Hoops Tonight - How Jayson Tatum & Celtics offense can ATTACK Luka Doncic & Mavericks

get started. Try betting on something simple like picking a team to win. Go to the DraftKings Sportsbook app, select your squad and place your first bet. It's that simple. The odds for the NBA Finals are up on DraftKings right now. You can get Boston at minus two twenty to win the title. Dallas is at plus one seventy five. New to DraftKings listen up. New customers can get a

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based on amount of initial losing bet. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See dkang dot co slash bball for eligibility, wagering and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to hoops to night here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, oh ball. If you guys had a great weekend and then you're having a great start to your week. Where are beginning our coverage of the NBA Finals today, starting with focusing

on Boston with the Ball on Offense. Tomorrow, we're gonna do the same thing with Dallas with the ball on Offense. We're gonna have film in both of those sessions. I've got seventeen clips to go over with you guys. Today, we're gonna go just through all of the Boston stuff in a monologue at the start at the start, and

then we'll get into the film at the end. And then Wednesday morning we have the nerd session, guys coming on, and I'll probably have just like a shorter video that just kind of has my prediction and everything else is looking from thirty thousand feet. After we get done with the film sessions, you guys are the drill before we get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I YouTube channels, you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore json lt so you guys don't

miss show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast few wherever you get your podcast on our Hoops tonight and keep dropping mail back questions in those YouTube comments, so we can keep hitting them throughout the rest of this series and into the summer. All right, let's talk some basketball. So we're gonna start from the series as a whole, talk a little bit about the gambling odds as well as the season series and just what I noticed in film watching this morning, and then we'll focus in on

Boston with the ball on offense. According to DraftKings, Boston is currently favored at minus two to ten to win the series. If you want to bet Dallas as the underdog and get them right now plus one seventy five. That is a substantial favorite, but easily the closest series that Boston has played to this point in terms of the gambling odds. The season series went two to Ozero to Boston. Both games ended in blowout fashion. Closest one

was probably the March first game. Even though the final score was further apart the game in Dallas, Boston led by a large margin throughout. In the March first game in Boston, Dallas actually Dallas actually cut the score down to two in the third quarter, but Boston blew it open over the end of the third and into the fourth quarter. The main thing that stood out to me on film, Dallas was really bad defensively in that game.

It's kind of weird going back and watching a bad version of this Dallas defense because they've been good for a really long time. This was in that stretch when they went on that East Coast road trip and they got shredded. Those of you guys who followed the show during the regular season will remember me talking about how that was like a big opportunity for them to demonstrate that with their new personnel they got at the trade the deadline that they could defend and it just didn't

go well. They got shredded in that entire entire road trip. As a matter of fact, in the month surrounding that game, so that game was on March first. If you go from February fifteenth to March fifteenth, Dallas was twenty ninth in defense over that span. So basically just a completely different type of team now than what they were when

they faced Boston in the regular season. Now, to be clear, Boston presents some real issues for the Dallas defense, and very different issues than what Minnesota presented, right, So, like, I do think that Boston will have success against this Dallas defense. I just think it'll look a lot more challenging that it looked during the regular season. So metrics, Boston had a one to twenty nine offensive rating in the two matchups. They shot a sixty four percent true

shooting percentage. Shot jump shots really well in both games, especially in the March first game. They had a one point three to three points per jump shot stat out of that game, one point one to one in the January twenty second game, So the shot well both games. Main play type data that was fascinating to me was their ability to attack Dallas in the post. They posted

them up eighteen times total in the two games. They got one point four to three points per possession in the January twenty second game, one point three to six in the March first game. Those are two excellent numbers, and so that especially when we started talking about the ball screen defense and defending porzingis them being able to hold up and switches in the post is going to be a huge part of their defensive success in this

series as far as matchups go. In the March first matchup, Dallas had Josh Green in the starting line still and they use Josh Green on Tatum, PJ. Washington on Jlen Brown, my guess is they'll start the same way, but with Derek Jones in for Josh Green. So I think they'll start with Derek Jones on Tatum and PJ. Washington on

Jlen Brown. But I do think we'll see some switching there, or I shouldn't say switching, but I think we'll see them move those matchups around a little bit, specifically because if Jalen Brown just starts having success beating PJ. Washington off the dribble because he's not as laterally quick as Derek Jones, and since Tatum has a tendency to settle for pull up jumpers and PJ. Washington is a little bit taller, I wouldn't be surprised if we see them

move those matchups around a little bit. But I do think they'll start with Derek Jones on Tatum, especially with their intent on trying to at least attempt to run drop coverage with Porzingis, which we'll get to in a little bit. But again, I expect Derek Jones to start on Tatum, PJ. Washington on Brown, they might move that around Kyrie Reguard, Derek White, Luka Doncic most likely on

Drew Holliday and Gafford Lively on chrisops Porzingis. I want to start in terms of actions because we're gonna get into I Basically, I am going to focus in on three different concepts in this In this offensive breakdown, porzingis in ball screens, porzingis off the ball and the issues that that presents. And then any sort of action involving Tatum probably geared towards attacking Luka Doncic. That's what we're

going to be focusing in on today. Now. I want to start with the Porzingis picking pop and to get my best feel as to how Dallas was going to cover this, I went not just to the regular season but also to the Oklahoma City Thunder series because with Chet Holmer and they presented a similar issue and they defended it really well, and I wanted to look into

some of the specific ways that they did that. Now, to be clear, before we get into the specifics, Chet is just not as good at three point shooter as chrisops Porzingis. He was six for twenty seven from three in that series. That's twenty two percent on wide open threes when the defender was at least six feet away,

he was three for twelve. So obviously Porzingis is a better shooter, so it's going to be a little bit more of a challenge, But schematically it's a similar type of problem with his will to pop. Also one thing with Chet, he rolled a lot more. Porzingis does roll, but Chet did a lot of slipping and rolling in that series, and so the pick and pop wasn't as much of a threat because they just didn't go to it as much. Now I want to start with the

Lively matchup Lively. I think they'll switch with any sort of action involving Porzingis, I think they'll just switch, mainly because Lively does really well on switches. He's defended fourteen ISOs in switches in this postseason run and he's allowed just four made field goals. Opponents have shot thirty six percent against him, and they're getting to zero point seventy nine points per possession in those ISOs against Eric Lively.

So he just holds up really well in switches. And I think that, and I'll show you guys some examples on film of him holding up and switches against Jalen Brown and against Drew Holliday. Like that to me, is where he has a unique capability to allow them to kind of shut down the porzingis pick and pop by just simply switching. But there's two things that can arise if as an issue for Dallas. On the other side of that, I don't worry about Lively on the switch.

I think he can defend out there about as well as anybody else on the perimeter, So like, I don't think he's gonna have issues. The main issue is you're taking a Derek Jones Junior or a PJ. Washington or one of the guards, and you're moving him on to Chris Tops porzingis who will look to immediately attack in the post. In the one game that Porzingis played against Dallas this year, posted up five times and scored on three of them for seven points. That's one point four

points per possession. That's really good, right, So like they will look to attack on the other side of that action. The other thing is, and this is not just for porzingis this is really for all of the actions. Boston does slip out of screens really well, especially with Tatum, where he'll set a screen, he'll just kind of slip out to like the elbow and then catch and he'll

run a four on three. I wouldn't be surprised too if we see some of that with Porzingis where he kind of rolls into like the fifteen foot areas, slipping out of those screens. The main reason why is a lot of the times they will switch with Lively, but it starts as a drop, so it's like the guy on the ball chases over the top. Lively catches the offensive player and just kind of switches, and then that

guy will peel off back to the screener. But when that happens, if he's chasing and the screener slips, he's now in trail position. He's on his top side. In Porzingis or whoever it is that slips out of that action is now has the inside position towards the rim, which can cause problems where they don't even need a post up. You're just bringing a defender over and help, or he's getting a dunk, right. So I think we'll see a lot of slipping from Boston and then looking

to go back to Porzingis in the post. One of the counters that we might see for that is I wouldn't be surprised if we see Dallas go a go a bit bigger. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some Kaleba. I think we're gonna see a lot of Kleiba in general. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see some Kliba and Lively together, because if they have Kliba and Lively out there together, they can switch and

also maintain their ability to defend in the post. So like a Tatum Porzingis two man game with Kaliba on on Porzingis and PJ. Washington on Tatum, you can just switch that and then not have to worry necessarily about dealing with Porzingis looking to attack in the post. Right, So like I think, I think we might see some bigger lineups. Also that that's still even in the situation where you're on a guard action. So like let's say, for instance, Kleiba's on Porzingis, but now you bring Tatum

up into the screen with PJ. Washington and they switch, and all of a sudden, Tatum has a smaller defender on him, or Porzingis gets a guard on him and he's looking to post a guard. You have more size on the floor in general, so that if Derek Lively gets pulled out to the perimeter on a switch, you just have more big bodies under the rim to help and recover or to clean up the defensive glass. So I think we'll see some bigger versions of Dallas in

this series, and we did see a lot. We did see a Gafford Kliba lineup in the I think it was in the March first game if I remember correctly, but they did go to a big lineup during the season. But switching with Lively, switching with Kliba Gafford, they run more drop and then just try to have him close out.

The main reason why there is just Gafford's best trait on like Gafford's strength, what separates him from the other frontline players for Dallas is Gafford is a great rim protector, right, but his rim protection is a little less valuable in this series because Boston has shooting bigs and they space the floor, so it's actually more important for them to get mobility in space from the five spot in this series.

So I think in general, we're going to see more Kleiba and Lively just because that's what's going to be more fitting for this matchup. But when Gafford's on the floor. Judging by what we saw in the Oklahoma City series, they will have Gafford operate in a drop with the defender chasing over the top, and then he'll just try to close out to the three point line to offer a late contest if Porzinga starts hitting. I think we'll

see some rotations from the weak side. There's a clip that I'll show you guys where in the Oklahoma City series where PJ. Washington was guarding Sheep on the left wing, there was a ball screen. I think Jay dub was running the action, chet popped and instead of Gafford closing out, they just had PJ. Washington slide over and contests and then they rotated on the backside. So I think we'll

see some stuff like that. But I do think over the course of this series we'll see less Scafford, and I wouldn't be surprised if before the end of the series we actually see Derek Lively start a game in this series. But again, the main concern there with the pick and pop with porzingis is he will pop above the break and he's willing to shoot out by like twenty six twenty seven feet and so even when you offer those closeouts, it's just a different challenge than what

it was with chet Holmgrin. One last thing on porzingis this is porzingis in help when he's in spot up situations. So Boston's gonna look to attack Luca, and we're gonna get into some more specifics with that later. But I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Boston's action actually

doesn't involve Porzingis. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a lot of like Tatum White to game or Holiday Brown two man game looking to attack Luka Doncic, or looking to attack Kyrie Irving when they get those switches or whenever they get a matchup that they like, or if they do get a slip cut or something that breaks

open on the backside. That is where Porzingis to me becomes an even bigger problem for Dallas because there are situations where and I'll show you an example on film where Derek Lively's in position to step over in help on a Jalen Brown driving layup out of the right corner, but he doesn't because he's scared of Porzingis spotting up on the right wing who he would have to leave

open in order to offer help. He doesn't help Jalen Brown gets in and gets a layup, And so that to me is the bigger Porzingis issue is just is Lively going to be able to help on the back line? Is Gafford going to be able to help on the back line when he's going to have to be closer to a deadly shooter twenty five twenty six feet away from the basket. That's one of the big differences too

with porzingis above the break. When you have a guy who likes taking corner threes, that's a pretty standard rotation. You sit kind of in the dunker spot, and you can step in and help if you want to be the low man that's tagging a roller or helping out a drive, but you can also close out to the

three point line. As soon as he's out above the break, not only is he further away from the basket, but it's just a non traditional help position because now when you're in helpside, you're kind of up at the elbow as opposed to down underneath the basket. Right. So, like porzingis just is a huge pain in the ass to deal with This is part of what it comes with dealing with Boston. Right, As I've said so many times, I think this is the most talented roster in the league.

They have four guys who make over thirty million. If they were all free agents tomorrow, they'd all make over thirty million, all five starters, including Derek White. Right, So, like this is just kind of like what happens when you play Boston. It's just everyone's really good and they put you in a lot of specific predicaments. But again, the pick and pop with porzingis is going to be an issue, and Porzingis spotting up when they look to

attack elsewhere is going to be an issue. Attacking Luca, Boston will go out of their way to do it. We saw this in the Pacers series, I think Game one, but it was one of the first two games of the series. There was a sequence where Tyres Haliburton was getting attacked relentlessly by Boston, and there was this basic sequence where Derek White had the ball, Tyres Aliburton was guarding him and they had Tyres chase over the top and Nie Smith was guarding Tatum, who was the screener.

Tatum's at the screen Tatum popped to the top of the key. Nie Smith tried to corral to corral Derek White on the drive, and because he had to crawl because Tyris Alibert was chasing and in trail position, Derek White just threw a simple kickback past to Tatum. Nie Smith tried to close out, but Tatum beat him off

the dribble and he got a dunk. So then on the very next possession, Nie Smith was like hesitant to help, and so when Haliburton chased over the top and he was in trail position, Nie Smith wasn't there, so Derek White just went all the way to the rim and got an easy layup. Boston was relentless going at Halliburton every single time in those first two games before he

left the series with a hamstring injury. I expect that to do the same with primarily Luca, but also with Kyrie, and it serves two functions right, one to get a favorable matchup or to get the defense in rotation, and two to try to fatigue Luca, who obviously has a lot in the way of offensive responsibility on the other end of the floor. Now Dallas will guard it differently. One of the things that Indiana did with Haliburton was they would have him chase over the top against the

ball handler. They would have him hedge and recover as the on ball or as the screen defender, so like if he was if they used Derek White to set a screen, they'd have Tyrese like step out in hedge and then try to get back into the passing lane. Remember he got a couple steals like that in Game one, just like slipping out of those hedges and jumping into the passing lane. But because Tyrese was fast, they like to have him do fast things to try to protect

himself right. Dallas will look to protect Luca in a very different way. Primarily with Luca, they'll just switch and then try to double him out of those particular situations. One of the problems for Dallas is they can't afford to just let Luca sit and play iso defense, even if he's okay at it, because they desperately need him to be great on the offensive end of the four. This is not like the Clippers series where Luca can defend on an island, but like both teams are struggling

to score because it's a defensive slug fest. And you're not worried about Paul George and James Harden killing you to some great extent, and you're okay winning a rock fight. Boston's too skilled offensively. I don't think it's gonna be that much of a rock fight. I think this is gonna be a pretty high scoring series. And so I think you need Luca to be awesome offensively, and you need to try to protect his legs as much as possible. So this is let's talk about a couple of specific

ways that Boston will look to attack. To look to attack Luca, Right, if Drew Holliday is the matchup, If lucas guarding Drew, we're gonna look at it through two different functions. Right, Drew on the ball, Drew as the screener. If Drew is on the ball, I think they'll just switch the action. Right. So, if it's Tatum that sets the screen, that up with Luca on Tatum right now, you're not going to be looking to have Luca sitting

guard Tatum on an island. You're probably going to double team him and rotate out of it because you want to save Luca's legs, right, And you can't do what you did against Minnesota, or you have Gafford and Lively just parked in the paint, so that even if Anthony Edwards beats Luke off the dribble, he's just driving into rim protection. That's not the luxury you have in this series. You have to contain on the perimeter, right, So my guess is they'll double and rotate out of it. What's

the problem there? Now Boston has you in rotation with five shooters on the floor, that can be a problem. If Drew is the screener, I think Luca will just switch out on the ball, right, So if if Drew's on the ball and Luca switches on to Tatum, they'll just pass it back to Tatum. But if if Luca is the screener, he's switched on to Jason Tatum, now he's just on the ball. It's the exact same predicament. And if you double team once again, the defense is

in rotation. So like, no matter what, I think, you're just gonna end up in this situation where attacking Luca is just going to get the defense in rotation and Boston's going to be playing driving kick out of that all series long. I'm going to talk about this more at the end, But most of this comes down to me for Dallas defensive rotations, they are going to be in rotation a lot, and so so much is going to come down to how well are they closing out,

how well are they chasing guys off the line. They've been pretty good. They were the best among the Conference finalists teams in defending teams on spot up possessions. It's something that they are good at it. They are athletic and they get out to the perimeter. They close out well. But that's going to be a huge factor in this particular series. To me, the Luca attacking mostly comes down

to the fatigue battle. Boston is going to be trying to wear Luca out and Dallas is going to be trying to make Luca's job easier so that he doesn't get worn out. Last week I want to look at is just Jason Tatum as the offensive initiator for Boston again. Josh Green got the assignment in the March first game and Tatum just torched him. He was too small to handle. Tatum just there was a sequence of possessions in the second quarter where he just literally looked to attack Josh

Green every single time down the floor. He went on like a nine to zero run by himself, just attacking Josh Green out of like the right elbow in straight iso and post up situations. Now, Darrek Jones Junior is not as strong as Josh Green, but he is longer and better at contesting those pull up jump shots. I actually think he's just a better matchup for Tatum in general in terms of having the length to actually contest those shots. My main concern for Dallas with Tatum is

actually just Tatum as a passer. Tatum's not shooting well in this postseason run. He's at zero point eight two points per pull up jumper. That's bad. Zero point nine points per catch and shoot jumper, that's bad. He's seven for thirty three on face up jumpers zero point five to two points per shot. That's really bad. So, like Tatum's jumper just isn't there right now, and if it comes back in a big way in the series, Boston's just gonna win, Like, forget about it. Boston's winning if

Tatum shoots well. But he hasn't been shooting well. That said, Dallas has entry points that Tatum can look to exploit to easily get the defense in rotation. Again, any action involving Tatum and Luca is likely to end with the defense in rotation for the same reasons that I just broke down for you guys. Right, Like, anytime Tatum has the ball and set and get brings Luke into the screen, Luca's probably gonna switch. They're gonna double. You'll be in rotation.

And if Luca, if Tatum sets the screen, switch on to Tatum and throw the ball back to Tatum. Now you're in rotation anyway. Right, So I think that's gonna happen pretty consistently. But Tatum has the size to make passes out of that. He is, in my opinion, one of the best passing forwards in the league. It's one of the most underrated traits about his game. He's incredible defensively,

and he's incredible as a playmaker. The primary concerns with Tatum involved his ability to consistently get to his spots and make shots right like is for him. It's his inconsistency as a score that has held him back. But his playmaking is something that I think is underrated, and

so I'm worried about for Dallas. Just Tatum functioning is like this glue guy offensively that just consistently runs a basic action the beginning of a possession to get the defense in rotation, and suddenly it's Derek White, Drew Holliday, Jalen Brown and Crisops porzingis running four on threes and just torching them. That's my main concern with Tatum. So again, this series to me comes down to rotations. For Dallas, they have to do a really good job flying around

and chasing guys off the three point line. It's doable, but it's going to be a tough job. I don't hate the other matchups Kyrie on Kyrie and PJ. Washington are both guys that can guard on the perimeter. I'm really just worried about them operating with an advantage. Like it's not PJ Washington guarding Jalen Brown with two guys dug down into driving lanes that I worry about. It's

Jalen Brown catching on the left wing with PJ. Washington closing out at him and him just getting easy buckets looking to attack quickly with that guy closing out right keys for both teams with Boston on offense for Boston be deliberate about attacking Luca. If they let him guard in an island, you'll wear him out. Not to mention, you'll get great shots, but you'll wear him out, which will hurt him on the offensive end. And most likely you're just going to get the defense in rotation. In

the March first game, they had thirty three assists. They had fourteen assists on their first seventeen made field goals. They did a great job in that March first game of getting the ball bouncing around, secondly pushing in transition. You guys will see some examples in film, but anytime they got a transition cross match, it just made it so that Dallas couldn't run their actual defensive game plan,

which ended up in problems. So like just running up and down the floor, forcing Dallas into cross matches will help them. And then again, get the ball reversal in every possession, Get the ball across the floor, make it across the midline and make these guys defend against the make these guys defend closing out rather than load it up. Remember Dallas is a load up defense. That's what they did to Minnesota, and they weren't very good at getting

the ball side to side. Boston has to get the ball side to side on the Dallas front protect Luca's legs. I would have him switch and then double out of

every single one of those situations. That way, he has no screen navigation and no hard close like just make his job super easy, because in my opinion, the best pathway for Dallas to win this series is for Luca to go absolutely super nova on offense and to shake Boston's foundation the way he shook Minnesota's foundation in Game five, and then to lead Boston into their bad offensive stretches. As we know, Boston can lose sight of the goal

and their execution on offense from time to time. Luca going super nova is a great way to play Boston into those tendencies. Lastly, I think they need to lean into Cleiba and Lively and then switch as much as possible. Again, more stagnation, less ball movement. Boston ceiling is higher. It

just is. That's a fact going into the series. We know Boston when they play their best, is better than anybody, right, but they're inconsistent in that level, and so you have to try to play them to the lower end of their variants and the best way to do that is when they're stagnant taking bad pull up jump shots and they're not popping around in rotation getting easy shots. And

so it's gonna be tough. But like, the one guy you have to protect is Luca, but I would switch everybody else and leave him on an island and just force Boston to score. And then it's gonna be about Boston being deliberate to attack Luca and keep the defense in rotation as much as possible. The volume