This is a man who knows numbers. It's a man who knows how to take care of the almighty dollar as well, and as a man that we enjoy having on this show because when it comes to the world of the NFL, no matter what month we're in, he gives us his best. He's always one hundred and ten percent. Whether it's OTAs or in the middle of training camp or December, it's Joe Dolan Fantasy Points dot Com. What's shaking, man.
Oh, guys, nothing much. It's it's the early June and as all of you in the Upstate know, this time of year is the ever never ending struggle of should I water the lawn or is it going to rain?
Sickly, yes, this is a very very challenging time for all of us right now.
Yes, and you get so. I just want everybody to have me in their prayers, because that's that's what's a very very difficult thing for people to have to deal with. But it's looked like it's going to rain all day, and nonetheless it has not. So I went out and gave it a little sprinkle and maybe maybe I'll it'll get topped off here in a little bit.
Yeah, I think so, and it's an unpredictable weather pattern. Exavier Lagette. I know chimed in a minute ago. Xavier, how we're looking weatherwise? The rest.
One.
Let's see if Bryce Young cain start raining on the league this year in terms of his talent level showed in spades at the end of last year. Joe Dolanfantasy Points dot Com. Let's start with this Carolina Panthers team. It's it's always tricky to project. I think the second year for a head coach who's just come in and the season always has a different personality year to year.
But that season was more about I think how they stayed competitive in the close losses and what they showed in those games than any win over maybe a New Orleans or in Arizona. Uh, talk to me about Carolina. We've done this conversation otaser happening. Where are you with them? And what gives you hope and what gives you pause?
Well, the thing that would give me the most pause for Carolina would be just the wondering how much of Bryce Young's second year kind of elevation is for real. And I don't think I'm breaking any news to you guys, because It would be a lot easier to say from my perspective that Bryce Young's second season improvements are real if he did it for the entire season. But here's the important thing. When it comes with Bryce Young, there
is a there's a line of demarcation, right. They put him on the bench, they had him hit the reset button. Andy Dalton gets rear ended or whatever happens, and then Bryce Young comes in and looks like a completely different player, and the numbers kind of back that up. I mean, look through his first eighteen games in the NFL, Bryce Young through just touchdowns, through four touchdowns actually in eight of his first.
Agents and Joe, Joe and you know better than I do, but let me help our listeners understand how many of those passes were like one yard bubbles. It was really rough to watch.
And like, that's just a one point nine percent touchdown rate. Well, he improved that to a four point seven percent touchdown rate from Week eight on last year. And now you've got Ted Tyroe McMillan to come in. I think we've we've established on this program that we're gonna call him King ted Ted, even though he doesn't prefer ted.
I kind of like I like you going against the grain here because I want to take you to training camp with me and have n't punch you in the nose. From that, I'm calling t mac until. Look I like King Ted. I like it. Yeah, Okay, we got to keep pumping King T Mack with that compromise. Go ahead. I'm sorry.
I will say with Bryce, we're pretty optimistic at Fantasy points. We have him rejected for essentially twenty one touchdown passes. Now, depending on which sportsbook you look at, sixteen and a half is about the line for him. Well, he threw fifteen in just fourteen games last year, of which only twelve were starts. And you mentioned all those those kind
of short touchdown passes that he had as a rookie. Well, you'll also have to keep in mind this, and I think this is an underrated aspect that would indicate that Bryce Young was, even beyond the obvious statistics, was just a far improoved player last year near the goal line, he was running for touchdowns. He had six rushing touchdown
last year he had zero as a as a rookie. So, based on your observations, I would need some time to dig into the Fantasy points data suite to really look at how exactly how many short touchdown passes he had, but the numbers would indicate that, based on the number of rushing touchdowns he had visa VI as a rookie, the touchdown that he was throwing in his second year were of a higher difficulty pass than maybe the ones
that he was throwing for in twenty twenty three. So that's the concern I have for Carolina is how much of Bryce Young's improvements are going to be real. But that being said, I think you can marry up the numbers in the iests and you know, just because I'm a stat nerd like which I am, but I much more pride myself. I'm just being somebody who loves watching the games. So that's pay my bills, but I love
watching football. You guys know, well, the the Bryce Young that we saw at the end of last season that was the top half of the league started.
It absolutely absolutely was. And you know what, it wasn't just about the acumen with the timing and the rhythm and the poise. It was really more about commanding the huddle, relaxing, smiling, and it was also up to the offensive line in a way to sort of measure up to what we thought they could be with Hunt and Lewis. And obviously you've got a great depth corp there with the guys that they can step right in and play good football.
And Shuba Hubbard as well. I mean a guy that obviously we can talk fantasy with him, I suppose, because you've got other running backs who are in the fold always with Carolina and that's how Canalis runs it. But I think getting back to Bryce for a second, you look back, you just hear from Pro Football Reference and I've got don't I got my ass stats here in a minute, But I'm just going to the easiest plays.
It turned around to me in the Denver game. I know they got boat Race there, but late in the game he opened up the game with a nice slant on an RPO. Two. Of all people, that Guett who was catching everything early this season. That was against Sir Tan.
That was a great play against a great corner. That was a fifteen yard touchdown pass later in the game to Cocher, and then the Tampa game twenty five yard pass eighty three he has right now, I can tell you, uh seven fourteen seventeen nineteen touchdown passes of ten or more yards, and I would say that that is a very good improvement versus where we were early on. But back to the running game in general in the NFL. Start with Chewba Hubbard and what he's meant to Bryce,
and then let's expand it a little bit. Is there really a trend or is it just sort of like, Okay, for a couple of years, Derek and Josh Jacobs and these guys were right there where they needed to be. Are we seeing a shift back to maybe two thousand and three, because I don't think we're quite there, but it is refreshing.
Yeah, So I love a couple of minds with this. I remember a number of years ago on my serious ExM radio shows talking to Adrian Peterson, who obviously you got you guys know Adrian Peterson as one of the great bell cow back of his era. He I think you can make an argument he might have been the best who ever to ever put on a uniform. And he was definitely somebody who was of the mind that I need my carries to really become the player that
that that I need to be. It's almost like, you know, if you're a golfer, and you got to go warm up on the driving range before you before you take your driver out on the course. You really got to get a feel for how you're swinging that day. And I want to look back to Derrick Henry at the start of his career. If you look at Derrick Henry, look at some of his numbers. In his first couple of years with Tennessee, he was splitting work with DeMarco Murray.
And then Tennessee made a made a signing. Uh you might remember Beon Lewis from the Patriots, Well, the titles As signed him to essentially be they wanted Dion Lewis to be their main running back with Derrick Henry as kind of a rotational yeah, and like yeah, you look at the sizes, it's wild, but you don't look at Derrick Henry's numbers. Like in his first two three years of his career. This was not the King Henry that
we know now and I remember from Alabama. But they switched did the Titans this way through that season to a team that leaned on Derrick Henry as the foundational U of their offense, and Derek Henry overnight became Henry. He's the running back we remember now, and look, I'm not gonna I don't want to compare Touba Hubbard Derrick Henry,
Derek Henry is a one of one. But I do wonder if Chuba Hubbard, the guy who kind of looked like a rotational plotter for a couple of years in the NFL, he became a guy who when he finally started getting carries, he started getting into a rhythm. Yes, and he started feeling the game a little bit more. Maybe the game slowed down a little bit for him. And I wonder if Chubahabbard is just the kind of running back who needs that consistent work. Now, look, there's
always going to be backups. They went out they signed Rico.
Dabble ran for a thousand yards, Like, oh yeah, they have a surprise to many, But I did see the logic go ahead, and I do think they have a big stable of backs though to deal.
With here Trevory Tan obviously, they they drafted him, and he's got some speed to him. But I just do wonder if you know, from a fantasy perspective, to round this into like an overarching like conversation is maybe it's just teams were starting to get so cute with these running back rotations. And while the logic is sound, oh, we have fresher legs and this guy knows his role and that guy knows his role, well, maybe some of these guys just weren't getting getting their feet under them.
And make my nerds hate. Is this why nerds hated running backs? It was the rotations? Is that? Is that what it came down to. There's nerds and then this fantasy don't take it. There's analytics, and then there's the fantasy crew that just wants consistency. Would line ups right? Yeah?
I mean, like, would I love to go back to the days when like there was thirteen, fourteen, fifteen guys running for one thousand yards every Yeah.
There old Campbell, Baby.
I don't think you know, like you go look at the Oh god, who's let me let me think of it. Let me think of a panther from back in the DA Davis never have been h well, Stephen Davis was, you know, he was great for fantasy for a while. But I think I'm thinking Anthony Johnson.
Oh my gosh, okay, yeah, that thing go, that's like ninety six, that's welcome into the league. There's toys that misfit toys come together. AJ, you rushing for a thousand, you're right about him.
Yeah, and an all timer for me, Old Fred Lane from Lane College.
Oh my gosh, Fred Lane so many I do. AJ's the best one though, because it was like a good line. Give me four yards two hundred times. Just do that four yards two times.
You look at Anthony john I think he ran for like twelve hundred yards in the season one year, And I think Fred Lane ran for like nine hundred and like half a season one year.
Out of the game, and then that happened to go ahead.
Yeah, I think Fred Lane, Fred Lane was like one his job because Tim Yakabatuca couldn't stay.
On the field.
So like you look at guys like that, and like for somebody like in this day and age, a guy running for nine hundred yards and like half a season would be an all timer fantasy season, I doubt Fred Lane or Anthony Johnson. Back of the day we're topping running back leader boards, you know, for fantasy I have to go back and front the numbers. But Touma Hubbard, he kind of had that bell cow roll last year. He ran for twelve hundred yards. He caught forty passes.
So we've got him projected as the thirteenth running back for fantasy. Depending on how you build your team, if you start heavy one receivers, maybe get a fight end in there to Hubbard could be your number one running back for fantasy. And I think you could. You could do okay with that?
Wow, all right, cared me last year. Trey Falco, Trey Falcon. It's all your Steelers, I'm sure. Is the next question for Joe Dolan fantasy points about that chue Be Hubbard prediction. I'm I like it.
Think I know who's on my projected fantasy team.
We got running back and you don't.
I don't know.
It's Caleb Johnson, Caleber hey Man, he's looking. Yeah, we can talk about Caleb Johnson the second. I will say.
We're in the projected over five hundred portion of the off season for the Steelers right now. You know we started off how it always goes Owen six. That's how the Steelers six spring.
Yeah, I know. Yeah. Uh.
I want to talk quarterback for a second though. I really want to put this whole Will Howard thing to rest there. There's this narrative that will Howard is the next Tom Brady, the next Big Ben Roethlisberger.
He throws like him whatever. He's a nice guy too, and that's I mean that he's endearing to the He's saying all the right thing, saying all the right thing on pay I mean, he's the sixth round pick.
I heard he was projected fourth. He ended up going for the sixth round. If you were coming down into the season, there's still no Aaron Rodgers. Have no idea what's going on with him? We know what we've got, Mason Rudolph. Do you give the kid a chance?
Do you let Will Howard just trot him out there? Do you just run with Mason Rudolph? What do you do?
Mike Tomlin will not run Will Howard.
Mike Tomlin, Yeah, there's sinse. That's all that matters.
If there's no Aaron Rodgers, and if there's no Aaron Rodgers, I still think there's going to be But if there's no Aaron Rodgers and there's no pause, there's still sneaky fullback plan for the Steelers.
Limping up ninety one.
Like there's not a chance. I think it's hurt. There is not a chance. Mike Tomlin. It is throwing a six round rookie out there. It will not. I mean, look at look at what happened last year. Justin Fields went four and two and his six starts and Tomlin.
Six field goals against Atlanta. The shutter thing was was interesting, and I that'll play itself out and I'm just gonna block Brown's Twitter until we see that the game played. But here's the thing. Historically, and we've done a deep dive into the quarterback market in the draft, we could find about a thirty percent hit rate in the first round since twenty eleven of true franchise guys. You get into the sixth round, you got about one or two
guys out of like fifty five. Right, you have no reason to have faith in this until you see it and if it works great otherwise, look at it. A very nice guy who looks a little bit like Big Ben if you look in the right light, but if
you squint. But really not, but really not. I mean, this is just Stealer fans coping, and I hope they cope by just inviting their coach back and maybe the owner Ruld, because nine ten wins is pretty damn good based on what he's been dealing with the quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Maybe to the Steelers, maybe not. We know Joe Dolan
will be right there at Fantasy Point Central. We have to leave now because of the damn clock, but please give us the details on what's going on right now and how we can find the work.
Yeah. Oh, well, we're really expanding the podcast network over at fantasy points dot com and we have multiple podcasts that you can check out on fantasy points dot com, Lash podcasts, all of them on Spotify. Well, we'll serve all your needs. We'll have Fantasy Focus podcasts. We'll have a Betting Focus podcast if you're an individual defensive player, will have an high podcasts, the NFL Focus podcast just like not necessarily even for fantasy, we have Dynasty Fantasy
Football podcasts. We've got all that cover. That's been a big, big objective of ourisens all season. You can also follow us on YouTube at YouTube dot com slash fantasy Points.
We're gonna have an ass of the Week segment with Joe Dolan. Not what you think, it's Joe, You're always great man. We'll catch up.
I could I could opine on on ASCID the week from multiple angles.
I sure you could. If you will del off this air, you will do that. Goodbye, Joe, have a good evening, see you brother.
All Right, boys,