Can You REALLY Trust Real Estate Listing Prices?

Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seats. The show's about to begin. Jack, let's put on a show. Yeah, let's do it. Welcome to another episode of Golden Nuggets with Sylvia El Dawi. And today I'm joined by Jack Sellers, who is the founder and CEO of Yellow Value and is quietly built a platform that's calling BS on overpriced listings and fake bargains. Jack, welcome to the show. Thank you. Tell us about yourself and what you're building.

Sure. So yeah, I'm Jack, founder of Yellow Value. I grew up in the region in Bahrain, moved back to the UK, spent some time there and then moved here during COVID and had set some money aside to buy a flat. And I had a lot of agents sending me properties and I had no way to sift through them. And, you know, I didn't know the market. So I built this tool for my, just to help myself because I'm a coder. And yeah, it's just kind of evolved from there. Sounds like a lot of effort to

to buy a property. I'm going to code something for myself. Yeah, you're just you're, you're a coder. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's just, it's something that I wanted for yourself and I and I knew I could build it. So yeah, I was just too intrigued by the problem, I'd say. And and that is a question I ask every prop tech is what problem are you solving for? The problem is it's very difficult for the average person to come up with a mental model of how much something should be worth.

We all have to do it when we're browsing through listings subconsciously most of the time, but it isn't always obvious based on all of the different factors that could influence the price. If we're kind of focusing in on one specific building or area and only looking at a very small niche, then maybe we can do that.

But as soon as we broaden our search, it's very difficult for us to continuously value things. And I think that's where you you need machine learning models to, to do the heavy lifting for you. Now the problem is is if you only ever look at sold prices, then values would never increase or decrease. If you're always going to base it on the last sale price. What kind of algorithm do you use to work out what a property

is worth today? When I look at property prices, I'm trying to make a prediction of the current market value. I'm not trying to predict what's going to happen in the future. The current market value is obviously influenced by previous market value, but by previous sale prices. And you're right, if if we only looked at previous prices and and never budged, then the market would never go up.

So if something is happening to cause those prices to go up over time and that is the natural kind of buying and selling activity that happens in the market. So, so yeah, there are going to be times where, you know, an asking price is a little bit higher than, you know, what a valuation model might say. And over time those, you know, slight increases will lead to a market that goes up over time and that will be reflected in the previous prices.

So, yeah, I think over time, the more information that we are able to incorporate into these models, the more they'll be able to anticipate that rising market trend. And there's also the challenge, and I've got this experience from valuing properties back in the UK. Every seller and every landlord has a reason why they believe their property is better than everybody else's.

And I'm guilty of this as well. Like when I looked at the valuation of my property based on recent sales on the street, I was like, no, but mine's far superior because XYZ. How do you kind of manage sellers and and landlords expectations because they will always believe that theirs is worth hundreds of thousands more because of oh mine has a better view or mine has been upgraded. How do you factor in? I suppose you can't really because you don't know the

property inside. You can just base it off the square footage and. Well, I had an interesting chat with an agent once. I asked him, would you rather? I said would you rather represent a buyer that had $1,000,000 to spend? Would you rather represent the seller that had an apartment worth $1,000,000? And he said assuming the buyer was serious, definitely the buyer because we know what the value of the $1,000,000 is

$1,000,000. But the guy with the apartment that's worth $1,000,000 probably thinks it's worth 1 1/2. And the challenge is trying to get him to bring his, you know, expectations down and tools like yellow value actors. Yeah, kind of like a, a reality check for everyone who owns a property. And I think the more, the more information that we can lay out, the more credibility it will

give. So for example, with views, like everyone asks about views and renovations, how can how can you know if my property's got a good view? Or how can you know if my property's been renovated? Well, if we see that the previous sale prices of that particular property deviate from what the model thinks it should be, then we can infer that either it has a great view or

it's being renovated. And that is a challenge that you know that I suppose that's the role of real estate agents is to manage that gap between sellers expectations and buyers expectations. So how can agents be using yellow value on a daily basis? I think, yeah, like you said, to bridge the gap and I've and I've had agents interested in it because, yeah, you, you get buyers that are looking for a

bargain. But in, in reality, the way the Dubai market is right now and you know, it, maybe it'll slow down, maybe it is slowing down. But you know, for the last, let's call it three years, there's not really been any bargains really. You, you're going to get what you pay for. You know, if, if you're buying, if you're buying a good property, you, you should be happy to get the asking price. You know if if the asking price is, you know, reasonable. Can you walk us through the

yellow value platform? Sure. So when you go on the home page, it's just a regular user, you don't have an account, anything like that. It's set up so that you can look up any location and either the unit number or the number of bedrooms. And you'll then be taken to a page that has all the information that we have about that property, historical sales prices for that building or project, and then what our models think is the current value of that property along

with the confidence level. I like that the confidence level because you've got like medium high confidence or low confidence. Talk us through those three different different confidence levels. Yeah, you need it because, you know, even with humans, if, if I was to say to you what is, you know, some, some particular villa in Emirates Hillsworth, it's very, very difficult. You know, that villa could be completely different to all of its neighbors, could be completely renovated inside.

Imagine that problem, you know, for, for computers as well. It's, it's, it's exactly the same problem. Now I believe that over time these models will be able to interpret the data provided we have good data provided We continue to add to the our data sources that those models over time will be able to come up with better and better estimates. But yeah, it's it's still, it's

still very difficult. Another thing that I like about your website is you don't make people into their e-mail address to get the valuation. So you can just play around and have a nosey and see what your neighbour's properties worth or other. Do you do you find a lot of searches are just kind of speculative or?

Nosey, that was that was very important to me because, you know, back with Zoopla, I think it's actually changed now where they want you to have an account and they want to, you know, you know, send you emails about your property and try and get you to sell it and all of that. But back in the day, it was just, you know, a tool for the public to use.

And, and yeah, you, you could just be nosy, but yeah, I wanted to make a tool that you, you could, you know, use as much as you wanted and not be hounded by agents. Like if you, if you want, you know, an agent, then we can help put you in touch with someone. We're, we're not agents, but you know, we can help put you in touch with ones that we trust. But it's important to me that people can use it and not feel like they have to give away personal information.

So where do you draw the line with privacy and transparency? Because in the UK you can if you know someone's address, you just pay 4 lbs on the Land Registry website and you get the title, deed, name and the price that they bought it for. So where do you draw the line? Like how much information is important and will that stop certain sales from happening because the the buyer finds out how much the property was purchased for two years ago? How does it influence people's

decisions? I think it's huge, you know, in the long run, if, if Dubai wants to continue to become more

transparent, then people are going to have to become more comfortable with that data being public. Now, that doesn't mean that I'm going to be able to, you know, look up who owns a property. You can't even really do that in the UK very easily. But to know what a particular property has sold for in the past, at the end of the day that that is public information. You don't own that data. Just because I buy a flat doesn't mean that I own all the

data about the flat. It's, you know, people have got to get out of that way of thinking. I think the Dubai government want to push transparency, but I think they they're doing it in a slow and steady way. We've gone up quite considerably in the JLL ranking. So JLL have like an annual transparency, real estate transparency index and I can't remember what we've got. It was like in the 30s and now we're ranked in the 20s. And I think the goal is to get into the top 10 most transparent

real estate market. So what data for us to be like in the top 10? How much more data needs to be out there? Well, honestly, you know, we're, we're all hyper critical of what, you know, the current state of the market and, and Dubai, because we live here, we work here in this industry, we want it to be better.

But if we take a step back, you know, in terms of the region or even the continent, honestly, Dubai, there's there's not many contenders for more transparent real estate markets in Dubai. I couldn't start yellow value anywhere else in the region right now really. So Dubai is already way ahead of the region, but to get on a par with the UK, Australia, Ireland, you know, places like this, the main thing is making public the transaction history for specific unit numbers and fillers.

And that's the one that's, you know, a little bit of a touchy subject with some people, 'cause some people don't want their friends and neighbors to know, you know, how much they, how much they paid. Or what they're worth. They might. They don't want people to be able to calculate their net worth and there are a couple of black holes which I feel are being filled in. So DIFC is 1. What other data would you love to? See, I think yeah, the same, the same thing with rents rental contracts.

But I mean, yeah, that's the same issue as being able to assign historical transactions and historical rental contracts to specific unit numbers and villas. Other than that, honestly, honestly, nothing really comes to mind because even even based on what we have now, there's a lot of data. Like it was enough for me to

start this company. So yeah, once, once that is, you know, publicly available, I would be surprised if Dubai didn't jump like if, if the next jump wasn't significantly bigger than the last one. I'd love to see like 1 figure that I'd love to see is a kind of comparison of initial listing prices versus eventual sold prices. That's a good one actually, that sort of information.

So if we if we and I don't think it would ever be totally public because obviously it's owned by predominantly two companies and I don't know why any of those would you know, make make that data public. You you're talking about the property portals. Yeah, yeah. To to be able to have a complete history of asking prices and the dates that those properties went onto the market or came off the market and be able to map them onto real transaction prices, that would be phenomenal. Yeah.

But I don't know if we'll ever. Fully get that it's one thing that I always use to advise my sellers and landlords is because the natural instinct is let's go on the market. Let's hit the market at the highest price. Let's see if we get any nibbles. You know, and actually for me, I always advised against that because that first week of going online or hitting the market is the most crucial.

And I don't know about you, but any, anybody that's looking seriously will always filter by most recent rather than, you know, OK, when you're shopping online, shoes, clothes, you might sort by lowest price, highest price. But when you're looking at real estate, you want to see the freshest listings. So you're searching by most recent. But if it's a new listing and it's priced at the peak price, then let's see if we get a nibble price. Then you miss out on nibbles.

My flat, for example, was purchased around 2:00 or so years ago. And a few weeks ago I saw a flat come onto the market that was exactly the same, exactly the same layout, exactly the same view for like double the price. And I know the market hasn't doubled in that time, but that, that is me who, you know, is aware of the building, is aware of what the prices should be and also, you know, owns a valuation company and uses it. The average person doesn't

necessarily have that. So yeah, I guess, I guess that person was hoping that they would get some nibbles and predictably they didn't because they've since dropped the price, but it's still way too high. And then actually what they've done since then of these, they've they've dropped the price and then they've got three separate brokers to try and sell it. So yeah, it happens all the time

here. But I think over time, as tools like yellow value are more used and people are more in the habit of going to them, then that will definitely not. It'll never stop, but it'll happen a lot less. And that's quite a common thing to just keep chipping away at the price until you get someone biting, but you end up then getting a stale listing, should we say so? How can yellow value help in that scenario?

I think the more people that use it, the more unacceptable it will be for sellers to to do it in the first place. Like there, there won't be that perception that they'll get any nibbles. Like right now the maybe they have like a 20% chance they're going to get a nibble or 10% chance. If more people are using yellow value that drops to like less than 1%. Obviously those numbers are not exact, but yeah, it's that's the

case. So that's that's one side of it is preventing the sellers from doing it in the first place. Also, I actually spoke to the agent that listed the property initially for double. Did you call them and? Say like, I know I, I was very, you know, upfront with them. I I, I told him, you know, I was just interested because it was obviously such a high price. And he said, yeah, like I told, I told my client that's way too high.

And they, they didn't listen if, if the agent had, you know, a tool to, to go to the seller and be like, look, you know, we've got a valuation report from Yellow Valley, for example, or someone else. This, this shows you that your property is not worth what it is. The problem now is that to do evaluation valuations are very expensive generally and they and they take some time.

So that's why we came up with a product for agents, which is something in between just a automated estimate and a full valuation. It's kind of like a like a mini report that they can, they can give to their client and be like, look, you know, you can put your flat on the market for that amount, but nobody's going to buy it. This is what it's worth, and This is why it's worth this.

And, and yeah, as as those reports and as these tools become more publicly used, then I think the practice will cease. And is there anyone that you feel would resist this kind of level of transparency? Like could some agents not want

to use the data or developers or? Sure. Yeah, I've noticed. I've noticed a trend that because Dubai is so competitive for agents, I've noticed a trend of agents starting to kind of call themselves advisors rather than just simply agents. And I think, and I think that makes sense.

And I think if that trend continues where they really are just, you know, kind of presenting you with the data, finding out what you want and then helping you, you know, pick something based on your requirements rather than trying to sell you a specific thing, then then, yeah, I think I think those agents will welcome these tools.

It's the ones that are particularly, I would say, trying to market to foreign investors that don't know the market very well and are susceptible to, you know, flashy marketing and brochures and stuff like that. Those ones won't enjoy these tools. But yeah, I'd say most agents probably do because if if these tools help a buyer readjust their expectations or or vice versa for a seller and help bridge the buyer seller divide, then yeah, I think the tools will be welcomed.

And there's a lot of talk right now about the role of the real estate agent because you know, there's a lot of exciting new things coming up with they call it agentic AI, where AI robots or bots or whatever are going to be doing a lot more of the agent

role. So it's it's not going to eliminate the role of the real estate agent, but perhaps potentially push the the job start of the real estate agent, like maybe they'd only appear on a viewing, you know, so that's the first time you actually get to speak or see that your real

estate agent is when you're. When you come to view, and that's because there are so many more tools now to manage the qualification process, help the buyer understand what their budget can, but you know can get them and shortlist location, shortlist in area, shortlist the type of property. Do you find buyers are doing a lot of the ground work themselves rather than relying on agents? And do you see the role of the real estate agent evolving?

I think there's a tendency in prop tech to say, oh, you know, we don't need agents or we can do without them. I've never really felt that way because I feel like the the start-ups that make that claim we're going to get rid of agents, they kind of end up becoming.

Agents. Yeah. So at the end of the day, like if there is some something or someone, whether that's a human or AI that can help guide you through, you know, the data get, you know, guide you through the different areas, the different buildings, give you information that you didn't previously have or help help you get, you know, get the bits of information that you need to make a decision. I, I don't see why that would go away. I think you're, I think you're right.

I think it will be done more and more by AI, but I think that's just everything, not just agents. And I think agents would welcome that because they probably don't so much enjoy, you know, doing all the homework for them. And as you said, like, they kind of step in as advisors rather than consultants. And not right there from the beginning. But I do, I strongly believe like the role of the real estate agent will never go extinct. It is the biggest purchase unless you're buying yachts and

buildings and whatever else. But it is going to be the biggest purchase you make in a lifetime. You're going to need some hand holding through that for sure. If all the robots mobilized and and assisted with the process, you're still going to need the human touch.

Even me, I'm very comfortable looking at all the data myself, you know, and I, I enjoy it, but I chose to have a, you know, a buying agent represent me. Yeah, 'cause at the end of the day, what it's, it's 2%. You know, the Dubai market has gone up by more than that each year since. So in, in the long run, doesn't make a difference. But if it helps you find something that you actually want, then that makes a huge difference.

So I'd like to know more about that choice you made because it sounds like a conscious decision that you're going to find a buyer's agent rather than rely on the seller's agent. So can you talk us through that? Yeah, I just wanted someone on my side because again, you know, I did I, I started coding this website when I was very fresh to the market. I didn't know the market. So kind of while I was building

it, I just, I, I wasn't actively looking for an agent, but I knew I kind of wanted someone to represent me. And I was kind of trying to decide which like investment strategy I wanted because initially it was an investment property. So I was trying to decide what made sense, you know, Airbnb's or flat shares or whatever. And I read an article that was written by an agency. It was on their blog and I called them up and I, you know, asked them about it and they said, oh, come in, you know,

we'll have a chat with you. So I went in, sat with them in their like, conference room. It's just me and this, this agent. And she wasn't trying to sell me anything. She was literally just having a chat for like an hour. And then at the end she was like, OK, well, good luck. Hope it all goes well. She didn't, you know, follow up. She didn't try and push me.

And then yeah, like six months later after it, it was after dealing with some seller's agents actually, that I just decided, no, I actually I want someone on my side. And yeah, I just messaged her and I was like, do you want to do it? And she's like, yeah, go on then. And it's quite rare that agents actually advertise themselves as I'm a buyer's agent or I'm a seller's agent. So how do you find someone to

represent you? I think it's, it's someone that you trust now that's it's difficult if it's someone you're, you've only just met. Obviously a lot of it is kind of, you know, our, you know, our gut feeling or intuitions about a person. Yeah. I want, I want someone that isn't too salesy, that isn't constantly trying to sell me and just constantly, you know, hunting that Commission. I had a lot of that when I first

moved here. I actually, I think that's partly why I built the, you know, the website to begin with because I had agents, you know, really kind of contact me every other day. Harassing. Yeah, a little bit. And and, you know, doing the classic thing of like, you know, Jack, if you don't, if you don't buy this, you know, it's going to it's it's going to go next week and it's going to it's going to be worth X amount more. You know, you're really missing out like constantly doing that.

I didn't want that and. Do you think that agents do need to evolve into kind of data consultants to some degree? Yeah, for sure. You know, a good, a good property will sell itself. I I'm very, very sceptical of all of the, the marketing and the, you know, the, you know, all of the stuff. I guess it's more, it's more kind of more off plan. But yeah, a good location, a good view, a good layout, it's going to sell itself.

You know, if you can just guide them to that, if that's what they want, that's more important. And is there an outdated real estate practice that you'd love to see gone tomorrow? Yeah, I would say Dubai. Dubai's evolving and the property market's evolving and

Proptech here is really buzzing right now. But the financing side of things is pretty stagnant. That hasn't changed as far as I know for like over 10 years now. The mortgaging rules, only banks here can give mortgages. You can't have, you know, private companies doing lending and things like that. I think as Dubai continues to evolve, I think that that very old fashioned way of doing mortgages and financing that needs to evolve as well.

So like in my, in my example, when I first moved here, I didn't have a job, but I, I was just house hunting basically. And I, you know, I had had my, you know, money kind of set aside ready to buy a flat. And I was specifically trying to buy an investment property, something that would pay, you know, for itself, you know, with rental income. And in my head, I I and I still can't understand why.

Why did I not get a mortgage, you know, for that it's a property in a good location that's got rental income. Why would a bank not finance that? Why do they care if I? Have a salary? Yeah. And it just shows, it shows that there are issues with the system as a whole. Like I, I mean, I've been told it's because it's very difficult for the banks to repossess the property if if, if you stop paying. So, you know, that needs to be

sorted. But yeah, I think if the, if the market is to evolve to the point of, you know, truly competing with the US or the UK, then the the financing side of things needs to kind of leapfrog into the 21st. Century and what's on the road map for the other value?

Right now it's getting our volume, getting our valuation reports into the banks so that they can be used for mortgages. So yeah, that process is under way right now. And then yeah, it's for me. The thing that excites me the most is having yellow value be the go to place. Whenever somebody thinks you know what is a property worth I want I want them straight away to think oh yellow value just the same way, you know like. Google.

Yeah, Google or Wikipedia or you know, that everyone has a go to or Chachi BT everyone has a go to place where I, I want to find something out. I'm going to go to that place. If you could give one top tip for home buyers right now, what would it be? So I've noticed in Dubai in particular, there is a real misunderstanding. I would say that up and coming locations and developments, particularly off plan ones are always better than kind of old

dated properties. So people will say, oh, you're much better off, you know, buying something off plan in Dubai S than buying something in Dubai Marina, for example. And I think that's totally not true. You get what you pay for. There's a reason why those primaries are are expensive Downtown Palm Marina. It's because they're prime and they will be prime.

I think in 20 years time. You're you're really taking gamble, buying something off plan in the middle of nowhere, hoping that it's, you know, one day going to appreciate the way that you want. I would say kind of take take

those flashy off plan developments with a big grain of salt. And advice for agents on how they can integrate your platform into their daily routine. Yeah, just use it for free like anyone else would, you know, play around with it. If if you think that it's of value to you, then check out the API So you can, you can plug it directly into your website so that you can have, you know, like a little valuation calculator on your website. Give give your users a little bit more value.

Like I've noticed a lot of agencies will have a, you know, like how much is your property worth? And then you click on it and you just put your number in and then they'll call you. We can make that a lot better. So help to make your website a bit stickier as well? Yeah, for sure. So agents, you could talk to your agency owners. In fact, a lot of them are watching anyway. So it's something that you can integrate into your website to get an instant valuation. Absolutely. OK, nice.

How do people find you? Yeah, I would say at yellow value on Instagram is the main one. Yeah, yellowvalue.com. Where else? Where else would you see me? Probably driving around in the desert or something like that, yeah. OK, alright, anything else for our viewers? Yeah, don't, don't be shy to get in touch if you have any questions or you have any suggestions for things that you would like to see on the site. You know, it's constantly

evolving. So if if there is something that you would like, just just get in touch with us. Yeah. Nice. We welcome feedback. Oh. Absolutely, yeah. OK. Thank you very much, Jack. That was really useful. And lots of golden Nuggets in there and get your own golden Nuggets. Go and have a play on the platform, type in, you know, your property, even if you're renting, just to be curious. Go in, have a play on the platform and let us know in the comments if anything surprised

you on the valuations. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. Thank you.