Can a Mexican cartel stronghold host the World Cup?

Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Friday, June fifth, and this is your FT News briefing. Elon Musk is cozying up to retail investors, and can a bunch of cockroaches upset Indian politics? Plus the World Cup kicks off next week, we'll take a look at the challenges one host city is facing.

Guadalajara is a place with a lot of cartel presence and a lot of cartel control. Not really the ideal image for a football tournament.

I'm Mark Filipino and here's the news you need to start your day.

SpaceX expects to go public about a week from now, and CEO Elon Musk wants to prioritize everyday investors. About one-fifth of SpaceX shares will be reserved for retail investors, as according to sources familiar with the matter, and it's unheard of for such a large IPO. Musk expects the company will raise around$75 billion.

It's not unheard of to use an animal to symbolize a political party. Here in the U.S., the Democrats use a donkey and Republicans use an elephant. And in India, a youth protest movement is aligning itself with the cockroach. It's gone viral, and it's challenging the ruling party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I'm joined by the FT's South Asia Bureau Chief Michael Stott to tell the story of the Cockroach Janta Party. Hi, Michael.

Hello!

So Michael, how did this movement originate and why did the party choose a cockroach as its emblem?

So this party appeared almost out of nowhere. It was the brainchild of an Indian doing postgrad studies at Boston in the US. His name is Abhijit Dipka. And He said he had the idea for this movement after he had read in the papers of India's Chief Justice calling unemployed young people cockroaches, and he was so outraged by this that he decided to start

Now, Michael, you spoke to Abuji Dipka. What's his background and how does he plan to capitalize on this moment?

Well he told me that he'd finished his uh master's degree in public relations in Boston and his plan was just to apply for jobs in the States and stay there. And then this whole movement has changed his life. He's got twenty two million followers on Instagram and they've been telling him they want him to turn this satirical online protest movement into a proper political movement in India.

Yeah, what are the problems in the education system that Dipka says need to be addressed?

These exams are crucial for millions of Indians who take them every year, who spend years of their life and sometimes borrowed money studying to pass them because it's their big chance to gain a decent job. And some of these exams have had to be cancelled after people have taken them because it's emerged that the question papers haven't been secure or that mark sheets have been leaked or that papers have been marked wrongly.

Has the government said anything about this?

Well the government has responded by saying it doesn't believe that the sudden explosive growth of this cockroach movement is uh genuine. It thinks this is a campaign of bots. They believe these are bots. originating in Pakistan, their arch enemy. Cockeric Party says that isn't correct. They've published data from Instagram showing that ninety four percent of their Instagram followers are from India.

Michael, do you think that this movement can last and does Dipka think he'll get a big turnout for the protests that he's planning?

He says he thinks tens of thousands of people will show up. What I'm told here by people who follow youth movements in India is that there is genuine discontent, there is a feeling that problems of youth unemployment and of problems in the exam system and in public education have not been addressed by the current government adequately over its twelve years in power.

Michael Stodd is the FT South Asia bureau chief. Thanks so much, Michael.

Soccer fans around the world are gearing up for the World Cup, but there's one host city that could be a tough sell for soccer tourists. It's Guadalajara in Mexico, home to one of the country's most powerful criminal cartels, and lots of people are wondering whether it'll be safe for fans. Here to discuss how the city is preparing is the FT's Kira Nugent. She traveled there earlier this year. Hi, Kira.

Hi Mark.

So I've never been to Guadalajara. It's hosting four group stage games in the World Cup. Tell me a little bit about what the city is like.

Yeah, so it's a big city, uh one of Mexico's biggest economic centers. It feels pretty leafy, there's a lot of shopping malls, you know, I would say it feels safe and like a normal city for tourists. But there's also this other side to it that people are concerned about. Guadalajara is the capital of Jalisco State, which is the home of the very powerful Jalisco New Generation cartel.

No, i it it seems on its face like it might be a pretty risky place to host the World Cup.

So I think yes, on the face of it, it definitely seems that way. But I would say everyone I spoke to in Guadalajara, experts, law enforcement officials, almost all of them agreed that it's just not in the cartel's interest to disrupt the World Cup. Fundamentally, these are businesses, um, illicit businesses, and killing or attacking tourists or big events is not gonna earn them any money. Uh it's actually if they were going to earn money from tourists, it would be by selling them drugs.

There's no reason to be worried about violence because why would you hurt your customer base? That makes a lot of sense. Um what have government officials said about the safety concerns?

Yeah, I mean, first of all, you can't rule out like any kind of crime. Obviously, visiting any big city and anywhere in the world and especially in Mexico, there is some risk. But President Claudia Scheinbaum has been very insistent that there is every guarantee that tourists are going to be safe during the World Cup. The national government is deploying almost a hundred thousand extra security forces around the country to make sure everything goes smoothly.

I guess the question that I have is does Guadalajara have a track record of hosting games that maybe we could pull precedent from?

Yeah, they hosted the Pan American Games in twenty eleven, which if I recall correctly was during quite a intense period of inter cartel fighting, but everything went off without a hitch. Um they host the world's second largest book fair every year um that goes smoothly. I also went to a qualifier match in March in Guadalajara's Akron Stadium. I think uh it was very boring in every respect and there was no kind of unpleasant excitement. People had a good time. I think one goal was scored.

That's exciting for a soccer match, isn't it?

Thank you.

Yeah, absolutely.

Yeah.

That's the FT's Kira Nugent. Thanks, Kira.

Thanks, Mark.

As we just heard, public safety for soccer fans attending the World Cup is one focus for the tournament that starts next week. So is the rivalry between betting markets and online gambling companies. To chat more about this mega event taking North America by storm, I want to bring in Victoria Craig for our regular Friday chat. Hi, Victoria.

Hey Mark.

So this is not just a battle on the pitch during the game, but also a battle for the dollars that go toward betting on the outcomes, right?

Bingo. And this is what bosses in the sports betting industry are describing as the biggest betting opportunity in history. It's one that brings huge potential to attract new customers to their platforms. So traditional bookmakers like Flutters FanDuel are increasingly moving into prediction market style products because they're trying to compete with the likes of Call Sheet and Polymarket. And so that is really where things are starting to heat up.

And for folks who don't know the difference between these two, the main difference is with sports betting, you're betting against the house. With prediction markets, you're betting against other traders.

Right. And the other key thing to note is that some US states actually ban sports betting. Whereas with prediction markets, they are able to bypass these bans because instead of being considered gambling products, they're considered derivatives markets. So this is the first World Cup to take place since prediction markets have really emerged as a major rival to the traditional sports betting industry.

So what does this mean when betting on the World Cup game?

Well, the two biggest prediction market operators now make most of their income From sports wagers and contracts on the World Cup winner are already the biggest prediction market bets on record. Nearly one and a half billion dollars on polymarket already. So The platforms, as you can tell, are in a real battle for the bucks. They're all rolling out discounts, deals, rewards, new features. All to attract all of us World Cup watchers sitting around waiting for ticket prices to fall.

We might be waiting a while Victoria Craig, thanks so much for breaking this down.

Thanks, Mark.

You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News briefing. Check back next week. For the latest business news. The FT News briefing was produced this week by Sonia Hudson, Safia Ahmed, Katia Kumkova, Fiona Simon, and Victoria Craig. It was edited by me, Mark Filipino. Our show is mixed by Alex Higgins, Kelly Gary, and Sam Giovinko. We had helped this week from Peter Barber.

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