The Volume. All right, welcome to you tonight here at the Volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. We are one day away from the start of the NBA Finals, And after much deliberation, after much film, after mail bags, after everything, We're finally going to do our prediction show today. So I'm gonna go over the five things that I expect to see in this series, just five kind of general predictions of things that I think we'll see. And then lastly, at the end of the show, I will give you guys
my pick for the twenty twenty four NBA Finals. You guys know the drill before we get started, to subscribe to the Hoops and I YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't missho announcements. Don't forget about a podcast feed where you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight. And then, last but not least, keep
dropping mailbag questions and those YouTube comments. We keep hitting them throughout the series and over the course of the off seats. All right, let's talk some basketball. So five things I expect to see in the twenty twenty four NBA Finals between Boston and Dallas number one. I expect Luca to look very comfortable. We just saw against Minnesota's defensive personnel with Jade McDaniels, who, again I don't think
he's as big and strong. Obviously, he's not as big and strong as Tatum, who will present a different type of physical challenge to Luca. But we saw Kyle Anderson, who's a similar type of physical build. We saw Jaden McDaniels. We saw a lot of really good defensive personnel on Luca and a substantially better rim protector in Rudy Gobert than anybody that Boston brings to the table. And Luca
looked really comfortable. Thirty two points per game, He's forty seven percent from the field forty three percent from three on eleven attempts per game in that series against Minnesota. So I think Luca is gonna look more or less similar in terms of his command of the series in this particular matchup. His knee looked better, He looked more or less one hundred percent to me. He's also had a full week of rest since then to kind of
keep things sharp and healthy. So like I expect luculd look to look comfortable and then also Boston's pick and roll defense is the weak point of their defense. They obviously Porzingis being out had an impact on the metrics, but even with Porzingis in the lineup, that's the one week point in Boston's defense. They have defenders that do okay in switches they like I think Al Horford does better on switches than a guy like Porzingis, but Porzingis
is much better at the rim. But neither of them presents that unique capability that a Rudy Gobert or some other guys around the league that can defend in a deep drop, defend at the level, and defend in switches, and so I expect a lot of attacking there. Now, Boston's gonna have counters like we talked about in the film Sessions, I expect to see Christops Porzingis on PJ.
Washington for the majority of the series, But in general, I think that Luca is gonna look to attack that specific opening throughout the series, and I do think he will look comfortable. Number two, PJ. Washington's three point shooting will be the main swing factor for the Dallas Mavericks. Again,
as we talked about with Porzingis, on PJ Washington. The simple problem that presents for Dallas is if he rolls into the lane on ball screens against Porzingis, he's just not the vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford or Derek Lively is. If he pops to the three point line, he's a twenty nine and a half percent above the break three point shooter in this postseason run over forty one percent
from the corners. But by virtue of just the way pick and roll works, when you pop to the three point line, generally speaking, it's an above the break three, and it would just be really difficult to configure that to end in a corner three for PJ. Washington anyway.
And so PJ. Washington's ability to knock down above the break threes, or to drive those closeouts and hit floaters and make plays off the bounce, that is going to be a huge swing factor for Dallas's offense in the series, because he is going to be the entry point for them to attack Boston's defense through Porzingis or Wharford, whoever's on the floor. Number three, porzingis Is three point shooting will be the main swing factor for Boston. One of
the main elements to Dallas's defense. They are a load up defense. They want to keep their rim protectors at the rim. They want to shrink the floor on ball handlers, and leave openings at the three point line, usually on the opposite end of the four, specifically in pick and roll. Gafford and Lively have been guarding a role man in Rudy Gobert that has bad hands, that struggles to finish layups. He shot below fifty percent on layups in this postseason run. Right, So,
like totally different type of offensive threat in Chrisops. Porzingis even than chet Holmgren, who shot just twenty two percent from three in the Dallas Maverick series. Right, So, like porzingis who's shooting forty percent from three in the four playoff games he's played this year and I think thirty eight percent for the season. Just a completely different threat and specifically is comfortable and confident shooting out well beyond the above the break line, like out to like twenty
six twenty seven feet. He's pretty comfortable, and so Blively and Gafford if they're going to protect the rim in ball screens and in just straight iso post up situations where they're just helping off of Porzingis, They're going to have to concede those threes. I believe they will concede them to start the series right. If Porzingis starts hitting, that will force Dallas to abandon a lot of their core defensive concepts and change the way that they look
to guard a lot of this stuff. So Porzingis's three point shooting is going to be huge. If his efficiency dips to the point where it's it's tendable for Dallas to leave him open, or if Porzingis loses confidence, that could be a massive swing in Dallas's favor over the course of the series. We've seen good shooters on great teams lose confidence in the finals before even in for the champion. Last year, Michael Porter Junior struggled for Denver.
Michael Porter Junior struggled again this year in the Minnesota Series, right like Harrison Barnes in the twenty sixteen finals. We've seen guys that can shoot go ice cold in the NBA Finals and just the pressure of that stage, in that situation, and if that happens to Porzingis, that would be a huge swing in Dallas's favor, especially if it continued along to Horford number four, Jason Tatum's impact will
extend well on the box score. I'm not interested in having a conversation about how well Tatum is playing in this series that focuses solely on the box score. It's a factor he will need to produce offensively. But if he's at twenty five points per game in the series on you know, the call it sixty percent true shooting, but it seems like he's not as involved offensively. That probably has a lot to do with the way he's being guarded in all of the defensive responsibility that he
has in this group. Obviously, if he goes into the series and he averages twenty two points per game and shoots like thirty seven percent from the field, that's a different story. But make sure that we pay attention over the course of the series of all the little things that Tatum does to make this team function on the offensive end of the floor, with him being the entry point to because he's one of their best playmakers, probably
the best playmaker on the team. With him running guard action with Derek White and Drew Holliday to attack Luka Doncic get the defense in rotation with simple playmaking, and then everything he can do on the defensive end of the floor between being the low man switching on to anybody switching on to Luca Tatum is a Swiss Army knife and needs to be covered in that specific way.
It's a very different type of series this. I used to run into this all the time with comparing Lebron to some of these other guys at the top of the league, Like what Luca does for Dallas is very different than what Jason Tatum does for Boston, and so just zeroing in on box score numbers I don't think is a fair way to characterize their roles in this series. And then lastly, I think we will see multiple Boston
blowouts in this series. I'm not going to get into the specifics why because I want to save it for my prediction but or my actual pick for the series. But one of my big predictions for the series, I think we will see multiple games where Boston wins in the game is over in the early fourth quarter. I think that's just going to be a recurring theme. I think we're going to see at least two of them
over the course of the series. So here's my prediction I'm picking Boston in six games, and my reasoning is pretty simple. I think that Dallas's defense, even though it is an elite defense, is a little bit dependent on loading up on the strong side. Go through their match in the first three rounds with the Clippers. If you Kazubas non shooter, Terrence Man, guy who can knock down threes but not a super aggressive three point shooter, Russell
Westbrook bad three point shooter. PJ. Tucker bad three point shooter, go to the Thunder series. Lou Dort and Josh Gitty were guys that you weren't necessarily concerned about chasing off the line. Chet Holmgren had a bad shooting series, even Kesan Wallace and Aaron Wiggins struggled to shoot so they
could really load up the strong side. For the Timberwolves, Rudy Gobaert non shooter, Jada McDaniels the guy they weren't particularly worried about, Nikile, Alexander Walker, guy they weren't worried about. Kyle Anderson, non shooter. That is not what you're dealing with with Boston. All eight of their core rotation players, including the core guys Derek White, Drew Aliday, Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Porzingis Horford off the bench, Peyton Pritchard, and
Sam Hauser. That's probably going to be the core eight guys you see in the series. All eight of them are guys that you basically can't leave open, and so it's just a fundamentally different type of defensive situation that they are in. Boston, in my opinion, is going to force Dallas out of their core defensive ski and really challenge their depth of personnel that can contain on the perimeter.
What does that mean When you can load up on the strong side, you can ask a guard to chase over the top like a Derek Jones junior, you can maintain your your best available matchups, and you can have one elite perimeter defender like Derek Jones Junior do just such a great job on Ant that it kind of changes the series, right or PJ. Washington do a good job on Karl Anthony Towns. That's not what it's going
to be like against Boston. It is going to be a down the roster job of containing on the perimeter in a far more spaced out environment. And I do not think Dallas is that type of defense. Interestingly enough, I don't think Boston is a very good load up the strong side type of defense because they're not a great rim protection team, right, and they're a little bit smaller on the perimeter. But I think Boston is an excellent spread the floor contain on the perimeter depth of
perimeter defense type of team. These are two very different defenses. Boston is actually like really well equipped to guard themselves, right, because you'd be comfortable with Jalen Brown guarding a guy, Jayden guarding a guy, Drew Hollidy guarding a guy, Derek White guarding a guy that is not the type of build that Dallas has, and so, like, I want to be clear, I expect Luca to look great, and I think Dallas's offense will function for stretches of the series.
I think they'll win games in the series. I just think Boston's gonna get good looks more consistently. Back to that fifth prediction that I had, I think there will be nights when Boston's hitting their threes and they run Dallas out of the gym. As I mentioned, I think there will be at least two Boston wins in this series where the game is over in the early fourth quarter. I think Dallas's wins will be more grind out, like stuck in the half court, lower scoring Luca out execute
some type of games. But to be clear, Boston's a really good clutch team too. These two teams actually ranked third and fourth in net rating and clutch situations in the regular season, ranked with the entire NBA. These are both elite clutch teams and so like. If Boston actually steals one or two of the clutch games early in the series, that's where Dallas could be in real trouble. One other thing, Boston is the more experienced team. Tatum, Morford, Brown,
and Derek White have all played in the finals. Drew Holliday literally won the Finals in twenty twenty one. They should be relatively comfortable in this setting, while there might be some jitters on the Dallas front. If I had to guess a pathway for how I think the series is gonna go, I think Dallas will steal one in Boston. If I had to guess, I'll go with Game two, and then I think Boston will steal one in Dallas.
If I had the guess, I'd go with Game four, and then I think Boston will win games five and six. So if I had to pick game by game, that means I think Boston's gonna win Game one, Dallas, Game two, Dallas Game three, Boston Game four, Boston Game five, Boston Game six, more or less a similar pathway to what happened to Boston in the twenty twenty two finals. That's kind of how I see it going at this point. I want to be clear, like Dallas very much has
a chance to win this series. This isn't me saying Boston is one hundred percent going to win and Dallas is a bunch of bums. But in two elite teams, I think it is a matchup that favors Boston. I also think Boston is a little bit better on both ends of the I like that they have home court advantage. I like that they're a little bit more experienced. I think Boston is more likely to win the series, and so I am picking Boston to win in six games. All Right, it's out there, it's in the ether. If
we're gonna cover the games, I'm excited for it. I will see you guys tomorrow night. After the final buzzer. The volume