Hoops Tonight - Game 2 Breakdown: How Heat rebounded, adjustments Nuggets must make | NBA Finals

was really good. You can find that on our YouTube feed. This morning, I had a chance to rewatch the game in its entirety and to pour over the numbers a little bit, learned a ton of stuff. So what we're gonna do today. There were three adjustments that I recommended for Miami coming after Game one, and all three of them came to fruition in Game two. So I'd like to kind of dive into that and talk about how

it helped Miami steal the game. And then for our Chase three Points segment, we're gonna go over the three keys for Denver to regain control of the series as they go on the road to Miami. You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss anyhow announcements. And if for whatever reason, you guys missed one of these videos and you can't

get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under hoops tonight, all right, let's tucks some basketball. So for those of you guys who listen to our film breakdown after game one, and that's kind of our cadence during the NBA Finals, I'll do an instant reaction kind of just go over some of the surface level stuff, and then the next day, when I really have a chance to pour over the film,

we get into the weeds. And when we got into the weeds after game one, there were three keys that I wrote down for Miami. I said they had to avoid transition cross matches because that's what killed them in the post up area of the game. For Denver, giving Yokich and Aaron Gordon way too many good matchups without even having to run action just by running up the

floor and catching Miami in their transition cross matches. The second key that I pointed out is I wanted them to try Kevin Love in the starting lineup, just to give them a better chance to hang with Denver size. And then the third one was I wanted them to lean on their z own defense more because I thought that actually was their most effective defense in game one. So let's kind of go one by one through those

and talk about how they helped. So, first of all, transition cross matches, they just did a much better job sprinting back getting into the right matchup. Kevin Love being out there helps too, because now you have three guys that are effectively tougher guys to target in post up situations Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and bam Adebayo. With only having two targets versus three, it's fifty percent less opportunity even when you do get into cross matches to give

somebody a matchup to attack. But they just did a better job in general. The best way you could tell is in the stats. Aaron Gordon had six post ups for ten points in game one. He had zero post ups for zero points obviously in game two, so the Heat made the adjustment, they removed that from Denver's offense. Secondly, Kevin Love, he also had a bunch of different level and it wasn't different than I expected. I expected them to put Kevin Love on Jokic and put Bam in

a bio and help on Aaron Gordon. Instead, what they did is they actually put Kevin Love on Aaron Gordon and kept Bam at a bio on Jokic, basically just trying to take away those Aaron Gordon post ups and help them in rebound situations because Kevin Love is such a great rebounder. It helped in a bunch of different ways.

First of all, it allowed the Miami Heat to put Jimmy Butler on Jamal Murray, which was a huge part of Miami guarding the Murray Yokic two man games so well two on two without having to bring help keeping the other guys at a rhythm, which we'll get into much deeper here in a little bit. It also helped on the glass. Kevin Love had ten rebounds in twenty two minutes. That's obviously a huge factor in a series

like this against the team so big. We talked earlier in the transition cross match bit about how it gave the Nuggets fewer options for Aaron Gordon to attack. We called it matchup flexibility. Just more guys that can guard, more guys on the floor. Right. He also hit a couple of threes and in his twenty two minutes Kevin Love. In Kevin Love's twenty two minutes, the heat were plus eight team, So that was a really really smart adjustment

from Eric Spolstra. And then lastly, if you guys remember I said when I went over the film, the times when Denver's offense looked more most stilted, even when nikol Jokicic was out there was against the zone. As a matter of fact, they had just six points and ten possessions against the zone with Jokic on the floor in Game one. So I was hoping that Spoilsher would use it more, and he used it a lot in the

fourth quarter. So he only ran it three possessions total in the first three quarters, all Wala Jokic was on the bench, and then he broke it out for thirteen possessions in the fourth quarter, all wal Jokicic was on the floor. They only used it in dead ball situations and after made baskets and in the when they first started using the zone to start the fourth quarter, Denver got Miami got stops on five of their first seven possessions with the zone. During that span, they turned a

two point deficit into an eleven point lead. So Spoilister leaned heavy into the zone again. It ended up being what speed You're headed the biggest run of the game for Miami. Now on tape, there were two things that I want to point out that I think really makes Miami's zone work effectively against Denver. So, first of all, they're running a zone press up the floor as they're getting into the zone, right, So the top two guys are picking up the ball handler and just making them

work slowly up the floor. Why is that important that eats up shot clock? So if he dribbles up into the zone and they get into their set with nineteen eighteen on the shot clock, now they have multiple opportunities to attack the zone, multiple opportunities to get the zone to flip angle. It flips side so that maybe a guy will make a mistake, right, but with ball pressure from that zone press. Now, when they get to the point where they're ready to attack the zone, maybe there's

only twelve or thirteen seconds left on the shot clock. Now, all of a sudden, there's much less opportunity for Denver to start finding those entry points in the zone. It's a great way to disrupt rhythm that way. The second big thing, and I'm gonna encourage you guys to go to my Twitter feed and I shared a video you guys. No, I have trouble being able to use footage on this format just by virtue of the way the rights work, but I can use it pretty liberally on Twitter. So

go on Twitter. You'll see a specific clip that I posted that kind of demonstrates this particular concept. But what they're doing is they're taking again in a two three zone. And I hate calling it a two three zone because Spolsor's two three zone is so versatile and it moves around so much. It's more like an amoeba. And like with this little tweak that they made, which I'm about to describe, it almost looks like a one to three to one at times, but it is their two three zone.

Sposure just adjusts the responsibilities of the players based on the matchup, and everyone has responsibilities that extend far out of their area, and that's what makes it kind of like an amoeba rather than a traditional two three. But in a two three, you have two top guys, right, then you have two guys in the corners, and then you bam At a bio under the basket. One of the things that Miami was doing is they were having one of those top guys drop down and front Yokic

in the high post area. Right. So the way that most teams like to attack the zone is they want to get the ball to the middle of the floor, which forces bam Ad to bayout to step up, which forces one of the wing defenders to drop underneath the basket, which will leave an open corner three, or if he stays, you can cut behind and get easy layups. So everything comes down to getting the ball to the high post, right.

That's the most that's the easiest way to attack a zone that everyone has been talking about at every level of basketball. Right. But if you front that high post pass, then you can't make that post entry and you have to attack the zone a different way. Right. So one of the things that Miami's doing is they're dropping in the In the clip that I showed, Gabe Vincent actually fronts Jokic in the post. So he's supposed to be

a guard, he's not guarding up top. He's dropping down to the foul line and sitting in front of Yokic and taking away that pass. Kyle Lowry's in the other corner and rather than staying in the corner, he's coming up to Vincent's spot to take away that easy swing pass for a three. So if the swing passes aren't open for three and the Jokic pass isn't open, what is open, Well, the wide open skip pass on the weeks out of the floor. There's a shooter in the

corner of that' z open. But that's one an extremely difficult pass to make two. Miami can rotate out of it. The only way you're gonna beat Miami with that pass is if you get it on a rope to the corner. And so it's a really interesting little tweak by zone pressing to eat up shot clock and then by denying that high post entry pass he Jokics by fronting with the guard and then coming out of the corner to take away that easy swing pass, They've made it really

difficult for Denver to enter against Miami's zone. That's why I said it almost looks like a one to three to one at times because one of those guards is dropping back to the middle, and so it kind of takes that shape a little bit. But that's the genius of air exposure. In my opinion, he didn't give Denver a chance to solve that zone throughout the game. He only used it three possessions in the first three quarters.

He ate up all the shot clock with the press, then he took away the easiest entry points of the zone in that high post feed. That is what causes them to have the level of success against the zone that they have. So as we look back those three as we look back at those three adjustments, the transition cross matches, Kevin Love and more zone, Eric Spolser just did a really nice job after Game one of identifying the things they did well and replicating those things and

identifying the areas of weakness and addressing those things. I thought that was a huge part of how Miami ended up evening up this series. So before we get to our chase three point segment, I want to talk about this Eric Spolstra press presser comment that was going around

last night about making Yokic a score. So for those of you guys who missed it, I think it was Ramona Shelburn basically brings up the idea of making yokicch a score and it disrupting the rhythm, And in her question she literally brought up that it was overly simplistic. So I was kind of I didn't like Eric Spolser's reaction that much. She said, quote, first of all, I called it ridiculous, and then he said, quote, that's the untrained eye that says something like that. That's not how

they play. They have so many actions that can get you compromised. So for starters, I do understand why your exposure is frustrated by that. He's like doing all these incredibly complex tactical things to Denver. Right, we just broke down some of them. The pivotal run of the game in the fourth quarter was with a zone defense, right, And even the zone we talked about has all these different like wrinkles to it that make it so complicated.

So the simple idea of leaving Yokic on an island one on one and making him a score, I get why that concept frustrates sposure because it's not really what's happening. But it's just an abbreviated way to describe the overall strategy that Miami is going with. And like again, like it's just a timesaver. This show is a very unique format, like I'll sit here some days. Hell, we have shows where we go forty five minutes sometimes and most of

them are between twenty and thirty minutes. But even if we just look at that, I have twenty to thirty minutes to sit down with you guys and break down everything in excruciating detail, so I can go into the detailed version of making Yokica score. But most of these debate shows, and most of these articles and all these different things, it's all about being concise in the way

that you make your point. And so in a lot of these formats, people don't have the luxury of being able to take five minutes to break down what it means to leave to make Yokic a score. And so, while I understand spolstrous frustration, this is just the reality of the way sports media works. Sometimes you need to come up with these colloquialisms that effectively allow you to save time on the air. Right, It's like drop coverage, I say, the phrase drop coverage a lot when I'm

trying to save time. But even just within drop coverage, there's a million different ways to run a drop coverage, right, Like the guard has a half dozen different responsibilities that he can have. The big man has a half dozen different things that he can do, different spots that he can occupy. The help side defense can be different in a drop coverage from team to team. Just in this particular matchup, Denver's backside help and pick and roll is

way different than Miami's backside help and pick and roll. So, like I'll say, drop coverage is save time, but yeah, it's an oversimplification, you know. So, like I want to cut Ramona Shelburn and a lot of these people some slack like it. Like everything in basketball is super complicated when you dive into the minutia, but it's unrealistic to expect that kind of minusia to always be broken down in detail, especially in a lot of the modern formats

of these shows. And that's what I love about the format of this show is like I can take like there's no limit here. I can take as long as I need to break these things down, and I can actually get into the weeds a little bit, but I wanted to cut those people some slack. So let's talk

about what Miami is doing. So Spoilster's right, Denver's offense is a lot more complicated than just dumping the ball to Yo kitchen the post and sit hanging back and be like, okay, Yo, kitch your score now like that. That's not how it works. But when they do go to the post, they're defending him one on one, right like there was that Cody Zellert stretch where the end of the third quarter, or Yokic is just attacking him

again and again and again. And what they're doing on the help side situation is in position to help, but they're staying close enough to their shooters that they can rotate. It's more to just kind of shrink the floor on him.

But what they're not doing is hard doubling Jokic, That is giving up those passes that gets the defense in rotation, so guys like Michael Porter Junior and Kentavious Calbo Pope can get easy opportunities to knock down shots and attack closeouts, which is what allows them to build their rhythm and then extending further to the Jokic Murray action. Anytime they run a two man game, they're defending it two on two. They're expecting Jimmy Butler and bam Adebayo to stop that action.

The other three players are hanging in a position where they can rotate to their shooters. That is a deliberate tactical approach from Eric Spolstra to try to force Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, either in their two man games or in their ISOs or post ups, to score over the top, rather than taking those opportunities away with double teams or defending the pick and roll three on two, allowing for easy opportunities on the backside that gets everyone

else in rhythm. That's exactly what Eric Spolster is doing. Yes, it's a lot more complicated than just making Yokic a score, but that is what's happening, even in the zone. By virtue of by virtue of denying Jokic the ball up top, they are preventing those easy opportunities on the week side

to stop guys from getting in rhythm. Everything about what Eric Spolsure is doing against Denver's offense is about I know I can't stop Yokich I know I'm not gonna be able to disrupt his rhythm or make him feel uncomfortable. But Michael Porter Junior, Contavious Kalwell, Pope, those are guys like if I can rattle them a little bit, they'll start to miss to the open ones too, and that stuff works. KCP and Michael Porter Junior only generated three

wide open looks from three in last night's game. They went one for three on them. You guys might remember there was a play. It was against the zone in the late fourth quarter. It was right before Jamal Murray hit a three, But there was a play where Jamal Murray like shovels a pass back to KCP at the top of the key and he just breaks the three

long off the back room. And that's a play where it's like, if KCP gets some easier touches throughout the game, then he rises into that shot in rhythm and with confidence and he probably knocks it down. But instead he's been disrupted throughout the game with the way that Miami's been guarding, and so now even that wat that wide open shot that he gets doesn't go in because it's like he just didn't get that many of them and so he wasn't feeling comfortable and confident in the situations.

All that stuff. Again, we can argue about the semantics of what's happening, but it's very clear that Spolster is trying to force Maria and Yo gets to score over the top, rather than allowing the defense to get in rotation and create easier opportunities on the backside. Angie's list is now Angie your Home for everything Home. Angie doesn't just get your home projects done, Angie gets them done well.

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And just a few taps and the Angie App or clicks on the site, you can have Angie tackle your home service project from start to finish. Download the free Angi mobile app today or visit Angie dot com. That's a Ngi dot com. All right, so let's get to our chase three point segment. So last week, like I said, we focused on adjustments that Miami could make to ease

even the series. In our three point segment today, they were going to focus on three adjustments or specific areas that Denver needs to be good at in order to have a chance to gain back control of the series as we head to Miami. So number one, the Denver Nuggets have to find a way to get easier opportunities

for KCP and Michael Porter Junior in their offense. Kind of expounding on that point that we just made so so far through through two games, MPJ and Michael MPJ and KCP are averaging sixteen points per game combined in the series. During the regular season they averaged twenty eight points combined. Michael Porter Junior is shooting twenty nine percent in the series and KCP is shooting thirty three percent in the series. So the rhythm disruption stuff from Spolstra

is really working. And I'm not going to dive into the dynamic again because we just did so a couple of adjustments they can make. One they need to get out and transition more. They did have a better transition game in game two than they did in game one. They had single digit transition points in game one. They had twenty one points in transition in game two, although most of that took place in that second court to

run when Yokic was off the floor. So there's always gonna those are those transition opportunities are always gonna be much easier to score than Miami set defense with how sophisticated they are in the half court. So you got to hunt those possessions every time you get an opportunity, which you have to defend in order to generate those transition opportunities. We're not gonna talk about the the Nuggets defense right now, but that was arguably the biggest thing

that went wrong for them last night. We are going to get to that here in just a minute. Run more two man game with Michael Porter Junior in KCP to keep them in rhythms. So they only ran seven possessions last night where they ran dh o's or pick and rolls with MPJ or Contavious Cabbo Pope running the action with Jokic as the screener. That's not very often, right, and they'll run the vast majority of their two man game possessions with Jamal Murray with the ball in his hands.

And I get that, Jamal Murray is your star. You have to do that right. But Jamal Murray's finds himself in the tougher matchup here. He's being guarded by Jimmy Butler, and Jimmy Butler's doing a really good job up until those last few garbage time threes that Jamal Murray hit at the late fourth quarter. Jimmy kind of locked his ass up. Right Now, that doesn't mean you stop running

that action. You need to keep running that action. You need to keep Jamal Murray in rhythm as best as you can, but I would toss CACP and Michael Porter Junior several more of those a game just to keep the ball in their hands more to help them get into a rhythm. There's two like it helps them two ways. It helps them keep their rhythm, but also they're being

guarded by lesser defenders. Case again, if you're putting Jimmy Butler on Jamal Murray, that means it's gonna be a Gabe Vincent or a Max Struce that is guarding or a Caleb Martin that's guarding one of those guys. In those situations, they might be able to get a better look against them, even though they're not as talented as

Jamal Murray is. And then again, when you do get those catch and shoot threes for Michael Porter Junior and CACP late in the game, when you are spamming Jamal Murray, Nikola yok jactions more likely to make them at that point because they've had more touches throughout the game. So I think that's a big way that they can help keep those guys in rhythm. Just hunt transition opportunities and run more. Two main game with KCP and Michael Porter

Junior having the ball in their hands. Number two, Denver has to figure out a way to score against Miami's zone effectively. So we talked about the zone run earlier. Right, the Miami gets five stops and seven possessions. They turned a two point deficit into an eleven point lead. Now, they did score on four of their last six possessions against Miami's zone, which is what kind of bumped up the points per possession numbers. But I thought it was

fool's goal. The first one, Nikola Jokic was screening the top guy and Jamal Murray got downhill and Jimmy Butler is standing there waiting for Jamal Murray and Jimmy just let him go right by him, and Jamal Murray ended up engaging Bam dropping it off to Jokisch and Yokic made a little floater like Jimmy has a pretty good chance to contain that it was just a defensive mistake, right, Like, that's not something you can replicate. The second one was

an Aaron Gordon three above the break. So you know how we were talking about coming out of the corners to take away those easy swing pass threes while in this possession, KCP was in the corner, Aaron Gordon was on the wing above the break. Duncan Robinson stayed in the corner again probably part of Eric Spolstra's you know, decision making process, like I'd rather give up an above the break three to Aaron Gordon than CACP in the

corner right, So Duncan Robins stayed glued. They threw the pass to Aaron Gordon, he was wide open above the break on the left wing, and he made that three again, a three that Miami's gonna live with. And then the last two buckets that they got against the zone were both off offensive rebounds, so Miami actually got stops, they just couldn't finish the possession. So again, they scored on four of their last six possessions against the zone. But there was a lot of stuff in there that wasn't

necessarily good execution on Denver's part. It was just guys making plays and Miami making some mistakes. So what are the adjustments that Denver can make to help score against Miami's zone. So when they're we talked about earlier, when

you're leaving the weakside corner open. The problem is is that pass is really difficult to make, and you've got to make it on a rope or there's no chance that guy's gonna have enough time to take and make that shot, right, So that's a little bit unrealistic just to expect like, oh, we got to make the skip pass a bunch of times, Like that's not gonna happen. So a couple things they can do to create an easier passing angle to get an easy shot in that situation.

First of all, bring the corner guy up to screen for the shooter on the wing right. So if the guy in the zone in the corner, the defender in the zone in the corner is coming up to take away that easy swing pass and the corner guy's open, you just bring that corner guy up to screen that guy so that you can make the swing pass to an open shooter. Now it's in much easier passing angle.

It's one pass away versus a skip pass, and it's in much more difficult rotation right, Like if you make that skip pass to the corner, it's bam at a bio that's coming out from the basket to dissuade the shot. While Kyle Lowry relocates back down there and recovers and

sends Bam back right. But if Kyle Lowry's getting picked and there's a shooter over there and you make the swing pass, he's above the break, So Kyle's trapped on the pick and BAM now has to rotate not to the short corner but all the way above the break, which is a rotation he literally can't make in time for that kind of shot. So using the week side corner to screen the top guy in the zone to get a swing pass for three. The other big one

is just beat drive the zone, beat somebody off the dribble. Again, like in the zone defense, they're not double teaming you, they're just players are in spots on the floor right, And so yeah, you're not gonna beat your man off the dribble and just get slashing layups because BAM's waiting there. But if you beat your man off the dribble, you engage a different defender in the zone while putting your defender out of position to do anything. That's where you

can get opportunities for guys cutting right. So there was a play. There's a play that I posted on Twitter that I want you guys to check out so go to my Twitter feed again. And on this play, Caleb Martin is the top guy in the zone and he's guarding Jamal Murray way up above the break on the left side of the floor, and Jamal just beats him off the dribble and when he does, Duncan Robinson has to step up out of the corner. When he does,

he leaves Jeff Green open. So Jamal makes a bounce past to Jeff Green in the short corner, who catches it. When he catches that, bam Anebayo has to step over to guard Jeff Green. And on this play, Christian Brown is in the weakside corner, cuts out of the corner and is standing right under the basket and he's wide open. Jeff Green misses him, just doesn't see him. Kyle lower is laid on his rotation coming down, He's wide open. Jeff Green makes that pass. It's an easy layup. But

so Denver blew that possession. But that's a great example of a way to attack the zone. Again. If you can beat your man off the dribble, you're going to engage a different defender, which is going to start a chain reaction that's gonna get you an open shot. So again,

you don't have to beat the zone by passing. Obviously, ideally you want to beat the zone by passing, but with the way that Miami's guarding, one of the easiest ways for them to compromise the zone is just give the ball to somebody who can beat somebody off the dribble and just attack that man. Then you have an opportunity to generate easier shots on the backside. The other

one attack the offensive glass with energy and force. So again, like I talked about it earlier, the four possessions out of six that they scored, you know, two of them were offensive rebounds. But that's something that can happen in zone. So the reason why offensive rebounding is easier against the zone is no one's matched up. So in a man of man situation, shot goes up. Everyone's got someone they're guarding,

so they turn and they box out right. But against the zone, there's a lot of times where people aren't guarding anybody. They're guarding an area right, and so often there will be an area on the floor where let's just say Duncan Robinson is on the left wing and he's got two people in his zone, area, well, he can't box them both out, and so there's often a lot of opportunities for free runs to the offensive glass

against the zone. And so that's another way that they can help score against the zone is just when they're in that situation, attack the offensive glas as a bunch, and then lastly defend. Miami only ran their zone and dead ball situations on and off of Maine baskets in the fourth quarter. If you get a stop, you get

to go against their man defense. And again, the reason why they do that is because a lot of times those semi transition push pushes, it's really it takes more time to set up your zone than it does to set up a man to man. So in that specific situation, you have an opportunity to go against their man just by getting stops, which brings us to number three. Can Denver defend at a championship level three more times? Miami

absolutely sliced and diced Denver in this game offensively. If I had to attribute one single factor to Denver for this loss, it would be the defensive performance of Nikola jokicch Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Junior. All three of those guys were atrocious on that end of the floor.

In this game, Miami scored an astonishing one point four to seven, so almost a point and a half purpose in pick and roll in thirty six possessions like that's off the charge good, You're not winning another game in this series if you defend like that. That's how bad it was now on tape. It was extremely poor execution. There were two early pull up jumpers that gave Vincent got against Jamal Murray because Jamal Murray just didn't feel

like guarding. The first one was a step back where Jamal Murray was just kind of didn't even make an attempt to contest the shot. The second one, gay Vincent was driving past him and kind of gave him a little bit of an off arm to get to the middle of the floor, and Jamal just turned around to complain at the refs about the off arm instead of guarding the shot. So Gay Vincent walks into a shot. They were really watching the Max Druce ghost screens. That's

how Max Struce got going. I think he hit four of his first seven threes, so like there would be a play where gave Vincent and Max Strews gave Vincent as the ball. Max s Truce just sets of ghost screen and runs to the corner, and Michael Porter Junior and KCP just both stay with Gabe Vincent and now Max Streu's just wide open in the corner, like of course he's gonna get his rhythm that way. And then there was like another lazy Jamal Murray play where Aaron

Gordon is guarding Jimmy Butler. Max Druce is at the top of the key. Struce runs a ghost screen to the corner. Jamal Murray just kind of jogs over to Aaron Gordon and stops and then just points over like okay, Aaron Gordon, you guard Max Truce. Now it's not even a screen, and Aaron Gordon's like okay, and then like runs over, but he's too late, and the shot goes in just laziness, and then mostly just in pick and roll.

The big thing that I noticed in those thirty six possessions was just giving up the pocket pass too easily. So again drop coverage, like we talked about earlier, and I talked about this a little bit last night with Colin. Like when I say, when I say, like they remind me of the Patriots with doing your job. Like every coverage works when the guys do their job. It's just coverages fall apart on execution, not based on the tactical approach.

That's why, like a lot of times when we talk about stubborn coaches who won't make an adjustment, often times if you ask them, like, hey, why wouldn't you make this adjustment, They'll just tell you the coverage wasn't the problem, it was the execution. So why would I change the coverage when if they don't execute the new coverage then we're in the same situation. Now, what I would argue is you got to find a coverage that your team can execute. But like execution is what breaks down coverages.

And again, and this is where Jamal Murray was. Jamal Murray in particular was the biggest week point in Denver's defense last night, and then I'd say Yokich was probably the second biggest week point. But Jamal Murray dying on screens makes it so that that ball handler is coming off of those ball screens free and clear. When he's coming off free and clear, that forces Jokic to come higher out of his drop. When Jokic comes higher out

of his drop, that opens up the pocket pass. When the pocket passes open and it's that easy, one of two things is gonna happen. You're either gonna hit Bam in a bio and he's gonna go up and dunk it with two hands on Michael Porter Junior plus the foul, or the defender is going to step over to defend the action three and two, and that's you're gonna get all the openings on the weak side as the defenses

in rotation, so fundamentally one piece falling apart. Jamal Murray dying on screens super easy breaks down the entire coverage. And if you guys remember before the series, I actually said, I said, one of the ways that I see Miami winning games in the series. And again, like I said, a sweep is on the table, but I picked Miami. I picked Denver in six. I picked Denver in six because Miami just does this. They just find a way

to win games. They just do. And one of the ways that I thought they would win games in this series.

If you guys remember I said two things. I said, Jimmy Butler matchup attacking and guess what he was up over a point per possession and post ups ISOs and pick and roll ball handler possessions last night and then two elite week side shot making because Denver more often than not has to defend pick and roll three on two because Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic struggle to defend ball screens, so they need help and Miami's got knockdown shooters on the way. That's like the fundamental concept of

last night's game. Miami defends all the two man game actions two on two, keeps their defense out of rotation, takes away easy opportunities on the weak side. Denver constantly has to guard those actions three on two. Now, their defense is in rotation constantly and they're getting wide open shots for shooters. That's how you end up with one point four to seven points per possession in pick and roll and so again, like when that coverage falls apart,

that's what keeps your defense in rotation. So simply put Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Junior, they all have to defend at a much higher level. Jamal Murray has to stay attached as he's running over screens so that Jokic can drop further back. When Yokic is in his drop he has to be more active with his hands to make that pocket pass harder. He's got to defend Bam better in those situations. And then Michael Porter Jr. That guy in Game one that was flying around blocking shots,

making plays that do didn't exist in game two. His defensive effort was at an entirely different lower level. And so Michael Porter Junior has to also bring that level of effort in intensity as a help defender. That will help them generate more transition opportunities right to help MPG and CACP get going. It will help them avoid Miami's zone because Miami won't set their zone unless they get

a made basket. And it will prevent Mike Malone from having to do what he did at the end of the game, which is bring Bruce Brown into the game as a defensive presence, which lessens the amount of shooting that you have on the floor. So fundamentally, defense is what beat Denver last night, and that's gonna be what Michael Malone is preaching NonStop over the next two days. And that's the biggest adjustment that I expect from Miami

going forward. Now, before we get move on, I do want to talk about this shooting thing for a second, because once again, and Denver's just Denver fans are just the latest group to start pleading this case. But it's, oh my god, Miami is this is just outliers shooting. I can't believe this. They're making everything. This is historically unprecedented,

off the charts lucky shot making. And you guys know how I feel about that, Like, I hate, hate the way that we cover shooting in this league, Like it's just walking up to a slot machine, putting in a twenty dollars bill and hitting a button and just praying to God that you get coins at the end of the day. Like that's that's not how this works. It's

a basketball game. Everything is intricately connected. In Game one, Denver was flying around defensively and played with a ton more force, so as a result, all of Miami's looks were more rushed, more fatigued. In this particular game, Denver didn't play with any force relative to what they did in Game one, So as a result, now Maxtrus is getting his rhythm in wide open catch and shoot situations

on ghost screens right. In general, the lack of force that Denver played with makes it so that Miami is less fatigued, less rushed, and in better rhythm when they're taking those shots. And then guess what happens when you start getting easy looks. You feel confident, you feel comfortable, you're in rhythm. Now, guess what that catch and shoot three that's contested also goes in because you're feeling great about yourself and you're in a great rhythm. Again, contested

is way different than bothered. Those are two completely different concepts. If I put my hand up on a shot and the shooter is in rhythm and he's going to his muscle memory, he doesn't even see my hand, you know how. I know I've done that a million times. Okay, when you can test a shot and you're in rhythm, it just doesn't bother you. Now, when you bother a shot, that means you've made him feel uncomfortable throughout the game. You're attached to his body, you're disrupting his base. Now

that entire muscle memory gets disrupted. Now it doesn't even need to be a contest. You don't even have to bother him up top if you bother him down low. So like again, like as we go into these things, it's so easy to look at the analytics and be like, oh, as we look at the shot quality based on the nearest defender, like, Miami actually outperformed their shot quality by x per and that means Denver if they played this

exact same game again, would have won. No, they play that exact same game again, Denver loses again because Miami is comfortable again, Miami makes shots again and then makes the tough shots again. It is the lamest loser mentality form of basketball analysis that I see out there, and I hope we stop it because at the end of the day, we are not slot machines. We are basketball players, and we make shots based on all of the things

that take place in a basketball game. There is a tiny bit of variants, there is a tiny bit of luck, but the vast majority of it comes down to the things that are happening in the basketball game. All right, I'm off my soap bucks. My three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited Unlimited. One point five

percent cash back is just the beginning. Earn three percent on dining at restaurants, including takeout and eligible delivery services, three percent on drug store purchases, five percent on travel purchased through Chase Ultimate Rewards and one point five percent on all other purchase is how do you cash back? So Miami has changed the dynamic of the series a little bit. Denver seems to have lost a little bit

of their confidence. A couple of their role players are out of rhythm, and Miami has two defensive looks that are causing Denver problems. Then that's Jimmy and Bam on the Murray Jokic two man game and their zone defense. So my prediction as of right now, for whatever that's worth, And you guys know, I hate making predictions. I'd much rather just react to the games. But if I had the guess right now, I think Denver wins Game three, in Miami wins Game four, and then we come back

to Denver at two to two. But again, who the hell knows what's gonna happen. I share as hell don't, and I'm just excited to break it all down with you guys. So tomorrow, I believe, at two pm Pacific Standard time, I'm doing a video with Live moods our resident Nuggets fan here at the volume, So keep an eye on that in the YouTube feed. In the late afternoon, tomorrow and then I will be back as usual on Wednesday night, after the final buzzer of Game three with mister Colin Coward. The volume