Hoops Tonight - How Warriors can beat Lakers in Game 4, Suns tie up Nuggets, Celtics-76ers

hit Warriors, Lakers, Suns, Nuggets, and Celtics Sixers. You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements. And if, for whatever reason, you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish,

don't forget. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight, all right, let's start number one, Warriors Lakers who will play with more force? Now, we

talk a lot about tactical adjustments on this show. In this particular series on the Lakers side of things, that's been switching Jared Vanderbilt onto Draymond Green so that they could switch the Steph Draymond pick and roll, Anthony Davis coming much higher out of his drop coverage with active hands to dissuade the pocket pass, getting him touches on the move in the Lakers offense so that he can attack downhill at Draymond Green, and just in general playing

with force and the reason why I want to talk about force Draymond Green himself in his Game three A podcast for the Volume, And I actually tweeted this link out so you can see the specific quote from Draymond Green that I'm talking about if you guys go to my Twitter feed. But he talked about like, hey, like,

who's gonna play with more force? Like the Lakers played with more force in Game three, the Warriors played with more force in Game two, he said, And I thought it was a really well put point by Draymond Green. He goes, he goes, the biggest adjustment that any NBA team can make in the playoffs is to play with more force. Now, what does that mean? That means that everything you do is harder you're sliding your feet better. Defensively,

you're crashing the boards harder. You're running the floor harder. In transition on offense, when you make a cut, you cut harder. When you set a screen, you set the screen with more physicality. When you drive the ball to the rim, you drive the ball to the rim with purpose and force. It essentially is just all of the physical exertion of the game. Who wins that battle. I love the tactical side of things. I think it's super interesting. You guys know that we focus a lot on that

in this show. But no matter what, every coverage can work as long as it's executed properly. And execution is a lot of the mental side of things and being in the right spots and knowing your job. But it's also doing your job right. Like a pick and roll, for instance, where we set a high ball screen, the big man rolls to the basket and a shooter relocates to the top. If the big man doesn't set a hard enough screen on the ball handler, he's not gonna

get separation. Plays blown up the Spain pick and roll shooter relocating from the basket up to the top of the key if he doesn't cut hard and with purpose and get his feet set ready to shoot, he won't be able to make them pay for being left open, and the play can cease to function. If the ball handler doesn't set up his man for the ball screen properly to get him caught on it, the whole play

can blow up again. It's less about the coverage, is less about the tactical side of things, and more about the players just doing their jobs harder, faster, stronger, and more in tune with what the game plan asks. Right. And you know, it's funny because that one of the biggest plot lines of this particular series has been the foul line and getting just the officiating in general. And in the first game, I thought the Lakers played with more force. They got to the free throw line a

ton the Warriors did it. I had a lot of Warriors fans go like, hey, you said the Warriors got a better whistle in Game two, Why is it that they were even in free throws? That's play style, like naturally with the way these teams play, with the Lakers having a couple of guys, and guys like Dennis Schroeder or Austin Reeves or are gifted at drawing fouls, like foul grifting. Danzel Russell, I'd throw in that group two.

He's really good at like dribbling and extending that right arm and waiting for you to grab that arm and then going up into his shot knowing he's gonna get a foul. Now, the NBA has fought against those things by making it so that if you do an unnatural shooting motion, it's just a regular foul and not a shooting foul. But hey, you get five thouls in a quarter, you're going to the foul line. They've been able to

grift their way into free throw attempts. Then Lebron James and Anthony Davis, Dennischroedder as well just playing with a ton of downhill force attacking the rim. Those things combined to make them throughout this entire season one of the very best teams at getting to the foul and that's been consistent throughout the year. The Warriors totally different type of offensive style. They take a ton of off the

dribble and movement jump shots. Those are just far less likely to send you to the foul line, and they don't really rely on foul drifting that much. It's not really in the identity of any of their players, and so the Warriors all season long were a team that

didn't get to the free throw line very often. So when we see the free throw dynamic oscillate in this series, it's going to go from being more even where both teams kind of attempt the same amount of free throws to the landslide Laker victories where they attempt twenty twenty five to thirty more free throws than the Warriors. That's just the dynamic. You're not going to see a game in this series where the Warriors attempt thirty five free

throws and the Lakers attempts ten. That is physically impossible because of their play styles. But in my opinion, the whole like home court back and forth thing only plays a tiny role in officiating. What really plays a role in officiating is playing with force. So, for instance, if I, as the defender, am not playing with as much force, not sliding my feet as well, not anticipating things before they happen, not being as dialed in and locked in,

my rotations are a bit slower. I'm slower fighting over screens. I am going to be out of position now, if I am out of position as a defender and the offensive player is playing with force, setting hard screens, cutting with force, driving with force, pushing in transition with force, they're going to be coming at me while I am out of position, which is going to force me to either concede an open layup or to commit fouls. I use the example of the two plays where Draymond Green fell.

His final foul is fifth foul. I disagreed with the one where Draymond Green got knocked over by AD. Thought that was a bad call, and like we talked about, bad calls happened in NBA games. But the two before that where Draymond tried to take a charge, I thought he was just a second late because AD is playing with a certain amount of force and Draymond didn't quite

match it. That same dynamic flips in Game four. Draymond moved this feed a little bit quicker, anticipates it a tiny bit faster, Anthony Davis not quite bringing the same level of downhill force. Now he's in position instead of out of position, and that is a charge. That's kind of the dynamic that I'm talking about. Now, playing with force is going to determine what the whistle is. Laker played with more force in Game one, shot a ton more free throws. Warriors played with a ton more force

in Game two, much more even free throw dynamic. Game three, Lakers play with a ton more force. They dominate the game in the at the foul line. So why specifically does the whistle matter so much in this series? Because of the fact that Anthony Davis and what he's capable of as a defender, has just about erased the Warriors half court offense, not completely erase, but in this playoff setting, he's done a ton of damage to the Warriors half

court offense. Right, But the Lakers have one of the worst transition defenses in the league, if I believe they were like twenty ninth or something. As you're off to look it up and I'll bring it up next time we talk about it. But that means that the Warriors have an infinitely higher chance of scoring against the Lakers when they get out in transition versus when they're attacking

their set defense in the half court. So if the Lakers can get to the foul line thirty times in a game, and I think they were almost forty times in Game three, if they get to the foul line a ton. Every single time they do that, they get to set their defense, whereas if they don't send them to the foul line, they can push on every single

miss and even a made shot. While it is easier to set your defense in a made shot situation, it is harder to set your defense in a maide shot situation than a made free throw situation, because in the free throw situation, I've already got three defenders back. They're already back. The other two guys you know, they're usually your guard. They're usually put guards in there so they can pick up the ball handler right after the inbound

the ball, like your defense is already set. But the Warriors, if they stay out of foul trouble, can push on misses and push on makes and have a much higher chance of catching the Lakers before Anthony Davis is prepared to blow up everything they do offensively. So when I say who will play with more force is the deciding factor in the series, it's because whoever plays with more force will get a better whistle, and whoever gets a better whistle will be able to set their defense better

and that will end up winning the game. So more heading into Game four tonight, I expect this game to be very close because I expect the Warriors to play with a lot more force than they did in Game three, and I expect the Lakers to play with a little bit less. I expect it to be close, and it's gonna come down to at the end of the game Steph Curry trying to create offense against this Laker defense and how many stops the Lakers can get to get

out to get out in transition. As of right now, per my prediction before the series of Lakers and six, I predict the Lakers will win a tight, close game tonight, then go on the road to Golden Satan Game five and lose before they close out the series in game six. All right, let's move on to Sun's Nuggets Number two. Can Phoenix bring their pull up jump shooting on the road?

So what did I say before the series? I said that this entire series was gonna come down to Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and Chris Paul though he ended up not playing, but their ability to knock down pull up jump shots off the dribble. Right, Kevin Durant doesn't get to the rim very much, although he's done a much better job in the last two games of attacking the rim with as much physicality as he can get into the foul line, generating offense there, But both him

and Devin Booker they're a little thins. So like when Denver actually has the paint pack, there's not a whole lot they can do to get to the rim or force their way for easy shots close to the paint the way that Jokic can do on the other end, right, So, so much of what they do offensively comes down to can they hit these tough, contested pull up jump shots and hit enough of them to draw enough attention so that you open up opportunities for your teammates on the

other side of the floor. And in the two losses in Denver, they he got a forty one point three percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jumpers, not very good. They averaged just twenty nine points per game

on pull up jumpers in those first two games. Then they come to Phoenix and they shot fifty nine percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jumpers at home, averaging forty four points per game, so an eighteen percent improvement in effective efficiency and a fifteen point per game uh improvement in total volume. So just in the they went two to zero in those games that they shot well, and they went zero to two in those games that

they didn't. So, just like we predicted before the series, pull up jump shooting for the Suns has been the determining factor in this series so far. Now on an adjustment level, I thought this was really smart for Mani Williams. He stopped going to Tory Craig, and he stopped going to Josha Kog and he went heavy on his players that can shoot. Guys like Terrence Ross, guys like TJ. Warren,

Guys like Landry Shammon. Right, Landry sha It was the beneficiary of a lot of those double team kickout threes in the week's side corner in game four. You know KD post up draw that double team swing swing swing Landra Shamitt's wide open. You know, Devin Booker comes off of pick and roll drags both players swing swing, swinging,

Landri shammittt wide open three Right. There was even a really nice counter from Devin Booker that I liked at the end of Game four where Lander Shamott was open on the weak side, but Deandreyton just a deep sealed on Michael Porter Junior underneath the basket. Devin Booker made a really nice feed to Deandreton under the basket and made a little hook shot in the lane. Again, that's

the dynamic. They need to make enough shots that the Nuggets sell the farm to stop them so that they can get all these wide open shots on the weak side. If Devin Booker and KD don't make those shots, if they shoot forty one percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots, the Nuggets are gonna be much more willing to let KCP, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, those guys take those defensive assignments more on an island because

the efficiency isn't quite there for Booker and KD. Then you can stay home off the ball at least to a better extent and limit some of those off ball shots. So everything comes down to those pull up jump shots. They have to make them. They have to make enough of them to draw the attention. Then they can take advantage of all the offensive personnel that they have on the floor. And then on the other end of the floor. You know that's been what's nice is they struggle to

contain this Jokic Murray attack. But they were struggling to contain it even with Tory Craig in Joshua Kogi. But at least at this point, they're giving themselves a chance to outscore Denver, which they've now managed to do twice in the series. All right, number three Celtics sixers. I think that the Celtics have to start devoting extra attention to James Harden the way they did to Joel Embi. Now this is kind of crosswise to the way you

used to guard James Harden. Like I've always said over the last couple of years, like hey make James Harden a score and send throw the kitchen sink at Joel and b And the reason why I believed that was because James Harden typically over the course of his career in series fades late in the series as teams start

to figure out his ISO moves. But credit to James Harden, he has even in this environment where Boston is forcing him to play to his weaknesses, he has been able to counter that and have success playing to his weaknesses.

James Harden's typical weakness is he can't score in the mid range and he can't go right, and the only way he goes right is for that step back three right, And so a lot of times James Harden will play into that by settling for really tough step back threes that he doesn't make as much at the end of series, or driving into too much contact at the paint and not being able to finish and not being able to get to the foul line as the whistle gets tighter

in the playoffs. That's what used to be the case. James Harden has proven in this series that is no longer the case. He is getting stronger. He was the best player for the Sixers last night. He saved them while Joel Embiid was fading on nder, the individual defense of Al Horford down the stretch of that game. And what was so interesting to me about it is he did it all in the mid range, driving to the right, so Boston forced him to what he's uncomfortable doing, and

he succeeded doing that. There was a late play, late clock situation isolation on Jason Tatum. Jason Tatum cuts off his left hand, he gets back to his right, bumps him hard with his shoulder and makes a floater in the lane. Then he gets JACLEB. Brown in a late clock rescue possession situation, same thing, drives left, gets cut off, gets back to his right hand hard step back jumper, mid range jump shot, and then the final possession that

tied it to send it to ot. I want to say it was like one to five, one or three at this point. He gets the ball in bounds, catches al Horford on a switch. It drives hard to the left. Al Horford, just like every Celtics defenders done in the entire series, cuts him off. James Harden cuts back to his right, gets into the lane and makes the floater

that ties the game. James Harden has proven that he has improved his weaknesses enough to be a dominant playoff player in the mid to late portions of series in a way that he didn't used to be earlier in his career. Credit to James Harden. But Boston has to do something about it. So tactically, down the stretch of that game, Philly had PJ. Tucker on the floor and

they had Marcus Smart on PJ. Tucker. Now, in those last two shots, the Jalen Brown step back, the stepback over Jalen Brown and the floater on Al Horford Tatum one. They had four shooters on the floor, so I'm not sure what you can do there other than concede a three point shot to somebody. But when PJ. Tucker was on the floor for those last two shots, Marcus Smart offered very late help. He's guarding PJ. Tucker sitting in the lane as as James Harden is already getting downhill

and already shed Jalen Brown. Then Marcus Smart comes up and offers it a helpless contest on that little jump shot in the lane. On the Al Horford shot, same thing, just way too late to get involved in the play. He was guarding PJ. Tucker in the corner on this one, came sprinting in at the end and offered like a kind of a meaningless contest after James Harden had already got to the peak of his release. In this situation, you have to do what you would do to Joel Embiid.

What happened at the end of the game when Joel Embiid had a hard drive on Al Horford at the end of ot What did the Celtics do Jaylen Brown on James Harden abandoned James Harden to attack. Joel Embiid left James Harden of all people wide open, and he made the three that ended up being the eventual game winner. You have the ability to do that with Marcus Smart

and yeah, PJ. Tucker is gonna have a free run to an offensive rebound or something along those lines, but you have the size in athleticism to gang a rebound around him, especially with Horford under the rim. So when James Harden is going to he's ISOs at the end of the game and PJ. Tucker is on the floor, I think they need to sell out off of off of PJ Tucker with Marcus Smart to get the ball

out of James Harden's hands. He's cooking everybody. He cooked your two best perimeter defenders and Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum. He was victimizing Malcolm Brogden down the end of that game. You need to do something to get the ball out of James Harden's hands. He has now torched you in live ball, dribble isolations, situations above the break in two games in the series, and you lost both of them. He's proven he can beat you when he when you funnel him to his weaknesses. Got to get the ball

out of his hands. All right. My three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. Earn five percent on travel purchased or Chase three percent on dining including takeout, three percent at drug stores, and one point five percent on everything else. How do you cash back? All right, guys, we will be back later tonight after the final buzzer of Warriors Lakers. As always, I appreciate you guys a couple more weeks on this grind before we get to

the NBA Finals. It will be a little different as we go every third night, but we'll have stuff during the day as well. I appreciate you guys rocking with me, and I'll see you later tonight. The volume