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Hi, everyone. I'm Jamie Poisson. So just shy of 4 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, we got an official election call. The Liberals have a minority government. They've got big plans and they've made big promises. But even though they've got a stunning 44% of the popular vote, they're now leading a country where 41% of voters coalesced around their biggest opponent, the Conservatives. And of course, they're still dealing with an erratic Donald Trump whose tariff war continues to be felt up here.
So can the Liberals make it work? What lessons should they learn from this short but incredible campaign? Paul Wells is back. He is a sub-stack under his own name. Just before we get into this, tomorrow we've got a whole post-mortem on the Conservative loss, including the... incredible outcome of Pierre Polyev losing his seat. I'm sure it will come up today, but we're going to deal with it head on tomorrow.
Paul, thanks so much for taking the time. Hi, Jamie. Thanks for having me. It's always a pleasure, really. So you and I are talking at around 6 p.m. Eastern time. The election has now been called, as I mentioned, it is a minority. It took a while, but we got there. Are there things that you think the liberals could have or should have done differently? I know a win is a win, but a lot of people did think that this would result in a majority, including many people on the liberal campaign.
I have now discussed this with people on the Carney campaign, which I didn't do particularly during the campaign. I just preferred to watch. It was all I could do to watch it while it was happening. And the big question is, did they essentially turn it off in the back half of the campaign? There didn't seem to be a lot of new ideas from the candidate. Starting the week of the debates anyway. And the sort of going back and back to the well.
of announcing that he was defending Canada against Donald Trump was paying diminishing returns because Trump was not showing up for that fight. The answer I got back is I actually believe that. I believe it was transparently a campaign.
in detail for the whole 35 days. And by midway through the campaign, it wasn't clear to them what they should say today. Yeah. The answer I got is that it's absolutely right. They didn't script the whole campaign. They script the opening several days and then improvised. And it was an unusual campaign because they were ahead from the first day of the campaign. And they had to protect their lead, which is something that…
Liberals are actually not used to doing. I mean, even when Trudeau was the prime minister getting elected and reelected, he would frequently start. behind the eight ball and have to battle his way forward. Whereas this time that was not a situation they were in. So long story short, I think they planned poorly, but they are defensive about it. Watching last night... I found Ontario so interesting. Why do you think they performed so much more poorly in Ontario and specifically...
in the GTA than expected. You know, Quebec generally did what they probably wanted to do, right? But Ontario, not so much. I think liberals, liberals in government, and too many journalists. underestimate the extent to which Paulyev's cost of living critique Felt real to people. People have had a hard time simply paying bills at the end of the month. Have felt like home ownership was slipping away from them.
I first started to take it seriously almost two years ago. I went to visit Hamilton East Stoney Creek, a riding. That went liberal in 2015 and where the liberal, um, X MP, Bob Bratina, who had retired was going to campaign for the conservative, Ned Couric. And, uh, Couric ended up, had a harder time of it than he expected, but he ended up winning last night. And, and what Bertina said was.
People here just can't imagine their children ever being able to own a house the way they owned a house as a matter of course. And the elements of a decent life, not fancy. but comfortable that you're able to build over many years in a long career in a decent field.
I mean, I sound like Pierre Poiliev when I talk like that, but simply because liberals had gotten out of the habit of talking like that. And it wasn't Donald Trump that was going to get voters off of that dime. Voters thought this was a real set of problems. were adamant that it would be addressed. And many, obviously not most, but many thought that only Pierre Paulier was consistently talking about it.
Yeah, and he has been for years, right? We talked last night about how he has managed to build a coalition with a lot more younger Canadians than conservatives usually are able to. And, I mean, it's because of that work that he's been putting in around housing and cost of living for a long time now. Carney has promised generational, historical, ambitious government projects, right? Reorienting our trading relationships, a multi-billion dollar housing plan, an east-west electricity grid.
These are tough things to do with a majority, let alone a minority. So is he going to deliver on those promises, you think? I think he intends to. I think he has set tight deadlines for himself on a lot of this stuff. The energy grid, project approval for things like the infrastructure around the Ring of Fire. Completing internal free trade by Canada Day.
which is on a long list of things he said that sound to me easier said than done. But, you know, not only has he said he's going to do it, he's attached a timetable to it. And I know from essentially scuttlebutt from the first couple days of his tenure as prime minister. that he's not sitting up there watching YouTube. He's meeting with officials, urging them on, making staffing decisions based on who has a sense of urgency.
And now we'll see what that comes to, but he absolutely intends to deliver. What do you think the consequences could be if he does it? Uh, catastrophic for the liberal party potentially. Um, I've been obsessed with the, the topic of catastrophic liberal defeat, uh, since I watched it happen to the Ontario and Quebec parties in 2018.
Both of those parties had replaced unpopular leaders with more popular leaders. The Ontario Liberals replaced Dalton McGinty with Kathleen Wynne and she went out and managed to win re-election. And the Quebec liberals, after Jean Charest lost to a PQ minority government, went out and got Philippe Couillard, a physician by training, who.
brought the liberals back to power after only a short interlude. And so it looked like the liberals had found the secret to bouncing back, but in the next election for both of those leaders. Each provincial party suffered its worst defeat since Confederation, and they really haven't gotten off the mat since then. Yeah. I've long believed that this was a possible fate for the Trudeau liberals. And I don't believe that Carney's arrival guarantees.
That it's off the, that it's off the table. Yeah. Cardi's got to deliver. Like the Canadians have put the liberals on probation and now you've got to deliver. Yeah. They've given them a chance. Yeah. Can you talk to me a little bit about what you think governing could look like for him in this situation, in the minority situation? Could there be deals made with the NDP or the block?
precedent for not having to strike a formal deal. Canadian minority government, both at the provincial level and federally usually proceeds without any formal agreement among parties. The party in power simply picks a likely ally on a given project. Conservatives are not likely to vote against a bill that enables resource development. The NDP is not likely to vote against a more generous social program, the block.
will generally support something if they can turn around and say that they got something for Quebec in return and so on and so on. And I mean, I actually think that. wiser than a formal deal. I think that Justin Trudeau's deal with Jagmeet Singh in 2022. helped to sink Trudeau because he became more obsessed with the terms of that deal than with listening to Canadians who are increasingly uncomfortable with the direction of his government.
And so I, you know, I think, I think that's, um, uh, if I was advising any prime minister in any circumstances, I would say improvise, don't get into contract. How much of an appetite do you think there is from Canadians for the kind of gridlock that we saw this year, the kind of opposition that we saw this year?
I think there's more appetite for that than is generally credited. Pierre Poiliev essentially gummed up parliament for half a year because he didn't like the answers he was getting from the liberals on procurement questions. He was very, his conservatives were very popular in the polls and not just sort of as an accident of fate, but I mean, I've got subscribers to my newsletter who were cheering him on every day, you know, and said, what the liberals do is.
unacceptable and thank God we've got Pierre Pauly of there to stop them. You know, I do, however, hear from dedicated career conservatives, staffers, campaign workers. advocates for the conservative movement who say it'd be nice if Pauliev and his crew could tone it down for a while because one way to read Monday's mandate is that centrism had a bit of a comeback and polarization.
suffered a setback for the first time in a few elections. What do you think this minority government means for our position in taking on Donald Trump? Does it put Canada in a weaker position? Yes, it puts Canada in a weaker position than if Canada were... United and unanimous wall to wall. But since Canada is never going to be united and unanimous wall to wall, I have believed since the beginning of this conflict that the more dangerous thing is to try and confect or coerce.
a unanimity that doesn't naturally exist. You know, trying to bully Danielle Smith into talking as though she wasn't from the resource producing province in the country is not going to get her to stop talking that way. So stop trying. And it's handy to remember that Donald Trump does not lead a unified coalition. There is no team America. He's been impeached twice. He's got half of the state governors launching lawsuits against most of what he does.
He will almost certainly face impeachment proceedings at some point in two years, if as is likely he loses the midterm. And more and more of his erstwhile allies are panicking over his economic decision. on Tuesday, a brief open conflict between Amazon and Trump. And I think Trump thought he had Jeff Bezos in his pocket. So look, if the Americans get to disagree about stuff.
Uh, so do Canadians and it's the job of, and it's the privilege of a Canadian government to try and piece together a workable coalition rather than dreaming about an unworkable coalition. How do you think Pierre Pauly, I suppose, if he stays on as leader, is going to approach how we deal with Trump and how the Carney administration deals with Trump? I think Poliev can read enough into these results that he will feel encouraged in the...
style and decisions he's made over the last couple of years, rather than dissuaded. I don't expect to see a repentant Pierre Paul yet. I would gently remind him that the only people in Canada who had a direct choice in his political future gave him a big thumbs down. And that maybe that's a message. But I know him this much. I think he tends to ignore discouraging voices, even when maybe he shouldn't.
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The split on the popular vote, 44% liberals, 41% conservatives. What do you think that means for how Mark Carney has to govern this country now? How is he going to reach out to the millions of Canadians that coalesced around one opposition? And in particular, a party that has pinned so many of the frustrations, like we've talked about, people have in their day-to-day lives on the liberals.
I doubt there'll be a Kearney doctrine of governing in a divided country. I mean, because I remember there was never really a Harper doctrine, much to the annoyance of his own supporters, Stephen Harper said. Harperism is what I decided to do today. And I'll tell you later how that went. Um, I, I, there's, there's days when you, there's days when you govern for your voters. There's days when you deliver. Tangible satisfaction to the people who sent you here. Because.
They're the ones you can most rely on. And there's days when you do try and reach out and broaden the tent. For Carney on many days, that won't be too difficult. All he has to do is find export markets for some of our natural resources. All he has to do is talk as though that's a good idea and he'll sound a little different from Justin Trudeau. But, uh. Like to me, it's not, there's not a knob somewhere that you turn to seven. It varies very much file by file.
Just on the West in particular, I don't want to overstate the separatist sentiment in the prairies, but Angus Reid found last month that 30 percent of Albertans and 33 percent of Saskatchewan. People in Saskatchewan said that they would vote to have their province become an independent country if the Liberals win. And just for context, those numbers were way higher back in 2019.
60% in Alberta, 53% in Saskatchewan. So we're not at a high watermark for Western separatism, but it's still significant, right? And the Liberals also did not pick up any seats in either province. Do you think just talking about resource development is going to be enough? Or does he need to do more? I think at some point there's nothing he can do. I mean.
There were, there's a lot of people you can find them online who didn't think Pierre Pauliev was nearly conservative enough. There's a, you know, there's a lot of people who think that Canada, people everywhere, certainly in rural Alberta who think that Canada is a fundamentally. But a lot of what Trudeau did to alienate people was small, and I'm not sure he even noticed himself doing it. Simply not meeting with...
Western leaders, simply not meeting with the premiers as a group, simply not ever backing away from a project because it was unpopular. in the places that hadn't voted Liberal. I mean... Some of this is a matter of ear. Chrystia Freeland, of all people, was able to make real progress after the 2019 election when she was Intergovernmental Affairs Minister.
Simply by going out and meeting with the Jason Kenney government as it then was, and, uh, sounding like she was, was taking what they said seriously. Um, there was less of that after a while, and there can be a return to that without too much. expenditure of effort. Yeah. I know people were critical of Carney during the campaign when he kind of made fun of Danielle Smith, hey?
Doug Ford on to Fox News to show them that we're not messing around up here and we're going to send Danielle next. No, maybe we won't send Danielle. No, maybe we won't. We won't send Danielle. No, no, it's a bad idea. Strike that. Strike that. I think that sort of speaks to what you're talking about. We talked earlier about how if Carney doesn't deliver here, the result could be catastrophic for the Liberal Party. How short do you think...
I don't know, do we want to call it a honeymoon period? Especially at a time, I would say, when many analysts are predicting a recession. Yeah, I mean, so I... I think there will be a, not a honeymoon period. I don't know anyone who's sort of enamored with Mark Kearney, even in the way that some people were with Kamal Harris a year ago in the US election. Uh, like there's nothing glamorous about, about the way Carney became prime minister and the way he.
sought legitimacy in an election. But there's respect and space for a new government that has to set up shop and make its first moves. figure out how to do things differently from its predecessor. And Stephen Harper got that in 2006 and Justin Trudeau got. know, arguably more than, more than he had earned in 2015. Um, I think it's fair for, and I think it will be deemed fair, including by many in the conservative caucus for.
everybody in parliament to give Mark Carney room to walk or stumble. Um, how long that'll last? Uh, I'll tell you how long it lasted after it's over. Okay. Fair. I do want to talk about the future of the Liberal Party's coalition. In particular, we kind of mentioned it earlier, the youth vote or young people. So there was this massive mock election called Student Vote held by this group Civics, along with Elections Canada. And this election...
And this election, they got 900,000 students from elementary through high school to cast ballots in a mock federal election. And the conservatives won it, 36.4% to 31.7% for the liberals. And I found this fascinating. And what do you think that says for the future of the Liberal Party? Young people will always find a way to scandalize their elders. When our kids were in middle school, they did it by listening to incredibly boring music.
And we would say, why do you not listen to rock and roll? And the answer was because you do. Um, uh, the, the next thing after woke is going to be a certain backlash against the assumptions behind wokeism and it'll last as long as things do. And it will have adherents who stick to that. belief culture for the rest of their lives. And again, The things that Polyev pointed out and complained about.
are often real things. People have a sense that the future doesn't have a place for them. The young people, this is kind of eternal, but it's also current, aren't sure that.
The all singing, all dancing governments of the modern age, which seem to believe they have an answer to everything are particularly helping. It's easy to feel things like that in a way that translates as conservatism. And I. I didn't follow the youth vote this year, but I'm not horribly surprised based on conversations I've had with young people to hear that there's a conservative turn in the wind.
There was when I was a kid too. And the winds have shifted four times since then. Okay. That feels like a good place to end. Paul, thank you so much. All right, that's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca.