Hoops Tonight - Jokic & Nuggets blow out Suns in Game 5, how Durant & Booker could still win

that a little bit further back on the feeds. We're just gonna go about five ten minutes tonight on Game five Nuggets Sons. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements. And last but not least, for whatever reason, you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget. You

can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight, all right, let's talk some basketball. So Nuggets beat the shit out of Phoenix tonight to take a three to two series lead. I want to talk about shot quality. This is a dynamic that I talk about a ton on this show, and there's a specific reason why I believe it matters so much. Obviously, shot result is the scoreboard, and you know, if you lose a game, you can't just be like, oh, but we had better shot quality.

Like Paul George famously after Damian Lillard hits the step back three to beat the thunder of what was that two three four years ago? Got I don't remember at this point, but he hits that step back three and Paul George goes into the presser and goes, hey, bad shot. Yeah maybe, but he made it and you lost. So that's the end of story. Like, I don't like focusing on shot quality too much, especially after the fact, because

of the fact that the scoreboard is the scoreboard. That said, when you're planning or projecting or trying to predict, the best indicator of future performance in any basketball game or any playoff series is going to be shot quality. Why because on any one game sample size, there is a bunch of variants that takes place, especially jump shooting. Right, So like Phoenix, for instance, they take a ton of pull up jump shots. That's the most difficult shot in

the game of basketball, literally the most difficult shot. Pull Up jump shots from the mid range, typically on a points per possession basis, are literally the most inefficient shot in the game of basketball. Doesn't mean that they shouldn't be taken. I think it's one of the most important shots, especially in the playoffs, to try to soften up defenses, because that's where a lot of defensive schemes give openings.

That said, it is a very difficult shot, and what makes Phoenix unique as a team is that's literally their bread and butter. They're They're gonna get a solid forty percent of their offense in any given game out of pull up jump shots, right, and so it just is a very difficult It's a difficult thing to do repeatedly, especially against the same opponent when in a playoff series you have to beat a team four times out of seven.

We focus on shot quality for that specific reason. Even within one game, it's a great way to try to to make adjustments or to not adjust right like you're down by ten, the other team's making a bunch of crazy shots. As a coach, you might sit down and be like, hey, we're getting great shots. Don't get discouraged by what's happening on the scoreboard. There's eighty more possessions in this game. Just keep doing what you're doing. It's

gonna bear out. Or if your team is taking bad shots and it's a tie game, you might be like, hey, look, games tied, but we're playing some bad basketball right now. Let's try to reverse that trend so that over the next eighty possessions we can have more success. I picked Denver to win this series in seven because of the specific dynamic of shot quality. I'm a huge believer in Kevin Durant Devin Booker and what they can do. I

believe they're both bonafide superstars. But this offense relies entirely on those two guys making extremely difficult pull up jump shots and then eventually bringing in enough attention for them to spray out to their shooters on the back end. And it's just really difficult to do that four times out of seven. Meanwhile, we look at Nikolojokis, right, he was sixty seven percent during the regular season on hook shots and floaters, which are basically his go to creation moves.

He's gonna get he's gonna take the occasional jump shot, he's gonna have the occasional free rim run here and there. But in terms of the Lion's share of his offense, it's gonna be a lot of shots in the short to mid range that are hook shots, floaters, push shots,

all those kinds of little shots in the lane. He shot sixty seven percent on those in the regular season, and he's only shooting about fifty six percent on those during the playoffs, so he's actually do a little bit of positive regression, or you could at least say that his fifty six percent is going to travel. And you know what, he went on the road and his game traveled with him, which was a big part of why they were in those games. Phoenix has been blown off

the floor in Denver twice. Now. Denver's been in the games in Phoenix both times, particularly in Game four, is a one possession game late and it's because their offense translates on a game by game basis. Like Michael Porter Junior, for instance, finally got going tonight. He was one of the very best. I think he was close to the

end of the year, he was the best. I'm not sure if he ended the year at the best off the look, but he was averaging like one point three points per spot at possession, literally one of the best

catch and shoot three point shooters in the league. Like he got open looks tonight, and he's gonna get a certain amount of open looks naturally in Denver's offense, it's more likely than not that they're gonna go in on a game by game basis, Whereas when we zoom in on Phoenix, it's like game one in game two, forty one percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots, Game three in game four fifty nine percent effective field

goal percentage on pull up jump shots. Then we head back to Denver in game five and guess what, Devin Booker regresses radically back to the mean, Kevin Durant way less efficient than he was in the two games in Phoenix. That the Phoenix has not been able to get their shot quality dynamic to translate to the road, while Denver had and even look. And I picked Denver in seven because I didn't really have a great feel for this series, and I basically picked them because of home court advantage.

But here's the thing. If Phoenix can't get their offense to travel on the road. It won't matter if they win every single game in Phoenix because Denver does have home court advantage. And again, like, are you shocked that Denver's offense got going at home again tonight when Phoenix their big adjustment in game three? In Game four was

to go all in on offensive talent. Like, I'm watching this third quarter run there from Denver and Phoenix is trying to fight to get it back down to fifteen, fourteen, thirteen points going into the fourth quarter, and it's like Jacques Landell's on the floor, he's a blow average defensive player. Campaigns on the floor, He's a blow average defensive player. Terrence Ross is on the floor. He's a blow average defensive player. Devin Booker's on the floor. He's a good

to slightly above average off a defensive player. And Kevin Durant, who's a good to great defensive player. Right, So, like, those defensive lineups are not the kind of lineups that are going to make Denver feel uncomfortable and make them struggle to score. Meanwhile, on the other end, they're because of the difficult shot dynamic, they're not hitting at the same rate that they did in Phoenix. As a result, Denver doesn't have to send as much defensive attention towards

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. It's a cascading effect. Like think of it this way, CACP and Aaron Gordon. Fueled by the home crowd, they applied just a little bit more pressure on those defensive possessions against Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. That flips their shot result a little bit,

that allows everyone else to stay home a little bit more. Now, all of a sudden, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are a little bit in a predicament where they don't have easier They don't have the same easy reads that they had back in Phoenix where it's just pop pop pop around the perimeter to a wide open three point shooter in the corner. So as a result, guys are in passing lanes. Now here come the turnovers. And look at

Denver getting out in transition in this game. Last side check, they were at like almost thirty fast break points in this So like that, it's crazy how that uh that home road dynamic. Just as that little bit of extra defensive pressure which turns those extremely difficult jump shots into even more difficult jump shots, and it just cascades down the line as Phoenix's offense falls apart. And again, like Devin Booker, everything he did in Phoenix was incredibly impressive,

not just incredibly impressive, unprecedented. I genuinely don't remember in my time following the league a shot making performance like what Devin Booker did. Here's the reality. Kevin Durant had the best pull up jump shooting season of his career this year, shot fifty five percent, basically the best pull up jump shooting season I can ever remember anybody having in the regular season. Devin Booker was shooting like seventy percent on pull up jump shots. It's just not possible

to maintain that. It's just not so. The regression was inevitable. It happened. It trickled down the line, and again like they're gonna head back to Phoenix and they're gonna have a good chance to reverse that dynamic, again fueled by their home crowd, as they get a little bit more space on all these shots and they start to knock them down again and they start to draw those double teams, and again Dever has a chance to win that game. They were really competitive in the two Phoenix games earlier

in the series. But don't be surprised if if Phoenix extends this to seven. But the protom line at the bottom line is is they've got to be able to go into Denver and generate high quality shots and they just haven't been able to again. Nikola jokicch like I showed you guys a shot chart on my Twitter feed earlier in the series. When you look at Nikola Jokic's offensive approach, it is all stuff that can be replicated.

All the players that rely on extremely difficult, long distance pull up jump shots, there's a lot more variants in their game. Guys that live in the paint, are near the paint, there's a lot less variance in their game. It translates night tonight. Both of these teams are pretty terrible defensively, that's just a fact. But on the offensive end, Denver has a consistency that they can rely on that Phoenix cannot. Yeah, so great win for Denver up three

to two. Still believe they win the series in seven, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Phoenix ends up getting Game six at home. All right, guys, that's all I have for tonight. We will be back tomorrow night after Game five of Lakers Warriors The volume