This is Gary and Shannon and you're listening to KFI AM six forty the Gary and Shannon Show on demand on the iHeartRadio app.
Twenty four hours makes a pretty significant difference in the posture we find ourselves in.
President Trump.
Somehow was able to get a ceasefire deal, it appears, between Iran and Israel.
He is fancying himself as the framer of this ceasefire, as the guy who went in and made the deal and got it done, and then he advertised it as such. To me, this is clearly someone in Iran is just pissed off and says, you know what, I am not giving up, I am not surrendering, and fires off whatever he has control over.
One of the Yeah, last gas.
Yeah, We've seen it before. We've seen it in conflicts before.
So there was there was a very long drawn out description of what was going to happened with the two sides between Israel and Iran when that first deal came out yesterday afternoon our time, and it was a suggestion that one side was going to stop whatever it's doing, and then six hours later the other side was going to stop whatever it was doing, and then twelve hours after that both sides would be committed to a complete ceasefire for twenty four hours, after which a full listen.
There are a lot of steps on there. It didn't make a lot of sense. Something happened, someone fired off a missile or missiles it looks like towards northern Israel didn't cause any damage. Whether it was taken down or it fell into an area that was not populated also unclear. But there was then a phone call that took place between President Trump and Benjamin and Yahoo because Israelis were like, oh, we're not going to let that stand. You can't just
break a ceasefire and not have us punch back. So the President this morning is on Air Force one and he's headed towards the Netherlands for the big NATO summit that's coming up this week, which by the way, also takes on a completely different tone, and he joint is pissed.
He went after both Israel and Iran.
You know, when I say, okay, now you have twelve hours, you don't go out in the first hour. It just drop everything you have on him. So I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iran either, but I'm really unhappy if Israel's going out this morning because the one rocket that didn't land, that was shut perhaps by mistake that didn't land. I'm not happy about that. What we have, we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know
what the food they're doing. Do you understand that?
And then he walked away and immediately boarded air Force.
I'm sorry, Marine won.
I asked you.
I don't remember publicly hearing a president used the F word like that.
Just shows how pissed off he just is.
Considering. He put his name on this ceasefire. Yeah, well, and he named the war. He did the twelve Day War call of the twelve Day War as it should be known from here on out, the Twelve Day War. Like he's writing the history books.
I'm pretty good at marketing.
This is a brand manager.
Barackravid is a writer for Axios, and he talks about this phone call that allegedly took place. Well, we know it took place, but the tone of the call between President Trump and Benjamin NETANYAHUO, which apparently convinced the Israeli Prime minister to basically stop whatever retaliatory attack he was going to impose on Iran for that lone missile that was fired despite their being a ceasefire.
One US official told me, Trump was very direct and firm with what he told Natani. He basically told nat aboard mission and Nataniau, according to Israeli officials, told the President look and to board mission. The Ranians violated the ceasefire, the fire the missile. I have to do something. So at the end, Atanyao told Trump that he's going to
scale back this attack. And from a list of a dozen targets, many of them in the center of Tehran, at the end, the IDF struck one target, one radar outside of Tehran.
Okay, there's a couple things to keep in mind here. There have been seven four and ninety seven ceasefires in the Middle East in the last one hundred years.
This is not.
All kudos and all credit to the parties that are involved here for this being a ceasefire to ratchet down what we saw a week ago as the doorsteps to World War three. So that's good, but this does not mean this is over by any means. And in fact, we know that an Iraqi army spokesman has said that drones hit some military bases in Iraq, including some where American forces are stationed. That is very different than the missile barrage that we saw yesterday towards the American air
base in Kaher. But this does not necessarily mean it is over all. Ceasefires in that part of the world are tenuous at best.
Yes, but this one seems to be like it is going to be lasting in my opinion, Number one, because Iran has nothing, and what does Iran have Iran everyone's trying to pretend that they have won this or trying to frame this or spin this or whatever you want to say about that.
How they have won. Whether it's United States coming.
In and decimating Iran's nuclear program and then putting in place a ceasefire, whether it's Israel taking full advantage of the attacks from October seventh and going after Hesbalah and Hamas and now Iran and enlisting the United States to do its dirty work, or Aroan striking that air base and doing so stopping all further attacks from Israel and the United States so that they can rebuild their nuclear program.
Everybody has a way to spin this so that they have won at this moment, and I don't think anybody wants to ruin that, all right? Coming up next, oil prices dropping further. We talked about this yesterday, stops pulling close to their all time high on hopes that this thing has died down.
We'll get you the details when we come back.
Also a chance for you don't want a thousand bucks. Right around the corner, you're.
Listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM six forty.
I love the way the Associated Press writes this up of the Oklahoma City Thunder's victory parade for winning the NBA Finals is today, but listen to how the AP writes it up. Oklahoma City's unwavering fans finally get to celebrate a championship after several close calls and heartbreaking moments.
The past two decades. Get the hell out of here.
The Thunder has been in existence since two thousand and eight. Unwavering fans. Come on, Talk to the Bills fans.
You know what I mean.
Talk to a fan base that has been through it for more than two decades.
How about you know the Bears.
There's so many fan bases that look at that sentence and just chuckle to themselves.
Right since two thousand and.
Eight, somebody somewhere as an eighty seven year old. I don't know White Sox.
Exactly who lived through the twenties. He lived through the Black Sox scandal.
Today is expected to be the hottest day of the week back in the Northeast, and municipalities have simply been telling people to stay inside. Temperatures about fifteen to twenty five degrees above average today and some areas will see a heat index that feels like reading of around one hundred and ten degrees and again much more humid back there. Tropical Storm Andre is the first tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic, but it is in the middle
of nowhere. It's not going to go and in fact, they're saying as quickly as it became a tropical storm, it will probably lose powers it makes its way farther north in the Atlantic.
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Extreme heat.
I feel like we do this every year around summer time for you to tell people how to how to be careful. Yeah, hi, high, drink water out of the sun. It's amazing how many people don't know to drink water. It seems like it would be one of those things that you would realize just common sense gets hotter, drink more water.
That's not the case. A lot of people don't drink water. It turns out, well, maybe it's done within the herd a little bit with dehydration.
Well, if you're not smarter.
Though, yeah, yeah, yeah, why not? Why not?
I want you breeding.
The Dow was up four forty seven, and like we talked about yesterday, oil prices, while up four percent on Sunday, were down seven percent yesterday.
I'm sorry, no, I'm affirming.
I love that, and down another six percent already today.
Yesterday's volatility was.
Proven by the fact that oil for brint crude trading was about a twelve dollars swing, which was the widest range of volatility in the last several years. So to give you an idea, the concern was yesterday, at the beginning of the day we knew that Iran was going to retaliate.
They did.
There was discussion about shutting down the Straight of Horn Moose, which we've said multiple times now is basically a route that sees twenty percent of the world's daily oil production shipped through there, that if they were to shut down the Straight of Poor Moves, it was going to cause problems. We were going to see prices spiked to somewhere around one hundred and thirty bucks a barrel.
None of that has come true.
Oil right now is down to six below sixty five dollars of barrels already down about four dollars today, and the expectation is now granted, there are people who have said here in California it doesn't matter.
It does matter.
I mean granted, our gas prices obviously are going to be much higher than the and we know that, we know there's a new tax going in so that part of it is frustrating and anger inducing.
I get it, yes, but it matters greatly for the bigger picture glow. If you zoom out, falling oil prices mean that the pressure is taken off inflation, which means that the FED will be more likely to cut interest rates.
What happens If that happens, Wall Street.
Gets excited because that means the economy gets a boost. It's cheaper for us and businesses to borrow money to buy a car, build a factory.
Those could also give inflation more fuel.
That's why the Fed has been kind of hesitant, very conservative when it comes to cutting rates. However, this might move them closer to doing so, which is huge for the big picture. Obviously, if you're buying a car, buying a home, all the things that are signs of a good economy.
One of the things also is yesterday we're talking about the potential for American oil producers to increase production. One of the things that President Trump had suggested, in fact, on one of the truth Social put one of the many truth Social posts over the last seventy two hours was he's watching you oil producers, and he wants you to crank it up. Drill, baby, drill, and all these other things that he's encouraging oil companies to do but
for a lot of time. For a lot of the companies that produce oil through fracking here in the United States, they're saying, we don't just do it because the President tells us to do it. The President may be a very loud voice, and he may have the ability to sway markets one way or the other, but the market is the biggest voice, and the market, the actual supply and demand, is what forces their hand when it comes to drilling or curbing production, et cetera.
The reason he's saying I'm watching you is because oftentimes oil companies see any sort of strife in the Middle East and they think, oh, we'll earn some extra money here, we'll raise prices and that. In this way, we can say, oh, it's because of what's going on in the Middle East, which yet it has yet to have an impact on the oale companies, certainly not here at the same time
things are going on in the Middle East. Takes some time for them to reach the oil companies and us at the pump, but they totally exploit anything that's going on in the Middle East for their own financial gain.
So that's why saying I'm watching you.
I know it's not hurting you yet or hurting you period maybe, but so if you raise rates, I'm going to see who's doing that, and I'm going to punish you through whatever means I can do.
So here in Washington and Opak right now has increased output they did several weeks ago. So as of right now, there's more crude oil in the market than we actually need. That's why we're seeing these prices go down four dollars a barrel again. As of right now oil below sixty five dollars of barrel on the open market.
Love.
I was just going to say, Republicans do things for oil companies. Democratic presidents not so much. Company is probably more apt to raise the rates a little bit with a Democrat sitting in the office, because there's no way they can explain any sort of break to the whale companies to their constituency.
When we come back, we're going to talk more about what the future is going to hold, whether it's the short term future of the next few days and weeks or a couple of years down the road. Benjamin rad a lecturer in law at UCLA School of Law, is an expert when it comes to foreign policies, specifically that part of the world.
You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM six forty.
We are continuing our coverage of what is going on in the Middle East, our involvement in it as well. Benjamin Rad is a lecture at UCLA Law School. He is an authority on government politics in the Middle East, in particular Iran as well as US foreign policy. And Benjamin Rad it seems like for those who have tracked Iran's nuclear ambition this moment what's going on was not a surprise. It was inevitable, certainly after October seventh.
Indeed, we've known now for very long time about Iran's
nuclear goals and it's been no secret. It's been documented and reported on by the International Atomic Energy Agency, And again, as you mentioned, after October seventh, for many, especially Israelis, it was felt that there was a risk that simply couldn't be tolerated anymore, that its attacks of that nature were capable, and Iran is a supporter of proxy groups like Commas, that it was incumbent upon Israelis and others and allies to prevent Iran from possibly acquiring this level
of knowledge and weaponry and maybe handing it off to others.
Take us over the course in your mind of the last twenty four hours, we were talking about Irani retaliation firing missiles at an air base in Qatar, and then several hours later President Trump announced saying on truth Social that there had been a ceasefire agreed to. Obviously that's been tested already, but to me, this is one of the more impactful twenty four hour periods that we've seen, probably in decades.
What we observed following the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend at fourtoh At Matans and at Esfahan was the intrance of the United States into the conflict, demonstrated that Iran was now fighting a multi front war. It was barely capable of fighting a single front war against Israel, and it became very clear that it was not a war it was going to win. So the calculus really then becomes is is it worth continuing to fight at the risk of the regime toppling?
And for the supreme leader, I's lahaminade I mean, he's been in power since nineteen eighty nine and he's done so not necessarily because he's a debt and then you know, politically, but he's shrewd in the sense of survive, and for him, maintaining the system, maintaining the deocratic system of government they have, was the paramount concern. And so when the risk to the system became evident and clear, that is when he, I believe, decided that it was no longer worth continuing
the struggle, even if it meant an embarrassing loss. And that's really there's no other way to put it. That's what it was. This is a country that for years boasted of its ability to protect its nuclear program, protected its people, protect its proxy groups, and it's been able to do none of those. As the events of the last two weeks of demonstrated.
This theocracy seems to be precarious at best. I know enough to know I know nothing about Iran and what is going on, but I know that from what I've read, it seems like the first time since the nineteen seventy nine revolution that the United States could have a seat at the table in determining what happens with the future, specifically with security in Iran.
Is that accurate.
Well, We're still a ways off from that and at this point, you know, it's all this talk of regime change and the change in the system. Regime change is easy to impose from without, but it can only be endured from within it, meaning it requires a home grown, home led coordination and efforts and a buy in from the public. And that's what's missing at this moment, not because the desire for that isn't there, but because there
is no central leadership. There's no figurehead, there's no one distinct movement to lead the people and their dissatisfaction towards a new system. So until that happens, there's really nobody for the Runnians to engage excuse me, the Americans to engage with directly there. And we still have to see now what cracks appear in the system from within. That's what we have to look up for.
I was sorry to interrupt.
I was just going to ask about the last us Backshaw, his son, I guess, who's been living in exile for four decades, kind of had a message to the people of Iran.
Does he have.
Any political standing there or does he have anybody who who what is his if any is his standing there?
Yeah, that's a great that's a great question. There are a lot of Iranians living in the diaspora who have tremendous affection for Razapahalavi, the Lake Sha son, and also really for the monarchy that existed before. It was seen as sort of the healthy on days of Iranian civilization in the modern era, and so the desire to get back to something like that is amass But that doesn't mean that the people. These people are clamoring for a monarchy.
More so, they're clamoring for the prestige in the life that they enjoyed and that the country enjoyed before the Islamic Revolution. Rezapala does have his admirers and followers, but within Iran it's complicated to know exactly what that is. He hasn't been in that country in almost forty six years. He spent almost all of his life, you know, in the United States, and prior to that, even when he was there he was nineteen when the revolution happened, he
spent a lot of time educated in France. So he doesn't have the direct connection to the people. He is disconnected from the politics and the day to day livest The ordinary Iranians who've been living under this repressive regime have endured. So the concern is that he doesn't have that credibility that he would need with the rank and file, if you will, with the working class, with the social movements, with the labor movements, with ordinary Iranians who are needed
to bring about something like this. Now, that doesn't discount his potential. There's no one else on the scene right now that has his name, recognition or the bona fides in that sense. But that doesn't mean he's the best option. He's just right now the one that is in front of us.
How do we get information about the actual on the ground conditions in Iran? Are we relying on Iranians communicating with their families outside of the country. The government of Iran has every reason to kind of make up stuff about the conditions. How do you get information about what's actually going on there?
That's a fantastic question as well, And we do rely very much on social media, on Iranian social media, Iranians using American social media communicating with the outside world. They know the Internet's been shut down there recently. The government censors in general, so getting a direct feedback and sentiments is very difficult, even under the best of circumstances, and it's not like we can send Western journalists in there to gauge public sentiment and assess the mood of the public.
So we do rely on the link between Iranians living there and their families and friends in the diaspora to provide us with inside and that's that's what I like to rely on as well.
And then a final question, Benjamin, if you can, Iran seems to be in a very weak position in terms of defending itself or certainly going on any sort of offensive.
Do you believe the ceasefire will hold.
Iran has no choice but to hope the ceasefire holds if it did not, if it were not to hold, if it were to continue as we've seen in the last few days, it simply doesn't have the missile stockpiles to continue the conflict. It's not like it can be re armed easily. Unlike Israel, which could be supplied with the United States and let's say other allies. Uran doesn't enjoy that privilege, and so it needs it to hold because also we've seen now the top ranks of its
military leadership decimated. We've seen it's nuclear program compromise completely and its air defenses vanquished altogether. So it's like I said, regime survival was predicated on the fight income to an end. So they will do their best to make sure that it stays quiet. And if they need to do the occasional symbolic performative retaliation like we saw with their strike on the American base in a Patar, that's what we'll see.
But it should not go beyond that because they said, we can't endure any more than that.
Benjamin, Absolutely fascinating stuff. Thank you for your time. Thank you you, bet Benjamin rad Again, Senior Fellow at the UCLA Berkele Center specializing in the Middle East.
All right, coming up next two has nuclear weapons. Let's do a quick little drawdown of where.
Are the world's nukes all over the place?
All?
Do you have one? You have one, don't you? Is it underground? Is it under the pool? It's under the pool? Is that why you're redoing the pool? Are you redoing the pool?
Is that a lie? Are you just trying to get Oh my gosh.
You're listening to Gary and Shannon on demand from KFI AM six forty.
Yesterday the Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to deport people to countries where they have no previous ties. They call this the third country deportation. They lifted an order from a federal judge up in Boston who placed restrictions on the deportations. The judge had issued a nationwide injunction that required the administration give immigrants what he referred to as meaningful advanced notice and a chance
to raise objections. The Supreme Court granted the Trump administration's emergency request to put the injunction on hold.
It's also primary day.
I was just going to say, voters hitting the polls for primary day. I was just googling really quickly because I heard there was a communist making some noise, no idea the guys.
He is a member, I think specifically, is the Democratic Socialist of America Party.
This is Zoran Mam Donnie.
Yeah, okay, So nine Democrats are in the NYC mayoral race. It's a tight contest between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and this communist Zoran Man. Danny, Now, what do you know about Donnie?
Mom?
Donnie?
So, I was listening to a couple different podcasts about this guy because he's a little fascinating very in terms of the field of Democrats, very little experience. I think he's a member of the State House I believe, they call it the House of Representatives in New York State and he's only been there for one term, I believe, and basically came to power on the heels of this Democratic Socialist of America party think AOC Bernie Sanders, people like that, and somehow has generated.
This this ground ground swell of support and money. Which is important that that a couple of weeks ago Cuomo had more than a twenty five point lead on this guy on the field and now they're basically neck and neck going.
Into the primary weeks ago, weeks ago.
That is fascinating that they could move that quickly to get that get that kind of money and support.
And imagine if.
Those granted these two are this is the Democratic primary, they would have to go against Republicans.
Well in the bar is very.
Low here if you've got Andrew Cuomo exactly my point.
This guy was kicked out of the governor's office.
Is this the guy that was the muscly guy that gets handsy with people? Am I getting my muscley guy? Am I getting my Cuomo's mixed up or my New York politicians.
Chris christ is the.
More muscly guy, right, But Andrew was the one who got in trouble for being handsy, got it aggressive, and.
I would put money on Chris also being a handsy guy. That's just my that's just my take on the FAM. A new poll from Emerson Does project that the Socialist will beat Cuomo in the last round of rank choice voting. That's the other thing, not the only headline coming out of New York. There's more primaries and more than thirty city council districts, with Anthony Wiener among those in the running. That's right, Anthony Wiener's looking for his way back in, just like Andrew Cuomo.
No, politics has always been a place for losers and whiners.
Please Dear Jesus, let him back in because I don't live in New York and I want the entertainment.
But isn't it proof that once you get into politics, it's.
It's the coach It's the NFL coaching carousel. Yeah, they just keep turning up. They get it's.
Whack a mole.
They are ousted from one seat and they turn up across the country, or they turn up in another city council district reminds me.
I don't know if I thought about that guy for a while. Used to be the Baylor football head coach, went to Carolina or the ole depot like, yeah, yeah, we're like an apron when he was on the sidelines, Yes, yeah, what was his name?
I can't remember.
God, he was great at Baylor.
Yeah, and then then they put him in the NFL grinder.
I'd have to check it out.
Anyway, we'll get to this story specifically about how many nuclear armed not Matt ruhle yestus.
Oh, okay, he's the head coach at Nebraska.
Is that where he ended?
Yeah, I'm thinking of somebody else.
But he went to the Panthers after Baylor, right, yeah, Well, what are you going to do with Carolina Panthers?
Did you just get your boots stuck in the quicksand at that point, don't you you.
Got to you gotta kick your boots off and try to swim out of there?
Sure do?
All right?
Up next, I've ever heard that? Did you just make that up?
Yeah?
Okay, I like it.
There's weird stuff with that going on in the Tahoe area.
I want to talk about. We spend a lot of time in Tahoe. We grew up there.
You and I have gone there as kids for for years. I've never heard anything like this. This is insane.
I have heard a conspiracy theory about what that actually was, though.
I can't wait.
I love a conspiracy theory to keep your boots on.
I love getting old.
Bar Is lower fricks totally. Wait a minute, it's Tuesday.
Thought it was Monday.
What a great day. Gary and Channa will continue right after this. You've been listening to the Gary and Shannon Show. You can always hear us live on KFI AM six forty nine am to one pm every Monday through Friday, and anytime on demand on the iHeartRadio app.