Hoops Tonight - Lakers-Nuggets Predictions: Will LeBron James & LA FINALLY break their Denver curse?

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another series review for you guys today. After last night, the Los Angeleslkers beat the New Orleans Pelicans and so we're going to be breaking down the four games sweep in the Western Conference Finals last year, the Denver Nuggets versus the Los Angeles Lakers. You guys know the Joe fobergaz sart and subscribe to a brand of YouTube channels you don't miss any more of a videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore json Lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements as well as the film threads

that I do from time to time. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops tonight. And the last, but not least, keep following me on Twitter. Excuse me, keep leaving mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we can keep hitting some mail bags over the course of the rest of this week. All right, on that note, let's talk some basketball. So the Nuggets won

the season series three to zero. I believe they've won eight in a row, dating back to their final regular season matchup from last year, the four games sweep and then three to ohero this year. In terms of per possession basis this year, in three games, the Denver Nuggets are getting one hundred and twenty five points per one hundred possessions and the Lakers are getting one hundred and fifteen points per one hundred posessions. But most of that

has been in the clutch. In seven minutes of clutch basketball this season, and again qualifies as anything inside of five minutes inside of five points, and in seven minutes of clutch basketball this season, the Nuggets have outscored the Lakers twenty seven to ten, So that's a pretty much a beat down in that environment. Last year in the postseason, in eleven minutes of clutch basketball, they outscored the Lakers twenty eight to thirteen. That's basically been the difference between

these two teams in that matchup. The Lakers, they are capable of attacking Denver in the paint, they get a bunch of good shots, they keep the game close, and then late they just can't keep up with them in the half court and the Nuggets just execute and pull away. It's a problem that the Nuggets give most teams in the league, but the Lakers in particular, it's not even one of those things where it's like, oh, they get us two out of three times. No, they get them

every single time. And that's been the main dynamic that has swung this matchup over the course of the last couple of years. Last year it was mostly the defense. They held the Lakers to a sixty eight point four offensive rating and crunch time during the four game sweep. This year, it's mostly about Denver's offense. During the regular season. They're scoring one hundred and ninety three points per one hundred clutch possessions in those three games, So that's where

the difference has been on the gambling front. The Nuggets are minus three to ten to win the series. According to DraftKings, that is the biggest first round favorite so far of the five series that are set by far. The Cleveland Cavaliers at minus one ninety five over the Orlando Magic, are the second biggest favorite that we have in the first round. So Vegas views Denver as a

shoe in to move on. The biggest difference between this series and last year is that the Lakers are much more of an offensive minded team than they were last year. To give you an idea, last year, the line of delineation was the Westbrook trade. After the Westbrook trade, the Lakers won eighteen to eight. They were second best record in the league. Over that span. They were fourteenth in

offense and second in defense. It was a defensive minded team and they rode that twins versus the Grizzlies and the Warriors before they went into that Nuggets juggernaut. This year, for me, the line of delineation is January seventh, and basically what it was was they completely let go of the rope after the n season tournament, and that was a game against the Clippers that kind of re engaged the Lakers, and from that point on in the season,

they went thirty to sixteen. They were the fourth best record in the league over that forty six game span, and they were third in offense in twenty second in defense. So to look at that again, they were second in defense, fourteenth in offense last year in their stretch run this year, third in offense, twenty second in defense. So fundamentally different

type of team. One little line of optimism for Lakers fans who were worried about their defense, because I do think the Lakers are a little bit better defensively than their numbers show. They have a one tozh four defensive rating in their last ten games with Anthony Davis on the floor, which is very good. And you saw the high level defense that they showed versus the Pelicans first stretches.

That's trending in the right direction. But even though to to kind of like tie it all together, I do think the Lakers are a little better than they were last year, and so from that standpoint, I would be shocked if Denver swept them. We could skip ahead to the end here, I'm going to be picking Denver to win the series. Everybody should even if you think the Lakers have a chance to win the series, it is the unlikely scenario compared to Denver holding serve and moving on.

So I would be surprised if I saw anybody legitimately saying they thought the Lakers were likely to win the series. I'm picking Denver that said. I don't think they're just gonna run rough shot over them the way that they did last year. I think it will be a longer series, and that is the main reason why. I just think it's a better Laker team. Lebron's better, the offense is way better. We'll get into some of the details here in just a minute, So let's start with the Lakers

on offense. Third in offense over the last forty six games. Like I mentioned how it's a relentless paint attack in deadly three point shooting, the Lakers are second in points in the paint per one hundred possessions since January seventh. They've been second for the entire season. Really, but they're also shooting much better that the main thing that kind

of pushed them over the top. They're shooting thirty nine point six percent from three in that forty six game span, second best mark in the league, behind the Boston Celtics, who I think are at thirty nine point nine percent, So they're both right there around forty percent. The Lakers have been one of the best three point shooting teams in the league. Just imagine five out sets, guys rolling and cutting towards the paint, tons of shooting on the perimeter.

Everybody in the lineup except for Anthony Davis is a knockdown three point shooter. Ruby Hachimura is a knockdown three point shooter. Lebron James is a knockdown three point shooter. So is d Low, so is Austin and so that kind of is the foundation of what makes the offense work,

screening and rolling and cutting, knocking down shots. When the defense reacts and they're really good at playing advantage basketball, typically what they'll do is they'll run some kind of horn set, usually some kind of three man action around the top of the key, whether it's a double drag or whether it's a screen the screen or type of action. You guys will see some examples when we get into our film session here, but they'll run some sort of three man action to get an advantage. Once they get

their advantage. From there, they just play advantage basketball. And like Lebron can attack close outs, Rueychamura can attack close outs, Austin and Delo can attack close outs, and obviously Anthony Davis cleans up everything around the basket. He's also first in the NBA this year in second chance points. That's where he gets a lot of his damage. To get the defensive rotation, ad will clean up messes at the

rim when guys missshot. So matchups that I'm expecting with the Lakers on the ball, Lakers on the offensive end, CACP will guard D'Angelo Russell to start the series, Jamal Murray will guard Austin Reeves, Michael Porter Junior will guard Ruy Hotcha Mura, Aaron Gordon will guard Lebron James, and nicolea Jokic will guard Anthony Davis. Let's go through some of these specific matchups. So so CACP is that there's a reason why the why they're most likely going to

put KCP on D'Angelo Russell. I do think Austin Reeves is a better all around basketball player than D'Angelo Russell. He's a substantially better defensive player and a really good connective piece on the offensive end of the floor. But

Dlo does have a higher offensive ceiling. He's a better shooter who can get hotter, and he's a better kind of like playmaker and pick roll and so you can do more damage to the Lakers offense on the front end by putting your best perimeter defender on D'Angelo Russell. That's why I think they'll put case Ap on him.

So the Jamal Murray on Austin Reeves matchup is gonna be key because last year, one of the big swing factors was the Lakers ended up playing a lot of Dennis Schroeder, especially because DLO was playing like crap and because they were trying to find somebody that could reasonably

guard Jamal Murray. And so the Lakers had a lot of success with Austin lebron two man game last year, and then basically what they did is they switched Jamal Murray off of Austin and put him onto Dennis Schroeder because Dennis is not as good as a movement shooter or off ballplayer, and they were able to kind of

get by with it. So one of the key parts of this series is going to be can the Lakers keep Austin and de Lo on the floor because if they can keep Austin and Dil on the floor, then they can run their Austin Lebron two man game or dl Lebron two man game, depending on who Jamal Murray is guarding, and keep Jamal Murray engaged defensively. You guys

will see when we get to the film. One of the biggest things the Nuggets will do is basically tuck Jamal Murray on the worst offensive player on the other team and try to buy him as much rest during the game as possible. During the latest matchup that they had in March down the stretch, the Lakers went with Cam Reddish, something that I got I hope we do not see in this series because he can't guard Jamal

Murray and he just nukes their offense. But Jamal Murray was guarding Cam Reddish and literally just standing around and watching stuff happen while the other guys played offense, and so big shock he had the leg strength to rise up and make shots on the other ends of the end of the floor. So one of the key matchups of this series is going to be Can Austin Reeves and D'Angelo Russell remain on the floor together so that

Jamal Murray has to guard a good offensive player. If Jamal Murray has to guard a good offensive player, the Laker offense will have more resiliency in terms of holding up over the course of the series. Specifically the Jamal Murray on Austin Reeves dynamic, which is where the series

will start. Last year, they were doing a lot of pick and pops, so like, Austin's a good movement shooter, so Austin would set the screen, slip to the three point line as Jamal Murray's hedging, Lebron would throw the pass to Austin, Austin would hit a three. This year, the guard screens on Lebron are more slipping into open space. A big part of that's just the spacing provided by

their five out. But you'll see Austin set screens and then slip into like the short roll area, and then there he'll either score if he's open enough, or he'll make reads and kind of pick them apart from there. But like, as long as Jamal Murray is on Austin Reeves, expect Austin Reeves to be involved in a lot of actions.

Early and often in this series. I think, honestly, one of the biggest factors for Denver defensively in the series is going to be their rotations, meaning how good and sharp they are in their closeouts, chasing guys off the three point line, multiple efforts to contain multiple actions, because I do think the Lakers are gonna be able to get them in rotation a lot more than they did

last year. They just have a lot more offensive skill and continuity, and they're just better within their offense this year, So I do think they're gonna be able to get Denver in rotation. Denver's just gonna have to do their job in rotation with their athleticism within their game play and funneling guys in the right direction, chasing the right guys off the line, closing out short on the guys that you're supposed to, Guys like gatee Vincent, guys like

Anthony Davis, guys like Spencer Dinwoodie for instance. Game plan discipline is gonna be big there. Aaron Gordon on Lebron, This is where these playoff matchups kind of show where Aaron Gordon's value is Like Lebron, James Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant are the three best forwards in the Western Conference, and he matches up really well with all three of them.

And then if you get out of the Western Conference and you run into a Boston or you run into a Miami, or you run into a Milwaukee and it's Jimmy or Tatum or Jiannison Tennacumpo, he matches up with those guys too. He has the strength to absorb the bully ball from those guys, and this in the length and quickness to bother the pull up shooting of those guys.

I'm gonna show you a bunch of examples on film of how Aaron Gordon can like beat Lebron to spots, absorb the contact in the chest when Lebron tries to kind of dislodge him and force him into tough fadeaway jump shots. It's one of the few guys in the league that can like actually guard Lebron credibly well. Run's jump shot is going to be key in this regard.

So last year in the regular season, Lebron was getting zero point nine to three points per catch and shoot jumper zero point eight seven points per pull up jumper. Last year in the playoffs, Lebron was getting zero point nine to six points per catch and shoot jumper, zero point six seven points per pull up jumper. So he was just a bad jump shooter all season last year, from the regular season all the way through the playoffs.

This year, in the regular season, Lebron was getting one point two five points per catch and shoot jumper, he was one of the best catch and shoot guys in the league, and zero point nine to four points per pull up jumper, which is far more respectable than the zero point six to seven that he was shooting last year. And so he's actually trending up on the pull up jump shot as well post All Star Break, where I

personally think Lebron's playing at an extremely high level. We'll get to that in a second, but since the All Star Break, Lebron's getting one point zero three points per pull up jumper too, So he's been a very efficient pull up jump shooter in that span. He's just a much better jump shooter overall than he was last year. They're going to need him to make shots in this series. Lebron is probably the biggest point of optimism for any

Laker fan in this series. After the All Star Break, Lebron James is averaging twenty eight points, eight rebounds in tennysis per game on fifty eight percent from the field, which is absurd in forty five percent from three. He's the only player in the league post deadline to be averaging at least twenty seven points per game on at least fifty percent from the field and at least forty percent from three. You just watched him in two do like super important games against the New Orleans Pelicans on

the road, just utterly dominate them. I personally think he's been the third best player in the league post All Star Break, and I would pick him as the third best playoff player going into this playoff run. That is the level that Lebron is playing at right now, especially with Giannis being injured and with Kawhi Leonard being injured. I would put jokicet one, I'd put Luca at two, and I'd put Lebron James at three. That's the level he's at and he's been there for a couple of months.

That is where that is where the point of optimism is right because last year he was hurt, and even when he wasn't hurt, to start the season, he wasn't this level of player. He was struggling to shoot, just wasn't at the same level. Lebron is just better now than he was last year. That's crazy. It didn't make any sense. I don't really have an explanation for you other than he just got in the gym and polished some things up and had another level of motivation. But

Lebron is just at a different level this year. Last year, obviously, like with a foot injury too, it just kind of exacerbated that. I thought Jamal Murray just straight up outplayed Lebron James in the playoffs last year. That is something that I don't think will happen this year. I think Lebron will outplay Jamal Murray or at least meet him at that top tier superstar level. And obviously if Jamal can meet everybody there, then that's just part of what

makes Denver so damn good, right. But I do think that Lebron out playing Jamal would go a long way towards stretching out the series from the four game sweep that it was to something that's more competitive. Yokijn ad Ad just hasn't been able to score on in one on one in the February game, the middle game of the three games they played this year. He get some buckets against him in the post, but for the most part in their matchups, it hasn't worked out well for him.

Eighty's biggest weakness as a player is he never developed a consistent over the top shot, whether it's you know, something in the post or something in terms of a jump shot, and so he's had times where he can make it, but it's never been consistent. And then he can't bully Nicola Jokic the way he does some of the other centers around the league, and since he's bulked up, he's not fast enough to go around him anymore, so he just can't really score on him one on one.

So really it's gonna come down to punishing yokicen help. That means when Yokic is in ball screens, eighty has to hit his floaters in his short jump shots that he gets in pick and roll, and then he's got to attack the offensive glass effectively. Anthony Davis got three hundred and forty two second chance points this year, which is the most in the NBA. Rudy Gobert was second.

Nikola Jokic was third. So that's where Anthony Davis can be impactful offensively scoring him pick and roll and then obviously uh attacking the offensive glass keys for both teams. For the Nuggets, you got to prevent D'Angelo Russell from getting easy look in getting confident. Last year, the Nuggets snatched D'Angelo Russell's heart early in the series and it fundamentally changed the entire dynamic of the series. That is

something they have to do again. If they can do that again, it could get ugly and then we could be looking out a sweep again because the Laker offense when Di Loo goes off, the court does go down a level because of the lack of that kind of like shooting upside right. And then you just go from having five really good offensive players to four really good offensive players and a guy that you can close out

short on and things aren't as effective. And so just KCP getting super physical with Dlo and getting him off to a rough start in the series I think is going to be key. Being sharp in rotation. Like I said, the Lakers are really good at getting that ball to the second side of the floor and generating close out opportunities for their offensive players. All five of their guys can in their starting lineup can capitalize on that type

of advantage. Got some guys off the bench who can do it too, So solid closeouts and contests will be key for Denver, and then they have to keep Anthony Davis off the offensive glass. This is be more about Michael Porter Junior and Aaron Gordon because I do think Jokic is gonna get pulled into help situations quite a

bit in their pick and roll coverages. So your two six to ten guys at the three and four are just gonna have to clean up the glass on the Lakers front, AD's gotta make shots and pick and roll. He's gonna get looks. He has to knock him down. They have to win the driving kick battle. Like I said, Lebron is going to get the ball to the opposite side of the floor. He's gonna generate those close out situations.

So Ruy Di Loo and Austin are gonna have to hit shots, and they're gonna have to attack closeouts and hit higher level close out shots when they get into

late clock situations. Backup guard shooting, I think Spencer Dinwoodie and Gabe Vincent are gonna play a little bit in this series because of needing to find somebody that can guard Jamal Murray, and so those guys can go ice cold from three and struggle offensively, and so getting at least one of those guys to be impactful offensively so that they can play him as an option on Jamal Murray, I think is gonna be key. Lebron James and Anthony Davis have to be able to score in crunch time.

They are combined one for five from the field in clutch situations against the Nuggets this year. They were one for nine in the playoffs last year. So two for fourteen from Lebron James and AD during this seven game losing streak against the Nuggets when the game is within five with less than five minutes left, they have to be better than that. End of story, no other way

to put it. You need your stars to hit shots when Jamal Murray and nicolea Jokic are damn sure going to hit shots on the other end of the floor. And then lastly, got to find a way to keep Jamal engaged defensively as much as possible. A big part of what their issue is Jamal Murray just finds a way to rest on the defensive end, and then he

has the fresh legs to knock down shots. That's where that key dynamic of keeping your best offensive players on the floor and holding up well enough so that you can make Jamal Murray Jamal work and then maybe, just maybe he'll miss some of those shots and give yourself a better chance of pulling out a few of those

clutch games. Moving to the Nuggets on offense, I think Austin Reeves is going to start on Jamal Murray, D'Angelo Russell Reguard, Contavious Callwell, Pope Lebron James will likely start on Michael Porter Junior based on the regular season matchups. Ruyach Mura will likely guard Jokic based on the regular season matchups, and Anthony Davis will guard Aaron Gordon to start the series. So starting with Austin, will Austin be able to do a good enough job. Austin is playing

the best defense of his career as of late. By necessity, the Lakers did not bring in a point of attack defender at the deadline, at least not a starting caliber one, and so Austin had no choice but to basically slot into that primary point of attack defense role. Struggled with it at first, but is really starting to come around as a as a decent point of attack defender. Did a really good job on CJ. McCollum in the did

a really nice job on CG. Mccum in those two Pelicans games, but on film from what I saw, kind of struggled to navigate nicolea Jokic's ball screens. It's been an issue for him, so it will be a challenge. But if he can do an okay job and the Lakers can stay with their starters in crunch time again gives them their best chance to score on the other end and then kind of maintain that confidence level they

need to be able to win. And again, like I mentioned before, if they have to go to a defender, the Lakers instantly become way to guard and things just fall apart from there. Dlo's off ball attentiveness this is part of why Denver is such a bad matchup for D'Angelo Russell. He's bad off the ball, especially when it comes to locking and trailing shooters and watching out for cutters. And so we saw that just the other day against the Golden State Warriors when Klay Thompson lit him up.

Delo just doesn't stay attentive when he's chasing guys off of screens. He gets caught late and gives up too many open looks. He just has to be better. End of story. It's gonna be one of the key factors of the series. As I mentioned, that is another way for KCP to play D'Angelo Russell off the floor is just on both ends of the floor pressure physicality, making him struggle offensively, and then on the other end punishing

him consistently. Denver should keep KCP involved in actions a lot early in the series to try to test D'Angelo Russell. So Lebron guarding Michael Porter Jr. Is more about resting than it is about anything else. I think this series eventually needs to tilt towards Lebron and ad guarding yok Yokic and Gordon. Ruey does a good job. He tries, but he's just not strong enough to deal with Nikola Jokic. Obviously neither is Lebron, but he's stronger than Rui and

can do a better job than Ruy does. So like it's fine if you want to start the series with Lebron and MPJ and rest him as much as possible, but especially in crunch time and potentially for entire games later in the series, Lebron is going to have to take at least one of Gordon or Jokic, and they're gonna have to. And also I believe in mixing up coverages just in general as a philosophy. The last two games this regular season in February March, they almost exclusively

went with Ruey on Jokic and just couldn't get any stops. So, like, I get it for innings eating, but they're gonna have to be able to go to Lebron in ad as much as possible. Ruby just can't guard Yokic. I've got like a half dozen clips that I'll show you guys if Jokic just easily scoring over the top of Ruy Hatcha mura Ad had some success blocking Jokic shots behind Ruey, but for the most part, the coverage just hasn't worked

keys for both teams. For the Lakers, the big thing I'm gonna be calling out on film is smart help versus dumb help. We're gonna go over that on film. But again, like there are guys that you just should never help off of, and then there are guys that you can help and close out short on. Right, there are shots that are high priority, shots that are low priority. I'll show you guys some examples of bad help and

good help when we get to the film. But it's all gonna be about decision making and game plan discipline for the Laker off ball defenders Lebron and Ad like I mentioned before, gonna have to take the Yokic assignment at some point, especially towards the end of the series. Austin and Dila. Austin has to do a credible job on Jamal Murray to keep their best offensive lineups on the floor, and Dil has to be attentive off the

ball and then rebounding. Denver got an offensive rebound on thirty five percent of their own misses in the three matchups this year. That's insane, and it's been a major problem for the Lakers throughout this entire matchup. They simply have to hold up better on the defensive glass. Give you guys an idea Denver dominated fifty five point eight to forty four point two in rebound percentage this season. Last year in the playoffs, it was less bad, but

it was still bad. Fifty one point five to forty eight point five. Transition defense is gonna be a big one. Nikole Jokic is really good identifying when the Lakers don't have good floor balance and pushing the ball at the floor. Guys like Lebron and Ad in particular have to sprint back in transition defense. One of the thing for the Lakers.

Because Yokis didn't shoot the ball as well this year, I would try a short close out on him at the three point line just to start the series, and look, if he hits a few shots, you adjust, But I think you have to try that just as an opportunity to see if maybe you can gain some foothold in the paint defending their the rest of their offense. I would again close out short on yokicch at the three point line. Ad help like. I'll give you an example.

There's a shot that I'll show you guys that Jamal Murray hits over Austin Reeves in crunch time of their last game this year. With how Yokic has been shooting the ball this year, I'd rather have Jokic take a three than Jamal Murray take a short fade away that I think he's gonna make, you know, over fifty percent of the time, and so essentially, like specifically with this matchup to start the series, I'd try closing out short. Yes, I know Jokic is capable of making him maybe he does.

If he does, the Lakers can adjust, But I think you got to try it on the Nuggets front again, play de Lo off the floor and you'll give your defense it's best chance to slow down the Lakers. So on the offensive end, keep Contavious Cobbo Pope involved in actions both on and off the ball to test De Loo's attentiveness and see if you can get the quick hook there or get get his minutes cut down push

in transition. Every single time Anthony Davis goes to the offensive glass, that's always been a big advantage for the Nuggets in this matchup. Attack the offensive glass as much as possible as well yourself. That's been a huge part of Denver success against the Lakers is the Lakers can't keep him off the offensive glass, and then shot making

once again is going to be key. Jamal making shots over the smaller Laker guards in the Nicole Jokic because I think the Lakers will try closing out short at him. To start, Jokic has to hit those picking pop threes. My prediction, I'm picking the Nuggets in six. I think this is going like I think this being a first round series makes it less likely for the Lakers to let go of the rope. Right. They don't get to hang their hat on we made it to the Western

Conference finals. No, if you lose this series it's a first round exit. I think that will allow a little bit more desperation from the Lakers to try to hold up. I think Lebron being better, as well as an evolution of their five out offense, gives the Lakers substantially more offensive firepower than they had last year. Especially Lebron is a jump shooter, so I think the Lakers are going to get a game or two off of them. To put it simply, though, Yo Kitchen Murray are a better

duo than Lebron. James and Anthony Davis in my opinion at this phase in their careers, and Michael Porter Junior and Aaron Gordon are a better trio of role players than Austin Di Loo and ruey Ha Cha Mura. So I just think the Nuggets are a better team and I think they're gonna win. But the pathway for the Lakers, that little crack in the door that they can try to force their way through, got to win Game one. I think they need to give themselves a sense of

belief that they can win the series. I think the worst case scenario would be them getting out executed in crunch time of Game one. I think if that happened, it would just be too much of a gut blow for them to try to recover from. But I think winning Game one is key for them, and then I think they're gonna need to win every single home game in order to try to pull it out in six.

I think that's their pathway. But they're gonna need unbelievable, top tier superstar performances from both Lebron James and Anthony Davis, and they need I think they need Jamal Murray to fail to reach that level. I think they need Jamal Murray, and I think you can do this by wearing him out defensively and just kind of crossing your fingers and

praying you missus shots. But if Jamal Murray plays like the sixteenth best player in the world, in this postseason instead of the eighth best player in the world in this postseason. That I think is an example of where the firepower dynamic could shift towards the Lakers, especially if Ad plays well. Now, a lot of that is unlikely scenario, right, Like I think Darvin Ham needs to make necessary adjustments along the way. Do I trust Darvin Hand to do that? No? Right, So,

like a lot of that is unlikely. But if there was a path for the Lakers, that's what it looks like. Alrighty, I have twenty nine clips for a film session today that we're gonna go to. Go ahead and get started. This is an example of the Lakers base coverage that they go to. So you're gonna see again, after the ball goes up, you're gonna see Anthony Davis, go to Aaron Gordon, You're gonna see Ruy Hatchamura guard Nikole Jokich, and you're gonna see Lebron James on, Michael Porter Junior.

And you're gonna see an easy early example here of this kind of configuration. So again, Ad is gonna be helping off of Aaron Gordon. Jokic is reading the floor here, but he's just gonna get to an easy little pop shot over the top of Ruy. Just never really struggle to get to his spots and make easy shots in the paint against Ruey. Here's an example of Aaron Gordon's

individual defense against Lebron James. Obviously, there's the fadeaway, but watch Lebron's gonna hit the Jets on a little baseline move here, He's gonna spin baseline and really try to overpower Gordon and watch Aaron Gordon absorb the blow Boom, absorbs the blow and forces him to turn again. Now Lebron's gonna go to his right shoulder fade. I hate the shot from Lebron. He hasn't been good at it really since the twenty twenty like he was good at

it in like twenty seventeen to twenty twenty. Those were the stretches when he was good at it, But he hasn't really been good at it since this is a shot that requires a ton of lift. He's actually shooting just twenty six percent on right shoulder fades from the left block this season. But Aaron Gordon forces an ugly miss here. In airball, here's an example of the Lakers base coverage actually working. So Ruey does a really nice job of making Yokic spin back into Anthony Davis. This

is about knowing where your help is. So here Rui has to understand Anthony Davis is on his left hand side, so his main priority is he needs to cut off the baseline. Now, you could see Ruy kind of skewing towards that baseline side, but Jokic is going to spin baseline anyway. Look at Ruey hop way off to that baseline side. That forces Yokic to pivot back and Anthony Davis is able to get there. Again, that coverage is largely not worked, but that's an example of it working.

Here's an example of making Jamal Murray work on defense. Now again, as we see the matchups, Michael Porter Junior is guarding Rui. Jokich is on a d Gordon's on lebron. This will be CACP on d'angela Russell. But also notice they're putting their best permitter defender on d Lo. That's kind of like what I was talking about earlier. That's going to be their strategy. This is gonna end in a switch. Now Ruey has Jamal Murray on him. And Ruy just takes him immediately with a spin move along

the baseline side. Again, not only is that an efficient play, but that's a way that you can make Jamal Murray work on the defensive end of the floor. And again, I don't think you can even do that unless you have five good offensive players. And that's why it's going to be so key to keep d'angela Russell on the floor as much as possible, or at least dangel Russell has to play well enough to stay on the floor as much as possible. Here's an example of smart help

versus dumb help. I talked about this with the Lakers. They need to make sure that they're helping off the right guys in the right situations. So Jamal Murray's going to be coming off of a classic little ball screen from Yokich and he's going downhill. Lebron James is there in help. Lebron is helping there. With Aaron Gordon, d Loo can become the low man. D Lo can drop down and tag Gordon, which will force Christian Brown to

shoot a three. Right. This is Michael Porter Junior. This is the one guy you don't help off of Anthony Davis digs down on Jamal. Now you've got one of the best three point shooters in the league wide open. Jamal Murray makes the read. Michael Porter Junior knocks down the shot. So that's an example of dumb help. That's a help that doesn't serve any purpose and leaves the wrong guy open. Here's another example of Jokic scoring easily

over Ruy Hachimura. Big one here is Jokic got blocked on his last post up attempt again against Ruy, So now watch, he doesn't like the spacing year He's gonna clear Gordon out, but he doesn't want Anthony Davis to be able to easily get to one of his layup finishes, So instead of taking something towards the rim, he's gonna take a short fade away. This is a really high percentage shot that Anthony Davis can't really help on. That's also an example of why I think Lebron James is

eventually gonna have to get into the mix. Ruy Hachimura just can't really guard. Just can't guard Yokich, not even make him slightly uncomfortable, whereas Lebron might be able to. Here's another example of the Austin Ruy two man game. Another switch. Ruey settles for a jumper here, but I would like to see them just kind of go to

this action a lot to make Jamal Murray guard. Here's Jokic scoring over Rui again, little wedge screen to get post position, just easy gets to his footwork, knocks down that little left shoulder fade. Here's an example of where that can go wrong for Jokic again. This is another Anthony Davis block along the back line. But watch Jokic is not taking it over the top shot. He's going towards the rim. Notice his last two where turnaround fade away over his right shoulder, turn around hook shot over

his left shoulder from distance. This is going to be an aggressive move towards the basket, and ad is gonna be able to get to it again. See he goes to the rim, Ady gets there. That's where that's where like for Jokic, just as an adjustment for him when Anthony Davis is in help, he's gonna have to take

over the top shots. Alrighty, So here is another example of a help that I think Spencer Dinwood he should have thrown but didn't, so this would have been smart help had Spencer did it, but he did not do it. So Spencer is guarding Peyton Watson an if he shooter right, so Peyton Watson is gonna go stand in the corner. Spencer is the in best position to help here. Spencer and Ruey are the helpers, right. Jokicch is working against Yo.

Kitch is working against Ad. He kind of gets Ad a little bit onto his left side so he can get to a little right handed hook. Ruy probably doesn't need to help here because this is literally a ten foot hook shot, so one of the lower percentage ones that Yokich will take. He obviously can make it, but I'd prefer Rui to stay home here. That said, if Rui's gonna help Spencer Dinwood, he can't have his back turned facing towards the worst shooter on the floor. That

makes absolutely no sense. That is an example of not taking advantage of smart help. Dinwoody should be drypping here to help on Gordon because Peyton Watson is not in position around the rim, but Gordon is, so when Yokic is in his deep drop coverage, shot making is going to be key. This is an example of D'Angel Russell hitting a little fataway jumper over Justin Holiday in the drop coverage. Look, get off our back, yokicches, They're gonna

need Austin and Delo to hit these shots. Here's an example of a cross green set that I really really like from Denver, And the main thing that makes this set work, in my opinion, is the actual floor setup. Notice where everybody is. So we've got eighties guarding Gordon in the left corner. Right from here, we have Austin Reeves guarding Reggie Jackson. We have Justin Holiday spacing to the right corner. We have Christian Brown actually setting the screen.

Lebron James is actually guarding Christian Brown. He's in help at the rim here. But watch as Jokic comes off of this screen, Ad ends up having to show right. So because Ad has to show here, that leaves an easy baseline cut from Aaron Gordon. Now, one of the things I'd like to see the Lakers do to counter this is have Lebron James be more active in help. He kind of took this possession off. That's not going to be good enough. But I do love the configuration

of this set. This is actually a perfect little freeze frame. If Ruy's gonna chase, then ad has to show, which easily opens up the cut along the baseline side, and that's definitely a lob, not a shot. Here's an example of D'Angel Russell being inattentive off the ball defensively, So Justin Holliday is just gonna come up like he's coming off of this this wide pin down, but then he's gonna slip watch boom, just easy little back cut on Dangel Russell. He's not paying attention, gives up a dunk

that's just not gonna cut it. In this matchup, Denver just makes you pay every single time you make that kind of mistake. So one of the reasons why I have some optimism for the Lakers in this matchup centers around the fact that the Lakers did a bunch of stupid stuff over the course of this regular season. Obviously, in the matchup earlier in the year, I think it was in it was either late January or early February, D'Angel Russell didn't play, and the Lakers are just a

different offensive team when D'ANGELA Russell's not out there. But this one, Dilo was healthy and out there. And the Lakers starters actually won their minutes in this game, but down the stretch of the game, the Darvnham went heavy into Cam Reddish, and Cam Reddish is one of the worst offensive players in the league in a not very good perimeter defender, but he for some reason has a reputation with Darvin Haam as being a good perimeter defender.

Your guess is as good as mine, But I got some footage in here just kind of demonstrating that Cam Reddish is not actually capable of guarding Jamal Murray. So my hope is that we don't see Cam in this series just he's not actually staying glued. He's not bothering him, he's not pressuring him, he's not making him feel uncomfortable. That's like one of the easiest shots he'll ever see Jamal Murray take. So here, these next two clips are an example of a set that the Lakers can run

that I think has some success against Denver. These are double drag sets, so Lebron's gonna have the ball. This is the setup of a double drag, so we've got our shooters in the corners. These are both dead eye catch and shoot guys that you can't leave open, right we Lebron James, our primary ball handler, D'Angelo Russell is setting the first screen. Anthony Davis is setting the second screen. So what's gonna happen here is AG's gonna chase over

the top and Yokich is gonna be in a high drop. Right, So Gordon's chasing Jokich is on high drop. That means because Gordon's on the high drop, uh, or excuse me, because yo Kich is in the high drop. That means Anthony Davis can slip behind the action. But because you've brought the size in Gordon and Jokic out here, it's smaller players on the back line. Christian Brown is going to stay home to be ready to deal with D'anngela Russell.

So D'Angel Russell is covered, but ad is getting tagged by Jamal Murray and Ady just easily catches and finishes at the basket. So the Lakers run it again on the very next trip down the floor, and this time they switch the first screen. So here we go, same exact action. Now, Notice as it's happening, Aaron Gordon is now going to allow Christian Brown to take Lebron so Christian Brown is trying to fight through that screen. Yokic is in the high drop. Here's our high drop configuration.

But instead Aaron Gordon, instead of prioritizing d LO, he prioritizes the role. Why is he prioritizing the role? Because Anthony Davis just got a bucket there. Lebron makes the kickout pass, Delo misses this shot. That's a fantastic look. So double drag with Dlo, Lebron, and AD is going to be an action that I'd like to see the Lakers run a lot in this series. Here's another example

of excellent individual defense by Aaron Gordon on Lebron. This is going to come out of one of the Lakers' favorite sets, which is a little dribble pitch with Lebron on the right wing. So what they'll do is we'll have Dlo set a little pin down. But this is a just basic a dribble pitch to Lebron, and again, look at Gordon jump out there. He actually gets out there enough. Because Lebron's been one of the best catch

shoot players in the league this year. As I said, he's up at like a point in a quarter per shot. So Gordon has to get out there. So look, he's caught on this screen. Lebron could catch and shoot, but watch this athletic move from Gordon to close the gap. Boom that takes away the jumper. Now Lebron sees this driving angle and it is trying to attack it. Watch Gordon somehow recover and beat him to the spot. Now he's beat him to the spot, and now he's turned

Lebron into the tough fadaway jump shot. Now again, Lebron can make that shot, and he has been making that shot a lot this season. But Lebron is one of the most efficient guys around the basket. So he's turning Lebron from the more efficient version of himself into the less efficient version of himself. Here's an example of the high firepower in the Laker offense. And this is a bench group two Atarian Prints and Spencer Dinwoodie out there. So we're gonna get multiple actions. We get a little

brush screen for Spencer Dinwoodie. That's gonna flow into a double screen for D'Angelo Russell. Jamal Murray does a good job in their high drop. They tag Anthony Davis, Spencer dinwood He's not a good enough three point shooter for him to be much of a threat. Ball gets swung to Torrian Prince Tory and Prince drives kicks the dl Delo swings it around to Spencer Dinwoode. Now we're running another screening action. We're gonna get a low drop this

time because Spencer's not as good as a shooter. So multiple screening actions, a bunch of ball in player movement, and Denver has defended it well. But ball gets swung with seven seconds left to Ruy Hotchimura. Ruey hotch Murray has a size advantage against Peyton. Watson works his way into the lane hits a nice little fadeaway jump shot over his right shoulder. So again, this Laker offense is a lot more high power than it was last year.

Just by the way it's configured. Every player on the roster in the core group kind of playing better than they did last year. It's a big part of why I expect them to hold up a little bit better offensively in this series. Here's another example of Camretti's just not being able to make Jamal Murray uncomfortable. Little hegend recover from d Lo. So again he's ball pressuring this time at least a little bit. But watch how easily Jamal shakes him here and again, like I would understand

like it was Jared Vanderbilt. Like, let's say Jared Vanderbilt returns in this series, and I reached out to my guy Jovan Booja and asked him and he said, he's still in his conditioning ramp up, So like there's no timetable necessarily for him to return. He may not even show up in this series. Jared Vanderbilt is the one guy where I'm like, oh, he might not be as good offensively, but he's actually going to be able to

make Jamal Murray feel a little bit uncomfortable. That is the reason why I would lean that way if he was healthy. But I mean, what's crazy with that though? Is even Jared Vanderbilt, as limited as he is, is a much better offensive player than Cam Reddish because of his ability to operate within the five out offense. Again, I just like Cam Reddish, good kid, getting a lot better over the years, but not really a rotation NBA player for a good team should not see the floor

in the series. Here's an example of some dumb help from Spencer Dinwiddie. So Spencer Dinwiddie, you hear, is guarding Michael Porter Jr. Michael Porter Junior is gonna come off of a screening action on this side of the floor. But this is what's bothering me about this specific set, So yo, get just setting a little backscreen for Justin Holliday. Aaron Gordon's running like a fake DHO with Jamal Murray.

So you've got Jamal Murray and Justin Holiday coming downhill, but you have Lebron James and Anthony Davis there in help to contain that action. Spencer Dinwiddie, for some reason, stunts in the lane to offer extra help. As soon as he does, Michael Porter Junior flashes up high and ends up getting a clean look at three as a result, or clean look at a jump shot as a result. That's the type of attentiveness off the ball and avoiding

the bad help that I'm talking about. Here's another example of the Lebron Austin Reeves two man game and their ability to get downhill. So again this is coming against Justin Holliday who closed this particular game instead of Christian Brown. But I imagine this is contavious Callwell Pope. Also, this is when the Lakers had Spencer Dinwoodie and Cam Reddish on the floor to non shooters. But just imagine this configuration in the actual game. This would be Jamal Murray. Okay,

this would in all likelihood be D'Angelo Russell. This wouldn't urges me. This would be Dangel Russell, and this would be ruly hotch to Murray. Right. So, like in this case, Jamal Murray's going to be on the ball, which means that Contavious Callwell Pope's going to be down here on d LO. So with this action, they're not gonna want to switch it. So they are going to chase, which is going to open up the pocket pass. Gordon is

going to have to show. Otherwise Aaron Gordon's gonna get downhill and that's going to open up little roles to the rim for Lebron James. That's an Again, I really want to see a lot of Lebron Austin two man game in this series, especially when they're with their starting group. Another example of Cam Reddi is just not being able to guard Jamal Murray. I'm sorry for picking on him,

I just I'm still irritated about that game. In case you guys can't tell, here's an example of Austin Reeves hitting a little rescue possession shot over over Jamal Murray. I think if Austin can do a little bit of this in this series to cancel out some of what Jamal does, that would go a long way. So again, late clock five seconds left hits a little turnaround jump shot over the top of Jamal Murray. That would be a big way for Austin to kind of minimize some

of Jamal's impact. Here's another example of what would probably I could go either way on this one, but I'm gonna call it bad help. So really getting attacked by Jokic Anthony Davis trying to stunt Anthony Davis clearly thinks that he's gonna be able to get back in time to get to Gordon, but instead Austin Reeves abandons Justin Holliday to kind of box Gordon out. When he does, there's a wide open three for Justin Holiday. Watch Anthony Davis's reaction, He's like, what are you Before it even

goes in, He's like, what are you doing? So like again, part of that's just the predicament that Denver puts you in You're gonna get in some trouble there. But those are the types of smart help situations where it's like Aaron Justin Hallay is a really good corner three point shooter. Probably can't leave him there. Probably have to trust Anthony Davis to try to clean that up. Here's yet another Austin Reeves Lebron James pick and roll again in a

configuration in closing time. I think you'd imagine this being Jamal Murray actually guarding on the ball. One of the things I want you to keep an eye on this possession. Watch Jamal Murray, hands on knees, hands on knees, hands are still on knees, hands are still on knees, and a little bit of a lunch step. Hands up. Okay, he's completely and totally in chill mode. And like when I tell you, he was doing that the entire home stretch of the game. That's the downside of going with

the defensive personnel. So when I talk about how it's important for Denver to play d'angela Russell on the floor, off the floor, that's why, because if they can play the Angela Rouss off the floor, Jamal Murray can chill. If Jamal Murray can chill, then Jamal Murray will have the legs to make the shots. If you can wear them out a little bit, it'll be harder for him to make the shots and maybe he'll miss if you

give yourself a better chance to win the game. But watch it one more time, just to see the configuration again. Once Lebron sets the screen, it's gonna be that will be Jamal Murray chasing over the top. Gordon is gonna be in a drop, which is gonna open up Lebron James roles to the rim. Here is another example. This is crunch time. It's a one point game with three minutes left. I really wanted to see the Lakers go to Lebron James or Anthony Davis on Jokich at this point,

but nope, they stick with their base coverage. You get what you deserve if you know this is gonna happen and you know he can't handle it, like of course, like what did you expect like that? He's been doing that all games, So like I again, eventually in this series, Lebron and Ad are gonna have to take more of the onus to garden Kole Jokich. Here's the Jamal Murray shot over Austin Reeves. So we're gonna skip down the floor again. You could see Yoki's pointing. He's like, Jokic

knows is like this is going to Jamal. He wants Jamal to take it. They're clearing the side. He weighs everybody off. He's pointing, telling everyone to clear out. Here comes now. Like I talked about earlier, this is where I want to see Anthony Davis early in the series come down and offer double teams and basically offer late closeouts on Jokic, just until he demonstrates that he can consistently knock down the three said. They come with baseline

help from Ruey. This is honestly good defense from everybody involved. Austin Jamal hit the same move on Dangela Russell earlier in the game and give up a layup here. Austin does absorb the contact and force him into a tough drifting fade away and Ruey comes over and help. Now, Mindji, Aaron Gordon's in really good offensive rebound position there, which is another reason why ad needs to come down. But

this is honestly well defended. But that's a shot that Jamal Murray will miss more frequently if his legs are tired. You can't have his legs be tired if you have him chilling Guardian Cam Reddish on the other end of the floor. Once again, watch Jamal Murray and chill mode guarding Cam Reddish. He's chilling, he's chilling, he's chilling. We're gonna get a Lebron ad pick and roll that Lebron rejects.

He drops it off to Ad Michael Porter Junior. Really nice defensive play at the rim there to block Anthony Davis. But just another example of Jamal chilling on Cam Reddish. And then here just one more time to add insult to injury. Watch how easily Jamal just kind of works around Cam and gets all the way down into the lane. So yeah, those are the kinds of mistakes schematically that the Lakers cannot afford, especially for Darvin Ham to make.

But anyway you guys can see on film the main kind of things I'm talking about, it's gonna be very important to keep the Lakers' best offensive players on the floor. For Denver, that's gonna be the battle that they need to try to win to try to play one of the skill players off the floor to give themselves an opportunity to chill, for Jamal Murray to chill, which will help improve his chances for shot making. You saw the damage on the offensive glass, you saw some of the

transition stuff, you saw some of the matchups. You saw the job that Aaron Gordon can do again. I'm picking Denver to win, but I do think the Lakers have a chance, and I am expecting it to be a longer series. I think the biggest game of the series is Game one. I think if the Lakers are gonna have any chance to win this series, they have to go in and win Game one. We will be going live on YouTube after the final buzzer on Saturday of Game one of this series, so make sure you guys

head over to YouTube and to see it there. Hope you guys enjoyed the breakdown. The game plan as of right now is tonight. We're going live after six re seat, so I will see you guys on YouTube. Then the volume