player, do you?

So like that that to me, Like to me, Jamal Murray was like a top five winning impact player in the postseason last year because of what he did in his role. This dude was like a thirty I can't remember the exact numbers, but he was like he was making shots at a bona fide superstar. Like what he did last year in the postseason is every bit as impactful as what Kyrie Irving did for the Cavs in

twenty sixteen. Sands the gigantic performance in Game five in Game seven, like like the like in terms of like value in a role. Like no one actually thought Kyrie was a top five player in twenty sixteen or two I fifteen, but his fit next to Lebron with the Calves in the playoff setting brought a winning impact that was of similar ilk to some of the stars of the league. So that would be the case. But I'll allow it in the sense that we'll say the Clippers too. So that's five teams.

It's it's one of five teams in the league that can stay definitively they have two of the best twenty t playoff players in the league. The Clippers, the Nuggets, the Bucks, the Lakers, and the Suns, And so to me,

that's the Bucks. Thing that they bring to the table is like what if Damon Giannis figured out now on the Bucks front, this is like what I'm noticing on tape is like I think we all pled forever for Giannis to be more of a screen and roll guy, and like he just never really did it until Dame came to town at the volume that he's doing it now.

And you know, as much as Giannis is a great I shouldn't say great, As much as Giannis has become a good passer in terms of, like in his ISOs and post ups at like drawing attention and making these plays, I actually think he hasn't been that great as a screen and roll guy this year in terms of like his decision making and his ability to interpret the defense. I think he's I don't think he's doing a good

enough job screening. I don't think that as a team they're actually organizing the floor well enough to get him into a situation where he can make easier reads. In a weird way, the Dame yanis pick and roll not being as productive as you would hope. I think it's been on both of them. I think it's been on Dame not doing a good enough job just being the offensive threat you need to get the panic coverages that you need to kind of generate the really easy role opportunities.

But I think Giannis has left a lot to be desired in terms of like Giannest to me, is the MVP of the league right now. I think he's been the best regular season this year, regular season player this year. I'm not trying to pick on Yannis. I think it's just he's in as much of a new role here as Dame is. And for Dame, it's just the geometry of the offense is very different compared to what he had in Portland. But like to me, Yannis hasn't really

that whole synergy just hasn't really taken shape yet. To your point, what if it does, because like if it does, that's where it could like really really take off. I personally, I like their configurations better. When they clear the side or empty corner for their ball screens, I feel like it just gets Yannis better, like easier opportunities to quickly read.

I think that's the difference. Like in his ISOs impost he's really focused on the floor, whereas in the ball screens he kind of has to like go from setting a screen to like quickly interpreting the floor and what's happening right in front of him. And I think it's just a little bit more of a of a hesitation there, which has caused some issues. But I'm wondering what you've noticed watching the Bucks this year that you think is holding them back offensively.

for somebody like Joel Embiid. The maxi Embiid one has you know, stood out in my mind all year. They use it a ton in Philadelphia. To be able to get Joell into open space, you have to pre rotate. And because you have to pre rotate and you essentially have to play three on two defensively, it I think creates an easier avenue to be able to read the court. Four players like Joel Embiid, Johannison Tetakumpo that can be a little bit turnover prone right like not can struggle

a little bit with passing and playmaking. At the end of the day, I think that you're one hundred percent right in terms of why their struggles have been. Yannis and Dame together still do not have that synergy in ball screens. I think that it's Janie's screening to an extent, and I think it's Jiannis's ability to read the floor

as well. It's just not a situation that he's been comfortable with throughout the course of his career to this point because he hasn't had that elite gravitational force as a pull up player previously. He's still adjusting to this new reality that he currently lives in. It took Joel Embiid in James Harden like probably half a year to be able to figure that out. To get I'm not surprised that it's taken Joannis and Damian Lillard like hopefully

half of a year to figure it out. They need to spend like these last twenty eight games that they have, twenty seven games whatever they have left figuring that out. That is their critical critical thing. I don't think they win the title unless they have that elite attack figured out. Because for as much as I think Chris Middleton has been a little bit better over the course of the

second half of the first half of the season. It's Chris has not been good enough as a second side option to where you can consistently truly.

out of the Malik Beasley. Jay Crowder has been like somewhat serviceable this year. I kind of thought there was a chance he was cooked, but he hasn't been totally cooked in the way that like Pat Connaton, for instance, has been. They need Pat Connaton to be able to give them something something in my opinion, and then they need to figure out if they can rely on Andre

Jackson and Marjon Beauchamp in some way. My guess is that it has to be Andre Jackson to be able to provide like real point of attack defense beyond Patrick Beverley. They need two of those guys. I think one of them can be Pat Bev. It needs to probably be Andre Jackson to be able to give them like ten to fifteen minutes a game in the playoffs that they can at least use to tire out opposing ball handlers.

You kind of have to start him and kind of like feed into his confidence and then basically lean into Pat, you know, for specific stretches of the game, and maybe even play him more minutes like almost like a like a twenty five minute per game type of guy.