M QAnon. Wow, what great timing. Amazing timing here, So let's talk about it.
So first and foremost, yesterday we saw a series of unprecedenting swings in the odds for who would go number one in the draft. In the span of eight hours, Jabari Smith went from negative ten thousand, which means for every dollar you bet, you get back one penny, to plus three hundred to plus three hundred, which means for every dollar you bet bet you get back three dollars,
and then it went back down again. Eventual number one pick PLO Ben Carol was plus twenty two hundred, which means every dollar you get back, you get every dollar you bet you get twenty two back.
Ten days ago, never seen anything like this.
So to help us understand what all happened and how it might affect future drafts the league as a whole, please welcome Matt McEwan. Matt is editor in chief of the Sports Betting Dime. He has been a friend of a show for a long time now. He is also he has created their futures trackers, score predictors.
And other betting models. Welcome to the show, Matt, he so much for having me.
Yeah, thanks for coming on, man, it was what a crazy time it is to be a sports betting person in the business.
I had people even that were people that were.
Newsbreakers who wanted to get my perspective in terms of how this blew up on Twitter, you know, not just gambling Twitter, but NBA Twitter. So I figured, you know, for the people to get somebody on who does this all the time and understands how markets move.
So I wanted to have you on.
Explain to those maybe who don't bet or don't understand, you know, how these things go. How we can get odds change so rapidly and so wildly in such a short period of time, and not just in one direction where everything goes and stays, but then in every direction.
Yeah, so I'm interest it all boils down to money, right, And these sports books they aren't you know, they're in the betting industry, but they're not into making bets themselves.
Right.
They're not sitting here saying, okay, we're okay if we're you know, have this massive liability on Palo to go first. Now, their job is to even the money up proportionally.
Right.
What they want is, again it's not necessarily an equal amount of money on each side. But what they need is a proportional amount of money on each side, right.
And I say that because, hey, if you got.
Minus one ten odds on each side, sure you want equal money on each side. But when we're talking about something like you just said there where Jabari Smith was minus ten thousand, you know that's okay. You you you should have a lot more money on Jabari Smith than
you should have on anybody else at that point. Right, So you know what this this was just very interesting to see the money flowing right, And that's exactly what happened here was you know, and we live in this age of social media now and it's becoming stronger, and the insiders and the rumors and and you know, whether
they're real or or fake, they're flowing right. And all it takes, as we've seen, is one of them to get a ton of people on it willing to say, Okay, you know, I'm gonna throw some money on this side. I think it's it's got some value. All of a sudden, you create some steam. You got a ton of money coming in there. The book starts saying, we can't have this. You know, if this event occurs now we would be out a lot of money.
So what do we have to do. We got to start driving some money on the other options, right, So.
That's where you see this fluctuation happening, and that's why you saw it happen so fast, so wildly, Like you described there, right, there was just this massive flow of money that started about seventy two hours ago on Palo there. And you know, then Wadge sends out his tweet that it is going to be Jabbari, and all of a sudden, everybody's back on Jabbari, and so then they've got to swing it again because they're all of a sudden liable again.
They're not in a good position in where the money's lying, right, So it was wild and you know, for those who are familiar, you know NFL fans as well.
We saw this happen in the NFL draft too, right with Aiden Hutchinson and Trevon Walker. We even saw it.
I mean, if you go a little bit further back, Icky and Evan Neil, all of a sudden were the favorites to go first overall, right, and same type of thing. It didn't happen, you know, as you know, as abruptly as this one did. But as as more markets come online, right, more people are betting, there's more money available to be bet and just more rumors going.
Around, right. So that's that's why it's it's essentially the money.
So I'm curious what can betters learn from this the next time it happens, and is there a philosophy because it feels like seventy two hours ago there was no news that was the reason that Paolo was getting a lot of influx of money other than just the value of seeing twenty two twenty one.
To one odds.
Well, So, I mean, if there's a lesson here, and I mean I think this goes beyond sports, even Tristan, I know this is a sports podcast, but I mean, if there's a lesson, it is you know, understand the sources that you're or trusting, right, and it's you know, these insiders understand that they don't need firm, credible evidence to go and put out a report, right, they just need a rumor and and it's and it's a report.
So you know, if there's a lesson that you had here, I think it's, uh, it's one, you know, know your sources, but two, understand that around these drafts, nobody knows anything, you know, and and the teams themselves are are thrown out fake reports to try to throw each other off of you know, each other's scent, right the I mean,
you know, nobody, nobody wants to nobody. They they don't want everybody else knowing who they're taking first overall, right, They they would love they would have loved, you know, somebody to try to trade up to come get Jabbari Smith because you know, they wanted Jabbari Smith and that was their guy, right.
So it's it's just knowing.
That these drafts are very unpredictable, and and you know, when you do see twenty two hundred huts, it is worth a little sprinkle. You know, obviously we bet responsibly, and you know, don't don't put your life savings on something like this, but couple bucks at twenty two hundred at that point, I mean, you know, obviously you were laughing come come draft day, if you if you got on that train early.
How does this compare to other drafts that we've seen in the NBA, because it feels like most are pretty consensus number. Like I'm thinking about the Zion draft, there was nothing that anyone could do to get me to draft any to get me to put money on anyone but Zion.
And so, so, how does what we saw last.
Night compared to maybe what you've seen in prior drafts?
You are absolutely correct, right, I think this was the first draft in a little bit that we have seen a little bit of skepticism over, like who who is the.
True number one here?
Right and there there wasn't any clear sign that it is this guy.
So no, this, this this was unique.
This, this wanted to be very honest with you, reminded me of of certain NFL drafts where there isn't that top flight quarterback, right whenever you have the top quarterback, you know, you know who's going number one. But this reminded me of that where it was all of a sudden, you know there. I know Chat didn't really ever see like you know, his odds shortened a ton, but.
I think plus one eighty all the way down to one ten back up the plus four hundred up to twenty two hundred on draft day, So a little.
Some some movement there, right, but he he What I was saying is essentially he never became a favorite, right like he there there there wasn't this swing to chat Alveston. But at the same time, it very well could have been Chet as well. Like there there were there were three guys that really it could have been any one
of these, right, And no, this was truly unique. And this is you know, you get these betting opportunities very seldomly, you know, these these types of things, don't I mean the draft itself when it shows up once a year, and like you said, most are you know, consensus, there's a number one. This guy's going, don't waste your money on anything else, right, So no, I mean to your to your point before it's you know, understand when there is uncertainty and capitalize.
Do you think this changes how.
Information like the news information business around events like the draft, Like does this put does this put pressure on maybe making these non sporting sporting events illegal nationwide because they are so predicated on information and not something that's like completely unpredictable, given that there's already five states, including New York, where it's not legal.
So I personally don't believe we're going to see this mass rush to like, hey, let's not offer odds here.
This is just too much.
I think the you know, the moves we'll see are are likely going to be. You know, there's some states that basically shut shut it down, like twenty four hours prior.
Right.
That's that's one step I think we would see well before anything like that. The other one is just cap in the bets, right, like take you know, and they already do to an extent. You know, every sportsbook has the right to refuse any bet that you come to them with, and they do. You know, if you showed up with, you know, half a million dollars on Paalo, I don't think any sportsbook would have taken at.
Twenty two to one. They're like, nah, dog, no chance.
Right, nobody wants that liability.
Would they let me ask you a quick follow up question, would they move the line even if they didn't take the bet? Just like say I gets them five, I want to put five hundred thousand dollars on Palo twenty two to one? They turn me away? Do then the traders go back into a little powwow and say, holy shit, we there's something that might be Yeah, So.
That in itself may not move the line right away, but that's gonna put high alert on that line all of a sudden and you're gonna have somebody watching that line and watching every bet from there out that comes in on that line, right and and yeah, your your your next bet on that draft is not gonna be accepted as quickly as it would have been ten minutes ago. Right, So it may not shut it down, but high alert that that that's gonna get the attention.
Right.
So, you know, those are the moves I think we would see, right just and and and we already do see them to an extent.
They just may continue moving in that direction.
Maybe you're you know, they take less, you know, five figure bets, four figure bets on these types of events, right, I don't think we'll they take They take too much handle, you know, for for what it is, like, it's it's worth it for them.
Right.
So, Adrian woj Zanowski, as well as Sham Sharanya to the top newsbreakers in the business have been courted.
It's no secret they're being courted by books.
How does this change if woj is working for someone like points Bet.
Yeah, so, I mean that's an interesting one in in my opinion here, you know, and I think what what we all hope.
This means is just that his information goes to the books first.
Right, that's what they're paying the seven million dollars or whatever it is for.
And and that's it, and it's it's basically before you go public, it's hey, just let us know so that we can put our line either on alert, we can move it, or we can just take it down. Right, And uh so, what what does that do?
You know?
As a better it gives you less opportunities to expose a bad line. But again, as we've said, like this is only like the informational based betting events too, right, so you know, sure woes might have an injury to report ahead of time, right, I feel there's I feel there's enough people that are you know, privy to that information that you'll still get it in a reasonable time, you know, And when it comes to a single game like that, there's enough handle on it that you're not
going to instantly start moving that line. So you know, it does though, it will limit your opportunities to expose a bad line.
Do you think what we saw was good for basketball or bad for basketball?
I thought it was good, So I mean, I'll be very honest with you. And and just again from I hate to keep calling back to the NFL here. I'm sure you know I'm a big NFL fan. The NFL Draft for me anyways, and I think for most Americans as well, is a much bigger event than the NBA Draft is, you know, And the betting handle says so as well. You know, the Johnny Evello was on talking about the NFL Draft being at least three times the handle of the of the NBA draft, you know. So
I feel it was good. I feel all this because I mean, you know, every time someone sees a long shot win, right, their head gets filled with that could be me, you know next time. Maybe maybe that could be me. Maybe I could be that lottery winner next time.
Right.
So I think it's great for basketball. I think it will drive a little more interest in next year's draft and you know, specifically betting on the draft as well, right, which I mean that drives a lot of interest.
We saw a trade before the draft, Christian Wood got moved based on the perception, the false perception that Jabari was a lock to go number one, that Carol was going to be there for Houston at number three.
Does this.
Does that change like pre draft trades from got from teams in the lottery perhaps, like, how do you think this changes I guess how how teams communicate with one another.
You know what I mean?
I think that was always a concern, you know, like that was always a risk that that they were taking in doing so right. And I would you be willing to bet money that this isn't the first time that you know, one team maybe fed another team that information about what they were doing. You know, I don't think that's that's never happened before. So I you know what, I I don't I don't think that has any effect.
I think, you know, Houston maybe got burned a little bit, but I think they're gonna be okay to borri Ma.
So I'm looking at odds now.
For Rookie of the Year and I see that Paolo ban Cao is the odds on favorite plus three hundred. Why does this say he's in Detroit. That's so weird. Anyway, that's strange. Palo ban Caro plus plus three hundred. The longest odd that I see on sports betting dime is Jalen.
Duran at thirty to one.
I'm curious, though, for those who have never bet on Rookie of the Year before, what's the smartest strategy to bet on that.
So in in my opinion, here from what I've seen, and you know, I've I've been tracking these Rookie of the Year odds for about six years now, right, It ultimately the main factor is points, sadly, right, which you know, I think a lot of the basketball purists get a little upset over this.
You know, there's there's a lot that goes into the game.
That you know, and points is the sexy stat, right, and it's it's points, it's.
Highlight reel plays.
You know, how how many times are you gonna see Jabbari throwing down on on you know, some.
Some big forward.
As well as there they're recently, what I've seen is some team success go into it though, you know, and I team team success comes in when there isn't a clear cut super sexy point scorer, highlight reel most night player, then it defers to and and I mean I think that's what you saw with Scotti box this this past
year winning winning Rookie of the Year. Right, you looked at the Raptors and said he wasn't really key piece in getting them to the playoffs going from you know, picking was at four, Uh to up into the playoffs there, you know. So, yeah, he played a massive role on that team, and all of a sudden, I think for the first time in a while, we saw that come into play. But for the most part, I think you're looking at which which player is going to be on the floor and score.
I'm betting, I'm betting, yeah.
So I'm take me through the reason the reasoning for that.
Jabari obviously on the on the Houston Rocket's going to be playing alongside Jalen Green, a noted Chucker. Willing passer, but noted chucker can put up you know, ten threes a night. Kevin Porter Junior, another noted Chucker on that team as well, will shoot from anywhere.
Not a willing passer.
So take me through kind of your strategy on how you get to Jabbari.
So right away, look, you know, looking at the favorite Paalo there, I don't love him in that offense necessarily, and what I mean, I don't love his usage. There's a lot that like I think Orlando has this idea that they're gonna compete this year a little bit, you know, which I see you laugh at and I kind of do internally too, because it's the Orlando Magic, and we haven't seen them really do that in a long time now.
But there's a lot of players in Orlando that want the ball as well, And especially if all of a sudden, like Markel Foltz has like a summer where all of a sudden he finds himself again and now of a sudden, you've got just all these guys that want to get their own I mean, that's a full that's a loaded
roster of young, hungry players there, right. So I'm out on him and his ods are just a little little too short for me with his situation looking around elsewhere, Chat, I have fears over him just in the NBA in general. You know, his his weight worries me a little bit and and just how yeah, how thin he is, how lean he is, So I don't know what that's going to look like in the NBA, I have.
I have some doubts there admittedly, So you.
Know, look looking basically, I look at those top three guys because I think they stand above the rest and and and you know those those are, yeah, in my opinion, the kind of top tier guys.
And I do look to Houston, and that's a situation where you have a team there that isn't too far removed from being championship contenders year in year out right, And I think you have a like that that's that's still a proud team that wants to get back to competing. And I think they've seen they can't do that playing basketball the way they did, the way that you just
mentioned them doing. And I think there's going to be a very concerted effort from the coaching staff to get the ball into Jabbari's hands and to be a little more efficient offensively. You know, it's very efficient throwing down dunks. So I think we're gonna see a lot of Jabbari this year. I think we're gonna see the offense run through Jabbari a little more than some expect because, like I said, I know, I mean Jalen Green shot taker. I think Houston's I think Houston's gonna do everything.
They can to put the ball through Jabari's hands, and I think he'll be, you know, a little similar to Scotti in Toronto, where he's almost like the focal point of the offense. He may not score all the points, but I think the ball is gonna run through him pretty consistently.
If if Bradley Beal ends up leaving Washington, is there a chance that the line moves on Johnny Davis?
It's plus two thousand now, so wow, yeah, that's a great value. So would you take a flyer?
And also, on top of Johnny Davis, are there any other So I guess the two part of question, any other long shots that you absolutely love and then long shots that you would absolutely stay away from outside of maybe Mark Williams and Jalen Durn because of the usage rate.
So Johnny Davis isn't is a very interesting name there, right, And I I just have my concerns like is Bradley Beal really leaving?
And you know, I don't know.
At plus two thousand, I absolutely think that's worth a little sprinkle. It's not something that I would put a ton on there, because I mean, the whole Bradley Beal situation is just again it's another one of these like NBA draftings, Like I don't think any but he knows
the real truth here, you know. And and again I don't like betting a lot of money on things that I have no idea about, right, So when it comes to other long shots, and I'm just pulling on the board here, there's honestly, there's not a ton of names far down the board that grab my attention.
What about how are you feeling about Shayden Sharp in Portland?
So, I mean, funny enough, I was just about to mention Benedict Mathrin because I wanted him to end up in Portland. That that like that that I thought was a really ideal fit. And if he ended up there, he I think I would have been betting Benedict Mathron, Shade and Sharp. I think at twelve to one, same things, similar to Johnny Davis, where I think it's worth a
little sprinkle. I'm not I'm not putting a ton on on that, but he's He's probably as far down the board as I would look, which isn't very far, I know, but I like it. I mean, you know, Dame wants to win now, for Portland to win. I do think Dame's going to be taking the final shot every game, you know, and I think.
That is the best thing for Portland.
As you know, I think we probably all agree with We've seen over the years what that looks like.
So I do if you're.
Looking if you're looking outside the top tier, I think Shaden Sharp is the the you know, best candidate there for you know, a little bit of a long shot.
Matt, When are we gonna get Kyrie destination odds? Kadie destination odds?
What's up with that?
So? You know what?
Those are always interesting that you know the books. I do feel the books kind of trying to slide those in there real quick. And you know, don't They don't make it super public because.
They never promote it.
No, and there's a reason they don't want, you know know, first bet in to be you know, one hundred thousand dollars on some guy who knows Kevin Durant and you know knows where he's going. The books aren't going to open anything there until they feel they have enough information, right, and again who knows when that is? Yeah, if you had to ask me, I honestly, I don't know that we even see any Durant odds.
I wouldn't. I it wouldn't surprise me if we see some Kyrie.
But I think they'll come late, like there'll there'll there'll be an announcement and and and they'll come late.
So if you have an idea of where you think KD Kyrie end up. Would you then just place I guess back back in backing into it and just place future future bets on you know, futures bets on teams.
That's what I would recommend because I mean the other thing too that you're dealing with there is similar to the NBA draft, where I mean, if you want to lay a big chunk of money on something like that, decent chance they're not taking your bet, right, So I wouldn't wait if you have some credible information on where.
One or both may go. The futures market is a little better there.
And again maybe not even the the championship futures, but you know, look into division if win totals come out, you know in time for that, you know that that's in my opinion, one of I know it's not the lottery ticket that a lot of people like, right, but that's that's one that that you know a little more certainty around that, a little better probability of actually hitting that bet.
Final question, I guess, as you said, if you have more definitive information, then you know, maybe you can go ahead and place a bet on X, Y or Z because you know something that others don't know. How do books from your perspective, keep it, keep track on. You know who they can limit as a as a better like, you know, can woj bet, can Sham's bet?
Can Jerry West bet? You know what?
What where are we at in terms of the murkiness of I know Calvin Ridley can't bet, he cannot anyone, but but like, where's the line here?
So from from my understanding, the leagues are submitting names at this point.
Now again don't don't quote.
Me on this, because as you're live on the broadcast.
If it hasn't happened yet, it's going to start happening there, there's gonna be names and and you know, the the onus in the past has just always been on like the teams, the leagues, right, and the sports books were doing a favor, you know that, like the Calvin Ridley thing, Like they basically said, hey, like sure, we'll take your bet, but like we gotta go notify the NFL of this, right, Like all of these leagues are getting money from these
sports books. They're partnered with the sports books, right, So I mean they don't want that, like they these both sides want this to be a nice, clean, uh trustworthy, credible partnership here, right, They don't want this drama. So it's you know, it's growing into a partnership here of hey, here's here's you know names, do not take these or on the sportsbook side, if somebody slips in, yeah, Jerry West slips in and makes a bet, they might call the NBA and.
Say, hey, what's up here, like, you know, should should we take this? Should?
I mean, they can always cancel a bet after it's made, right, So it's it is it's getting a point where where the two sides are really going to start working together, and and they have to because you know, you you there's already enough skepticism around you know, sports betting and just nervousness around or what is this doing to the to the integrity of the game, right, And neither side
wants that. Neither side wants these questions. So it will it's going to continue just growing into this nice shared partnership of hey, don't let this person bet?
Okay, okay, yeah, awesome stuff, Matt, Thank you so much for joining us, sir. We'll have to do it later on this season when Kyrie ends up somewhere and Katie either ends up somewhere or he doesn't.
Yeah, no, my pleasure, trist I had one for you. I think I saw you liked my Toronto Raptors Christian Coloca.
Oh my god, that's a great pickup.
He is right, He's exactly what MASSI wants.
MASSI likes international players.
He likes players who are a long and athletic who can switch on defense. Christian Coloco I pegged Arizona as being one of the surprise teams of this year before they even played a regular season game because of what you know, you're seeing from the coaching staff coming from Gonzaga and some of these other guys. So I watched lot of Christian Cloaco and I was impressed by him. He's he's an athletic freak. I think that was a very underrated such a Toronto pick.
You know what I mean?
Yeah, yeah, And he didn't have to give up OG and andob to us in order to get what you wanted.
I'm really happy we did. I'm really happy. I love OG.
But I mean that was a big hole on the Raptors roster. The we didn't have that big kind of banger to play at center. And funny enough, I'm with some bachelor party here for the weekend, and a bunch of Raptors fan around fans around me.
Here.
There's people here who are more excited about the Ron Harper Junior signing.
That's a big one too.
So like they're they're they're going wild out there about Ron Harper Junior. And I'm in here at saying I don't not that I don't like Ron Harper Jr. But I'm the one, like I'm the quiet voice here saying, Hey, Christian Cloaco, I think is gonna gonna do something.
Don't sleep, do not sleep. He's gonna he might start at five.
I agree with you as much as I like what precious kind of broad he's He's a little undersized, you know.
Absolutely, at least you have someone who can bang with Joel embiid.
Now that's what they need.
Precious to two is cute and all against the warriors, but sometimes you need that defensive versatility against guys like you know, Jojo, against guys like you know the Lopez, Any Lopez, and.
Exactly he's great to throw on Yannis who you know, Sure, go ahead, darre him to shoot shoot the three, you know, but that length to put on him, Yeah, absolutely, I'm with you, Tris.
Go Raptors, Go Raptors. Have a great one. Enjoy the Bachelor party. We will talk to.
You soon, sir.
Thanks Chris for talk soon.
Thank you. This is all the time that we have. I appreciate y'all. We'll be back Monday with a new episode. As we head into free agency in Summer League. Follow us as the season comes to a quote free agency begins.
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