AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation Story 06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold 08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken 12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks 14:58 Th...
May 13, 2026•49 min
Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people. This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage. We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer wea...
May 09, 2026•54 min
Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint. Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again. We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong? 07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy 11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12...
May 06, 2026•50 min
Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades. This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets. We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy!...
Apr 30, 2026•1 hr 3 min
AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain. Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural. We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. ...
Apr 29, 2026•56 min
Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long. This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy. We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tensio...
Apr 24, 2026•1 hr 4 min
Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be ...
Apr 22, 2026•59 min
Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality. This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move. We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 ...
Apr 16, 2026•37 min
AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks? We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests. We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses...
Apr 15, 2026•48 min
Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down. This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows. We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, no...
Apr 10, 2026•57 min
A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era. Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy. We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestima...
Apr 07, 2026•53 min
AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value. We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks. We explore collapsing valuation models, AI-driven productivity, shifting labor dynamics, the compute arms race, and ...
Apr 06, 2026•33 min
Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding. We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows. We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 06...
Apr 03, 2026•1 hr 1 min
Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablec...
Apr 01, 2026•33 min
Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for. Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined. We explore oil supply risks, the Fed’s policy trap, liquidity constraints, the ongoing banking regime shift, and how these forces could...
Mar 27, 2026•41 min
AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building? Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycle. We explore AI-driven abundance, crypto as agent infrastructure, oil and liquidity risks, tokenized d...
Mar 25, 2026•42 min
In this special episode, we introduce Blockworks’ new investor relations platform for onchain businesses. As institutional capital continues to enter crypto markets, expectations around transparency, standardization, and professionalism are rising. But instead of replicating legacy systems, Blockworks IR takes a different approach, leveraging real-time, onchain data to create a more transparent, data-driven, and low-friction investor relations model. The platform combines curated analytics, bran...
Mar 24, 2026•22 min
We explore a market caught between fragile stability and mounting geopolitical pressure, where central banks, energy shocks, and liquidity constraints collide in unpredictable ways. Quinn and Felix break down the latest Fed meeting, shifting rate expectations, and how global energy disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping macro positioning and investor sentiment. We cover energy shocks, policy paralysis, equity vulnerability, geographic imbalances, and why markets may be underestimating seco...
Mar 20, 2026•50 min
In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth. We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy. We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimatin...
Mar 18, 2026•48 min
In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:46) Iran War Update (08:08) Jobs Data, Bonds and Economic Deteriora...
Mar 13, 2026•56 min
Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, Eric Wallerstein, explores how shifting geopolitics, Trump-era monetary policy, and structural economic forces are reshaping global macro. We cover tariffs, the dollar, Iran-driven market shocks, Fed balance sheet strategy, and the future of bank regulation. Along the way, we also unpack AI productivity, repo market fragility, and why Latin America could be the next macro frontier. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Felix: http...
Mar 11, 2026•59 min
This week, we explore how the Iran escalation is stress-testing a fragile, late-cycle financial system already stretched by years of easy liquidity. We examine oil volatility, energy chokepoints, bonds failing as safe havens, and the growing risk that geopolitics could trigger a broader liquidity event. We also discuss AI CapEx, private credit stress, political tensions, and the shifting structure of global markets. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/...
Mar 06, 2026•1 hr 6 min
In this first episode of Inflection Point, we explore the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and crypto as institutional adoption begins reshaping the foundations of global financial infrastructure. The conversation examines ETFs, DeFi innovation, market structure shifts, institutional flows, and how evolving investor behavior is changing Bitcoin and digital asset markets. Along the way, we discuss regulation, credit markets, technology limitations, and the broader implications...
Mar 05, 2026•1 hr 4 min
CEO of LB Macro Luigi Buttiglione explores whether the AI-driven productivity boom marks a durable shift in the global economy or the start of new financial imbalances. We discuss U.S. exceptionalism, neutral rates and monetary policy risks, leverage in the AI buildout, public debt sustainability, and Europe’s structural challenges. We also touch on geopolitical supply shocks and what they could mean for inflation and rates. Enjoy! __ Follow Luigi: https://x.com/LButtiglione_ LB Macro Portal: ht...
Mar 04, 2026•52 min
We discuss the latest AI productivity disruptions, market reactions to the Citrini piece, NVIDIA earnings, and why capital keeps rotating away from software toward real assets, energy, and commodities. We also explore volatility, policy distortions, and signs of economic reacceleration. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://x.com...
Feb 26, 2026•55 min
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart discusses the $9 billion crypto ETF exodus, the spaghetti cannon approach to new ETF launches, and why the great sector rotation into energy, materials, and industrials creates the perfect environment for active managers while AI steals crypto’s speculative thunder. We also dig into the risks of levered and covered call ETFs, index rebalancing, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance...
Feb 25, 2026•46 min
This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://...
Feb 21, 2026•44 min
This week, we break down evidence of a quiet Main Street re-acceleration, exploding market dispersion, AI-driven shifts in correlations, why passive strategies are being disrupted, and where capital is rotating across real assets, rates, and global markets. Enjoy! — FollowTyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ...
Feb 13, 2026•1 hr
Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Vincent Deluard explains his three-bubble thesis for 2026, why tax receipts reveal stronger nominal growth than headline data, how fiscal stimulus could fuel a second inflation wave, the Fed’s likely policy path under Kevin Warsh, and why international diversification matters more than ever. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Bl...
Feb 11, 2026•53 min
This week we break down the brutal de-leveraging across markets, why AI CapEx is flipping the old buyback playbook and what it means for Mag7, crypto's bloodbath, the next moves from the Fed and bond market. We also dig into credit risk, factor rotations, the Epstein list, and why gold is sending a louder signal than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter....
Feb 06, 2026•1 hr 6 min
