You're tuned into Heat Check with Triste Quick.
On this bonus episode of the Heat Check, we're getting you ready for draft tonight with even more draft experts. We've got two heavy hitters here combined into one interviews Raffi Obarlow from Locked on NBA Big Board, who I subscribe to, who I listen to all year.
I'm super excited to have him on.
And then we have another big heavy hitter in the athletics, NBA draft expert, Sam Veseni. He joined me and my co host Ryan Horvaught on bet MGM tonight, so I wanted to give this information to you as well. Really great insight, it's super hard to find this close to draft time. Super excited about having them on and providing that insight to you.
So let's go, Nick drop that motherfucking beat that should be Rihanna.
You want to talk some NBA draft I do?
I think you do.
With our man Rafael Barlow.
Let's do that right now.
Rafael, thanks so much for joining us.
Mit, how are you tonight doing? Good man? It's a busy time of year, but it's a good time.
I am so happy and excited to have you on. Thank you for making it work. I know that you're doing a bunch of different things. I need first and foremost to get your perspective on whether there's a real smoke screen going on in Charlotte, Because last year, Adrian war Janowski put out the day before the draft and the morning of the draft that the Magic We're definitely taking Jabari Smith, that all signs pointed to him, and then an hour before the draft things changed very quickly.
And he had to backpedal.
Is there a possibility that's what's happening this year with Charlotte.
Yeah, it's always a possibility. And the funny thing about that, I spoke to Caylo Bank Caro's mom and dad this morning at the official NBA hotel, and then I happened to introduce them to Brandon Miller's agent, and they just kind of had a little joking side conversation about it and how at one point it looked like it was you know, right now it's looked like it's trending towards Brandon Miller, but you just never know until the last minute.
And follow dad I mentioned it was probably like thirty minutes before the draft that they knew Polo was going number one, So it could be smoke screen, but it could definitely change over the next I guess twenty four hours or a little less than that.
So to you, Raphael, if you were to be a betting man, would you still take Brandon Miller.
To go to Yeah? I would. I think Charlotte is comfortable with Miller because he's more so a plug and play guy. You can put him next to LaMelo Ball and while a school it wouldn't be a perfect fit. Although some people may think that he's the more talented player, but I think Brandon Miller is the easier fit and more versatility, and he's a better shooter, which is one of the scoots biggest question marks.
Yeah, you look at the third overall pick, any chance anybody other than Scoot then would go third overall? And how do you think a possible fit with him and Dame on the floor would look.
Yeah, I'm not a big fan of that fit, and it could definitely cause a domino effect with Portland, but I do think there is a chance. I wouldn't bet on it, but I think there's a chance that, you know, Portland could really take a long, hard look at i'man Thompson also, so it'd be interesting. Just a few months back, we thought School was a lock to go number two, and now there's a chance, slim chance, but there is a chance that he could fall to number four.
You know, one of the biggest risers in this draft Raphael is Kobe Bufkin. I love him, I love his size, I love his versatility. A bunch of teams have needs that he would fit very easily in.
Where do you see.
Him landing, Like what would be his floor and what would be his ceiling in terms of like positional draft, and what do you think explains his rapid rise up the board?
Interesting. I had a conversation with his mom earlier today and we just kind of talked about how he started school early, and so he's really the same age as a lot of the freshmen. He's actually younger than his teammate Jed Howard. So I think teams are starting to take that into account that he is the same age as his peers, his freshman peers, but he has two years of experience and if he came into this season with all the hype that some of the other freshmen had,
then he would be right up there. And that mixed to be a lottery pick, which I think he is now, but he just didn't have that same buzz coming into the season. I think his floor might be Atlanta, and I've heard from multiple people that he is the type of guy that Sam Presty loves to have. But the big concern there is like where is their minutes in Okay? See, they just have a lot of guards there.
Yeah.
A quick follow up though, do you think there's a possibility maybe that Washington would take him at eight or do you think that they're going to go with a playmaking guard like Anthony Black.
I think it's a possible ability that they could take him at age, but right now it seems like Anthony Black is a favorite to go number eight to Washington. But I mean Washington could end up making some trades or some move also, so you just never know. I mean, I think this is going to be a wild and crazy night tomorrow. And it's interesting because this was a draft that people thought was really really strong coming in. But how often do you see a class that is
considered really strong. And you can say almost all the teams in the top ken outside of San Antonio are rumored to be looking to possibly move to pick or trade up or trade down?
You think Detroit tries to move the fifth overall pick. I feel like they would want to. And also, you know, who do you think the favorite should be to go fifth overall? Because for me, that's when the draft really begins, because I wanted it to be Cam Whitmore really bad. I got him plus four hundred. He was really chalky. Now doesn't look like that's going to happen. It looks like it's between Thompson and probably Jeris Walker. What do you think happens at five overall?
Though?
You know, I don't know if the camp with more stuff is small screen, Like they talked about some injuries, but he had an injured thumb, Like it's not like it's a knee or back.
So I have.
Somebody say that it might be smoke strings there. I was still taking them at number five. I mean, I would even take Cam at number four. If Houston brings James Harden along, I just don't think hardened and and Thompson would would be the best. It would be the best fit. But no, I think it's I think it's
smoked Spring. I think he's still in the mix at five The Jars, Walker talk is interesting because Detroit their roster is already unbalanced as is I mean, of course they can make some moves, but adding another four five to Detroit's roster would be very interesting.
Yeah.
I was wondering that too.
And you know, Troy Weaver said in his recent pressors that their entire goal is to swing for the fences. If you're swinging for the fences in your Detroit, who do you think has the highest upside at five?
Maybe Thompson nor I mean, I would say cam wickmore, but maybe a sre time. They could even swing for defenses with Taylor Hendrick. Taylor reminds me of Jabari Smith in the sense, and Javari was a guy everybody thought was going to go number one three hundred and sixty five days ago. So it's going to be a crazy night. But I think that Detroit is probably gonna ling with with more. That would be my guess.
What do you think it's a good fit for a guy like Jordan Hawkins or even a guy like Grady Dick, two of the better shooters in the draft. Where do you see them going a little bit higher and maybe falling a little bit later in the first round.
I think I think one will go in the lottery, maybe both. I mean, you look at Orlando at eleven and Toronto at thirteen. Both of those teams really really neat shooting, I really need shooting. Orlando was one of the worst teams in the league in three point shooting, and then Toronto has a bunch of wings but not a lot of wings back in space the floor. So I would say I think Grady goes to Orlando, and then I would say Jordan Hawkins could go as high
as thirteen to Toronto. I don't know if he gets past the Lakers at seventeen.
Interesting, I'm curious your perspective, which player do you think Raphael fall outside the lottery but you think ends up being the best NBA player long term in that non lottery slot.
You know it could be. That's a tough question because a guy like Nick Smith could fall outside of the lottery. I think there's a small chance Kante George could fall outside the lottery. But the guy that I'm high on I think is going to fall in the late first round is Gigi Jackson. And I think as far as his talent wise, he's a top ten talent, but he's just young. He reclassified up and he's started the season off at seventeen. He's only eighteen now, he's only eligible
to be in his draft by fourteen days. And to put into perspective, if Kobe Buffkin try to enter the draft last year, he wouldn't have even been mentioned just because he started off. You know, he was a young freshman, wasn't the most productive, while Gigi was productive as a freshman, averaged fifteen points per game, and teams are a little worried about his age. So imagine how I see it is. Imagine if he comes back next year as an eighteen year old sophomore, and I think he will be the
number one pick in the twenty twenty four draft. So and he was the number one player in his high school class before he reclassified up. So one hand, some people feel like trying to get to the NBA earlier was a mistake and may have cost him a lot of money on the front end. But a team could draft him in the late first round, maybe even mid first round, developing for a year and just you can end with one of the better players in this class.
Oh that's fascinating, great answer. I like you love Billa Coola Bali. He's been rumored to go to OKAC. You mentioned big question mark around OKAC is just who's getting the minutes? What do you think their draft strategy is going to be? We have about a minute.
Yeah, I've heard multiple people say Sam Presty, the general managers, wants to collect the most talent. And it's kind of concerning for some agents because they're like, you know, is there a guaranteed roster spot as far not roster spot, but it's a guaranteed minutes behind all the young guys that they already have. But I think Blaw is going to be gone. I would bet that he's gone before the better pick.
You think you'll go nine to the Jazz.
I heard nine, but I heard it could be higher.
Wow, wait really quickly, about ten to fifteen seconds?
What do you think the fastest bilaal could go?
I don't know. I was trying to ask even but I just heard a smirk and they said nine. He might be gone by nine.
Wow.
From multiple people got to look at the draft.
Positions, Yeah, we really do. That's interesting stuff.
Rafael Borlo, thanks so much man, NBA big Board. Check him out NBA big board dot com thanks so much, man, enjoy the draft.
Smorrow night, no problem, Thank you guys having me on.
Thanks.
Got to subscribe to his substack and his substack.
The guys that I have on this draft show, I buy their stuff. I think that they're really good.
I spend my own money on Raphael, I spend my money on The Athletic and Sam Bessini's coming on. I spend the money on Sean Hiken. If you're good enough and you've got a substack. Mark Stein, who won't come on the show because he's too bougie. Now he's got too much stuff going on. I don't think he likes doing hits. But I pay for his stuff.
I pay for like eight guys, and we've had some of them.
On the Good news though, we're gonna get a little bit smarter about the NBA Draft. We're gonna do that right now.
With Sam Passini.
He writes about basketball.
He covers the NBA for The Athletic, the NBA Draft, as well being the host of Game Theory. Sam so much for thanks so much for joining us, man. I know it's a busy week for you.
Yeah, how's going, guys, We're good.
Thanks so much for coming on I've been just hopelessly digging through every iteration of your mock draft because I feel like that's where the insight lies. I do kind of want to get your thoughts overall on a team that's been very perplexing for me, just at the tail end of the lottery, which is Toronto, Like what direction are they going?
I feel like there's been kind of some smoke screens.
I don't think they've been publicizing who they've had work out. Maybe some people think that they offered a promise to Kobe Buffkin, Like what's the deal there.
Yeah, I don't have a great feel for Toronto, to be honest. Similarly to you, sources around the league don't have a great feel for Toronto right now. I think that they are focusing a lot of their energy in the backcourt at the very least, that seems to be an overriding sentiment. And I think that if Kobe Buffkin was to get to thirteen, that makes a lot of sense, right A guy that is a well round prospect who can defend, you can really finish in the basket, you
can shoot. They have a lot of different potential iterations of what their backcourt could look like so, Buffkin does make a lot of sense for them at the very least, But Toronto is one of the tougher teams to figure out right now. I think that because they have so many balls in the air in terms of free agency, and because there are so many teams in front of them that could make decisions, it is a little bit difficult to get a feel for them. For sure.
We saw the market just completely flip right now to go second overall. Brandon Miller's minus five point fifty. You were getting plus one fifteen when we got off the air last night. Yeah, yes, you're a third overall pick. Now Scoot Henderson's minus four to fifty.
Is that what you have?
I know you updated your mock about two hours ago. Is that the way that you see it playing out the first three picks tomorrow night?
Yeah?
So look I have Brandon Miller at too.
Okay.
I think that it's very clear the markets are playing defense right now after what happened last season at number one.
You look at like the hold in terms of the difference between what your price is on Brandon Miller versus what your price is on Scoot Henderson, and it just is so abundantly obvious that markets are trying to be a bit reactive to what is happening in terms of the information game when things get reported, because obviously the market flipped last night immediately when Adrian Molchinarowski went on ESPN and said that Brandon Miller is currently in line
or on track to be the number two overall pick. Look, all of my information is that Charlotte certainly did not make the pick up until this week. Whether or not they have made that pick is unclear to me. In terms of Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller. I think Mitch Kupcheck literally had a press conference earlier today where he said we hadn't like officially one hundred percent decided, and we won't decide until tomorrow. So how much of this is smoke screens? How much of this is real fake?
What I do know is that Charlotte undertakes a very deliberate process in terms of all of their draft decisions. Mitch cup Check is a guy that generally cares a lot about the idea of the in person workout. And this is also an organization going through an ownership change. And while the Hornets can say till they're blue in the face that this is Mitch Kupcheck and Michael Jordan,
like they're the main decision makers here. I do find it hard to believe that, like the new ownership that's taking over on July first, would in Habits stay here. So I'm just a little bit confused about the overall tenor of the reporting on this. Frankly, I find it a bit odd that it's always seemed like a Leon or Brandon Miller Lean from day one post lottery. It
just hasn't been my impression. But at the end of the day, I think that, you know, it's a fifty to fifty choice and I don't know the way it'll go down. Like, I wouldn't recommend anybody better on this market right now, given how strong thehold is.
Yeah, I agree.
Another market that I feel like is very interesting in a team that I'm not really sure.
What they're going to do.
Troy Weaver said that they're going to take a big swing. They don't have a lot of He doesn't want a bunch, he doesn't want singles. He says he's going for the home run, which means the player with.
The biggest upside.
To me, that feels like a Thompson twin to you, what does that mean?
To me?
It would be Cam Whitmore, but I've gotten mixed stuff on whether or not Cam Whitmore is the guy there. I certainly have a Sar Thompson there right now, and you know wrote on Monday that I think of Sar Thompson is very clearly in the mix at number five at this point. Kim Whitmore of the you know, connections
to Troy Weaver myriad he played on Team Mellow. Troy Weaver recruited Carmelo Anthony to go to Syracuse back in two thousand and two, and you know, he certainly will have as good of intel on Kim Whitmore as anybody. And there's also the Thompson twins. And Kevin Ollie was heavily involved in the Detroit coaching search in large part
because of a long standing relationship with Troy Weaver. And Kevin Ollie is the head coach or was the head coach certainly at Overtime Elite, and you know, you would think that the intel is going to be strong there both ways. The other name I've gotten there is Jaris Walker. A pretty real amount I think Detroit has done a better job than anybody in the league at smoke screening.
Though this year. I was having this conversation last night with my editor and he asked me to like rank the teams in terms of, like the how impressive they've been in their smoke screening. I think Detroit is probably number one because I've gotten everything across the board when it comes to them.
Yeah, another team famous for smoke screening.
Deception, keeping you out, freezing you out, but making hell of draft picks and roster accumulation in general.
Is okay, See, like what is their strategy.
I've heard they might go after a Kobe Buffkin or a blau Cool of Bali, But then you're talking about, like how do those minutes get distributed?
Yeah, the funniest thing is that, you know, in that conversation with my editor, my number two pick was Oklahoma City in terms of the smoke screen So you're one hundred percent right there, Trista. It's funny. Typically with Oklahoma City, you actually do have like a feel like we kind of knew last year that it was gonna be chet Holm Grin. There were rumors ahead of the draft last two years ago or three years ago. I guess maybe that it was gonna be Alexey Pokoshewski that they really wanted.
They've let loose promises on campaign and Mitch McGarry before and this year, I think that they just decided to flood the zone with information coming from every single direction, and I've gotten six different names. I've gotten trade up, I've gotten trade down. I think that Cobe. The names that are most consistent for me are Kobe Buffkin, Derek Lively, and Blacool Labali. There Sam Presty went to France last
week to go see Blocoolabali. Kobe Buffkin just makes a lot of sense for them in terms of a well rounded player that they tend to value, also as younger than guys like Jet Howard and Jarris Walker despite being a sophomore. And then Lively is the name that doesn't totally fit there because they tend to really like guys that can dribble, pass, shoot at the center position. Lively is more of just like a defensive savant on that
end that doesn't really do that. So, you know, I think cool Ball Liam Buffkin are probably the two names that I feel best about right now. But again, Oklahoma City has done a great job flooding the zone this year.
Sam, Where do you think Haimi Hawkwiz ends up winding up? I'm looking at his draft position right now, twenty four and a half, and I've heard some reports that he might go a little bit earlier than many expect. He's going to be in the green room. It looks like where do you think he ends up? Do you think he goes before pick twenty five?
Under under Jimi Hakkas. I've heard anywhere from eighteen to twenty three. Maybe he gets to twenty five, like I think, pretty good shot he goes under that draft range. I've heard teams like Miami really like him. I think that Golden State really likes him, and I've heard the Nets also quite like him. And then on top of it, I've heard Portland quite likes them. So you're looking at all of those teams in that range there, it makes me think that it's more likely than not he will
be taken there. I don't know that that's a sure thing necessarily, but I feel pretty good about it. That's one of the better, to be honest, that's one of the better like betting lines I've heard for betters in this market this year.
What do you think Orlando does, Because it's very clear that they need shooting. I've heard commentary around that they love their backcourt, but everything that I've seen tells me that they can't. Like obviously, there's going to be guards there like Anthony Black at six, some reaches maybe for like a guy like Grady Dick. Like, if you were to say what they do at six and eleven, what do you think.
Is most likely?
Yeah, six, I think it'll probably I've heard a little bit of Taylor Hendrix. I've heard a little bit of Anthony Black. I've heard a little bit of Cam Whitmore, and I've heard a little bit of who was the fourth I think that might be it to be honest right now, but I think that they're looking on the wing and potentially in the backcourt at Anthony Black. I do think they like Anthony Black, another non shooter in
organization that pretty desperately needs shooting. I think that they are kind of well positioned to potentially move up and down the board if they want to, just given the fact that they have six and eleven. There are teams I think, like Utah that could very well decide that they want to spike up the board in order to get the player that they want, as opposed to risking that somebody like in Nsar Thompson Anthony Black doesn't get all the way down to number nine. That's the biggest
thing right now with these markets. I think that with how much movement there is potentially in that six through nine range five through nine range, including Detroit, it's very difficult to get a read on who's actually going to be making those picks right now, which is why I'm a little bit hesitant on anything in that range when it comes to the markets, because these teams all have certain leans, and if you change the team who's involved, they might have different leans, and that gets a little
bit complicated when trying to bet on these markets.
Do you think Lively ends up a top ten pick or do you think he slides out a little bit.
I think his range starts at ten, and I think that's a very real distinct possibility. The problem with that, again is that Dallas's pick has been known to be on the market now for quite a while, and I think they're going to take it down to Draft Knight and decide what the best deal is, or they're going to take it down to draft Knight and decide maybe, you know, if Taylor Hendricks falls, maybe they do love Derek Lively make a decision at number ten on what
to do. I think that, you know, if they do move that pick. The three names that I've heard the most in terms of teams potentially trying to come up and get are Derek Lively, Ballall Kulibali, and Kobe Buffkin. Because other teams believe that those three names are likely to go somewhere eleven to fourteen. So I think there is a pretty real chance that, you know, a team could move up for Lively at ten, or Dallas could take him at ten, but I think his rain starts at ten is where I'm at right now.
Interesting.
What player do you think will fall out of the light lottery or maybe two three players that you think end up having really promising, impactful NBA careers.
Yeah, Hawkes is one. I really like Hi may Hawk as quite a bit. I think that everything that Christian Brown brought to the table this year for Denver, that's exactly who Hi may Hawk as is. He's tough, he's just a grinder. He's gonna absolutely be somebody that sticks. Is a role player for a long long time. You know, I think that somebody like Leonard Miller is my upside
swing in this class. You know, He's six foot ten, can dribble past, shoot a little bit, has great touch, was dominant in the G League at the end of the year, average like twenty and thirteen and almost three assists over the course of his last twelve or so games. Really really impressive player who has not played a ton of high level basketball competition at this point. So for him to be as effective as he was at that level, I think that bodes well for him long term in
terms of his development. And I'll give you a third name. I think that somebody you know, like at Jordan Hawkins is a real chance just due to the shooting, he has a chance to go fourteen maybe, I think, but his shooting ability is just absolutely insane. His ability to sprint off of screening actions and set his feet, it's just unbelievable.
What ranger, What do you think would be a good fit for Nick Smith junior? Because you're talking about a guy that was the number one overall recruit in twenty twenty two, and now we're talking more about Anthony Black, where do you think he ends up? What do you think would be a good.
Fit for him?
Yeah? What is Nick Smith's over under right now?
Do you guys have one seventeen?
Yeah, I think there's I think there's a chance he goes there, but I think there's a much greater chance he goes over that. The only two teams I've kind of heard are like maybe fifteen and seventeen. Potentially the rest of the landing spots seem to be after seventeen at this point. Yeah, in terms of a good fit, it's just gonna have to be that's really willing to be patient with him as he continues to grow and
mature and develop defensively. More than anything, it's going to have to be a coaching staff in an organization that is going to be willing to go through some real growing pains on that end of the court. And he has to improve with ball in his hand. His hands a little bit loose right now, and he needs to become a little bit more functional in terms of his strength to be able to deal with bumps and contact on the perimeter, to be able to take the most advantage of his scoring ability.
Sam, thanks so much, man join the draft tomorrow night.
Yeah, thanks guys anytime.
Thanks for coming on.
Sam Vassini does work over at the Athletic. I'm looking at it right now.
More.
He's got one hundred and eighty pages right now for the twenty twenty three NBA Draft Guide, over one hundred and thirty thousand words. And he just said two hours ago.
I know I read the whole thing.
So here's what happened. Why I got all excited. So Haimi haak As, his draft position was twenty four and a half to go under, was actually plus one ten five and a half hours ago. Uh, Sam, two hours ago, Uh put out that report that it looks like, well he's going to the green room and that you know, people are falling in love with him. Now for him to go underpick twenty three and a half, it's minus three fifty. So that's why I was like, hey, can you do this for me really quick? I didn't get
to it in time. I'm not gonna do that. That's too big of a rest.
How fat How where was it when we asked?
It was before we asked. I didn't look a guy because I thought it was still plus one ten. It was plus ten under twenty four and a half. Now it's twenty three and a half minus three fifty to the under. I mean shop around for best place.
Sampasini is really freaking good.
He's the man.
That's all the time that we have for this bonus episode.
Many thanks to Raffie al Barlow and Sam Veseni and my bid MGM Tonight Night co host Ryan Horvaught and producer Scott Lynn. The NBA Draft is to night, so check the feed. There's gonna be a bonus episode reaction after the draft and more bonus episodes to go. Do not forget to download, subscribe, Please tell your friends, every single one of them, and follow us on so add this heat check and at trist to Crieck on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.
We will see you right after the draft