Hoops Tonight - LeBron James & Lakers becoming a threat? Bucks struggling, Mavericks stay hot

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in the second half. We're going to look into a bunch of film talking about why the Bucks have been struggling. The Heat and the Pacers had a showdown to determine not necessarily the final result of their fates in the play in tournament, but a very very important game for their fates in the standings in the Eastern Conference. And I thought the result of that game came down to three mistakes by the Miami Heat late, so we're gonna

take a look at that. After that, we're going to talk about a really fun game between the MAVs and the Rockets. Kyrie Irving has forty eight points. Donte Exhem, it's a three to send the game to overtime. Maxi Klebo is just a monster on the defensive end at the end of that game. We got a bunch of film from that game as well, and then at the end of the show. Typically on Monday, we'd be doing power rankings, but this is our last week of the

regular season. Next week on Monday, we're gonna be doing playoff previews, and so what I want to do is throughout this week we're gonna do ten, nine and eight today, but throughout this week we're gonna go through my top ten championship contenders, essentially my final ranking of the team strictly within the context of their postseason potential. So at the end of the show, we're gonna hit ten, nine

and eight on that front. You guys are the Joe Before we get started, to subscribe to our brand new YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore JCNLTS. You guys don't miss any show announcements as well as the film threads

that I do from time to time. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, and then keep dropping mail back questions in those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the rest of this playoff run. And then also last but not least, before we get started. Now is the very best time of year to actually get out and go see a

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lowest price guaranteed. All right, let's talk some basketball. So the Lakers, like I mentioned earlier, they had a four game winning street going into that Minnesota Timberwolves game, and then Lebron James comes down with flu like symptoms, and then Anthony Davis ends up reaggravating an eye injury that he had a little while back, and so he only played twelve minutes. The Lakers were plus four in his minutes. That didn't matter. The Timberwolves pretty much controlled and dominated

that game. Every Laker was slotted into a pretty difficult role and they weren't able to hold up against Minnesota. But as many of you guys know, I've been pointing out on this show lately that the Lakers have been really good for a long time. Since January seventh, they are twenty eight and fifteen, That is the fifth best record in the league in that span. That's a forty three game sample size too, that's more than half the season.

As a matter of fact, I had this comment yesterday on the video from somebody saying, like, oh, Jason got off the Lakers bandwagon, and now he's trying to jump back on. And this is like, literally, I think one of the funniest types of comments that I get when like, we have a sample size of information and I feel a certain way about it, and then we have new information and I feel a different way about it, and

now I'm accused of changing my mind. This is new information. Specifically, what got me off the Lakers bandwagon was they didn't address a personnel weakness, specifically at the point of attack, and to that point in the season, they were a

bad offense. They were a bad offense that also had a severe defensive weakness, and so they weren't even like the Lakers from last year, where it was like their offense was pretty mediocre, but at the very least between Dennis Schroeder and Jared Vanderbilt, they had a really good perimeter defense core to kind of like take some of those matchups and Anthony Davis anchoring things, and that was how they won down the stretch from the Russ Westbrook

trade through to the end of the season, even through to the Western Conference Finals, it was defense. He beat the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs with defense.

in three point percentage. Remember at the beginning of the season when I kept talking about how like these guys just start shooting very well, but there's some good shooters. I'm hoping that these guys start making shots. They've been

making shots, and they lit up a Cavs team that is really good defensive personnel, although they've had their struggles with defense as of late. But the point that I'm getting at here is this is fundamentally a different Lakers team than really any version of the Lakers that we've seen in the Lebron James Anthony Davis era, going back

to twenty nineteen, before ad got there. They won the title in twenty twenty, even twenty twenty one, twenty two, twenty twenty three, they were a mediocre to bad offense consistently, and essentially what has happened is through adding D'Angelo Russell, the development of Austin Reeves, adding Ruey Hachimura last year before the deadline, the addition of the five out offense, which was a real struggle early in the season, and there was actually a point in the middle of the

season whe Darbingham kind of went away from it for a little while. Then they went back to it, and it's kind of clicked in a lot of ways. And their offensive skill at every single position group has made that attack work. And there's been a bunch of different reasons why. And so I wanted to go into the film today from this matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers to just kind of talk about some of the ways that the Lakers have been having success offensively. So let's get

over to the film. Okay, So this first clip that I wanted to demonstrate for you guys. You remember how I've been talking about how Ruy Hachimura ends up getting favorable matchups and can have a lot of success as a result. This is an example against the Calves where they're going up like they're going to run offense, but they identify that Ruy Hatchamura has Georgie kneeing on him.

So because Max Streus has to take a higher leverage assignment, Donovan Mitchell has to take a higher leverage assignment, Jared Allen has to guard Anthony Davis. Caris lavert Is on D'Angelo Russell. As a result, you're getting Ruey Hatchamura with George's kneeing on him, so he's got the weakest defender on the floor. Ruey Hatchamura has been a very, very

good on an island scorer this year. He's been way over a point per possession in post up situations as well, and he's just gonna take George's kneeing down to the block back him down. DELO excuse me, Anthony Davis because he was kind of standing here at the elbow, Jared Allen was kind of digging down in his way. So AD's going to cut through to get Jared Allen out of there. That opens up this space for Ruy to get to his right shoulder fade, and he does a

really nice job here of initiating some contact. Watch him kind of drop that shoulder and displace kneing and then get up into the lane for his little patented little fallaway that he knocks down. Those are favorable matchups that Rui's getting every single game. This is a big part of why, like even with I talk about the pros and cons of different types of data that we use

in the NBA. That's why even point for possession data has its limitations, because part of the reason why Rui has been so damn efficient in the post this year is he's consistently getting super favorable matchups down there. So the story of this particular game against Cleveland was the Lakers attacking a very specific type of pick and roll coverage that the Cavs were using. So the vast majority of teams that are serious basketball teams run different coverages

for different spots on the floor. Every team that I played for on side pick and rolls, we did what was called an ice coverage, which essentially involves in this situation as this ball screen is going to get set. Darius Garland's entire job is to deny Austin the use of the screen and funnel him back towards the baselines or the sideline side, and then Jared Allen is supposed to effectively catch him down here in this short corner area. So what you're going to see here, watch how Darius

Garland jumps way up on Austin's high side. All he's doing is forcing him to go away from the screen. Jared Allen's there to catch. And what the Cavs were doing all game long is when Jared Allen would catch this ball handler coming off of the of the rejected ball screen, they would use Evan Mobley whoever was guarding the guy up top, but it was typically Lebron and so they'd use Evan Mobley to tag Anthony Davis, and they were leaving Lebron James open at the top of

the floor. So this first time through the ball gets works to Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis hits Lebron at the top key and again Lebron's been absolutely deadly in catch and shoot situations this year. But keep in mind that is just an example we're going to see a bunch of those ice coverages here through the rest of this kind of video thread that we're going through. Here's the

exact same type of concept. Now what I think is super interesting here, Delo is going to set an impromptu screen on Jared Allen to prevent him from getting to his spot in the ice coverage. Remember, same exact content, except Austin's got the ball. Ad is gonna come up and set the ball screen. But because DLO is screening

Jared Allen, Jared is supposed to be down here. He's supposed to be down here to catch when Austin rejects the screen and basically drives into him so that they can use these other guys to kind of dig down on Anthony Davis. Dlo's screen makes it so because look, AD's not cutting. AD's not going to the rim, He's not back screening Jared Allen so that AD can get a lob. He's back screening Jared Allen because he knows what the coverage is. DLO just watched them run an

ice coverage. He's trying to stop Jared Allen from being able to do his job. AD goes to set the pick Donovan Mitchell jumps way high side. Did you see how Donovan Mitchell jumped way on that high side there again, forcing Austin back towards that sideline side as he makes his move.

him over. Watch Jared Allen's momentum and watch Austin cross him over as a result of the screen. See that such an interesting little kind of trick that d'angela Russell uses randomly setting screens. Keep that in mind because there's a couple more of those coming up here in the thread. So one of the most common types of actions that the Lakers like to run with Lebron is have either Austin or Delo's screen for Lebron and then slip the action.

The reason why is because most teams don't want to allow this smaller defender to get switched on to Lebron where he can take them to task using his size. Right, So Austin is going to go and fakely he's going to set a screen. Donovan's supposed to be hedging here, but he's kind of on his heels, but essentially he's gonna hang around because the hedger's job. This guy has one responsibility before he recovers to Austin. He has to stop Lebron from driving, So he's gonna hang around long enough.

And Austin's literally just gonna slip behind the action. And because Mobley and Mitchell are both out there, Austin gets an easy layup. We're gonna see another one of those here in a minute as well, same exact type of thing we got Lebron. Here, Delo's gonna set the screen, Karis Lavert is going to hedge. Also, Delo's gonna set a little wedge backscreen for ad. First, the backscreen's not open, so here's where we're gonna get that screen. So now

Delo's gonna set his screen for Lebron. Watch Karis lavert hedge. You could see him hop out high side. All he has to do is stop Lebron from driving this way. Now Delo's slipping. He's behind both guys. As soon as he catches on the slip, Max Strus comes over and tags Dlo. Delo throws a one time or tap pass to Ruyacha Murr in the corner. He actually misses this three. That's a really high quality shot that the Lakers generate. Once again, guard screening for Lebron waiting for the hedge,

slipping the action to get onto the backside. Now we're gonna get another. This is a really cool sequence. Do you guys remember this massive dunk. Let's just watch it all the way through first, this was the biggest highlight of the game. Right, We get the Austin Reeves lob

to Lebron James. Nasty dunk, Very very cool. Right, this is what's fascinating to me about this In the context of everything we've been talking about with the coverage, this was a premeditated, planned counter from Lebron James and Austin Reeves Okay, so you can see Lebron throw the ball

to Austin and point to him. They clearly have had some sort of conversation Austin and Lebron at some point, whether it was during a timeout or some sort of stoppage, they clearly discussed exactly what they were gonna do here. So we're gonna get the exact same action that we saw earlier. They're setting up to run this ball screen. But as they're getting ready to run it, look at Mitchell. Mitchell's way on the high side right. Because he's way

on the high side. Ad doesn't even bother to set the screen because there's no reason for him to set the screen because he's not going to be able to actually use it. So Austin has one job here. Mitchell, because he's playing the high side, is gifting Austin that driving lane to the right. AD knows all I have to do is just kind of meander down here into the lane, and Evan Mobley's gonna tag me, because we know every single one of these side pick and rolls

that they've run all game, Evan Mobley's been tagging. So now watch, Austin's already looking at Lebron. He's literally been looking at him this whole time. As soon as he kind of gets going, he's looking back at Lebron right now, and Lebron's got his eye on him. He's already getting ready for this cut. And because Mobley again, because Mobley is tagging Ad so that Jared Allen can catch while Austin is rejecting the ice, Lebron is able to cut with a free runway down the middle.

Meryll leaves Lebron's going downhill, he's dunking on everybody. So Meryl has a job here in this hedge to not rotate back to del until Marcus Morris can get back position to get in front of Lebron. This leaves d Low wide open. Lebron does this kind of thing a lot where he's driving down on his right side and he just whips it backwards. It's kind of like an around the back pass, but it's almost like straight back instead of around the back because Delo's in that position.

Lebron's reading it the whole time. He knows this is Dlo's man, and he's just gonna whip it right back to Delo, who's wide open for three. So again the hedge, the hedge has a responsibility. He's not allowed to recover until he cuts off the driving angle. That's gonna be important because we're when we talk heat pacers the heat. Tyler Harrow makes a critical mistake in a hedge at the end of the game that we're going to get to. So that's why I wanted to kind of include that play.

Also an example of the problems that the Lakers present offensively, but an example of that specific coverage. All Right, now, the Calves can't get a stop. Right, We're nine minutes into the second we or not even three minutes into the second quarter, and the Lakers almost have fifty points already.

Lebron draws Evan Mobley on the catch, and Kniang knows we're always gonna give up a three before we give up a layup, so Kniang is diving down Lebron kind of like throws a little pass fake and then hits it out to Tareum Prints on the wing. Again, it's just gonna be hard to zone the Lakers when they have a guy that can catch the ball in the middle of the floor, who can make good decisions, and

everybody around them can make shots. Again, they're second in three point percentage since January seventh, this forty three game stretch. All right, last play to kind of demonstrate some of the kind of quirky stuff the Lakers do to generate high quality offense. Lebron's gonna throw a crazy cut with the backscreen from Gabe Vincent to try to get Evan Mobley on a switch in the post because Morris is just a little stronger gets the switch. Okay, now Lebron's

posting up and watch Dlo here. Delo is going to set an impromptu screen to try to trigger a switch that is baked into Cleveland's defensive scheme. So we talked about hedging on Lebron because they don't want to let these little guys get onto Lebron, right, But if a guard guard screen occurs, the vast majority of teams are just going to switch a guard guard screen, So Dlo is going to run up, see how he's pointing. Delo points to Gabe and runs up to backscreen Merrill, which

in theory would trigger a switch. Darius Garland would then run out onto Gabe and Merrill would take Delo right. Delo's trying to trigger that switch, so he runs up and sets it. Okay, runs up to set. Garland is now going to kind of take a lunch step out towards Gabe as if they're gonna switch. But who's got the inside position here? Delo has the inside position, so he now has effectively forced or baited Cleveland into switching

Merrill onto de Lo while he has inside position. He's just gonna slip right back inside for a layup.

to basically backscreen, slip and again Garland. The only reason Garland takes that lunch step out and that's out this far as he's thinking, he's gonna be switching on the Gabe Vincent easy layup. So again the nation here, and what makes this all work is you've got two guys in Anthony Davis and Lebron James be consett screens and easily slip and easily get into the paint and finish in traffic and make reads when the defense collapses on

him again. A lot of people don't realize this because the Lakers don't drive the basketball a time, but they've consistently been one of the biggest best paint offenses in the league. They attempt almost all of their shots, or the vast majority of their shots compared to the rest of the league, inside of five feet from the basket.

point percentage team since January seventh. Every single guy is capable of attacking closeouts and extending advantages. Ruey gets mismatches all time, all the time. They can run guard actions, inverted ball screens to get to get their guards slipping into open spaces. It is just an overwhelming amount of offensive skill with interior paint forces of Ruy, Hatchamura, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis to tie it all together, and that's

why they've been dominating, dominating teams offensively. And again, to go back to that YouTube comment, I was talking about when things were going really bad for the Lakers, and remember they were.

teams like that. Right, I had the Lakers in that tier until their offense exploded, And with their offense exploding, I now put them back in that middle tier. In order to ever have a chance to get up into that Denver and Boston tier, I think they needed to.

I thought they needed to make a significant personnel upgrade at the deadline, Like had they got a Bruce Brown, had they got a dejon Te Murray, a guy who can really contend on the perimeter and generate dribble penetration on his own, I would have been more kind of inclined to think of the Lakers as an upper tier team. But I still believe that those personnel weaknesses will be

an issue when we get to our contender rankings. You guys are gonna hear there in more detail the reasons why I'm not as high on LA's chances, as some people are that said, I do think their offense is real. It's an extended stretch of them being really, really hard to guard. I do think they're a better offensive team than they were last year by a sizable margin. I do think that gives them their puncher's chance, their proverbial puncher's chance. That's gonna put them into that middle tier.

All right, let's move on to Nick's Bucks. So the Bucks played a really good half in the first half, and it looked like they were gonna get back on track, and then they completely fell apart in the second half. They gave up seventy two points while only scoring forty eight eight. Main thing I saw on defense, the Knicks were just relentlessly attacking Damian Lillard. And this is a concept that I've talked about a lot on the show, but that we haven't had a chance to look at

on film. And so what we're gonna do today is go look at some clips to demonstrate how Damian Lillard can be a pretty devastating weak point in the Milwaukee Bucks defense.

in the film. Is specifically finding a way to get Dame switched onto either Og or onto Jalen Brunson and to have success attacking him in individual actions. Here is an example of a ghost screen.

see there's another example coming up. Like a lot of those are where Dame is getting into his switches. He's switching passively way back on his heels, and he's just too small for that, and so they're able to get like a real head of team going through him to the basket.

screen on Malik gets the swing. Now it's Crowder. Now they clear the side and he's just gonna hit him with this patent a little between the legs or a little crossover dribble makes a little bank shot off the glass. How about josh Hart getting on the action a little bit? So Runson's going up against Beasley. Now Dame is guarding josh Hart here, and josh Hart identifies this and they just this is one of the most pitiful efforts to get over the top of the screen I've ever seen.

Mitchell Robinson doesn't even actually make contact. He slips out of it early. Watch how Dame just concedes the driving lane. There was no contact, there was no screen. He just lazy kind of meanders over the top easily allows josh Hart to get downhill. That allows josh Hart to engage Bobby Portis, which forces Jay Crowder to come off of one of the best shooters in the league, Dante DiVincenzo. It forces Crowder to come off to tag Mitchell Robinson

to prevent the lob. Josh makes the easy kickout pass to Devincenzo in the corner and he knocks down to three again. Like it's just there's just got to be a little more effort there, like Josh Hart should not be able to that easily get to his spots in a ball screen. Not to mention that's probably a guy you can duck under the pick on if anything. This possession, the Bucks are in kind of like a matchup zone, so as guys are cutting through, you can see them

talking matchups. But once we get into the lake clock here, it basically converts to man de man Giannis actually follows og all the way up the floor and now it's just one on one basketball brunts and against Damian Lillard. His eyes light up and he just immediately goes to work. Now as he's backing down, Dame Jay Crowder is basically zoning up. He's come all the way over on the strong side, which is forced he is basically forced port

Is to come down and get inside position on Mitchell Robinson in case he shoots so he can get a rebound.

gonna double okay. And that he's now doubling off of one of the very best shooters in the league, as I keep saying, and a guy that's already made multiple shots recently, so he's in rhythm just being unguarded. And what gave it away for me is here's Doc Rivers. Watch Doc Rivers' reaction, He's like, what.

same sort of thing, Dante DiVincenzo screen. Let's get Dame on a switch and let's take Dame off the dribble for another bucket. Now here's another example of Dame doing a soft switch and allowing Jalen Brunson to get ahead of Steam.

this is how I get the defense in rotation. Right, So like a loaded up defense when we think of when we think about a loaded up defense, right, and we're gonna see some example. Look, this is a good example right here. So this is a loaded up defense, right, So we have Giannis is ready, he's the low man. He's prepared if anybody gets behind brook Lopez to kind of clean up the mess there.

that point. And so when you have an entry point, a guy like Dame that you can consistently use to get the defense into rotation, then it mitigates the strengths of your set defense because they're not having to go against you know, your loaded up kind of scheme. Instead, it's just close out attack to closed out attack of closed out find an open shot here, find an open shot there that, or or you're on an island and he's just getting easy baskets over the top of Dame.

And so that's kind of an It's another problem that we run into with Like the Minnesota Timberwolves have been an excellent defense all year, but they really struggle to get stops.

from the field. I only credit Dante DiVincenzo and og Nanobi. Oj Nobi just did a really nice job on Yiannis, like sliding his feet, absorbing contact and digging down at the basketball and kind of knocking it loose. Dante DiVincenzo did a really good job in ball pressure on Damian Lillard and chasing him over the top of screens.

Exact same kind of thing here, transition runout. Giannis looks to attack Og absorb the contact, knock the ball loose.

This time, Giannis gets a really good screen, but og A Nanobi ends up holding his ground and doing a really nice job sliding and staying in front of Dame and forcing the miss. Now let's talking about the biggs. This time Isaiah Hartenstein is gonna hold up on a switch against Dame and Iso force him into a really tough step back. Here's the exact same thing in the first half of that game. Hartenstein on a switch against Dame, slides his feet, forces him into a tough step back.

It's a really good contest, forces a miss. And then this is just incredible effort for Mitchell Robinson. We have a transition possession here, so off the brunts and miss Bucks are running. Watch Mitchell Robinson. This is unbelievable. Watch Mischell Robinson. As soon as the ball is caught, he's sprinting back Okay, sprint, Sprint, Sprint, Sprint, Sprint. Now Portos is gonna quick set a screen. Here's communication Josh Hart. Hey, he's getting ready to set the screen. He's telling him.

Robinson knows that Dame is an excellent shooter and he has to be in a high drop coverage. He has to be up at the level of the screen. He gets all the way around to that strong side and then Dave takes the shot and Mitchell Robinson blocks it. We got to watch that in real time. This is just unbelievable effort for Mitchell Robinson and communication from the Knicks. Shot goes up, Sprint, Sprint, Sprint, sprintce sprint, Josh Hart communicate, get back over there. They're setting a pick up at

the level. Block the pull up shot. Just unbelievable defense for Mitchell Robinson. Was really really impressed with the Knicks all night. All right, last thing we're gonna get into in this game before we move on is the Damiannis pick and roll. So the Knicks offense obviously really struggled down the stretch of this game too. They had just

forty eight points in the second half. And there's a concept I've been talking about a lot on the show this season having to do with the difference between cleared side actions and occupied corner actions, and how I always talk about how I like occupied corner actions with the top tier playmakers in the league, but for the lower level playmakers, I prefer or cleared side actions because they can actually see the whole floor in front of them and they can make reads easier. Well, I wanted to

show some plays to demonstrate that. So first of all, this is what the Bucks typically do. And to give you an example, I didn't count a single cleared side ball screen in this particular game. I had a really hard time just finding an example of them doing it the way that I want. I had to go way back into older games to find some examples that fit this. But here's what they were doing for the most part last night. And again, Bobby Portos is on this side

of the floor, so it's occupied. Also, they're running the ball screen towards the sideline. Giannis is rolling into just a lot of traffic, so like even when he catches here, like he catches here, but everything is on both sides of him, He's got to read a lot of space. Brooke is behind him for instance, and notice how he

quickly hesitates and picks up his dribble. It's because he's not comfortable catching with the head of steam right there makes the kickout past to Brook and they're able to quickly rotate out of it and the advantage is gone. And so that's an example. As he's rolling into the middle of the floor, he's rolling into traffic. He's less confident and it's less of an advantage for the Bucks. That play actually ends in a turnover as well.

But he just doesn't roll. That needs to happen. But same sort of thing. He'd be rolling into traffic if he did. Here's an example from the Pelicans game of them giving up Ah on the roll to the rim, Yonis Valanciunas is able to make an easy rotation, so they're gonna go a little dribble hand off with Dame here. Dame is then gonna get the ball screen from Yannis.

So Dame's running up the floor, but because of the way this is laid out, all three bucks are on the weak side. So this is the exact configuration that I want. I want Dame working towards the middle, and I want Yiannis rolling into all of this empty space, because if he rolls into that empty space and he catches here, he can have ahead of steam but see the entire floor in front of him and not have to worry about what's going on behind him. In this case,

he rolls into the open space. He didn't have to worry about someone tagging. He can see all that. If Nicholas Patum came up, he'd literally be able to see this happen. Everything's in front of him. He's rolling into open space. Same sort of thing here. Because Connaton cuts through, we have a cleared side on this side of the floor. Janna sets the screen. Now he's rolling into open space.

Watch when he catches here. So Jannis catches Philly, still loaded up, but they're loaded up in a way that is completely in front of Gianni's He can see everything and so he's able to quick make a decision here, like I can turn the corner on Tobias easily just by dropping my right shoulder. So he gets down he hill just drops his right shoulder and finish. It's just an easier decision for him to make when he catches

in open space as opposed to in traffic. One more example, same sort of thing here, Crowder, Lopez and Malik Beasley.

And if you do it on the cleared side where he rolls into the short corner, it's just a lot easier for him than when you have him rolling into the middle of the floor with all that traffic. And I'm glad that we were able to finally give you guys kind of a visual representation of what I was talking about. All right, moving on to Heat Pacers. This one We're just going to spend a couple of minutes on because I wanted to just kind of show the

big sequence of the game that kind of determined the outcome. So, as I've talked about so much on the show, execution is the biggest thing that determines the outcome of late game situations, right, And this game was interesting because the Pacers jumped the Heat early and he battled back and they actually got it to two with three minutes left.

It was a one oh three to one oh one game, and back to back to back mistakes by the Miami Heat cost them, and so I wanted to show you guys that just to demonstrate how execution can blow things for a team.

of lights out movement shooter. Right, what did we talk about from the Cavs game, Right, Tyler Harrow's job when he hedges is to cut off the drive. That's all that matters. It's the one thing he has to do. As long as he cuts off the drive, even if he doesn't give up a three. As long as he cuts off the drive, he has done his job. TJ

sets a screen, slips out Tyler Harrow. Tyler Harrow's hedge like takes a terrible angle, Like you could tell he's getting ready to hedge, but he just takes a terrible angle and Tyres Aliburton goes right around him for an easy layup. And again one job there, come further out. He's got to meet him. He's got to meet him out here and just force him to take a retreat dribble. Because if Tyre's Halliburton takes a retreat dribble, Jimmy Butler rotates,

Tyler Harrow gets back and then we're fine. But because he takes a bad angle on this hedge, it's a layup. Now it's a four point game. Go down to the other end. The Miami heater going to run an action to try to get Tyre's Halliburton switched on to Jimmy Butler.

on defense in the last segment. He's walking, now he's jogging. We've got three guys here, right, what are the order?

and it's basically over from there. The Heat would have to play perfect to win from there, and it's hard to play perfect. So a great example of how like you can play a great basketball game do everything right and get into a position where you're where you can win.

And then if you don't execute so three easy mistake at three mistakes right, Tyler Harrow bad hedge Nikola Jovich, with eight seconds on the shot clock, shoots a floater off the side of the backboard when Jimmy Butler has Tyre's Haliburton on him closing out at him of all things too. And then finally bad transition defense not picking up the ball and protecting the rim, poor communication jogging from Tyler Harrow. Suddenly your chance to win the game

is over. And that's how quickly it can happen when it comes to uh to execution. All right, Rockets mass super super fun game. The Rockets jumped them early, Dallas battles back, sends it to ot off of a Dante Xum three. We're gonna go through some of that on film as well. Dallas gets a big win. Kyrie Irving had forty eight points in this game. We're starting on

film by looking at Kyrie Irving's footwork. Now, one of the things I talk about a lot on this show is footwork is the means with which you get to your spots.

Let's watch it in real speed. First, watch how strong these steps are. Spin one, two up to the basket to finish through contact. Literally, he had the strength off of the spin move to take two additional lunging steps through a bigger, stronger defender and to finish at the rim.

Drives left right, gets cut off. Then he's going to step through with his left foot to set Jalen Green up for a fade away step through, pump, fake spin over his right shoulder. Look at this footwork. Watch this again. I'm gonna put it in slow motion this time. Watch Kyrie's footwork because he gets down here boom, step through with the left foot, fake pivot over the right shoulder.

and PJ. Washington is the low man here right. So because the roller got behind the line of defense, he has to come off of Cam Whitmore in the corner and he's got to help at the rim. He's going to get the block on Jock Landale. Then he's gonna run up the floor and we have a really he's got a smaller defender in front of him, so he's gonna do a really nice job of tucking to gather the ball, like taking the contact and finishing at the rim.

See how he protects the ball. Looking at how far he brought the ball over on his left side right here, like he's bringing away on his left side to protect, swinging that right shoulder through to clear out. Getting the easy layout. Now we're gonna get Maxie Cleeb but getting involved. I thought he was the unbelievable defensively at the end

of this game. This is going to be an example of a peel off switch to get a steal. So this ball is gonna end up in Kyrie Irving's hands. And when Jabari Smith sets the screen, uh, Kyrie calls for the switch and then Fred van Vliet kind of beats him to the side, but Kyrie Irving calls another switch and he switches. Watch Kaliba right here he sees Kyrie's got him. He identifies that Luca's there, Kyrie's there.

He knows now that he doesn't need to chase anymore, and so at the last second he bails out on it and pulls back. Fred van Vliet tries toss it back to Jabari Smith and Kleba gets the steal. Here's a couple of stops, same exact thing twice, Kleiba getting switched onto Jalen Green and forcing him into tough pull up threes and getting misses miss number one. Same sort of thing here, ball screen, kleebah an island. Look at this contest. This is a lot of length to force a couple of big myss.

recover and then Luca would recover. But instead Luca points because it appears you could see him immediately point. They do the windshield wiper rotation from the opposite end of the floor, so they're expecting Luca to basically recovered to Dylan Brooks.

guarding Xom and Dylan Brooks is guarding Luca. He's gonna throw that pitch. Reggie Bullock is you can literally see it in his body language. This is this is oh shit body language. He's like, oh shit, here comes Luca, right, So he's like oh no, no, no, and Dylan Brooks is chasing so hard from behind, and he gets there. But Dante exam is wide open as a result, and Dante Exam has been dead on, like dead on with his catch and shoot shooting this year ties the game

and sends it to ot. Here we get another big play from Kleeve at the rim on defense. Fred van Blied is gonna get downhill and Cleeve is gonna block him on the opposite side of the rim. This is actually an example. So down the stretch of this game, the Rockets just started hard doubling the MAVs every single time. So here we're gonna get a double team a PJ. Washington's gonna slip to the middle of the floor. It's gonna get swung through really good rotations from from Houston.

Balling's up with Exum and Xem is dribbling out to try to get the ball back to Luca. So he's looking at Luca, but Dylan Brooks is on in full ball denial literally forty feet from the basket, and there's only ten seconds left and Kyrie's all the way down over here, so Exum basically has to try to make a playoff the bounce, and he's like, sure, I can make plays with the ball in my hands.

we're gonna get another impromptu double team this time of Kyrie. Okay ball gets swung. There's an impromptu double team of Luca that gets swung to Kleeba. Kleeba is not in a position to score, so he just tosses it to Kyrie. We're gonna get another impromptu double team from Jeff Green this time Kleiba kind of slips into that opening draws Jalen Green and then PJ. Washington gets a wide open

corner three. So again, just the advantage of having stars that continually draw double teams means you're constantly in rotation, which means as long as you make good reads, you're gonna get great looks. Good read there from Kleeba, wide open three for PJ.

contenders now. Actually before we to quick tie off on.

I want to. Most of the rotation players for Phoenix are dead eye shooters. That said, they simply do not have the type of versatile defensive forwards that Dallas can bring to the table, Guys like PJ. Washington, guys like Maxi Kleba. So I actually think Phoenix has a little bit higher of a offensive ceiling than Dallas does. But I think Dallas has a little bit higher of a defensive ceiling, and I think that that could end up voting even more well for them when they get to

the postseason. I'm actually still up in the air for like, Phoenix and Dallas are like my biggest toss up right now in my tender rankings, which we're gonna get to later this week. All right, before we get out of here today, Like I said, we're gonna be going through our top ten contenders. This is gonna be ranked purely based on what I'm expecting from these teams in the postseason. A couple of quick notes on the standings. After Boston and Denver, Oklahoma City and Minnesota are the next two

teams in the standings right. They're both young athletic teams that dominated the regular season. They have twenty four and twenty five losses. Then we have the Clippers. They have twenty eight losses. They were really good for a big chunk of the season, and they've been pretty mediocre for a big chunk of the season. They're kind of in

that mid middle zone. But the next thirteen teams Dallas, Milwaukee, Orlando, New York, Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland, Sacramento, Indiana, the Lakers, Philadelphia, Miami, and Golden State. All thirteen teams in that list have between thirty and thirty five losses. They're all separated by five games in the lost column, so like they're all

crunched up on each other. So standings for, there's a bunch of teams in both conferences that I have ranked more differently than where they're at in the standings, and it's because we're really splitting hairs at this point. Aside from those teams at the top of the league, everyone's kind of crunched up on each other, and so I'm more looking at matchups, personnel, and how I expect those things to translate to the postseason. So we're gonna be going from ten to one to start, and I'm just

going to do ten, nine and eight today. So number ten is actually going to be a two for one. It's the Heat and the Warriors. These are teams that were just giving the appropriate amount of respect to the establishment. Both of them have had mediocre regular seasons. Both are forty three and thirty five. Both are likely to be in the play in tournament, the Warriors basically certainly at this point and the Heat likely at this point after their loss to the Pacers, although it's not over for them.

Both have similar strengths. They're both really good defenses. They're both really good at defensive rebounding. They have a superstar that thrives in the postseason. Right, you can't do much better than Jimmy and Steph as postseason stars.

their superstars are getting a bit old. Both superstars their numbers are down from last year, both of them seem to be a little bit on the other end of the hill, and neither team has a reliable secondary shot creator, so as a result of that, some nights when guys are playing well, they look great on offense and they can beat anybody, But they have the a tendency, especially if they're superstars not playing super well, to go really

cold offensively and to have a lot of challenges. But their playoff strengths are a reality, elite superstar talent, elite coaching, and elite defense and rebounding. Those are like three or four of the most important things that you can have as a playoff threat. And so because of that, I think it'd be silly for us to write these teams out, and so that's why I have them in this list as kind of like a two fer in that tense. It's the appropriate amount of respect to the establishment. Their

defense and rebounding are going to keep games close. So it's really going to come down to execution. Now, both of these teams, ironically, for being historically good execution teams, both of these teams have struggled with execution this season. The Warriors have lost a bunch of close games this season. The Heat haven't been a very good clutch team either.

We just showed examples from the Pacers game of them making critical execution mistakes down the stretch, so relative to what we expect from these teams as establishment franchises that haven't been good execution teams this year, but that is kind of their reputation. I kind of view these teams as like the bouncer at the club, and what I mean by that is like, I don't think either of them are talented enough to win four rounds. Certainly it would be a big long shot, but I do think

they will expose the fraudulent teams around the league. So I'm going to be really tempted to pick the heat in the Warriors in just about any series except for the very top echelon in the league, simply because of the fact that they are the team that will expose you if you're not ready, if you have major holes that prevent you from being a postseason team, excuse me,

a championship level team. If you have those kinds of holes, it's elite, superstar, elite coaching, elite defense that will expose that. That's what Miami and Golden State do. And so I expect, you know, no matter what, those two teams to be a royal pain in the butt. But I'm gonna be tempted to pick them just simply because of their ability to expose other teams flaws.

be in their favor right. Two, the coaches have to throw the other teams out of rhythm, so Kerr and Spolstra have to coach their ass off, identify and expose weaknesses on the other team. And then lastly, they need consistent contribution from their inconsistent offensive co stars or co talent on the team. As long as those guys contribute, as long as the coaches make the other teams uncomfortable, and as long as Stephan Jimmy playwell, they have a

chance to beat anybody. Number nine the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are fifty four and twenty four so far, tied for the one seed in the Western Conference. Their strengths, they are physically overwhelming at every position group. Anthony Edwards is one of the biggest, strongest, most athletic guards that we have in the league. Nikile Alexander Walker is another quick

and long perimeter defender. On the wing, Jaden McDaniels is possibly the best wing defender in basketball, and then Rudy Gobert obviously the length and versatility at the center position, Carl Towns and his ability to bully smaller wings, especially now that he plays alongside another big and even nos Reed in the matchup problems that he presents as just a gigantic human being that can shoot. They have physical advantages all over the floor. They've also been the best

defense in basketball this year. They are number one in defensive rating number one and half court defensive rating according to the Cleaning the last by a mile, almost five points better than the second best team in the league and half court defense. They're also an excellent rebounding team. They are seventh in defensive rebounding percentage. Their weaknesses though, they're a mediocre offense that becomes flat out bad at the end of games. For the season, they are seventeenth

in offensive rating, but that goes down. They scored just one hundred and four point three points per one hundred possessions offensively when the game is within five points with less than five minutes left. They fall apart at the end of games with their decision making and their spacing, and specifically, it comes down to Anthony Edwards as a twenty two year old decision maker, right, Like really, that's really what it comes down to, Like, he's twenty two years old and he has a tendency.

a lot. He's literally in the top fifteen a pull up jump shooting volume in the league this year. Despite the physical gifts that he has to the table that he brings to the table, and so really that's what it comes down to. It's like, he's twenty two and one of the most common things I talked about on the show is like the growth of a young basketball player is identifying what works and finding out how to replicate it, identifying what's not working in finding out how

to minimize it. An just hasn't really got to that point yet. And so I'm as big an ant believer as you'll find. I think he has a real chance to be the best player in the league, which is saying something given some of the talent that we have outside of the United States that has come into the league. Right, So, like, I'm a big believer in Anthony Edwards, but it's just really early in his window decision making. Is the weakness of the team and that its manifested in that offensive rating.

They haven't defended well at the end of games either. They have a one to eighteen point three defensive rating and clutch situations that is the sixth worst mark in the entire NBA for a team that has been the best defense in the league. Outside of those situations. That to me comes down to entry points. Like I talked about, if you can get Mike Conley in the action, get the defense in rotation, If you can get Kyle Towns in the action, get the defense in rotation, Suddenly it

doesn't matter how strong your set defense is. Teams have not had a problem scoring on Minnesota in crunch time this season. I think that will be the death of them. They'll be in every single game because of their defense, but I think they'll just inevitably run into a team that can out execute them in the half court, and I think they'll get knocked out. What does their path

look like? Everything comes down to Anthony Edwards. If he plays like a thirty year old vet, under control, good decision making, prioritizing, using his physical gifts to dominate the game on both ends of the floor, devoting resources defensively where you can be absolutely devastating, and then on offense, using his strength to get a and athleticism to get

as close to the rim as possible. And then when he does settle shooting a high percentage, a higher percentage than he has in the regular season, which, by the way, he's consistently been a pretty mediocre regular season pull up shooter. But He's pretty consistently been a great pull up shooter in the postseason, albeit in a small sample size, only

one round each time. So as long as he can do that over the course of a longer playoff run, make the shots and make quality decisions, they can beat anyone. It's just you're betting on a twenty two year old, and that's a lot to ask. That's why I have them so low relative to where they are in the standings. Number eight, final one for today, the Milwaukee Bucks. This is the largest gap between how I felt about a

team at the start of the season versus now. I had them as the second best championship contender to start the season adam a hair over Boston. Now I have them all the way down at eight. They're forty seven and thirty one, second in the Eastern Conference, just fifteen and seventeen since Doc Rivers got hired below five hundred and a thirty two game sample size, twentieth best record in the league in that span. Mediocre on both ends of the floor. They're sixteenth on all offense and thirteenth

in defense over that thirty two game span. Their strengths, they've been a good offense for most of the season. They're actually fifth and offensive raiding for the whole season, especially against good teams. And this is like your little silver lining or whatever you want to call it that you cling to as a Bucks fan. They have a one to twenty two point two offensive rating against teams in the top ten in point differential according to Cleaning the Glass. That is the best rating in the league.

So their offense has been really good against good teams. Honestly, that's all the optimism for both Lakers fans and Bucks fans has to center around how they fared against good teams, because those two teams have been better against the best than they've been against the middle of the pack. They are top five in both three pointers made per game and free throws made per game, so they get really

efficient shots to kind of bolster their offensive rating. They're an excellent defensive rebounding team their sixth in defensive rebounding percentage. They also have real star power for the postseason, Damian Giannis. Even with as much as dam has struggled this year, I still think Damianiannis is a better duo than anything they'll encounter in the Eastern Conference. It won't be until they run into yok At You and Murray if they get to the finals, that they'll run into a better duo.

So like that's a huge advantage going into the postseason. I don't think with Jalen Brown's rise and with Dame's fall, I don't think it's like a big gap. I think they're barely a better duo the than the Tatum Brown duo. But I do think they're a better duo. Their weaknesses

biggest one they're just slow. Outside of Yannis, every single player in their rotation because the young guys don't play much, every single player in their rotation is slower than average for their position group around the league, and so teams get out in transition a lot against them. They get out and transition sixteen percent of the time. That ranks twenty second in the NBA. It's a big part of their defensive issues. They were a top ten paint defense

last year. That used to be a strength of the Bucks. They could protect the paint.

very dependent on jump shooting. They're a top ten jump shooting frequency team, and so they've kind of leaned a little bit into too much into the variance themselves. They're slow, they don't get a ton of easy shots right around the basket. They rely on tough shot making a lot. That's just a tough spot to be in offensively, and I think that's a big part of why they've struggled

so much offensively as of late. But really they just have never been able to get the dam Giannis two man game off the ground where it needs to go. And we talked about that specifically in our film session today for the Bucks. I gave like six examples of different ball screen configurations that I've been looking at with Milwaukee.

Stuff that works and stuff that doesn't. So you can find that a little bit earlier on our feed if you were watching this on a breakout, but they've just never been able to get the damianis two man game to be as inevitable as it needs to be, and then Dame as the entry point. And defensively, the Knicks one the other night literally just because they were targeting Dame almost every single time down the floor and getting great shots. As a result, they just have bad vibes.

They're under five hundred for almost half of a season's worth of games at this point. The Doc Rivers situation, the comments, the energy around the team, it's just not where you want it to be if you're in position to make a championship run. This team doesn't appear to have that energy behind it that you hope for from a contender. What is their path really simple? Dam and Giannis have to figure it out offensively when they get

to the postseason, which by the way, is doable. They need excellent shooting runs from Malik Beasley, Brook Lopez and Chris Middleton, and lastly Joannison Tennan Kumpo just has to have the defensive playoff runt of his lifetime. He's got to just be so incredibly locked in and focused and be able to clean up so many messes, because the messes are going to be there. But if all that comes together, they have the talent, they have the ability to do it. They've just got a lot of things

that are trending in the wrong direction. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. There's no NBA games tonight because of the National Title Games, so if we go tomorrow, it'll probably just be a couple more of the contenders that we'll look at. We are going live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Lakers Warriors tomorrow night, though, so I will see you guys then. If I don't see you in the morning, I always appreciate you guys.