Iran crisis sends European gas prices soaring

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Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Wednesday, March 4th, and this is your FT News briefing. The war in the Middle East is causing another potential energy crisis for Europe. And it's setting up another rift between the US and its European allies. Plus, China will lay out its five-year plan tomorrow. We'll unpack what's on deck. I'm Victoria Craig, and here's the news you need to start your day.

European stocks and bonds sold off on Tuesday as concerns grow about an energy shock from the conflict in the Middle East. Global oil prices have been trading in the eighty dollar per barrel range this week. while European natural gas prices have nearly doubled. Tehran's retaliatory strikes are targeting energy production facilities in the Gulf, and its drone attacks have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial oil and gas export route to Europe and Asia.

The question now is, will Europe need to look for a new energy source the way it did after Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two? Here to discuss that is the FT's EU correspondent Ian Johnston. Hi Ian. So just walk us through how reliant Europe is on gas supplies from the Middle East. So Europe is not overly reliant on gas supplies from the Middle East per se. It gets about ten percent of it. liquefied natural gas from Qatar.

But it's a global market and those shocks to the gas supplies in Qatar have had a really damaging effect on prices, shooting up by seventy eight percent in the space of two days. And it sparked real concern over what the effect this will have on European businesses and consumers. Is Europe in any way better positioned to absorb any energy shock than it was when Russia invaded Ukraine back in twenty twenty two? Yes, it is. And that's partly because the nature of the shock is different.

in twenty twenty two that Europe's main gas supplier cut off pipeline gas effectively to the continent and gas prices soared, but also there are real concerns over how Europe would get supplies in response to that. Since then they have Started to import much more liquefied natural gas from Qatar but also largely from the US. They've electrified quite a bit as well, so renewable energy sources have increased and so that has been part of a plan really to reduce dependence on Russia.

Are these long term solutions that Europe can rely on if the situation in the Middle East worsens, or will they have to look to different possible suppliers down the line? Well, one challenge now is that we've come out of a very cold winter in Europe and so the gas reserves are very low. Europe now needs to refill those gas supplies and it risks doing so at a time when prices are at very high and if that continues to be the case it'll be very expensive to do so.

in terms of its options for doing that, uh the sources would be perhaps turning to the US. Other options that are unlikely but could happen would be to continue to import Russian gas. Europe has recently legislated to phase that out. Um there are other scenarios as well. Europe could fire up coal plants as a short term measure. So how concerned are authorities in Brussels about a potential pass through of these higher energy prices to consumers and how are they preparing for that?

I think yes they are very concerned that would effectively be a real drain on Europe's economy, political pressure on politicians as well, if energy prices continue to stay high. And there are unfortunately not many levers that they can pull at this point in time.

to support customers and businesses. One thing that it could do is continue to allow uh heavily polluting industries, steelmakers, fertilizers, to continue to get free allowances for emitting uh carbon, which is a way of keeping those industries outside of its environmental measures.

And another thing it could do is to enable more state aid. Those are the rules that Brussels puts on Member States to prevent them from advantaging their businesses. And that's something that it could do. It could loosen those restrictions temporarily. Really interesting stuff. Ian Johnston is the FT's EU correspondent. Thanks, Ian, for your time. Thank you.

U.S. President Donald Trump tore into some of his European allies yesterday during a White House meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Trump lashed out at Spain over what he saw as a lack of cooperation. Madrid refused to let the U.S. send jets and ships to attack Iran from two jointly operated military facilities in Spain. to cut off all dealings with Spain.

He's referring there to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. A Spanish government official fired back in a statement saying Spain was a quote reliable trading partner. At the same White House press conference, Trump also expressed frustration that the UK had not allowed the US to launch its initial strikes on Iran from the small island of Diego Garcia.

But the UK reversed course on Sunday. Here's what Trump had to say about Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. The UK Prime Minister on Monday challenged the strikes on Iran, saying, quote, this government does not believe in regime change from the skies. Air travel is being disrupted as a result of the Middle East conflict and it isn't just a problem for commercial airline passengers. It's also a problem for metals trade.

Dubai is an important hub for gold shipments. It accounted for about 20% of global flows last year, and itself was the world's second largest exporter in 2024. Gold is usually transported on passenger planes, but some airlines are prioritizing perishable goods instead. Now some logistics carriers say they are the ones handling the gold shipments.

Traders say longer-term disruption could trigger more volatility in the price of gold. It's down more than four percent this week, but up nearly twenty percent so far this year.

China's National People's Congress convenes tomorrow. At the meeting, Beijing will set its growth target for the year and unveil its latest five-year plan. These gatherings are carefully planned pieces of theater. Leadership sets out its ambitions for the economy and which sectors are lined up for funding and policy support.

To tell us what's on tap, I'm joined now by the FT's Beijing bureau chief, Joe Lei. Hey Joe, thanks for being here. Thank you. So, what are you looking out for from this meeting?

Yeah, this is uh uh China's annual political extravaganza, if you like, and one of the key things at this annual meeting is always the growth target. The government delivers the so called work report, which details all of the activities that it's been doing over the past year and its plans for the coming year, especially for the economy.

And this year we'll be expecting them to perhaps even change the target, which will be the first time in a few years, to around four point five to five percent for this year.

And that would compare to last year's target which was uh in quotes around five percent. So that'll be a pretty big change, acknowledging that China's economy is gradually slowing and then they'll also release the fifteenth five year plan and we think that will be emphasizing high tech development first and foremost and also with some hopes of fueling consumption. Does China generally meet these targets? They always mysteriously.

do meet the target. There have been exceptions such as during COVID, but normally they do meet it. And the way they do that is through economic stimulus. So if they find that they're falling short of the target, they'll issue a whole lot more bonds and build a a lot more infrastructure.

undertake a lot more investment until they feel like they've met the target. But of course China's economic data has been heavily questioned by economists over the years. It's always a little bit questionable whether they are actually meeting the target, but they certainly say that they do. You mentioned that the tech sector is a focus for tomorrow. What are the other sectors you're gonna be watching for? One of the really interesting things might be whether or not the government

actually sets some targets for consumption because the thing obviously that's really missing in the Chinese economy at the moment is consumption. There is a lack of demand in the Chinese economy leading to huge exports. And that massive surplus. last year that has upset China's trading partners.

So economists will be looking for more clarity on whether they'll set targets for consumption, which also requires them to boost people's incomes. But I'm not too optimistic that they'll do much on that front. I think tech is still the highest priority. And that's because of competition with the US. Above all they want to win that contest. What other policies are the delegates going to discuss?

Yeah, another another really interesting piece of legislation that's supposed to be discussed there is inheritance tax. With China's demographic decline, we are going to see this large group of people who've benefited from the past forty years of economic growth. They are going to hand over their wealth to a much smaller number of people in the next generation. So the party really wants to get a piece of this in terms of taxation.

But still they know that this is a very unpopular tax and they'll be working very carefully on how they can get it through. So Joe, that's what the government is prioritizing, but people can also have their voices heard. So what's on their minds heading into the Congress? Yeah, one of the features of the uh Chinese People's Political Consultative Committee, which is the main advisory body.

The delegates to this body are quite often people from the wider society, they're not all officials, and they can actually put in proposals. basically ideas on how to improve society. And this year one of those is to actually crack down on overtime. So that couples and families have more time and there's a greater willingness to actually have children as well. Joe Leigh is the FT's Beijing bureau chief. Thanks so much, Joe. Thanks very much.

You can read more on all of these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News briefing. Check back tomorrow for the latest business news. Du valar hänt med Palme. I en ny dokumentärserie på TV4 Play om Palmmåter. Har man tagit hjälp av AI för att försöka lösa motgotan. Vi vet att det handlar om sådana som faktiskt vet hur man, har rejellt folk att prata klars på. Vi är en titt på vädret. Und die Sonne am Nachmittag langsam über Bremen rauskommt.

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