Tariff Pause

This is Gary and Shannon and you're listening to kf I AM six forty the Gary and Shannon Show on demand on the iHeartRadio app.

So we have substantial development in the home.

You're getting it, pet, No, he's finally filed. Those are the only two options. I can't think anything else will be.

We have cut the cord, canceled direct TV. Yes, oh yeah, no landline, no direct TV.

You guys are like moving off the grid.

We're amish. We're amish.

Well listen.

It's probably the only safe corner of the economy that hasn't been hit lately.

This is the most shocking thing about the story about direct TV. My husband says, I'm going to call and cancel it. I said, thank you, because I can pinpoint the most frustrating moments of my life, and three out of five are a call with direct TV. Okay, I mean, it's been hell through the years, and it's just so frustrating. And it's usually when the football package isn't working, when I can't get the.

Forty nine ers.

Un So I'm already in an emotional stage. Sure anyway, and I ended up crying. I've ended up crying with direct TV. At least three times in the past. So when he offered a call in cancel, I thought, God, bless you. He said, the call, the whole call to cancel the service with direct TV took four minutes, four minutes, to which I said, maybe we shouldn't cancel. When have you ever had a call with Direct TV that was four minutes?

Never?

Never?

Well, Direct TV stock is doing fine today despite the fact that you have canceled the service. And we saw the thousands of points that were lost on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the course of the week, and then yesterday after the President had it about face when it came to tariffs, and we saw it go up more than two thousand points again, down sixteen hundred points, that's about four percent. S and P five hundred is down five percent. Nasdaq is down about five and a

I mean, these are.

In terms of the volatility and what we've seen in the market in just the last two weeks is more than I can remember in any even the crash of two thousand and eight. This is something that's just unprecedented. Just the swings that we have seen over the course of the last few days. Oil is down below sixty bucks a barrel. I mean all of this because of the uncertainty. We do not know what's going to happen.

I like that.

Jacket, thank you. You know why I like it.

Because it doesn't have a collar.

It's like it's dressy, but it's not dressy.

It's comfortable, doesn't look comfortable too comfortable, it doesn't look it's a good color for you on you, and it's just a great jacket, Thank you. It kind of reminds me of my grandfather. He would always wear a suit, but he did have a similar jacket like that, which meant it was fun time. Like it meant like we go out for a drive to the windmill or something. Yeah, the windmill and in San Francisco and sunset. Oh, okay, you know the one I knew, the one near Ocean Beach,

I don't know.

I'm glad. I remind you of a grandfriend. You know what I mean.

Bottom line is I adored my grandfather Grandpa. No, no, no, no, it's a great jacket. I ruined that compliment. It started off really well, started off nice, it started getting a.

Little he was scary.

And you said, it looks comfortable, but it doesn't look or no, it looks, but it doesn't look comfortable.

It does.

I mean, I didn't want to make it sound like it looks schleppy. So I wanted to say it doesn't look comfortable because I feel like if I say it looked comfortable, then it would come out like it looks schleppy.

Okay, do you know who did not pay attention to one moment of the stock market barfing yesterday, barfing good and barfing bad? No, no, anybody who was at the Masters.

Ah in shorts, not in shorts.

There's a funny, funny article on the Wall Street Journal today about the Masters will draw a lot of high profile, big money people just because it's the world's most exclusive golf tournament. Right, you cannot have your cell phone with you when you're walking as a patron. Don't call it a fan as a patron walking through Augusta, nashvill Well, isn't that.

Best case scenario. It's a big money person. It's like in the White Lotus when the guys lost his entire net worth and you couldn't have cell phones at the resort. It was perfect for him in the family because they couldn't see the devastation that was befalling them currently.

Right, I mean, yesterday, they knew they were in for a bad day. They probably had no clue when the president turns it back and they'd jump up fifteen or twenty percent.

I'm sure they got wind of that, not on the course they I'm sure they did.

I'm sure.

It's like cell phones on the sideline. You're not allowed to have cell phones on the sideline, but everybody knows when something happens.

No, they didn't.

The way that they described it in the Wall Street Journal is these guys were blissfully ignorant until they got their phones back as they were leaving Augusta.

Well, then that's good news.

Yeah, and that was the thing is, But these guys live and die moment to moment in the stock markets these days. Yeah, just these you know, well, if.

They were that serious and they shouldn't have gone to Augusta.

Well, some of them, I would assume probably did cancel plans, like, yeah, now's not the time for me to take a day off.

That sounds beautiful, doesn't it.

And they talk about especially the people that are playing, they talk about it just seems to be more involved.

The fans are more involved because there's no distractions.

They're not worried about taking a selfie with in the background or Jordan's speach.

They should be banned from everything.

That'd be great.

When I think about Augusta, it's like you can hear the silence, right, it's just this this morning relaxing feel.

I was watching some of the early rounds. I just had it on on one of the computer screens back there, and it was just peaceful.

The sound of birds chirping on a golf course. I just love it.

If we could just have birds chirping in here from time to time, I think that would be nice. If we did a segment where we just had birds in the background, I think that would be pretty nice. I mean, not aggressive birds, but just like Rose Garden white house birds.

Could we do it minutes? Yeah, we could do that.

I think we should do that when we do our wellness segment.

Could we do that?

We can try it? How about that?

Okay? Maybe like cocaine? What is that?

Don't try that.

Don't try cocaine.

No, but birds, But birds are much a better thing to just try.

Once.

I like this show, I should apologize.

Are you distracted today?

I had a lot of coffee.

Ah, I had an extra couple of shots, Davy, don't encourage this.

Oh it's fun to listen to.

Yeah, okay, is that right?

You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM.

Six forty stalks.

Down sharply one day after Trump announced that pause on Terrace for ninety days, obviously a huge rally on Wall Street yesterday.

You know what I was thinking.

I was having one of those moments that you and I have had ever since we got that tip on bitcoin all those years ago, of like where we're sitting here, we're watching everything happen, yet we do nothing, Like we we know it's going to happen. We knew that the stock market was down, We knew that he would back off of this because he does not have the appetite to continue getting beaten to s on Wall Street. We knew that the stock market would rally once he did.

We have, like to make a twenty two dollars, right.

I don't know if it's I think a lot of people did pull the trigger on that who follow these things because it was obvious. It was obvious the stock market was down. It was obvious that Trump wasn't going to let it stay down, So why not make some moves then and then when he and then when he does make his move, and it goes up, and then you unload and then everything evens out today. Right, that's how you make money the stock market. Yet you and I sat here watching it all and just went.

I'll speak for yourself. Oh really, No, I didn't. How would I?

Well, don't you have somebody that's smart in your life?

I do have somebody with dollars? But I didn't. I didn't even think about it.

I mean, I it's that's one of those things that and again the difference between me and someone who has their phone taken away because they're a patronate to masters right now is that that's not something that I can you imagine. And this is why those guys jump out of the buildings on Wall Street. It's such a die I live and die by the sword. You're going to destroy your internal organs doing that.

Now.

For those anybody who made money yesterday, great for you, Good for you. And for everybody who lost money in their four oh one k and then got it all back and now they're seeing it go away again.

Stop looking at your four to a one K.

Yeah.

I saw a couple of tweets in the past couple days of professional athletes are big money people being like I finally looked and it's off.

It's like, what are you doing?

Why are you?

What are you doing?

Now?

I'll say this, we have the benefit of not retiring anytime soon.

That's true, and athletes do not have that benefit.

Well, I mean, but they also they're looking at millions of dollars that are being invested. So there, yeah, they see three hundred thousands money, it's going to be a couple thousand, right, So that's just one of those things that they've always told you is unless you need it tomorrow, stop looking at it. You're just going to drive yourself crazy.

It's like a sore, you know, you know it's there like this, like my my injury from my fall.

Okay, look at it. It almost looks like it's bruising a little bit.

Did it?

Did you bruise it or just scrape it?

Well?

I noticed on day two that it wasn't just a laceration.

It was a contusion.

So it is bruised because it was it rose, So yeah, it was also a bruise.

So a contusion, a laceration, and an abrasion. Is that what we're dealing with?

A slow speed fall. I wouldn't have said a laceration. I would set an abrasion.

Abrasion?

Yeah, this slow speed fall. Was that the only place that contacted the ground?

I also, you know, just like every other child, I scraped.

Up my palm, the inside of my palm.

Were you wearing closed toed shoes? No, I was wearing flip flops. Oh that's right, flip flop toe.

And Miss Patricia is a very pissed off about She's very angry about my flip flop usage. She says, you know, shoes were invented for a reason, you need to wear them. You don't wear shower shoes around. That's ridiculous.

A lot of people do, though.

Maybe that's why I do love that your imaginary friend chides you for your shoe choices.

Right, It's like when I hurt my achilles, or I thought I hurt my achilles, and I said, hey, I don't know what to do about this.

I'm coming from the world of football.

And she said, well, before you go under the knife with your five million dollar contract, why don't you just try some hot cold and rubbing it like, yes, accurate, You're right. She's very real with me. My imaginary friend, Tyler.

Durden spoiler alert is as a ballet teacher as opposed to a bare knuckle.

Oh, she'll punch you right in the face.

Well, I'm not saying she wouldn't. I'm just saying that.

So as we see the euphoria fade a bit after Donald Trump paused the tariffs, most of them, i should say, for about ninety days, the reciprocal tariffs, at least. There are questions about what's going to happen. What is the future of our relationship with China. A couple of different places wrote it up today. We are in for a divorce. That the US and Chinese economies are head for a monumental split, is the way the New York Times put it. None of it is great news as of today, could

We're going to be talking up next with the head of equity trading at web Bush Securities. This is somebody who has spent his career looking at global markets forecasting what we can expect if a forecast can be made. We'll talk to him about what they're talking about over there at web Bush.

When we come back.

You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM. Six forty US.

Stocks today surrendering more than half of their historic gains from yesterday. We want to figure out what it all means and what we can anticipate happening for the rest of the week.

So Hawkmanwellian is the managing director, head of Equity Trading at web Bush Securities and can help shed some light on all of this. We hope first of all, so Hawk, thanks for taking time for us today. Let's discuss what we know has happened over the course of say, the last twenty four hours in terms of the way the markets reacted. Not a surprise that we saw a significant and immediate jump on Wall Street yesterday. Is it a surprise at all that it pulled back quite a bit this morning?

Thanks for having me back on. You know, it may be a surprise to many that we've you know, pulled back as hard as we have again today. But I don't know if it really should be such a surprise, because we kicked, you know, from yesterday effectively coming out deciding to pause higher reciprocal tariffs for ninety days, so we basically kick.

It out ninety days.

However, the the the headwind to uncertainty in stocks, equities, markets, et cetera, still persists, and I think that's what investors are having trouble or certainly grappling with again today. And you know, we're down some five hundred basis points on the S and P five hundred.

We know that the terriffs are going to stay in place against China, it said about one hundred and twenty five percent.

I believe.

But one of the things that was not repealed yesterday was the ten percent across the board tariff. If that was all we saw, a ten percent across the board tariff that President Trump announced on inauguration day or whenever, where do you think we'd be Would we still be in a position where we were talking about trade war tariff war?

Uh? So, very good question. Two things to that.

Number One, if we saw just a ten percent, then I think we would have a meaningful rally from these levels because it would remove a lot of uncertainty.

The second thing I would.

Say to that, though, is you know, the China tariff and the reciprocal China tariff, like, we just don't know yet if it's one hundred and twenty four percent number one hundred percent, we don't know, and that can really change if if it doesn't, I think we're gonna have a lot of a lot of headwinds still at this market.

I would imagine we don't settle.

At some hundred plus percent tariff with China, I would think that that gets negotiated lower. But that plus, if we did go to ten percent with everybody else, I think that would be quite the meaningful upside from current levels for equity prices?

Are there safe zones away from the tariffs that have hit China and the tariffs seed they've hit us back with.

I would say, I mean, I think I may have discussed this on the program the other day. Safe zones, if you will, really today, around consumer staples, around some of healthcare, and around the utilities. I think these are probably the safer plays within equities today given everything that we know. But again an extremely fluid situation, and again we just don't know how these things will settle out.

Stuff down the road.

Imagine if we got some clarity about, you know, exactly what the tariff percentages or the metrics will actually end up being, that could prove to be a nice tailwind for stocks.

There are a lot of people that took advantage of this. We were talking earlier. I was talking earlier just you know, completely uneducatedly talking about it. And we've been sitting here watching this happen. We knew that the stock market was taken a pummeling. We knew that we saw it happening in real time. We also knew that, or at least I felt like Trump wasn't going to be able to let that go on for a longer period of time.

Were there a lot of people that took advantage of this?

I mean, if if we're being able to predict what was going to happen just following the news and personality where other I would assume there's a lot of people that took advantage of this.

Yeah, so you know that that's very difficult to say, I would think from.

Our advantage anyways, we certainly did see some folks taking advantage yesterday of that big move higher in prices, just really across the board, every almost almost everything was higher yesterday. We certainly saw people take advantage of that. But I would also couple that with we also did see some decent pent up demand for stocks that have been beaten

Just really beaten up as of late.

So there's a lot of value out there today, and you know, we saw some of that yesterday from investors really on both sides of the trade.

Well, this conversation is not going to end anytime soon. This uncertainty is going to live for some time, so we will definitely talk again. So Hawkmanueli and again managing director ahead of equity Trading at Wedbook Securities, thanks for your time.

Thanks have a great morning by pleasure.

Thank you all.

You bet this is uh.

It is going to be an interesting couple of weeks as we go through whatever is about to happen again. The Dow is down seventeen hundred points right now, So the Dow, the S and P, the Nasdaq all down somewhere between four and six percent for a day, giving up all of the games that we saw.

At the end of the day yesterday, I ought some good news.

I love good news and I love a fun story, and this is just that. Two friends giving each other the same birthday card for.

Eighty one years.

You know we should start doing that.

That's yeah, we're too old for that.

First of all, you're you don't seem to be a big birthday card person.

I'm the time. No, I'm awful at that.

You are? Really, why do you think you're awful at that? It's an effort thing.

It's effort thing. Now, what else would you like to get on me for? Is there anything else I can.

Oh my god, it's so funny. Let's come back. I apologize Thursday flop pointing. I really liked that jacket.

I know that's why I took it off.

You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM six forty.

The President is meeting with his cabinet right now.

He has made some comments about Tariff's the terriff fight that's going on.

It's that low lighting Apprentice. It's so weird lighting situation that's going on in the cabinet room.

It's exact same lighting when there.

Was somebody being eliminated from the Apprentice from my twenty year old memory.

Yeah, it's just it's such a weird lightings.

I don't know who he's got stage directing that, but stage managing the cabinet meeting. But he's going around, he's been asking questions of Hegseth sitting to his left, Howard Lutnike, the Commerce secretary, now Linda McMahon, the Education secretary. So anything comes out of this, we'll bring it to you.

So I question I asked, the question you asked is two billion dollars.

Where's he getting this from?

Because you're saying we're making two billion dollars a day and he's repeated that since the eighth of February.

Right, that's he just said that during the beginning of this cabademy.

All Right, So according to Congressional Research Services, which take it for what you will, it is supposed to be nonpartisan, has been for a very long time. Congressional Research Services, the answer is no. According to them, we're not taking two billion.

Dollars a day. No real word on where that come from.

In the fiscal year of twenty twenty four, they collected about seventy seven billion in tariffs, which would add up to about twenty three million a day. He did increase tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China prior to April ninth, memory first said that April eighth, but these alone would not have been anywhere near to increase those tariffs tenfold.

No, and when the Treasury Secretary, when Scott Bessent has come out and said that this could bring in as much as six hundred billion a year, he was talking about the maximum amount on maximum tariffs maximum reciprocal tariffs, which were repealed yesterday. So he keeps saying that we're bringing in about two billion, and he said just a moment ago that it could be as high as three and a half billion. But it doesn't sound like we're bringing in even a tenth of that.

So before those tariffs were rescinded. You had thirteen tariff related presidential actions.

That was bringing the.

Daily tariff take to zero point four billion, so.

About four hundred million, okay, yeah.

Still far short of the two hundred billion or two billion dollars a day claimed. So I don't know where that figure's coming from. But if you're going to crunch the if you're interested in it, if it's wowing you, if it sounds good, it does sound good, but it's not completely accurate, at least according to the people who have access to all of the numbers and have crunch them. It's neither here nor there, is it. It's just kind of a fun little Where did that come from? And is it accurate?

Numbers?

Tariffs, how much you're taking in, how much you're letting out. It's kind of like crime stats. You can fudge them anyway you want to fudge them. The numbers are fun that way. Statistic fungible, Yeah.

Fun, We put the fun and fungible, got it. Do you want to do our happy story when we come back?

Yes? I do.

Okay, On the other side, the happiest story of the day. You've been listening to the Gary and Shannon show. You can always hear us live on KFI AM six forty nine am to one pm every Monday through Friday, and anytime on demand on the iHeartRadio ap