Historic and Modern Techniques in Hurricane Forecasting

The collection and culmination of historic weather data can help us track storms in the future . Hurricane season starts on June 1st and lasts until November 30th , with the biggest threat to Texas occurring in August and September . Since 1851 , 62 hurricanes have impacted the Texas coast . 22 of these were major storms . These hurricanes have caused significant damage .

Some of these storms have reached a total cost in the billions of dollars . When tropical storms or hurricanes reach land , strong winds , heavy rain and flooding can threaten people's lives and property . Infrastructures such as roads and communications can be disrupted as well .

Fortunately , meteorologists and other scientists have used modern technology to track and predict these storms , which has helped keep everyone well informed about the incoming storm . Meteorologists rely on data , specifically weather data collected over the last century , as well as current weather data collected with modern specialized instruments .

Every time data is collected , it is added to a rich repository of information . On Galveston Island weather data has officially been collected since 1871 and claims the title for the longest-running weather data collection west of the Mississippi .

The use of these modern-day technologies , along with historic weather data , provide a sense of reassurance that we are well prepared to face challenges posed by hurricanes . However , predictions are not always perfect . There are literally countless variables for each storm .

Today , meteorologists can collect weather data from the surface of the ocean all the way to space , but these up-to-the-minute data collection methods to forecast the latest tropical weather predictions have not been around forever . For a significant period , scientists were limited to monitoring storms from land-based instruments or from ships at sea .

The science of storm tracking had to be developed from scratch , and one of the pioneers in this field was a Jesuit priest named Benito Víñez Born , in Spain in 1837, . He was ordained as a priest in 1869 and sent to Havana , cuba , where he was to be the director of the observatory at Belén , a Jesuit preparatory school .

His objective was to gain a deeper understanding of weather patterns to aid the people of Cuba in preparing for hurricanes .

He devised a comprehensive weather-watching system that recorded 10 daily observations , including temperature , rainfall , relative humidity , evaporation , cloud formation , wind direction and speed , as well as barometric pressure , which is basically the amount of air pressure in the atmosphere .

In 1875 , while he and his team conducted these weather measurements , father Benito Víñez became the first person to predict that a hurricane was on its way . This hurricane passed through the Caribbean , struck Cuba , carried on through the Gulf of Mexico and struck the Texas coast in between Corpus Christi and Indianola , texas .

Much like Galveston in the late 1800s , indianola was an immigration port and it was nearly wiped off the map . Considering this was the first hurricane to be predicted , there was no robust advance warning system like we have today . There was no robust advance warning system like we have today .

Father Benito Víñez earned the nickname Father Hurricane and he continued his weather work in Cuba . In 1885 , father Víñez's observations were published by the United States government and given to sailors working in hurricane territory . The short weather booklet was titled Practical Hints in Regard to West Indian Hurricanes .

It detailed many of his tried-and-true weather-watching tips and helped sailors navigate through dangerous waters , especially in the Atlantic Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico . Between June and November . Father Vignez invented an instrument known as the Interphase Cyclonescope . This tool uses weather measurements to locate the eye of a hurricane .

This was a critical invention , letting meteorologists know whether the eye of the hurricane was bearing down upon their location . Father Vignez continued to study and collect weather data until his death in 1893 . In the wake of World War II , new technologies gave scientists new perspectives on tropical weather . Radar technology became common during the 1940s .

Militaries around the world were using it to keep an eye on enemy aviation forces , but its use for weather monitoring was discovered by accident . During periods of bad weather , these powerful radar frequencies returned strange signals . These signals , known as echoes , were traced back to precipitation .

Radar operators and scientists realized that this could help track storms . In 1942 , the US Navy donated 25 surplus radars to the United States Weather Bureau , although that wasn't much help .

In 1943 , when Galveston was struck by a surprise hurricane , the United States government detected a hurricane bearing down on the Texas coast , but news of the hurricane was censored . But why ?

Well , there are two reasons , one of which was that the radar technology was technically still classified and the US government didn't want the enemy to find out the capabilities of the radar system . The other reason is that the United States didn't want the enemy to find out the capabilities of the radar system .

The other reason is that the United States didn't want the enemy to know that one of the United States' major petrochemical facilities was about to be struck by a hurricane . The Houston-Galveston corridor were right in the bullseye and a direct blow from a hurricane could impede the flow of oil and petrochemical products to the front lines .

However , another hurricane data collection technique was pioneered at this time . Although the general public was not notified of the storm , certain military assets were required to move , especially airplanes .

While the storm was making its way to the Texas coast , flight instructor Colonel Joe Duckworth was egged on by a group of British pilots training in Texas to be the first purposeful flight through a hurricane .

Despite lacking official permission , he and his navigator , lieutenant Ralph O'Hare , took off from Bryan Army Airfield in Bryan , texas , and headed south directly at this surprise hurricane .

As the storm made landfall , galvestonians and Houstonians alike were caught off guard , and as Colonel Duckworth and Lieutenant O'Hare arrived at the hurricane , turbulence and heavy rain made the flight extremely rough , but they successfully navigated through the storm , proving the durability of an airplane in a hurricane and the impressive flying skill of Duckworth .

Instead of getting in trouble . When he returned to base , the weather officer caught wind of what had just happened and when the plane landed it was immediately refueled and the weather officer hopped in conducting the second purposeful flight into a hurricane .

This insane feat proved the ability to fly through hurricanes , and it didn't take long for someone to realize you can strap instruments to a plane and collect weather data as you go . The surprise hurricane killed the reported 19 people .

By 1944 , the United States government began using airplanes to track and monitor weather conditions in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico . The airplanes would collect valuable data for forecasters . This method is still used to monitor storms today . The surprise hurricane of 1943 is the unofficial beginning of the hurricane hunters .

Hurricane forecasting technology took another major leap forward in the 1950s , thanks to early computer systems . This allowed scientists to develop better calculations and models , which improved the speed and accuracy of predictions .

Today , scientists have at their disposal a range of advanced technologies to forecast and track hurricanes . Drones and unmanned aerial vehicles , also known as UAVs , in particular , have proven to be powerful tools . Their aerial photography capabilities enable the monitoring of water levels , storm progress and ground conditions .

Additionally , satellites provide crucial images of storms from space , allowing meteorologists to track a hurricane through its entire life cycle . These satellites also measure atmospheric temperatures , moisture levels and sea surface temps , all of which are vital for predicting storms . Another helpful tool is a dropson , a data collection device attached to a parachute .

The whole contraption is dropped from an aircraft above a hurricane . It collects information about temperature , humidity , pressure and wind as it falls to the ocean's surface . A dropsin works like a weather balloon , only in reverse . Instead of collecting data from the ground up , a dropsin collects data from the sky to the ocean .

Collecting data and creating models for possible impacts are the most critical and challenging parts of weather forecasting . The more data available to crunch , the more accurate these predictions will become . As technology improves , meteorologists and other climate scientists forecast many opportunities for growth .

Artificial intelligence and machine learning may be able to develop more accurate models and tracking . The collection and culmination of historic weather data can help us track storms in the future . If all of this is used properly , people can be safer and better prepared , to quote Father Benito Viñez .

Knowing that occasions may arise when these observations will be of use , they are recorded here in hope that they may prove of benefit in some emergency . The danger of navigating these waters is great , the difficulties many and often insuperable . These waters is great , the difficulties many and often insuperable . The destruction of life and property very frequent .

Thus , any aid which science can afford , even if only partial , should be eagerly sought out and willingly accepted .