Hello, I'm Peter Townsend, and welcome to forecast the post-election episode after five grueling weeks. And I'm just talking our weekly forecast episodes here. The election has been run and won, and the libs are back for a fourth historic term, albeit in minority. Here to go through the entrails of the election, as they have for the past five weeks. Win news director Alex Johnston. Hello and Mercury chief political
reporter David Killer Killick. Great to be here. And of course, returning from his secondment to the Liberal campaign is Brad Stansfield, who has been absolutely champing at the bit to come back to forecast today. And the first question I have for you, Brad, is did you have roast turkey for dinner last night?
Yes. Speech. Um, no, I didn't, but I would have loved to have had some. I think I had some pork instead, but, uh. Yeah, roast turkey, gravy, a barrel. Definitely on the menu on Saturday night. And look, it is thrilling to be back on the show of, um, uh, in just listened, uh, enjoyed and endured in various parts over the past five weeks. And I'm really thrilled to be able to restore some balance to this program. Although it pains.
Me to say that some people have given feedback that they actually missed you in the same way that miss Mr.. Mr. Burns, if he wasn't on The Simpsons, I imagine. But anyway, I don't think he's been through the sheep dip enough times to be honest.
I had some feedback that people just missed the, uh, the tighter tie between myself and Alex. Oh, well.
I can strap themselves in for the next hour or so. All right, well, come on, Brad, you've got to say it. Give us. Give us your $0.10 worth.
Well, um, I would start out with this comment. Um, elections are about winning. There is only two options. You are the winner or you lose. And, um. Uh. We won.
Did you. Did you know who won in 2010 then? Labor. Well. Sharp intake of breath. Yeah. Do you want to go beach or should we start there? You go for it, AJ. It's all yours. I mean, the idea was to provide a stable parliament. And now you're going to have to rely on a crossbench, some of which we don't know yet. Of course, still a lot of votes to be counted. But give me the pitch. Why are we in a more stable position than we were five weeks ago, when
the election wasn't due for another 13 months? All right.
A few things. Firstly, as alluded to, the turkeys, the rebels are gone. Yep. No, as is just full of record, I think, noting the attempted, um, uh, comeback from the from the original rebel. Miss Hickey also failed, and I think so. I think there's just a broader lesson there and what the electorate think about people that are disloyal to their party. So that's my first point.
The interests of democracy are not always exactly the same as a vendetta, but it's good that it's good that you.
People have spoken.
The people have spoken. It's great that it aligned with your interests. I saw John Tucker on Saturday night. He said he had no regrets. He was proud of the way he stood up for what he believed in. He did cop it from you. And I've had lots of feedback that the way that they've been described and by myself as well, calling them defectors was, um, unfair. Uh, but do you have anything nice to say about them now? They're out of political life? Brad.
No, no, I think that, um, as I said, possibly in the last episode, I was here. The most important thing in politics is loyalty. And if you are disloyal, then political sense. You deserve everything you got coming through. All right? That's what's happened. So that's the biggest point. But yeah.
So second point. Why are we in a better position now? All right.
Let's do a bit of math. Now my David's got about 15 spreadsheets over there and a calculator ready to ready to calculate against me. But, um, I would make this point. The parliament went from 25, 6 to 35 seats. Um, the labor seat count went from 9 to 10. I think that's where it will end on my assessment and Kevin Bonham's assessment. So, as we know, made him always on a unity ticket. Um, so that is, by my calculation, they went from that was, uh, in a 25 seat parliament.
They were at 36% of the parliament, and they are now going to be at 28% of the parliament. So labor representation in the Parliament has actually gone backwards. The Liberal Party started the election at 11 seats, uh, and by the end of the count will be at 15 under 35, which by my calculation is a 1% drop from 44 to 43. So essentially the same representation. So I think the first point to be made is the Liberal position in the Parliament is proportionally as good as
it was beforehand. In fact, it sped up because their main opponents have gone backwards.
But you didn't get back the two seats that, um, went to the crossbench. Is that a failure?
No. Third point I would make is that, as alluded to in the first point, the the rebels have gone and they have been replaced by.
Yes. Jealous? Who?
Well, no. Mostly unknowns, but I think the point can fairly be made. And judging by the public comments of Senator Lambie, that they are people who are minded to deliver stability and certainty rather than being monitored, deliver wrecking and vendettas and instability. That's that's a very big difference. The Parliament is completely different in that sense. The wreckers are gone and people are there that want to make it work.
Mark those words. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. A picture of stability. Yeah. I mean, it's going to be great. John Tucker and Laurie Alexander were two virtues of stability for a long time and then changed their mind. But let's hope for Brad's sake that, um, he knows what he's getting himself into. Well,
let's hope for Tasmania's sake. I mean, when we're sitting here looking at the party that won 37% of the vote, forming government over the party that won 29% of the vote, you know, it's a lot of people didn't vote for a major party. That's right.
It's guys, you know, the election's over. You know the kool aid. The government has been returned. Asterisk. Yeah. Our government has been returned.
Government has a government has been returned. It'll require the support of people who've been named. And speaking of knowing, the election's over, did you? Right. Um, Jeremy Rockliff speech on Saturday night. Premiers words. Goodness me. It was like George Bush on the aircraft carrier mission. Mission accomplished, wasn't it?
And great. And what happened 23 hours later.
24 hours later, he remembered that it was probably not a very good speech and changed his tune.
No, Alex. 24 hours later, the opposition leader did what she should have done on election night and conceded because she couldn't form government from ten seats. I'll forget about.
Labor. We'll get to their problems.
So my point is, you have to.
Admit he got the tone badly wrong on Saturday night and rectified it yesterday. No, the.
Premier declared victory on Saturday night because he won on Saturday night, Saturday night, as was then confirmed on Sunday when the opposition leader conceded defeat.
But why not on Saturday night? Say that clearly the government was sent a message like he said yesterday. Like Michael Ferguson said today credit where it's due. I think they've said all the right things since, but on Saturday night it looked like.
Would you prefer to concede it on Saturday night?
No. Well another victory like that. And he would have had to you know, I mean you can't you can't have another win like that where you lose 12% of your 12, you suffer a 12% swing and lose.
25% of vote buying labor 11 and the executive building out the Labor Party.
Yeah, well, but when 60% of the population don't vote for you, I'm not sure you can make the speech that Jeremy Rockliff made on Saturday night. Where was the concession that a lot of people have voted for a different option? Um, anyway, I thought he'd got it right yesterday. It's just perplexing. On Saturday night.
Memo to Premier. Don't declare victory when you win.
I mean, you were very harsh. And Rebecca White's speech in 2018 when she lost. Yes, when she lost. But you know, similar, um, misstep in terms of reading the room, I would have thought, um, no. Okay. Well, you are the first person to say that out of about 150 people I've talked to about it.
So have you been outside of Clark?
Uh, no, obviously, I haven't been outside of Clark. No, it's it's a quaint tradition of the parliament, I thought, that decides who forms government. Who becomes premier. Is that is that not.
Is that the voters to decide? Voters and the voters.
Decide who goes to parliament? The parliament decides to form government and the leader of that party becomes premier. Well, I think there's this saga has a little way to go. We've got a few weeks of uncertainty. He'll actually form Parliament. I think. I admire your certitude.
The rock of Liberal government has been returned.
So Kelly's right. It's impact. Killing is right. You're very lucky that the Labor Party is scared of itself and scared of the prospect of governing with the Greens. Because they could they could Stuart. All right. So you that speech was made knowing that labor would buckle on the Sunday. Okay. Well once again you're playing you're playing chess and the rest of us are playing tic tac toe. Well no. Hold on. I will throw in my $0.10 worth I've given you. I've given you all a bit of leash
here to go for it. Uh, to let Brad to get it out of his system to Brad. It's got more bent. And for you gents to argue your position. Look, the reality is that my reading of it was was labor on on Saturday night were still keeping the dream alive. They were looking at trying to come up with a solution that was workable, that would see them governed. Right. That was definitely the messages that I was receiving. I suspect, by the nods that you gents were receiving similar kinds
of commentary regarding that. So. Oh, I could just tell by the speech that Rebecca White wanted to release. Let the dust settle.
So let's come in here. I'm sorry, you guys, who are guardians of our democracy through the Fourth Estate, seemed to be suggesting that you thought it absolutely fine that Rebecca might. Go back on her word and do a deal with the Greens.
No, I'm not saying that.
Well, that was the only.
Way there was then. A defending steel is basically a labor form government. I mean, it it would require some extraordinary, some extraordinary. Um, yeah. Diplomacy and going back on their word. Yeah, she would be punished for that. But like David said, you know, they're the people have spoken. If those other parties in opposition or decided to form a coalition, I mean.
Integrity in politics, whatever happened to it? Boy, I'm not.
Saying that she wouldn't have been punished or not. They first, wouldn't it certainly be cheering for their I'm not cheering for the outcome. But of course that is a possibility. It happens in Europe all the time.
So don't go into elections promising not to do it.
No, no. And then you would hit them over the head with a political hammer and that's fine. And I think they were stupid at the speech Rebecca White made on election night. She should have made in the first day of the campaign. And more people might have considered voting Labour, or at least preferencing Labour. I think it was the the right speech at the wrong time. So but it was too upbeat. It was too much of
a victory speech rather than a concession speech. No. But she touched on some very good points that Jeremy Rockliff failed to do. She had a much better, such as a lot of people did not vote for the major parties. And you've got to respect that and you've got to interpret that as well. Maybe we're not the greatest, you know, God's gift to our, you know, democracy. Let me let me just make a point. And then you can keep
you can keep going with Iran. And we'll call this not a podcast, but we'll call it a rant fest. But look, the reality is that what was swirling around the, the, the the tally room, right? And thank God we had a tally room. It was that labor were trying to stitch up a deal. First point. Second point is if you want something, you've got to claim it. So what Premier Rockliff did was he came in and he claimed it. He claimed his ground and he said it was his
election and it was his win. That's what occurred. Right. And it was the next day that labor realised that they weren't going to be able to pull something together. And so Rebecca White had to concede defeat. That's what occurred. And that's why the premier delivered the speech he delivered. And that's why Rebecca delivered the speech she delivered on
the night. And that's what occurred, I think. I think the premier could have certainly celebrated the result and made the point that we are in a much, much, much stronger position than labor to form this government. No, he didn't do that. He turned down step further. No, no. And he broke with tradition. He turned up before the opposition leader. Right. And he said, I have won this election. I am claiming my victory, full stop. That's what he did.
And he forced labor to think about that and to think about what they would do in response to it. That's a fact. That's what occurred. I think the criticism of both leaders, in hindsight is a glorious thing. And I think, you know, with the benefit of that, um, you know, we can we can say, I think Mr. Rockliff was too quick to claim victory. And, um, and and Rebecca Whitestone was possibly wrong. These speeches, these comments are made in the heat of a fevered night of excitement.
And when the numbers aren't really known, I think you can forgive for people for not getting it exactly spot on. However, I'm going to disagree. I'm sorry. One party throughout this campaign aggressively campaigned to win, and one other party sort of went through the campaign with sort of a wishy washy approach. And all that Rockliff did at that speech night was claim victory, just as he's aggressively campaigned with a retail style of politics all the way through the campaign.
That's what occurred. It's why why do we see such a dramatic change of tone the next day? Because I think you'll find that labor had realised that they should be conceding defeat. Well, I they certainly did that, but I don't think it had anything to do with Jeremy Rockliff speech. I think the everyone other than Rebecca White, I think, thought the prospect of trying to govern from such a weak position, it was just untenable. But she was thinking it. And so the Premier called it out.
It's clear she was more than thinking it. It was conversations being had.
I actually don't know that no one well, I mean, maybe I was out of the loop. Well out of the loop and and what between. Yeah, between labor and the Greens. Of course there was, was there? Well, Rosalie Woodruff said today that she has not heard from either party leader. But she also think it.
Would have been through the conversations at the top.
Since the election. What benefit would it do either of them to talk before things are settled? You're not going to go out on a lecture night and say, oh, we've just stitched up a deal. So that's far fetched.
They did in 99.
Okay. All right. I want to hear. Yeah, I actually do want to hear more from Brad. Okay, good. Which bit do you want to hear? He's going to go find some questions.
Yeah. Um.
Do you think that you went backwards in the election campaign from where you started it or improved your position?
Uh, jumping ahead in the script here, but we went, um, forwards and then, uh, went backwards on the last week, uh, directly as a result of the launch of the AFL team on the Monday night.
You went backwards because of the launch of the AFL team? Yes. Despite being the party that's been the strongest supporter of the AFL team.
Explains. Might be revelation to you guys. Not to not to David because he agrees with me. The stadium. I've yet the the biggest pile of stinking poo in this state. The stadium politically really. Uh, and very refreshing. We spent the you know, this has been my view all along. I think the record will show this. Um, of course, we spent the entire campaign variously trying to polish that turd or to cover it up and disguise it with
various other pieces of shiny announcement. So it wasn't talked about.
So therefore you don't buy in to some people's view, and certainly not mine, that the overwhelming support for the team equates to an overwhelming support for the stadium.
Well, no. In fact, again, our vote went backwards in the last week because what that launch did was bring to the fore that issue. And as a result, many, many more people went to the ballot box thinking about that rather than thinking about what we wanted to talk about, was think about just a majority government.
And is there any chance in the world your vote went backwards in the last week because last Sunday you came out and Undemocratically said, if you disagree with the Liberal Party, you'll be kicked out of Parliament. No, really got just wall to wall. Great feedback on that idea. Um, when will we see that enshrined?
Well, when it passes the parliament, I presume. Alex.
Are you going to stick with that one?
The entire 2030 strong plan cap here.
Includes.
Non-negotiable.
You couldn't. Includes making people cap in hand. The plan?
Well, um.
What will be the threshold when Eric Abetz votes votes against conversion conversion therapy or I think.
Yeah, that is a very long bow, Alex. I don't think it was made clear in the campaign that that is not the threshold. The threshold is easy for you, I don't know, quit your party to join another party or be an independent, which is what happened.
And that's it. I hate to agree, but I will on the stadium. I'll offer a piece of weak data.
Yes, I've got a weak correlation.
Yeah, the swing against the liberals was strongest. The further you got from the stadium seems harder. Wow. So, um, in Lyons, the swing against the liberals. Tell me if I've done the maths wrong. 13.6%. Um, in Barada in in bass 21.85%. Correct. That's where the alternate games would be played. A stadium wasn't built where the.
Stadium wasn't being built. One of.
The point. Yeah. And in Braddon, 11.9. That confounds the the sort of straight line the further you get from home. There was a.
Premier factor.
There. The less the stadium there was um, you know whereas Ian Clarke and Franklin minus four minus eight.
There you.
Go. There's your, there's your. Um, there's some dialogue I can add.
To that writing style, uh, which came in from the field via a candidates that it was the number one issue on the doors north of Baghdad.
That's right. It's funny. I mean, I got anecdotal evidence it was a problem for labor on the doors down here as well. So maybe the both things can be true. I think it was a problem for labor.
There's another position that was their problem.
Well, they didn't they certainly didn't benefit from their anti-stadium stance. No, they didn't benefit. So what does that mean then. That.
Well, well hang on, we'll come to that. But um, to be clear, um, it was the biggest single drag on the Liberal campaign was the stadium. There was this this election campaign was about one thing. It was the stadium. It just wasn't said out loud. But it was the main issue in this campaign. Two parties that gained votes and gained seats were clearly against the stadium, the Lambies and the Greens. And you cannot argue with that. Yep.
If the Labor Party had have had a clear, strong position against it from the start, if Rebecca White had stood on Macquarie Point every single day and said, I hate this thing, and then every second day said, I'm going to build this hospital instead of that thing. Labor would be in government today.
Let me be the first to say correlation is not causation, but there is a correlation there. Um, you know, there could be other reasons that that could be true. And that's the main.
That's the main campaign.
Yeah.
That's the biggest single drag. And as I say, the evidence was that our campaign, uh, went well when they weren't talking about the stadium. We're talking about it. It went bad.
Well, that's very interesting. And that'll have huge ramifications, I imagine. No. How so? Well, why does it make people very nervous that. Are on the right track. They're going to forge ahead with it. The stadium will be built.
The bizarre thing is, and you know, I'm the one that said it would never get built. It will now get built because it has survived. The government has survived. The only government in favorite party has survived, and it will now get built.
And they'll survive by building a coalition with a party that's against it.
Are they? Not so much. Troy Pfitzner, for example, wasn't against it, nor was Jacqui Lambie today. And Jacqui said she.
Reminds us.
It reminds.
A skeptic.
Yes, that's a difference to being an opposition, isn't it? And, you know, do the math. Um, was David Byrne's position.
So you think it will be built? Will it be built at Macquarie Point, or is there any appetite for looking at this second option? No, no, it'll.
Be built at Macquarie Point as planned. A government has survived. The stadium has survived. It got a big scare. The government got a big scare as a result of it. But it will now be built and I fully expect, um, the Labor Party, uh, to have a position on the stadium under their new leader, and I expect that position will be that they will support it, but criticise it as to how much it costs and how many bricks aren't laid on it. That's what I would do.
I agree, I think that's where they'll end up and that'll be healthy.
So, Mr. O'Brien, you can breathe easy. Save the stadium on the tape.
Oh thanks, Brad. Goodness me. I mean, they're talking about who to name the first grandstand after. Maybe the Stansfield wing's got a not much of.
An AFL player.
That couldn't smash save the team. Listen, let's call it the cup of. What a hero. Well, my.
Point is, the government being re-elected has saved the team. If any other result, the team was dead. There was no doubt about that.
All right. Well, I reckon talking about the stadiums as toxic for focus as it is. So maybe let's move on a little bit. So. So, Brad, there was a lot of eyebrows raised over the Lambie website. What's your what's your view on that one?
I mean, you know, much ado about nothing. I mean, sort of these kind of websites are passé for political campaigns going back sort of to the invention of the internet under Malcolm Turnbull. Um, you know, obviously Senator Lambie got a little bit upset about it. But, you know, you know, she did tell the perimeters, stick the stadium up his bum. That was okay. You know, it's an election campaign.
Don't you tell people that you shouldn't bring attention to your political opponents. I thought that was one of your fundamental rules.
Why did the, uh, Lambie's poll there, David, in your little thing there across the state? Well, it.
Depends on are you think you knocked them down a peg or two? Well, what.
Was the state.
.76?
What was what was the polling state of the campaign for lamps.
So you don't think they hands on which, which polls.
But I think any poll had them as low as 6.7%.
No. It had them in double figures if I remember rightly. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Tick that. Another tick. Sam, what about any regrets from the campaign? Brad. Anything at.
All? I would like to win a few more seats, but at the end of the day, as I said at the start, um, as long as you get enough to form a government, then you've done your job.
I think there's an aviation saying any crash, any landing you walk away from is a good one. You know, like that was a crash landing. That was, you know, and asterisk Parliament hasn't resumed. We saw what the minority. What hey, the liberals went in minority over the last 12 months, and it wasn't pretty. Um, your potential coalition partners are very unknown. Um, you know, this this could not this could not go well. Well, this might be one.
This might be a poisoned chalice. Well, that's that's such.
That's a enthusiasm. That's a different argument. But, you know, I've been listening to the forecast for the last five weeks with you guys telling us how Crépel going to go, and we're going to lose.
Hang on a minute. I had you on 16. Oh you did. That's seats at the end, Dave. And change to.
Dave is going to change around on that last poll that was now out of date which.
And which I suspect was.
But I'll return to my central particularly accurate, you know, in election campaigns you either win or you lose. Um, and I always prefer to be on the winning side of election campaigns. And I think fairness, if you ask anyone in the Labor Party whether they'd rather be, uh, on, on this side or the other side, I think know their answer.
Have you lumbered yourself with way too many promises now? Like there's a long list of things you promised, both in terms of things you're going to build, things you're going to do, like the Utas promise. Have you given yourself an unem an impossible list of things to now achieve?
Well, no. What I think, and this is how the government is different to the previous one. The government now has a clear agenda for the next four years, which it didn't have before. And we might recall when Peter Gowan called a snap election in 21, he really didn't have any sort of agenda, just sort of campaigned on. I saved you all from Covid. Then Jeremy came in and picked up whatever Peter didn't have, and there was
no clear plan or agenda. So there's now a very different you know, you're going to be seeing a lot more of this 2030 strong plan over the next few years.
Are we lucky? So let's let's just do a bit of things in it. Yeah. Let's do let's just do a little bit of round the grounds, a little bit of winners and losers. Shall we just go through some.
Any more questions?
I just one more for Brad. All right. Because this is from a keen listener. You're obviously in today a friend. You're obviously in today. And I'm very pleased you are because it would be a very boring show without you. But you're going to you're going to have a role in helping them nut out how to make the crossbench work over the next few weeks.
No. My contract, our contract once contract ended on election night or yesterday. And, um, I'm just a humble member of the Liberal Party now.
Well, I think your comments on the stadium might suggest that, you know, they were quite refreshing, but, um, but you're obviously you can pick up the phone if they need you, I guess. Oh, well.
Always I'm always here for, you know, want to seek my views?
Seek your counsel.
It doesn't mean they'll take notice of it, though, as I think we've seen over the last few years.
All right, let's just do let's just do a quick round the grounds, talk a few about a few of the winners and the losers just out of it. Uh, I couldn't, uh, not let you have your opportunity to have a chat about Turkey's bread. What's your view? Oh, well.
It's not much more to say, really, other than I'm a completely unsurprised. And I didn't have them even getting close to elected in my pre-election predictions.
Well, it was a mixed result. John Tucker on the count so far, half his primary vote from the previous election, Lara Alexander has actually tripled her.
So she got six votes.
Yeah.
I mean it's a low base.
No, no, I, um, you know, just by way of observation, the.
Yeah. Like so less like in statistic.
The data throws up some interesting, interesting results. But, uh, they both put their name up 1447 as of today and both put their name up for, uh, for judgment from the people, Brad, which neither you or I have ever done. So I think they deserve some credit there.
Again. Um, I'm sorry, I do not in any way, shape or form ascribe to disloyalty.
I'm just trying to give you a life raft here. No you're not. Look, I saw.
Mr. Tucker on election night, and, um, you know, we had a pleasant conversation. Um, and away from politics, I've got no problem with him in the political field, you know? Um.
No. Yeah. No, I mean, I'm not saying what they did was right. I think, um, they caused the state an unnecessary amount of turmoil. And I think they could have actually made a virtue out of their principled position by staying in the tent and making some noise and being seen as a agitators for change. Um, and I got it wrong on John Tucker. I thought that he would, um, do well because of the name recognition and because of that primary vote last time. And I got that one wrong,
one of many that I got wrong. Ah, well, you know, it was brave.
At least in electing Lohberger.
Yeah, well that's right. Exactly right. I think that was my classic file. But look, uh, well, we were both wrong on Saheki two. We were.
And, um, I'm big enough to admit that I thought she would get back, too, so I was surprised. Thank you.
Yeah. So her vote halved. Do we have any understanding as why that might occurred? What's the sense?
Well, I think the simple sense was, um, that last time she got a lot of liberal ex-liberal votes in Sandy Bay. And once she became the deputy mayor of Glenorchy, those votes evaporated. Okay. And I might point out, at the risk of again copping a a tongue lashing, that, uh, Miss Hickey was for the utas move.
And there was more competition, too. Yeah, that's a good point. But there was, you know, Ben Leuenberger didn't get elected, but he got a nice little chunk of votes. Yep. There was a lot more competition in the Sue Hickey sort of pool of independents, you know, integrity, that sort of thing. So okay. So Dean young we've lost Dean I think we finished.
And Clark, anything else you want to talk about in Clark since we're there?
Well the Greens won two and I didn't expect that.
No.
Agreed. Yeah that's a that's a big effort. Uh, even with the seven seat electorate, to win two is a big effort. And that's testament I think. You know the Greens lost Cassy O'Connor and you thought oh this might stall them. But certainly we thought it might make them less effective in Parliament. Well credit where it's due I think actually going from a leader to a real team of uh Rosalie and vicar and they do things together and they, they tag team in on different issues. I
think that's worked well. And Howe and Helen Burnett will make a good member of Parliament. She's solid. She's been around many years. Knows the city inside out. Yeah.
Look I mean the Greens I think actually ran a very smart campaign that they, you know, they they worked very hard to mainstream themselves in inverted commas. I even saw a, a a claim which put all my claims to shame when they told Sean Ford at The Advocate that they were pro-mining, uh, but they were very, very
focused on that. And apart from Bob Brown organizing one protest, which I'm sure that he was going to do, whether or not they liked it, um, they did a very good job at sort of mainstreaming themselves.
Now, did my, uh, story that had the TCC encouraging people to vote green, Liberal or Labor. Did that make it to the level 11? And you got any comments on that?
Say it raised as many eyebrows in level 11, but in the, uh, campaign HQ as it apparently did here in the last font Cat podcast. Yes, um, certainly.
Did in this office.
That's quite, um, can you believe.
On the last day or second last day of a campaign, the chief business lobby would do anything but campaign for minority government or as a business? Sorry, minority government?
Well, as a businessman, no.
I found it surprising.
Oh, I found it extraordinary.
So I found it refreshing, but I found it surprising.
Yeah. I don't think, um, many businesses would have found it refreshing.
Well, I'm not a small business owner, obviously. Well, my golf videos don't make me any money. So to round out Clark. So Ella had topped the poll for labor fine effort. I've got to say beat Josh Willey. I was a bit surprised by that, but glad to see it for Ella's sake. And in terms of the liberals,
some Iraqis did very well. Madeleine, I think, got a bit of a scare from Marcus Verm, but I think I've been sort of predicting that one, that Marcus is well known in the community and did really well for himself. How close is that going to be, do you think? Ah, look, it's going to be reasonably close. Marcus worked his tail off throughout the campaign and Madeleine.
And David go through spreadsheets, but I think Madeleine will be pretty safely home.
Yeah, yeah. Um, I'll tell you a bet I made on the 15th of February that you'll laugh at because Julie and Amos put out the former labor MP, put out a newsletter suggesting that he thought that Stuart Benson might gazump El-haddad and become the second labor member in Clark. And I sent him a little text at 11:12 a.m. that said, if El-haddad doesn't get elected, I'll eat my car. So anyway, I don't have to have it. I don't have to have a Skoda for dinner tonight. You are a.
Known fan of Stuart Benson's, so you know.
Well, I was she got a substantially bigger vote than Stuart Benson. Look, I'm not going to bag anyone who put their name up. I thought, Ella, go on. You did very well. Elliott is underestimated. She is by because she is a perfect labor candidate for her electorate in a different electorate. Maybe not, but in Clark, she knows it. She's. Progressive. She's not boisterous, she works hard and I think was proven, but I would have guessed Josh Willie would have got
more votes as well. And he did. And so that's a big win to L.A., even though the vote wasn't, you know, in the stratosphere are still pretty solid. I think L.A. should reflect on what that means for her and what it. Ellen barletta well, well, I'm just saying. Well, here we go. Well, I'm just saying, when she walks into the room, L.A. is, uh, fairly meek in terms of as a politician. She's not that kind of person that's aggressive and puts forward, um, a huge amount of
sort of political ambition. She just wants to get on and do things. But with that kind of vote really shows that she's got, I think, real potential politically astute. I agree. That's exactly right. So all right.
Let's just keep it moving.
Franklin. Yeah. So Franklin, what do we make of Franklin? David O'Byrne did very well. I thought Dean Winter, I think.
Franklin went according to the script. Yes.
Didn't it. Yeah. Yeah, I think it did. I mean, the greens got a little bit close to two, but that sort of settled down. Yeah. I think that was probably the easiest to predict. Yeah. David O'byrne's vote was pretty solid. Well, um, my reckoning he was he got the strongest vote of any independent in Tasmania at the, at the polls. He got more than Kristy Johnston, didn't he? So did he did. So so what I'm getting at is hard work pays off for David. Um, and I
think that's been well recognized in the electorate. Um, and it does highlight that when you're an independent, just how hard it is to mobilize enough votes to get elected, because look at Dave's profile, look at what he's done, and there he is. So that was great. And I think we'll see Meg Brown in Parliament. Yes. Yeah Toby Thorpe's a chance. Um, because he, he did share that um, uh, sign with Dean. So maybe some people will preference him.
But Meg Brown, uh, got elected and I think, um, that might be because they had a lot of men in Franklin. Meg Brown gave people an option that wasn't a white man. And, um, yeah, I think she worked very hard, obviously backed by the unions. Well, and, and I interviewed I'm not interviewed her, but I met her for the first time last week. I think she's got a lot to bring to the Parliament, so that'll be good. Yeah. I assume.
Your letter to Carol.
Beach. I'm pretty somewhere along the lines. Yeah, I think so. Uh, it's I think, and I've got to give Brad the points on Eric Abetz because even with Jacquie Petrusma in the race, he got a big vote, bigger primary vote than I thought. So I'll give Brad the nod on that one. He might have got 10,000 if it wasn't for voting without her, but it wasn't for Jacquie Petrusma and Nick Street, who you know, I'm a fan of, and I gave him my votes in the player of the year award.
Are you going to say give him your votes on Saturday?
Yeah. No, I'm not saying who I voted for on Saturday. Uh, that'll go with Nick.
Got one of the seven, surely.
Well, you may well say that anyway, um, I, I I'll tell you. I'll say this. I certainly sprayed my vote around on Saturday. I went for people and not parties. Correct. Anyway, I'm surprised he didn't get a bigger vote. Um, and I guess that's because he's pretty low profile. And those of us who know him and work with him, uh, see his huge value. But and I guess a lot of more conservative liberal voters in that part of the world. But anyway, I hope he gets reelected. It'd be a
real shame if he didn't. I'm sure he's fine. I mean, they got 2.6. They'll get three seats.
Unfortunately, Dean's going to miss out.
Yeah, it looks like Dean Young's gone, which is a real shame. I had a lot of time for Dean, as you know. And I hope we see him somewhere doing something in the future.
Certainly a hare-clark resignation.
Yeah. That's it. Very true. All right. Very good result for the Greens in Franklin. Yeah. Rosalie Woodruff got a quota for the first time. Yeah. Um, and you can see in those numbers the effect of a very good election strategy of nominating a lead candidate repeats itself right across the electorates where they've done well. You have a lead candidate who's done very, very well and a bunch of other people who harvested some votes. But that lead candidate here, I think, is going to catch on among
the the miners. I think the Jacqui Lambie Network will learn that one for next time. Yeah. Um interesting. Also down the ticket, the local network result. I think Martine Delaney was actually you probably need to ask them. Um, Martine Delaney ran a very energetic campaign that I don't think would be a 497 votes was not possibly the desired result the local network has. Possibly already peaked, but we'll see. You know, they might be around for a while. It's a long term set.
Leanne mentioned.
She still. I'm not sure if who's behind it. Certainly it's not a party. I just took a glance across. I think you're either a party or you're independents. And I mean, that may be tested with the way the Jacqui Lambie candidates, um, perform. It's a very crowded. There were lots of independents, a crowded field. It's hard to make yourself stand. Well, there was a there was a great Koudelka cartoon going back quite a few months ago, you know. Are you an independent? Independent? Or are you
a former liberal independent? Well, we are I.
Mean, I know we've got time pressure syndicate moving, but I mean, I think the one of the biggest take outs in the election, apart from the result obviously, was that the independents did not an independent independents did not achieve the results expected to to up. And everyone was thinking there might be 4 or 5.
You know, I think a lot of people went for the Greens because like you said, they had a pretty clear campaign and even, you know, even having a policy like the one they had on footy, you know, at least that's clear. Yeah. You know, rather than sitting on the fence. So and you knew where they stood. Let's just quickly round out the grounds here. So let's go to bass. And I got bass badly wrong. Yeah. Did you. Okay I had the libs getting four and their vote
went backwards big time. It did 2,022% or 21 point something. Uh no gut won. Yeah. No gut won. Hurt them big time. Rob Fares I think last time people from all sides of politics must have voted for Peter Gutwein. Well, because of his performance on Covid. I think you're right. I think Gutwein had huge support with him. And without that and with the stadium issue, they mentioned it again. Um, I think they were working against them in, in um,
bass 20 2014, 57% of the vote, 20 1858, 20 2159, 20, 2438. Yeah, that's a big drop off. Did I mention the stadium? Yeah. So you think that what about Michael Ferguson popularity Brad I mean he his vote. Yeah. He'd tell you pretty solid. Yeah. But not as much as he used to get. He used to get a.
Not so sure about.
That 2014. He got a whopping big vote I think.
I think Michael's always been a strong vote getter and consistently strong. But he, um, he has never been sort of in Peter Gutwein. Stratosphere.
Oh he was he beat Peter Gutwein won election. Yeah.
But not when Peter Gutwein got. Yeah. Not 25.
No okay. What I, what I was interested to see was Michelle O'Byrne polls. So. Well I've got to say she beat Janey uh, on primary votes, which I was surprised by. Yeah. I thought Janey would, just because of the way she's been more present. And, you know, Michelle was dealt a pretty tough hand in the last term. Isn't it interesting? Ella wins the vote down here in the South. Michelle wins it in bass. Sort of saying something about where the labor votes sitting. Right. Yeah. Yeah.
Well I mean she was sidelined in the campaign. Obviously the situation with David O'Byrne made the last term really tricky for her. I mean, you know, torn between family and a party as it must be a tough position. And then to lose her dear mum. Yeah. Um, and then get a vote like that. I think she deserves all the respect in the world. Well.
And, David, I know you've got your spreadsheet. There is. Is your favorite candidate Doctor Slaton going to get well?
And Kevin Bonham's favorite candidate.
Kevin Bonham, was on a personal crusade on that one, wasn't he?
On the count at the moment, Simon Wood is slightly ahead on the printout that I've got here. 1809 primary votes. Uh, Doctor Slaton 1648.
So you would think would would be favored as income. But but think so. She's all that free publicity she got from the media has certainly helped.
Her out in that to be very confident in any way. And I was right about the Greens. They got elected pretty comfortably there. So there was a tick. My my call on the Greens was better than my call and some other things. But um, and a couple of independents got a nice little chunk of votes in bass.
Not Miss Alexander though.
Not Miss Alexander. No, I got more than a thousand. Tubby summer. Greg. Tubby. Somewhat, uh, local artist. I'm going to track him down because he got Greg Tubby Quinn 1528. That is not bad. Quite good. Yeah, yeah. So someone should, uh. I'm going to go and do an interview with Greg Tubby Quinn, because that's more than just a oh, well, random amount for independent because he's got such a likeable name. You know, Greg know he must know a lot of people.
I think that's that's an awesome result. So there's a lot I reckon the bloke who puts tattoos on folk in Launceston probably does know. You know. That's a good point. Oh. All right, uh, let's get up to Brad. And what do we think of the result? And Brad. And it was quite a strong result for the Premier. I mean, I think.
Broadly again the Braddon result went according to the book and it will be four four, two one, which I think pretty much everyone wrote before the campaign. Uh, on day one, I think.
And who do we think the one is? Is that Garland?
No no no. Be lambie it'll be be four. So the new liberal be Giovanni Giovanna Simpson. Yeah.
I got that one right, Deputy Mayor.
I think. Yes you did. And the. And then it'll be one of the one of the labs. Not sure which one. Okay.
Deprived myself seven out of seven by saying Craig cuts would be the Lambie. Yeah. Because do you know what cuts was my house at primary school whereas the Vale primary schools. I thought, well that's a great north west name but he's a hard he got he came third. My man came third. All right. All right a couple of observations in Brad and for the Aficionado's Craig Garland Outpoll Roger Jentsch I think that'll be corrected on reference. Always be saying Roger needs a more flamboyant hairstyle. Is
that what you imagine? That change comes back. Inge comes back to Parliament with hair down to his, you know, and you can really starkly see the payoff of that green strategy there. They've again accounted on 2200 votes. Brad is not fertile fields for the Greens, but, um, you know, and then the Lambie Network people all within 100 votes of each other. So that Robson rotation effect. Yeah. People are going 123123123 don't have the Camberley. Right. Well yeah.
Um and whereas the Greens are promoting one candidate I think that's a winning strategy. And I think you'll see that from the Garland. Should be very pleased with his time. Um, that's pretty that's a lot of, um, people to put number one in the box next to him. He should um, I know he hasn't got elected yet, but, um, compared to some of the other independents.
No, he did well with less publicity.
I think he did very well.
He will. Well, he might get there one day.
I think his highest vote was about 10% in a Senate election. One. Yeah. I thought well, in that by election. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So let's just quickly do lines and then we'll move on to a couple more things and round it out. So lines are Janey Hallet I think did really well. She came second. Second most popular libs beat Schultz, which I think was interesting. I didn't I didn't think that was going to be the case. But guy top hollow for the liberals. Obviously Rebecca did very well for
labor in terms of her vote. And we'll see a return of Chen as well.
So I think lines again pretty much go in descriptor. I don't know though I had.
Tucker instead of Lambie once.
According to.
So I mean.
Do you know, um, this Tabitha Badger. She said yes.
I've met Tabitha.
Likely sort.
Yeah. She ran a great campaign. She did. She's um. And not your. Well, no one's your typical green, but she's, um, motor racing fan. Head of the Wilderness Society, wasn't she? Yeah.
Motor racing fan. As a petrol.
I don't. I'm not here to defend my ID. Just saying electric cars. I'm just saying I can do it. I talk to her on election night, and the Greens are very lucky to have. She was a very articulate good in the media. Um, she'll be hard to dislodge, especially if we stay at 35 seats. So. And I warned her there will be some badger puns on the news.
She's probably had them a whole lot.
Yeah, no, nothing she wouldn't have heard before. Um, shooters, farmers? Fishers, um, not seen or heard much of during the campaign. Still get a few votes, don't they? Still get a few votes, but go from being the fourth force in Tasmanian politics to the fifth. Lambie has supplanted them. So that's that bold claim, which I had to check, um, that they
were the fourth Force. Well, speaking as a publisher of a number of rural and regional papers, I've got to say the Hunter shooters and Fishers were very prevalent with our papers in terms of putting forward policies and having conversations with our staff. I found it very.
Dedicated fan base. They do. Yeah.
Yeah. No, it's a solid constituency. Yeah. It is. You know, and they they do do well in some elections in some seats. All right. So there's a couple of couple of sort of issues. We just need to round up before we call it a day. So obviously Rebecca White uh is currently considering her options moving forward.
Well what are they, resign or resign?
I think that's probably the case, but what's your take, AJ? What do you think? Oh, I think Rebecca White will resign. But I think the way labor handled it yesterday was so unnecessary. Like, even if you wanted to do, you know, the first bit and sort of say that okay we lost uh, we're not going to try and scramble together a deal with the greens. That's fine. That's fine. I agree with Brad. You had to do that. There was
agitating yesterday against Rebecca White that I just thought was unnecessary. Like, just let the dust settle. I thought yesterday the story was going to be how can Jeremy Rockliff form government. But again, labor found a way to make it about them. And I think, you know, you didn't have to wait until all the votes were counted. But wait a little while just for the dust to settle. And then but anyway,
people are very impatient. But I think, yeah, she will resign and it will be a contest between Josh Willey and Dean Winter. And then if it's a they can't work out between themselves, it'll go to a, you know, a statewide rank and file battle. You know, like we saw with Albanese and Shorten at the federal level. I think they'll do will.
Do their best to avoid that, wouldn't they?
I'd think they would. But I've had it put to me that that might be just what the Labor Party needs a chance to actually reconnect with their voters and find out why they have been.
For the last time they did.
That, stagnant for three elections in a row.
As elected, David O'Byrne and the parliamentary wing, uh, contrived to knife him within two.
Well, no they didn't. Oh, that's right, they did do it. That went against broad didn't it. Sorry. Sorry about that. And I'm just wondering, uh. That'll see. Josh. Will, I forgot they did it already. Yeah. That's right. That took three weeks. As I recall, there was a postal ballot, which is not not the way to run a ballot these days. I would be getting cracking. If there is to be a change, the time is bad, doesn't it? Yeah.
Parliament's going to be back soon. You want to have someone who's ready established they could gone.
Through the in as is holding. That's right.
They did that now. Yeah it was changes but the clock's ticking. They're going to want to get on with that because there's a lot to be done. Well there's got there's a lot of bloodletting that needs to occur in labour that's for sure. And hopefully a new leadership will be a good thing. And hopefully it's Dean Winter for what it's worth. That's my $0.10 worth here.
From David on on Labor and Miss White.
What?
Well, just wondering what you think.
Um, I think she's been a good leader. I think she's been let down by two things. I think the team, you know, there's been some key strategic decisions, um, that have been that have been fumbled along the way. And I think the, you know, the it's the team in all of the, um, in all of the surveys I've seen, I don't know whether Alex will back me up here, but she's performed strongly in the preferred leadership stakes. She she wins every debate. She performs well whenever she appears
in public. She's got great community connections. The puzzle, the great puzzle of Rebecca's leadership is why, um, you know, she's had three election losses in a row, and I put it down to the team and the. And the administration. I mean, really, um, the, uh, you know, we don't see enough. There's some very talented people within the ranks of labor who we never see or hear from Ella Haddad, as you say. Um, you know, a really good politician,
really thoughtful, um, great labor values. Um, you know, Sarah Lovell established herself as a great spokesperson on health. Um, you know, haven't haven't seen much of her. So I just think the failings that labor have go a lot further than Rebecca White's leadership. I think she should be she should be proud of the work that she's done. But, you know, um, that's politics. Someone wins, someone loses, and that's that's hard. And, you know. And here we ain't.
Brad's about to tell you that a change of leaders go dramatically improved Labor's laverstock.
I mean, I couldn't disagree with you more, David. Um, it's always down to the leader. Um, he's been a great leader. That's taken them to three losses in a row. Um, sorry. The facts do not support that. She might be a nice person. She is a nice person. Um, but, um, there's there's a difference between being a nice person and winning elections. And that's what leaders of political parties are, I think. I can't argue with those. So, I mean, I think I think the reality is, um, if labor,
they should never have brought it back. Um, when, uh, the knifing of of David occurred, they should have gone to someone else. Um, it was a retrograde step, and they are now paying the price for that. They have wasted, wasted an election. Um, sadly, sadly for them. And happily for for my side of politics. Um, look, what will
she do next? I don't know, but I did notice in in the, um, in the, uh, Sky news, um, debate, which seemed to have more greens inside the room than outside the room protesting, for the record, um, that she was asked by, I think, Kieran whether she would rule out, uh, federal lines and pointedly, in my view, did not say no.
Oh, no, I didn't know. She laughed that off.
Yeah, yeah, that's different to saying no. Go back and check the transcript. I said I wouldn't rule that out.
She also said in the debate that the little fat fella, um, compared that she would serve a full term. Um, I hope that I hope that the, the Labor Party and there's already some worrying signs from this point of view, but I hope they don't blast her out because they need her. Like I agree with Brad, she has to take some responsibility. She hasn't been as an effective leader
as we thought that she would be. But before that, the reason that she was the only choice to replace Brian Greene because she was an incredibly effective shadow health minister. So if they, um, disrespect her legacy and blast her out, I think they will miss her sorely if.
She's lost three.
Well, let's respect that. Well, because you can. Well, because you can be unkind to someone.
Well, look, I think you've got.
I think, but I think she'll end up in federal politics for all this time.
All right, well, that'll all unfold in front of us a little fold over the next couple of weeks in terms of what's going on. One other quick thing I see, Jenny Gail has retired. The timing of that. Can anyone shed any shed, any light on that interesting point? Have a good sign when someone retires at 4:00 in the afternoon. You know, when it's announced at 4:00, especially the weekend after an election has been won and run. So yeah. Very interesting. Brad, you got any insights?
Just a mere private citizen as of 9 a.m. this morning. Batshit.
What will that mean for some of the inquiries that she's been asked to give evidence to? We still able to hear from former public servants?
I don't Parliament has has has strong powers. I stand to be corrected.
I don't think state Parliament has the power to compel a person who is not. They can bloody well they can compel, but whether they will, whether they. Well, if you just state or overseas. Well it's the it's the one power the parliament hats they can compel you to appear before a, before a, before a committee. Right. Someone if they were all nice. That seemed to be a lot of effort to go to. It's a very powerful job. Um,
any idea who might replace Jenny? Go. But you're normally got a good inside running on these things.
If had he heard of.
Yeah, yeah. We've only got the news. Come here. Give me a little while longer. I don't have any. Maybe one scoop for next. Yeah, well I'd be I'd be very keen to work it out. So I had a chat with Meg Webb, who I know I don't.
Think she's a.
Great fan of the podcast. Who said that? Hello, Meg. The one thing that Tasmania needs is to get someone from outside.
The state, like LegCo or boys.
Or I don't think she was putting off. I think she was putting her name down for the gig. I think she's got plenty to do. But, um, Jenny Gale, it should be remembered, was very instrumental in the state's, um, response against Covid, and I think she was recognized for that, the premier pointed out. Um, also remembered full.
Medal for doing her job. Yeah.
Her role, uh, in the response to the commission of inquiry. And I touch upon that in my story in the newspaper tomorrow.
Oh, it'll be today when this goes to air.
But yeah, well, I look forward to reading that. That'll be very interesting. I suspect one of the things that, um, um, Mesam has been doing through this campaign is recording our numbers, this scorecard, a scorecard. But but I don't think I don't think the seats are being called yet, so I'm just wondering, Sam, whether we hold that joy.
No, I think we can call them. Yeah, Kevin's called it.
Okay. Oh, Kevin called it. I got the embarrassment out on the trip. Yeah, we can have a little bit of each. Yeah. Each time I think it would be. Well, why didn't you tell us about the.
Well, it's going to be. It'll be 15, ten, five, three, two. Yeah. Okay.
So the closest. I'm the closest one, I think is, uh, David Kulick.
Wow. Really?
Kulick was saving his own 13 seats for most of the campaign.
Yeah, he lost his last call with 15.
1004.
Greens.
Yeah.
Four independents and two Lamby. So pretty close. If that is the closest close, I think we need to give it away. Um, you wrote RJ 1610 one Lamby, four Greens for independence.
Ooh.
And, uh, beach towns end was 16. Ten. Three. Three. Three. Yeah, I. Well, that wasn't far off. That's pretty good. Yeah. Main stream yet to come? Yeah, no I wasn't yeah. I don't think I was far off. And the interesting thing about my numbers, and don't get me wrong, I think we're all pretty well converged pretty closely. By the end of it was they were pretty consistent throughout the campaign. And I think the vote, the one thing the vote did highlight was that I don't think there was much of
a movement out there. Free poll to post poll. That's my sense, as is a lesson for me at a bain Marie or on a political podcast. I went with my gut instead of my head, and if I had a goal in my head, I would have been closer. Because if you follow the polls in and you would have given the lab his three and then work back from there, and I probably would have got really close, I wouldn't have given the greens five despite being very up,
very bullish about their campaign. Two seats in electorate. Water. Yeah. No. You've been listening to the fine cast. The only place to get clear, honest, informed and most importantly, fearless analysis about Tasmanian politics. Don't forget to subscribe, rate, share or review on whatever podcast platform you use to listen to. It helps to share the hashtag politics love with even more people. Fancast is produced by Icon Media and directed by Sam Iken. And until next time, Carry on. Bye bye.