Hoops Tonight - Lakers vs. Grizzlies Playoff Prediction: Will LeBron James upset Ja Morant?

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your first purchase. Terms apply again and to your email and the code hoops. That's h Oops for twenty dollars off. Download game Time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guarantee. All right, let's talk some basketball. So a couple of quick series notes before we get into the weeds. The Grizzlies are a minus one thirty favorite. I had I predicted during our live instant reaction last night that'd be very close, a very slight favorite one way or the other.

Turns out the Grizzlies are a slight favorite. I think that makes some sense. The Lakers are playing some sloppy basketball coming into this series. The Lakers did win the season series two to one. All three games were weird, and the first one Anthony Davis was out. The Lakers were playing this weird group with Lebron and a bunch of the pre deadline guys, and they had this wild

fourth quarter comeback to come back and win. And then in the second game, it was in Memphis post deadline, but Lebron wasn't playing and they didn't quite have enough shot creation. John Morant and had this massive third quarter and the Grizzlies one. And then they played one additional time, this time at Crypto com Arena. No Lebron or John Morant, and the Grizzlies didn't have enough shot creation and the

Lakers won a low scoring affair at home. Stephen Adams and Brandon Clark will both miss the entire series, So there's a lot of pressure on Jaren Jackson in particular in this series to play a lot of minutes and to avoid getting into foul trouble against the Lakers team that is great at drawing fouls. One of the big this is very important, especially as we head into this series because it's a narrative right now. A big story coming out of that Minnesota game last night was the

free throw differential. I think in the fourth quarter in ot the Lakers took seventeen compared to just three for the Timberwolves, which was a Mike Conley foul right right at the buzzer and at the end of the fourth quarter, right And this has been a theme throughout the entire season this last half of the season, as teams have been hyper focused on the Lakers and their free throw differential. It is extremely simple. The Lakers are the best team in the league at getting to the free throw line.

They lead the league and free throw attempts per one hundred possessions, and they are the best team in the league gets stopping other teams from getting to the free throw line. They allow the fewest free throw attempts per one hundred possessions. They are the only team in the league that is good at both. As a result of that, they have a massive free throw differential compared to other teams around in the league. There's not a single other team in the league who's top five in both categories.

There's so at the end of the day, just naturally they're gonna have a bigger advantage there. I thought Ben Taylor, some of you guys know him from Thinking Basketball, he did a whole thing on this when this was a big story a couple weeks ago. But it really just has to do with the way this particular season has played out. This Lakers group and their free throw differential isn't even in the top fifteen for teams in this century.

So from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three, or excuse me, from the year two thousand to twenty twenty three, there have been sixteen NBA teams that had better free throw differentials than the Lakers. It just so happens in this season the Lakers are the only team that are good at both. And that's why it looks funky what happened in that game last night. In the fourth quarter, the Lakers started switching everything, which shut down all of Minnesota's

driving lanes. They played much better at the point of attack, and so Minnesota was just passing the ball around on the perimeter and jacking up late clock threes. That's not going to draw a foul. Meanwhile, on the other end of the floor, it's Lebron, it's Dennis Schroder, and it's Anthony Davis just barreling to the basket every single time,

initiating a ton of contact. The Lakers have a lot of guys who are good at getting to the foul line, and defensively, they defend without fouling, which is mostly a coaching thing. It's something that coaches preach at every level of basketball. So don't buy into that particular narrative. Doesn't make any sense if the league was rigging games for

the Lakers. I promise you they call that foul when Jason Tatum is driving, When Lebron's driving to the basket and Jason Tatum hacks him, I promise you they call that foul. When Lebron James is driving to the basket and Christian Would hacks him at the buzzer, I promise you they call that foul. And Joel embiad Is grabbing Russell Westbrook's arm right in front of the ref on the final possession of the game. If they were trying to rig games for the Lakers, they're doing a horrible

job of it. It's not a conspiracy, it's just a talent. It's a skill that the Lakers have that no other team in the league has right now, and that's why they have that particular advantage Memphis, for example, fifteenth and getting to the line, fourteenth and stopping teams from getting to the line. So guess what, the Lakers are probably going to win the free throw differential battle throughout this entire series because Memphis is extremely average at it and

the Lakers are literally the best at it. So it'll be a narrative again throughout this series. But remember what's happening with the basketball. This is a team that is great at this specific skill. All right. Like we did with our other series previous, we're gonna focus in on some major matchups that could go one way or another. First, can the Lakers guard Ja Morant? The Grizzlies have super

straightforward matchups for Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Right, Dylan Brooks is going to guard Lebron probably every minute that he's on the floor. Jaren Jackson Junior is gonna guard Anthony Davis probably every minute that he's on the floor. Now, who knows if those guys will do a good job, right, they could get into foul trouble Lebron and ad or two of the best players in the league. Right, So

they might end up losing that matchup anyway. But the athletically and from a size and physicality standpoint, those matchups make pretty good sense. With the Lakers starters, they don't have a player that naturally matches up with John Morant

very well. That's just a fact, right. Dennis Schroeder is somebody they have on the bench that can do it, but D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reeves they're not going to be able to stay in front of John Morand I wouldn't be surprised if if you saw if you saw darvinham try throwing Jared Vanderbilt at him on some occasions, just to see if he can. But they don't really have a straight up matchup that can do well guarding John at the point of attack. That's just a reality.

So they need to do two things in particular to counteract that. And by the way, John Morand is averaging thirty one points per game against the Lakers this year in two games, albeit somewhat inefficiently. In their one big win, which is post deadline without Lebron, John Morand had this magnificent third quarter. I can't remember exactly how many he had, you a twenty something in the quarter. But they had an extended stretch where they just couldn't do anything with

John Morand. And so they're gonna have to figure out how to contain John Morand in this series. Again, two things that I think they need to do. First of all, play Dennis Schroeder as many minutes as he's capable of playing.

He doesn't need to start. And it doesn't even need to come at the expense of Austin and Dilo, because you gotta remember, there's ninety six minutes available at the two guard positions, right, So Austin and Dilo can both play thirty two minutes and there's still thirty two minutes they're available. So what I would do is I cut Malik Beasley potentially entirely out of the rotation to play Dennis as much as possible, And what I would do

is I'd start with your normal starters. I'd bring Dennison as the first sub, like around the six minute mark for probably Delo right so you can run Delo with the bench group, and then the rest of the game, I would mirror Dennis's shifts with Jah Morant's minutes so that you can keep him on jaw as much as possible. Dennis Router is not some Ja Morant elixir that's going to solve that problem entirely, but he's the lakers best point of attack defender. He's one of the better point

of attack defenders in the league. And at the very least, he's gonna make things more difficult on JAB and that is a big that goes a big step towards making it so he doesn't get as aggressively downhill into the teeth of the Laker defense. Secondly, the Lakers need to find a way to make Ja Morant play in a crowd when he does get downhill. This is a major matchup piece that I like for the Lakers because Memphis is one of the worst spot up teams in the league.

There are only three teams in the entire NBA that are worse at converting spot up possessions than the Memphis Grizzlies, the Atlanta Hawks, the Houston Rockets, and the Charlotte Hornets. Those are the only three teams. They are twenty seven. They convert spot up possessions at less than a point per possession. Now, they brought in Luke Nard to confront this a little bit, but it goes beyond just shooting

the ball. We saw this when we were talking about Isaac Accorro and the Calves and their spot up players converting spot up possessions. Part of it is knocking down open threes, but a lot of it is attacking closeouts, especially in the NBA, because teams are so dialed in defensively that a lot of times higher level clothes at attacking is what allows you to convert spot up possessions. For example, there's a late play I think it was

in OT or late fourth quarter of that. I think it was in the OT actually of that Lakers grizz Lakers Timberwolves game. Ruey hot Chamura catches in the right corner, He pump fakes, shooter goes by him, he gets downhill into the lane. It takes a step back in the lane. He ended up missing it went in and out kind of a toilet, bowled around the rim and came out. But it was like a high level step back ten footer.

That was actually like a pretty damn good shot. And the shot that Ruey Hotchimura's hitting at a high clip this season around fifty percent and out of a great defensive possession from Minnesota. So you get a pretty damn good shot out of a great defensive possession because of high level of closeout attacking, counting catch and shoot threes and everything they do attacking off the dribble. In those closeout situations, the Grizzlies are converting those at less than

a point per possession. That's a legitimate problem for this particular team. That is going to allow the Lakers to load up in the paint. It's also going to put it's also gonna put the Grizzlies in a pretty difficult predicament. I'm really curious to see how Taylor Jenkins confronts this issue because they're gonna have a classic conundrum of weighing

size and athleticism versus offensive skill. My guess is that when the chips are down in this series, Taylor Jenkins is gonna go with offensive skill, especially with how good this Laker defense can be and some of their weaknesses at the point of attack. The guards are the weak point of the Laker defense, right, so I expect them to go with John Morant, Tias Jones, with Desmond Bane,

Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson. That gives them the best combination of keeping their two best defenders on the floor while also having a great amount of offensive skill on the floor. Right Tyas Jones brings a little bit more of a methodical approach to his high pick and roll attack compared to what John Morant does. Here's the problem there. Three of those guys are six five and under and

Dillon Brooks's six six. As a matter of fact, post deadline, the Grizzlies are twenty twenty fifth in rebounding post deadline, and the Lakers are fourth in rebounding. So what used to be an outstanding rebounding team for the Memphis Grizzlies is now one of the very worst rebounding teams in

the league. Because that's what happens when you remove guys like Steven Adams and Brandon Clark from the equation Brandon Clark in particular because Steven Adams he was gonna be a guy that wasn't gonna play a ton of minutes anyways in the playoffs. He's a guy that can be exploited in a lot of ways, right, But although it just getting two shifts out of him usually helps, Brandon Clark was this other versatile athletic forward, especially next to

Jaren Jackson. When the two of those guys would play together this year, they were kicking team's asses. I want to say they were like ten points positive per one hundred possessions with the two of them on the floor together.

Taking him off the floor and having to slide Dylan Brooks down into that power forward position, or having to go with a limited offensive player like a guy like David Roddy or a guy like or going big with a guy like Xavier Tillman, which I expect him to start with Xavier Tilman, but it'll probably be a one shift player each half. But it's gonna put them in

that conundrum of which way they're gonna go. They're gonna be able to pack the paint, especially against the starters, and they're going to even in their best lineups help heavy off of Jaren Jackson and help heavy off of Dylan Brooks, and I think that's going to allow them to make things more congested for John Morand, but it's going to be at the expense of conceding shots to

Brooks and Jaren Jackson. And they've been shooting the ball pretty well lately last fifteen games in the regular season, Dillon Brooks thirty eight percent from three, Jaren Jackson forty two percent from three, So they might be able to shoot them out of that coverage. But Battle one, can they contain John morand keep Dennis Schroeder on him as much as possible, clogged the pain as much as possible?

Battle number two is that rebounding battle. Can the Grizzlies hold up under the physical onslaught of Lebron James and Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroeder again with those smaller lineups, Say, for instance, you go with the closing lineup that the Lakers went with tonight, So Dennis Schroeder doesn't matter if it's Schroeder Dlow, but it's called Schroeder Reeves and then Ruby hotchmurro Lebron James, Anthony Davis, that's seven foot six nine,

six nine. So if you go with Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bain, that's what's Sharon Jackson six eleven six eleven six six six five. That's why that group has not rebounded well after the deadline, and so as a result, they're going to have to figure out how to weigh that gap because if they just like we saw with Atlanta Miami today, even if you get more stops, or i should say last night, even if you get more stops, if you get bludgeoned on the glass, you will lose

the series. And again, you can go big with Xavier Tillman, but he's not a good defensive player and he kind of jinks things up even worse for them Offensively. The Grizzlies are five point two points better per one hundred possessions this year when Xavier Tilman is off the floor. So Taylor Jenkins is gonna have a challenge on his hands to try to figure out how to contend with

that physical back and forth. I want to credit Memphis because they've still somehow been eighteen and ten post headline despite the loss of those guys, And it really comes down to a handful of things. They're still defending really well. They're eighth in defense over that span. They're the best team in the league at taking care of the basketball over that span, so credit to Ties Jones and John Morand.

And they're winning their clutch basketball games. I want to say, they're nine and five in games that have been within five points in less than five minutes remaining, So they're grinding out wins. This has kind of subtly become a team that has a lot of winning characteristics, and again that's gonna happen. This is two consecutive years now where the Grizzlies have just won a shit ton of basketball games.

So as much as we talk trash about them and make fun of Dylan Brooks for talking all the shit that he does and all the John Morante stuff, these are some winners here. Now it's a different level. They have to stamp that with playoff success, but they have some talent there. This particular matchup, though, presents some physical issues for them. Again, the Lakers are a team that

is going to relentlessly attack you in the paint. They are going to drive the ball to the rim, they are going to back you down in the post, they are going to draw fouls, they are going to attack the offense of glass and so that's a battle I expect the Lakers to win convincingly over the course of the series because every step they take to try to mitigate the lakers physical advantages makes them easier to guard.

And just ask the Timberwolves who literally the Timberwolves in the last eleven minutes of that game made two field goals, an uncondes an uncontested Anthony Edwards run out dunk, and an Anthony Edwards little four foot shot in the lane with less than twenty seconds left in ot when the game was over. Those were the only buckets they got in eleven minutes of game time. When this Laker unit locks in defensively, they capitalize on your lack of offensive skill.

Taylor Jenkins is going to have to go with his most skilled offensive players. If it's not Tis Jones, maybe it's Luke Canard, I'm not sure. But whatever they do there, they're going to open themselves up to be exploited physically. All right, two other matchups I want to talk about. What will the Lakers be able to do to counter

the double teams of Anthony Davis. This has become one of the biggest stories for the Lakers lately, and I actually said in the play in preview that this is my biggest thing that I'll be watching with the Lakers in this postseason run. When Ad starts to get double team, the team just goes away from him. It's a big part of why his scoring has been down. And so I have three things that I think the Lakers can do to help Anthony Davis and his struggle with double teams.

First of all, have Anthony Davis attack quickly. When you attack quickly, it's before the double team gets there, and there's usually like the double team is gonna come and try to close gaps on you right but it's a process. If you catch and go right away, you might be able to get through there before the gap closes. It's a reckless move. There's gonna be more turnovers, there's gonna

be more offensive fouls. But by barreling into the lane, he's also going to draw fouls to get to the free throw line, and he's going to collapse the defense and create easier kickout opportunities. When he gets passive and pulls back from the double team, they pressure him, and then he doesn't make the kill pass and he makes that easy kickout pass of the perimeter, which gets them into a more of a traditional closet attacking situation rather

than the pass that beats the double team. So going quickly is the first thing that I would do to try to confront that problem. Number two will do something off the basketball to make Anthony Davis's reads easier. A lot of m NBA teams refer to these as help beaters, but it's some kind of action or movement to help your double teams player have an easier outlet. So, for instance,

backscreening out of the dunker spot. So what a lot of teams will do is they'll ignore the weak side corner and the guy in the dunker spot will the guy who's guarding him will be the guy who doubles and he'll go hard at Anthony Davis. So then the guy guarding the weakside corner will come into the lane to guard the guy in the dunker spot. So by being the guy in the dunker spot and screening that guy, you make it so that he can't close out to that skip pass in the corner. So that's a help beater.

So having Jared Vanderbilt backscreen that man so that he can't close out to Austin Reeves. Then you tell Anthony Davis, hey, that skip passes there. Even if it's looping, he won't be able to close out to it. Right. Another thing is flashing to the middle. Ruy Hatchamurg is really good at this, for instance, and the guys are really good at doing it with Lebron because Lebron hits him every single time. But flashing to the middle of the floor

is another place where you'll find an opening. And then lastly, relocating as a shooter. So when you see Anthony Davis looking around trying to find something in the double team, the other three guys defensively are playing three on four, so they're not really guarding a man so much as they're in a zone ready to close out to guys. Right, So relocating goes a long way towards creating a better window for him to throw a pass. Two. But last,

but not least, just keep going to him. Just because he's getting double teamed and you're not getting the easiest kickout pass in the world doesn't mean it's not a positive possession. There was a play I'm trying to remember exactly what happened, but there was a play in the first half of this game where Anthony Davis got doubled on the left block in the Timberwolves game and he didn't make the kill pass. He made a kickout pass right to the wing, but they ended up swinging it

around and still got a bucket out of it. Anthony Davis double teams this year are still resulting in one point one eight points per possession. That's solid considering how bad it looks. Sometimes AD is not good at it. But the reality is is this is a skilled roster and if you buy them opportunities to attack close out, so they'll further the advantage and they'll make a play. So even if he does struggle a little bit with the double team, keep going to him. It's worth almost

one point two points. Don't just go away from it just because it doesn't feel fluid and natural to you. Last matchup, I have my eye on who can execute better at the end of close games. Again, decision making is gonna play a huge role in this series. It

always does. But these are two outstanding defensive teams and so these are gonna be rock fights and Both of these teams have winning records in clutch situations this year, but it's really gonna come down to Lebron James versus Jamrand and who can make better decisions down the stretch of these games. Lebron has been a little bit up and down in the clutch the last couple of years. It's a product of a bunch of different things, but

mostly injury. Lebron is is a rhythm player. When he's like locked in and in rhythm and he's got all of his little pull up jump shots going, and his legs are strong and he's in shape, like he can be a master closing games, and saw that in the twenty twenty bubble, for instance, and every year before that.

But when he's out of rhythm and he doesn't trust his shot and he doesn't have his legs underneath him, he can be a little clunky, and he'll make decisions similar to the way he would if he was in great rhythm, so taking difficult shots or dribbling the air out of the basketball, or trying to drive to the basket when he doesn't have an advantage like Lebron will make some mistakes like that, and then John Moran is just a textbook young player, right, So who's gonna win

that matchup? My guess, says Lebron, But John Morant winning that matchup at the end of games could go a long way towards giving Memphis a chance to win the series. I'm picking the Lakers and win this series in six games. They've been the better team in almost every facet of the game post headline. They have the two best players in the series. If your ranking players in the series

or going Anthony Davis, Lebron James John Moran. We talked about this a little bit yesterday when we were covering the Warriors, but I'm a big believer in the best player in the series having a swing factor in basketball games in playoff series, particularly because games are ugly, they're rock fights, and having superstar talent that can squeeze advantages out on both ends of the floor usually are the

difference in these games. They also have a massive size advantage with the loss of Clark and Adams, like we talked about earlier, and there are several metrics that bode well for LA. I'll read through these again. I went through most of these in the show, but I'll read through them again, the Lakers are the third best fourth quarter team in the NBA by net rating and the Grizzlies are the fifth worst. So as a team, the

Lakers execute better. The Lakers have the sixth best clutch defense in the NBA post deadline, the Grizzlies are fifteenth, the Grizzlies are twenty fifth, and rebounding post headline, the Lakers are fourth and the Grizzlies are twenty seventh, and spot up efficiency the Lakers are sixteenth. I think it's a good matchup for the Lakers and a good opportunity for them to tighten up a bunch of things if they're serious about making the title run. I still think

the Lakers can to win a title. We're going to do our picks tomorrow, but I'm leaning towards not picking them because I think they just have too many ways that this can go wrong, and I don't think they're the appropriate amount of locked in. We'll circle back to that after this Grizzlies series. If they win convincingly and they tighten up a bunch of things and Lebron looks great, hey, I could be back on board. But right now I

think there are some safer bets. But this Grizzly series is a good first round matchup for the Lakers, a series they can win, and a good opportunity for them to get back to playing a championship brand of basketball, just like we did with the other series. How can the Grizzlies win? John Morante needs to be the best player in the series. If Lebron James and Anthony Davis are as good as they are, the only way you're overcoming that is if it's Jaws the best, and then

Anthony Davis and Lebron. John needs to outplay those guys. I think a big factor here would be the whistle. And I'm not talking about it from the standpoint of cheating. We just talked about this earlier. But John Moran's extremely difficult to keep in front, and we've seen an NBA history. My favorite example is Dwayne Wade in two thousand and six. But really quick guards that beat everybody off the dribble.

Sometimes they enter into a phase of just absurd advantage creation where the rest just don't know what to do with them. And if he just starts beating everybody off the dribble getting to the foul line NonStop, that could go a long way towards him being the best player in the series. Desmond, excuse me, Dylan Brooks and Jaren Jackson, they need to be able to stay out of foul trouble again. Jaren Jackson is throughout his career struggle with

foul trouble. Brooks has struggled a little bit as well, and they just don't have the depth to be able to handle those guys not being on the floor. So they need to be able to defend without fouling. And they need to be able to shoot the ball well from three because the Lakers are going to dare them to do so. Desmond Baine has to provide legitimate secondary shock creation. We found out last year that he doesn't really create off the bounce very well in this playoff setting,

albeit he was dealing with some back issues. They need really good secondary shot creation from him in this series. As a unit. Desmond Baine, Luke Nard Ties Jones, and Dylan Brooks have to compete on the glass because I do think that Taylor Jenkins is going to go small and that's the only way they can hang with the Lakers physically is if those guys really compete on that end. If all those things go well, Memphis absolutely can win

this series. I think a big bell weather for them is I think they need to go up two oh. They need to put real pressure on the Lakers to have to win at Crypto dot Com Arena, especially because I think Lebron's gonna get stronger as the series progresses and he gets in better shape and he starts to tie off some things with his skill set. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. As always, I

sincerely appreciate you support. We'll probably have one or two more series previews coming out in the next before the end of the day. We also have that video with Carson coming later this afternoon. As always, I appreciate you guys, and I'll see you later today. The volume