Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: Are we in a bubble? Is it reasonable to expect just one or two hikes from the world's central banks? Should we be alarmed by the recent selloff in govt bonds?
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: Strait still closed: how long until this matters again? Odds for a late-90s style meltup in US stocks? Has the UK's latest political crisis dashed any hope for an economic revival? What will Xi and Trump talk about?
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: Still no Iran resolution - are we close to a tipping point? Powell's legacy as Fed chair? What will Warsh do? And what about the ECB and other central banks? Is US exceptionalism coming back - is the dollar about to rip?
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: Crisis over - Equities back to all-time highs. Is the stock market right? What are the longer-term implications that markets might be missing? When the disruption to energy markets blows over, will we be back to rate cuts or what will Central Banks do?
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: Have your views on Iran changed from 2 weeks ago? What is the best historical parallel? Passing EnergyShock? Stagflation? Recession? Are the Europeans seriously going to hike rates? Is Gold no longer a safe haven?
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: Has the war in Iran upended your reacceleration thesis? How will central banks respond - is this like 2022, when they all hiked aggressively? Will recent market moves - strong USD, RoW underperformance - reverse if Trump TACOs?
The hosts tackle the pervasive fears of AI leading to economic disaster, presenting a data-driven argument against widespread job losses and for AI as a labor-augmenting force. They then dissect the implications of recent Supreme Court tariff rulings, discussing their impact on fiscal policy, corporate hiring, and the nuanced effect on inflation amidst a global manufacturing revival. Finally, the discussion shifts to the global monetary cycle, questioning central banks' neutral rate estimates and identifying persistent inflation risks, particularly for the US economy and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
This episode delves into the latest US jobs report, revealing "green shoots" and a reacceleration theme despite initial market anxieties. Discussions include the controversial appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, examining whether he'll be a hawk or an opportunist and the potential for policy mistakes related to inflation and the Fed's balance sheet. The hosts also present their "trade of the decade," advocating a significant rotation of investments from US tech into emerging markets, Europe, and Japan, citing valuation and structural shifts in the global economy.
And Japan Vs MMT Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1. What are the lessons from Trump at Davos? Should we just ignore his chaos now? 2. Hassett seems to have dropped out - would Warsh or Rieder be as aggressive in pushing lower rates? 3. To quote Robin Brooks, “Is Japan where MMT goes to die?" Does this matter for global markets?...
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1. What are our new year resolutions? 2. What do you make of the latest Fed-Trump spat- does this change things? 3. Will Trump's affordability drive work? 4. Can productivity revival save US from inflation in 2026?
Growth and Inflation Acceleration far above consensus Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1. What did you make of the Fed decision - is it providing backdoor financing? 2. What are your big non-consensus ideas for 2026? 3. How much does the choice of Fed chair change the outlook - and who do you prefer, Warsh or Hassett?
Fed Cut, AI and the UK Budget Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Is a Fed rate cut now ON? What should we make of therecent FOMC dissent? 2) How is AI actually affecting the economy? 3) What do you make of the recent budgets in Japan andthe UK? What do the different market responses tell us about global markets?...
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Are you more worried by strains in US money markets or equity markets? (2) Will Trump's tariff rebates stoke inflation? (3) How should central banks respond to the AI boom?
Multiple Rate Hikes Next Year? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Fed Reaction - what happens next? 2) Is the K-shaped economy sustainable? Are you worried about credit cockroaches? 3) How is the world looking outside the US? Is the bull case for non-US assets still intact?
Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Trade War Escalation: Will markets care? 2) No Recession this year - How/When does this cycle end? 3) What could burst the AI bubble?
Immigration vs Inflation and AI vs Recession. Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Does the government shutdown matter? 2) Would the US already be in recession without AI? 3) Are deportations inflationary or deflationary?
When it bursts, will it crash the economy? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Is the Labour market starting to crack? 2) Are bonds and equities saying completely different things about the macro outlook? 3) Is AI a bubble (and could it crash the economy)?
Or do we get a major Fiscal Crisis? *Apologies for Freya's audio quality today, her internet cut out halfway through recording, and she needed to switch to her phone Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Why did Powell blink? 2) When will markets care about Fed capture? 3) Are we on the brink of a fiscal crisis (again)?...
Has Trump won H1? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Is Trump winning? 2) Why did central banks turn woke? 3) Is US monetary policy even restrictive with stocks at ATHs?
How would markets react? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1. What happens if Trump fires Powell? 2. Is tariff inflation finally showing up? 3. Are we still seeing policy stimulus in the RoW, or is a TACO leading to complacency there too?
Happy 4th of July to our US listeners! Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1. Why are investors punishing the dollar and not the S&P? 2. Big jobs number. No Fed cut until November? 3. Are we now in a regime of fiscal dominance?
Will Israel-Iran conflict derail markets? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Market impact of Middle East conflict? 2) Still no tariff inflation: can the Fed cut now? 3) Are rising JGB yields a threat to global markets?
Are markets all Bulled up on TACO? S&P 500 all-time highs? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Does TACO trade mean S&P 500 all-time highs are back on the menu? 2) Why were bond yields so high/rising? 3.) Trump's expansionary budget = fiscal crisis, either US or RoW?
Dollar Death or Dollar Decline? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) US-China deal - is the crisis over? 2) Dollar vs the World. Extended Weakness or End of Reserve Currency? 3) Why is the Fed so reluctant to cut? Is it playing politics?
Empty shelves and sudden stops? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1) Did the markets successfully face down Trump? 2) Could we get a sudden stop in imports from China - what would this do to US economy? 3) Is sustained US dollar weakness even possible if the US remains the world's reserve currency?
And the End of US Outperformance Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions This week: 1) Damage already been done? Recession now inevitable? 2) Who blinks first - China or the US? 3) Where are we going? What will the world look like by the end of Trump's term?
Global Recession and is the US now Uninvestable? Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions This week: Is the US now Uninvestable? Should we expect a Global Recession? What should investors do now?
Dario bought the dip, what now? Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions This week: 1. Can the stock market decline CAUSE a recession? 2. Can the Fed still cut if tariffs do happen? 3. Will German stimulus make the ECB hawkish and how will bonds cope?
Dario's Short US/Long RoW has done well, closing time? Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions This week: S&P 500 correction. Is it over or just getting started? Is the US on the brink of Recession? The end of US exceptionalism?
And how the German Elections will alter the entire European growth picture Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions This week: 1) Will there be a Mar-a-Lago accord? 2) German Elections, European and Global impact? 3) Will Dario's Short US/ Long RoW continue to work?
