Ladies and gentlemen, welcome in to the first Hedging the Bet episode of this calendar year. 2026 already hard to believe. I'm gonna be 20. And so is my cohost today, Ben Julian. Ben, how are doing over there?
I'm doing great, Gabe. How are you?
I appreciate you always asking. I'm doing just fine. It's Friday, January 30. Tonight, we have a of course, Ben gave me a little look because we're recording this on the twenty ninth.
Yeah. I was a little confused at first.
He realized in his head this will be posted on the thirtieth because tonight, there is a very important basketball game. Number three, Michigan Wolverines taking on the number seven Michigan State Spartans in the Bruslin Center. It's going to be one of the most important games of the year. Of course, they'll do battle again in Ann Arbor later in the year, but it's gonna be one of the most important games of the year in terms of Big Ten standings, conference seat or tournament seating. So it should be a good one.
We're gonna talk about what's happened this week to both teams leading up to this contest to kind of give some context heading into this game. Michigan best Nebraska at home. Michigan, of course, was number three at this game. Nebraska was number five. It's Michigan's first top five victory since 2022 when they upset number three Purdue at home. Michigan's 24 game win streak ends with loss at Michigan. Nebraska's 24 game win streak,
not Michigan's 24 game win streak.
And that's my fault. I must have said Michigan on accident,
and that
was my fault. Yeah. Yeah. And I appreciate it. And that's why we have you here. That's why I don't do a solo show. Price Sanford, which is probably one of my favorite names of college basketball. Closely behind Jamarcus Lawrence, which Jamarcus is spelled j a n m a r q u e s. So two of my favorite names in college basketball just right there on the same roster. Coincidentally, finished with 20 points, so clutch performances from them.
But, unfortunately, it was too little too late. Morris Johnson junior was 17. Trey McKinney, known follower of our good pal Jack Krzywinski, had 11 clutch points and two of the clutches points at the end of the game that ended up, you know, putting Michigan on top and Nebraska was unable to hit the three at the end of regulation to win the game. Despite this Michigan's statements or despite the close game, Michigan shot six for 26 from three, and I'm no mathematician, but that's not very good. And Michigan shot 23 free throws to Nebraska's four.
I do understand that Nebraska was missing some key players, and you talk look at the free throw battle, and you have you understand why Nebraska fans could be irritated on this game. Ben, do you have any thoughts on this game at all, or do wanna move on to the Michigan State Rutgers
game? Actually, one. I just thought it was very interesting how Michigan wasn't able to keep a lead. It was similar to the Michigan State game with Rutgers, but Michigan only held the lead when it was three to two, and then when it was 74 to 72. Yeah.
So Nebraska pretty much held it out all the way up until those final two minutes, minute, right, thirty seconds, whatever you wanna say. Right? So pretty much Michigan just had a gritty one right there. That was a big win for Michigan to end Nebraska's 24 game win streak.
Yeah. Yeah. For sure. And as Michigan's people who currently attend Michigan State University, it it was tough to root for Michigan, but it was easy to see Nebraska lose, especially after how the fan base and some of the players acted following the Michigan State Nebraska game. Moving on Michigan State against Rutgers.
They clawed their way back for an OT. I put an OT thriller victory. Realistically, it wasn't a thriller in OT. Michigan State dominated the extra five minutes, but up until that point, it was quite quite the thriller. Rutgers going into this game, heavy underdogs, they were a nine and eleven overall record going into this contest.
Rutgers held the lead for 95% of the game. So like you just said, you know, that's why you're the college basketball expert because you point that out before it's even coming up on the show. But similar to the Michigan game, the the losing team holds the lead for the majority of the game. Tariq Francis could not miss. That was very frustrating to watch.
He had 23 on the night. Felt like everything was falling for him. Speaking of everything falling, Jeremy Fierce, 29 total points, 27 came in the second half slash overtime, meaning he only had two points in the first half. I believe his career high going to this game was 23 or 24. I had to fact check that.
But Yeah.
He regardless, he beat his career high in the second half alone. That was a that was the stat that my sports director Joe Dez tweeted out after the game, so shout out to him. Cohen Carr and Divine Uguochukwu as one of another great name in college basketball. Hey, crazy clutch threes. Of course, Divine's was a little bit more important, but Cohen Carrs, I think, had equal value seen as he's not a three point shooter, and Jeremy Fears really put him in a tough spot by forcing him the ball as the shot clock was winding down.
And the final note here I have is Rutgers seemingly crumpled OT and just ran out of gas. It was impossible for them to keep up with this Michigan State squad. Another thing I'll add is Jeremy Fierce was in foul trouble for the majority of the second half and in overtime, but he was able to stay disciplined and play good defense despite being in foul trouble. Although on the Rookers' last possession, he kinda jumped. He fell for that Francis at the three point line kinda hit him with a pump fake and Jeremy Fierce.
Oh, yeah. Right before
Yeah. Yeah. Regular time. Yeah. So that was he was kinda jumping for joy a little bit there. Regardless, he missed the floater. It was interesting too is Cohen Carr went to block it. If Cohen Carr even touched the basketball, it would have been goaltending. So And it would have been Rutgers been right there. I think Cohen Carr needs to work on his decision making, know, just a little bit when it comes to that.
Already He did hit three. He's been hitting some jump shots surprisingly, but Yeah. Yeah. No. He definitely came out clutch along with Divine and helped us get the win. So Yeah. You can say what you say. Right? But Michigan State did win over Rutgers. So we're just onto the next game. Onto the next game, which is probably the biggest game of the season or one of the biggest games.
Yeah. And when Benson's us and we, by the way, we're not implying that we're on the team or biased the team. We're just saying we're just saying if we were the team so, like, you know, if we were Rutgers, we would be very frustrated with this loss. Of course, Cohen Carr, we talked about his clutch three, but also his attacking the basket has evolved over the years. It used to be kind of a rim runner out in transition, you know, throw it down, the full car wash as we saw against Ole Miss last year.
But it's kind of evolved until he has this, like, hop euro step thing that he spams, but it's really effective. Seen as when he when he brings the ball above his head when he does that euro step move, I mean, verdict you know, his vertical is the highest on the court no matter who he's playing against. So he's able to to keep that ball out of danger being blocked or stolen. So that's really cool to see Cohen Carr evolve through the years. I'm curious as I think there's a chance he would go late in this NBA draft right now.
If he can develop a jumper, hit clutch threes like he did against Rutgers, I could see him being a first round talent just based off of athleticism at this point.
A 100%.
Anything else to add about this Michigan State Rutgers game? Any frustrations, or are we gonna move on to the game?
Let's just move on to the game.
Sure. Let's do it. Let's give a little preview here going in. We have U of M at Michigan State, like I mentioned, number three versus number seven. And I didn't look at, like, the power rankings, but I think Michigan State dropped back to nine after that close game against Rutgers. But to be fair, Rutgers played a pretty good game, and they couldn't miss. So there's not a whole lot you can do that. I understand Michigan State had a brutal first half in terms of turnovers.
And And I just wanna also add, when you're top 10 in the nation, every team is gonna go after you. Right? They're not gonna take you lightly. They know you're good. They're gonna play as best as they can. Their coach is gonna prep those players. Right? So if you're Michigan or Michigan State, you just gotta always keep your head on a swivel. No matter if you're playing nine and eleven Rutgers or you're going into the biggest game of the big ten season, right, you just always have to be prepared.
Yeah. Yeah. And speaking of biggest game of the season in terms of conference play, Nebraska, UMich, and Michigan State are all sitting at nine and one in conference play. Going into this game specifically, Michigan leads the series all time 97 to 92. However, in the Tom Izzo era, Michigan State has a dominant lead 36 to 16.
Cannot overlook that, especially when Michigan racked up most of their wins. They were shoot still shooting free throws underhand. So and the refs were wearing, like, tuxedos and, you know you know you know what I'm saying back in the day. Regardless though of the past twenty five years or so of the with in the Tom Izzo era, Michigan opens as a one and a half point favorite. And that's a bit of a surprise to me, especially since Michigan hasn't won in the Breslin in well, it was like twenty nine hundred days or something like that since twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen.
It was a little bit surprised, but I understand this is one of the best Michigan team since when they went to the national championship in 2019 against Villanova. Over under is at a 144.5. The Vegas is expecting this to be a high scoring game. And as of right now, both teams are mathematically in the NCAA tournament thus far. That's our little preview of the game here.
We're gonna move on to Ben Julian here. And Ben's gonna tell us four four props. Sorry. Two player props in. He's gonna pick the spread and over under. Tell us what we should bet on how to make money this week. Ben, the
floor is yours. Sounds good. So I do think Michigan State will pull off the win. I think it's just really hard for a Michigan team going into the Breslin Center. Even though they're ranked number three, beating the number seven ranked team in in the Breslin Center, that's a tough task. Right? Yeah. Duke was able to do it, but I feel like Cameron Boozer, he went on I mean, he just went in overtime mode. Took over? Yeah. Pretty much just took over the entire game.
Right? And your best player and one of best players in the nation went o for 10 or o for 11
as well. That doesn't I don't think that'll happen again. I think Jeremy Fierce I mean, he's been performing. He's performed the last two games. Obviously, I think he'll perform again just because it is the it's the rivalry that Michigan State wants to win Yep.
Year in, year out. So saying that, I do think Michigan State's gonna win, but I do think the under will hit. Okay. Michigan State and Ken Palm has the best defense in the country. Michigan, I don't think their offense will perform as well.
And Michigan State's offense, it's the mean, they're not known for their offense. They're known for their defense. I don't think each team will score 72 or over, so I do think that's gonna go under. I don't think this game's gonna be a landslide either. I don't think it's gonna be another last year president center game where Michigan State just jumped the gun early and then won by 17 or something like that.
So I do think it's gonna stay close. Moving on to player props, just going over these real quickly, and then I'll elaborate a little more after. So Jeremy Fears, I think he'll go over on points. He's been averaging 20 over or over 20 the last two games, and obviously, he's been helping with assists as well. He's just been on a tear.
I think it's gonna continue just because this game just means more. And I'll take Morris Johnson junior on rebounds. Michigan has to rebound to win, and I think Morris Johnson junior is gonna be the one to do it. Either him, Adeymara, or Yaxa Lundenberg. They I don't know if I'm if I said that correctly.
Lenz Yeah.
And it doesn't matter. But Anyways, one of them has to give rebounds for them to at least have a competitive game towards Michigan State, and I do think Morris Johnson junior will do that. He is familiar with the Spartans being that he played at Illinois last year, so he played against them. So, yeah, let's elaborate a little more. Do you have anything to add on that?
Well, I I agree with Jeremy Fears and and that, you know, this is such an important game. And and you've seen throughout the year when when he's hyping up the crowd, he's an encouraging chance. Maybe he shouldn't as a, you know, perfect I guess, not a professional basketball player, but with NIL and your image and going into the draft, you basically are professional basketball player at this point. But a player that's fueled by hatred going against his rival that he saw last year, especially with the whole logo incident of me and everything that was, I think that there's no way if I mean, if if if he doesn't hit his over, it's not gonna be from a lack of shots or lack of opportunities. I think that he's going to take over this game.
And so I 100% agree with you, Ben, and you can, you can continue to elaborate.
Yeah. And another thing, a lot of these Michigan players weren't here last year. Right? Like, they didn't see the logo scuffle. Right?
Like, Yaxle, Morris, Elliot Kudeau, Adeyemara, Trey McKinney, they all So weren't here last they don't yet have that feeling of that rivalry I assume, right? Yeah. Dusty May probably does and he's probably trying to prep these players like this is a big game you gotta get ready, But I don't think they're gonna come out as if it's their game. Right? The game that they need to win, the game that their fans want them to win just to have a little edge over their in state rivalry they have here.
So that that's another point. That's why or it's another reason why I choose Michigan State to win this game.
I wanna quickly add on to that. I'm gonna shift to collegiate hockey real quick. The the the trend in college basketball right now is a lot of teams, especially big 10 teams are targeting European players, and we're seeing that especially on this Michigan team. And in Michigan teams of the past, Danny Wolf, you know, both Wagner are they twins? Brothers twins?
Yeah. Or not twins, but brothers. Yeah.
Brothers. Sure. Brothers from the same mother. That's the point. But they're from Europe.
And in collegiate hockey right now or last year, they opened up the availability for programs to target Canadian hockey players. So when I was covering the Michigan Michigan State series, you would have thought it would, you know, every single year, it's very chippy. There's a lot of fights after the game. You know, it's every single time the puck is stopped, it seems like there's a scuffle in front of net. And that just wasn't present this year.
And it's it's it's unfortunate that the players who are from Canada treated it like another hockey game. I'm sure head coach Adam Nightingale, you know, told this Michigan State team how important of a rivalry this is, but it seemingly did not matter. And I think that the same thing could be evident here, like you're saying, Ben, in this basketball game where if you have first year players and some of them are from, you know, across the pond, regardless of where they're from, they might not understand this rivalry. And I think that could be to the disadvantage of the Michigan Wolverines. Yeah.
Exactly.
And as we know, Tom Izzo likes a developer. He's got Yep. Carson Cooper, Jackson Kohler, four year players. Jeremy Fierce, third year on the team. Cohen Carr as well with his third year. So Yep. These guys know what this game's about. They know what they need to do. They've beat Michigan plenty of times. Sure.
And, yeah, overall, I just think at the Breslin, it's gonna be hard for Michigan to pull it off. I don't think it's impossible, but I do think it's gonna be unlikely. So saying that, I mean, Michigan, you have an you have a very good chance at the Chrysler Center. It's your senior day, right? Right before the tournament or right before the Big Ten tournament, I should say.
So I don't know. We'll we'll see what happens, but as of now, I am totally leaning towards Michigan State plus one and a half.
I love that. Did you have anything to add about Morris Johnson and his rebounds?
Not much other than the fact that I believe at least one of either Yaxil Adeymara or Morris Johnson Yeah. Will have to get rebounds for them to have the competitive game like I said before. But I do think Morris Johnson Junior will. He's leading the team in rebounds. Right?
Yeah.
So and it's not by much, but I do think him and Adeymara will get a lot of minutes just because we have the Carson Cooper Jacks or Michigan State has the
That's correct.
Carson Cooper and Jackson Koehler combo that will likely stay on the floor most of the time.
Yeah. And and you're absolutely correct because Michigan State is one of the best, if not the best, offensive rebounding team in the nation. The Mhmm. The amount of possessions that Jackson Kole or a little bit, but especially Carson Cooper creates off of missed shots from Michigan State that turn into points is just unreal. So I 100% agree.
I mean, one of these Michigan guys is going to have to they're gonna have to get on the horse and start rebounding the ball if they wanna have a chance of beating this beating this Michigan State team. Exactly. Yeah. And according to Ben Julian, there's gonna be more shots. Alright. Let's run through let's run through the four legs again, and let's get out of here.
Oh, wait. I wanna add one other point.
We're gonna add one more point.
Sorry about that.
No. You're good.
But I do think another valid point is that it seems like Michigan State, other than the Rutgers game, has been on a incline or an increase in just playing, right? Yeah. Just like they're playing better, they're playing or they're beating teams much more than they were earlier, a lot less close games obviously other than the Rutgers game, and Michigan ever since the Wisconsin loss, I mean they beat Washington by 10, Oregon by 10, right? But that's not the same Michigan when we saw them beat Gonzaga by 40, right? So that's another thing, right?
When will that or if that Michigan team shows up, I do believe Michigan will win, but we haven't seen that since the Wisconsin loss and then spend five games since that. So, I mean, you do beat Nebraska, number five Nebraska at home. Good win. Right? Yeah. But it's not it's still not that same Michigan team as we saw earlier in the season.
I believe this is probably the most anticipated Michigan Michigan State basketball game that I can remember in recent years. Twitter is a dangerous place right or excuse me. X is a dangerous place right now. I happened to go on the other night, and I was just perusing after the Michigan State Rutgers game. Lot of Michigan fans talking a lot of smack, and a lot of Michigan State fans talking it right back.
And you might not have seen that in previous years with with the how uncompetitive this series has been. Of course, Michigan State has won four straight matchups, and we're looking for a if you're Spartans, you're looking for another sweep this year, although it's gonna be tough to do against the top three team in the nation right now. Maybe not at home, but, of course, when you have to travel to Chrysler on March 8. Well, Ben, this has has been a very productive and efficient episode. It's not a sub 21, but maybe after editing, it will be.
What are your plans for this game? What are gonna be?
What are you gonna do? Probably just walking it with or watching it with my good friend, Jack Wajewski.
Ah, there you go. Yeah. Shout out Jack. Jack always gets a shout out on these episodes. So I don't know really what he does to deserve it, but I guess he's just a good person.
So Oh, yeah.
There you go. Alright. Well, I appreciate you joining me as always here. We were able to run through this. I'm gonna place this bet that you gave me whenever I can, whenever I get to it. I'll be on the road to Pennsylvania covering the Michigan, State Penn State hockey game in Beaver Stadium. So should be a fun one to cover. Of course, that'd be even better if it's coming off of a nighttime victory against Michigan, University of Michigan, but we will see. Alright. And that's gonna do it for us.
Of course, I'd like to thank Impact eighty nine FM WDBM for letting us use this gorgeous studio as always. And with that being said, stay sharp and keep hedging your bets.