Mexico in chaos after El Mencho killed

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Hi everyone, it's Jamie. Today we're talking about Mexico in the wake of mass violence that broke out on Sunday after a military raid killed the most wanted and feared cartel boss in the country, a man known as El Mencho. Convenience stores and Trucks dragged across roads and set on fire.

Plumes of smoke from resort city Puerto Vallata. Panick customers running through Guadalajara airport. Flights cancelled. And fear. Now as some of the death settles, we'll take a closer look at who this Kingpin was the powerful criminal organization he presided over And what could happen next in his absence? With me now is David Mora, the senior Mexico analyst at International Crisis Group. He is in Guadalajara.

David, thank you so much for making the time. Really appreciate it. Totally. Thank you for inviting me to the show. So you and I are talking at about four PM Eastern time on Monday, and since Al Mencho was killed in a Mexican military operation yesterday, an explosive reaction swept Mexico beginning in uh his cartel's home. Cartel Fire and Fury.

Turning the streets of Mexican tourist hotspot Puerto Vallarta on this Sunday morning into something resembling a war zone. The explosion of violence also hit the state of Jalisco's capital. Guadalajara and spread to at least ten other states. For those of us who are just watching the videos from afar, can you tell me more about what that reaction entails? Certainly. So you know the immediate aftermath, right after the operation, was this show of force.

by the different groups that operate under the the Jalisco Carter umbrella. And they traded very coordinated response uh that the official toll was at least two hundred and fifty blockades. So basically the way this works is Steal cars, they set them on fire, trucks as well, buses. and then they use them to blockade not only streets within like urban areas like the metropolitan zone here in Guadalajara, but also highways in Jalisco State that as you mentioned is the home state for

the Jalisco Cartel, but also neighboring states such as Guanajuato, Michoacan, uh on the on the west coast, Najarit and Colima as well. And that quickly grew up to be a national situation because we also saw confrontations and blockades in other parts Closer to the US Mexico border and further south towards Guatemala. Foot soldiers of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, the most powerful drug gang in Mexico, went on the rampage. Incidents were registered in twenty of Mexico's thirty-two states.

The official toll that was shared by the government is that at least twenty five troops died or killed. Thousands of suspects were s captured. Some others were killed as well during the operations. Mexican officials say the total death count from yesterday's operation is at least seventy-three, including security forces. Suspected cartel members and others, including a prison guard and an agent from the state prosecutor's office.

Something that it's worth mentioning is that there there have been just a few reports of of civilian casualties. And the way the government responded to this was deploying more troops and reinforcing the presence across some of the the some of the states that had, you know, the most active uh confrontations and and the situation was kind of like hotter. What is the purpose of this show of force from the cartel? What are what are they trying to accomplish? With the road blocks and

Setting vehicles on fire. So it's retaliatory. It's uh it's saying that you know they're not gonna uh let this happen without giving the fight. And it's to demonstrate the the capacity, the disruption capacity that a powerful organization has as Jalisco Cartel and the violence that they can inflict, right?

So it's basically telling the government it's not gonna be that easy. Uh it's a show of force to demonstrate the capabilities of of the cartel. How would you describe the state of things right now uh across Mexico? Has

The violence subsided? Has it been largely contained? So to keep it under the right perspective, not all of Mexico was under fire, right? Like Mexico City didn't present any any any activity, any criminal activity, for instance. Where I am uh connecting from, which is Guadalajara. The situation was different. We did see several instances here in Guadalajara, in the metropolitan area, of these road blockades.

There was a lot of misinformation as well. So there was a bit of panic among the population. And rightly so, most people shelter in place yesterday, all day long. And today the city's kind of like crawling back. slowly to certain level of normal. So yesterday for instance I I was able to walk on the street, not because I wanted, but because I was staying at an Airbnb with no water or food whatsoever. So I w I I I went outside to try to to find food.

And of course the all businesses were shut down, the streets were completely empty. Then I learned for instance that Uber is topped the right sharing services. So you couldn't access the app. Um, there was no public transportation. The government halted all public transportation. And you could see that on the streets again. It was basically ghost town. I ended up finding a taco joint. Right.

Which you would think that is kind of like the easiest thing to find in Mexico, yeah. I want a taco and there are tacos everywhere. It was the only and I'm talking about a main o a main thoroughway, a main avenue in the city. It was absolutely empty and after almost one hour of walking, I found this joint, this stall.

I ended up queuing for four hours. Wow. And then online I heard several stories of people that were literally stranded. The city, for instance, hosted well I had hosted the It's Half a Mile Marathon. not half a mile, the half marathon. And there were over ten thousand runners from out of state that couldn't return. They finished the race and they were forced to stay in in Jalisco, in Guadalajara.

Some of the people on the line we saw arriving uh troops, Guardian Nacional, the National Guardsmen, uh also looking for food. They had been on duty for by then for over twenty four hours, so they were starving more than we were. uh I was able to chat with some of the some of these troops and they shared like pretty bleak stories of what the confrontations had been like outside the metropolitan area.

So besides this this point, uh this corner that had a lot of us ran to find food and water, uh the city was basically empty, virtually empty. It reminded me of of COVID. I mean most most immediately with the World Cup, seeing the city that I'm seeing today, you know, completely it came to a standstill. It was a ghost town. And just thinking that this city's gonna receive millions of people in just a few months for the matches that are gonna be played here.

It was kind of like hard to, you know, square that same circle. Ca can you tell me more about what they told you about what those confrontations were like?'Cause I mean, looking looking at the footage from here. It looks like a war zone, right? There's plumes of smoke coming out of like around Porto Vallarta, like like w what What was it like the the violence and the chaos in reality?

So according to them the confrontations had been very, very violent, also very focalized. The videos, you know, like these videos, the ones that get that get viral are the ones that Or kinda like they show this this this sort of scenes, right? But it that it is not to say that that is that that that is the case for the entirety of Mexico. Certainly in Puerto Vallarta they they set in fire uh places, businesses here and w as well, like some Oxa which is a chain store very popular in Mexico.

they close the doors and they they're always open. So it was very shocking to see them closing the doors because they're usually target when things like that happen. So mo uh some oxes were on fire as well. And what I heard from the National Guardsmen Well were were descriptions of their men being targeted and killed, which is something that the government corroborated yesterday evening. Yeah. It was breaking news to me.

They talk about dozens of their colleagues having having been killed by the criminal groups working under Jalisco. And today the government confirmed that at least 25 troops had been killed. In Puerto Vallarta, tourists were told to shelter in place. All Canadians in affected regions should heed the direction of local authorities and travel only when it is safe to do so. There was reportedly three hundred people stuck at the airport after flights were cancelled.

Many travelers were eventually transferred to the city center under heavy police escort. And currently there are about twenty six thousand Canadians registered in Mexico right now. That is an increase. of nearly eight thousand from the same time yesterday.

Registration is voluntary. We know that the actual number of Canadians in Mexico is likely much higher. All Canadians travelling or living abroad are strongly encouraged to register with Global Affairs in order to receive timely updates and information about the ongoing situation. and travel advice.

Is your sense that the streets are still too dangerous to move around? And I know you're obviously moving around in them a little bit. I have, yeah. And again, I mean Guadalajara, it feels like it is going back to normal. And this is this is what what I would expect, you know, based on previous instances of you know the Mexican government going hard against a major drug trafficking figure, the the immediate reaction usually lasts for around two or three days.

Uh and then things kind of like go back to normal. Is is there anything different about this time around from previous experiences? I mean, and when I say previous experiences, of course the first one that comes to mind is El Culia Canazo, which is the time in 2019 that former president Andrés Monel López Obrador, uh try to capture el Chapo's youngest son, Ovidio Guzmán.

It began Thursday afternoon in Culiacan, the capital of Sinaloa state, when thirty officers on patrol were shot at from inside a home. Patrol personnel repelled the assault, took control of the house, and arrested four people inside, says Mexican Security Minister Alfonso Durazo. And they did capture him, but Los Chapitos this faction within the Sinaloa Cartil basically sieged the entire city. They choked the city in its entirety.

Basically the government to release a video. But then things turned. Cartel gunmen surrounded the home, armed with military-grade weapons, turning the city into a virtual war zone. Outnumbered and outgunned, the security forces said they had no choice. They let Guzmán Lopez go. And there there were plenty of difference because we're talking about two different groups, two different states. The control that Los Chapitos had over Culiacan thing was way deeper. ترجمة نانسي قنقر

And the other thing is because of course El Mayo was eventually killed and and he his body was taken to Mexico City, rightly so. I think if they would have left the body here, the situation would have been very different.

So there are there are certainly s uh major points to differentiate what we're seeing now from previous instances. How would it have been different if they had left the body there? I think they would have created a situation in with in which there are incentives for the many hitmen that work under Jalisco, Nueva Generación, to keep working, keep fighting in the city that would have bring the conflict to the city.

uh which is precisely what they didn't want. And I think something that they learned, the government learned from previous experiences, especially at Kolia Canasa, was that it's not a good idea to do this in a major urban area. people and it brought broke havoc to an entire city. So that's why they I think even though El Mencho was believed to move around a lot in places like Guadalajara and the other municipalities nearby.

They waited to capture him and eventually kill him in a more play place. So I think there that there's some learning about, you know, some lessons that they they implemented this time around. Look, it's hard being the pop culture friend. You're the one who knows exactly what news show is the most watched show on Netflix right now, or you're on top of the film festival calendar. Whether you are that friend or you desperately need a friend like that.

Allow commotion to enter your group chat. It's a podcast hosted by me, Elamine Abdel Mahmoud, where I talk to people about the arts and entertainment stories that you need to know, and we share all the recommendations of what we're doing. You should be reading or watching or listening to. Find commotion wherever you get your podcasts. What do you make of the decision to do it so close to to a tourist destination? I ha have you ever seen that before?

There's a lot of details that we don't know about the operation that that that we might never get to learn. But it this might have been a a scenario in which we have to do it. You know, it's kind of like a it's now or never type of situation. Uh and maybe the it was the the the the best moment because a lot of different factors were just, you know, they they they played together and it was the moment to do it.

It was close, yeah, to a touristic destination. Uh it was also relatively close to Guadalajara, but again it was not in either of those.

Cities. I I know I take your point that we still don't know like a ton about the about the operation, but just tell me what we Do know at this moment, you know, I know we've been told that they located El Mencho by tracking one of his girlfriends to what was called a secluded love nest. And ultimately he was killed in the shootout. Um, and just so like what other details have have we heard?

So uh the government today, uh in the daily press or the president I usually hosts, both the general of the army General Trevilla and the Secretary of Public Security, Omar García Harfovich, President. Not super detailed, but they they shared a few nuggets here and there about the operation, like what you just said, right? That they were chasing presumably a lover of of El Mencho. They also share things like

that it was uh eight in total, eight people, eight suspects that died. The three of them died on the way to Mexico City in the uh in the helicopter that they were being uh flown to to Mexico City, including El Mencho. It was rotated that uh it was possible the body was positively identified as I mentioned. There are other bodies that uh are still yet to be positively and publicly identified, including important lieutenants of Elmencha, really powerful figures within the cartel as well.

Uh so we were sure that as well. We were sure, you know, the the amount of money, the weapons that were that were seized during the operation. Apparently they used rocket launchers against uh some of the forces at Rise uh on on air to the to the to the zine. Mm. As a bit of an aside here, the lawyer for the alleged Canadian drug lord, Ryan Wedding Um Ам'ярви, ас-рейджинтис, аккуратно кокай, escorted from Mexico to California. The FBI director right behind him.

He went from an Olympic snowboarder to the largest narco trafficker in modern times. was quite adamant in a statement today that his client did not give the US any intelligence that helped lead to the killing of El Mencho. I mean I guess Are you buying that? Like why would the lawyer need to come out so forcefully? Yeah. Like, why do you even think we heard that?

So I think the that both the US government and the Mexican government have deployed more really sophisticated uh intelligence gathering operations in the country. uh not to depend upon whether a suspect uh in a US court gives them information. It precisely because these sort of operations really need the most updated, fresh details as possible of about location, who they're with,

what sort of like um you know guards they have around, what sort of like what is the location they're at. So I this is information that most likely Ryan Wedding was not preview, was not, you know, didn't have with him. Uh but I see why he would put out this strong statement, you know, saying, Don't even look at here. This has nothing to do with Ryan wedding. I mean there there's gonna be a lot of

the the the removal, you know, taking out and mention is gonna bring a lot of violence and reaccommodation within the group, within the cartel. Yeah. And that maybe he's afraid that as part of that, you know, maybe they can they can somehow point that this was Orchestrated with the help of Ryan Wedding. So I think for security reasons for his client, he might have been that adamant, you know, denying all.

Can you tell me more about El Mencho? His real name is Nemesio Asguera Cervantes. Um I understand before he was Mexico's most wanted kingpin with this fifteen million dollar bounty on his head. um from the US, he was at one point a police officer. And and just how did he come to be such a powerful crime boss? Right. Despite the power and you know the position that he

reached within Jalisco. He hasn't been uh, you know, sort of like a story Kingpin and Kapo, uh similar to what, you know, il Chapo Guzmán, el Mahjo Samba to that level, despite him being as equally powerful as as them. Very briefly, uh El Mencho el Mencho, you know, grew up in poverty here in Mexico. At some point, like so many Mexicans he migrated. to the US. He was in the US where he was caught on you know, like pushing some drugs.

So he's he had a stint in a y in a California jail, after which he was sent to Mexico and back in Mexico. He worked as a police officer, which is not something unlike like uncommon for people who have been uh in jail for drug related offenses and and crimes.

which speaks very badly about the recruitment processes. I mean, we're still talking about the United States, but still. And then after ha having this other stint in in the p in the in the police forces in Jalisco, He he begins working for one cartel, the cartel de Milenio, which is now an extreme organization that at some point had an alliance with Sinaloa Cardio and they were fighting a very brutal organization called Losetas. I'm talking this is happening around late two thousand and ten.

y el cartel milenio en Sinaloa create this paramilitary sort of like organization exclusively devoted to fight Los Setas, which was this very brutal cartel and the idea is to be as brutal and as violent as losetas and these began being called uh los matacetas the zeta killers basically the zira zeta killers And that's where Adventure starts kind of like, you know, going up the ladder in this specific organization.

Which eventually turns into what uh what is known today as the Jalisco cartel. Right, because they splinter at some point from Sinaloa. From right and millennial cartel, correct. Correct. Which is the story of Organized crime in Mexico. The story of organized crime in Mexico is the story of splintering And you know, having fractures and groups dividing and then internal fighting and then one group kind of like getting the upper hand at the end and then other

reaccommodating around that. And that is that is something that it you know might we might be at portis kind of like in the making of with beheading uh Jalisco Cartel and taking El Mencho out. Um and just Al Mencho himself. He's known for being particularly brutal, right? Is that fair for me to say? I think the cartel. The cartel. The cartel part of the brand of the Jalisco cartel is being very violent, very brutal. And it's a narco trafficking organization.

But I understand their operations kind of went well beyond drugs as well. And just how would you summarize the breath? of the Jalisco New Generation cartels operations in drugs and then also beyond.

Right. So yeah, you're right. Uh Alice Cocardo's one of the front runners in the production and trafficking of drugs in Mexico, especially fentanyl. They also and they're always uh on the you know the yearly reports of the DEA uh they're always on top of, you know, the main producers and drop clickers of fentanyl.

and other drugs as well. They also are in the in the business of bringing plant based drugs from South America, i.e. cocaine, uh, to Mexico and then chip it uh into to other destinations across the world. But it's not only drugs um that they are invested in. Um there are other criminal rackets, criminal markets in which they also operate.

For instance, they're they're huge in the parts of Mexico, the regions of Mexico that are rich in terms of agricultural activity, um and also mining zones, charging extortion fees. for you know for the producers of either avocados, lemons or the many minerals that are mined in different parts of Mexico. So for instance for avocados, the the cartel and the groups operating under Jalisco with Jalisco charge

uh five pesos for every kilo of avocado that a producer grows uh in specific parts. For instance, this is in Michoacan. Uh so they're also big on that. They'll also uh have um um a presence in the fuel smuggling, fuel theft market in Mexico, which is also very lucrative. So they also they have diversified. Same as other criminal groups, they have diversified into these multiple licit and illicit businesses.

These members of the cartel, there's these videos online of members suited up in military gear with just really highly sophisticated armored weapons and armored vehicles. They've been said to have drones. You talked about rocket launchers and and like how how did they come to be so well armed? So there is definitely the factor of the US and the you know the gun industry in the US.

And the the problem with weapons being smuggled south of the border, which is mo no most homicides in Mexico, I think seven out of ten homicides are committed with guns, and there's hundreds Of thousands of guns and other weapons. small arms that are seized in Mexico every single year. So that's one way that these groups arm uh you know themselves.

But I think Jalisco also did things that were very that at that point at that point were sort of like a novelty. And I'm talking about, for instance, uh armoring their cars, you know, and then artisanal uh handmade way we call them monsters in Mexico. So these are pickup trucks. that had l heavy layers of different metals.

attached to them. Um, this is something that uh again was kind of like part of the brand. And usually like the Jalisco Cartel really they became like this major military force and they part of the brand was showcasing the firepower in this widely viral videos in w in which they were s they would shoot their weapons and And they would show, you know, the rockets and uh the high powered rifles that they had access to.

And I think all another element in how they became this powerful is because they have a really strong pipeline of mercenaries, you know, foreign combatants. coming into Mexico to train the hitmen of the cardal in things like creating improv improvised explosive devices. So there there there's been a lot of reports of mines designed and built by Cal Jalisco Nova Generation, you know, being thrown uh and being left in in the strategic points of of roads uh and highways in places like

Right. So they were very creative and they're they certainly built up these these massively and really important military, almost paramilitary force in And these guys they

You know, in twenty twenty, for example, have tried to assassinate the current federal secretary of security, who was the chief of police in Mexico City at the time, with twenty eight hitmen and over one hundred Bullets. And just how challenging has it been for the Mexican government to contain this cartel and and go after El Mencho in the

Right. I think you're you're you're making an important point with, you know, the attempt on Omar Garcia Harfuch, the now the secretary back then, the Mexico City security secretary, now the Mexico's the national um head of the security strategy. Uh, because something that that you know, there m the Mexican criminal landscape is very crowded. There are multiple groups. And another way in which Jalisco Cartle stood out was.

their willingness, their propensity, their proclivity to engage in these brazen attacks against government officials. It was not only Harfuch back then, more recently Halis Kolls who killed a very popular mayor, for instance, in a big city that really brought Mitchokam back to the top of the news cycle and sort of like a political uh emergency for for the federal government.

Um in terms of of the second part of the question, uh that uh how hard had it has it been with uh for the federal government to tackle to confront uh the current, it certainly is uh It's a challenge. Because I think it's not only and it's specifically talking about now, the challenge is not so much in the immediate aftermath, you know, this blockade.

That is the immediate reaction. But what's gonna be challenging is what's gonna happen with the Jalisco Cartel once El Mensch is not here. Um because he had a very centralized And very tight grip on the entire structure. And if someone arrives that is not as powerful or is seen as weak. in compared to is weaker compared to El Menscho, that might create incentives for

groups and factions and you know operatives within the cardal to splinter to fight over power and that is when the actual levels of violence might spike up. Right. I I know even um President Claudia Scheinbaum herself has criticized previous leadership for taking out cartel leaders and the violence triggered in this aftermath and and sort of This is this is the pitfalls. This is what people call the pitfalls of the kingpin strategy. That you could unleash more violence this way.

I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the role that you think the United States has played here. So uh there was a statement that went out by the White House press secretary, Carolyn Levitt. commending Mexico's military, uh saying that US and Mexican intelligence was used here. Of course, uh the US State Department had last year designated this cartel as a foreign terrorist.

How how much pressure was Claudia Scheinbaum's government under to act here? Definitely. I mean I do think before going to the you know, the US factor, I do think it um it is important to Just to keep in context that this is this is the the strategy of being more confrontational against criminal groups that President Shiman has deployed.

I do think it's also because she believes that that uh in that policy. She knows that that was a huge uh shortcoming of her mentor and predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. So I think she comes from there. But the factor of after once Trump was elected and he, you know, got to the White House, there's certainly more political pressure on delivering this.

high value uh substantial outcomes in the fight against criminal groups. In this specific case, I think what the Shane Bomb did was very smart. 'Cause she proved that her theory works. You know, she has for over a year now there's been this tension and it seems like the US and Mexico they don't quite speak the same language. in which Mexico keeps delivering, you know, in terms of drugs that are being seized.

drug uh drug labs are being dismantled, people that have been captured, these mass transfers of suspects to US custody. So she's been betting on law enforcement big time. and cooperation between the two countries. But then you have Trump that every now and then We're ready to hit the Carcos on land. The US troops are ready to be on the ground on Mexican soul and up and do and run operations.

And then we had Caracas, which brought the reality, the possibility of an unilateral intervention. It just brought it home. It's on the doorstep. Um, so I think with this, what Shane Bomb did was proving her theory that look. We can cooperate. Let's cooperate. Let's have our security agencies sitting together. Let's share information. Let's share intelligence. And let's act on that intelligence. But when the time comes, when the moment arrives,

Mexican troops can do it. And Mexican troops will do it as well. With this, she proved that theory. You know, Mexico can also, you know, run these operations. We don't need US troops here. Let's keep on the terms of, you know, sharing intelligence, cooperation, having you know more specific policy items being uh developed between the two nations. But when the time is for, you know, the big show, Mexican troops can do it.

I know we kind of went over the fears that people have about what this could unleash, but I wonder if you could just also articulate for me a little bit more how taking out this cartel leader could have a positive net in impact. Potentially a positive. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just thinking about the answer. Yeah. Um, so I think I think as long as it's part of a broader strategy, this this might be possible.

And what what do we mean by broad but uh by a broader strategy? As you said, the Kingpin's strategy, which is just chopping off the head of the snake, removing the heads of of the group. Time and again has proved we we have a lot of evidence saying that it doesn't work, that it only creates more violence and the drug trafficking doesn't really stop.

So but these sort of operations combined with other strategies may actually work. What other strategies do I mean? I'm talking about debilitating, weakening, dismantling the financial structures that hold these organizations, the way they launder the profits of the many crimes they commit. For instance, that is very important. And I think the US and Mexico are also taking steps into that direction as well.

Now that we're talking about Puerto Vallarta most recently, they dismantle and sanction a long list of entities, Mexican entities, people, citizens as well. um connected to a very complex network of time sharing scams in places like Puerto Vallarta and other coastal cities. uh through which they were laundering money. So those sort of operations, you know, more turp more on the lines of follow the money are also important to actually weaken a cartel, a structure like this.

They also need to go after the small figures, you know, like the foot soldiers with m which credit where credit is due. Mexico has also been doing the president and uh Secretary Omar García Harf, which they update this figure and I think it's uh right now it's it stands at forty five thousand people who have been captured in drug uh drug related offenses in Mexico. The problem here is that

If you don't stop the recruitment capacity of these organizations, they're gonna keep, you know, like bringing fresh bodies, fresh victims into the the equation. So as part of a larger, more comprehensive strategy. this, you know, taking down figures like El Mencho. It's fine. I mean and we also need to acknowledge that He committed crimes and we're talking about really brutal kind not only like drug trafficking, which the most likely the US is what they wanted him for.

I'm talking about like the crimes that against Mexican civilians here, you know, like brutal crimes that's as massacres, disappearing people, forcefully displacing people. So this guy also need needed to be held accountable for for those crimes as well. So you know, like operations like these also serve that purpose. David, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Of course, no any time All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Plesson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

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