Hoops Tonight - Instant Reaction: Jrue Holiday traded to Boston Celtics, NBA title favorites?

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See Sportsbook dot Draft, Kings dot com, slash Football terms for eligibility terms and responsible gambling resources. Bonus bets expire seven days after inch issuance. Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. All right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at the vall you happy Sunday everybody. I hope all of you guys are having a great football Sunday so far. But Drew Holliday, in the latest move in the arms race in the

Eastern Conference, is headed to the Boston Celtics. So I want to do a quick ten to fifteen minute breakdown of that to get you guys ready for this season. You guys are the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter, Underscore jsonlt don't forget about our podcast feed under Hoops tonight and keep dropping those mail bag questions in the YouTube comments so I can hit him next week during our season previews.

All right, let's talk some basketball. So basic breakdown of the trade. The Celtics get Drew Holiday, the Blazers get Robert Williams, the backup center from the Celtics sometimes starting center, and Malcolm Brogden, the guard who was a little annoyed that his name was thrown around in trade conversations this summer even though he did not get traded. And then the Blazers get two more first round picks as well.

Now we're gonna go into further detail, much much further detail on everything involving the Celtics in the season when we do their season preview, which is coming up this week. But today I want to briefly hit what Drew Holliday will bring to the Celtics, what it means for the Bucks Celtics matchup and how they stack up with the Nuggets, and then what it means for the Blazer So we'll just hit three quick things. We'll just go for about ten fifteen minutes this morning. So what woul Drew bring

to the Celtics. I look at it in three parts, what he can do on the ball, what he can do off the ball, and what he can do on the defensive end of the floor. Let's start on the ball. So last year, Drew averaged nineteen points, five rebounds, and seven assists per game on fifty nine percent true shooting. He was one of the best pick and roll ball

handlers in the entire NBA. Last year. He didn't qualify for our high volume list because remember that was a minimum of one thousand, but he ran nine hundred and eighty six. So for all intents and purposes, he was a high volume pick and roll guy last year, one point one to one points per possession, which is outstanding.

If I dropped the qualifier to seven to fifty instead of one thousand, we hit thirty four players who ran at least seven hundred and fifty pick and rolls, and Drew was fourth on that list out of thirty four players, behind only Damian Lillard, Luka Doncic, and Steph Curry. Now, what I noticed on tape this year when I was watching Drew really really nice chemistry with Brook Lopez, in particular on pick and pops and then little short roles.

He was really active as a passer in pick and roll, which is what they needed him to be, right And he also shot really well on pull up threes thirty six percent on four point three pull up three point shots per game. He had a fifty two percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots overall, So you get the idea. If he gets comes off that ball screen has tons of space. He's rising and firing is particularly from three, which helps him with his efficiency.

And then he has really good because he's a bigger, stronger guard. He's really good at leveraging himself physically to create angles for pocket passes and behind the back passes and passes to the popping Lopez at the top of the key. Things along those lines. Just a good combination of passing and shot making. Now I expect him to run some pick and pop with poor zingis because that's

kind of a natural kind of transition, right. But one of the things I'd look for a lot this year is Drew and Jason Tatum running pick and roll together. Tatum is one of the like underrated really good short role players in the league because he's actually really gifted passer and they don't do it that often. I'd like to see them do it more. But it's a great way to manufacture dribble penetration. Remember this is a driving

kick team. They beat you with aggregate ball handling and shooting in a lot of cases, especially in the meat and potatoes of the season, right before we get to

things when they slow down. So like, one of the great ways to manufacture dribble penetration is instead of having a dude dribble seventeen times and try to beat somebody, goes, set a ball screen and slip it and have Drew Holiday hit you on the bounce or on a lob over the top so that you can navigate a four on three and maybe make a play right, because those switches are so difficult to navigate, So look for a lot of Drew pick and roll to try to get

them started offensively. And then he's also one of the better options in the league in switching schemes because he can attack matchups. He was one of the best post up guards in the NBA. Last year. Drew Holiday averaged one point one to four points per possession in post ups including passes. Ninety five possessions too, so that's more than once per game. Now, we heard a lot about this when Brad Stevens was talking about it after the

season when they went after Porzingis. But one of the biggest concerns for Boston is, you know, their top tier ball handlers Tatum and Brown are still developing, right, and so sometimes they can struggle and slow down half court environments. And so one of the things that opponents will do is to start switching, because when you switch, it stagnates them and dares their primary ball handlers to make plays

off the bounce right. And so they vastly improved their versatility in switching schemes offensively this year by adding Porzingis a bona fide post up threat, Andrew Holliday a guard who can punish smaller guards as well. So they just have more ways to attack switching schemes as currently constructed than they did last year. Drew also shot sixty eight percent in the restricted area last year, which is like off the charts good for a guard, and he's properly slotted.

You got to remember in the Bucks offense, they needed him to shoot a lot. And that's not to say that he can't for the Celtics, but I think he's going to get to be like call it twenty percent more so, and how often he's going to be aggressive, and I think that's going to bump his efficiency even further. I'd expect him to be down around like sixteen seventeen

points per game, but over sixty percent true shooting. That's what I see from Drew Holliday this year off ball, deadly, on catch and shoot, jumper sixty seven percent, effective field goal percentage seventy one percent when he was unguarded one point one five points per possession, and spot up situation, so that's including his ability to attack closeouts. That's in the sixtieth percentile, so considerably above average. He's also a

good cutter. He's spend a decent amount of time in the dunker spot, specifically when uh Jiannis would be working from the top of the key in his you know, just kind of like barrel down the lane ISOs a lot of times, like Drew Halla would just kind of naturally end up in the dunker spot, and he can

navigate as a cutter down there. He also will flash high a lot and try to get you know, release valve possessions when when the teams are loading up and pick and roll on Chris Middleton or something along those lines, right, the occasional even see a duck in from Drew Holliday, something that he can do. So he's a really really versatile off ball player as well. I think I think overall on offense, he's a perfect and natural fit next to Tatum and Brown. He already knows how to run

pick and pop from Brook Lopez. That'll be a natural fit with Chris tops porzingis couple things. One, what did we say about Boston and ball handling? So if you remember after they lost to the Heat excuse me, after they lost to the Warriors in twenty twenty two. You know, Colin Coward and I had this long conversation after that series, like what does Boston need? Do they need a guard

like that? Maybe they need to improve their aggregate ball handling, remember, And so they went out and got Malcolm Brogden, And now all of a sudden, it's like because the idea was like Tatum and Brown are not quite ready to be like offensive initiators at the highest level. That was kind of the the takeaway coming from that twenty twenty two series, Right, So Derek White's already there but then you bring in Malcolm Brogden, you vastly increase the aggregate

ball handling on the roster. Right, But then we find out they on into the Miami Heat and the conference finals and a couple of situations against the Sixers as well, when that series dragged on, and it's like, oh wait, Like the ball is still ending up in Tatum and Brown's hands and they're still struggling because like when it push comes to shove, it's like, Okay, is Tatum as good as a half court shot creator as the best guys in the league. Maybe not, but he's better than

Malcolm Brogden, and he's better than Derek White. So like aggregate ball handling is great and all, but like you're not gonna pitch the ball to Derek White and just have him run all your offense down the end of the game, Like he's just gonna get beat by better players. Right, Like if I have a five minute stretch and a pivotal playoff game and it's Derek White trying to create shots versus Steph Curry, like it's not gonna go well

for you. Steph's just better than Derek White, Right, So, like that was the big lesson I learned from the Celtics last year and something that I feel pretty passionately about, Like, really it comes down to Tatum. It comes down to Tatum. Drew's gonna help. We're gonna talk about him on the defensive end of the floor, and he's a huge defensive upgrade. That's what I look at this as as a defensive

upgrade for the Boston Celtics. But when push comes to shove, Jason Tatum's going to have to out execute some of his peers. That's the reality. That is what I said after the season. I feel very strongly about that, like the ultimate ceiling of the Celtics comes down to Jason Tatum's development. Like you can have aggregate ball handling and that will certainly help you in the big picture, but your top end ball handling is what matters the most

in these slow down half court environments. And we just have one of the best top end ball handlers in the league, and Nicola Jokicic just utterly obliterate everyone in the league. And these days it's like you're gonna have to beat to Jokics, You're gonna have to beat Luca. You know, you're gonna date now in the Eastern Conference, because that was the thing. Is in the Eastern Conference, it was like, why does Jimmy Butler keep beating all these guys, And it's because none of them are half

court surgeons, be honest. One of the very best players in the league, not a half court surgeon. Tatum one of the best half court players in the league, not a half court surgeon. Joel Embiid one of the best players in the league, not a half court surgeon. And so they get into these slowdown environments and Jimmy Butler's

just better than them at that. And so that's the thing, is like, now you bring Damian Lillard into the equation, and now there's two guys in the Eastern Conference that you have to navigate through that are half court surgeons and Jimmy Butler and in Damian Lillard, and so like that's the thing. Like I love the Drew trade and we're gonna we're gonna get a little bit further into it. But make no mistake, like Boston's not winning a title unless Jason Tatum goes up a level as a half

court shot creator, and I believe he will. The question is, is it this year or is it next year or is it the following year. Is it gonna happen while this roster is so incredibly talented and put together, or is it gonna happen down the line when payroll concerns arise and they lose some talent. You know, that's gonna

be the ultimate kind of balancing act here. But I do like the idea of going all in on this particular right because at the end of the day, like if you get if Tatum breaks through, this team's winning it. They just have too much talent. This was already the most talented roster in the league before we brought Drew Holliday, before we brought Kristaps Porzingis into the mix. So like, Tatum just just has to make the lead, and if he does, I really do think this team is gonna

end up holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Now let's move on to the defensive end of the four. Drew is one of the most versatile pick and roll defenders in the league. I want to emphasize versatile for a minute, because what does that mean to me? That has to do with scheme to scheme versatility. So, for instance, there are a lot of point of attack defenders who are really good at navigating screens and bothering ball handlers, but really struggle when they get switched onto bigger players. I

just covered one of these guys with the Lakers. That's Dennis Schroeder. Right, Like, there are a lot of guys that are small, quick, scrappy, can navigate screens, but god forbid they get switched. It's just a problem, you know. Or like a big man has to contain the ball handler because they get caught on a screen once and then they have to try to crack down on the bit on the opposing big man to try to box him out, and he just has no chance because he's tiny. Right.

There are a lot of guys who are good at sliding their feet in an open floor situation and containing the ball, but struggle to navigate screens. Anthony Edwards is a guy like that. Anthony Edwards really really good on ball defender, but has to develop the ability to navigate screens better. That's something he'll figure out in the long run. Right. There are a lot of guys who can do everything on the ball but struggle off the ball. And that's

what's unique about Drew Holidays. He can literally do it all. He can navigate, you can nagate, can't speak. He can navigate screens really well. He has the length and athleticism to bother players from behind with back pressure. He can contain the ball straight up in isolation situations. He can switch on to forwards and guard in the post. He

can defend off the ball. He actually is a really good feel for defensive playmaking, which is like when you break off script to try to make a play like a random double team or jumping a passing lane or something along those lines. It's a major basketball like q thit and you can do some damage to your team if you're not careful. But Drew just has a really

good feel for that kind of stuff. And famously, in the twenty twenty one NBA Finals, one of the biggest plays of the series was him making an impromptu double team of Devin Booker from behind when he had his head turn trying to isolate PJ. Tucker. So I think, just in general, this is a massive step forward for the Boston defense. This is the Boston defense that took a big step back last year from the standpoint of

their effort and energy. I know a lot of Celtics fans are annoyed with me about this because I keep saying it, But like, go look at the numbers and then watch them on TV. Like the twenty twenty two Celtics were a frightening defense, the twenty twenty three Celtics were a good defense, and like they didn't lose any players. It literally came down to from the top down every single play on the roster. From Marcus Marto was Defensive Player of the Year the year before and went down

a level. Jason Tatum, who I said, what might be the best perimeter defender in the league this year year before locking down, he went down a level. Jayalen Brown went down a big level, Like everybody on that roster went down a level defensively, and so Drew Holliday is a good starting point there for them to try to get that identity back. Now, what does it mean for the Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks matchup? To me, this is

the super interesting part of this story. Dame is gonna have to overcome his demons because as we look back through Dame's career, it's kind of like if somebody asked you to tell me the story of of the Dame NBA experience, most of you are gonna say the same thing. You're gonna be like, really good player, bona fide superstar, but was playing for a limited roster most of his career, was mostly an underdog and didn't really accomplish much in

the playoffs. That's what you'd say. And for the most part, it's true. Like Dame lost a lot of playoff series against teams where he was an underdog. We know that, right, But there was one in particular where he was not. In the twenty eighteen NBA playoffs, the three seed Portland Trailblazers run into the six seed New Orleans Pelicans. Now they were kind of bunched up in the standings, but they were favored, and Dame got his ass kicked by

Drew Holliday, just got utterly locked up. Anthony Davis was awesome too, and the Pelicans swept the Portland Trailblazers, And so it's kind of cool. I always talk about, like, you know, the beauty of the journey when it comes to basketball, right, like loss leading to scar tissue, scar tissue leading to better habits and better commitment. That the better habits and commitment leading to wins, right, Like it's

a pathway. Right. I also talk about stars needing to dig deep and achieve things that they've never achieved before to get the trophy. It's why I don't like when teams are monumentally more talented than the rest of the league. And here's the thing. The Bucks and the Celtics are really talented. They're not monumentally more talented than the rest of the league. Like they're just as Like Denver's right there with them, right, Phoenix is right there with them,

The Lakers are right there with them. Like they're five teams at the top of this league that are all kind of on the same tier. Right, And so from that standpoint, like I like it that one of these teams is gonna require a star to rise above and achieve a level of play that even they didn't think they were capable of. Right. And that's the thing, Like Dame's gonna have to earn it. He didn't get traded, be honest and get to walk his way into a title.

Not only is he gonna have to earn it, but he's gonna have to confront one of his demons and one of his demons is that Drew Holliday has his damn number, and Drew Holliday from day one of a Celtics Bucks playoff series is gonna be up in Dames grill, making it difficult. And so that's cool because that means if Milwaukee gets the trophy, Dame will have had to have overcome that. Now, as I look at the matchups.

As I look at the matchups, there's a couple It kind of reminds me of like transitive property stuff because in a weird way, I think the Celtic are built to beat Milwaukee, but I think the Milwaukee Bucks are built to beat Denver. But I think Denver's built to beat Boston. And the reason why is the strengths and weaknesses of all the rosters. Right, Like, Boston is uniquely equipped to give the Bucks problems on both ends of

the floor. Drew Holliday is an ideal defensive matchup for Damian Lillard, right and in general, that team on the other end of the floor doesn't have a lot of perimeter defense, and Boston's a team that's gonna stretch you out like Dame's gonna have to guard. Giannis and Chris are gonna have to guard They're probably gonna have to

guard Tatum and Brown for an entire series. They're gonna have to slide their feet on the perimeter, right, So like that's the thing is, like Boston is kind of uniquely equipped to force Milwaukee into playing a style that

they're not good at. Right. But then as I go the other way, like if Boston beats Milwaukee and makes it to the finals, their front court right now, they lost Grant Williams, who's one of their bigger switchable forwards, and they lost Robert Williams, who's arguably the best defensive player on that roster. Right, and now your two bigs are krisps Porzingis, who's a very good player and we're gonna talk a lot about him next week, but it has an injury history and Al Horford, who's pretty damn old.

So like, the Celtics need a good amount of luck injury luck to get to where they want to go this year. And when you put krisps Porzingis and Al Horford in a front line, I don't know how much they'll play together. They probably will have to play together a little bit against Denver. But like if you put those two on the front line. That's just not that good defensively to handle a Jokic Gordon front line, So like in a weird way, they could run into some

problems with Denver. Also, you need to be outstanding in your perimeter shot making to cause problems for Denver. And like Drew Holliday's a good pull up shooter, Jason Tatum's a good pull up shooter. But like Jason Tatum barely cracked thirty percent on pull up threes last year. They're gonna have trouble really stretching Denver's defense the way that

they need to. Whereas Milwaukee has the front line to cause problems for Denver, Milwaukee has Dame who is such a high level perimeter shot maker he can really stretch out Yokichen pick and roll and cause problems and keep them in rotation a lot. So like it's interesting because, like I all three of these teams are good in different ways, But right now I think Denver would beat Boston, Boston would beat Milwaukee, and Milwaukee would beat Denver. So like it, And that's kind of like just the way

these matchups are shaking out. So like this is gonna be really interesting year, and just as is always the case, matchups and luck and health is gonna play a huge role and has in how this all shakes out all. Right, last thing for today, Portland. I love this deal for Portland for two reasons. One, now you have two very different big men to evaluate to see who fits long term with your guards, right, because Robert Williams is like a defensive guy who's very willing to play a role

like he doesn't need to shoot. And Robert Williams is actually a better short role passer than excuse me, then he's a better short role passer than DeAndre Ayton is. And that could be really valuable with a ton of really good guards, especially guards like Anfredie Simons that are good pull up shooters that are gonna pull the screen defender out. And so anytime team's put two on the ball against Portland, like Robert Williams is a great option there in a short role, right. But then Ayton is

just a much much better offensive player overall. So you know, all of the dribble handoff stuff we've been talking about with teams like Miami and Golden State and teams like Sacramento and all the advantages of having a big man who can run dribble handoffs, like now you can really try that with Ayton and see if he's capable of it, you know. So they've got good you know, they've got a couple of options there that they can kind of explore.

And then secondly, they got the Malcolm Brogden' contract back, which is going to be another player that everyone's going to want to trade for early in training camp. So like by the time it's all said and done, this is going to have broken really well for Portland. Alright, guys, that is all I have for today. We will be hitting the Bucks and the Celtics each in season preview videos this coming week. As always, I appreciate you guys, and I will see you on Monday. The volume