Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.
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The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging (02:09) - Travel ...
Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - ...
Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3! Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping (01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered (03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs (05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD (06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick (08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb (10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier (20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence (27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback (32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings (35:28) - Bukele Drops...
2026 Trade Values P2 :) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:42) - Part Two Setup (02:31) - Lula at Fifteen (05:17) - Macron Debate (09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime (11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising (13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive (17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick (21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff (24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark (25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising (26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks (31:28) - Javier Milei Debate (34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks (37:42) - Top 10 Countdown (38:01) - Guatemala an...
The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Housekeeping (00:47) - Why We Love Rankings (02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained (06:59) - How We Score Leaders (08:29) - What Trade Value Means (11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap (13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs (19:43) - Starting the Countdown (20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five (26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick (27:44) - Marco Honorable Mentions (30:58) - Dishonorable Mentions and Merz (32:34) - Merz Under Fire (33:41) - ...
Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs. After Dark, as advertised. -- Timestamps: (00:0...
The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introooo (01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions (03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire (07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals (...
Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - After Dark (00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter (03:01) - From Sports to Iran (03:36) - Oil Shock Signals (05:46) - Ceasefi...
Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston (01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter (04:12) - Th...
China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be. Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Housekeeping (01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter (01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes (03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality...
Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts (00:56) - Hero Principal Story (02:07) - Bingo Card Banter (04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signa...
Jacob and Marko delve into the precarious Iran-Israel ceasefire, with Marko arguing Iran is rationally cashing in on Strait of Hormuz tolls, while Jacob fears spoilers. They also cover Taiwan's KMT signaling a shift toward China, the unexpected competitiveness of eight Senate seats, Trump's low economic approval, and their enthusiastic adoption of Claude AI for professional workflows. The episode touches on global energy transit, the efficacy of US and Israeli strikes, and the long-term implications of these geopolitical shifts.
We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :) -- Times...
The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max. -- T...
Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ????? They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup (00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter (01...
Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello! (01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap (02:15) - Trump War Quotes (02:54...
Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:47) - Oval Office Firings (01:29) - Is Thi...
We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it. -- Timestamps: (01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson (01:26) - Why Hormuz ...
Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil inf...
The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe. History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters si...
No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation. Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign...
You've been writing us questions, thoughts, prayers, and lambasting criticism for months - so today we're finally taking a dive into the inbox. Holy crap there's a lot here. Y'all mentioned The Wire , TDSDS, starting careers in geopolitical analysis, tech nationalism, the balkanization of the internet, and sooooo much more. Tune in to hear it all :) Thanks y'all. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:33) - The Wire (05:25) - Media Consumption and Bias (06:46) - Trump Derangement Syndrome and Strate...
The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Current Events (02:00) - US-India Trade Deal...
The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system -- Times...
A chill manifesto against lazy thinking. A low-key diatribe about our preconceptions. Marko and Jacob take a second, amidst all the chaos of January 2026, to tear into the core failure of most geopolitical analysis - Bias. Real analysis means stripping away emotion, nationalism, and ego, then stress-testing your views until they break. From Trump and Canada to Russia, markets, and personal discipline, the point is simple: if you can’t argue the other side convincingly, you’re not an analyst—you’...
Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia. -- Timestamps: (00:49) - Int...
Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil. Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "an...
The Cousins™ dismantle the lazy myths swirling around Venezuela, U.S. power, and the idea that every successful strike is a reusable template. This is about oil, incentives, and why markets consistently misunderstand force until it’s already been applied. Most importantly, this episode is a warning against one of the most dangerous impulses in geopolitics: assuming yesterday’s clean win guarantees tomorrow’s easy one. When credibility is tested and restraint looks optional, the real risk isn’t c...
Welcome to another normal week in geopolitics - on your left, you'll see the Trump administration (allegedly) flying into Caracas at 1am and walking Nicolás Maduro out the door. No moral sermons, no democracy talk, just raw power politics, naked and unapologetic. Jacob and Marko unpack what this moment says about American empire, hypocrisy fatigue, regime change fantasies, and why history, from Panama to Iran, keeps repeating itself. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Podcast An...
Geopolitics isn’t just policy memos and grim men in bad suits... it’s explosions, bad decisions, and unintended consequences (preferably set to a great score). The movies that we obsess over aren’t accidental; they’re training wheels for understanding power. War films that explain absolutely nothing. Spy thrillers where everyone is in the wrong. Resource dramas where greed wins (reality?). Collapse stories where systems rot from the inside. Cinema is where geopolitics drops the pretense and tell...
