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the Volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are having a great week so far. We got a fun show for you guys today. We're having my buddy Carson come on and we are going to hit on the five biggest questions for the second half of the NBA season, going to talk a lot about the teams near the top of the league, and then we have a little bit of an NBA Draft topic at the end as well. Carson's always amazing with the draft, so I'm excited to get into that a little bit.
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twenty dollars off. Download game Time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right, we're gonna bring my guy Carson on. I got to meet Carson in person. Find at the Vaulheam's yearly party up at the Super Bowl a couple of weeks ago, and you guys will be stunned to find out that Carson is an enormous human being, almost as tall as I am. I tried to get him to come play in my men's league team, but he told me he's had a thrice dislocated kneecap, so
it wasn't going to happen. But dude, it was really good to meet you in person the other day. We've done a lot of work in the past, and I'm excited to talk some basketball with you today. Man, how are you. I'm great, Jason. Yeah, that was a lot of fun. And I will say, I think you rounded me up a little bit. I mean, I pulled up. He told me I was six to five. I'm about six three and a half. You know, no shoes, not my NBA measurement, but I appreciate that. And uh, yeah,
it's great to see you. Yeah. Man, So I'm excited to get into I mean, I will say unequivocally, this is the most excited that I've been for a stretch ron of the NBA in a long time. The league feels wide open, a bunch of teams that a team that I root for in the Lakers, has made some moves and has made themselves a little bit more serious here down the stretch, and they're gonna be fun to watch. The Warriors are going to be playing at the absolute peak of their capability to try to make up ground
and at the top of the league. We've got a bunch of super interesting teams. So I'm excited to dive into it. Today. We got five questions for you. What's our first question, Carson? Yeah, Well, first off, I agree with you completely. It also feels sort of like the season is really starting now just because of how much turnover we've seen in terms of rosters with teams that could potentially be contenders. So very exciting on that front.
But as you said, we've also seen some teams that have been consistently towards the top of the league, and we very much have that picture out East where there's sort of a pack of three that has separated itself with the Celtics, the Bucks, and the Sixers. So, Jason, out of that group, who do you think actually ends up as the one seed out East? So you know what's funny is I it's very close. Bucks are a
half game back, and they've been killing everybody lately. But I think this is going to be one of the more important races here down the stretch. You you know, I talked a lot over the last couple of weeks about teams having the flexibility to kind of ease their way into the postseason, and I do think if it comes down to injuries, that both the Bucks and the Celtics, even the Sixers will prioritize taking care of their players
and their health. That said, I think that the one seed is super important this year on two different levels. First of all, I think Philly is a much much more dangerous playoff opponent than Cleveland. I think there's a massive drop off there. I think I would be almost certain that the Bucks and the Celtics would beat the Calves. I would give the Sixers a legitimate puncher's chance to beat either of them, especially if James Harden and Joel
and beat play well. So for starters, getting that one seat allows you a much easier path towards the conference finals, which that series is going to be a blood literally and physically. So like I look at that one seat is vitally important in the East, and then coming out
of the West. I mean, the two teams that I think are most likely to win that conference are Golden State in Denver right now, and Denver is gonna have the elevation factor that's gonna be huge in Golden State, as bad as they've been this year, they have not been bad at home, and so I think home court advantage is really going to matter for those two teams, and so I think they're gonna go for it now. The one big wrinkle here is the Celtics are getting healthy.
Marcus Smart just played his first game in a month on Wednesday before the All Star break, and then Jaylen Brown played in the All Star Game with that mask on, so they're kind of coming together. And we also have heard that Jannis might miss a couple of games as he waits for the pain in his wrist to subside. Now, the Bucks have been okay without Jannis this year. They're only zero point seven points per one hundred possessions when Jannis is off the floor, and they have a pretty
easy schedule coming up. I was looking at it, and I think that they should win in five of their next eight games at a minimum, even if Jannis doesn't play in any of those games. But I'm still gonna go with Boston. And here's why, because there's one other big wrinkle that we're glossing over here. Boston has never relinquished the top seat. And every time they've had a down stretch where they've lost some games and teams have
caught up, they've immediately gone on a run. So like they lost five out of six when Golden State embarrassed them, in that one game, and then they right when it looked like they might get passed, they turn around in one thirteen of their next fifteen, and there was a gap again, and then they lost three in a row in late January, everybody caught up again, and then before anybody could pass them, they ripped off seven out of
nine before the All Star breaks. So, like, I think they know they have a higher regular season ceiling than any of these other teams, and I think anytime they sense real danger in the standings, they're just gonna hit the jets and pull away. So I'm going with Boston. What do you think, Carson? I think that makes a
lot of sense. And I honestly think of the margin between Milwaukee and Boston in this conversation as it is in terms of who you like is the favorite come out of the conference come playoff time is very slim. I think the Sixers are sort of a little bit out of this. As good as they've been, they have the toughest schedule in the league left and they're already three games back. That's gonna be tough to make up.
But I actually lean Milwaukee here, and the reason for that is sort of that I feel they were only seeing their potential being realized. Well, we haven't even seen it yet, but they're on that trajectory. Like over the last fifteen they've finally been a top ten offense after struggling so much on that end of the floor compared to expectations for a lot of the year, and they've
been unstoppable. Right, They've just ripped off twelve straight. I just think with the influx of offensive talent that they've had, with the addition of a Joe Ingles, with Chris Middleton getting healthier, hopefully becoming the sort of star caliber player that we expect him to be, and with the unstoppable
level that Jannis is at. Again, it's very close, But I really like Milwaukee, and I also think come play off time, I slightly prefer their combination of three legit stars, insanely consistent elite defense with just a really stellar cast
of role players. Yeah, it's funny, we get we know what that matchup is going to look like, Like we know that Milwaukee's going to run a drop coverage with Lopez just literally just blatantly ignoring Robert Williams or Al Horford, whoever's the five to hang out at the rim, and they're basically going to funnel everybody to Robert to Brook Lopez and try to force them to make the right reads.
And that series will swing back and forth as Boston makes good decisions driving and kicking the basketball, and as they get stupid and take bad shots. We've just seen this movie a million times. Then on the other end of the floor, it's going to be a steady diet of Grant Williams and Al Horford on Jannis and whether
or not guys can make plays off the ball. And I'm glad you brought up Ingles and Chris Middleton's It's been a really small sample size, but those two guys, when you've put them on the floor with Drew Holiday, Honest, this year, they've been scoring the shit out of the basketball. And this is something I've been preaching the entire season. And we're gonna get into this a little bit more as we move on to our next question as we're
talking about MVP. But like, I don't think people have given Yannis enough credit for the way he floated this team with that lack of offensive talent, because and I'll give you, I'll give you a wild stat did you know that the Bucks are twenty two and six in games that have involved clutch situations despite being a bottom five clutch offense because teams can load up on Jannis and they haven't had the requisite offensive skill around them.
Now we've seen why Jannis has become a defensive wrecking ball at the end of games. And so I'll give you an example of the Clippers game. Just took on isolation defensive Kawhile Leonard and just completely shut him down over the course of the last five minutes of the game. Right, Like, those are the elements there that Janis has been able to cover for all of these gaps on the roster
as guys have been in and out of the lineup. So, you know, I tend to think that I tend to think that Boston has a slightly higher ceiling when they're really clicking on all cylinders and moving the basketball around, and I almost think they look better offensively when their guards start their action. When when Derrick White and Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogden actually make that initial decision and Tatum and Brown playoff of that, I think they actually
look a lot better. I do think they have a higher ceiling but I do think Milwaukee is a much more like a safer pick for who's going to get out of the conference. I agree, and I think that that decision making factor is always going to be a swing thing for Boston. Like we know how brilliant their offense can be, We've seen it for so much of the season, and we know how low it can at times get, like we saw at different points in that
Warriors series throughout last regular season. So I agree with you. I think Milwaukee's the pick, but Boston has an unbelievably ceilings. So let's move want to question number two, which is one that has been pretty hotly debated as of late, and there was a bit of outrage over a recent ESPN straw pole on this topic. But Jason will Nikola Yokich win a third straight MVP this year. I believe
you will. It's just my um my time following the NBA, I've noticed that voters in particular also have egos, which I get it. Like Carson, if I called you and I was like, hey, buddy, guess what congratulations You get to vote on NBA awards for the rest of this time,
you know, for the rest of your career. You'd be like, hell, yeah, dude, I'm one of those guys, you know, yeah and like And I think they I think they have a little bit of ego, and I think that they write about it throughout the season and so they make arguments throughout the season for why they feel a certain way, and so it's really hard for them to come off of that. And that Tim Bontemp's article that MVP straw Pole is very much a it's a it's kind of depressent like
it's right almost every time. So given the advantage that Yoka chad in that poll and where I've seen on Twitter the way a lot of these voters are arguing this point, I think it's a runaway train. I don't think he's missing it now. To be clear, if he wins his third straight and he's deserving, I have no problem with that. I don't think that just because a guy may or may not have not deserved a previous MVP doesn't mean he shouldn't get one that he absolutely
deserves if he deserves it within the season. But I have a big question for you, Carson, and I'm hoping you can help me reconcile this because the issue that I have with it is if you ask me who is the MVP if the season ended right now, I think it's a toss up between Janis and Yoki, and I think Joel Embide is right there behind them. And so it bothers me that the narrative has it as a runaway freight train kind of things. I wanted to kind of read this to you and Carson, you can
tell me if I'm being crazy. So Ni Yokis is averaging twenty five, twelve and ten. He's obviously got a seventy percent true shooting percentage, which is absurd, although he's not relying on almost any self creation, like he's not doing a ton of isolating or posting up. He's doing a lot of work kind of within the flow of the offense relative to some of the other guys that he's competing with. That's going to lead to inflated true shooting percentages. In my opinion, the Nuggets are forty one
and eighteen. I do think he has demonstrated himself as the best offensive player in the league. I think that's a hill that you've been on for a couple of years now, and I think I'm on that hill now. Too, But Yannis, I'm getting thirty two, twelve and five sixty percent true shooting, albeit on a totally different type of shot diet. They're a half game better in the standings forty one and seventeen. I would argue he's done more
with less. We just talked about in the last segment about the influx of offensive talent for the Bucks in the way that's completely transformed their offense. There's been a lot of this season with like Yannis out there, with Brook low Pen and just a bunch of guys, you
know what I mean. Due Holiday has been in and out of the lineup, Chris Middleton's barely been in the lineup, Joe Ingles just started playing in the last like what dozen or so games, So like, it's one of those things where I do think he's done a little bit more than less with less. He I think he's a top five offensive player in the league, and I think he's the very best defensive player in the league. We mentioned that clutch stat earlier, the twenty two and six
and clutch games with what he can do defensively. So I'm not saying it is Yannis, but why is it that Yoki fans, and you're a Yokich fan and you're a Yoka supporter, Why is it that Yokis fans feel like this is kind of a done deal. Well, first of all, let me just say that I don't feel that way at all, and if anybody picked Yannis, I completely understand it. I think these are the two guys
who have consistently carried their rosters the most. Yes, they have good rosters, but are clearly like in a completely different tier in terms of super star our ability from anybody else on their team. Jannis has done so much defensively, although the Bucks are really talented there as well, but
they've been unbelievable on that end. And I mean his raw production and what he has done to raise their floor offensively and make them an elite team without Chris Middleton for so much of this year is remarkably impressive. I guess I'll just make the case for why I do still think it's Yokich. It is the most efficient scoring season at this volume that we've ever seen, by nearly three points true shooting, and I understand what you're
saying about the shot diet. That being said, his versatility is unprecedented for a big man right like, he is actually the highest volume post player in the league, and he scores it ninety first percentile efficiency there. He's a ninetieth percentile roll man Jason, He's a sixty eighth percentile pick and roll ball handler. He's seven ft two hundred and eighty five pounds. Like the inverted pick and roll are legitimately important for the Nuggets, and he crushes it.
He is a fifty five percent shoot from mid range, seventy percent on floaters. So like to me, the shot making the scoring is remarkable, and that's obviously not the primary selling point, which I think is the playmaking and the overall ability to lift a team offense like his on offsplits this year plus twenty four point seven, the best of this century of any player, point blank, plus
thirteen point seven on courtnet rating. That's how many points borne hundre possessions the Nuggets outscore their opponents by when he's on the floor. It's easily the best of any candidate. It's five points borne under possessions better than Yannis. Meanwhile, Yannis's team, yes, is mediocre when he's off the floor,
but they don't fall apart as Yoki's Nuggets do. And I understand if people are growing a bit tired of that argument, because it's like, yeah, well, part of that is that the Nuggets don't have really a playable backup center, or haven't for so much of this year, and I understand that. But nevertheless, he is so fundamental to not just elevating this offense, but to making it the best in the league. They're thirty eight and thirteen when he plays,
so I think he's clearly the best offensive player. I think he's had the best offensive season, and I think he has had the largest impact on team success. I actually do, But I think the margin between him and Jannis is slim there, and if you want to make the two way better all around argument for Jannis, who has also had such unbelievable offensive production and propelled his team to being elite, I really have no problem with that. I do think it's a toss up, and I could
see Yannis actually taking the lead down the stretch. I mean, if the Bucks just run away with it now that they're at full strength, and I would have no problem with that. Yeah, it's interesting because specifically with the shot diet stuff, I want to be clear like, I don't think you get bonus points for making it more difficult. I always joke about, like I'll have guys on a plane sometimes it'll be like the big why do you call him for a ball screen or something like that.
I'm like, do you think I get bonus points for scoring on you? Like? No, it's like, I'm trying to win this game, okay, Like I don't care what how we go about doing it right. You know. It's like, what I appreciate about Yokich is I think the fact that he scores so much in the flow of the offense is part of what makes them such a dominant regular season team, because there is such a rhythm and
flow to the way they play offensively. But I do and you pointed out the post up stuff, and I want to be clear, it's not like Yoki just never looking to create his own shot. Of course he does. Primarily he's doing it out of the post a lot of times against mismatches that are generated through the flow of his you know, inverted picking rolls and the things
that he does pushing the ball in transition. But I do think there's something to be said about, especially when you get into late game situations and in the postseason, that rhythm and flow offense tends to have a little bit of a ceiling to it. You saw that in that Philadelphia game. Like at the end of that game, Philly got in front of all of those Denver actions and nobody on Denver wanted to take and make a tough shot, and on the other end of the floor,
Joel Embiid was just staring. Joke it's right in the eyeballs and hit and pull up jumpers in his face.
So like, and that's just one game. And there's also a version of that game where Yoka where NBA doesn't get hot at the end, and then Denver wins, and then everyone's talking about how great Yokis is, right, So but what I'm just saying though, is like, in terms of like, oh, he's having one of the most efficient scoring seasons in his career in the history of the NBA, I do think that there's an important footnote there, which is that yokt the way that Yokis is doing it
is different than a lot of the other high volume scoring seasons in NBA history. Just so I do think that a factors into the efficiency. I do want to push back on one last thing, though, I can't stand it when I hear the Yoki's proponents point out the on off stats. Not that I don't appreciate the on off stats, but there's a couple of There's two huge factors there. You mentioned one of them. They don't have a good bench, at least not until before the trade deadline.
I do think Reggie Jackson and Thomas Bryant will help a lot in that department. But the Nuggets also use kind of a line shift system, and that's a huge difference between a way the way most teams in the NBA do. Most teams in the NBA like to stagger a little bit more to give themselves a little bit more continuity with talent on the floor throughout the game. The Nuggets are very much a we're running our starters, and then we're gonna bring out our bench group, and
then we're gonna come back to our starters. And so that massive drop off in talent is a big part of why they struggle so much when the Stars or when Yokich is off the floor. That's why you see like Contavious Calwell popes on off numbers are through the roof right like there's a huge part of that is the way they stagger those lineups. So you know, for Milwaukee, for instance, they run any more traditional rotation with guys in and out of the lineup, there's a lot of
Yannis at center as they go to their bench. So I do, I do think that there's some context there. I really put it. I really put it this simple, like these are two of the top you know, five players in the world that are having other worldly seasons. Yokich has a more offensive edge, Janniss has a more defensive edge. I think that I would probably end up favoring the guy, provided that no one misses too much time, Like if Vannis goes and misses seven games here with
his wrist, then it's a done deal. Like Yokis gets it. And that's a huge thing with Yokis in the last few years is his availability. That dude is just always ready to play. I think even when he's missed games this year, it's been like Covid, you know what I mean, So,
like his availability is a huge factor there. But they're close enough at this point that if if you know, if it's still just a five to six game gap between the two of them in terms of playing availability and in the bucks finished ahead of them in the standings. I'd probably lean towards Yannis, and I'm fine with that, And I will say I think that those are both important and fair contextual points that you made on the
on off numbers. I would then simplify it, and sure you're still getting the value that he's playing with a lot of starters. But I think just that pure on court number, right, I mean, out scoring opposing teams by thirteen point seven points per one hundred when he's on the floor is remarkable, and it's the best of any of these candidates. So I think that this should be
viewed as a very even two man race. I think that Embiid, because of sort of games missed, doesn't have quite as strong of a case, although he's not too far behind in that conversation, but doesn't quite have the team's success. Like the margins are slim here, So if you want to make an MBID case, I would hear it out. I just think it's pretty clearly the weakest
of the three. But if I could just for a moment vent Jason from the perspective of a long time Yokish fan, a guy who actually picked him to win MVP this season before he did it. I don't know that I want him to win this MVP because the narratives that have started, just the disgusting level of outrage and disingenuous arguments that are born out of him just
being announced as a straw poll front runner. It's absurd, Like we're getting so many bad faith arguments, we're getting the well hold on everybody ragged on Russ as a stat pattern when he averages a triple double, by the way, for which he won an MVP and I actually didn't deserve in my opinion, but he won the MVP, And now we're not doing the same for Yoka, just like these could not be were different cases. Right, Yoki has led the best offense in basketball without another legitimate star.
He is this remarkable blend of efficiency and offensive versatility in playmaking. There's a massive impact on winning. Right, Russ's team offense was sixteenth. Russ was wildly inefficient. Russ was, by the way, having his rebounds padded like Steven Adams was trying to get him the ball so that he
could initiate the offense more quickly. Look at his contested rebound rate, and then I just think the playoff success argument, it's like, if you think anybody could have contended with the Nuggets roster the last two years, you're tripping Facundo Compozzo in Austin rivers, where there's starting guards in a
playoff series. I haven't had Jamal Murray and Yokich has been incredible, So I just think it's going to put him in just an absurd position of people being like, all right, well you got three MVPs, you need to win a ring right now or you're a fraud. And it's like, well, this is actually his first title caliber roster, and guess what, there's other title caliber rosters out there. Like, I just think it's going to be unfair on that front. But let me commend you, cars and really quickly before
we move on. You went through that entire debate without mentioning a single catch all metric, which is all I've been seeing on the damn Twitter timeline over the course of the last couple of weeks, which drives me completely insane. You made a basketball case for it, and I sincerely appreciate that. Well, Jason, you and I are aligned in our dislike of catch all one number metrics. I think the idea that we could encapsulate a basketball player's value
with one number is absurd. And I think defensive metrics are overwhelmingly offensively bad, but that's a conversation for another day. And by the way, defensive metrics clearly overrate Yoki, there's no doubt about that. But I think he's the best offensive player in basketball. I think his impact on team success in this regular season has still been unrivaled. But Jeannie is incredible and we've known from the jump that this was going to be an MVP race for the Ages,
and I think it's lived up to the hype. Bet the NBA on T and T with a no sweat same game part lay from FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Doesn't matter if you're new to FanDuel or already have an account. Every Thursday night, you'll get bonus bets back if your same game parlay doesn't hit. NBA Same game parlays are the perfect way to combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payday. Build your own, or choose from one of the popular same game parlays already
made for you. In the Vandel sports Book AP This Thursday, I'm on the Lakers to cover their minus four and a half spread against Golden State, and I like the under. This new version of the Lakers plays at a much slower pace and with Jared Vanderbilt in the starting lineup, there are a much better defensive team than they were earlier in the season. So I think that game is gonna go under and the Lakers are gonna win comfortably.
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official sports betting partner of the NBA. Let's talk now about a guy who was in that conversation early has fallen out of a bit due to sort of the team success factor, but now has his running mate. They could put them in that contending conversation that is the Luca don Chich Kyrie Irving duo in Dallas, Jason will their season? Will this duo be a success or a failure? I think it's certainly possible. I don't think this season is the is the season to properly evaluate them. I mean,
just everything we know about playoff basketball. I've pointed this out on the show before, but you need a certain amount of defensive front court talent to have any chance
to win the title. Just look at every defensive front court that's won the title in the last like thirty years, and you're not like the weakest one you'll find in there is maybe like you know, Dirk Navitsky and Tyson Chandler, who Tyson Chandler was an awesome rim protector at that point, right, Like, You're just not going to be able to compete in the NBA playoffs without real defensive front court versatility. And so a lot of it's played out exactly like we expected.
We talked about a real a real secondary ball handler to help with usage and things along those lines, and to give a different kind of change up to Luca elevating them on offense, but then really really struggling on the defensive end, and that's exactly what's happened. So here's the lineup data so far since Kyrie's come to Dallas, with both Luca and Kyrie on the floor and one hundred and nine possessions, they are plus ten point five net with a defensive rating of one hundred and twenty one.
So they're beating the crap out of teams despite giving up an egregious amount of points. And it's because they have an offensive rating up over one hundred and thirty one points per one hundred possessions when Kyrie's on the floor without Luca, they've done They've had one hundred and ninety nine possessions of that so far, a one sixteen defensive rating, one twenty three offensive rating, plus seven net. That's about as good as you're ever gonna do without
Luca in this era, probably worth mentioning. And this is you know, I was talking about this with Ryan shortly after this all went down, But dude, he went right away with one practice and beat the Clippers and the Kings on the road without Luca like like that, you know. And it always bothered me during this whole debate how everyone focused on the issues with Kyrie while completely glossing over the fact that he is an unbelievably good basketball player.
So you're seeing you're seeing that benefit already there. And then this season with Luca and no Kyrie in thirty five hundred possessions, obviously because it's a full season, they have a one twenty offensive rating in a one sixteen defensive rating, So they're getting really good, like Luca quality offense even when Luca's off the floor, which is the huge advantage there. Now, I think from an exosit like from an actual basketball standpoint, and I'm wondering if you're
seeing the same thing. There's a lot more tempo and pace to the way they're playing now, not necessarily in pushing and transition, because I was looking at the numbers, they were a twelve percent transition frequency without Kyrie in the thirteen percent with him, so not much of a tick up there, But in the half court there's just a lot more quickness of decision making with Kyrie on the floor, and I think I think a lot of that is Kyrie initiating possessions just because he makes quicker
decisions and he's not the super methodical approach that Luca has but even when Lucas had the ball. I'm not sure if you've noticed this, Carson, but even Luca's making quicker decisions knowing that if if it leads to an opportunity for Kyrie to run second side action or for them to move the ball a little bit more, they're getting good, better stuff out of that, and you're seeing
that reflected in the offensive ratings. But I just I thought they were literally the worst watching basketball this season for a guy like us, for guys like us who have to watch it and have to watch the good teams. I hated watching them the most because it was just so predictable. And I love Luca, but television product, it
was just so every possession looked the same. Adding Kyrie to this mix has made it a must watch team for me, and that's just a testament to the way that he's kind of made their offense more palatable, and
I think it invigorates the team. Like in that game, that comeback game against Minnesota, or Anthony Edwards and Jada McDaniels shut them down on the final possession, the energy that was flowing through that arena as Kylie Kyrie led that comeback was palpable, and I think that there's there's something to be said about stagnation and the effect it has on the energy of off ball players versus pace and tempo and movement in the way that keeps players engaged.
I think Kyrie has been monumentally good for them offensively. Now the defensive end is going to be a problem, but that was never going to be something they could address within this season. That's gonna be something they can look at this offseason. And the beauty of it is because of how damn good Kyrie Irving and Luca don Chajar. You can do things like get severely offensive limited players offensively limited players because they're pull up shooters, does lucas
such a half court surgeon. You can go after front court players that have severe offensive deficiencies that specialize in what they like. A guy like Stanley Johnson might be someone they look at even within this season to shore them up on the wing. But they need they need to reform the front court in the offseason to have a real chance to compete. But I love this deal simply because of the fact that it makes them such
a more fun and fluid offensive basketball team. I completely agree that The offensive fit is dreamlike, and that's how I thought it would look, and in practice it's been perfect. I mean, Kyrie is the ideal compliment to Luca, and there were some people who were talking about how they thought it was two ball dominant guards playing together, which it really isn't. And we've seen Kyrie consistently play that complimentary role to a more ball dominant star, if it's Lebron,
if it's playing with both Harden and Katie. He is that quicker decision maker. He is obviously a brilliant isolation and pick and roll scorer who can attack mismatches and go get you a bucket quickly. And he's also a great spot up player. And you know he's even increased his volume there obviously playing alongside Luca, and he was an eighty eighth percentile spot up guy this season in Brooklyn. So I think that the fit is great. There. You
mentioned how brilliant they've been offensively. I do think, though, if you're expecting Dallas to contend this season, it's not going to happen because of what you laid out. I thought that that game against Minnesota was a defensive abomination, and I think that overall, we've seen them unable to stop people at the point of attack and then unable
to challenge them at the rim. Like since they added Kyrie, they're allowing a posting teams to shoot seventy five percent inside five feet Jason, worse than any other team in the league, and they're allowing the most makes per game in that area. Because it's like Christian Wood with his limited drop coverage is not intimidating anybody. Dwight Powell is not intimidating anybody, especially when you're dealing with two liabilities
at the point of attack. You have to play for thirty five minutes to night because they're by so far your best players. So I agree with you. I think this is a move that you look at as being a potential elevator into contention for next year because they have movable contracts with THHJ, maybe Britons, you can attach
a pick and get off that money. At least. Reggie Bullock is another like mid level size contractor, though I think they probably want to keep him and they've got a couple of expirings this year, so it's concerning to me still being invested in Kyrie as good as he may be at basketball, it's just frightening to have him on an expiring deal and you never know when the volatility is going to come into play, and they're not good enough yet, and so that's what's a bit scary,
is that it's no like, oh man, well, if Kyrie goes insane after this year, at least we had our shot at a title. Because they don't have that shot at a title yet. They're twenty fourth and defensive rating. We've never seen a team that bad on that end make the finals, and so I think the precedent there is clear. But they are really good offensively and you're right, I mean, if they shore up the wings down the line, yes, then this absolutely could be a true contending team. That's
super interesting. Like I'm making the case for Kyrie as a long term upside, and the long term element is what's so terrifying about Kyrie. Now. I will say that I think Mark Cuban is crazy enough to give him what he wants, and I also think that there are severe limitations for other teams to obtaining him because sign and trades gets super complicated from the standpoint of like hardcapping. You so, like like if the Lakers wanted them. It's
like you've got kind of two options. Like if Anthony Davis plays awesome down the stretch of the season, you look to maybe do a sign and trade deal with De'angela Russell, but then you have to get the Mavericks on board, so you might have to give up picks. And then now even if you do a double sign and trade with Dillo and Kyrie, you're immediately hardcapping yourself, which limits your ability this offseason to add talent around
those guys. There's a bunch of like different elements that make it super complicated, and I think it really just comes down to Mark Cuban writes the check after the season, so I'm less worried about that. Um. The one last thing that I thought you said that was super interesting
before we move on, is that spotting up part. You know, Spencer Dinwoody was a good off ball option in Dallas, and there are there are nights where he looks like an All Star, but the one gigantic chasm, and I do think Hyrie is a much better on ball player
than Dinwoody. That goes without saying, but where an even larger chasm exists, as in that spotting up element, because Spencer Dinwoody is very streaky jump shooter and in this spot up situations is someone that defenses feel at least somewhat comfortable conceding shots too, whereas with Kyrie Irving, it's like that thing's going in every single time if you leave him open. And so that that element is a huge part of their complimentary offense together. But I thought
you laid it out pretty well. It's it's it's a long term upside with a player that you don't feel comfortable having a long term attachment too. And so it's going to be an interesting challenge for them. And it's like you said, it had to be long term because
they couldn't get it all done this year. They had two clear needs on this roster, really high level second creator and then that front court defense, and they had to compromise one of those, giving up Dorian Finney Smith to then gain a much better player in the category. That is probably, well, I don't know if it's more important to their long term ceiling. I think they really need both, but Kyrie is that first building block you hope alongside Luca. But man, does it scare me because
you just don't know, dude. I mean, he teamed up with you know, his best buddy, and then of course the Nets are sort of incompetent. That fell apart. He left Lebron James and three straight finals to go to you know, the most talented young core in the league, and then wasn't happy with that, Like, it's just a really scary guy to be invested in. So we will see how that plays out over the home stretch of
this season and the coming years. But we just mentioned having to rant his buddy, who obviously is now in Phoenix, So Jason, we have not seen Katie on the floor for the Suns yet, but I think the expectations are obviously very high. Is this a finals or bust season for them? I don't think so. Now. I do think, unlike Dallas, I think they have a real chance to win the title this year. I've said this before, but I think I think they are the worst perimeter defense
out of any serious NBA Finals contender. For instance, like even the Lakers are like, oh, D'Angelo Russell and Molique Beasley. Yeah, but Jared Vanderbilt is a much better like swing nan defender than anybody who's playing for the Phoenix Suns right now, right So like they like in terms of teams that you're looking at there, they just don't have anybody that
contain it, can contain the ball. Chris Paul at this phase of his career struggles with quicker guards, and so it's one of those things where I do think that they're flawed and they're I do not have them as my favorite this year under any stretch of imagination. However, like Devin Booker's twenty six, DeAndre Ayton's twenty four locked up long term and as a tradeable contract because he's in the mid thirties for millions, Chris Paul I don't
think matters much to this team's ultimate ceiling. Like I do think he'll find a way to contribute within this season and maybe a little bit next season. But I don't think even if you just completely erased him from the equation, I don't think it changes my calculus of the Sun's much at all, especially with how well guys like Joshua Cogi are playing, you know, in point of attack defense roles, which you could almost look at him as a defensive point guard for that team if they needed.
And then I think Kyd's gonna age really well. I think overall, the way that his game is structured, he's going to be a very effective scorer for at least the next three to four or five seasons. So I'm not concerned about that at all. I would say though, that next season would be their best and most likely opportunity to win after they make a couple of moves on the margins, and with that will come real pressure.
So next year there's gonna be some real serious pressure on Kevin Durant to get his first NBA championship outside of that Warrior's environment where he had the massive talent advantage. But I don't think I'm gonna be holding him to that standard in this season. I think that they're sort of on the border here when we're talking about finals or bust. It's not really right because they don't have an overwhelming talent advantage, and they certainly have depth concerns.
They have continuity challenges just in terms of having twenty games now to get this all together. But my gut reaction when this move happened was I think this makes them my favorite out West. I still don't think that they're complete enough to pick them over Denver. Well, that was my gut reaction. Now as I'm reflected and I'm like, I don't know, man, we still haven't seen it. Like Denver is a well oiled machine with twenty plus games to go. Phoenix has not played basketball yet together with
twenty plus games to go. So you think Kevin Duran's gonna struggle to fit in with the Suns. No, I don't. But it's more about, Okay, well, when we're looking at this wing depth, how much of a problem is that when we're looking at point of attack defense, like handling some of the dynamic guards you will have to there's actually not as many as you might think in the West.
But you know, certainly as Steph Curry right, if that happens in a meaningful playoff series, I think the best option there Jordan Poole, even like you know, if Portland isn't gonna matter, but even if they had to guard like Damon aunt Simons, it's like all of those matchups would be really problematic. So I have my basketball concerns there. I obviously think Katie is unbelievable. I know you've said
you think he's been the best player this season. I have zero problem with that, and I might agree the top four for me is so close between him, Jannie Yo, Kitchen Steph. I think those guys are all basketball gods. But my thought was kind of there is just an overwhelming star power factor here with like maybe the best scoring wing Tan we've ever seen with booking Kde, Like
that's an unbelievable level of talent and versatility. And CP, althoughways had his struggles as a score this year, is still so effective in that playmaker tempo setter, especially if you have two just monsters to feed, like, he's going
to be so great in that role in eight. And you know, if he's consistently dialed in defensively and doesn't really have an offensive burden to try to create for himself, can be this super efficient positive two way for So yeah, I don't think anybody else is matching that top four. And the question is just how far behind the rest of the contenders are they in that five through eight range, And I think the answer is clearly behind. So I don't think that they're beating the Bucks of the Celtics.
I honestly don't think anybody out west is. If I were to pick somebody, it would be Denver or Golden State because I think we've seen with Golden State the two way ceiling last year. We trust their role players, Denver again, trust their top six a lot. Phoenix we don't have that level of confidence yet. But I don't know. This is a really, really, really talented basketball team at the top, So I think we should have high expectations
and guess what, you may be fair to Katie. I think Katie will get grilled if they don't win a title like that may be unreasonable. I mean a title is certainly unreasonable because they shouldn't. Right, They're not as complete or as good of a basketball team we wouldn't think as Milwaukee or Boston. But that's what happens when
you take things into your own hands. There's a certain subsection of people who don't like that, especially with Katie, and I think we'll hear that, well, yeah, that's where you just gotta get off Twitter. My brother, it's like yeah, like yeah, like get like he's not doing that. You're gonna you're gonna face a ton of negativity on there
no matter what you do. Uh, Like I mean like literally, I mean I've seen like shows like Yes Can First take talking about Lebron having pressure during this season, It's like, come on, man, are you freaking kidding me? He hasn't done enough, Jason, I hasn't done enough. Well, he hasn't done enough to apparently make your list of top four players in the league. There? Would you have him there? Have you seen the work he's done over the last three months to float that god awful Lakers roster? Have
you looked into on off numbers? Have you looked at how it they've won every single one of his shifts with like fringe NBA players around him. I think he's top six. Okay, all right, I'll accept it, alexat Yeah. I have one follow up question. Okay, do the Sun's limit their ceiling if they keep the ball in Chris Paul's hands too much? Given how good of a offensive initiator Kevin Durant has met in this season, Like if they slot him into the Michael Bridges roll off the ball,
doesn't that limit their offensive ceiling? Yes, unequivocally. I mean, we know that Katie is unbelievable in really any offensive role, Like we've seen him play more off ball like in Golden State. We know that he's a lethal catch and shooter. But yeah, of course, I mean he's been probably the best pick and roll weapon in basketball this year, and Book is also obviously an unbelievable pick and roll bucket getter and playmaker at this point. So yeah, those are
your two guys. But I do still think there's value in being able to run actions for those guys, getting them open away from the ball. That having CP being so savvy in that role, it's just nice to have that variety and to be able to create them looks in different ways. And I think Phoenix can do that at a level for their star wings that I don't know if anybody else around the league can, So when it comes down to it, yeah, I mean I think we could SEECP get phased out a little bit. But also,
I mean, he's still the lethal switch hunter man. Like, he hasn't been quite as good at his signature mid range short range shot making this year, but we know what he's done the last two playoffs. I mean, he's scoring skyrockets and he just will run pick and roll at the weakest defensive player time and again and again and get that switch and if you're play and drop, it's just oh wow, CP wants to shoot sixty five
percent from midrange. Okay, so I think having that is your third guy offensively, with the ability to pick his spots as a score and with his playmaking genius. I still think CP three really helps this team. I do think. I think he helps and I think there's a role for him, especially in bench groups. I just look at
it like this. I know, I know the way Kevin Durant's gonna look at this, He's gonna be like, Ahi, guys, you just keep playing ball the way you have all slide into that Kale Bridges role will make this whole thing work. I know that's what Kadi's been saying behind the scenes. I just that just seems like something he
would do. And the way I look at it is, you're right, like Devin Booker coming up in that Spain pick and roll action getting shots has worked well, Chris Paul switch hunting and doing all that stuff has worked well.
But Kevin Durant is one of the small handful of players, like the two or three players in the league this year or every team in the NBA has been like trapped every one of his pick and rolls, Like, we cannot allow this guy to come off of this pick and roll clean and playing four on three in the back end with Kyrie and you know, Ben Simmons and Nick Klaxton and Royce O'Neill has generated absurd offensive ratings.
Just imagine if that's Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and Joshua Cogi or whoever it is that's in that spot. I think that the ultimate offensive ceiling of this team is Kevin Durant has the damn basketball and so I'm just really curious how long it takes them to get there, because I do think they'll eventually go that route, especially
when the chips are down. But like you talk about continuity, like those four on threes, you build continuity in making those quick decisions in those four on threes, and I'd like to see them get more practice with that in the coming weeks. That's just one of those like small little storylines with the Sun's offense. And I'm gonna be keeping an eye on here in the next couple months, and I think it's a very interesting one. And I
think it's a good point. Right, Katie's your best player, he's your best offensive engine, and it would be interesting to see CP three back in sort of an off ball roll, which the only time we've seen in his career was Houston with as Hard But you know, I did pretty darn well and that obviously I don't think he's quite the same player he was, but great decision maker again, can be incredibly effective as a shooter. So a guy who can pick his spots and still really
have a pronounced impact. Okay, we've done a lot of talking about the best in the league here Jason, of course, as we enter the home stretch. But on the flip side of that, we have the tankathon going on, which is inevitable in today's NBA, but especially this year given the prizes at the top of the draft that have been discussed so much. With Victor Wamanyama and with Scoot Jason, we've already done a decent amount of talking about those guys.
So I went ahead. I told you that my next favorite guy in this class is a men Thompson, the overteam, overtime, elite guy. Have you had a chance to take a look at him. What are your thoughts? Yeah, it took a look at him yesterday. Thank God for synergy makes it a lot easier to get a good get to get a good feel for these players in a short amount of time. You know, I think he's one of the best wing prospects I've seen in a long time. From the standpoint of his physical tools, he's extremely raw.
The jump shot has miles and miles to go, Like, he's not just missing shots, he's missing him badly. There's gonna be need to be tweaks to the form. There's a little bit of stuff with like the way he sees the floor. He like just flies into into packed paints without really making reads of where the help is and he'll turn the basketball over and a lot of
young basketball players stuff there. But just strictly from the standpoint of his physical tools, you know, we see a lot of like really twitchy and springy wings, and he
obviously has that twitch and he's got that spring. But what he has that I find super fascinating is he's got that like downhill element, like that real straight line power going downhill that we don't see from a lot of wings these days, you know, And I think that that we've seen that so much, especially in playoff basketball, like just Andrew Wiggins and his ability to like rip through and drop a shoulder into the center's chest and make like a little floater in the lane like that
sort of like downhill rim pressure from the wing position I think is super valuable. And even though he doesn't see the four super well yet, he does dribble extremely well for a player his size, And he's got a one of the nastiest hesitation move first step combinations that I've seen. Like you'll put that ball into his right hand kind of sitting at high heasy for a second, and he'll hit the jets and there's like a ridiculous
first step. He's got that Lebron off arm thing where he extends that left arm out and just starts clearing space. And like you're watching these guys in the footage that I've been watching really sitting on his drive because he can't shoot, and he's still just getting persistent rim pressure as a downhill guy. This is what drew me so much to Anthony Edwards was that real nation of downhill power with his vertical athleticism is pull up, jump shooting
and all those different things. That's something that I've been placing a lot of value on around the league. I mean, even just shake Gil just Alexander is one of my favorite guards because of his persistent ability to get to the rim like that I've just especially in playoff basketball and the way that warps defenses and the way the defenses are kind of spread out these days. I put a lot of value to that. Now it's got a lot, like I said, a lot of stuff. He's got to
clean up. The jumper's got like he's going to have to have like a five year plan to fix his jump shot, like it's it's that far away and the floor vision stuff. You know what's funny is he actually impresses me as a passer from the standpoint of like these rifle cross court passes because he that he can throw over the top of the defense. But he struggles a little bit with the with the pile driving into just you know, throngs of people and turning the basketball over.
I I find I like, this is a guy that you'd probably look at as a potential number one pick and other drafts in recent NBA history, just because that physical profile at the wing. Dude, he's kind of he's got wide shoulders and he's already filled out pretty well too, Like he was. It was kind of jarring to watch because I just haven't seen a wing prospect like that
in a long time. He's incredibly unique. I think, like first off, probably along with his twin brother, by the way, who, for those who don't know, was maybe also going to be a top five pick in this class of sar is that the guy that I kept seeing on the footage where I thought it was Yes, This guy looks exactly like Yes. And they wear one in zero, so yeah,
and they're actually pretty similar basketball players. There's a few differences that I think makes a man a better prospect, primarily in my opinion that I love his playmaking ceiling, and I think I've been more impressed by his vision than you. I do agree sometimes he just sort of barrels into traffic. And I also think the key with him all around is Paul is right. I mean, I think his handle needs to be a little bit tighter
and better in traffic. He needs to be a better finisher, he needs to add like a floater element to his game. And his jump shot is not polished. It's broken. It's as you said, I mean, needs to be completely reworked mechanically, especially given that he doesn't even have like natural touch to carry it. So not only is his lower body totally out of whack, and I think at times his follow through he just doesn't have that touch to begin with.
Like he's not a good free throw shooter, so that is going to be a huge swing factor for him. But you have this six seven superathlete, I mean, unbelievably in terms of quickness, unbelievable in terms of vertical ability. Who is this insane pure passer, Like you talk about the ability to rifle stuff one hand, It is incredible, and he's very inventive, like no looks jump passes. He disguises them well, and he's accurate. He's consistently accurate at
leveled it. If you saw from any NBA guard, you'd be like, oh wow. I mean, that guy's a playmaker and is at six seven, so he can see so much. He sees over the top of a lot of these defenders, and I do think his vision is generally pretty good. I think that I actually kind of like that, although he's this super athlete, he does do a nice job
of playing at a relatively controlled pace. I think, not to say that he's perfect, blown away by the way he handled ball pressure and What I like is he sort of has that natural NBA tempo, like you need to have change in pace, right look at Jaw. I mean he's the master of trapping guys behind him and still hitting the floaters and all that on top of being this insane pure athlete. But and then I think
has some of those tools. He comes around his screen, he gets his hanging dribble and he's sort of surveys, Okay, you know what is this pick and roll coverage? Am I going to have the lab here? Am I going to have a shooter? And I think given his athleticism, given his passing ability, it's good that he sees the floor that way and has that point guard mindset. Like I think he loves playmaking and I think that he looks to do it consistently. So I think you said
it very well. Oh. Also, by the way, this is the guy who I think is a very high two way ceiling like great lateral athlete, long, really good ball instincts and generally pretty committed to that end. And he's a transition monster. As I'm sure anybody can imagine this six seven insane athlete handling the ball running the floor
as a wing just lethal there. So if you PLoP this guy in like twenty twenty with Ant who was this incredible athlete but was a flawed prospect, I think playmaking questions, defensive consistency questions, all that, Yeah, he'd be right up there for the number one prospect. He's an insane ceiling. He can be this six seven, hyper athletic playmaking machine who, if he even has a competent jump shot I think is moving into that potentially superstar range.
And even if he doesn't, I think his defense and his playmaking and his athleticism give him like a starter level floor. It's hard if he can't shoot in this league. But it's like you said, I mean sometimes it doesn't matter. You could drop and you can sit on his drives and he might still beat you. So I really really like a man. And again, like, you don't have to be a great jump shooter if you're great at everything else.
What you need is like a base like anything in the low thirties, Yeah, is gonna be if he is a willing shooter. Like that's the thing that everyone that I wish Ben Simmons could figure out, Like, dude, no one's expecting you to go shoot forty percent. They're like, but you have to have a you. And what I have liked about a man is he's he is an aggressive jump shooter. Like he's taking them things. He's just
not making you know what I mean. So like like like he will he will take a step back three and he will if if you sag way off at him, he will rise up and shoot. He does have the um he does have to wear withal and the willingness to take the shot. He just needs to get up to a certain point. And in NBA offenses, they're gonna find a way to make him useful because he does everything else so well, because he pass us so well, because he can handle ball pressure and bring the ball
up the floor. He can you know, get you into your offense in that sense, like that transition threat. There's gonna be so many other ways that he can impact the game. Just has to reach that baseline level. And if he goes you know three overall and ends up in some situation where he can take three four years
to really grow, there's no pressure involved with it. I think that was an underrated element of the Ben Simmons thing, as they were so damn good right away with Joe LMB that he was pressured into his weakness as being hyper analyzed right away. You know what I mean, Like, no one's gonna no one's gonna care if Jade and Ivy is sitting in Detroit running pick and rolls at zero point six five points per possession for two years because he's in the Detroit He's with the Detroit Pistons,
you know what I mean. So like that's that's where that that leeway is bought. But I will say in this particular draft, coming into next season, I understand now why you know, why the Jazz made the deal they did at the deadline to Danny Age, getting them down into a situation where they can tank a little more.
I can see now why Oklahoma City with that kind of like low, let's trade Mike Muscala out of here kind of deal where it's like, there's just a very good chance of you getting a very good player at the top of this draft. And it's just not something that we see very often. Yeah, but I will say every year, especially over the last few it feels like, oh my god, what an incredible draft class, because prospects
are getting better. Like to think about the combination we had last year Pallo's this six ten, freakish, high level ball handler, difficult shotmaker, playmaker while he's you know, two hundred and fifty pounds and super athletic. And Chet is this insane rim protector seven foot who can also shoot forty percent from deep and his quick positionally and a
comfortable handling the ball. And the year before that we have Kade, who's this incredible big ball handlers, shotmaker, playmaker, had it all as a prospect, Evan Mobley, insane defense of weapon with legit offensive skill. It's like prospects are
just getting better. The game is evolving, and big picture, I'm incredibly excited for how that looks because a six seven guy before, I don't know, maybe wouldn't have had that kind of ball handling responsibility, the kind of time to build up that playmaking potentially a guy like him and Thompson has, So it's very exciting. I'm excited for this draft and it's nice to have that on top of an incredibly exciting home stretch to this NBA season.
Have you watched any Browny James a little bit? Did you see that thing this morning from ESPN that Jonathan Givoni sees him as a top ten draft prospect. That surprises me, But I would have to dig in more to confidently speak. I do know that people are getting higher on Brawny as a legit prospect. I the one thing that was interesting to me there is like the focal points where his perimeter shooting in his on ball defense, which are two things that I've seen in the little
bits and pieces that I've watched of him. But like to have a guard that isn't considered like a star level initiator to be considered a top ten pick feels a little bit of a stretch to me. So I when we get to the point where I don't know who he's going to sign with, I'm not even sure if he's picked to school yet. I think he's still undecided.
But like, when I do get an opportunity to watch him in college, that's going to be the number one thing I'm watching because that's going to be the thing at the guard position that's going to be a prerequisite to him being a lottery pick in my opinion. All right, guys, that is all we have for today. As always, we
sincerely appreciate your support. We're going to be starting things back up tomorrow night on AMP right after the final buzzer of Lakers Warriors, and then it's going to be a grind for the next three and a half months, tons and tons of basketball. We are very very excited the U