Hoops Tonight - Knicks vs. Cavaliers Playoff Prediction, Warriors-Kings Prediction: Will Steph Curry & GS start another NBA Finals run?

Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements. Also going to be doing a lot more footage breakdowns on my Twitter feed as we had into the playoffs last been not least it. For whatever reason, you guys miss one of these episodes and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight, all right, let's talk. Let's talk some basketball.

So a couple of series notes here before we get into the weeds. The Calves are a minus two oh five favorite. That's a significant favorite to win the series right now. I do think that's inflated by the Julius Randall news. Though the Knicks won the season series three

to one, including winning three in a row. They won a game where they held them to just eighty one points, they won a game where Julius Randall lit them up for thirty six points and hit the eventual game winner, and then they won a game in Cleveland where Julius Randall was out and Jalen Brunson had a monster night. I think he had almost fifty and he outplayed Donovan

Mitchell to beat the Calves in Cleveland. So the Cavs have been the better team all season from a standings in a big picture standpoint, but the Knicks have been a better team within this matchup. They both have an elite top five unit. The Cavs have the best defense in the league by defensive rating and the Knicks are the fourth best offense in the league. And both teams are top seven in net rating, so both teams probably

feel very good about their chances. I think this is by far the most interesting series in the Eastern Conference first round. East is a little rough there in that first round, a lot of somewhat uninteresting matchups. Hopefully we get Miami Boston to get one more interesting look. But everything will get entertaining once we get to round two with how good the top that conference is. But I wanted to start with Nick's calves because this is my

favorite series out east. On the ju Julius Randall front. He's sprained his ankle a couple of weeks ago, I expect him to play, so moving forward with this breakdown, I'm going to be moving forward under the assumption that Julius Randall plays in every game, and then he's roughly eighty percent of what he was before the injury. Just think like a little out of shape and a little out of rhythm. I'm expecting that as part of this

calculus that I'm looking forward in this series. And then obviously if he's out and misses a significant chunk of the series, that makes this a whole lot easier, doesn't it. Because in the playoffs, with the way they'll be able to load up on Jalen Brunston, I'm just not sure how they'd be able to win out Julius Randalls. So obviously that's a big swing factor there. But we're going

to move forward as though he is healthy. So last year, the way we did these serious previews is we kind of just did offense defense, So we kind of focus on one side of the ball for both teams, and then we focus on the other side of the ball when the other team had possession and what those matchups would look like. I want to do it a little bit different this year. I want to kind of look at big picture matchups and I want to bounce around

between both sides of the floor. As a result of that, I think it allows us to kind of target the specific battles that a team has to win in order to win a series. We'll see how if it lasts through all eight breakdowns, but that's how I'm doing this one to start. So first of all, as we're looking at the shot creators for both teams, I kind of look at RJ. Barrett and Karris Lavert as two different

sides of the same coin. They're both tertiary shot creators who are both kind of like frustrating for their fan bases from time to time. Like RJ. Barrett can get tunnel vision and really start to play kind of on an island with himself, and he can really force the ball to his left hand side and is pretty heavy

to the basket, not a good jump shooter. And then Karros Lavert's kind of the opposite of that, the same type of kind of tunnel vision guy, but he's much more of a pull up jump shooter and he shoots the ball well from three. He's actually one of the better pull up three point shooters that we have in the league, but he takes a lot of pull up jump shots. So it's a similar type of frustration that you experience with RJ. Barrett, just kind of in a

different archetype. Offensively, I kind of look at those two guys as a wash, and I would imagine that both fan bases will be largely frustrated with them throughout the series. I do think RJ. Barrett is a slightly better defensive player than Karris Lavert, but not enough to have a major impact on this series. And I don't think Karris

Lavert is a weak point defensively. So what I want to focus in on is the Brunson verse Mitchell matchup and the Randall verse Garland matchup, because those are the two shot creation matchups that I do see having a large impact on the outcome of this series. So, first of all, Donovan Mitchell is the best player in this series. He deserves that recognition going in He's got a much more extensive playoff resume, and I think overall right now he's just a little bit better. But that's the key there.

I do think it's a lot closer than people think going into this series. You know, it's funny. I was talking with my buddy Josh, who's on our production staff

here at the Volume for Hoops Tonight. He's big Knicks fan, and he was talking on Twitter the other day about how Knicks fans are very at peace with the Jalen Brunson Donovan Mitchell situation, having not got Donovan Mitchell over the summer, and you know, it's pretty critical of the Knicks for not being more aggressive to get Donovan Mitchell. That said, the reality was, is Jalen Brunson being as good as he ended up being is what made it so that the Knicks fans could move on. That's why

they're kind of at peace with it. Had Jalen Brunson been more or less what he was with the Mavericks, it might have been more frustrating because Donovan Mitchell is, you know, legitimately a second tier superstar right, and Jalen Brunson was something beneath that. But Jalen bruns has gone up a level in this season, even above and beyond what he was in last year's postseason, which was a

legitimate twenty point per game score. Right. This season, he's actually been better than Donovan Mitchell in every single phase of shot creation. I wanted to break this down for you guys. First of all, Donovan Mitchell and pick and roll one point one points per possession including passes, Jalen Brunson one point zero eight. Not much of a gap there. In isolation Donovan Mitchell one point zero two points per possession including passes, Jalen Brunson one point one, so significantly

better beating switches in isolation. And Jalen Brunson as a whole, like a whole postop element to his game. He's actually run eighty post ups this year for seventy six points, including back in the game that they played in January where the Knicks one one, five, one three in crunch time, he had a play where he backed Donovan Mitchell down to kind of the elbow and hit him with a

turnaround jumper. Very important shot in that game out of the post over the top of Donovan Mitchell, He's actually been a more success as shock creater, and the big part of that is he's just a much much better passer than Donovan Mitchell. I think that's kind of what allows him to bridge that gap despite not being the otherworldly scoring force that Donovan Mitchell has been throughout his

entire career, including in the postseason. I think Donovan and you'll see that, particularly at the end of games, because Donovan Mitchell can have a little bit of that Russell Westbrook thing going on, where he's can force the action and play hero ball a lot, whereas Jalen Brunson is a little more methodical, a little bit more of a slowdown and patiently make reads kind of guy. I think that's what allows him to bridge that gap despite not being the same level of athlete and shot maker that

Donovan Mitchell is. But I still, especially when we factor in the nature of the postseason, the way that physicality increases, the way that your athleticism becomes a bigger advantage in that setting, I still give Donovan Mitchell as a clear edge is the best player in the series because of and I think he's earned that right going in given the way that he's played in his postseason career, But it's not much of an advantage in my opinion. But I would say that he is the best player in

the series. And also I wouldn't be surprised if we looked back two weeks from now and Jalen Brunson had outplayed him. But going into the series, I think from a prediction standpoint, that's a matchup that the Calves will win in favor of Donovan Mitchell by some small margin. Randall versus Garland, these are the two bona fide secondary shot creators. I actually think Randall has a significant edge here, kind of a similar sized edge to what I'd give

Mitchell over Jalen Brunson. He's been more efficient as both a pick and roll shot creator and ISO shot creator than Darius Garland. This year. He's averaging one point zero seven points per pick and roll including passes, compared to one point zero three for Darius Garland, one point zero two points per ISO compared to zero point eight seven for Garland, not a strength in his game, and one point zero six points per post up. And this is an important part that I've talked a lot about with

Julius Randall this year. One of my favorite parts of his game and something that I think translates really well to the postseason, is that classic like we run an action or we sprint down in transition and get a cross match, but whatever it is, Julius Randall gets a smaller defender on him and they space the floor. The Knicks are an excellent spot up team. They're third in

the league and converting spot up possessions into points. And he can back his way down to that ten fifteen foot area and just hit somebody with his shoulder and go to that fade away over his left shoulder that he can hit at a high clip. And that is rock fight basketball. That's the kind of thing that doesn't depend on getting a ton of legs into a shot. That's a twenty six foot step back shot, you know

what I mean. It's a shot that is very dependable on that stage of the NBA playoffs, especially when you have a size advantage. That Julius Randall has had an incredibly impressive scoring season this year, and it's a big part of why the Knicks has been so good offensively this year. And I think the last thing kind of as a team perspective, because as I look at that again,

it's pretty even. You've got the two guards that are your high pick and roll shot creators, and then you've got this big forward for the Knicks, and then another more playmaking oriented guard for the Calves, and then you've got these two weird tertiary creators in r. J. Barrett and Karas Slavert. But there's more variety in what the New York Knicks do, and I think that's that, in combination with their spot up talent, is a big part of why I think they've been the better offensive team

this year. Everything the Calves do, it is at a high pick and roll. As we told you earlier, Mitchell is not nearly as good at converting isolation possessions as Randall and Brunson. He's much more of a pick and roll shot creator, and Darius Garland's bad at converting isolation possessions. He's a pick and roll shot creator. So everything the Calves do is at a high pick and roll. In fact, they were in the fourth most pick and rolls in the league this year, and the most among these solidified

playoff teams, in the top six in both conferences. So simply put, among the teams that have playoff spots locked down, nobody runs pick more pick and roll than the Calves. That's their very one dimensional approach in that regard, Whereas with the Knicks, you know, both Brunson and Randall can run pick and roll, but they both can beat you and switches in both the io and out of the post. There's a lot of variety with the way that they

can attack. We saw in the last matchup between these two teams, Jalen Brunson torched the Calves out of high pick and roll, hitting pull up threes down the stretch. But then in their previous matchup back in January, we saw Jalen Brunson in the entire fourth quarter pretty much turn his back to the basket and operate out of the out of the post on that right elbow right.

So there's just a little bit more variety with what the Knicks too, which makes them harder to defend, and then they're much much better at converting spot of possessions. That's a key factor in this series. The Knicks are the third best spot up team in the league and the Calves are the fifth worst spot up team. In the league. They're twenty sixth in the league at converting spot of possessions. So that's where you get that big gap on the offensive end of the floor. Another a

big matchup part. I wanted to look at here, and this is where we zoom in on the spotting up thing side of things, Josh Hart versus the plethora of Cavs players that are going to play at the forward position in various off ball three and D roles. I remember, I was initially confused by the Josh Hard acquisition. It didn't really make sense to me because it was kind of like an all in type of trade. If I

remember correctly, they gave up a first round pick. It was very much like the type of movie you expect a team that has wheel championship aspirations to go after. But hey, it was an indicator that the Knicks clearly are thinking that way, and he's been absolutely amazing for them. He's an excellent defender with the versatility to guard both

forwards and guards. He's an outstanding spot up player because of his combination of the ability to respectively hit down respectably knocked down threes while also being good at attacking clothes outs. It's a highly underrated part of spotting up because that's what allows you to on the possessions where they chase you off the line or you pump fake

and go beat someone off the dribble. That's what allows you to convert those into points by either attacking the basket with athleticism or making that awesome next read to the right guy who's going to be able to convert the possession. That's an important part of the game of basketball that gets overlooked when we just stare at three point percentages. But Josh Hart is converting spot up opportunities at one point two five points per possession since joining

the Knicks. Here's how one's saying that is a guy like Michael Porter Junior for the Nuggets is converting him at about one point three points per spot up possession. So he's just a small level beneath the best spot up players in the league since joining the Knicks, and he does all these other little things well. Cuts to the basketball averages two offensive rebounds per game, there's a lot of offensive turns, many of those just into putbacks.

He's the perfect glue guy to put the Knicks together. In fact, in three hundred and forty four possessions this year. With Randall, Brunson, and Hart on the floor together, the Knicks are outscoring teams by eighteen point one points per one hundred possessions, which is amazing. As a compare, I'll

be in a much larger season long sample size. The Knick sample size is shrunk by the fact that Hart was traded for and then you know, Jalen Brunson missed some time that foot injury, and then Julius Randalls miss some time to ankles haven't played as much together. But in a much larger sample size that calves unit. Let's just narrow it down to their best forward with Darius

Garland and Donovan Mitchell. So Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, those three guys are just seven point one points positive per one hundred possessions. Again, much larger sample size never apples to apples comparison, but it just goes to show you as a point of reference, how dominant the Knicks have been when they've had Randall and Brunson with a guy like Josh Hart to tie it all together with

all the little things that he does well. This particular matchup that Josh Hart versus the Calves Wings matchup, I think is going to be one of the biggest swing factors in the series because, like I said, slight edge to Mitchell over Brunson, slight edge to Randall over Garland, you know, Karis Lavert, RJ Barrett, you know who the hell knows what's gonna happen with those guys. This is going to be a massive swing factor in this series

in my opinion. That idea of what Josh Hart can do off the ball as a glue guy to put everything together. And obviously Evan Mobley does this in a very different way for Cleveland. We're gonna talk about him here in a minute. I have a whole kind of like segment put together for Evan Mobley, but that specific matchup is something I'm gonna be keeping a very close eye on because here's the deal. This is the way

I look at it. If Donovan Mitchell's the best player in the series, and if the Calves have home court advantage, and there's a little bit of a question mark surrounding Julius Randall and his ankle and Cleveland's defensive front line. The Jared Allen, Evan Mobley thing and all they can do to dominate teams on the interior. If Josh Hart was on the Calves, I'd be picking the Calves in

a heartbeat. But Josh Hart and the overall, you know, Quentin Grime, the Emmanuel quickly, the overall as a group much more, much more aggregate offensive skill in ball handling and shooting from the role players depth on the bench. That is the biggest swing factor for me in this series. That's what allows a team like the Knicks to overcome all those advantages that I just broke down for the Calves.

And with the Calves wings and again, they generate just one point zero two points per spot a possession, which is twenty sixth in the league. It's like guys like Isaac Cora, Lamar Stevens, Chetty Osman, Dean Wade, the Danny Green traded just isn't moving well enough for them to use him. All of them have either not been hitting shots well enough, not attacking closeouts well enough, or doing those doing those things well, but not defending well enough

for it to matter. And that's so important for the Calves in particular, because they love to use their forward,

whether that's Lamar Stevens or Isaac Cora. They love to use that guy to take primary point of attack assignments like guard the other team's best guard, and so going with an offensive option there puts you in a predicament where now you have to ask Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell to do that, and not only are they not good at that, but they're also guys that have an enormous amount of offensive responsibility on a team that doesn't

really have much offensive skill beyond their two guards, and so it kind of puts them in this predicament where they don't know who to play now. The biggest optimism point there is Isaac a Coral has been shooting extremely well since going into the starting lineup. In thirty eight games since joining the starting lineup, is shooting forty four percent from three, and again, he's probably the best point

of attack defender on the roster. He's probably gonna draw the Jalen Brunson assignment from the opening tip of Game one of this series, and so it's whether or not the Calves can somehow level out that matchup a little bit by having guys like Isaac a Cora shoot the lights out by having Lamar Stevens knocked down more threes than he's been hitting by getting something out of Dean Wade and Chetty Os and that could go a long way to leveling things out. So here's the deal. I

think the Knicks are gonna win this series. I'm picking them in six games. Now, before I go any further, I have this is an obligatory thing that I have to do. Predictions are hard. These are just my best guesses. If it was easy to do this, we'd all be in Vegas. Instead of watching these games as fans, we'd all be in Vegas gambling on these games. This is the beauty of the game of basketball. It is a living organism of a five man unit. It is extremely

difficult to predict. That's where the fun is. So just because I predict one team over another doesn't mean I'm going to be right. I'm gonna pick eight series. Guarantee you I get more than one of them wrong. Just the nature of the game of basketball. And if I do get all eight right, it's gonna be pure luck. But part of my job is I have to make a pick. I'm going to pick the Knicks to win the series in six games. But the Calves absolutely have a chance to win the series. Hell, they're favored to

do it. I would imagine most of you guys listening disagree with me, and so I want to provide a case for why I think the Calves can win. Now again, just quick recap the way the Knicks can win. I think their shot creators are a little bit better and a little more verse to Toll, which is important in the playoffs. I think their ability to help off of Evan Mobile in the small forward position will allow them

to defend well enough in this matchup. Despite not being a great defensive team to the right during the regular season. The Knicks were eighteenth and defense during the regular season, allowing about one hundred and fourteen point two points per one hundred possessions. But they have guarded Cleveland well. They have a one on nine point four defensive rating against Cleveland, and to give you a perspective, the Cleveland's one on nine point nine defensive rating is best in the league.

So they've been defending at a much higher level in this particular matchup against Cleveland, in large part because of their ability to help off those forwards to help them with ring protection and guards. Are actually the strength of the Knicks defense. Jalen bruns And is a slightly above average point of attack defender, Emmanuel Quickly is a good point of attack defender, Josh hart is a good point of attack defender, and RJ. Barrett is an above average

point of attack defender. That's where the strength of their defense is. It's, you know, some of the limitations with Mitchell Robinson, whether or not they can keep him on the floor offensively versus going with someone like Isaiah Hartenstein and then Julius Randall who can come and go defensively. That's where the weakness of their defense is. And don't get me wrong, I don't think the Knicks can win the title, but I think they can defend well enough

to beat a Cleveland team. And then I think the big guy to watch for the Knicks in the series again is Josh hard I bet you his winning impact screams off of the screen and every single one of these games. But let's talk about how the Calves can win. I wrote down four specific swing factors for the Calves, four battles that I think they need to win in order to win the series. First of all, Donovan Mitchell needs to play like the best player in the series.

He needs to clearly win the matchup with Jalen Brunson, and specifically, I want to look at decision making. Again, the As have been a little bit underwhelming in clutch situations this year, although they've been better as of late.

They finished the year twenty four and twenty one in games involving clutch situations, which is fine, it's not awful, but this is a team that won fifty one games and had the sixth best record in the league, so they have underperformed in clutch situations relative to what their record is. Donovan Mitchell has a tendency to force things

sometimes in that specific game down the stretch. Like we talked about back in January, Jalen Brunson, it's one hundred to one hundred kind of methodically is working out of the post, doesn't really get enough of an advantage, so he just shovels it to Julius Randall, doesn't force it to shovels it to Julius Randall. Julius was feeling good about his shot that night, rises up and hits a

three in Jared Allen's face. Next two possessions for the caves where Donovan Mitchell getting blocked at the rim and turning the ball over in transition possessions where he had no advantage and he just forced it, just tried to pile drive his way to the basket and bad stuff happened. He just got that, just has that little bit of it's almost like too much confidence in his own ability to be able to kind of slow things down and let the game come to him. He has to be

able to rain that in. Because he is a more dynamic score he is a better athlete. He should be the best player in this series. Jalen Brunson's best way to outplay him in this series is in clutch situations. So that's where Donovan Mitchell has to kind of rain things in. If he wins that matchup convincingly, that's a huge step forward for the Caps. Number two. Find a way to limit Julius Randall's bullyball now in film, one of the best ways I saw this was putting Jared

Allen on him. He's got a good amount of muscle mass and size and length to be able to absorb those Julius Randall's shoulders to contest shots forced Julius Randall into a lot of long threes that he was hitting because he's Julius Randall and he can get hot, right, But I actually thought he did a good job of taking away the easier shots at Julius is known to get sometimes. I think that also kind of puts Evan in a position where he can kind of help and

roam around. Obviously, that's a little bit of a gamble against a Knicks team with guys like Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson that relentlessly attacked the offensive glass, but I think it lines up their matchups pretty well. I think I think somehow finding a way to take away those easy shots that Julius Randall can get at the rim and in the short to mid range, maybe through a matchup like like Jared Allen, I think could go a long way. Third, Isaac Accorro needs to shoot over forty

percent from three in this series. Again, he's their best point of attack defender. He is shooting forty four percent from three since joining the starting lineup. That's a thirty eight game sample size, that's almost half a season. But

the Knicks will not guard him. He is not a good closeout attacker, does not have a good, well rounded skill set, so it's either knocking down the three or not much else from those kickouts, and so he has to hit them at such a high rate that it really hurts the Knicks when they help off of him.

In fact, this year, out of one hundred and twenty six players in the league to log at least two hundred spot up possessions, Isaaca Coros converting them one hundred that have one twenty six players less than a point per possession. That's not good and that's why the Knicks are going to leave him wide open. A lot of big Calves games this year have come down to Isaaca

a Coral corner threes. And we all remember the Brooklyn one where you know that crazy Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound on the free throw that gets kicked by really nice swing pass from Karis Lavert crossed the court. Isaaca Cora hits the shot, you know, big time bucket for a CALVS team that desperately needed a good clutch win like that. But go back to January against the Knicks and Julius Randall hits a three from the top of the key.

A couple possessions later, there's a possession that ends up in a wide open Isaaca Coro three in the left corner to tie the game. And he missed that one, same spot, missed that one. So a lot of these possessions, especially with Tom thibodone and the way that he likes to guard, a lot of these possessions are going to

end in isaac coor open in the corner. Cannie hit them at a high enough clip to kind of mitigate some of that Josh Hart advantage that I was talking so much about that would go a long way towards giving the Kas a chance. And then last but not least, and this is where Ivan Mobley comes in. Evan Mobley and Jared Allen have to utterly dominate the interior of this game series on both ends of the floor. That's their biggest advantage from a personnel standpoint in this series.

Julius Randall obviously offensively presents a bunch of issues, but he's not a great defensive player. And if Jared Allen can somewhat win that matchup defensively with him and limit his effectiveness and force him into a bad series. And Evan Mobley has been scoring really well. He's gone up a leap in the last half of the season. In his last thirty eight games, not counting the Sunday game when he barely played, he's averaging nineteen points per game

on fifty six percent shooting. To go with his usual lights out still defense, blocking almost two shots per game. He's shooting seventy three percent at the rim this year, he's shooting fifty four percent on floaters. That's that Anthony Davis little push shot in the lane that's so important. If he just kicks everyone's ass and Jared Allen can mitigate some of that Julius Randall advantage and he gets something like twenty and ten at Evan Mobiley is just

as an athletic wrecking ball everywhere on the floor. That's another huge swing swing factor for the Cavs. So to kind of wrap it all together here, I'm picking the Knicks in six. I think they're a better and more versatile shot creation team. I think they're much better spotting up off the ball. They've defended Cleveland really well this year. In overall, I think the Knicks have better role players with a deeper bench. But the Calv's best chance is

Donovan Mitchell soundly outplays Jalen Brunson. They dominate the interior on both ends of the floor with Mobile and Allen. They contain Julius Randall's bullyball attack and turn him into a jump shooter, and then Isaaca core On needs to shoot lights out. If they can check those boxes, I

think the Calves run away with this series. We are continuing our series previews today with what I think is the most interesting series in the first round of the Western Conference, the Sacramento Kings versus the Golden State Warriors. For those of you guys who missed it, we hit my favorite series from the Eastern Conference first round, Nick's Calves earlier today. You can find that on our YouTube feed.

You guys know the drill. Before we get started, Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements and it. For whatever reason you guys can't get over to YouTube to finish one of these videos, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops tonight, and last but not least, before we get started, you guys have heard me talk about game Time the fastest

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for twenty dollars off. Download game Time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right, let's talk some basketball, So a couple of quick notes on Warriors Kings. The Warriors are minus two hundred and sixty favorites right now in Vegas. That's a pretty significant favorite, a bigger favorite than the Calves are over the Knicks. For instance, the Warriors won the season series three to one in dominant fashion with

Stephen Draymond on the floor. This year against the Kings, they outscored them by twenty six points per one hundred possessions. This was back in the days early in the season when the Warriors starters were whooping everyone's ass, and it was primarily a concern about the bench and not necessarily their ability to play on the road. Now important note all except for the Friday game when the Kings rested

all their guys. The three games earlier in the season, we're all before Thanksgiving, so it's been a long time since then. And as a result, I would imagine both teams probably feel confident in their chances going in for the Kings. They can be like, hey, that was forever ago, don't worry about it, where a different team now will be fine. And if you're the Warriors, you're looking at it like, we know what we can do against these guys. We know they can't guard us. We're in good shape.

So again, as should be the case, everyone should feel comfortable and confident when they go into a series or they have no chance to win. But I would imagine both teams feel pretty confident Andrew Wiggins. Steve Kurd did a little presser before their game on Sunday and said that he's been ramping up with three on three and some five on five and that he's going to continue to practice and scrimmage throughout the week. My guess is that he plays on Saturday in game one of this series.

It's a good matchup for the Kings, or excuse me, for the Warriors from the same point of size and athleticism, so they don't desperately need Wiggins to win this series, although obviously he would help, and so because of that, I think it's kind of like the perfect series for him to kind of ramp up and you know, for them to pull the plug on him in his minutes if he's not playing well, or to give him a longer leash in games where he you know, where the

Warriors are playing, you ten fifteen points up on the scoreboard. I think it's the ideal situation to bring him back kind of reminds me of last year with Steph Curry when he was coming back from his injury in the way that he was able to come off the bench against Denver and kind of slowly work his way into the series because it was a matchup that the Warriors felt good about, and I do believe the Warriors feel

good about their matchup in this series. So similar to what I did with Kavs Nicks, rather than just focusing on you know, Warriors and offense, Kings on defense and vice versa, I want to focus on major contested battles of the series, major matchups, and major back and forth swing factors that will determine the outcome of the series. So first, who is the best player in the series. I think it's step by a mile. I don't think

that's a hot take. He's a bona fide Top Tiers superstar and I think he's the second best player in the league right now behind Jannis. He's also a proven playoff performer in the defending finals MVP, so that is a massive advantage for the Warriors. As a matter of fact, if Darren Fox happened to somehow outplay step in this series, that would be a gigantic swing and the Kings would win.

They if Darren Fox outplay Steff in the series, they might beat the Warriors in five, but it's extremely unlikely. That is a massive advantage for Golden State in the series. Why does that matter? Why does it matter to have the best layer in a playoff series? Well, a couple of reasons. First of all, every series is close for the most part. Like as we go down the matchups in this first round, like even in the Western Conference,

I think all of them will be close. Like, the Nuggets aren't playing very good basketball, so if they catch a team like the Pelicans or the Wolves that are playing well, like, it's gonna that could be a six game series, right like. And I think perhaps the most lopsided matchup in the first round is probably Suns Clippers.

And the Clippers are fine, They're good, they're not. I mean again, I'm gonna pick the Suns to win that series, but that's not gonna be They're not gonna blow out the Clippers every single game, right like, It's gonna be close. And the same goes for the Eastern Conference assign from maybe Brooklyn, Philly and whoever the Bucks get in the first round. So the reality is and it's just gonna get closer as you go into deeper rounds of the playoffs.

So these series are very closely and hotly contested, right, And so if the games are close, and generally speaking playoff games, they're very physical. The ref swallow the whistle, the intensity rampstop is. Everybody's playing so damn hard that the game naturally devolves down into a ultrophysical rock fight. They just get super sloppy, super ugly, and it just becomes a game about grinding out possessions. And that's where superstars bring the biggest advantage in the game of basketball.

The difference between a superstar and a role player most is most apparent in those specific situations. Because here's the thing. When it comes to advantage situations like closing out, like there are a lot of guys in the league, there are a lot of guys that aren't even in the league that can knock down an open shot or attack a closeout right like on the peripheries of basketball. Teams with those guys, it's more about you've got to find

advantages for them. But when things get really tight, like those guys aren't going to create buckets off the bounce at a high rate. Like the Warriors aren't worried about like Keegan Murray in a set defense situation like breaking you down off the dribble. They're worried about having to help off of him in all of the damage that he can do if he's wide open, right. So it's really about in these tightly contested, slow down, physical, ugly half court situations on both ends of the floor, who

can grind out plays on both ends. That's where superstars come in. For example, if it's Game five of this series and it's two to two, and it's the fourth quarter and it's seventy eight to seventy eight, it's gonna be an ugly fourth And having a guy like Steph who can make the most out of ugly situations better than just about anybody in the league, that's a real advantage. That is why the best player in basketball has a bigger impact than most team sports, especially when we get

to the NBA playoffs. And that's why I've used Steph Curry being the best player in the series as a massive advantage for the Warriors. Now, second major, I'll be keeping an eye on how will the Warriors guard the Fox Sabonis dribble, handoffs and pick and rolls. Now last game when everyone was actually playing, and again we have to go way back to November for this, but they actually started with Draymond Green on Darreon Fox and Kevon

Looney on Demonus Sabonus. It gave them the ability to switch if they needed to, and they feel comfortable with a guy like Draymond Green guarding out on the perimeter. And obviously ideally you don't want to put Kevon Looney out on the perimeter and to switch against Aron Fox.

But they actually had some success there. Darreon Fox was thrown off by that specific matchup, and in many cases he was just passing the ball around looking for one of his teammates to create an advantage because he didn't really know what to do with it. I'm really curious to see how long they're going to be able to do that, because I think one of the biggest things that the Kings could be capable of doing is playing Kevon Looney off the floor in some of their best lineups.

In that case, they're going to have to find a guard or a wing that is capable of guarding deer and Fox are at least doing a decent job there. Andrew Wiggins, I don't know will he be ready. Probably not. I don't think he's athletically ready for that matchup, and the last time they played back in November, they used him primarily to guard Harrison Barnes. But he is an option that you could see if he's feeling good physically. As the series progresses, he has a little bit more

switchability to battle with Sabonis as well. You feel comfortable switching Draymond out, so that that would be an interesting one to look at. The big guy I'm looking at those, Gary Payton. I think he might actually be the key to this series for Golden State. I expect him to play big minutes and I expect him to pick up Deer and Fox the second he crossed the staff court, apply a bunch of ball pressure and to make him

feel uncomfortable in every phase of the game. I use this as an example after that Thunder game a couple weeks ago. But Gary Payton is such an asset to be able to deploy him on the other team's best guard because he's so good at making them feel uncomfortable. He is incredibly big, and strong for his high at six foot three with the low center of gravity, so it's really difficult to knock him off the spots. You

have to cleanly beat Gary Payton off the dribble. If you barely beat Gary Payton off the dribble just through physicality is special, and especially in a playoff environment, he's going to be able to corral you just by using his hands and his strength to get himself back in front of you. He had a very very successful fourth quarter against Shay Guild just Alexander in that game against the Thunder a few weeks ago. It is a big

part of how the Warriors won that particular game. That is a huge matchup advantage for Golden State to have that in their back pockets. See, because here's the thing, especially in clutch situations, it's going to be vitally important for the Warriors to find a way to defend that

action two on two. And here's why that matters. If you have to bring a third guy over, you are now creating closeout situations or advantage situations for Keegan Murray and Kevin Herder and Harrison Barnes, and all three of those guys are up over one point one points per spot up possession. They are all three amazing spot up players. They you know, specifically, Harrison Barnes is a good closeout attacker.

Keegan Murray lights out from three. You know, Kevin Herder lights out from three and can do some stuff off the bounce as well. You put yourself in a very precarious position if you have to regularly help off of those guys to contain the Sabonus Fox pick and roll.

So if you can force yourself or find a way to have some success defending that action two on two, then you prevent those advantage situations for the off ball players for the Kings, which will go a long way towards stagnating that King's offense, because not those guys aren't great, like we talked about earlier, at attacking a set elite defender, and so defending that action two on two is going

to be vitally important. I believe that their best bet is going to be Gary Payton on ball, and I think in a clutch situations last seven minutes of the fourth quarter or so, you're gonna see Stephen Clay with Draymond and Gary Payton and either Jordan Pool or Dante DiVincenzo, depending on what the lineup kind of dictates. But I think you're gonna see a lot of Gary Payton in clutch situations in this series. And I also believe they're

going to run a drop coverage. I think that, you know, again, traditional drop coverage works just fine as long as your guard can fight over the top of the screen well enough to continue to corral the guard into the rim. Protector.

Draymond Green is amazing at playing that middle ground, in bating you into thinking the drop off passes open and sticking that arm out and grabbing it, or bating you into thinking that you've got to lay up, but then at the last second recovering and defending you at the rim. It's when there is separation on that ball screen where Darren Fox can get to that little fifteen foot jump shot that he makes so well and that little floater that he makes so well. That's where you end up

in trouble. And so I think it's gonna come down to a drop coverage with Gary Payton and Draymond Green, and Gary Payton needing to do his job fighting over the top of the screen and applying that back rusher to continue to funnel Dear and Fox into Draymond at the rim. If they can do that, they can stay home off the ball, and that will go a long way in clutch situations to allowing the Warriors to get

enough stops to win the series. Because you know the problem with switching, and again, I'm a big believer in switching in general, but you've got to have the right type of personnel to do so. And the Warriors are not a big team. That's just a fact. And so Demanus Sabonis being one of the best players in the league at at not only beating switches down low for quick, easy hook shots, he can even do it against big guy.

I don't know many players in the league that are as gifted at getting his little short hook shot or his little short, little bank shot off the glass off regardless of defender other than Sabonis. He's just a master at hitting you with that shoulder at the right time to knock you off balance. You just don't quite get his enough lift so that he just barely gets enough separation to get that off, and he's just gonna make it every single time. And then he's excellent at passing

out of double teams. I've seen some teams have success, like the Dallas Mavericks and their win against the Kings the other day. They did a really nice job doubling Sabonis and rotating out of it. But it's really difficult to do, and Sabonis has been one of the best players in the league at that. Specifically this year, he is either drawn a second defender or a hard double team on two hundred and ninety six post ups this year,

leading to three hundred and ten points. He's actually been the fourth best post passer in the league to log at least one hundred passing possessions out of the post, behind Jannis Luca and actually a little surprise here, Julius Randall was one of the top three post passers in the league this year. So again, you want to try

to avoid that double team situation as much as possible. Again, they may end up having to, in which case it'll be it'll be down to Steve Kur to line up the defensive rotations right and have the right personnel out there to be able to rotate out of it. But ideally you need to find a way to defend that action on too. The next major matchup I'm gonna be keeping an eye on can the Kings ever get a

stop against this Warrior's offense when they need to. The Kings have been one of the worst defenses I've ever seen from a good team this year. It's pretty simple. They're awful in the front court, like Harrison Barnes and Demonisi Bonus are not cleaning up messes on the back line and historically throughout NBA history, and this is why

I've never considered the Kings of championship contender. You have to have an elite defensive front court to win an NBA title, end of story, and the Kings just don't. But then on top of that, their backcourt presents some similar problems. Darren Fox is a solid point of attack defender, but Keegan Murray and Kevin Hurder are pretty bad. Harrison Barnes is you know, when he gets switched out into perimeter players is only okay. And they have better defensive

options guys like Terrence Davis, Guys like Davion Mitchell. Kessler. Edwards has been a good defensive option for them here in the second half of the season, but they aren't in the same stratosphere offensively as Kevin Hurt or in Keegan Murray, right. So that's that tradeoff there is if they go to their better point of attack defenders, they lose a lot of their offensive skill in ball handling

and shooting. And when they go with all their ball handling and shooting, they lose all that point of attack defense. I actually think one of the most interesting, you know, chess match pieces of this series is going to be Mike Brown trying to figure out that balance of defensive talent and offensive talent on the perimeter to give them a better chance of getting stops. But what's concerning what the Kings is there's not even there's not even encouraging

stretch of defense. This year, they're twenty fourth and defensive writing for the season, and they were never good. They were twenty first in October twenty second, November fourteenth, in December sixteenth, in January twenty seventh, in February twenty second, in March twenty second, in April. So even if we're trying to be optimistic about a ceiling here, there's nothing I can't go like, hey, remember that time for ten

straight games when they locked everyone up. No, that doesn't exist, and they've been especially bad against the Warriors when Curry is on the floor. Against the Kings this year, the Warriors are scoring one hundred and twenty four points per one hundred possessions. To give you an idea, the Kings are twenty fourth in the league in defense, allowing one hundred and sixteen points per one hundred possessions. Their defense

gets eight points worse against the Warriors. Now, again, it was back in November, and that's probably what the Kings are telling themselves in the locker room. But have the King's gotten better defensively since November. No, They've been bottom ten in the league the last three months. It's not even like they're trending in the right direction. Unfilmed, the Kings were blitzing every step screen, but they weren't just

doing that like they do. They were doing these kind of half hearted blitzes on like random things, like a like an Andrew Wiggins dribble handoff. There's a bucket in the first quarter of their game back in November where a little handoff of Wiggins and Herder and Fox both like double team him for no reason, and it's like a drow off to Looney and a kick out to the other corner for like a wide open three for

Clay Thompson. They're just they do these soft blitzes. And again, like when you blitz, you have to blitz in such an aggressive way that it forces a looping pass, which buys you an opportunity to rotate on the back end. If you sloppy blitz, if you slow and passively blitz, they're gonna rip you to shreds because it's gonna be an easy pass to the short rollman in an easy pass on the kickout to the wide open shooter. The Warriors are way too good at navigating those four on

three situations to buy them a massive advantage. You have to be sharper from a game plan standpoint, I think Mike Brown will probably go with a similar type of strategy.

They just need to be way sharper. And again, it's gonna come down to it's gonna come down to that balance for Mike Brown, because they might have to do something like squeeze a guy like Keegan Murray at the rotation or Kevin Hurder out of the rotation, not entirely, but like a quick pull, and he might have to sacrifice some of that ball handling and shooting and go with like, all right, we're gonna go with Harrison Barnes and we're gonna go with Kessler Edwards and Deer and

Fox because if Kessler, Edwards and Deer and Fox really locking on the perimeter, then maybe just maybe you have a chance to get enough stops. But it's but it's not easy to do. And the Golden State offense is an absolute blender. They typically have at least three threats on the floor at any given time, whether that's Steph Clay and Dante de Vincenzo or Steph Clay and Jordan Pool. They've got threats all over the floor. If Andrew Wiggins is healthy, he's a threat as well. He averaged almost

twenty points a game and last year's postseason. And then the idea they so the Warriors actually run more sets. And again when I when I think of a set, I don't it's not an action, it's a set. So for instance, a lot of teams run actions, and action is like I dribble up the floor and I do a dribble handoff and then guy kind of tries to

get downhill and make a play. Technically, that's an action it's a two man action, a dribble handoff or high pick and rolls technically an action even like backside action. So if like some guy's running a high pick and roll while the other two shooters are screening for each other, those are two actions. A set is a legitimately designed five person action, right. The Warriors run more of those

than anybody in the league, and it's not close. And they complicate those actions with multiple threats in any given possession. So for instance, they're split cut, they're split cut sets that they run. It'll be you have to defend this guy coming off of that. You know, like the guy make the post entry and he'll go screen away, and you have to watch out for the guy he's screening for.

Is he's coming back towards the post. But at the same time, if you overhelp that dude slip into the rim, or if you ignore the guy with the basketball, Draymond Green might fake your dribble handoff and go to the basket, there's three threats on that play. They run this five outset all the time these days, where like Steph Curry will run a high ball screen with Draymond Green as

Clay Thompson is relocating. It's kind of like a variation in the Spain pick and roll where Clay will come off of Draymond to the other side of the wing and they have the entire side cleared for him to attack. So even if you chase Clay over the top of the screen and get to him before he can shoot, he's ripping through to the baseline and there's nobody home. Yea. They have an incredibly sophisticated offense, and you have to

be incredibly sharp. You have to communicate, you have to play hard, you have to rotate, you have to apply ball pressure so their passing gets a little disrupted. There's so many things you have to do well to defend the Warriors. It's a blender and the King's I'm just not sure they're up for it. It's a matchup that I do not see going the King's way. Last, but not least, can the Warriors keep the Kings out of transition? Couple of specific stats, only the Houston Rockets turned the

ball over more than the Golden State Warriors. Now, to be clear, a lot of people have viewed his recklessness, and don't get me wrong, the Warriors can be reckless from time to time, but to me, it more has to do with passing. So the vast majority of teams

run a dribble, a dribble attack offense. So it's some kind of you know, get a guy coming off of some type of screen, whether it's a dribble handoff or an off ball wide pinned down or a pick and roll, and that guy is just trying to attack and he's making reads. So there might be a handful of possession passes on every possession, but for them, they have a

lot of possessions. These high pick and roll teams, especially or if there's not a single pass, you know, you know, Darius Garland will dribble the ball off the floor and call for a ball screen, and if the dude goes under the screen, or if he can get to the fifteen footmark, he's taking a fifteen foot jump shot, there might not be a single pass on that possession. The Warriors passed the ball more than any team in the league. They accomplish less off the dribble and more with the

past than any team in the league. And so by virtue of all those passes, there's just more opportunity for turnovers, and they do turn the ball over a lot. Here's the problem. The Kings play in transition on more than twenty percent of their possessions, which is the most in the entire league. They convert steals into points at a rate of one point four two points per possession, which

is very, very good. So one of the biggest ways that Golden State can breathe life into the Kings here or give them a chance to win this series is by not taking care of the basketball. And again, there's gonna be turnovers. They throw a million passes, but it's the difference between averaging fifteen turnovers a game for the series or averaging nineteen turnovers a game for the series could be the difference between whether or not you win or lose this King's team. I think again, we talked

about this earlier with the two on two action. I believe the Warriors are capable of getting stops in the half court of this series in this series in a way that the Kings cannot. But if you allow them to get out in transition a ton, it will mitigate that advantage and put this series into much more of a toss up type of territory. So it's vitally important for Golden State to take care of the basketball in

this series. I'm picking the Warriors in six. I was tempted to pick them in five, but I think the Wiggins piece and some of the transition elements and just kind of getting up to speed to the postseason level of play will be a little bit of a disadvantage for Golden State early in the series. I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped Game one. I expect them to steal one of the first two in Sacramento and then win games three and four, lose Game five, and then

win Game six. That's my best guess as of right now. And again I did the same ran yesterday for Cavs Nicks. But predictions are just predictions. They're just my best guesses based on what I see on film. If I was, if any of us were capable of predicting every playoffs series, we'd all be in Vegas making money gambling on these things. There's eight first round series. I'm gonna pick them. I'm not gonna get all of them right, as a matter

of fact. If I do, it'll be the lucky And my guess is you guys with your predictions will have similar luck. Right. So again, I'm just doing my best to make these guesses, these predictions, but I'm not, you know, not no Stradomius here. I can't. I can't you know, see the future. So, and that's the beauty of the game of basketball. You gotta play the games. The Warriors are a significant favorite. I believe they're going to win, they have the best player, they have all these advantages.

But you gotta go play the games, and the games could go either way. And that's the beauty of the game of basketball. I'm picking I'm picking the Warriors because I think they'll score easily against the Kings. I think they have the personnel to get enough stops in the half court against the Kings, and I think they have the best player in the series by a mile. Now, similar to what I did with has Nicks yesterday, I want to give the case for how the Kings can win.

If the Kings want to win the series, they need to run as much as possible to generate as many easy points in transition as possible. Another huge advantage of running out in transition is generating cross matches. So, for instance, if you're having a ton of success by stopping deer and Fox and Sabonis with Gary Peyton and Draymond Green.

If you push the ball in transition, you might get more possessions where Clay Thompson is on Deer and Fox, or where Steph currys on Deer and Fox, or where somebody else is demonis Sabonis because Draymond didn't get down the floor in time. Like pushing in transition generates cross matches, and then you have so much shooting on the floor that they can't scram out of those gives you an opportunity to run those actions with better with better advantages. Right,

So pushing and transition is a big one. Secondly, Mike Brown has to find a good balance of offensive and

defensive talent. Guy, my guess is that they'll end up going with somebody like Terrence Davis or Keslarwards or even Davion Mitchell over one of Keegan Murray or Kevin Herder as the series progresses, when he realizes that he needs more defensive talent on the floor, but finding that balance without sacrificing too much offensively, but get it giving your defensive fighting chance, that's what can give you a chance to stay in these games. And then when you stay

in the games. You need Deer and Fox to somehow at least play near Steph Curry's level. Doesn't have to outplay him necessarily, but he needs to get near Steph Curry's level for the Kings to have any chance to win the series. All right, guys, that is all I have for right now. We're gonna be coming back later tonight after the final buzzer of Lakers Wolves to break down the two seven eight games. Wednesday, I should have

at least two more series previews for you guys. Thursday, we're doing a kind of like a Bigger Picture playoff preview with Carson, and then we'll have a couple more season previews on Friday, and then we'll get into the grind on Saturday. As always, I appreciate you guys. I'll see you later tonight. The volume