180. Why the Lakers are still alive

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help in Michigan one eight seven seven eight Hope and Why or text hope and Why to four six seven three six nine in New York. In Tennessee redline dial one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee, visit www one dot one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by FanDuel Here at the Volume. I am Jason Timp Happy Tuesday, everybody. I hope you guys this week is off to a good start. We have an absolutely

jam packed show tonight. We're not going to talk about that specific Lakers games, simply because it does not deserve to be discussed in any capacity. However, we are going to talk about the Lakers and their chances in the playing tournament, whether or not they're gonna get there, what they could do when they get there. We're also going to break down that incredible game between the Bucks and the sixers and Janice's massive second half as he led

them to a comeback win. We're gonna dive a little bit into the m v P race, and then at the end of the show, I'm gonna give you guys my top five contenders in each conference, So not power rankings, not ranking the teams. I'm just going to talk about which teams I had I think have the best chance to win and in championship. And then we've got some special stuff for you guys planned in there as well.

But let's start with the Lakers. So I went on with the guys from Silver Screen and Roll today and we were talking a little bit about the realities of this next couple of weeks for the Lakers. So just to give you guys an update on what the situation is, Mark uh Chris Haynes reported that Lebron and a d are probably both going to sit out on Thursday in Utah, but that they will probably both play on Friday at home against the Pelicans. So that essentially means that they're

punting that game on Thursday. If anything we learned about today's game repeats in Utah, which it almost certainly will. Utah has already lost to the Lakers twice, so you know they're not gonna sleep in that particular game. So chances are the Spurs and the Lakers will be tied for that ten seed at thirty one. And problem is, the Spurs actually have the tiebreaker because they have the better conference record comfortably like that's not changed over the

course of the next couple of weeks. So the Lakers starting Friday with Lebron and Anthony Davis in the lineup, should in theory, have a nice little stretch run there where all they have to do is be better than the Spurs. So that was that's where the schedule gets

a little bit complicated. So as we know, in remaining strength of schedule coming into tonight, the Lakers were second and remaining scheduled difficulty, meaning they have the second toughest remaining schedule, but the Spurs have the fifth toughest remaining schedule. I was looking at each of the games individually. Both teams have a couple of games that are winnable, but for the most part, they're gonna be underdogs in almost every game they play, except for the fact that the

Lakers will have Lebron James and Anthony Davis. And this is where it gets tricky, because I was talking with the guys from Silver Screening Roll today. Think of it like this, the Lakers are a terrible basketball team. We can all agree on that they're on both ends of the floor. They're bad. They're bad down the roster with their talent, They're poorly coached in relation to uh the types of players they have on the roster. And we don't even have to get into front office and management.

They're not a good basketball team. However, this year has been a travesty of injury luck. Lebron and Anthony Davis can't seem to be on the floor together for more than a handful of games at at a time. This season, the two of them have only appeared in twenty two games total, extually twenty one games, and in those games they're only eleven in tent because of continuity and a

lot of other issues. But while we can all agree that the Lakers win healthy with Lebron and Anthony Davis are not a contender, meaning like a top tier contender, they're not Phoenix. Obviously, they're probably not a second tier contender right like they're not on the same level as Boston or a Golden State or a Brooklyn. But with Lebron and Anthony Davis, they probably are comfortably in that third tier, that puncher's chance tier, with those guys on

the floor. Now that DeAndre Jordan is out or off the roster entirely, now that they're no longer playing Kemp He's more and Avery Bradley and Trevor Reason all their worst players, they're probably comfortably in that third tier when they are healthy. It's the Anthony Davis injury in conjunction with their total lack of athleticism that has been such

a problem for them in this past month. But this last stretch of games here, if Lebron and a D are available, if they have their mobility, which I expect them to have, I think Lebron's ankle is going to be okay. And as we saw with Anthony Davis's knee

when he came back, he was very mobile. So if Lebron and a D actually put their foot on the gas and really go for it down the stretch, they should absolutely be ahead of San Antonio and very possibly could finish ahead of the Pelicans if they catch some luck along the way and win that game. On Friday

against the Pelicans. You know, one of the other things we were talking about today, you know, there's a it's very important for the Lakers to try down the stretch here and to make an impressive showing, even if they lose, because looking forward to this coming summer, obviously the Lakers need to clean house, right. They probably have a new coach, they'll probably have a bunch of different role players, they'll

probably have a very different dynamic surrounding the team. But in order to do so, the importance for the Lakers to have a strong showing has to do with this coming off season and the fact that you have to somehow convince players to come in at a discount. Just

like what happened the last couple of years. The Lakers are primarily going to be relying on guys like Kendrick Nunn or Montrez Harrold, So guys that probably could get ten fifteen million on the open market that decided to take a discount to come to the Lakers, or guys that could get that five to ten million who end up taking a veteran minimum contract. We've seen a bunch of examples of that over the course of the last couple of years. However, the players can see injury luck,

they can see that kind of thing. They can read through that. What they can't read through is poor effort. If they see a toxic situation, if they see a team that has quit, if they see a dumpster fire, it becomes very difficult to convince a quality role player to take a discount to come play for the Lakers. Think about it like this. You are let's let's say you're, you know, Jeff Green this summer or whatever, somebody that ilk of player quality wing in that you know, uh,

mid level exception to veteran minimum type of market. If you could choose between going to the Clippers, who have looked like a fantastic team this year despite of of injury luck and with Kauai and Paul George coming back and with a very clearly sound environment, with a good coach that fits their players, in a high quality front office, or Brooklyn, who is kind of in a similar boat.

If you could choose between those two teams are going to play with the Lakers with all of the things that have gone poorly for them this season, what would you choose? That's why it's so important. If you can somehow down on the stretch, have a have a couple of quality wins that remind everybody of what Lebron and Anthony Davis are like when they're together. If you could go into the playing game and beat the Pelicans and beat the Clippers and get into that eight seed, that

that adds legitimacy to what you're trying to build. If you go into the first round playoff series against the Phoenix Suns and you go down swinging, even if you don't win, if you go down swinging, then you restore some integrity around the franchise, which allows you to have that phone conversation with this theoretical Jeff Green and be like, hey man, we had really bad luck this year. We couldn't get the we couldn't get the right amount of

um of of continuity. We couldn't get the right right amount of of of consistent you know, uh, stability in order to have an environment that could cultivate good basketball. And maybe you can convince those guys again. But that's why it's so important to have a functional and and coherent and competent finish to this season. And one last note on that front before we move on what happened

last year in the playoffs. We had two teams make it to the conference finals that nobody in a million years would have thought would have made it to the conference finals. Nobody thought Atlanta was gonna beat Philly. Nobody thought Atlanta would go into Milwaukee and still steal that uh that game, wanted that series. No one thought the Clippers were going to eliminate the Utah Jazz and take the Phoenix Suns to six games in the conference finals.

Those are incredibly flawed teams right relative to their peers at the top of the league. But some things broke right for them. A couple injuries here, couple of good injury luck for you. There some matchups that work in your favor. Some role players get hot. You know, we had a Nicholas Betune kind of sighting in that early playoff run for the Clippers. Obviously, Trey Young played a lot better than we expected in that playoff runt. And anything can happen if some things break your way and

suddenly you're in the conference finals. Do I think the Lakers are a top tier contender? No? What do I expect to happen? I expect them to either lose in the plan or to lose in the first round. But that doesn't mean that they can't get there. They have a puncher's chance when they're healthy. That's why you have to get there. Anything can happen. Even the two teams that made it to the finals, the Bucks and the Sons, were not the favorites in their conference. Nobody took Phoenix seriously.

They A lot of people picked the Lakers to win that series, including myself. Nobody thought the Bucks were gonna win. The Bucks were literally the laughing stock of the league after they folded against Miami and had kind of a mediocre regular season that year. So my point is is everything is in flux in the NBA because of the day to day up and downs of what happens with

injuries and what happens with matchups. So it's very important to always push forward, not just for the integrity of your franchise, not just for your credibility when you're communicating with free agents in the summer, but also because you don't know what's gonna happen, and folding is never a good idea as a competitor or for the integrity of the team and the franchise. For those of you who are just joining us. This is Hoops Tonight, presented by

Fandel Here at the volume. We are going to bring on my guy Carson. Carson helps with the show. He also does NBA draft stuff, but that's a story for another day. What's up, Carson? How you doing, my guy? I'm great man, happy to be here. All right, what do you got? So? We are going to play a game called Laker or Faker. It's a pretty simple format. I'm gonna list off a few names to you. You're gonna tell me if this guy next year is going to be a Laker still on the team. If you

think he is not, you're going to say faker. We're gonna start with Russell Westbrook Laker Faker. Interesting, Okay, I like this a going faker. Absolutely have to get off of him for if if nothing else, because even in this recent stretch he's actually played okay like and I mean that term is being used loosely. He's played okay of late and it's still is like a full blown civil war with Laker fans, and within the locker room

there's this weird vibe. You know, we've heard about the coaching staff and what his issues are with Frank Vogel. We've heard from Lebron directly or not directly, but we've heard from Lebron through the grape vine that he's come too. I would be absolutely stunned if he's not here next year.

There's a chance he doesn't get traded. But if he doesn't get traded, I'd expect him to go with an even more nuclear option, which is like a wave in stretch where they basically just split his salary over the next three seasons to free up some immediate cap space. But I would be absolutely shocked if Russ is a Laker next year. I'm going Faker, all right. Moving on Malik Monk, Laker or Faker, I'm gonna go with Laker.

He has had some really good stretches this year, but I think that people, you know, he's gonna fall into that mid level exception type market in my opinion, and in that market, most teams that are using that contract are going to attempt to find somebody who's a more dependable role player. Malik Monk has been a pretty bad defensive player this year. And while he's shown scoring pop and it is off the bench and how he's had

a lot of really good moments. I really really like Leik's game, so I don't want to make it sound like that. However, I have a feeling that he's going to end up being a player that's in the mid level exception type of territory, and I think the Lakers are going to be able to afford him, so I would be I would be surprised if he's not here next year. I'm going Laker if he were to demand more than that, like if he were getting into like the twelve million range, do you think then that's no

longer on the table. Well, so if they waved and stretched Russ, then I think they could theoretically use the non taxpayer mid level exception, which gets close to that number. I just think that would be poor management. If you look at the Lakers this year, their biggest problem has been lack of competent size athleticism. So if you can get Malik for basically what you're paying Kendrick Nunn, that's

one thing. I and and he's there's a bunch of stuff there too, where the Lakers have been saying all the right things, acting like they really like having him around. I just think the more likely scenario if it pushes up to that number, is the Lakers prioritize a wing if they're gonna pay that much. All right, we've got a big one here. Frank Vogel Laker or Faker. Oh. I was thinking about this one the other day. I'm gonna go Faker. But it's close to a coin flip.

The reason why is because what do we know about Genie Buss. We know she doesn't like to spend money. We also have reports that Frank Vogel is under contract next year. Now, the case for bringing Frank Vogel back

would be Frank is actually a good coach. He's just a defensive minded coach, and so when you put him with an offensive oriented roster, you kind of get the worst of both worlds because you lose the defensive element that Frank brings to the table and he's not competent enough with xs and os to maximum eyes that uh that roster offensively. So if they did bring Frank back, they would have to reorient the roster to his strengths, prioritize all the signings and trades this summer around bringing

incompetent defenders and building around that model. Because Frank was the perfect coach for that model. That said, I think a slightly better than coin flip chance that he's gone, simply because my guess is that he's gonna be labeled as a scapegoat in a lot of ways for this season, kind of like russ Is, Who would be the guy to you that you would look at on the market for the Lakers potentially as his replacement? This is a

really interesting question. I you know what we know about Genie again, she likes to stay in house, So I wouldn't be shocked if they looked for one of the assistants on the staff, someone like a Phil Handy. Um. I like Phil Handy as an offensive coach. He's famous kind of as a skill development guy in the league, and allegedly he's been doing a lot of the xs and os for the team offensively in the second half of the season, but those xs and knows still haven't

looked great. Um. I would go for somebody that's proven as an offensive coach and trust the fact that you can get Lebron in a D to lock in and get enough stops. So in that case, I'd be targeting someone like Mike D'Antoni. Okay, all right, Carmelo, Anthony Laker or Faker. I'm gonna go with Laker. I don't I I don't think he should be in the rotation anymore. There's this really interesting phenomenon that happened with Carmelo. It's the textbook case of of of people kind of forming

an opinion about someone and they're not changing. He shot incredibly well for the first like third of the season, like off the charts well. But the truth of the matter is is he hasn't shot particularly well in the last half of the season or so, and as a result, with all of his defensive shortcomings, he's actually been somewhat of a negative player for the Lakers as of late. He's my candidate for a guy who I would drop out of the rotation in favor of leaving someone like

when you gave bal In the in the lineup. I think he's likely to come back just because he's already in l a, he's friends with Lebron. I just think if he's back, he needs to come back and more of like a mentorship, end of the bench type of role. All Right, Austin Reeves Laker or Faker. Laker absolutely coming back. They got him under team control next year anyway, So the only way he begane is if he got lumped in with the trade. And I think the Lakers are

super high on him. I doubt they throw him in, and I don't think his opinion is high enough in the rest of the league to where teams would be like, hey, we're not doing the deal unless you're throw in Austin. So I'm going Laker, all right, probably the biggest one we've got here, Anthony Davis Laker or Faker. Oh good one, I'm going Laker. I saw this report from Brian went

Horse earlier today. Now the way I look at it, I understand the idea behind wanting to trade him really bad since the bubble, even when he's been healthy and for the most part he hasn't been able to stay on the floor. So from that standpoint, like I get the thought process behind, maybe you might be able to get something for him. But here's the issue. First of all, every time you do a superstar trade, you get pennies

in return. You never get very rarely do you get that Ben Simmons for James Harden type of return, And chances are if the Nets knew that Ben Simmons wasn't gonna be able to play because a herniated disks, they probably wouldn't have made the deal to begin with. So the way I look at it, you're trading Anthony Davis for a lesser player and some spare parts. So I get it from the standpoint of the lack of depth

that the Lakers have. If you could get a lower level star who's got durability and some quality role players, that's great. My thing is what NBA team out there is gonna give away a bunch of quality role players in a solid star when you know that that Anthony Davis's value is probably the lowest it's been in his career. So, like, I just think, I think selling low on Anthony Davis would be a bad decision. He's had really bad injury luck.

I think you're better off keeping Anthony Davis in the fold for as long as possible and trying to build around on the marsh the Margins. All right, guys, that's it for Carson. We appreciate. We're gonna see him a little bit later in the show. So we're gonna get to this uh incredible Bucks Sixers game from tonight. Um Sixers came out playing really really well. Actually, the Bucks took a little bit of an early lead, but they stayed with it and the and the Sixers weathered along.

I was really impressed with the way James Harden played early in the game. As I've always said, James Harden, his entire game is predicated on getting into the paint, and I think he finished with five made field goals in the paint, which is a huge part of what opens everything else up for him. When he is getting to the paint, that's what allows him to have that defender on their heels a little bit, which sets up

his step back. When he goes to his step back and the defenders on his heels and he gets great separation and he can go straight up and down. He's a good shooter on the step back. When he's kind of using the step back as his bread and butter, and he's not really putting any pressure on the defense, and the defenders playing up into him, he didn't get as much separation. That's when he starts missing him and

trying to draw fouls instead. I I thought it was really interesting that James Harden's best game as a Sixer came hand in hand with him finally getting into the basket. It also opened up things with his playmaking and there in the second half he was able to draw a lot of fouls. But as you saw over the course, it was just after wave of Bucks there was a stretch. It's all the Philadelphia TV properly with the stat here.

I'm pretty sure that that Yannas scored tea conceptive point end to start forward and honest the game Chris Bilton came in, it was just playing awesome. And then as soon as Chris Middleton cooled here came Drew Holiday and Drew Holiday, it was awesome. It's just one thing after another, and so much of it had to do and Drew Off. They actually playing to their potential. How though that they can be. They were very instant for the course of

the last couple of weeks. In particular, is that playoff early stretches, that plot friend in the Bucks for Shortland, it was at Holiday games that was those problems through all day. I don't know the Olympics or it was. Deal is even more comment than he has ever ever been. He fantastic. That changes the entire dynamic of that team. Now you know Janice obviously was amazing tonight. Obviously, I think he's in contention for being considered the best player

in the league. What I thought, Janice is this conversation that centers around his jump shot, because everyone every time Janice hits a turnaround, fade away, or HiT's the three point shot in transition, I always see the clip on the Twitter feed and everyone's talking. It's like, oh my gosh, if he starts hitting this, it's over for the rest of the league. And I've always disagreed to a certain extent because when I'm looking at player development of stars,

I look at it from two different things. How do you handle individual coverage and how do you handle double teams or teams really packing the paint on you. In individual coverage, Janice doesn't need a three point shot. When he gets the ball on the block, he can dominate any defender in the league, and individual coverage to either get to the basket. Even if you can't write away, he'll wear on them over the course of the game,

he'll draw fouls. So I like the idea of having a jump shot as like an audible to save your legs. So you've bullied your way to the basket. To three times in a row and you're tired, but you have the same matchup and you're still in single coverage. It's nice to have a longer jump hook from further away from the basket, or a turnaround jump shot or a face up game as something you can do to save your legs, but it's not as important in the chess

match of the game. The chess match of the game is gonna involve you're punishing single coverage until they send multiple defenders at you. This is why I've always said the most important part of Janice's development is always going to be his passing. And he's kind of plateauing a little bit in that to partment, which happens to a lot of players because playmaking is so much of a natural gift. It's like the yokich Is and the Lebrons and the uh the Luca don Riches and the Chris

Paul's of the league. Those are usually like your your mount rushmore of playmakers in the league right now, those guys are born with it to a certain extent. And there's a little bit of a plateau for Janice. But the biggest thing that will be what the biggest indicator of whether or not Jannie can be that solo, unbeatable best player in the league will be his ability to make teams pay for sending help to him, far more

than anything having to do with his jump shot. And so what I watched with Joannice on any given night

is going to be his playmaking. How he does, how he does when when things are low, when when the defense has you kind of like we were talking about with the Lakers and the Pelicans the other day in that video that I released, talking about digging into the pain and shutting off driving lanes when you have and when the wall is built and Joannice can't plow over everybody, can he consistently spray out two shooters or two cutters to keep the defense loose so they can't load up

on him. That's always going to be the biggest element of Janice's game to watch moving forward. But with the Bucks, you know, we're gonna get into this a little bit later when we talk about the East contenders. The uh, the Buck's defense has just not been good enough this year at all. In any stretch of the season. I keep like pulling little shorter, you know, chunks of the season to try to see if there was some stretch

of time or maybe they flip the switch. Because when I'm looking at the championship team compared to this team, what I'm looking for is flashes because it's unrealistic for us to expect the Bucks to bring that same level of intensity that they did before they had the ring.

That's just goes against human nature. There's no way in hell that the Bucks want this title as bad as the Sun's do, because the Suns haven't been able to sleep probably for the last calendar year, as they've been wishing themselves mentally for all the mistakes they made along the way that had them coming up short. The Bucks are never going to have that type of mental motivation, even as great as Janice is. So what I look forward teams like this, and that's not a problem you

need to the Bucks. That's every defending champion in NBA history. So what I look for is the little short stretches. Did they have like a fifteen game stretch where they looked like the old Bucks and they just have it.

In March, once again, the Bucks had the sixteenth defense, sixteenth ranked defense in the league, So once again coming into tonight, that is so once again, even in this stretch when you'd expect them to be, you know, tuning up and stepping up and picking up their intensity, they're still not good enough on the defensive end of the floor. And I know, I know Bucks fans will tell you, oh, it's because Bruke Lopez was out, But my thing is like they have enough talent on that roster to be

a coherent and competent defense even without brook Lopez. That's what I've been being told about Janice Antenna Coop over the last couple of years. Perennial Defensive Player of the Year condidate can did it one of the best off ball defensive players in the league. You know, I I don't really buy that excuse, not to mention drop coverages with brook Lopez are kind of a regular season fat anyway, and they don't work as well in the postseason regardless.

So I'm still worried about the Bucks in general. The one thing that makes me feel like maybe they still have that punch is their crunch time defense in clutch situations. Coming into tonight, the Bucks have the sixth best defense in the league. So if there's one little kernel of of hope that you can hold too if you're a Bucks fan in terms of them still having that defensive ceiling that they need to win a championship. It's what

they do in crunch time. And once again you saw tonight, Uh, Janice just a monster defensive play, run under the basket, timing the Joe LM bead rebound and that quick putback to swatt it off of the glass. You know, there's a couple of There's two notes that I wanted to uh talk about from this specific game as it pertains to a potential playoff matchup between these two teams. Now will they face each other in the play us? Who knows?

Like we talked about later, I expect one of these top four seeds to get knocked out by the nets out of the plane, uh, coming out of the plan. And these top four seeds are so influx that you really don't know who's gonna play who. But say the Bucks face the Sixers there too, a specific matchup things that I think are super interesting. First of all, Janice off ball defense. So to start the game that Janice on Mattiste tybel matist Tyble is a okay three point shooter,

not a good three point shooter. So as a help defender, Janice was able to roam a lot more. But when Tibo went to the bench, they bring in Georgia Kneeing. Georgia Kneeing is a much much better three point shooter. He's been right around all season long, and he's tall, so he's got a high release point, a quick release, and he has a shooter's mentality. Georgia Kneeing, if he catches with an inch of space, he's firing. He hit two massive threes at the end of this game. It's

something he's been doing all season long. When Janice was on Georgias Kneeing, he wasn't able to leak into the pain as much. He wasn't able to roam as much. And these are those chess match things that are so interesting in a playoff series. If you're the Sixers, how good is Matisse Thyble gonna be in your defense? Is it worth it having him on the floor when you know that when matissee Thibles on the floor, Janice is gonna hug up to him and be roaming around the

floor helping. Or if you go with George's kneeing, you're gonna have a much better time on offense, You're gonna give James Harden and Joel and Being much more space to operate because Janice is gonna have to stay glued up to Georgie. To Georgia's Niang, but you lose Matiss Thible on the defensive end of the floor, and maybe he's an important part of you being able to build your wall and stop your honest those are the interesting

little chess match pieces. What's probably gonna what it's probably gonna come down to, is making shots. If George's is not, If Niang's knocking down half of his threes and tables broke, then it's gonna be Niang that's in the game. If Niang is not making enough threes and tibles competently knocking down thirty seven percent of them, then they can go towards Thyble and be a much better defensive team. Those

are those little details that swing playoffs series. The last little note that I wanted to hit on on this one was trapping Harden. So the Bucks did a lot of trapping and heavily shading towards Heart Hardened in their pick and roll cover. Just tonight we saw the exact same thing from the Phoenix Suns a few nights ago, where they basically were double teaming James Harden on every single pick and roll. This is a strategy that I

objectively disagree with, especially with this Sixers team. You know, obviously the Sons are a really good defensive team, and they did a pretty good job rotating around that. The Bucks aren't as good, but they did Okay. The thing is is when you consistently are compromising your defense, it

makes your job hard. And in that Son's game the other night, a big part of why the Sixers lingered around the entire game until the fourth quarter was they were persistently playing four on three in the background because the Suns kept trapping James Harden. I did a whole video on this right after the trade. I'm a big believer with James Harden, in particular at the space of his career. This is not two thousand eighteen James Harden. Tonight's game is an unusual result relative to what we've

usually been getting out of James Harden. So what I would do is I would stop sending so much attention to James Harden, and I would dare him to beat you, because I genuinely believe rather than letting Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxie and Joel Embiide play four on three all night long. I would much rather watch James Harden the out of shape, clearly not the same physical athlete that

he was back in two thousand eighteen. I'd rather have that guy constantly trying to break down my defense than constantly compromising my defense and playing four on three in the back end. That's gonna be a really interesting thing to watch with the Sixers in a playoff series, is how teams decide to defend James Harden. Because I do think there will be a point in the in the playoffs where the encounter team that feels comfortable leaving James Harden on an island and he's gonna have to attack

in isolation. And just like that video I shared earlier today, when James Harden attack an isolation, but good teams crowd the lane. There was this big play in that Son's game where Devin Booker locked up a James Harden isolation. Everyone will see stuff like that and think, like, oh man,

Devin Booker locked up James Harden. Devin Booker is only an okay defensive player, but the Sons did a really good job on that possession of shading and taking away James Harden's right hand in help side so that he had no choice but to cross back over to his left or to try to go to the left, and

Devin Booker could sit on it. And that's why when you when you take away that pick and roll option, and and and forced James Harden to try to beat you, He's just not that same superstar level talent that he was in two thousand and eighteen. He's descended down. You could argue Devin Booker is better. You can argue Chris Paul's better. You can argue Jason Tatum and John Moran and a lot of these guys are better than James

Harden at this point. And so because of that, I'm a big believer in leaving him in single coverage, make him beat you. Joel Embiide has been a freaking monster for the last couple of weeks. In that Son's game, and James Harden went two for eleven again, Joel Empiade was getting whatever he wanted. He had to run there in the third quarter where he where he was scoring every damn near every time down the floor. He was a monster again tonight against the Bucks, and Bead's gonna

be fine. Get them to go away from him double and Bead get the ball out of his hands. Forced this to be a James Harden team, and I think that gives you your best chance to beat them. All right, So we're gonna move on to this m VP conversation for a second. So ESPN released their straw poll, which they do a couple of times every year, and it's from actual MVP voters, so tends to be pretty prescient about who's actually going to win m v P. Now, I was very interested in the results to be clear,

real quick, just quick synopsis. Nicola Yokich had sixty two first place votes, Joel embeat at twenty nine first place votes, and Jhanison and Janasontenna Coople only had nine first place votes. So, if you guys remember my little MVP breakdown that I did the other day, I had your kitchen first place as well. But I said, if the Bucks got the one seed, I give it to you. Honest, I think he's very much the best regular season player in the NBA. I value what he brings on a night tonight basis

more than in beating Yokich. As good as Yokich has been this year, I think he has a textbook m v P case. I think giving it to the one seed is a better precedent to set moving forward, provided that the player is in the conversation for the best players in the league and legitimately has had an amazing season,

which the Honest has had. But what the voters are telling you is they're not even They're barely even considering the Honest, which I thought was really interesting, And Bead having as many first place votes as he does is really interesting. Because the Sixers have a very easy schedule the rest of the season. I can't remember off the

top of my head. I think they have the twenty nine easiest or the twenty nine hardest, so second easiest remaining schedule among all NBA teams here down the stretch, whereas the Celtics and the Heat and the Bucks all have significantly tougher schedule. So there's a decent chance that when the dust settles on this thing, that Philly is the one seed and Embeed clearly has a ton of voters support and he might very well get it. I would disagree with that I think both Yokich and Janice

have been better players this season. But I think that, uh, that whoever ends up getting that one seed in the East is probably who I would pick as someone who deserves it. If it ends up being Boston or Miami, then I would go with Nicola Yokis. But it looks like, I mean, again, these are the straw pole, uh, the results that ESPN does that are always so informative about

this process. It looks like it's gonna be Yoki. And like I say, every single gear in my little Twitter rants that I do from time to time, you know, all of these m v P voters have egos. It's kind of just a natural part of the business, I think, And it's much much harder for them to move off of a player than it is for them to just stay put where they're at, because then they can point to all the articles they wrote all season, all of their analysis all season. If they want Yokich, It's just

gonna take a lot for them to overturn that. So I disagree with that. However, it looks like it's it's

going to be Yokich in the end. One last note on on Devin Booker you know, I did a whole thing on this the other day, so I'm not gonna get too far into it, but I I broke down the criterion and I talked about how you know, you're supposed to be the best player on the best team in the league, which Devin Booker has down pat but he's not in the conversation for the best player in the league, and he hasn't been the most Valuable player

in the league. And this is where I'm gonna repeat something that I heard from Ryan Russilo, who because I'm always listening to everybody, because I always want to hear what other people's opinions are because it just gives you more perspective. And the best synopsis of the Bookers situation that I've heard was Ryan Russilo. He just said, have any of us for even a second thought that Devin Booker has been the best player in the league this year,

or that he's had the best season. No, and if you haven't at least had that conversation, I don't think you can be in that uh, in that conference. I don't think you can be a realistic m VP candidate. I appreciated that Ryan put that so succinct because, as is always the case with me, I'm gonna have it in a lot more of a long drawn out type of way. I Booker has not had the best season in the n B in the NBA this year, so he simply cannot be the MVF he by any measure

that we've previously used this award for. So again I predict it will be Yokich. I think it should be honest. I give him beat an outside chance if he gets the one seed. I'm gonna move on to the two ranking my contenders. So again, to be clear up front, we're gonna rank the top five contenders in the East and the top five contenders in the West. To be clear upfront, contender does not mean power rankings. It does not mean what team is playing the best as of late.

It does not mean anything having to do with anything other than is this team, like if I was ranking percentage chances to beholding the trophy at the end of the day. That's all I'm factoring in when I'm ranking these teams. So let's start in the Eastern Conference. At number five, I have the Miami Heat. This is a team that has been near the top of everyone's list for most of the season. They were at the top

of the East for the vast majority this season. But I never believed in them, and so much of that centered around what they do on the offensive end of the floor, and it's starting to finally materialize. I was referring to that offensive issue as something that would plague them in the postseason, and ironically enough, it's ended up being something that has plagued them in the regular season.

So as of late, since January twenty nine, they are sixteen and eleven in that stretch, the Heat are twenty feet in offense in third in defense, So they've had the third best defense in the entire NBA since January nine, in our only sixteen and eleven. So all of those offensive issues that I've been talking about have finally come home to roost sooner than I even expected. So much of it. It comes down to a handful of different issues.

So first of all, is space for regardless of who has the ball, if you're playing Jimmy Butler, p J. Tucker, and bam At a bio, that's to three point shooters in jim You Butler and Bamata and uh and p J. Tucker that are below average three point shooters are gonna knock down maybe one out of every three or three out of every ten. Right, and then Bamata Bios I've laid out, has been one of the worst long range

shooters in the NBA this season. I know, when we evaluate bamat to Bio as a talent, where you look at him as someone who is a proficient player from the midrange, it just hasn't materialized this season. That lack of spacing has consistently been an issue for the Heat, going all the way back to the NBA Finals when the Lakers utterly shut them down any time that series

was really in flux. So from that standpoint, you know, like like it just especially as we go into a postseason series and we're looking at you know, them against the Bucks, or them against the Boston Celtics, or them against the Philadelphia seventies six ers, I don't understand. I don't understand how they're suddenly gonna be able to score. That's gonna be an issue for them throughout this throughout

this entire postseason run. Another huge part of this is Jimmy Butler just hasn't quite been as good as he was last year. I know the numbers look okay, but if you dig into it a little bit, his playmaking is dipped a touch from where it was last year. His percentages have dropped from where they are last year. He's actually below fift and effective field goal percentage, which weighs your field goal percentage with three point shots. And

his availability has been an issue. Not to mention, we had this big blow up between him and Erik Spoelstre the other day. Huge part of that is just the way that Jimmy Butler can wear on people over the course of time. This is something that we've seen everywhere he's been over the course of the year. So I I I put them at fifth because the teams below them I don't think have any chance at all to win the title. A lot would have to go right for Miami, but I think they're clearly below the next

four teams in this list. Number four, the Philadelphia has seventy sixers, so they since the Heart and Trade that these numbers are coming into tonight, by the way, because NBA does not update their stats that fast, So since the Hard and Trade, they've been ninth in defense and twelfth in offense. That's only okay, especially when you factor in the first handful of games. They utterly destroyed the Minnesota Timberwolves. They beat the New York Knicks twice and

put up massive numbers. They floated a lot of those metrics with a handful of easy opponents early in that schedule, and so from that standpoint, for them to be twelfth in offense, adding James Harden to the mix, it's a big disappointment. Now. So much of that comes down to James Harden in the way that he's been struggling yet his best game as a Sixer tonight. So much of that's gonna depend on whether that was an outlier or if that was the real deal, And so we'll pay

attention to that moving forward. Of one other really weird note coming into tonight, when e beat is off the floor but James Harden is on the floor. In a hundred and thirty nine minutes, the Sixers have had a minus two point three net rating. There's something funky about that group. I thought it was a big part of why the Sixers went with no Harden, no Embiid in that beginning of the fourth quarter, which ended up backfiring as Janice and Chris Middleton ran them over and made

that into a game. But I think the Sixers are trying to work out some details of how to use James Harden, and so much of it is like, dude, hey, James Harden just has to be better. He's got to be a better player. And then with Joel Embid, I just don't view him as highly as I view these stars at the top of the league because of his inability to handle double teams and because of how much

he relies on foul gdrifting. I said this the other day and I got in trouble, but it's it's literally a fact Joanna's Joel Embiid is not as good at putting the ball in the basket in terms of field goal percentage as some of his peers are. He is a sub fifty field goal percentage guy. When you compare that to Janice and Nicola Yokich and Lebron and Kevin Durant and how efficient those guys are if you don't

send them to the line, they're still making shots. And Bead can struggle a little bit if he's not getting foul calls in terms of his efficiency. So I'm just not as high on him as some of the other players at the top of the league. That's why I have the Sixers all the way down at four, number three Boston Celtics. So to be clear, I would have had the Celtics at number one. That's how confident I

felt about this team before the Robert Williams injury. Digging into the numbers, they were about a plus ten net rating with Robert Williams on the floor this year and about a plus four without him, So it seems like a big drop. A little context there. Robert Williams has started every single game he's played this year, and if you play your minutes with the starters, meaning the best players on your team, it tends to lead to some

better metrics in that regard. So I it's it's it's it's hard to properly weigh how important Robert Williams is to this team. The biggest, the easiest way that I would describe it is depth. We talked a lot about the Celtics defense. It's the big part of why I believe so much in them. They are far and away the best defense in the league in my opinion. They switch everything, they don't have to double but when they do.

They do it well. But if you take Robert Williams out of the equation Asian, all of a sudden, you have two feasible options for closing lineups. You can either go to Al Horford at the five and bring Derek White into the picture. Now it's Derek White, Marcus Smart,

Brown and Tatum and Al Horford. Or you can go really small, right and you can just take him off the court entirely, go with another guard or wing or like a Grant Williams or a Peyton Pritchard, and you know, basically switch everything and hope to overcome that with athleticism. Bottom line is suddenly taking Robert Williams and his thirty minutes a game out of the picture puts a lot on Al Horford's plate. And he's older and he's had

an history of breaking down in the past. So I'm just a little bit concerned about the Celtics from a depth standpoint. But at the end of these games, it's still gonna be Tatum and Brown, Marcus Smart, probably Derek White and Al Horford, and it's still gonna be a really difficult team to beat. I take them handily over the Sixers and the heat, and I think they're every

bit as good as the teams above them. I'm just king them below because I think their depth is going to inevitably become a problem for them down the line. Tatum and Brown look fantastic. They're both starting to shoot a lot better. This is still a bona fide title contender. I've just taken them down a notch from the best team in the East to kind of a little bit more in the mix. Number two the Milwaukee Bucks. So

they're eleven and three since February, counting tonight's win. They coming into tonight not counting tonight because the stats haven't updated. Their fifth in offense fourteen and defense sixth and net rating, So their offense looks great, but still that defensive end of the four is continuing to be a problem for them.

They're good stretches. The stretches of the season where they've looked like the Bucks where they've put it together, still hasn't been that world beating, dominant type of good stretch that you would hope to see from a team that's defending the defending champion, to prove to the to us that they can still do it in clutch situations. This year, they are sixth and defense. Like I mentioned earlier, that's your best evidence of them having a switch that they

can flip. I don't think it's enough for me personally to put them at the top of this list, but maybe that's your hope is whatever they've been doing in crunch time on defense is what they'll do when the chips are on the line. And then lastly, just be honest, you saw him amazing again tonight. One of two things happened in last year's plaoff run. Either he became a player who's as good is Kevin Durant Lebron or someone who's better than them, and we're gonna find out in

this postseason run. And he's that big wild card. And if he takes a big leap, if he shoots incredibly from the from the perimeter and from the freight throw line, and he and his playmaking takes a leap with everything else that he brings to the table, he's the best player in the league at that point. If that's the case, I don't predict that to happen. I would take Katie over him, But Janice is the wild card that makes

the Buck such a dangerous playoff opponent. Last, but not least, my number one contender in the East, the team I expect to win the East, and the only team that I think has a realistic chance of uh So, this gets tricky because they're in the in game right. If you look at where the standings are at, they're probably gonna end up in the seven seed because they're gonna finish eight, but they'll probably win that first playing game. So you're gonna put the Bucks at number seven, they're

probably excuse me, the Nets at number seven. They're gonna play one of those top four teams, whether that's the Heat, the Bucks, the Sixers, or the Celtics. They're gonna play one of those teams. I would pick them over any of those teams except for the Celtics that they have Robert Williams, which they don't. So that's how that's how

confident I feel about this Nets team. I think they're going to send one of these teams home early, which is really unfortunate for whichever team that ends up being. So much of this comes down to Kadi and Kyrie and their unique ability to be immune to space and concerns. I did a full video on this last week. When you have guys who are comfortable operating in the mid range, where their bread and butter does not involve putting their head down and getting to the rim, those guys are

immune to space ason. As a result of that, they have an exam they have an opportunity to play other forwards. When this trade first went down, I told you guys, I don't think they can play Bruce Brown and Andre Drummond at the same time. Well, I was proven wrong about that because for the for the most for the most part, Katie and Kyrie aren't operating in the pain, so there there they feel plenty comfortable operating with that

kind of spacing. So as a result, having Bruce Brown and Andre Drummond on the floor, that bolsters the athleticism of those lineups, That bolsters the physicality of those lineups, their ability to be successful in the glass and on the defensive end of the floor. In their last ten games, I know everyone thinks the Nets have had some They've had some ugly losses recently. I know that wanted to Charlotte the other night was really disappointing. They lost to

the Grizzlies without John Morant. I know but over the course of their last ten games, their fourteenth and defense, which I think is more than good enough. With this group, they're still dealing with some continuity stuff. These losses like the one to Charlotte and the one to Memphis. I think over time they'll be able to work out they This is again, is that this is a team that's effectively in training camp. If you really look at it, Katie and Kyrie are finally getting consistent minutes on the

floor together. There's a bunch of new guys in the fold, like Andre Drummond and Seth Curry. I'm not going to judge them for these little losses here. I'm going to judge them by their ceiling, which they've flashed plenty of times over the course of this last couple of weeks. They have a one hundred and twenty five offensive rating with Katie and Kyrie on the floor this year plus

eleven point three net. They've been been with those two guys on the floor, and they're gonna have them on the floor moving forward and the last but at least they are built to survive in a playoff environment. Kyrie and kd are offensive players that are proven to succeed at the highest levels of playoff intensity, and they have a defensive scheme that's proven to work in the playoffs. They switch everything, they stagnate opponents, and they have a

lot of success on that front. So five Heat, four Sixers, three Celtics, two Buck and one nets. Those are my contenders in these all right. So I've been told that Carson is back and his audio is working, So we're gonna bring Carson back on. Yeah, all right, I really like our chances again this right this time, Jason. So we are going to play a game called fill in the Lane. It's pretty simple. I'm gonna give you a prompt.

You're gonna fill in the blank at the end. So we're gonna start with the team you were just talking about, the Sixers, Achilles heel Is. I'm gonna go with James harden Um more often than not this season. He hasn't looked like he's looked tonight. And I think that players tell us who they are over large sample sizes, not short sample sizes. And I was really impressed with the way that Phoenix attacked him just in his first shift

the other night. They put him in seven pick and roll in isolation situations when you wear on his legs by making him guard, it has a progressive fatigue of fatigue effect as well, And I think that we have enough tape on that sort of thing, especially when you look at the rest of the Sixers lineups. When you have Joel Embi, Matisse Stybol, Tobias Harris, and Tyris Maxie on the floor, they are so good defensively elsewhere that you have to attack James Harden. I think that can

lead to fatigue. And I think this this team ends up going down with James Harden in single coverage, forcing difficult shots, missing them, and them falling short against a better offensive superstar. Is there a particular matchup that you think is really troubling for them, Like, is there a sort of because a lot of the really elite teams in the East this year, outside of obviously like the

nett feelssarily have that superstar guard. But is there like a team that you look at out there you think can really go out and work Harden on defense, Like you were saying, I'm gonna go with the Boston Celtics, so one Al Horford. Nobody can guard Joel Embid, but Al Horford does an okay job. He plays positional defense,

he doesn't fall for his fakes. He does a good job of just getting in the way and making Joel Embiid make shots like which we talked about is not a strength of his relative to some of his peers. So then on the perimeter, they're gonna switch everything. They're very unlikely to send traps at James Harden and pick and roll, so it's gonna be a lot of James Harden trying to beat guys like Tatum and Brown and Marcus Smart off the dribble. I think there are terrible

matchup for the Sixers. Plus the Celtics can get out in transition as well, which is a direct weakness of the Sixers. So I'd say the Celtics would be the team that would most handily beat the Sixers that they had alright, fill in the lane for me here. The nets best first round matchup is Oh, that's another good one. I'm I might go to Sixers as well. The uh I think they beat Miami easily. I think they beat

the Sixers easily. I think the Celtics and Bucks would be tougher matchups, but I would pick the Nets to win in six or seven games. The reason why I say the Sixers is one they the the the Nets thrive in that isolation basketball environment, and if they get into that type of matchup, they're going to have a lot of success. You've literally seen an example of a bit of milage they have to Harden didn't seem to enjoy having to compete with them in that type of environment.

And then again, it's just that it's that dynamic of isolation basketball and living in transition. And who are you picking James Harden creating shots from the perimeter or Kyrie and Kevin Durant. I'm going with those two guys, all right, fill in the lane. The Clippling with a healthy Paul George is firmly below Golden State, Memphis and the Sun's but actually has a has a puncher's chance to win

the title. So most of the season for the Clippers has been just maintaining their identity right because Kauai is out, Paul George is out. Everything all eyes are on the next season. And they've done that successfully. They've maintained their identity. Now I have no idea how in the hell Paul George is playing. I hope at some point we get a press conference where he kind of breaks down what

this whole thing has been like. Because for whatever reason, I thought, if you need Tommy John surgery, I just thought that was it for you. I can't believe just I I can't even imagine shooting jump shots with a missing ligament in my elbow. But for whatever reason, I'm happy for Paul George that he can come back. They have they I've said on on many occasions, the Clippers have the most modern basketball approach that I've seen in the league. They maximize their talent better than any team

in the league, in my opinion. So if you add Paul George to that picture, it just gives them one additional perimeter initiator and one initial of one additional perimeter defensive player. Just raises the ceiling, and like we see saw last year, anything can happen. That same team basically as it's currently constructed, made it to the conference finals. I don't see how that's out of the question for

them with Paul George available. What level I mean, if you're talking about, you know, the puncher's chance at the title, how great does PG have to be for that? How much they need out of you know, the secondary creators, because obviously for them to get where they did last year, it was like unreal Reggie Jackson. Where would you put the bar at there? Well, it needs to be unreal

Reggie Jackson and unreal Paul George. But you know, there's kind of it's like the concept of having the monkey on your back, you know what I mean, Like when you break through that wall, something happens psychologically and you start playing better. Happened with you, honest last year. Happened with Paul George. Last year Paul George. I used to

roast him all the time. He had lost five consecutive playoff series coming into UH, coming into his tenure with the Clippers, and it's like, you just something clicked for him and he just looked comfortable on the floor all the time. And we already know that Paul George and Reggie Jackson playing the way that they did last year in the postseason was enough to push the Suns to

the brink. They won that series in six games, and I remember two games early in that series, UH one in particular where they won on a I think it was the one where they won on the eighton lob uh of right at the buzzer. And then there was another one that they want. I think likewo like really close barn Burner type of game. That's one of those series where the Sun's won in six, but it was a lot closer than it looked. And that same Sun's team is basically what we're looking at right now is

the runaway title favorite. I'm not saying that they're going to be that that type of team, but that's what I mean by Punner's chance. If Reggie Jackson and Paul George get it going, of course, they're capable of beating anybody if enough shots go down. A lot of people are saying, you know, PG, without a ligament, you on your best day, shooting the lights out, you might be the better option there. That's what I'm from some people around the league. That's all I'm saying. All Right, fill

in the lane. The NBA scoring title will go to all Right, I think it's gonna be Lebron. The thing that's tricky with this is they're all I think Lebron's got a little bit of a lead now. I think he's up to like two tenths of a of a point in the in the lead, which is bigger than it's been of late, because all those guys have been jam packed right around twenty nine points per game for most of the last couple of months. The tricky thing is, with Anthony Davis coming back, is Lebron gonna gun as

much as he has been? That will be the trick. However, I think this, I think the scoring title matters more to Lebron than it matters to the other guys. Katie's got a bunch of them. Janice legitimately doesn't care about him, and Beat I think cares more about the m v P. So I think Lebron will understand the bare minimum that he has to do, lock that thing up, and I think he'll get it done. How much do you think

it actually matters? Like, is the significance of it mostly just that you know he went out there and did it in year nineteen exactly, That's exactly what the significance is. It's like the Lebron is too smart with this kind of stuff. I think the way he looks at it is like dudes are gonna be arguing at a sports bar fifteen years from now, and it's it's just one

more round. In the magazine, it's like after you've unleashed ten finals and and you know, and after you've unleashed the uh, you know, NBA's all time leading score, after you've unleashed four time finals, MVP or whatever it is. It's that other. Oh, by the way, in his nineteen season, he wont a scoring title, Like it's just one more bullet in the gun that gives that that ammunition towards his goat case. It doesn't matter for me. I couldn't

care less into my opinion of Lebron. Kind of is what it is at this point, but it's it's your You could sway some people with it, and I think Lebron's trying to fight for every inch that he can at this point. All Right, last one here the NBA player you would least want to be slapped by ish um Man. I'm gonna go with Joel Embiide. There was a play in that fourth quarter today. I don't know if you saw it. He's isolating Brook Lopez on the left block and he does a jab step and Brooke

buckles just a little bit to the side. And I talked about this in a video that I recorded yesterday. But when you're working in tight spaces on offense, if you can create a tiny bit of separation, it's rather than trying to go around somebody, you want to try to shoot that gap with physicality and try not to get pushed off your line. It's such an important part of operating in space and Joel Embid did that perfectly.

So after he does the job, step Brook buckles just a tiny bit, Joel just does a vicious power dribble and like just flies into the lane and hits uh Brook Lopez in the sternom with his shoulder. Brook Lopez goes flying and he ends up getting an and one. And I was just sitting there thinking, like, that's that's just brute force. And I think Joel Embiid is probably the great is brute force athlete that we have in the league right now. With Joannice, he's got the best

combination of speed and quickness and coordination with that. But in terms of just pure brute force would be Joel Embid. Couple that with the wingspan. I think if he loaded up on me, there's like at least a nine percent

chance I'd be knocked unconscious. What about you, Carson, Yeah, Well, Ebid was actually my first thought to you, just because I feel like he has enough dog in him and enough of like the nastiness, you know, because that's a lot of the guys who I You know, if James Johnson comes up to me and slaps me, I think that I'm done for, you know, because that guy is an actual fighter. He's a he's a pretty intense guy. I think, Yo kich you know, there's a lot of

weight there. The dude had knives thrown at his head throughout his childhood, grew up in you know, sambor Serbia, I'm not I'm not enjoying a Yoki slap to the face. I feel like Pat dev might, like, you know, throw a scratch in there, just do something really really uh Dison herble. But yeah, I think I beat is a really good choice. I mean again, he was the first guy who I don't want to slap from Joel Embiad

at all. James Johnson was an interesting one. He's just famous for being like a jiu jitsu's crop magaw something type of fighter. So the thing is the problem is James Johnson would hit me, and like if I gave him a dirty look, he would continue to hit me and then I'd be down for the count, so that'd be the issue there. Yeah, now he's got a deep bag. I mean maybe your slap. He's not as dangerous, but an actual fight, I mean, he's the guy you most want to avoid. I think no doubt. Alrighty, so we

are going to Thanks Carson, I appreciate you, man. We are going to finish up tonight with my top five contenders in the Western Conference and I got a surprise for you guys for number five, So my fifth most likely team in the Western Conference to win the NBA Championship and again qualifier. Up Front, this is not power rankings, This is not how I feel about the team. This is strictly ranking percentage chances that this team could win an NBA championship, and at number five, I have the Lakers.

So to be clear up front, this is a terrible, terrible team. But it's really this simple. It's Lebron James and Anthony Davis, a shrunken rotation in a playoff setting. Do you think they are more or what's more? Likely? That the Utah Jazz, who are basically proven playoff failures, will continue to bring back the same guys even though we know it doesn't work. The Nuggets, who outside of

Nikolayok have nobody. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who we've talked about at length, can't be a good team when they have all their stars. The Clippers, who, I guess Paul George makes it a little more complicated, but they're not and as good as some of these teams at the top of the league, or the New Orleans Pelicans, those are

your other options for number five. So what's more statistically likely that Lebron and a D get healthy and somehow managed to escape the play in and then Lebron and a D find some synergy and the defense kind of comes together and they go on a run, or that one of those other teams I just mentioned to do it, and I would go with the Lakers. To be clear, I expect them to probably lose in the playing game and definitely to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

That's what I expect to happen. But they have just a tiny, tiny chance of everything breaking right for them and them getting it done, whereas the teams below them I think have zero chance. So that's why I have them at number five. Again, not a power ranking, not how I feel about the team just chances to win a title. Number four. Yeah, I don't want to talk about the Lakers anymore. They don't deserve it. Number four the Dallas Mavericks. So their defense has fallen way off

coming into tonight. They obviously looked great against the shell of the Lakers without Lebron and Anthony Davis, but they had lost three of their previous six games in that stretch. They had slipped to six in defense. If you remember the the defense was a huge part of why they were winning in the previous wretch. They were guarding extremely well. They were making up for their lack of defensive personnel with a lot of scheming, a lot of double teaming,

a lot of trapping things along those lines. But as I said, that making up for defensive personnel requires a ton of effort, and effort is very difficult to maintain throughout the regular season. So it was inevitable that they were gonna slump a little bit. And they have the one thing that concerns about because it's easy to get excited about this team, right because I've got Luka don the ultimate playoff weapon. I've got extra creator uh creators.

Because now in addition to just Jalen Brunson, they have Spencer Dinwoodie is another kind of like alpha dog offensive personality that feels comfortable creating shots for himself and taking and making big shots. And their defense is better, So you would kind of add that all together to mean Puncher's chance to win the title. Right, My only concern with them is that their defense is kind of gimmicky.

It involves a ton of doubling and recovering, a ton of scramming guys out of mismatches because their defensive personnel isn't great. So I'm worried about really good teams and really good coaches being able to eventually scheme their way around a lot of what Dallas does. Number Three, I have the Memphis Grizzlies, So they have the best defense in the NBA in March coming into tonight. So all of the things that we worry about with young teams.

Will they be able to create shots in the postseason, will they be able to defend as good as some of the other teams in the league. That doesn't seem to be a problem there that they've been arguably the second or third, probably the third best team in the NBA over the course of the the last half of the season, behind the Sons and the Celtics. They're unbelievable defensive team. They have a ton of athleticism. Jaren Jackson Jr. Looks

like a d reincardnated. Desmond Baine is kind of like a weird wing defender, bigger, stronger version of Clay Thompson that's not quite as good offensively. And and just the crowd is incredible. And then John Moran sa bona fide top ten player in the NBA. I think I had him at ten when I ranked players the other day, and you know, he kind of he kind of has I've talked about this on the show before. John Marat

has some Dwyane Wade potential. He's such an incredible athlete and he's going to be flying into the lane all the time in this postseason run. And you know, reffing can always go one way or another. There's fouls that occur on every single possession. It's really just amount about whether or not a ref feels like calling it. And we do see that fouls get called less often in the postseason, but we've also seen that's primarily with the

Jankee stuff. They're less likely to call flopping in the postseason, They're less likely to call the James Hard and Joel Embiide you know, foul grifting type of stuff. But they are known to call stuff around the basket, just like you saw with Joannice last year and with all the foul calls that he was he was getting. So the wild card for the Grizzlies is if John rand Is gonna get a ton of calls on his drives to the basket, that just makes them a way more dynamic

offensive team and makes them a lot scarier. The one big concern I have for them is their lack of secondary offensive creation. Like I've said many times on the show, Jaren Jackson Jr. Is a bit of a bull in the title shop China shops, So he's gonna struggle when teams really scout and take away. He's easy stuff. Yeah, if you leave him on an island, he's gonna run guys over and get layups. But no good playoff defense is gonna do that. And then Desmond Baine is more

of a slasher than he is a creator. He's great flying off screens, he's great attacking close outs, he's great uh, shooting the three ball, but he's not like a stare you in the face and break you down off the drew ble and make plays type of guys. So that kind of leaves you with Dylan Brooks. And is Dylan Brooks gonna be productive enough as a secondary perimeter initiator to help spell John Moran. I don't think so, That's

why I have them down at number three. The one interesting wrinkle with Memphis that makes them a little bit more interesting is home court. So even though their second in the West, they have a better record than anybody in the East, So outside of a matchup with Phoenix, they would have home court advantage in every single series.

And as a result of that, when you look at Memphis and how crazy their home crowd is and the way that young players in particular feed off of home crowd energy, that kind of gives them another unique element. Number two at Golden State, not a ton to say about them because they've barely looked like themselves. They are the Golden State Warriors. Season has been cursed nearly to the same extent as the Lakers. The differences is they're

well run. The Lakers have had injury issues, but They're also a very poorly run basketball team that actively sabotaged themselves in personnel, so when Lebron and a D went down, they literally turned into one of the worst basketball teams in the league. Golden State because they are very well run, They're loaded with wings, their skill developments awesome. They've brought a bunch of young players up through their system that

have turned into productive NBA players. They've had terrible injury luck and basically have been incapable of keeping Steph and Draymond on the floor together for the last two thirds of the season, but in spite of that, they've still been good because they are a well run team. The main reason why I have them at number two and ahead of Memphis is because we know their defense is great and the Steph Clay Draymond trio is a proven playoff formula. Those guys are gonna be comfortable in every

playoff series. Yes, it's gonna suck that they're gonna have to kind of wrap this all together over the course of the last week of the season, but those guys have so many reps playing with each other that if there's one trio in the NBA that could do it, it would be them last, but not least, the Phoenix Suns. I'm not gonna spend too much time on them because I've railed on them NonStop on the show over the course the last couple of weeks. They are the most

talented team in the NBA. Not just they're not as top heavy as some of these other teams in the league. No one's saying Devin Booker and Chris Paul are as good as as Janice or Lebron or Kevin Grant or anything like that, but what they are what they are is down the roster by far the most talented team

in the NBA. Chris Paul and Devin Booker can hold their own in Superstar matchups, but it's also Michael Bridges and how good of a close out attacking wing and argue he's He's been in conversations for Defensive Player of the Year this year. That's how good Michal Bridges has been. DeAndre Ayton is way better than what he's been asked to do with this Son's team. He has a level that he can get to that he's been holding in reserve. I think he deserves a max contract. Cam Johnson is

incredible campaign is incredible. They have a big defensive wing and Jake Crowder that they can throw up people. JaVale McGee is an awesome backup center. They're far and away the most talented team in the NBA. Devin Booker has been playing so well lately you could argue he's right there with John Morant competing for the tenth best player in the NBA. CP three looks great. He looks way

better than James Harden the other day. And they absolutely destroy teams in crunch time, but like like lapping everybody else in the rest of the field, which would argue that they even have a better punch than the what they've shown for the vast majority of the season that they've been reserving for crunch time scenario. So I think the Sons are the most likely to win. I put Golden State right behind them, Memphis right behind there, then Dallas, then a big drop off, and then I'd go with

the Lakers. With all the junk at the bottom of the West, they're the one team that has Lebron and a d in their back pocket. That's why I give them a very slim chance as our fifth most likely team in the West to win the title. Al Right, guys, that is all I have for tonight. I appreciate you guys always for supporting the show. We will be back on Thursday. I will see you guys in a couple of days. The volume