All right, Cathy's, we are back for another episode of Group Chat, number one podcast in the world. So I mentioned on Sunday that I had a flight. I was going to Dallas. I was literally there for like 14 hours. So I was in a part of Dallas called Frisco, Texas. It's like North Dallas, like 35 minutes away from visiting someone we work with. And he's Indian. I've never seen so many Indian restaurants, Indian grocery stores. I cannot believe. Texas is allowing the takeover of, it's literally.
I'm talking South Indian restaurants the size of Costco were in Frisco, Texas. Literally, he lives across the street from three Indian restaurants. So what's the industry? Because we know why Fremont and Saratoga and up north near San Francisco. It's entrepreneurs. It's people in the motel business. It's doctors.
you know, restaurateurs. I don't think it's tech. No, I'm sure there are tech Indians, but I don't think tech is the reason why they are. Someone settled in that community like 40 years ago. It's a grocery store called Patel Brothers. I've never seen it. Huge grocery store. So 35 minutes away from like the W and the stadium. Yeah. Well, the stadium's in Fort Worth. No, the Maverick Stadium. Oh, yeah, yeah. It's right next to the W. Maybe a little less. Because we went...
The last time I've been in Dallas was Super Bowl, which is probably like 13 years ago. Yeah. Maybe 12. Yeah. There were no Indians. This is, I'm telling you, it was. And we went to like the outskirts. Yeah. Remember with Josh? And by the way, it's all happened apparently in the last. few years where this guy particularly lives. But I was blown away.
Every fucking shopping center had an Indian restaurant, Indian grocery store, Indian something. Did you eat Indian food? No, we ended up at a steakhouse. That's funny. But I was, I was. Obviously, the guy you're in is in the commerce trade. The guy you met. Yeah, yeah. He's intact. He's in tech. Tech in retail tech. Got it. But his company's based in Chicago. He just lives in Texas.
But unbelievable, like just driving around, I was like, oh my God, this is the most insane thing. Did you spend any time in downtown Dallas? No, I literally just went to his house. Then we went to dinner and then I went to my hotel and left. Dallas is a very wealthy city. Yeah, you could feel that. Because all the nightlife groups have opened there. Yeah, there's obviously a lot of nice restaurants.
Um, hotels. I mean, I, I stayed at like some like regional Hyatt. So it was like, whatever. Um, but yeah, I mean, definitely see that like. I mean, it was fascinating just seeing how many Indian. It was literally like, I can't believe there isn't outrage. Well, they kept them in Frisco. Yeah. Don't cut the Dallas. I watch NBA. I don't see Indians at the Mavs games. I do. Do you? Yeah, in the stands. Not in the great seats, the good seats. Cowboy Stadium, there's no Indian.
Yeah, I mean, Indians like basketball. Yeah, Indians do love basketball. All right, so that was my observation of Frisco, Texas. If you're Indian and you're looking for an enclave to settle, that's not Fremont because it's probably a ripoff at this point to live in those areas. and you're like an Indian that can't assimilate, just go to Frisco, Texas.
You'll save a lot of money. Yeah. And with remote jobs. Yeah. You could probably still keep your tech job. Yeah. Yeah. You could do tech and, or if you just want to be like a, you want to open an Indian restaurant is you go to Texas. There's demand. Like I'm telling you, there was a restaurant that was 10, 20,000 square feet, like huge. I can't even name a 10, 20,000 square foot restaurant. It's Texas, so everything is big. Everything's big in Texas. Even the Indians are big.
So one other anecdote. I was just on the phone with a close friend who... They go to Europe every summer with their family, the kids. Yep. And he said prices have not come down. He said hotel prices are 40% higher than 2022. He just looked this week. But where is he looking? What cities? He was looking in Switzerland. Yeah, that's not a... But 40% higher? Yeah, but it's probably still down from the peak. It's definitely down. I'll tell you, I... have to go to Europe in the next two months.
And like one's around a conference potentially and the other is just to visit a bunch of vendors. And in the summer, like, you know, tickets are expensive. So last year I got like some points and like I somehow still landed up getting like a pretty good deal. but full price, I mean, business class seats to Paris or London. Paris is usually where I end up. was eight to $11,000. That's a lot. A lot.
This is what month? What? What month? You know, some between June and August. Cause that was the conversation we were having that July and August will never be cheap. So I just, I'm looking for June and on Delta. Nonstop, 5,200. Right. So July and August. Is recession-proof. Yeah, because families. Yeah, and you don't need that many families to fill up all these hotels. And I think what the airlines are doing now is... They'd rather cut capacity than cut price.
Yeah. Once you cut price, you're screwed. And so I was watching, I was actually on the flight last week when the CEO of Delta was on, Ed Bastian. And he's seeing that leisure travel remains strong, like bookings. Business travel, he's seeing a softness a little, but mainly like... They talked about government contractors. That business travel's gone. Yeah, it's done. But he's seeing generally pretty strong bookings. But then I talked to our mom.
on Friday of last week. And she said she had not, our mom's a travel agent, predominantly people that go to India. That's like their main ticket she booked. And she said she had not sold the ticket in two weeks. But I think in her case... It's less reflective of the economy. It's more reflective of H1B. Yeah, they don't want to leave. No, they're afraid to leave. Yeah. So I think, which is the smart move. It could be a one-way ticket to El Salvador.
Yeah, I think that is definitely going to be a big impact because I even talked to our first cousins. who all work for the Mag-7. Yeah. They're terrified. They're H-1B visa. Yeah. There's nothing that can happen retro. No, but what they can do, which has been reported, like there was a Stanford kid who was on a student visa. Yeah. He got two speeding tickets. They shipped his ass out. Yeah, yeah. And this is not like a one-off. Yeah.
My cousin, our cousin, he's like, I'm terrified of getting a parking ticket. I was like, sit your ass at home. Yeah. Get a Waymo. Use a Waymo. But the point is for the littlest violation, and these are non a parking ticket, speeding ticket. He said, you know, similar to Frisco, Texas. Their community is just all H-1B friends. Yeah. And they're all terrified because they think at any given time they can be deported. So, yeah, I mean, look.
i want to see how fast this guy was driving he was driving 150 miles per hour Yeah, but I mean, look. Most young people do stupid shit. And if you do stupid shit and you get caught, your risk is you're leaving the country, not you're paying a fine. Yeah, yeah.
Which is a different environment. Yeah, of course. And Marco Rubio has made it very clear. Yeah. Trump was smiling while he said that. Yeah, I think they shouldn't travel. I agree. They shouldn't travel and they shouldn't do anything. Four years. Three and a half now. Yeah. Almost. Three and a half. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's the reality, right? Like, by the way.
We know that if there's a reason why you immigrated to America in the first place, it's still, despite that, the best option for everyone. So like you go to these other countries and you break the law, it's far worse. in a Singapore, in a China. No, it's true, but it's just dramatically changed since January 20th. It didn't exist two months ago. No, of course. Yeah. I mean, new regime, right? So if... I believe they will relax the immigration things in like a year, but not right now.
I think it's good. Well, no, they're holding steadfast and it's still- Well, they're holding steadfast on everything. Everything. They don't care. They don't care. They've made up their mind. They're going to war with some of these topics. And it's happening to green card holders too. If you're not a U.S. born natural citizen. No, I mean, you don't have to be U.S. born. If you're a naturalized, if you're a U.S. citizen, you're safe.
the boundary keeps getting pushed this is the equivalent of like how everyone uh Well guess what, then don't break the fucking law. we're turning into the other types of countries. Yeah. I mean, but that's where the rest of the world is. We're not talking about a violent crime. Yeah. We're talking about nonviolent violation. Okay, but that's one instance of that person. No, there's like 50. Okay, out of the millions of people. That are being reported. Yeah. The Guardian reported it. Yeah.
I'm just saying that like I, we would, those people will all have lawyers. And their cases will be reviewed at the court of law. If it is deemed bare, they'll be... Yeah, we're just moving towards a third world country. That's all. Yeah. I mean, that's what we voted for. Americans have spoken. Yeah. His approval rating is still the same. CNN even reported they could not believe that his approval rating has not moved in two weeks.
It's a good spin doctor. Yeah, but I think the point is that there is a portion of the country that wanted this. No, there definitely is, clearly. So I think that, the way, and the interesting thing is that- The Democrats are still completely not taking advantage of leadership. That's the problem. AOC and Bernie is the ticket. They are rallying like they are running for president. They are 100% the ticket. Bernie's got to be in his 80s now. Yeah, maybe he'll be VP.
He'll be president. He was at Coachella. He was at Coachella. They had a 40,000 person rally in LA. Yeah. They are, if you saw the polls, Harris is one, AOC is two. Yeah, we need new blood. You know that if she's the candidate, it's a wrap. Yeah, it's just I don't even think it matters who the Republicans are on. Yeah, that's my point. She's too polarizing. She has to come to the middle Stephen A. Smith
Stephen A. Smith is the only shot for the Democrats. First take, he's doing the Clinton. Yeah, yeah. The thumb. But that's how pathetic... I mean, Trump's a reality star. I know, but like... That's where we are as a country. Yeah, so... You better get a big reality star. He's pretty big. He's on every day. He's too polarizing. He doesn't even like LeBron. We can't even support. I can't support him. LeBron will not support him running for president.
If you're a Democratic candidate and you do not have LeBron support. LeBron supported Hillary and she lost Ohio. Everyone supported Hillary and everyone lost it. I'm not voting for Stephen A. Smith. No fucking chance. He's the only one, I think, sadly. You're the Democratic strategist and you're like, let's get Stephen A. Smith.
That's your only hope? I like Dean Phillips, the Belvedere guy. He was great, but he's too smart for the Democrats. Democrats want... But you also... The real lesson is if you... Trump can go spar verbally with anyone and make them look like shit. Yeah. So you need a sportscaster? Stephen A. Smith can do it. Yeah. I agree. Pat McAfee. Pat McAfee can do it.
This is hilarious. Those are the leading options for President of the United States. Pat won't do it. Pat won't do it. Why? I think he likes his life. And he's, you know, Stephen A. He's also made a fortune and just signed a $100 million contract. So he can clear another 60 before he runs.
That would be so funny if Stephen A. Smith is the leading Democrat. He's not turning it down, by the way. Why should he? It's good content. And it just makes him more famous. We're talking about him. We're talking about him. Stephen A. Smith is potentially the leading candidate. He said elected officials, governors have reached out for him to run. He said that on his own podcast. By the way, I like that he's just going straight for presidency too, like Trump. Just go for it. What else is there?
If you're not funny and you can't just have the gift of gab, you have no shot. Not in this era. No. It doesn't even matter if you're smart or not. I think Steve Aston's very smart. You can't talk on the air for hours on hours on hours without being very smart. Democrats should be looking at a comedian. Andrew Schultz. Because I think Andrew Schultz would be a... He's very smart. Yeah. And I think he's moderate and he's pretty liberal on a lot of social issues. Yeah.
Comedians good because all comedians. that are at his level are very smart. So Steven Smith and Andrew Schultz against J.D. Vance. That's what we're looking at. I mean, J.D. Vance can't even hold a college football trophy. That was a big L. Yeah, that was a big L. At least he made fun of himself. A lot of people, even Republicans, were like, come on. I was embarrassed. Did he break it or it was two pieces? I mean, he clowned himself on Twitter, too. But yeah, I think like...
Andrew Schultz and Stephen A. Smith. That's what you got. That's a ticket. That's your ticket. You better tell our cousins never to leave their house. If that's your ticket, every immigrant should just stay. because they're going to lose by a block shot. Oh my God, that's hilarious. All right, moving on to the news of the day. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. The one... Good news that has come out of tariffs so far is...
Explain what it is. So basically, the loophole for the last however long e-commerce has been around was that you can ship... in this case, directly from China, any goods under $800 and pay no duties and no taxes. And what happened was... Hong Kong Post and China Post help subsidize the freight cost. So this is what gave birth to Sheen.
gave birth to Timu because it was a huge workaround to paying duties on goods in America. And then what happened was Walmart started doing it. Amazon started doing it. Fuck it. Let's just have... And we've talked about this. 50% of Amazon third-party sellers are based in China. They're shipping directly to the US consumer and avoiding paying duties. This was the biggest.
loophole of the last 10 years in retail. A lot of American businesses. So American companies are benefiting from it as well. Yes, Amazon. And Walmart.com too. But their .com is not like Amazon's. Walmart's business is in the store still. So they didn't get the benefit that Amazon... Amazon was the biggest beneficiary. And it was interesting because I remember talking once to Rich at Fashion Nova. who is a very large e-commerce business based out of LA.
And I asked him, I was like, why don't you lobby against this? This is your business. You're doing billions of dollars. Why don't you do this? He's like, you know who I'm lobbying against? I go, who? He goes, Amazon. He's like, I wasn't lobbying against Sheen. I wasn't lobbying against Timu. It was Amazon that was benefiting the most from it.
But what happened was so many American businesses got crushed because it was cheaper to buy from these sites. Yeah, like Forever 21 went bankrupt. Yeah, so many companies suffered, right? And what happened was... in this new tariff chaos. They just taxed their shit out of it. I think it's like, in some cases, $75 a shipment. Yeah. Like Timu in the app store has fallen off a cliff. Timu has cut all their Google spend. Yeah. I had heard.
The last two years, the number one spender on Facebook and Google was fucking Timu. Like someone said that Facebook, their spend was like four or five billion dollars. Yeah. And so that's gone. which has a secondary impact on Facebook and Google. Revenue is missed. I've heard that advertising, the rumors, just in little chats I'm in, that...
Cost per thousand impressions on Facebook and Google have plummeted because Timu stopped advertising. Oh, so if you're a D2C company, you might have an opportunity. Yeah, depending on who you're targeting. you may have an opportunity to scale your business right now. So that's an interesting thing. That's just anecdotal. I haven't seen it myself, but I have heard rumors that ad costs have plummeted in the last two weeks. But in this, you see...
The impact, like, I don't know if there's any justification to allow. Timu and Sheen to continue to do what they do, drop shipping from China to America without duties. As long as they pay duties, I think the business model is great. I don't think it should be fair to an American retailer to have to pay duties on the goods and everyone else gets to escape it. But I also don't think you need to overtax them. Right now, they're going to punish them to the ground. But I think it should be...
20, whatever, whatever the duty is. If it's 50%, 100%, it should be fair for everyone. So when does it go into effect? May 2nd. Okay. So they have two weeks. So they already cut their spend. Who? Timu. Oh, they know. And Sheen sent out an email today saying our prices will go up as of April 29th. Because those goods will get shipped after the law changes. So look, I think the problem is that more than likely...
The other issue is how it's going to be collected. Because I think the big issue is if you think about how many packages are coming directly from China to America, you need a system to collect. the duties. Because historically, the way duties were done was either the brand, the seller, like if we shipped to Europe, you could subsidize the duties for the customer. Or you could pass along the savings where you're charging the 30% to land the goods in Europe. to the European customer.
They pay the duties up front. Or you get a package and DHL says, you owe money. You owe me 30 bucks.
to get these goods what this creates is a black market and how to get these goods out they can't do it at the scale they're doing right now well definitely for sheen and timu i don't think they can participate smaller brands can participate yeah like if you're just willing to 10 20 million in revenue yeah bounce it to vietnam and ship it but yeah and that that's what i'm most curious about because
I think Vietnam was cutting a deal or about to cut a deal. Vietnam's going to cut a deal. Yeah. They already said. Because the shoes, right? Yeah. How do you police that? Because right now- Like we know just from being t-shirt manufacturers for years. would get blanks from China. Yeah.
And then relabel them and then get them in the U.S. under NAFTA. Yeah. So I think that's always been happening. But I do think... making it an even playing field for like, I think Sheen and Timu are going to exist and they're still going to be great businesses and they're going to be fine. But just pay the duty. If you have to pass it along to the consumer, so be it. Let the consumer decide if paying two, three extra dollars, my gut tells me...
that it doesn't impact the consumer as badly as we think. I think once the dust settles on tariffs... It'll be fine. The goods are going to go up in price. There's no doubt. But at least then an American retailer can compete with them. Because if you look at the prices on Teemu, you can't compete. Yeah, it's like $4 for a pair of jeans. Anything. $4 for anything. And it's buy now and pay later. It's a dollar a week.
I saw last year. I think I talked about it on the podcast. You could panhandle on the corner of any street and get a dollar. Yes. You can get way more. I'm handing out dollars all the time. I think, I think. If it's executed correctly, it levels the playing field for American brands. There are also a lot of D2C businesses that started testing this. Hey, fuck it. You know, like keen.
ships directly from factories all over the world. So maybe they don't ship from China. Maybe they ship from Portugal or Italy or whatever it is. But I do think that loophole had to be closed. It was just unfair. Yeah, no, I agree. We've been saying this for years. There's no question. I do think... The uncertainty, I mean, Powell said it today. He had a press conference.
And he's just like, we have no idea where tariffs are going to land because no one understands what the administration is going to do. And within the administration, no one even understands. It's just whatever Trump thinks on a given day. And he said it's going to be inflationary no matter what. So the supply chain cars is going to be disrupted for years. Yeah. I think. Hold on to your car. You can look at the markets. They responded pretty violently. Well, what's interesting is he also said,
We don't have to do anything. Economy is still strong. So that I think is what spooked everyone where he's like, everyone's expecting them to cut rate. And it seems as though, and he can't hint that he would because markets would have gone. The betting markets are baking in rate cuts. A June cut. Even potentially May.
Yeah, I just don't, there's not enough economic data yet, right? Like you need- It's the bond market which will lead whether the Fed, and the tenure actually went down, which is not good for anyone rooting for rate cuts. I know, that's the problem is that in his perspective, he's like, I don't need to give you a rate cut.
And he also kind of stood up to the president, which I'm... Well, he has been. He's always been. And he said, I'm not going to be influenced by politicians. This is an independent... Does he have 10 months left? A year left? I think it has a year left. Because Basant has said we're interviewing people right now. We have a short list. Whoever that guy's going to be. Day one. Oh, yeah. Cutting prices.
Until 2026, unless he resigns or is replaced before that time. Which I don't think they said they're not replacing him. Even Besant said they're not. They're going to let him do his term. But what is 2026 when? It just says typically his term, his current term would typically run until 2026. All right. So let's assume halfway through 26. He's got a year. I don't think he lasts a year. I think he lasts a year.
Like the rest of this year? Yeah. I don't think he's going to quit. He's not going to quit. But I don't think Trump, unless he just refuses, he has to lower interest rates. Because, you know, he also said the debt is unsustainable. That tells me that he knows they need to refi the debt. So I got to throw these fuckers a bone. Yeah. That to me is the only other sign that you got to make a move.
Right. Yeah. The markets are spooked again. Yeah. It'll bounce. I think we're just going to trade sideways. Yeah. If I'd like to guess. Yeah. Obviously, the highest performing asset year to date is gold. 30%. What financial advisor in January would have told their clients buy gold? Because the S&P is down. I signed Google's down 20%. Apple's down 20%. NVIDIA is down much more than that. and just say like...
Hey, you guys should just buy gold. Yeah. Because I think everyone thought interest rate cuts were coming. Trump's going to- Gilded age. Yeah. And he went the other way. I talked to our mutual friend who's a senior banker in consumer and healthcare. And I asked him like,
What's M&A like? He goes, very tough. There's nothing's getting done. Yeah. Although Figma filed. Figma filed. I think if you're a hot company, I mean, OpenAI bought a company today. I've never even heard of this company, Windsurf, for $3 billion. Yeah, I think if you're AI and you have actual moats, you're insulated from all the noise. Yeah. But I do think general uncertainty cripples markets in terms of financings, fundraising, IPOs, M&A, and Figma is going to be a great test.
Well, they had an acquisition offer from Adobe. Which they signed. Then it got killed. And that was $20 billion. So that's going to be the benchmark. Do they exceed 20 billion in the IPO market? Yeah. It's CoreWeave. I know we know nothing about CoreWeave. CoreWeave is holding its own. It's still at IPO price. It's just under IPO. Yeah. It's at 40 bucks still, which is unbelievable. That's being propped up. Yeah. That's being propped up and Figma.
Big one will be propped up. It's important that that does well. Well, it's important for tech IPOs. Yeah. So prop it up. Because everyone that I know, my close friends that are... In tech, at least, they said the environment is pretty tough.
Because tech is a risk-on asset. Yeah, yeah. That for sure is like... and people don't like uncertainty that's the issue we have no idea what he's going to do next yeah exactly Speaking of uncertainty, when you think about what you assume is going to continue to do well, no matter what, is the luxury market. And LVMH being the leader in this space, I think it's always very interesting to see what they report. And across the board, they...
Not just in China, but China is very soft in the luxury market. Yeah. And I think the Chinese customers looking for more discount and I see it in my business. where we have a lot of interest from Chinese customers on off-price goods, which did not exist. the last couple years. And so that tells you where their customers, their customers looking for a deal.
carrying these people do not discount, refuse to discount. Right. Right. That's Hermes. You just do not see discounted goods. It's not in their business model. So they always hold price. And what's interesting is. Like you saw softness in Asia, across the board in Asia. You're finally seeing softness in North America, but nowhere near what Asia is. Like that is where they're getting hurt the most.
And I would assume given the last month, there's no way Chinese people are spending money. Like the luxury market. Yeah, because... Think about a factory owner. Your business is going to fall off a cliff. Yeah, literally. And. I think a lot of the wealth that was created in China was clearly manufacturing. And now your demand from America has got to be down, what, 30%, 40%?
I know what's interesting is I saw this talk track that Chinese factories can make up the business elsewhere. You can't. You can't. That's a joke. The American consumer is king. Too big and fat. 80% of our GDP is consumption. I mean, especially if no one's going to travel now. That's the contrast, LVMH being down because you're such a massive company. It makes sense because at scale, you need millions of people to buy your goods. Switzerland, you need 5,000 families. Maybe not any of that.
Or Paris or... Paris is a big city too. No, but if you have 100 to 200,000 families that can always afford to go to these cities during July and August, then you're fine. Yeah, that's fine. But the interesting thing about LVMH, Brunello Cuccinelli up double digits in Q1. What's the reason? I think it's just... I don't know if you ever go into their stores. Which stores? Puccinelli. No, never been.
Like both Brunello Cuccinelli right now and Laura Piana, the product is just on fire. So it's full collection. full collections. I mean, it's like, it is quiet luxury to a T. And I would say that if you're extremely wealthy right now, quiet luxury is the route to go. You do not want to be showing off wealth right now. So, you know, people are...
I was at a sample sale in New York, someone that we work with. And I walked into their sample sale. In the back, he's like, I got a rack at Cuccinelli. 75 off if you want to buy anything. I was like, oh, 75 off? 75 off a $12,000 jacket. So it's like still way out of reality price range to buy anything. But I think it tells you that like the ultra rich.
Like there's rich people and there's ultra rich people and ultra rich where Cuccinelli and Laura Piana. Yeah. I think the ultra rich are undefeated, but they're just, that's a very small group of people. Yeah. Cause think about it like ultra rich. A super successful fund manager, investor, athlete. It doesn't take that many people. That's my point of the hotels, July and August. Well, the nice hotels. Hermes, I'm sure, has not hit a crack. They report, so we'll see.
They're publicly traded. I thought I saw something on Twitter. I'm just going to search them real quick. Anyways, when you're that expensive, it doesn't take many people. Every athlete can still afford it. Every, you know, a list celebrity can still afford it. Yeah. I think the issue is, is. I mean, you got NBA guys making $80 million a year. They ain't wearing Brunello, let me tell you. What are they wearing? Do you think an NBA player is wearing Brunello Cuccinelli? I think absolutely not.
Hermes now has the same market cap of LVMH. Wow. They got one bag. The whole business is worth- On one fifth of the sales. So they're both worth $270 billion. And LVMH is priced incredibly cheap right now. And as of revenue in 24, Hermes was 17 billion. LVMH was 90 billion. Hermes is very profitable, right? Yeah. Something like $5 billion of EBITDA or something crazy. People like the Hermes stock. Yeah. I think LVMH is really priced cheap then.
I mean, no one could afford a $270 billion company or mess. Yeah, you can't buy either of the companies. No, obviously LVMH you can't either. Yeah, no one can buy. But I'm just saying that LVMH, considering the diversified nature of their business, seems like a much safer play than Hermes got a bag. The whole business is one bag. There are multiples. Yeah. Reflect the demand of the bag. Yeah. It's insane that they have an entire business based off one style bag. Birkin. Yeah. The Birkin.
It's snake skin? No, they have every skin. Human skin, snake skin, cheap skin, whatever the fuck you want. They got everything. Do you think there's a black market for a mess? It's impossible to get. There's people reselling. This is black market for all the other goods. Yeah. Not black. You mean gray. Gray. Sorry. No. They don't wholesale. Can you buy an Hermes bag in Russia? I'm sure the resale shop
Someone just fly it in. Put a suitcase full of Hermes bags and fly it in Moscow. Yeah, it's kind of like what people are going to do with the watches, the plan from Switzerland. Just wear it. Yeah. There's a lot of people going and buying watches because the currency and the pricing is so much cheaper. You go there, wear the watch on your wrist, wear two on your wrist and come back home. And people resell it here.
Like you could sell it as brand new, put it back in the box and you make that ARB just by flying. Yeah, that's probably the new hustle. Yeah, but it's unbelievable to see that luxury is one of those things you rarely ever see. In the chat, I think if you live in Southern California, Instagram, I mean, maybe because of how old we are, but I'm getting a Rosewood discount ad every day. I am too.
But then I went and looked at the pricing, the cheapest room where you're not on the ocean is 1400. Yeah. But what was the high 25? Yeah. Because even Ojai Valley Inn, I just looked. And I looked during the week just to see. Because weekends are obviously always busy. Still like $1,200, $1,300. So we were just there. Oh, hi? Yeah. A month ago, two months ago. I think it was, we paid half that.
600 bucks, I think. Got it. Yeah, I just looked at random. I just wanted to see. And it was like a random May, Wednesday, Tuesday to Thursday. Yeah. Because it's not busy. I don't think the prices have got cut yet. They're going to get cut. They're about to. Someone is going to stop spending money at some point. You would think especially the local markets, because a lot of that...
bookings at like a Rosewood or Ojai. Yeah. They do it like a week before. Yeah. They're like, Oh wow. We have the weather's nice. Weather's nice. Kids don't have a camp. They don't have a camp. Yeah. School, you know, whatever. It's a holiday. I'm really curious about this summer vacation plans. I know you mentioned it on one of the pods.
Is spring break right now for your school? No, it was. It was last week. What was the chatter? Were people doing Aspen and Cabo? Everyone was everywhere. Well, those are booked pre-tariff. We were basically the only people at home. Yeah. Yeah, spring break, it seemed like everyone was still traveling and enjoying. Summer will be my real test to see if people have things planned. Yeah, because people are planning right now. But I'll give you an example. We had nothing planned.
And, you know, in true, you know, boomer fashion, our in-laws are taking us to Hawaii. Grandma and grandpa. Really? Yeah. That's nice. So we got a free trip. When are you guys going? In August. Peak. I saw a stat that over 50% of Gen Z are still on their parents' payroll stipend. Oh, it was millennials. I don't even think it was Gen Z. I think it was millennials.
So I mean, I mean, it is unaffordable if you're 22 living in a big city. I think like there's always the memes of like, you know, boomers who worked one job, bought a house, and they have no... If you bought a house in the 80s... And you lived in that home the entire time. and you modestly invested in your 401k, you're a millionaire. Yeah. If you're a working professional from the 80s, you're definitely a millionaire. Yeah. They all are millionaires.
70 trillion is getting sent to these boneheads that are at Coachella. Yeah. I mean, that's why I'm not too worried about the economy. I wouldn't be either because... It's an aging population that is worth a fortune. The problem is it's an aging population that's going to live very long. Like, I think life expectancy... Look, the only reason life expectancy went down in America is the opioid crisis. Yeah, but those people aren't... They're not on opioids. Yeah, they're going to live...
They're green juice in it. They're green juice in it up to 125. As I'm saying, I think it's a pretty fascinating experiment. There's like a... kind of a tug here happening. And the other thing is, We're getting into summer soon, which is crazy.
That's like concert season. Yeah. The tier one artists will all be fine. Yeah. It's like whether the tier two and tier three cease off. Yeah. I mean, when I go look at concert prices, because sometimes I'll be like, oh, I'd like to see this. I'm blown away at the prices. Like how expensive they are. But you're only looking at tier one artists, right? Yeah, but like, yeah, sure. Fine. It's because it's either at.
So far. Or it's at Madison Square Garden. Like I'm in New York all the time. And sometimes I go, I have nothing to do tonight. I wonder if I can get a ticket to something. And I'll look like some bullshit artist. It'd be $500. That's a lot. Even like we took our kids to the Dodger game. It was so expensive. Didn't you say you were under face? I got under face. for the non yeah i did but it was still expensive i told you it was 190 base and i sat in the second deck yeah
190 face is crazy. And then, you know, food. Yeah. A thousand bucks. Yeah, probably. That's insane. $1,000 worth of Dodger games. Because parking's going to be $30. No, it's way more. Parking's like $40, $50 now. Yeah. I prepaid parking and I think it was $40. You're easily at a thousand for a family of four. Yeah. Popcorn, cotton candy, whatever. Everything's so expensive. Yeah. I'm curious to see.
Now when I go to restaurants, they make it a point to tell you more so than ever that it's happy hour. I remember I felt like Happy Era had gone away. And now I feel like, Hey guys, just want to let everyone know you got 30 more minutes in drink up. Cause they see, I'm sure the bill. declines dramatically after happy hour, like what people order. And people are priced. Like when you look at a menu today, it's ridiculous. The dish is like $30 for pasta.
Yeah. That's a opening price at any nice LA restaurant. Yeah. 30 bucks. Yeah. And if you get anything of any fancy, it's 50. Yeah. God forbid you want a little truffle. 75. More, right? Isn't truffle more? Oh, yeah. It depends. If it's the fake truffle. Yeah, it's just truffle oil. But yeah, it's interesting. I don't expect prices to drop anywhere anytime soon. The only thing I will say is I travel a lot. So my barometer is if that LA New York flight drops, and it has dropped.
It's totally chaos typically with families. Did you see families yesterday when you were there? It was all business travel? Yeah. Do you think the conference circuit, that's the biggest excess? No, people hold on to that till the end. It has to be 2008 before the conferences die. This is a conference every week in Vegas. And Orlando. Vegas, New York, Miami, Orlando, everywhere. Anaheim. There's so many. Our team.
Everyone's like, oh, there's an Amazon show in Miami. There's an Amazon show in Utah. Yeah, a return show. I never heard of this until last week. Yeah, there's so many shows. And people are packed. These shows are packed. Every show is packed still. And then you go to the show. So I go to a lot of the shows. How's business? Terrible. I'm like, don't you think you should have wasted time coming to the show? The show costs you five G's. Yeah. No one wants to miss that Vegas week, weekday trip.
When that softens, that's when you know. But I bet room rates aren't expensive. No, Vegas room rates are cheap. Very cheap. Very cheap. That's how they're getting the corporate budget. 200 bucks, can I go? Yeah, why not? I mean, even in New York, I haven't had an expensive... I mean, a year ago, I would have... I stay at the Moxie, which is like... like a Marriott, I think hotel, but it's like their, it's basically like their Gen Z hotel that they have.
And I stay at the Moxie Lower East Side. That's where I've been staying the last six months. On average, I pay $250. which is cheap very cheap very cheap like last week i it was like busy and it was like 320. That says like the most I've ever paid at that hotel is like 350. But I mean, it is a box. Like I can't even open my suitcase. Like I have to put it on the bed. So I saw you posted.
You went to Tamron, which is a very high-end Indian restaurant in New York City. Busy, not busy? It's expensive. It's expensive. It was busy. Luckily, you know, one of my investors paid for the mail. But it was... So the super high end... But it was busy. I mean, New York is... The hot spots in New York are always busy. They're always busy. Bulls, bears, you know, they're trading all day. And the thing is, but you could get it. Now you get the gold investors. That's your new.
Oh yeah. Those new catalysts come in, come into the club for the first time. Yeah, it's a fascinating thing. All right. The next bit of news that came, which was really interesting. Number of new podcasts has fallen sharply. So what's interesting is we saw this rise of podcasts happen during... Well, I think you generally saw this rise of the creator economy and millions and millions of new creators came, you know, happened. And now...
I think it's come to fruition that it's very hard to make money doing podcasts. So you got to do it. for a very long time with for the love of the game and then if you hit it You can make a fuckload of money. Cause like, I know, I'm sure you've heard that Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, how much money they're making. They're making millions of dollars a year. And like.
You know, I don't even know anyone who listens to them. People do. So, so, but I'm just saying, but like, like if all in monetize. They would be making $10 million a year. They technically have. Sax is at the White House. Yeah. J. Cal's on a speaking circuit. Yeah. Making a fortune. But I'm saying it's like if they turned on the full on.
Joe Rogan sponsorship fucking thing. Yeah, they have the viewership. Yeah, I mean, even it was really interesting. I think I saw Chamath arguing with Jon Favreau on social media. And... You know, Jon Favreau is an extremely well-known podcaster, one percenter in the podcast world. He's top five every time they release a pod. He has a half a million followers on Twitter. Chamath has 1.8 million. Shamat's been famous for a while though. No.
Famous? He's been on the CNBC circuit forever. I know, but like during GameStop, he probably added a million followers. The pod, right? But I'm just saying like Jon Favreau has been podcasting for a decade. These guys just got started during COVID. 16. Yeah. Yeah. Nine years. Yeah. Right. So it's like, but I was just, I was just shocked that Chamath has that much bigger of a reach than Jon Favreau. But so I.
Regardless of your opinion on Shamath, I'm very confident he's the reason all in. He had a million followers before going into the pod. He was a well-known person. Yeah. If drama actually posted our podcast, we probably have a lot more. Yeah. Drama has a lot of following. But, but, but the number of new podcasts has just plummeted in 2020. Well, it's, it's. You know, if you're doing it for the sole sake of making money, it's very tough because if you're not in that upper echelon.
It just doesn't make sense. And a lot of people don't even want to do more than like 10 podcasts. And they see their viewership. And they're like, ah, this is stupid. Yeah. And it's also a testament to people who last. Like, were we in year nine? Yeah, probably. Year eight, I think. But you have to do it for over a, like we have a real following, especially on social between the reels and TikTok, but it's only because we do it regularly.
And it's a consistent way of whether you agree with us or not, you're at least going to get the clip. And I actually thought it was interesting. Joe Rogan was saying. Kill Tony, which now is on Netflix. Yeah. Tony's like as big as it gets at this point in the comedian world. He said it took him 10 years to get an audience. He's like, they were literally playing like 10 person shows. Yeah.
For years. Yeah. But they just stuck with it, worked their ass off, and now they have a Netflix show. Yeah. No, no, of course. And I think that's a person that wanted to pursue a career in entertainment. He did it because that's what he wanted to do with his life. And, you know, comedians are the biggest grinders, right? It's the hardest profession. Yeah, that like Nikki Glaser, who...
catapulted after the Tom Brady roast. She's like, I've been funny for 20 years. Now everyone wants me because she got her break. And now she hosted Golden Globes. And she's like, I never would have gotten it if it weren't for that one Tom Brady roast.
But that's my point, is that I think this... podcast or content game it's it's you got to put in the time and most people give up because they don't get traction right away yeah i think a lot of the tiktokers in 2020 that all blew up yeah very few that are still relevant yeah of course All right, let's move on. Winners, losers, content. Who's your winner of the week? Winner of the week is the NBA. What happened? Playoffs are starting. Okay. Steph Curry.
And Jimmy Butler had legendary games last night. Yep. Lakers, they got all the stars. Yeah. You got Steph, you got Draymond, you got LeBron, Luka. All the stars are playing. It's going to be super competitive. No one knows who's going to win in any matchup. And I think it'll be compelling TV. I think ratings will finally be up.
Because you have the stars. Well, I think Luke on the Lakers is going to bring everyone to watch. And he's playing Ant-Man. By the way, very few people talk to me about Lakers. just in business. But ever since Luca came, I'll start a call or a meeting and be like, oh yeah, Luca, I've been watching the games. Good. Like everyone's pretty excited about it. And I think he's also a beloved figure.
that like no one even hates him. And he's in LA. Yeah. I mean, he went back to Dallas last week and they all cheered Luca, Luca. No one has any animosity toward him. I've heard some of the NBA guys say he has a chance to be Kobe level in LA if he plays the next 15 years here. I mean, he's insane. All right. My winner is football. Draft is coming up. It's insane. I was watching ESPN on the plane just now. They're talking about Shador. They're talking about Cam Moore. Shador is the most...
He's ratings. Yeah. Doesn't even matter where he goes. Yeah. He's ratings. He's ratings. And it's just- Travis Hunter's ratings. Yeah. These guys are just, they're retiring their jerseys after going 13 and 12. Yeah. It's just obscene. Which I think- A lot of people, all the old guard are like, I can't believe this.
It's marketing. Yeah. Like we're in the NIL world. Yeah. If you don't market your school. Yeah. And by the way, it's showing gratitude to the players. Yeah. You guys changed our school. You guys made us a national fucking... Yeah. They're a spectacle. Yeah. And so now everyone, they brought so much money to school. Yeah. Retire their jerseys. It's good. I think it's great. Yeah. I agree. Loser of the week. Loser of the week. RFK thinks he solved autism.
I don't know if he said he solved it. He thinks he found the cause of it. And I'm in this world. More than 99% of the people. Let me ask you a question. I understand your take on that. Don't you think it's good that he's looking into it at least as opposed to not putting a, he's shedding a light on it. I think.
Shutting a light, fine. The cases have risen, but- The real thing that people don't understand when they just see these headline statistics, if you're nonverbal at two, which many kids who develop completely normally are, you can get an autistic diagnosis. Yeah. So the cases have risen because the goalposts. I agree with that. I agree. I was more of how many kids families we know that have two year olds that didn't talk and they're totally fine. Yeah, I agree with that. I think.
I think the cool thing about it is he's bringing attention to the cause that's going to make people pay attention. Yeah. Let's see what his, uh, recommendation is because it's not vaccines sorry well yeah that's fine i'm just saying that like i think anytime a cause is brought national attention and national federal dollars It's a good sign. That's my hope is that money gets...
You know, he fired 3,500 people in the FDA last week. Yeah, he's cleaning the house. I mean, everyone's firing everyone. The whole fucking government's getting gutted. Yeah. You got to imagine DC real estate has fallen off. It has. I keep, I check, I check this condo I've been tracking. We got listed for, but you said the Ritz was still 1400 a night, which isn't cheap. I mean, everyone's still coming to DC. That's different.
You still have to go and think about it. Every CEO is there. Every week. Every week. So where are they staying? They're staying at the Ritz. So, or the Trump or whatever it is, whatever it's called now. And I think people will continue to...
show up, but there's a ton leaving. Everyone says, I've heard this so many times. I've never been to DC as an adult. We went as kids with our family. Probably five, six years. They all say that Ritz... bar is where all the deal making happens it's like kind of in new york they used to i don't know if it still is the spot the four seasons yeah like lobby is where everything was going down
I'd love to just go for two, three minutes. There's probably McDonald's now with Trump. Yeah, I'm curious to see. I mean, you have friends that are down there. Ask them where they're hanging out. When they go? Yeah. I'm sure there it's. Yeah. Is that the nicest place there? There's a Four Seasons. I'm sure you have to stay at the Trump if you're going to meet the guy.
Probably give you a better chance of meeting him. Where are you staying? I'm sure he asks. Oh, he asks. Even Cinder comes. Where are you staying, Cinder? All right. Great. My loser is China. They came out today and said, we will come to the negotiation if Trump shows perspective. This is the wrong fucking guy to play that game with. He will purposely be disrespectful now. Yeah, he'll be more disrespectful. Yes. I think...
Well, he's just waiting them out. Yeah. Do you think China can wait out three and a half years of terrible economy? No. It'll be civil unrest. Civil unrest. Because that's what he's banking on. He's emperor for life. Yeah. So he thinks he doesn't give a fuck. The China caving take is basically Xi can have some unrest. and some unsettledness, but like, it is still, they could be a coup.
There could be. Like someone could be like, fuck this. Why are we all losing money? Just sign a goddamn deal and move on. Are you still going to the belly of the beast? I'm there, May. This is what you need to do. I will not be recording anything. Don't record anything.
Just have the casual conversations with the lobby at the hotel. Yeah. Because you're going to stay at a nice hotel. Yeah. What's going on here? What do you think? Yeah. I'm going to maybe wear- Talk to the waiter. Yeah. Talk to the- i'm at a conference too it's like a global conference so like there'll be people what's the conference for um It's basically one of our investors puts on a summit for Chinese companies. Chinese and American companies that work together.
It might be empty. I might be the only one. But I'm curious to see the future. You got to chat everyone. I'm going to chat everyone. Just write notes. You can't record it. I understand. I'm not writing notes either. They're tracking everything over there. I'm here by the gracious host, Xi Jinping.
Yeah. I'm really curious. Talk to the restaurants. Yes. Everyone. Yeah. Yeah. I will chat everyone. I know. Conversationalist. Yeah. I talk to everyone everywhere. Yeah. I'll talk to the waiters. Usually tell you the pulse. All right. Content. Content. One of my best friends, Neil Mehta, was on Invest Like the Best. They already did a long piece on him in The Colossus.
which was a long form written content. He also went on Patrick Rashani's podcast to talk about green Oaks. Yep. He's just a, obviously insanely impressive. person and how much success he's had. And I thought he... was able to explain because he doesn't do much press yeah and it seems like he does he's just like every few years i'll do something yeah just to make sure the name's out there right yeah and then he'll disappear yeah uh but oh it's fun to see both
the written form and the podcast because i saw it from the start yeah it's cool to just yeah it was really the stories that he would tell stories are good and they're fun and it was it was really well done and i actually if you go on spotify you can watch it And it was actually shot beautifully. So it was a really good listen. All right. That's all we got. What's your content? My content was that too. I listened to it on the plane and I really enjoyed it. I thought it was entertaining.
informative and obviously just interesting to hear. you know the all the stories that he was sharing he's just a very great speaker yeah he speaks really well so it's good i really liked it um oh we we have uh Shout out. From Alex. I want to give a shout out. I have one bone to pick. What? Patrick O'Shaughnessy is in tech. Okay. So he's around a lot of Indians. Yeah. Call him Neil Mehta. Yeah. Because he thought maybe he was coming for Mehta.
Come on, dude. You know Indian names. That's not a hard name to pronounce properly. Yeah. That's a good call out. From Alex. I want to give a shout out to my homie Kishan Patel. I've known him since college and he got married last July. Just wanted to send you a congrats being a great friend and always putting me on dope artists and fashion. Keep doing you, buddy. You want to give him a shout out from last July?
He got married last July. Now you're giving a shout out? Maybe you just started listening. Who? Kishin or Alex? Who knows? Yeah. Shout out seems late, Alex. That's all I got. Frisco, Texas Indians. If you're afraid of leaving the country because of legal reasons, you should go visit Frisco, Texas. It's like going to India. Our cousins? Well, it's not third world.
What? Clean streets. I'm just saying, like, if our cousins don't feel good about going to India, they just go to Frisco. Oh, the last thing I wanted to bring up on the autism thing, because I actually have, we have a very close friend who's... a doctor in the field of autistic kids. But she's a green card holder. Yeah. And she's like, I can't speak up. I'll get fucking shipped out. What would she speak out against?
Just whatever policy that they're going to potentially implement. So she, I mean, I'm telling you the fear is real. I believe the fear. I don't think anything would happen to her though. Yeah. You have, it's not against the law in America to speak out against. Rubio said so. Well, I'm going to trust Rubio, but I think if you... He said, you come...
To America for college education, shut the fuck up and get your education and do whatever you want. He pretty much said that. Well, he's saying you can do whatever you want. He's just telling you shut the fuck up.
I'm just telling you people are scared. I believe you. I believe you people are scared. And these are like high professionals. Yeah. Not like a... you know a labor farmer yeah he said he's protecting the farmers yeah they we need that labor yeah steve cohen said it because we need the labor i agree i think everything is going to be fine i'm always an optimist no matter what All right. Have a great weekend. And see you Sunday.