How The CBA Will Change Trades Around The Association - podcast episode cover

How The CBA Will Change Trades Around The Association

Apr 04, 202321 min
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Episode description

On this episode of The Heat Check, Trysta is joined by Keith Smith of Spotrac to break down all of the news surrounding the NBA's new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

In this segment, Trysta and Keith break down how the new CBA will effect trades across the association, the potential end of "super teams", and why player initially had a negative reaction to the news. Tune in!

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Transcript

Speaker 1

I want to talk about the CBA because there's not that many people who really understand it, and you working for SPoD Track, and you being around the league for as long as you are, you're the first person that came to mind. So thankfully we already had this interview schedule. When you took the time to absorb the main changes in the CBA, what was your first overall reaction.

Speaker 2

I think they made it so that the middle class of the league is going to have some significant advantages in acquiring players. They made it harder for the most expensive teams to acquire players, but they also gave them avenues to keep players that they already have. I think the problem with the so called hardcap was always going to be, Hey, if we're the Warriors, because that's the

team everybody uses for as an example. We've drafted really well and developed really well, why should we get penalized and have to lose guys? And I think the NBA, basically along with the NBPA, said you know what, you're kind of right, but we still can't have you trading for everybody under the sun and signing a bunch of guys in that So we're going to put in some limitters on you that'll make it hard. And it's not

just the Warriors. The Clippers are in that boat. There's a handful of other teams that'll probably be in that position over the next few years. But it's we're gonna make it harder on you to do get new players that don't come through the draft and through minimum signings and the like. And then for the middle class teams, we're gonna give you a whole bunch of ways that you can go get players that maybe you didn't have

available to you in the past. So I think they're just trying to increase that parody around the league.

Speaker 1

There's a lot of people who think that this is a These are seismic changes that we're not going to really fully understand for years to come.

Speaker 3

In your opinion, how monumental is it?

Speaker 2

Pretty big. I think we're gonna see some teams. The kind of buzzword right now is what are the unintended consequences? Right? Because it's always you get into this stuff, you feel really good about where it is, and then one thing we know that these teams do, they hire really smart people who find ways to work around all the rules they put in place. It's a big part of it.

I always say, you know, the CBA is a agreement to make it fair, and then it's people's jobs to find ways to work around that inherent fairness, to give themselves advantages, to find loopholes, all those things. So I think what's gonna happen is it is going to take years for this to fully play out, because it's not like one all these changes are coming in immediately next season. It's some of these things they've already said they're going to

be phased in over a period of time. And I think that's fair to the teams because if we stick with that Warriors example, well they've already built the roster they've built. It's not necessarily fair to say, all right, hey, all the tools you have, you lose them all right now. Now you've got to kind of reset and restart right from square one. So I think we'll see some phasing

into some of these changes. I think the other part of it, too is we got to see how teams react to these things, because teams are gonna make different decisions than they might have otherwise. We may see teams say, you know what, once we're up and over this second tax apron, which I think sounds silly, So I'm calling

it the supertax because I think that sounds way cooler. Yeah, so once you're over the super tax, you're gonna be in a spot where, wow, you know, we really got to resign our own guys because we have no other way to get talent, or I think the other option is we're in a position where some teams are gonna say, all right, you know what, we gotta let player X go because we've got to get our books in order, and the only way is to start shutting some salary.

So we're gonna let him go. And you're gonna just see differences in you know, a roster building and those kind of things. I think drafting well, developing well, it's going to have more importance than it's maybe ever had in the league because having one cost control players is

going to be huge in those things. But these, again are changes we're going to It's gonna take us probably three four years, right into the middle of this six to seven year agreement to really start to feel the full effect of It.

Speaker 1

Was reported that there were like hundreds of proposals throughout the time. What was the NBA itself, the league trying to achieve with these changes, and what was the NBPA trying to achieve with the changes.

Speaker 2

Yeah, the good news is it seems like they went into this on roughly the same page with a lot of the stuff. The first big thing that they were really good with was the revenue split. That it's essentially a fifty to fifty split. It can range from forty nine to fifty one, but it's essentially fifty to fifty. Once you're good there, that makes everything else easier. I'm not gonna say it's easy, but it makes it easier.

And I think you know they were. It's funny. I was told wrecked by someone involved, was yeah, the one and done role negotiation was like, NBA doesn't want this, NBPA doesn't really want this, so why is this a conversation? Well, neither one wanted to be the one to say like, hey, we don't want this, because then they look like the

bad guy. But I think the NBA's main goal was let's increase some of this parody and let's make sure we are not getting into a world where, hey, if you're one of the most richest teams in the league for lack of a better term, and you are in a big market, you can just outspend everybody by a level that the playing field just is vast and separated. It starts to look a little bit like, yeah, we have a cap, but what difference does it make if you can just keep adding salary and keep adding salary.

So I think that was their goal. I think the nbpa's goal was, all right, we can work with you within that, but what we want to do is if you're going to cap those top teams on how much they can spend, it can't be that that just goes away. We need to push it back into the market somewhere. Because their end goal is now with the addition of a third two way spot, they're gonna have up to five hundred and forty guys in the league at a time, and it's we're going to take care of five hundred

plus players. It's not just about Lebron James and Steph Curry and the guys who make forty to fifty million a year. We got to take care of all the way down. And I think that's some of the stuff that they they they wanted, and I think in a lot of ways they came to some pretty good agreements on that stuff where it is all right, hey, we're gonna give here, but you give here, and that rebalances and we'll see how that rebalances the league. Ultimately.

Speaker 1

In the end, Draymond was very upset. He tweeted that the players got screwed. He said, I don't understand how we are the driving labor of this entire system and we end up, you know, getting the short end of the stick. What do you think if you had to guess, because I'm sure you know, there's a lot of things that he could have issue with. What do you think is there any one thing or a couple of things that would make him feel this way or have other players feel this way?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think there's a few things with that. I think the first was that was probably an immediate reaction because the first handful of things that came out were, Wow, this doesn't look great for the players. It was kind of that was like the Saturday reporting. When we got into Sundays reporting, it was like, wa, wait a minute,

they can invest in NBA teams and WNBA teams. They're broadening what they can be corporate partners on and those sort of things, and then when you saw a lot of those changes, like, all right, this makes a lot more sense. I don't presume to know what details Draymond Green had and didn't have. I can tell you I know I've talked to people on both the player side and the team side. They don't have all the details yet because this is kind of agreed to in principle

and they're still hammering stuff out. That's why we don't have the Elite full term sheet. And it's like every two hours we're getting like, here's another detail, because it's kind of all right, we finish it and go. So I'm guessing it was probably a bit of an overreaction

to the immediate reporting on it. And I think there's also a a this was personal to him because in a lot of ways you could call some of those immediate measures like the Warriors measures of like, hey, we can't have another Warriors come along, right, And it's funny because, and I keep using him as an example, even in the last couple of years, the Clippers have outspent everybody.

So I think what we run into in this situation with these guys is they run into a spot where it is, hey, like we want to you know, I'm gonna spout off, but it's because this is hurting me and my team and if I resign here, like we're not going to be able to go sign other guys and all these sorts of things. So I kind of get where he's coming from, because I think in a sense, he's just trying to take care of him himself and the guys he's most immediate with.

Speaker 3

Right now, do you think that the league does not want dynasties, It's.

Speaker 2

A good question. I think they welcome dynasties. Like kind of what the Warriors have been, which is the core of the team was drafted, They were developed by them. They kind of came and grew up together and came into prominence together, and then they've made really smart moves

around those guys to kind of supplement them. But if you look at their main guys, because everybody has a and then I don't mean to denigrate like Dante DiVincenzo and the Jamichael Green, but every team has guys like that, right, a guy they signed with the middle level exception, a

guy they signed on a minimum contract. But if you're the Warriors, other than Andrew Wiggins, which was shrewd salary slot management by all right, Hey, Kevin Durantz going to Brooklyn, Hey, why don't we make that a sign and trade, double sign and trade where we get D'Angel Russell and we preserved that thirty million salary slot, and then it was all right, now we're gonna move him on to get

Andrew Wiggins. But outside Andrew Wiggins, every single guy in their rotation they drafted, and they developed Curry, Thompson, Green, Looney, Pool, Kaminga. Those are their own draft picks. So I think the league is in a spot where if you do it that way, and I don't I hate to say any

way of building a roster is the right way. I think there's a million right ways, and there's definitely some wrong ways for sure, But if you build it in that way, we're gonna give you the ability you can keep it together, keep paying all those guys because we're not restricting you on paying those guys, and just keep going.

So don't think they're against dynasties. I think what they don't want to see is they all, right, hey, we loaded up in two years, and then we kept adding, kept adding, kept adding, and then all of a sudden it's you know, we've outspent everybody by you know, one hundred million dollars, and you know, we're we're just kind of I think they don't like the Clippers kind of run of let's just keep replacing and then all right, hey, this guy makes twenty five we're gonna turn him into

a thirty five million dollar player, and those kind of things. I think that's where it gets really messy for the league, and the league doesn't like that kind of team building because then it just looks like the rich get richer.

Speaker 3

Can you explain how it fundamentally changes how trades are made, kind of in the technical way.

Speaker 1

Sure.

Speaker 2

Yeah, So from the details we know right now, the kind of normal everyday trade between two teams that are well under the tax or maybe just at the tax line, that'll pretty much stay the same. You'll have a little bit of a range where you can work in. You might be able to trade a twenty million dollar guy and bring in somebody who makes twenty five million, and

that's kind of the range it's always been in. But for these so called super tax teams, the big thing is they can't take on any additional money in trades. If all the reporting proves to be accurate. So what's going to happen for them is if I want to trade a twenty million dollar player, I can only bring in twenty million or less in salary. I don't have that ability to go get somebody else. And that's just

gonna make things a little bit difficult on them. Now, I mentioned before, smart teams are gonna find workarounds, They're going to do things. What we may see end up happening is, Okay, that guy who's on a roster makes twenty million, we're going to re sign him for thirty million. Mostly so now we have a thirty million dollar trade chip and we can go get that twenty five million dollar player or a thirty million dollar player that wouldn't

be available to us prior. So that's the kind of roster maneuvering I think you're gonna see from some of those teams. It's gonna become a lot more about salary slots than essentially the players that are filling them. And that's a sometimes even me, mister salary gap, is like, that's a I feel gross thinking of it that way, because it's like there's still human beings and there's still players. But at the end of the day, I don't feel too gross because that guy's gonna make twenty five or

thirty million. So you know what kind of is what it is you sign up for that much money, you're probably signing up to maybe be traded.

Speaker 1

Yeah, what blockbuster trades for those who you know, maybe don't know happened recently that would not be allowed in this new CBA.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and there were there's a handful. So the immediate ones that come to mind this year are Kevin Durant in Kyrie Irving because both of those teams, Phoenix and Dallas would be you know, over the super tax or into the supertax, and in that position, they would not have been able to take on money, which both of them did in their trades to get those guys another Uh, you know, if we go back, James Harden to Brooklyn

is one even one from this summer. A team that's not necessarily super expensive, like Malcolm Brogden to the Celtics is another one that might not have happened. So I think we're in a position where, yeah, a handful of these these trades may not have happened that have happened otherwise anything that was even something as kind of low key, low end, that nice move, but no one really cares

about it. Like even like Mike Mescala to the Celtics right before the trade deadline kind of buzzed was they brought him in with sending no salary out the other way and even in or sending very littles out the other way and brought him in by an exception, and that becomes a one where wouldn't have been able to happen, even a small minor deal like that that was, hey we're gonna add some bench dep for a playoff run.

You wouldn't have been able to do those things. And those are the things where we're going to see teams have to have a different strategy on moving forward.

Speaker 1

So I don't want to be one of those people who puts on a tinfoil hat. But this is the first thing that came to mind as you said that Kyrie, vice president of the NBPA. Is there any chance that that factored in this new CBA factored in to Kyrie seeing the writing on the wall and saying, this is kind of my shot to get to another team, and therefore as well as Kevin if those both of those trades weren't going to be possible moving forward.

Speaker 2

Maybe I don't know how deep they were into the negotiations at that point that all that went down. And I tend to like anytime I think I have Kyrie kind of pegged, I realize I'm completely wrong and I don't know anything about the guy. That means, you know, one of the more confusing players in the league too to me. And I don't even necessarily mean that in a bad way. I just you know, he's just there's things I just don't understand with him. So it's it's

certainly possible. I think we you know, he may have been like, hey, there, you know, what I know through negotiations is they're tightening things up. They're going to make it harder on us to figure things out. But I think we're in a position where, yeah, it's probably one of those things where it's this just was kind of an offshoot, and I don't know how much he cared about that. I think it was much more other reasons

where he's like, hey, this nets thing's going nowhere. I can't get to the Lakers right now, but I still want to get out of here and then I'll figure out my next move after that.

Speaker 1

Let's talk about the ramifications though, because it feels like it's the death of super teams to an degree.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's gonna be very hard to put together a super team on the fly because and it's already kind of hard anyway with some of the things that have happened with the cap and the like. But it's really I think now your super teams are going to be more. Let's use Oklahoma City as an example. They've drafted really well.

They've got a bunch of really good young players, and they've got flexibility while they're still a quote unquote cheaper team roster wise, to add a bunch more talent in as they kind of build this thing up, and then what happens is they'll be able to build all the way up to becoming potentially one of these super tax teams.

And that's how you'll build your super team. Is you draft well, you develop well, you add talent while you're cheap, and now you've got your eight nine to ten man roster filled out with a bunch of really good players. A little bit of moves you can make here and there around that, but that's how you'll build your team up. I think the days of teams, Hey, we're clearing the deck, right, We're going all the way down to barely any salary on the books, and we're going to go get three

max free agents. I think what we've seen, and I think it's a lesson the Lakers have taught teams over the last couple of years, is we don't hit on the exact right three guys and then nail all of your minimum signings after that, because that's essentially all you

have left. You're gonna struggle because if those guys miss times or miss games rather all of a sudden, you're in a spot where you can't win because you're rolling out guys who are you know, fringe NBA players for you know, twenty five thirty forty minutes a night in too many of these games. So I think that's kind

of gone by the wayside already. But I think even more so, it's gonna be draft develop ad talent while you're a cheaper team, and that's how you build up to, you know, the next kind of dynastic type teams.

Speaker 1

What about players that are going to be super Max eligible and may not be exactly in love with their current situation. It feels like it's a lot more difficult for them to be able to get to another team or force themselves to another team, given how this new CBA is operating.

Speaker 3

Do you think that this is one.

Speaker 1

Of those situations where star players will end up signing shorter term deals so that they can figure out where they want to be in free agency.

Speaker 2

That's a good question. This is where I tend to lean to the history of things, whereas when you put the most possible money in front of a player, they almost always take it and right wrong or indifferent, and I tend to be a little bit more indifferent on it. I don't mind when a player takes a max contract and then turns and says two years in, I don't really want to be here. Trade me. And why I'm indifferent about it is teams do it all the time.

Teams sign guys and then they're a here into a deal, They're like, it's not really working out. We're going to move them, and I don't know why. Collectively, as media and fans of the NBA, we've decided that's okay. But when a player tries to do it, it's like, hey, you signed a contract, so did the team. You know, I also wouldn't have had a problem if the NBA, and there's been no reporting of this in the new

CBA yet. We'll see if it's something that comes out later put in more restrictions round and trade, whereas, hey, you signed a super Max, you're not trade eligible for three seasons of it, and you've got to play out more than half of that contract. Maybe that isn't there. I don't know. I know that was one of the you said earlier. There were hundreds of proposals. I know for sure that was one of them that was on

the table. But to answer your question is I tend to think when players really want to be somewhere, they'll make it happen, especially if that team really wants them to be there. There's ways to make it happen. One of the cool changes that they got rid of, but that came out just in the last couple of days, is the restrictions on how many designated players. Those are

tend to be like the Supermax guys. It used to be you can only have like two of one type on your team and two of another type, and only one could be acquired via trade. They've eliminated all that, so they basically said, hey, you want to get you know, ten super Max guys somehow on your team, good good luck, and now we're gonna limit you because you're gonna be able to pay you know more and add more talent around them, but you'll go nuts. So I think we'll

still see guys. I think if anything causes short term contracts, it's gonna be Every player knows the meteorite steals coming, and what may come out of that is all right, We're going into a position where I'm better off signing a two or three year deal here re signing in the summer twenty twenty five. Even though they put caps smoothing in, so we're not going to see one of

these twenty sixteen cap spikes like we saw previous. So I think that changes things a little bit there, But we may see some guys play that kind of game.

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