Hoops Tonight - 76ers-Knicks Predictions: Why Embiid & Sixers offense will overpower New York

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of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas. Twenty one plus age varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See DKG dot co slash b ball for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to tonight. You're at the volume hay Thursday. Everybody hopefull of you. Guys are having an incredible week. Got another series preview for you today, the Philadelphia seventy six ers and the

New York Nicks. Alert. I went into this film session this morning thinking I was gonna pick one team, and then I ended up picking the other team. After watching the film, I'm excited to dive into it from the perspective of both teams. After that, I've got a little bit of a film session. We've got twenty clips. We're going to go through nineteen clips. Excuse me that we're

going to go through from this particular matchup. So for you guys listening on the podcast feed, if you want to see some film representations of the things that I'm talking about, you're going to want to head over there. There are some specific takes that I have about how the Sixers should defend the Knicks that I think seeing some footage will help you guys kind of get a better feel for. And then lastly, at the end of the day to day, we're going to do a little

bit of mail bag. I'm going to start by talking about Team USA and their twelve man roster that they're taking to the Olympics this summer. And then after that, I've got four mail bag questions that go around the rest of the league. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to a brand new YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore json lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements or film threads that I

do from time to time. Don't forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops tonight. And then, last but not least, keep dropping mail bag questions and those YouTube comments about once a week over the course of the rest of the postseason, I'll be hitting mail bags. Obviously, we're going to do them more over the other portions of the year, but I still plan on doing them all right, Let's talk some basketball. So the Knicks won

the season series three to one. Embiid only played in one of the games, though it was a game the Knicks won by thirty six points back in January, a really hot shooting night from the New York Knicks and that one. The Knicks have a one to twelve offensive rating in this matchup, but the Sixers have a ninety three offensive rating in this matchup. The Knicks have also dominated the glass, even in the game that Embiid has played.

When Embiid's on the floor this year, they're generally a pretty good rebounding team, but they've been really bad without him on the floor, and they can struggle in some specific lineups, and that's obviously going to be a key, key kind of trend to keep an eye on in this series. On the gambling front, Super Close Draftking has this one at Sixers minus one fifteen, so very slight favorite for the Sixers. Let's start with the New York

Knicks on offense. So my guess is they're going to start the series based on the starting lineup that they went with in the heat game. My guess is they're going to start the series with Kelly Ubray on Jalen Brunson. We're gonna talk about this in more detail in a minute, but that Brunson matchup gets a little tricky, and I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a different Philly starting lineup, either to start the series or down the line.

But based on Miami, they went with Kelly Ober Junior, a Tyrese Maxi, Kyle Lowry, Tobias Harris, and Joel Embiid. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a guy like Nick Batoomb slid it in for someone like Kyle Lowry. But we'll see what that ends up looking like as the series progresses. But if they do stick with their starting lineup that they used against Miami, I expect Kelly Ubray Junior to get the Jalen Brunson assignment, and he has gotten it for entire games this year. I think

we'll see Tyrese Maxey on Dante Defangenzo Dante DiVincenzo. Since the Julius Randall injury is attempting like twelve three is a game and is flying around off of screens and you're gonna need some speed to deal with that. So I think they're gonna go with Tyrese Maxey. There we have. I think we're gonna get Kyle Lowry on Josh hart I think we'll get Tobias Harris on og and Andobi and then obviously Joel Embiid on Isaiah Hartenstein. So let's start with the Brunson matchup, so we know what the

back end of the coverage is gonna look like. It's gonna be Joel Embiid in a deep drop coverage that goes without saying he's gonna try to kind of split that difference between getting up high enough to bother some of those floaters and short jump shots that Brunson takes while also protecting the rim. And then we also know that in that action, Hartenstein is primarily looking to kind of roll towards the front of the rim, so we can like make that little pop shot in the lane.

And so those little short range shot making situations for Brunson and Hartenstein are gonna be key Embiid getting good contests. There are gonna be key as well. So on film, I actually didn't really like the Kelly ubre reps. I thought that he used his length to kind of contain Brunton relatively well, but I didn't think he did enough in terms of ball pressure or actually attacking from behind

in back pressure situations to make Jalen Brunson uncomfortable. Now that like in the lone Philadelphia win that they had this year, Ubray was on him for the most part and Brunson went six for twenty two, but I thought it was more of a team wide thing. I didn't think Kelly Ubray had much impact on the shot results for Jalen Brunson there. Now, in the one game that Joel Embiide played, it was actually Nick Patum who guarded

Jalen Brunson from the opening tip. And even though Brunson had a better game, and even though the Knicks one, I actually thought Nick Patum did a really nice job relentless pursuit through all their screening actions. He has the length to bother and pester Jalen Brunson from behind, which is gonna be key because it's like a bracket. Every time we talk about pick and rollages, it's a bracket. When you try to defend two on two, it's back

pressure and its rim protection. And like again, when you've got em beat on the one end, the better your back pressure is, the more you can funnel him into him and kind of limit those opportunities. And so you guys will see when we get to the tape here in a few minutes, when we get to the film session. But I'm gonna show you guys some examples. I think Nick Batoum is up to this challenge, and I think

he's the guy that should get that look. And so I wouldn't be surprised if in Game one they just put Batum in for Kyle Lowry and made that sort of move, But don't be surprised if it's something where like over the course of Game one, Nick Patum has some good reps on Jalen Brunson, and then they make that sort of adjustment later on in this series. So my guess is they start with Ubray. But I think the best version of the Sixers defense against New York

is Batom on the ball. A good example, honestly, if you don't want to wait for the film is just look at what the job he did on Tyler Harrow last night. I thought he did a really nice job chasing him over the top. Light had a huge which block on a Tyler Harrow pull up jump shot late in the game. That's kind of like something that I think that he's especially gifted with, especially with pull up

shooters in ball screens. Obviously, supreme athletic speed is something that he's gonna struggle with, but Jalen Brunson and Tyler Harrow are not guys that have supreme athletic speed, and

I think that's something that he demonstrated last night. I like the other thing too that it kind of mitigates this to a certain extent, is I don't like the Sixers will do a good amount of switching from two through four, and the Knicks are pretty good about using little brush screens and guard guard screens to get different guys switched on to Jalen Brunson before they run the action. But this is another reason why I like Batoom. He doesn't die on screens, he fights over the top. He

uses that length. I think you can use that as a weapon in this series. Again, I mentioned Maxy on Devincenzo mainly to lock and trail for speed. The other thing there too is the way that the Knicks attacked this over the course of the regular season, as they just ran Jalen Brunson Dante DiVincenzo two man game, and so when they did, they would get Tyrese Maxey switched on to Jalen Brunson, and then Jalen Brunson would just

go to work. You guys will see a sequence where he scored on Tyrese Maxi and then the very next possession they ran it again and they ended up having to double team and fortunately Jalen Brunson missed the read, but they left a wide open Dante DiVincenzo on that play.

So like that's the one of the downsides there is they're going to try to maybe try to counter the Joel embiid issue or excuse me, the the ball screen issue with dealing with Joel Embid at the rim by just running guard guard actions and trying to target Tyrese Maxi and like ghost screens and screening for switches and things along those lines. The Sixers did counter that by switching and doubling, but we'll see if they can maybe

opt for something more like a hedge and recover. So instead of switching or having to double, just have Tyree's kind of show high. He has the speed to to get a decent close out on Dante. All he needs to do is just kind of throw a hedge that's enough to kind of flatten out Jalen Brunson's driving lane and you might have an opportunity to get back. My guess is we'll get Kyle Lowry on Josh Hart again.

The main thing there is just you want Kyle Lowry roaming around in help situations, taking charges, digging in on drives. Josh Hart is a zero point eighty five points per possession spot up player, so you can get away with

late closeouts there. Now, if Batoom comes in for Lowry, my guess is they'll slot Kelly Ubray down onto og and Andobi, and then they'll move Tobias Harris onto josh Hart, and then he'll be in that spot where he needs to kind of roam around and be helping other main responsibility in that spot is just keeping josh Hart off the offensive glass. Josh Hart is fifth in total offensive rebounds among guards this season, and obviously it's major part

of New York's attack. They try to manufacture as money as many points as possible on the margins through second chance point and attacking and transition and all that kind of stuff. And so those are going to be keys defensively for the Sixers. Tobias Harris on Ognnobe mainly just

because it's gonna be about dealing with bully ball. Ojannobi when he does look to attack, is typically looking to use his size and strength, and I think Tobias Harris is best equipped out of those forwards to handle that type of physical aggression. And again that's why I put Kelly Ubre there if you do move Batoom into the lineup,

because Kelly can do a decent job as well. Now here's the thing, O Jannobi will run a little bit of action, but for the most part, the primary concern with ojan and obis athlete plays, running the lane, in transition, attacking closeouts, cutting to the basket, attacking the offensive glass. The vast majority of shot attempts that Annobe gets are in those types of situations. So it's mainly about Tobias Harris just kind of winning some of those hustle battles

to mitigate OG's production. Now, if with Joel and beat to Isaiah Hartenstein. The big thing for Joel there is going to be about why out for the balance between helping on everything but also making sure you keep an eye on Isaiah Hartenstein. So what Joel will do, and you'll see in the footage he's just trolling everything around the paint and he's kind of ignoring Isaiah Hartenstein when he has the ball in the middle of the floor. Even when he has the ball and he's looking for

cutters or guys coming off screening actions. Embiid's just sitting back way at the basket. But Hartenstein has the ability to just put the ball on the floor in quickly attack. He loves to quickly attack to that left hand side

and get all the way to the rim. He can make little pop shots in the lane as well, So it's going to be about towing that line and just being careful for Joel Embiid in terms of helping off things at the paint, but also making sure that he's attentive to the random attacks that Isai Hartenstein can go on Key's for both teams again for the Sixers, defending Brunson, applying that back pressure and defending and drop just close the bracket, make him feel as uncomfortable as possible and

limit his efficiency, and then controlling the defensive glass. The Knicks are the best offensive rebounding team in the league, second best second chance points team in the league. Now, the Sixers statistically have been a bad rebounding team this year, but up until the Embiid injury, they wore a top ten defensive rebounding team, So I do think that they should be able to hold up better than they have

in this matchup throughout the course of this series. But again, in the one game embid did play in the regular season, they struggled. That's a trend they're gonna have to flip to have any chance on the Knicks front. Got to get Brunson better matchups whenever possible, so guard guard screens, brush screens and transition stuff like that, trying to get different defenders that have less length and quickness on him before he gets into his ball screens. And then who's

going to provide secondary offense. For the most part after the Julius Randall injury, it's been Dante DiVincenzo mainly just through high volume three point shooting. But they don't really have a guy on the roster who can consistently run action and consistently generate higher quality shots outside of Brunson, and that's an issue. And so like having one of those guys just kind of step up. I don't know if that's Ogn Andobi. I don't know if that ends

up being Dante DiVincenzo. Duce McBride's a guy who has him off the dribble pop. Maybe that ends up being a direction they lean into more. But they're gonna need somebody to kind of step up, and then they need to manufacture as many points as possible on the margin, so again second chance points on the offensive glass. Like we mentioned, forcing turnovers and getting out in transition sixers with the ball. My guess is we'll get Dante Devincenzo

on Tyres Maxey. We might see some Ogn and Obi on Tyras Maxy, but my guess is Dante Devincenzo will start Jalen Brunson on Kyle Lowry or Batoom. Obviously, if he ends up starting, I think you tuck Jalen Brunson

on him. Josh Hart will most likely be guarding Kelly Ubray Junior, and I think you put Ogn Andobi on Tobias Harris, and the main reasoning there is, like Tobias Harris is like the ford that is more likely to try to make a play with the ball in his hands, Like he's the guy that will run a little bit of action, look to score in the post, look to just attack semi transition off the balance, like That's where I think og Anobi's ability to slide his feet and

absorb contact in like kind of withstand so much Bias Harris's bullyball. I think that's advantageous. And then obviously I think we're gonna get Isaa Hartenstein on Joel embiid. So, first question is the defending of Tyrese MAXI. Now here's the thing. In the film, tyres doesn't have much trouble getting to his spots. He's too fast for all the Knicks Gards. That doesn't say much. He's too fast for

basically every player in the league. The only guy that I think has done a good job kind of hanging with him from a quickness standpoint is Deuce McBride, And I just don't think he's gonna play enough necessarily for it to matter. Maybe he does, we'll see, Maybe that ends up being a match up they lean into more, but for the most part, it's an athletic mismatch there. But even though Tyree's has them on their heels a lot, Maxi has a weakness and that's his pull up jump shooting.

He shoots forty four percent on catch and shoot jumpers, but he shoots only thirty four percent on pull up jump shots. That actually drops from one point three points per shot attempt to zero point nine points per shot attempt, so almost a forty percent dip in efficiency, actually more than a forty percent dip in efficiency when he takes a dribble before he takes the shot, so you'll see on ball screens they're still chasing him over the top

and trying to funnel him into traffic. But in like any sort of situation where Tyrese is kind of bearing down on a guy off the dribble, you'll see them get back on their heels and they're kind of just willing to give a late contest because Tyreese just hasn't been as good at making that shot as he has been any sort of catch and shoot type of shot.

But again that that matchup is gonna be key because he does a lot of shooting off the move where he won't dribble, it's just come off the corner, come off of like a wide pin down into a dribble handoff from Mbiat and he'll just rise and fire off the catch and so you're gonna have to lock and trail, have to stay attached. But that's definitely gonna be a big advantage. Like he can beat people off the dribble. And you saw last night in that Miami Heat game.

Like once Tyree's kind of figures out where his driving angles are, he just starts kind of breaking people down and you get into rotation, and that's how you get Joel Embiid wide open at the top of the key. That's how you get Joel Embid offensive rebound opportunities and open looks for Nick Patoum and other guys. Is when you get compromised at the point of attack. And that's something that Tyres Maxie can do now again in the

starting configuration. Like I said, I want ogn and Obi on Tobias Harris to contain any sort of off the dribble moves he makes with Isaiah Hartenstein on Embiid. You'll see some examples in the film when EMBII tries to make a move, he can power through Hartenstein, but Hartenstein can absorb the contact long enough to kind of slow down that advance. That's where it becomes about shrinking the floor.

And you'll see examples in the film when the Knicks don't shrink the floor, where Embiid just kind of goes through Hartenstein and gets all the way there. But when they do shrink the floor, Hartenstein will absorb the blow. It'll slow and beat down enough and guys can come around and get late contests, and you'll see some blocks on Embiid on places where Hartenstein absorbed that initial bit of contact. But like, I think he's capable of it. But it's a team wide job and then we're gonna

talk about it later. But it's gonna be about mixing up. The other thing too, is just in those face up situations, shrinking the space without fouling. Embiad has a tendency to go cold, especially with that shot, especially in the postseason, but he can't let him get too comfortable there because that's kind of his bread and butter, and once he gets confident, he's gonna knock him down. And so shrinking that space without fouling is going to be important keys

for both teams on the knickt front. Mixing up coverages with Embiid, leave him in single coverage, sometimes late help from the baseline, late help from the middle, early double teams. Like I said, double teams. After he puts the ball on the floor, I throw in some zone in there. I mean, you guys saw what happened with Miami last night.

A little bit of zone, especially if they can kind of if Tom Thibodeau can kind of replicate some of Spolstra's bal denial in there where it's like it's a zone, but they're constantly denying Embiid wherever he's at on the floor. That's another way that they can try to mix things up. But like keep embad off balance, don't let him solve your defensive coverage. And then lastly, containing Tyres Maxy's dribble penetrat as much as possible. On the Sixers front, ironically,

I think it's all about jump shooting. Teams are going to concede pull up jump shots to Tyres Maxi in like ISO situations. Joel Embiid, like we talked about earlier, as face up jumper. That's such an important part of his offensive game at this point and has been basically the primary genesis of his playoff downfalls over the years. And then the role players again, like look at last

last night. It's like when guys are missing, they get they get hesitant, they get tentative, they lose their confidence. All of a sudden, Nick Patomb starts making threes, and the lid just comes off the rim. Now Buddy Yields hitting threes. Now Joel Embiad's hitting threes, and everything just kind of breaks open for them. And so again, jump shooting is gonna be key Maxie off the dribble, Embiid in face up situations, role players and catch and shoot situations,

they have to make shots. So prediction. I've gone back and forth about this series a bunch of times. I came in thinking it was going to be the Knicks. Then I started to think it was going to be the Sixers. Then I was kind of on the fence, and I landed on the Philadelphia seventy six Ers. Here are the key reasons I'm really worried about New York's ability to score in the half court over the course

of this series. I think they're gonna constantly have a six to eight athletic wing on Jalen Brunson, funneling him towards Embiid while helping from behind. I think there are enough guys on the floor that they can get late closeouts too, that they're gonna be able to kind of pack the paint on him a little bit. I really think that when you kind of stack up shot creation

in this series. As much as I respect Brunson and you guys know I do, and obviously I believe that if you get him a secondary shot creator, that this Knicks team is a bona fide championship contender, like top tier championship contender. That's how good I think this team can be. But it's just a lot to ask when you basically have your secondary offensive option is just Donte

DiVincenzo takes a bunch of threes. I think that over the course of this series, Nick Nurse is just going to have more and more options available to him to slow down their shot creation, Whereas like Embiid is going to get the defense in rotation, Tyrese Maxi is dribble penetration is going to get the defense in rotation. I just think they have more offensive talent than New York does, and I think that Philly's defensive scheme is going to

be able to contain Jalen Brunton enough to slow them down. Honestly, I don't, because like the counterpoint there would be like, well what about guys like you know, we talked about Duce McBride earlier, obviously, Boyant mcdonovich, Alec Burks. Those are good players. But I just I think if you move those into your core five views can start to run suffer from some other issues in terms of size and quickness and athleticism elsewhere on the floor. So I don't

really think that solves the problem. And so honestly, like I think from that standpoint, it just comes down to like half court shot creation, and I believe Philadelphia is gonna do a little bit better there. I also think the Sixers have the best player in the series. Like, again, you can't Joelnbiid played like crap last night, but because he's so incredibly gifted, he made like four or five massive plays down the stretch that the Heat just couldn't

do anything about and they won. That is a superpower that I don't even think Jalen Brunson can reach, and so I think that's a huge advantage. Here's the thing. I think the Knicks are a tougher team than Philly. I think they're more resilient. I think they're more bought in,

they have better basketball character. I think they can withstand runs better, and so because of that, I think it's going to be a very long series, and I think the Knicks will likely lead the series early, but I think late in the series the advantages for Philly will take over. If I had to pick a set of games, I think that they'll split in New York. My guess is the Knicks will win Game one and the Sixers a win Game two, and then they'll split back in Philly,

and then they'll go back to New York. And I think the Knicks will win Game five, think they'll go up three games to two. Then I think the Sixers win in rather convincing fashion in Game six, and I think they win an absolute rock fight in Game seven in Madison Square Garden. So I'm picking the Philadelphia seventy six Ers to beat the Knicks in seven games. Really tough one for me. This is of all the series that I've had to pick so far in this playoff run.

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Let's take a look at some film. Get over to our film setup here. This first action is an example of the way that Jalen Brunson uses screens to get different matchups before he goes into ball screens. So here again we're gonna get Nick Patoom on Jalen Bunson. By the way, get ready to see a bunch of weird personnel. These teams dealt with injuries and trades all year long, and so it's just a bunch of different guys than you're expecting. But we're mainly looking at some specific and

key matchups and actions. So look at this. You set a quick You're gonna set a quick screen here to get Nick Batoom off of Jalen Brunson. Now Tobias Harris is in the action, and as a result, Tobias Harris not as good of a screen navigator Brunson's able to work downhill. This is that dynamic of drop coverage defense with Embiid that I'm talking about. How many of these battles that little hea tation move gets him a little bit of an angle, he gets in and he sinks

a floater here. How many of those battles is Jaylen Brunson gonna win? How many battles is Joel Embiid going to win? That's that drop coverage bracket dynamic that I'm talking about. That's a clip where Brunson won. Here's an example of Joel Embiid getting to work very next possession, actually getting to work on Isaiah Hartenstein in the middle of the floor. The Knicks do a poor job of shrinking the floor here, So watch Hartenstein and Beach is

able to go through him. But look at the Knicks, they just kind of leave this entire lane of the floor. Dante DiVincenzo gets a late dig, but he's not there soon enough, and so Embi just easily goes through him all the way to the rim. You'll see that difference when they shrink the floor versus when they don't. It makes a big difference in how successful Embiide is. Here's an example of how Tyres and Philly may look to attack Jalen Brunson. So as you can see, they tuck

Jylen Brunson on Nick Patoum. Again, that's the matchup I think they will go with if they end up starting Batum or closing with him. They're gonna hedge and recover here. But og and Andobi's gonna use a little kind of veteran trick to allow this play to work. So again, here's our hedge. Watch Og and Andobi's right arm. He's looped around and is basically hugging Batom. Why does that matter? Batoomb can't slip out of the hedge now because OG's

holding him, so he holds him for a while. That way, when Brunson wants to recover, Og can recover, and now everything is back in order, and they force him into a tough pull up jump shot that he misses. I think Og will get some minutes on Tyres Maxie as well. I just don't think necessarily that's the best use of him. Here's a much better example of the Knicks shrinking the floor on Joel Embiid. Here we go, we're gonna get the same kind of thing Hard and Sein drive. Watch

how much better they do kind of closing these gaps. Now, Dante DiVincenzo digs in without being late. He digs early before Embiid gets ahead of Steam, and he's able to force a turnover. Here's an example of an action that the Sixers ran to get a really good look for Tyre Maxi. You guys will recognize this as stack, pick and roll. So again we got our ball screen. Here's the ball screen. Og chases over the top, Hartenstein's kind of in a bit of a high drop, Embiid's rolling.

Nick Batum is going to set a backscreen on Isaiah Hartenstein, and there's a bunch of things that open up here. Actually, Jalen Brunson does a really nice job peeling off of Batoum and getting a late contest, and he actually forces a miss. But they got a really good look out of that. But it doesn't matter. And this is the advantage of stack pick and roll. Look at what happens when embiid gets behind Hartenstein. So Hartenstein gets backscreened, and

so EMBIID. Now even though Maxi misses this layup, Embiid is just in super you know, he's just in commanding offensive rebound position. And Hartenstein's just not going to be able to do much when he's getting backscreened like that. To get back in front of him and box him out. Here's an example of really good individual defense by Nick Batoom on Jalen Brunson. Watch the screen navigation, watch the late contest fighting over the top, and again it's all

about length. It's not even necessarily about getting caught on the screen a little bit. It's can you bother this shot from behind and he can He gets a really good contest. You can actually see Brunson flop as he tries to draw foul on it, but he's making Brunson uncomfortable with back pressure there. That's a really good rep alrighty. This is a more individual defense from Isaiah Hartenstein on

Joel Embiid and more shrinking the floor. So again, as I talked about in the early part of the video, it's all about Isaiah Hartenstein absorbing contact long enough for the other guys to come over. So Embid's going to make it a really aggressive move here as he does his rip through. Watch Hartenstein absorb this blow which stands and bead up long enough for Julius Randall to come

in from behind and get a block. Again, they can if they shrink the floor around him, and you make Isaiah Hartenstein's job like, you don't have to even contest. You just need to absorb that contact long enough for us to get into the picture and make a play. Here is the exact same concept, but this time in transition some beads looking to push. Look at Hartenstein's sprint back even though he got hit in the face. Sprint back, absorb the contact, allow the help to come over again.

If you can just slow him down enough, if he can slow him down enough for the help to get into the picture, I think they're gonna do a good enough job defensively on him. Here is an example of Deuce McBride playing some good individual defense on Tyree Maxey. And then also a coverage thing that I wanted to

talk about. If Tyree Maxey's ten vent makes ten percent fewer of his pull up jump shots and loses forty percent of shot value, why not considering why not consider ducking under some picks so you're gonna see the first one Duce McBride beats him to the spot. That's an athletic play that only Duce McBride can make on the knicks compared to some of these other guys. Again, look at that really quick step. He's just one of those guys that can actually match up quickness with Tyres Maxi

relatively well. Now from here. Now, I think he made this read because the ball screen was so high, but Duske goes underneath this screen. I'm saying they should probably consider doing this even more often. But here's an example of it. Pretty far away from the basket, Duske goes way under Actually, I mean that screen is pretty low. It's possible that this is the game plan in this segment of the game, but I would consider using this as part of their game plan to try to contain

some of Tyre's dribble penetration. He's gonna step into a pull up three and he's gonna miss it again like a forty dip and shot value for Maxi when he takes a dribble before he shoots. Here's an example of when Deuce McBride does chase over the top, and this is actually why I think it was kind of an impromptu move there from McBride. But we're gonna get it back to Maxi. Juice is gonna chase, but because he chases,

he's gonna give up dribble penetration. And see like he doesn't really have much trouble turning the corner on Hartenstein. So again, that's an example of why I might consider going underneath picks. This tyrese Maxy dribble penetration thing is the biggest thing that I have fear for for New York. Here og and Obi's on the ball, OG's so concerned about Tyree's getting to that strong hand and potentially a brush screen from Ubre here that Maxi just goes to

a basic crossover dribble and just toasts him off the dribble. So, yeah, Maxie, dribble penetration is gonna be a huge, huge factor in this series. Embeide's ability to manage double teams is going to be a key element of this series. I'm gonna show you, guys an example of a bad post upread from Joel Embiid, and this is the kind of thing that Embiid's just gonna have to do better if Philly's gonna win the series. So post entry over the top,

we get baseline help. Now you can't see in the picture, but Kelly Ubre is on this wing, and what we have here is we have our double team of Embiid. Josh Hart is basically our low man. He's in position to rotate to Tobias Harris. Quentin Grimes is fronting Nick Patoom and not allowing this entry. Jalen Brunson is in position to guard Tyrese Maxey. The open man is Kelly Ubray on this left wing, and instead, for some reason, Joel Embiid just throws it right to Quentin Grimes, and

Quinton Grimes gets it. So those are the kinds of reads that Embiid's just gonna have to do a better job making. Here's one of the examples that I was talking to you guys about with Isaiah Hartenstein looking to score when Embiad's trolling the paint. So Embiad's just not worried about Hartenstein's calling for the ball. But Embiid's not worried about Hartenstein. Now watch embiads start trolling the off ball actions so good Brunson looks to make a little backcut,

em Bead slides over that way. Og Nnobe back cuts Kelly Ubray and beat slides over that way. So Embid's just trolling the paint, ignoring hart ands segn and Hartenstein just goes, fuck it, I'm gonna drive and he gets into the lane and makes his little pop shot so again, and he'll do that. He's been doing that all season long. Like, you just gotta be careful with Hartenstein with as Embiid, Like, just make sure you keep an eye on him and pay attention to when he's getting ready to load up

for one of those drives. Here's an example of a coverage I expect to see from the Knicks throughout the series. Is a strong side zone, so run a ball screen, we get a little feed embead now strong side zone here because Julius Randall's not guarding anybody, He's just stepping outside this block, so he doesn't get a defensive three second. It's effectively a double team. We have really poor off ball spacing here, and Embiid's gonna end up taking a little jab step jumper and this is gonna be one

of the biggest shots of the series for him. If he shoots fifty percent on that shot, I think the Sixers are gonna win. If he shoots thirty percent on that shot, I think the Sixers have a good chance of losing. Here's an action that I really want to see a lot from the Sixers in the series, and an easy way to get the defense in rotation. So this is actually one of my primary concerns for the Knicks.

I don't think the Knicks have an action they can go to that is as guaranteed to generate an advantage situation as this particular action is going to be. So we have og in andobi on Tyreese Maxi. We have Joel Embiid setting the screen, we have Hartenstein in a high drop. Embiid pops to the three point line and he catches there. Now we know Embiid can shoot, but Embiid is looking to drive this close out. This is what we call a baked in driving lane. Right. We

talked about this all the time. When the offensive player is in a in a spot up situation and the guy who's guarding him is helping a severely on one side of him, even if he throws a good close out, there is a baked in driving lane in the opposite direction from where he's closing out from. So we have our kickout pass. Hartenstein is closing, but Embiid has a baked in rip to the left, takes it, gets easily

downhill and finishes. So again, whether it's a catch and shoot three if he closes out short, whether it's an immediate help where Embiid has to make a read from there, at the very least, the Sixers can go to that and relatively consistently get the defense in rotation. The alternative there is, oh, we're just gonna We're gonna consider switching right. So let's just have og In and Obi guard Embiid and we'll put Hartenstein on Tyrese Maxy. Tyres Maxy is

just gonna beat him off the dribble. We saw it. We've seen that already in these pick and roll coverage. Is how easy he can turn the corner on Hartenstein. And so I think this is going to be a predicament for the Knicks, this basic little pick and pop action. Here's another example of individual defense by Nick Batoom on Jalen Brunson, and this was This to me, is the direction I think the Sixers need to go. So we got some backcourt ball pressure. Brunson gets an angle on him,

gets rid of the basketball. We're gonna cut through here, brunts of Batom stays attached. We get screening action, screening action, He gets all the way around, gets back in front, gets crossed over, gets crossed over again, even though he gets beat a little bit. Watch the backside length here. That's an extremely well contested shot from Nick Watum and Brunson was just on one this night and he made it. And again, Brunton's a star. He's gonna make these plays.

I want you to watch this play without me stopping it from start to finish. Just look at the job that Nick Watoum does just being a pest pressuring the ball, staying attached, navigating screens. While this is a beast of a screen from Julius Raandel that he gets through, Like, look at how hard he gets hit and he fights through that gets through. Hartenstein, gets back in front, gets

beat by another move, and gets a great contest. I think he has the best combination of length and mobility to do this job, so I would go with Nick Batoon. Here are the Here's what happens when the Knicks actually switched the pick and pop with Tyrese Maxi. Okay, so as you can see here, we're gonna get the switch. But at the same time because Og kind of like stayed attached before he switched, he gets a little bit late on the close out and Embid knocks down a three.

But also they could just as easily they could just as easily swing this back to Tyrese Maxi he and he can attack a heart and segn off the dribble. Last thing, this is the Knicks action that I think that they could go to to kind of get the defense in rotation as best as they can. This is going to be a two man game with Jalen Brunson and Dante DiVincenzo. So here's our matchups. We have Tyrese Maxey and Dante. We have Kelly hu Bray Junior on Brunson.

The first time they said it it's just going to be a switch, but Jalen Brunson is just too good of a score to be guarded by the likes of Tyree's max He easily gets to a spot knocks it down. So this next one you'll see same exact thing. Switch. But Batoum comes with a double team and Batune by the way, good work on the double team of getting into the passing lane to make it a little bit more difficult. Now Brunson just makes a bad rehere. He's just got to find a way to get this over here.

Just has to find a way. Instead, he ends up swinging it to the right wing. They find a little slot drive, but embeads at the rim. They draw foul anyway, But that's just an example of Philly switching that specific action. The other thing that they could consider doing, like I talked about earlier, is just a hedge and recover. So let's say that on this play, let's say that Dante comes up, Tyree's can literally just step out and cut off the drive, and then as soon as he cuts

off the drive, just close out. And then because he cuts off the drive, Brunson will have to come this way, which buys Btum a chance to recover meet him over here somewhere. So yeah, again, don't feel super strongly about this one. This is the only series that I've seen that has had me waffle back and forth this much. So Knicks fans, I don't want you to think that I don't think you have a chance to win this series.

I certainly think you do. I think the Vegas line is a strong indicator of the fact that Vegas views this as a very close series as well. But to me, I just think there's a little bit more offensive firepower for Philly and a similar defensive ceiling, and so I'm going with the Sixers. But the basketball character gap between these two teams and the things that I like about the Knicks I think are going to stretch this thing

way out. So I'm picking these Sixers in seven. All right, let's get to our mail bag, and before we get to a mailback question, I want to talk about Team USA for a minute. So we got the preliminary twelve man roster that got released and I just kind of want to talk through it and give my initial opinions on the basketball dynamics at play with this team. So the twelve players at guard, they have five guards in the group, Steph Curry, Devin Booker, Drew Holliday, Anthony Edwards,

Tyres Halbern at forward. Four forwards Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Jason Tatum, Kawhi Leonard. Those are the four legendary American forwards. It's gonna be really cool watching them all play together. And then at the center position, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam at a bio. So first thing that I want to get into is I would start Anthony Davis over Joel Embiid. I don't think he will. I think Embiid's cache is going to lead to him starting, but

I personally would start Joel Embiid. The highest value that can be brought at that position with this group of players is versatile defense and connectivity on offense. Embiid is a one dimensional defender. He defends in drop coverage. He can protect the rim, but he's not good out on the perimeter, and he's not a great read and react player. He's not the kind of guy that's going to be able to play in a heavy ball in player movement

type of offense. Anthony Davis, you've watched him succeed as a connective piece in the Lakers five out equal opportunity offense, and he's very versatile defensively. He can defend and drop coverage and protect the rim. He can defend and highdrop, he can blitz, and he can switch and again. And I want to try to explain this point by using the starters. So what I would start with with this group is Steph Curry at the one, Jason Tatum at the two, Kevin Durant at the three, Lebron James at

the four, Anthony Davis at the five. You would have all sorts of scheme versatility with that group. You could switch one through five even if Steph ended up in an unfavorable matchup. Steph could press up on the jumper or front the post in a post up situation. Because literally on the back line you have Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Lebron James and Jason Tatum and a ton of length and athleticism that can cover ground and help. So I think you could do some switching there, or you can

run drop and have Tatum run over the top. I think Tatum is a is a guy that can be very impactful as a primary point of attack defender. It's something that I think has been an underrated trade of his over the course of his career. And have that length chasing over the top to funnel into Anthony Davis in a drop coverage with Kevin Durant and Lebron James operating as the low man or the guy on the wing that rotates down like they're I think you could

do a lot defensively with that particular group. With Joel Embiid, I just don't think you're as versatile defensively now. Embiid has value here like bigger European centers that can bury Anthony Davis under the rim if you run into that kind of matchup, if you run into Jokic, Joel Embiid is one of the guys that actually has the physical size to kind of hang with NICOLEA Jokic, But in

the aggregate in most matchups. I like Anthony Davis there and then on the offensive end of the floor, AD is just like like Ad and lebron think about the damage they do with the Lakers in all their horn sets and stuff as just operating at the elbow as screen and roll guys like I now imagine instead of Austin Reeves and D'Angelo Russell, it's Kevin Durant and Steph Curry.

That's where I kind of see the fluidity and connect activity of that five man group, just working with more of like a five out big in Anthony Davis rather than this you know, supremely gifted post up ISO player in Joel Embiid. I think there's value there, but I think he I think Anthony Davis makes more sense in the core groups. Who else should play? When I look at the roster, I think Drew Holliday has to play. I think Kawhile Leonard has to play again, Joel Embiid

has to play, especially in specific matchups. I think that's your eight man rotation. So Steph Tatum, lebron kd Anthony Davis, Drew Holliday, Kawhile Leonard, Joel Embiid, And then if you needed another perimeter defense option if a super quick guard that's causing you problems, and Tatum is struggling with screen navigation, and Drew Holliday for whatever reason, is not fast enough

for the guy. I think Anthony Edwards is another guy who could get really handsy on the perimeter and contain a ball handler, So I think you could go to him as well. As far as my prediction goes for how that team will perform, if they embrace five out and they play for each other, I think they're gonna wipe the floor with everyone. But if they kind of play your turn, mind turn and they don't embrace all the details and they play lazy basketball, the teams overseas

are good enough to beat them. But that said, even though the top of the NBA is no longer American players, the depth of talent in the United States is still far greater than the rest of the league. And we're sending our best guys this time. And if they embrace playing for each other and doing the right things, I think they're gonna win easily. In the Olympics. All right, mail that question. Jokich is nineteenth and free throw attempts

per game, But tenth in points in the paint. Of those ahead of him in free throws attempts but behind in points in the paint are Anthony Edwards, Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Demarta Rosen, Zion Williams, and Palaponcaro, Jared Jackson Junior and maybe more. I ran out of room before I was asked to pay. Plus, Jokich has as many or more games played than almost all these guys. Anyway, why do you think Jokic doesn't get the free throw

attempts others do? And what do you think he could do different to get those free throw attempts? Love the show and watch an earlier episode keep it up. Thank you so much for the kind words and for supporting the show so I can relate to this personally as someone has rooted to Lebron, rooted for Lebron James, and I think Lebron generally through his career has not gotten very many foul calls, especially over the course of this

later stretch of his career. But like I've never had a problem with it, and the main reason why is I want Lebron to be able to play bullyball and in order for Lebron to be able to play bullyball, you gotta have a give and a take there. And I don't think you have to look much further than the free throw attempt leaders to see that bullyball players don't really get rewarded. Now, Giannis is the exception. Giannis is number one in free throw attempts. He's the outlier.

I think he gets an absurd whistle. I every time I watch Gianni's play, I watch him run dudes over and get foul calls, and I think it's completely ridiculous. I don't have an explanation for you. He's the outlier. But Lebron. James and Nikole Jokic are both top ten in points in the paint, but they both only shoot six free throws a game. And I'm okay with that because I want them to be able to physically inflict

themselves on the opponent as well. But if you go down the rest of the free throw attempt list, it makes some sense. It's like Number two is Shake Gilsers Alexander. He's a finesse player who's a grifter. Number three is DeMar DeRozan. He's a finesse player who's a grifter. Number four is Luka Doncic. He plays some bully ball, but he gets his calls with finesse grifting. You know, low

gatherers pump fakes things along those lines. Right. Anthony Davis is at six and free throw attempts he flops a lot. Nikole Jokic doesn't. That's kind of in his personality, right. Number seven is Damian Lillard. He's a finesse grifter. So you get the point, Like, free throw attempts are so not about necessarily about shooting in the paint. It's about grifting. The shooting in the paint is part of it. You want to shoot in the paint. The Lakers being a team that scores in the paint a lot is part

of what pushes up their free throw attempts. But the real reason they shoot a ton of free throws is Austin Reeves is a grifter. Anthony Davis is a grifter. Two of their top four scorers are guys that specialize in finding ways to get to the foul line. So like, at a certain point like that that is kind of it's only half the battle. Half the battles getting in the paint often and getting into contact situations a lot.

The other half of it is like it's kind of a gamesmanship thing, and Lebron James and Nicole Jokic have never been good at that gamesmanship. I'm happy with that because I don't want to watch them do that. Like you see Lebron pump fake and draw a foul on on Larry Nants because he leaves his shoes in the Pelicans game. That's pretty uncommon. That's not something that Lebron does often. The best foul grifters in the league they do it three four times every single game. Jason, You're

the man. Is there any reason Lebron doesn't match up hunt, KCP and Murray. I think the Lakers are missing out on taking advantage of the drat, especially for d Low to keep him engaged, or ever run screen and rolls to keep Yokic involved. So I think this is one of the major kind of like swing factors of the series. I think that they absolutely need to keep their five starters on the floor as much as possible because in order to attack Kntavio's callbo Poper Jamal Murray mainly, I'm

looking at Jamal Murray there. I think Knatavio's called Pope's just a really good defender, and I think hunting him is a suicide mission to begin with. But with Jamal Murray, you have to have him guard a good offensive player or he's just gonna hedge and recover. And it's really

that simple. Like you know, a lot of times where things fall apart for the Lakers against the Nuggets is when they can hide Jamal Murray on a Cam Reddish or last year at Dennis Schroeder, and then even if he hedges, the guy slips out of that screen, and even if he catches, Jamal can recover in time, or they just don't have to worry about that guy knocking

down the shot. If you make Jamal Murray guard Austin Reeves because KCP has to guard d Low, because Aaron Gordon has to guard Lebron, because Michael Porter Junior has to guard Ruby Hachimura, then in that situation, if they

don't switch in, they hedge. Austin Reeves is a very good movement shooter, and he can pop to the foul of the free throw line, or slip to the free throw line, or pop to the three point line and make shots and attack closeouts and things along those lines, like, again, attacking a matchup is not as easy as like just call first screen, get a switch and go. Most coach, you don't think Mike Malone is sitting around going like, how do we make sure Jamal Murray does not get

attacked in this series? And the way they're going to do that in most cases is going to be hiding him on the worst offensive player every single opportunity they get, and when he has to guard a good offensive player, they're going to have him hedge and recover and so again and again that hedge and recover. For those of you guys who don't understand that the concept, it's just when the screen gets set, you jump out high to cut off the driving lane, and then you sprint back

to the screener as soon as you can. Hi, Jason, I think the Lakers should put Austin on Michael Porter Junior and put Lebron on Jamal Murray for defense. I think Austin is fast enough to keep his body on MPJ and Lebron can bully Jamal. Maybe not for the whole series, but justin Jamal starts cooking. What do you think so Austin on MPJA is a little bit of an issue because MPJ can just shoot over him easily.

That was an issue early in the series. Last year, Austin actually started with the Michael Porter Junior assignment and just got shot over and rebounded over a lot. It's just too much of a size disadvantage. Now, I do think you can consider going to that. Look if you run into the situation where it's a late game situation, you just need a few stops, and then you do what you did in twenty twenty. You put Lebron James on, Jamal Murray, Anthony Davison, Nicole Jokich, switch any sort of

two man game that they run. I'd put DLO on Michael Porter Junior, and I'd put Austin on KCP because KCP is just more active running off of just with speed, running off of screens, and I think Austin's a little bit more diligent staying attached. Michael Porter Junior spots up more, even though Michael Porter Junior also runs off screens. Everybody runs off screens, but KCP does so more. So I would put Austin there, and I put Delo on Michael

Porter Junior. But I do think they'll go to that look, I just don't think it's something you can ask Lebron to do for an entire series. I think it's more of a crunch time thing. One of the major points of this series that I'm looking at here is like, how much of the dirty work are Lebron and Ady willing to do? Are you gonna let Ruiy just get flambayed on an island or are you going to step

in there and try to help him? Because, like I hate to break it to you, but if you go down with Ruby guarding Jokic, You're just gonna lose the series. And you might lose the series anyway, but I think your best bet is to ask your two best defensive players, Lebron James and Anthony Davis to try to close that deal. Last question, Jason, your logic is correct, but I'm not there that Steph has declined because of age. It's more

to do with lack of support. Lebron is a top ten to twelve player with the top ten supporting cast, that is championship ceiling. By that logic, Steph, who is ranked higher than Lebron, needs similar support than you can have that ceiling. First of all, I don't think Steph's better than Lebron anymore. I think Lebron has clearly played better basketball than him this season, especially down the stretch of the season. I do think supporting cast plays a role.

There's no doubt that Steph has a really tough job. But I watched Steph in twenty twenty one, without Klay Thompson, with a substantially more limited offensive roster, be at a much much higher level as a player. Go back and watch some of those games from the springtime in twenty twenty one, the year they lost in the play in. Go back and watch some of those games. They would have made the playoffs straight up if it wasn't for

Steph like bruising his tailbone on the stairstep. He was cooking the entire league in that series or in that season in the springtime, similarly limited supporting cast. I'd argue this year's supporting cast is better than the supporting cast he had in twenty twenty one. Steph found a way to keep the team afloat with his high level play. Anyway, there's this guy right now in twenty twenty four is not the same guy that Steph was in twenty twenty one.

That's why I think it's a decline. There's no doubt that there's been some supporting cast related issues that have made things tougher on Steph. But the bottom line is, for a significant chunk of the tail end of the season, Steph was a low twenty point per game guy that was inefficient by his standards. That's not what he was

regardless of sporting cast in the previous three seasons. That's why I thought it was concerning, and to that point, Lebron last year because he couldn't shoot because he was in his mobile. Obviously he was injured as well, he wasn't playing as well even though he had a similar level supporting cast. Lebron has gotten better. That's why he looks better this year. I don't think it's over for Steph.

I think it's possible that he polishes some things up and does some stuff with his body to regain some quickness and regain some of that Steph kind of flare next year. But that was an extended stretch of Steph just playing at a hefty tier below. Like I'll just put it simply, Steph wasn't even playing at a top ten level for the last third of the season. That

was a major, major concern for me. And again, like I said, just compared to that twenty twenty one season and how well he was playing with a limited supporting cast. That's where I get concerned, and that's why I said on the show the other day, I think the championship ceiling is over. If Steph can't recapture legitimate top five Steph, it doesn't matter if you bring in a secondary star, You're still just not going to be as good as the other teams in the Western Conference. All Right, guys,

that is all I have for today. Is always I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show. We will be back on Saturday morning with a couple of really quick previews of the one to eight matchups, and then later that night live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Game one of Nuggets Lakers, I will see you guys. Then the volume