A bullet dodged - podcast episode cover

A bullet dodged

Apr 23, 202450 minSeason 6Ep. 10
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Episode description

How did Jeremy Rockliff fair in his first week as the leader of a minority government? The Lambie agreement continues to be a point of debate. Dean Winter puts his mark on the Labor Opposition with a new shadow cabinet and Brendan Blomeley get's booted from the Liberals.

FontPR Partners Becher Townshend and Brad Stansfield are joined by Win News Director Alex Johnston while the always reliable David Killick takes a well earned break.

FontCast is Tasmania's leading place to get genuine and unfiltered state political commentary and analysis.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

S1

Hello, I'm Beecher Townsend and welcome to the Font Cast, Tasmania's leading only political podcast, giving you all the political views and analysis and straight talking you won't hear anywhere else. Well, David Killick's often what they call a well-earned break at the ABC, not sure what they call it at the Mercury. And I'm about to spend a couple of weeks saving

the planet from the scourge of plastic. So given that there's been a bit in hashtag politics, we thought we'd better get an episode in the can before I head off. Although who knows what else will happen before it goes to air sometime next week. Hello, Brad.

S2

Hello, beech. Good to be back. Um, just for purposes of future reference, at 7:37 a.m., Friday, the 19th of April. Um, I'm thinking people are wondering, how are you saving the world from plastic?

S1

Well, yeah. Okay, so I'm part of a negotiating team, which is going to the United Nations Environment Programme Inc for in Ottawa, Canada, to to assist on negotiating the plastics treaty.

S2

We are not worthy.

S1

No, no. Some say I might run away and join the Canadian Mounties. We'll see anyhow. And Alex Johnson, thank you for coming in so early this morning. How are you, Alex? I don't know where in the world David Killick is, but I'm.

S3

I'm sure it's better than being here with you at 730 on a Friday morning. So how dare you, sir? No, no, I'm being silly. And I wish Dave a very happy holiday. Um. And a well earned rest. He ran a he does a good job. Uh, killer. He's, um. He's well loved. And, uh, I enjoyed his work during the the last phone cast, I relistened to just for his, um, uh, bit about the lambie's. It was very enjoyable.

S1

All right, uh, as usual, there's a lot going on, and I've got a bit on my list. The Lambie agreement still causing a lot of chat in the bubble. Jay Rock 2.0. How's his first week been like wise? We'll take a look at Dean winters leadership and his shadow cabinet. The speakership is Michelle O'Byrne lining up for it? Um, and finally the Brendan Blomeley affair. What on earth is going on inside the Liberal Party? Good question. So, Alex, the Lambie agreement is still causing a lot of chat.

What's your thoughts?

S3

Yes. Well, after that initial press conference where, um, they copped a little bit of scrutiny for being, uh, ill prepared about some issues, especially the commission of inquiry, which I think there was fairly broad consensus that they should have had a response on that. And then, of course, after that we saw the deal, uh, which has, you know, been characterized as one that's very heavily in favor of the liberals. The Lambie's have been very, very quiet since.

And I think, um, a shout out to Josh Dugan, he's been, um, leading the charge in terms of channel seven political reporter. He's been leading the charge in terms of getting them, uh, on camera. And he posted the other day that he got a reply sort of saying, well, for the, you know, next little bit they won't be, which is interesting. And I do wonder whether, um.

S2

Mind you, consistent with their efforts during the campaign.

S3

Well, that's true. Yeah. But I think post-election things should be a little different now I have well, I actually think that, um, they don't have too much to be worried about. I don't think the media pack down here is particularly unfair or ferocious. And I think the more media they do, the more comfortable they'll get. Um, so I would encourage them to do it because I don't think no one's out for blood. Um, but I do think the media pack has a general feeling that you've

been elected. Scrutiny is a very fair thing. So it'll be interesting to see when when we do see them and when we get to know them a little bit better. Um, and of course, some other, um, unsuccessful Lambie candidates have spoken out. I love Sean Ford's catch up with what's the guy's name in the North West, James Redgrave, is that it?

S2

That's the one.

S3

Um, he seemed to think that if, uh, he wanted. Well, on election night, I guess it wasn't clear who was going to be elected in Braddon. He was right in the thick of things. And he said that he's he would have gone after several ministries. Um, so that to me is, uh, a real sliding doors moment. If we had have got James Redgrave instead of Miriam Beswick who is the Lambie member for Braddon. Um, what did you make of that one? Bradley?

S2

I think that, um, there's a general feeling around the traps that it might have been a bullet dodged on that particular one. Um, it was a fairly controversial candidate during the campaign, remember? There's some stuff there about the Trove council where he was, uh, I think some video surfaced during the campaign of him asking questions without notice that I think it was La Trobe Council, La Trobe.

S3

Yeah, yeah. Mr..

S2

Freshney and then there was also another, um, uh, a slightly amusing article I recall in the Advocate newspaper. Uh. Where he, um, uh, uh, claimed to have been and may well, may well be true. The hero that, uh, rescued people from some sort of fiery car crash. I don't know if you recall that.

S3

No, I don't that.

S2

One pass me by. There was some questions asked about how that particular story came to find its way to the advocate, and how he came to be described in such glowing terms. Very interesting.

S3

Well, I, for one, you know, not nothing against Miriam Beswick. I think she'll do a great job. But, gee, it could be it would have been a colorful addition to the Parliament, especially if he was, uh, vying for, you know, the attorney general or something like that. I think most people's idea is the Lambie should have negotiated something between James Redgrave's several ministries and what they got. But it will turn out. I mean, we'll see if it turns out to be, um, a workable relationship.

S1

All right. Well, Brad, what do you think?

S2

Look, I've been thinking about this over the last few weeks, and we had a discussion beach. And I've come to the conclusion that what we are seeing here is, is a continuation of the the world's longest hissy fit, which commenced in 2018 when Labour didn't win the election. They were robbed by the pokie barons and then in 2021, they were robbed by Covid. And now in 2024, they've

been robbed by the Lambies. Yeah. Um, I think, you know, first it was, uh, Labor's fault for not doing a deal with the Greens when labor only got ten seats, and then it was the Lambie's fault for doing a

deal with the liberals. Um, I just think, you know, in the space of a day, we went from, uh, people laughing and jeering at the Liberal Party for daring to attack the Lambie's during the election campaign, to now saying some sort of five D chess conspiracy theory because Glenn Williams went to school with Jeremy Rockliff 35 years ago, and somehow or other, it's all some big stitch up. I mean, it, um, it really is tinfoil hat territory, if you ask me.

S3

If if only scowls were audible, you just got the scowling of a lifetime. Oh, well, I just think Brad has painted like everyone on the left with the same brush, and it's just not right. I don't think Labor's whingeing about the situation. It seems to me like they've trying to lick their wounds and get on with with work and trying to build themselves back up. Yeah, okay. There are some people trying to piece together who is on this Lambie board. I think that's a very reasonable thing

to do. I'm trying to do the same thing. I've asked the party, can I please have a list of who's on the board? Well, haven't got a response. Um, so we're trying to piece it together. And, you know, some people are, you know, putting two and two together and getting nine. I don't agree that it was some pre-election conspiracy, but I do think the liberals have neutralised, you know, a threat or a influence of Lambie by

the deal that they've been able to sign. But there's a lot of people have pointed out that's not set in concrete. They could easily be swayed by public opinion and decide to be what.

S2

They should break their deal.

S3

No, no, I'm not encouraging them to at all, Brad. They can do whatever they want. Ah, some members of.

S2

Parliament are which are quite well, quite astounding.

S3

Well, I mean, you can ask.

S2

Ones that preach integrity.

S3

Well, just because you've signed something doesn't mean that you're now a bastion of integrity. But, um, people will agitate for whatever they think is in their best interest. That's fine, but the lambie's themselves might get some way down the track and think, hang on a minute. We've got elected in our own right here. We are not able to properly represent the people who got us here under this current deal, so they might want to renegotiate the deal.

It'll be interesting to see how Parliament plays out. And there's been some interesting things around Parliament with the end of Dorothy Dixers and the introduction of these constituent questions. We might come to that later. But just on the lambie's, I don't I mean, I think you're conflating so many different issues. Yes. Okay. On election night 2018, Rebecca White's speech probably wasn't didn't hit the notes. It did. And then in 2021, who did you blame then? Covid.

S2

Covid? Well, I didn't blame it. You like.

S3

Did.

S2

Well you're sorry not I apologize. That wasn't you then. It was the Labor Party.

S3

Well I mean 20, 21, they just got flogged because they were terrible at getting their house in order. But Labor's I don't think Labor's um, sulking now. I think they've, they've actually pulled their socks up and have tried to get on with it.

S1

I agree, I don't I don't think Dean winters sulking about it, but I think, I.

S3

Think anyone in the party is there's a few on the periphery, sort of like Brad said, not happy with anything, but that's not the left and that's not labor. And it's not even the Greens, really. I mean, the Greens are being the Greens. It's a few people trying to solve a mystery.

S1

Well, look, uh, mostly on Twitter. Yeah, that's very true. I, um, you know, look, from my point of view, you know, I've been around politics for many years, as most of you know. And the reality is, I certainly understand the frustration in the gallery of not being able to speak to people and get an understanding of it. But, I mean, the reality is, you know, they've created these members from the ground up. They have literally walked in inverted commas

off the street. They're now members of Parliament. They've entered into a relationship with government. My point is, and my point has been since the beginning of this, they will work it out and they will work it out. Over time, it's quite clear if they're stepping back from media commentary, they don't want to work it out in with a spotlight of the Fourth Estate on them, but they will

work these things out over time. They've got considerable power, but the reality is the new the new Parliament will see every bill thrashed out on the merits of its value as it goes through the House. I mean, that's what's going to happen where there's deals in place or not. This is about a question of whether we want to go back to the polls right straight away, because we haven't got a majority on the floor of the House. We don't want to go back to the polls. Nobody

wants to get. Go back to the polls. We want to get on. We want to govern.

S2

I think the problem is there is, uh, some people, uh, a large section of, um, uh, the Fourth Estate in particular. Not not saying it's you, Alex, but others who are seeking to manifest a different result to what was achieved. Yeah. The reality is people did not vote to change the government. They voted to change the government. Labor would not have got ten seats. They would have got a lot more than that. Uh, people voted to give the government a kick up the pants, and they did that by voting

for the lambie's. Therefore, ipso facto, it follows the Lambie's have done the right thing by rolling in behind the government. Um, who have, I think, on on all objective evidence, um, accepted and noted that they've got that kick up the pants in order to ensure the government continue and that it can be, uh, a stable environment that people voted for. I just think people are misunderstanding why people voted for the Lambie's, quite frankly.

S3

But did you watch that explanation from, uh, the constitutional expert Anne Twomey, when she sort of spelled out why she thought the deal went too far?

S2

She an expert in Tasmanian politics?

S3

No, but I think she made some strong points around, you know, the the nature of the deal they've signed. I don't think anyone has a big problem with the lambie's giving the liberals confidence and supply so we can all get on and govern. I just think the general consensus and and Dave.

S2

Dave Killick's the evidence.

S3

Where's the evidence of this general general consensus? Well, I mean, you can only you can only gauge the people who speak up. But I mean, David Kitter there. Thank you. No, no. Hang on. No no no hang on David, you you wouldn't you know, we invite David Killick onto this show because we think he's got something very intelligent to add. I think he spelt it out very well. You know, they signed up to things they were already going to get, you know, they could have just said yes, we want

to be sensible. We want you to govern. You are the premier, but I think they're going to end up regretting all of the ground they've given, because it will make them less effective in Parliament. And they do want to be agitators now, not agitators.

S2

They. Have you spoken to them?

S3

Well, why would you go? Why would you try to get elected to Parliament? If people.

S2

Are just manifesting motivations that may not exist.

S3

Why would you? Why would you then have a party if you didn't want to change the status quo? Obviously, Jacqui Lambie wants to change the status quo. She has in a lot of ways, she's been a breath of fresh air. She doesn't want to be a cookie cutter liberal. She was in the Liberal Party once and she left the Liberal Party, right. She wants to be her own person and therefore I think she wants candidates to be

their own people. You can agitate around issues and in Parliament and make it very healthy without blowing the place up. You know, we criticized John Tucker and Lara Alexander for the extremes they went to. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about having the flexibility in Parliament to just be a little bit more nimble and keep the government on its toes. I think that would be a very healthy thing now.

S2

But that's my point. That's a view which is being put. But I'm not sure that's the view that the voters wanted anyway. Um, you did mention and I think in fairness, and you mentioned two beach that, um, uh, Dean Wynter at least doesn't seem to be in the denialist camp, which is, I think, a credit to him. And I also noticed, um, neither is his candidate for, uh, elwick Tessa McLaughlin. Um.

S1

And she got to say.

S2

Well, you know, they sent a letter to my house. They really need to update their, um, election database. I think they're sort of wasting their money sending me stuff all the time. But anyway, um, you never know.

S3

You've got read out on Tasmania's top declared last time, didn't he, that he's a big fan of the mayor there. Exactly.

S2

Yeah. Um, a bright new spark for Elwick. Um, very clever play on words there. An electrician? Exactly. It's very clever. Um, but bloody bloody bloody bloody blah. With the re-election of the Rockliff liberal government, uh, it is vital blah blah blah, blah, blah. So I'm glad to see that at least there's some people in the Labor Party that have moved past the election and are focusing on the future. All right.

S1

Well, you mentioned the, um, premier receiving a kick up the pants message. Brad, how do you judge his first week in the chair so far?

S2

Look, um, I think mostly pretty encouraging. Um, I'll be interested in Alex's views on this. Um, but, you know, practically, there's been some changes, much needed overhaul of ministerial staff, I think after a decade at the ministerial staffing contingent had become bloated with bureaucratic secondees. And I think that

they've made efforts to seek to change that. Um, the charter letters that the premier's announced, which she has provided to all his ministers, giving clear directions on what he wants them to do and what they should tell their secretaries to do, their department secretaries. Um, and of course, that clear direction is broadly, as I understand it, the 2030 strong plan, um, the rolling out meter events, I think daily around that plan, Alex, or seeking to at

least from what I can see. Um, so I think broadly, um, it's an. Encouraging start, if you can put it that way. And as I understand it, what the Premier is, is doing and telling people is that he's seeking to, uh, govern as if he'd just been re-elected. So if he'd just been elected from opposition as opposed to being re-elected. So he's looking really. Yeah. Looking to sort of set.

S3

A I haven't necessarily felt that.

S2

Clean slate. Yeah. Well let's um, what I've heard him say on occasion, um, my only real criticism to this point is I'm, I'm disappointed that the bureaucracy has not been shaken up. Uh, there's been we've still got the same ex-labour staffer running Treasury. Um, we've got a new head of Deepak who took no criticism.

S3

So, Cath, just for the listeners, Kathryn Morgan-wicks, who's obviously been the head of health for a long time, is now the head of Deepak, replacing Jenny Gale, who, of course, uh, retired just after the election day after or something. Yeah. Um, so that was a predictable, uh, appointment. But obviously health loss is Deepak's gain because I think most people think Catherine Morgan-wicks has been pretty efficient. Is that a. Yeah.

S2

No, I've got no problem with her work. I thought she did a very good job in in health. And as you say, it now leaves a gaping hole in health. But I think, um.

S3

You would have liked to really shake things up. What sort of.

S2

It needed an outsider, not a bureaucratic insider. That's my sense.

S3

And you would have liked someone new for Deepak, someone.

S2

New from outside of effectively the existing system. So the problem is the bureaucracy in Tasmania is a career. It's a club. And, um, unless you can from time to time break it up with people from outside that club, you end up getting a quite well, I think around the top thing, I think.

S3

Around the commission of inquiry, that would have been very helpful and very healthy because, um, even the review into the department heads has not gone down that well. And, you know, now there are calls for it to be, um, started again. And I know you're not the biggest Meg Webb fan in the world, but she articulated the case well, if he didn't have access to all the information or how can you do do the review properly? So no, I tend to agree it would have been a chance

to bring in some new, um, faces. People, maybe people without those ties that go back 20 years. Yeah, there could be a healthy thing. Uh, especially in the context of the COI.

S1

There's no no could be about it. It would be a very healthy thing. I, Brad and I both deal with the bureaucracy quite regularly and, you know, like, oh, you know, it's caretaker mode. So we can't we can't return your phone call or respond to your email. You know, it's it's this constant pushback, uh, ministers giving bureaucrats instructions, instruction, instructions that bureaucrats simply don't follow because they don't want to. They'll come up with 1,000,001 excuses. Oh, we've been busy.

I remember during Covid, the whole world stopped. As far as the Tasmanian bureaucracy was concerned, it's Covid. Beecher and I go, yeah, I get that. It's Covid. Are you handing out face masks? Are you do you know what I mean? Are you running? Running some kind of session to help the community? No. You're sitting in your office doing nothing because it's Covid. And frankly, you know, the bureaucracy needs a significant shake up.

S3

Sitting at home. Beach? Yeah. Yes. Beach. If a fresh set of eyes, someone who had a lot of experience in, you know, maybe government around the world came and had a look at how things run in Tasmania. What do you think their observations would be?

S1

Oh, well, I think their observations would be we have a small public sector. We have a pretty close shop, I've got to say, um, and that we need to lift the calibre of the individuals within the public service, and we need to look at ways in which we can bring in new blood. I know the public sector has grown quite significantly in recent years, but I'm not seeing a lot of change at the top. I'm not seeing, um, uh, movement.

What we're seeing is a natural progression of senior figures through the public service, where they arrive at a particular point. And I'm seeing a government that seems to rubber stamp it. And then if you say to government, you know, why are you going down this process? Why have you done this? Oh, well, nobody else applied beach. There's no one else in the room. This was the only applicant we had, and I just. Well, we're having.

S2

A worldwide universe wide world search to replace Kath Morgan-wicks in health. And in the meantime, we've appointed, um, um, the deputy secretary. Remind me his name. Beach. Um.

S1

Uh, Dale Webster.

S2

Dale Webster is the acting secretary. Yeah, 100 to 1. He'll end up with the job permanently.

S1

As night follows. Day.

S3

I mean, 100 to.

S2

1 or 1 to 100.

S3

001 to 100. But. Yeah. No bookie. Bookie brought those jobs. I thought finally, here's a bet I can get on and might win.

S1

But but I mean, I mean, the point being, you've got to bring new people in to the senior ranks of the service in order to ensure that there's fresh thought and there's fresh views and that people can just come and look at things differently. So what happens in my world is I go to government, I go to them with a good idea. You look at the minister, the. Minister says that's a great idea. Beach. Let's see if we can do it. And frankly, if the bureaucracy does

not like it right, it simply does not happen. And that has got to change. Anyhow, all right, let's have a look.

S2

Is that a Townshend rant? It was.

S3

A Townshend. I set him up because I thought he would have had a view. And he did, and I. Yeah, I think you make a good point.

S1

Well, it's just borne out of some frustration. But anyhow, let's have a look at the other side of the chamber. We mentioned last week that Dean really, uh, shook up Hobart or Killer, at least when he spent his first day on the job in Stratton. He since, uh, announced his shadow cabinet. AJ, how'd his first week go?

S3

Well, I like the shadow cabinet shake up because they did it completely clean slate. You know, no one really got to hang on to their portfolios. Maybe a couple of little ones I can't remember. But a big, big change all around, which gives them a chance to reset and obviously go and meet new stakeholders and develop new relationships. And, um, it's going to be very interesting to see how the public receives Dean Winter. I mean, I've known him a

long time. Um, and he was very popular as Kingborough Mayor. I think he's probably viewed a little bit in a different light since being in opposition politics. I mentioned last time that, you know, I had a lot of feedback saying that he's got to shed the Windsor tag. It'll be interesting to see whether he can make that transition

from sort of being the attack dog to the leader. Um, I think the job they did yesterday with the forest industry saying to the liberals, you know, if you're willing to put aside the forest wars, we could join you. I think that's pretty smart. You know, you don't want to be in lockstep with the liberals on anything. But I think an issue like forestry, I think most Tasmanians would probably prefer it not to be in the news

all the time. And, and I think mainstream Tasmania and I know this Brad might disagree with me here, but I think they'd probably prefer Labor's approach that doesn't ignite the forest wars.

S2

Well, since you've raised it, I'm I must admit to being a little bit confused by Labor's approach slash Nick Steel's approach. Can you tell me how it's actually different to the liberals approach?

S3

Well, I, I don't think that they were going to open up the extra well territory. Well no, that's going to support the industry. You know, I.

S2

Very clearly heard Mr. Steel saying he was prepared to look at additional production out of that forest.

S3

So then why was he so critical when the liberal policy came up? Because he did give them.

S2

That's a question which I think the Fourth Estate could do well to put to Mr. Steel, because I must admit to being a little bit confused by by the, uh, Forest Industries Association's position on this. And bear in mind, the Forest Industry Association does represent the big players in the industry, just as it always has done. And we had this problem back in the original forest deal when they represented the big players and not the small ones. And I'm just a little, uh, confused. I think a

lot of people are as to what they actually want. Now, I think I agree with you. It's smart politics of labor to to basically roll in behind them and roll in behind the government and say, look, we'll we'll work with you on it. But I think the inevitable outcome is going to be that some of that FTTP land is is going to be a future potential production forest land is going to be opened up. That's as I read it.

S3

Well, I'll interrogate that more. I'll go back and have a listen to exactly what Nick steel yesterday yesterday said. But I thought it was more labor sort of saying, you've got to meet us and where the industry is rather than us coming to you. But I think the question is.

S2

Where is the industry exactly? Yeah.

S3

Anyway, I thought, you know, labor have only got a small team in the lower house, and it's a very tough base. I you know, the conversation last time about whether it's enough of a base to vie for majority next time is a really interesting thing. Um, they helped a little bit, but they've got a couple of extras in the upper house, um, which gives them a bit more of a broader. I mean, everyone got a shadow portfolio, and I saw someone sort of make a joke out

of that. But you've got to give people something to do otherwise, you know, it can be.

S1

Not everybody.

S3

Not everyone who missed out.

S1

Craig Farrell, he's too busy as president of the Legislative.

S3

Council. That's a very important job. It's a very important job.

S2

350, 65 days a year. Job that one.

S3

Yes. Um, but anyway, I thought their lineup looks like. Sorry, he doesn't even have trains.

S1

No, no, he hasn't even got choo choo trains. It's. Yeah. Anyhow.

S3

Their lineup looks like it'll be able to, um, match up pretty well against the government. But the big problem is I think they've always done that. Okay. The big problem is, are they going to get out and win back confidence. And just getting back to Dean's leadership, it will be very interesting to see how he's perceived in

six months time. I'd be very interested to see some, uh, polling around that, especially compared to Jeremy Rockliff and how and I'd like to see some sort of detailed polling, because we're not in a good position to do it. We know these people. We've met them. We know what they're like on camera. We know what they like off camera. I would love to see some polling around what people

think about Dean winner compared to Jeremy Rockliff or other leaders. Um, from a focus group point of view, from people who are not engaged in politics, I think it would be fascinating to know, and I think the Dean should be interested in that as well, because he has to be a bit of a sponge to criticism. And as I said in the last episode, he doesn't have a glass jaw. He doesn't mind, he doesn't want to be everyone's friend.

But I think he does need to listen very carefully to those perceptions, because once they build up in the community, and I think this is a problem for Rebecca White, once people have an idea of of who you are, that's very, very hard to change. Very hard to.

S1

Change. Yeah. Well, well, I think I think he's on the right path and I think give it six months and we'll see where he's at. Looking at the reshuffle, from my point of view, I.

S2

I were a bit disappointed.

S1

I was, I was and.

S2

In the sense that you barracking for labor, to be clear.

S1

Well, yeah. Well, I just think, um, and I caught up with Dean earlier this week and I didn't give him any feedback on the, on the, uh, shadow cabinet.

S2

Preferred to do it from a distance.

S1

Well, I'm going to do it on air, which is, you know, a bit, a bit too faced of me. But anyhow, listen, um, uh, you know, look, putting Ella Haddad into health, I mean, Ella's one of the best brains they've got in the in the labor front bench, and she's going to be buried in health and she's putting a brave face on it. She's going to give it a go. I just I don't know whether that's where you put some of your best talent. Josh. Uh, into Treasury. Well, that's going to be hard work for Josh.

He's going to have to work very hard to win the respect of the business community.

S2

I've got to have to be a bit more visible than he was as shadow education minister.

S1

And he's actually going to have to be out and about, and he's going to have to be seen. So I look forward to catching up with you soon. Josh. Shane, um, you know, Shane Broad got a significant demotion, as far as I can see. I sort of get why I, um, I do think with a bit more time.

S2

Well, you did cock up the cost.

S1

Yeah, I know, look, I appreciate that that occurred. I just think with a bit more time, he he he he he has a lot to offer, I suppose is my view. Um, and I can only encourage him to keep going. Um, it'll be interesting to see how Luke Edmonds goes. He's picked up a couple of portfolios sort of around sort of sort of junior portfolios and shadow finance. So he's got quite an opportunity there. Janey's got energy. I've got a lot of time for Janey Finley. I

think she's a great operator. I definitely got to know really well during the state the recent state election. And she is the Energizer bunny 100%. She's fantastic. But I've got to say, Dean has always had a passion for energy. I think it is the most important portfolio in Tasmania at this point. That's my view in terms of our long, our medium to long term economic prosperity is tied to energy. It always has been. It's such a it's you know, it's just Tasmania's sort of I don't know, it's just

where we sit. And so I just to lose energy from Dean to Janie. Janie is already working at it. She's already sent me a note saying, I want to catch up. I want to chat to a few of the people you work with beach, which is great, and I will work very closely with Janie, but I'm also I just think Dean's got to take a bit of a role in that as well.

S3

So I think as leader, he naturally will he and he probably because he, he and Janie get on very well. I think he maybe sees that as working together as a bit of a team, I think. So sharing the love a bit because he wants to make energy obviously a big priority for what he does. So more hands on, you know, having an ally or colleague that knows it as well will be handy. So I sort of get what you're saying, but I don't think he'll, um, wash his hands of any.

S1

No, no. And I and that's the one thing I did chat to him about was to say, look, you know, on energy, I still want to I still want to be able to interact with you. And I think you're dead. Right. I think it'll be a much more inclusive approach around that portfolio. But I suppose I suppose from my point of view, it'll be interesting to see how everybody goes. You know, they've all got a great opportunity across the across the shadow cabinet to really get out there and shine.

And there was some criticism during the election campaign or at the tail of the election campaign about labor being quite risk averse and unwilling to adopt new policies and do those kind of things. I talked about it a lot on air about them just having a crack and and they're going to get things wrong. Right? That's quite clear. But they're going to get things right. And they should just have a red hot tilt, and they should have a red hot tilt from today or from this week.

Dean should and he is. And they should treat every day from today as a day of the campaign to get re-elected.

S3

I think putting Ella in health is actually tactically quite smart, because I think she's probably got the best relationship with some of those left wing unions, so she might be able to repair some damage there with, you know, because hacksaw and, and EMF, obviously the front line of when we're talking in the media about health and I think that they've got time for Ella, especially Hacksoo. So I think that's probably smart. They're in a nice foil to to the government. Um, I.

S2

Mean.

S1

Health is Labor's strong suit.

S2

It should be. Absolutely. It wasn't in the campaign.

S3

No. And and it wasn't back in 2018 either. Yeah. You know, like Brad and I argue about pokies, we won't bring that up again. But when that issue by issue poll came out, we had, I thought, a very effective term with the Rebecca White as shadow health minister. And when people were polled, who do you trust more to run health? The liberals were ahead. Um, despite a term of bad headlines. Yeah. It's a big problem for labor how they turn that around and I don't know how they do it. Well.

S2

Well, I'm not sure they turn it around with their labor. I'll come to that. But, um, the problem they had in the last the recent election campaign with their health policies and I think it was the same problem in 2018, different in 2021, because they had Bastian, who was a star in that space. Was that the health policies, if you look at them closely, were all about the workers. They're all about the unions. They were all about looking after better pay, more permanency, etc., etc. for the staff

in the health system. And there was very little about the actual patients. Yes. So libs come out and say we're just going to ban ramping because that's going to help the patients and that gets way more cut through and interest. Then it's like we're going to make 500 health workers permanent. It's like great for the workers, great for the unions, but for the punters, how's that helping me? And that was their issue, I think.

S1

And AJ, you know, from working in commercial TV, I know as a former commercial TV, um, hack of some description that health rates hack.

S3

Yeah. Well I, I'm not sure what there's a voracious appetite out there for, but it's certainly an interesting issue because everyone has a relationship with the health system. Um, I mean, I take Brad's point. Yeah. Okay. But the feedback everyone gives when they talk about health on commercial radio or ABC radio is I had a wonderful experience with the nurses. I wish they were looked after better.

So there is a people do want the workforce to be stronger and paid well, but also the things that are like affect their grandpa or grandma I think they want as well.

S2

I just think their yeah, their policies have been misdirected. Um, anyway, um, on Dean, um, very impressive start. Uh, in my view, um, he's demonstrated absolutely why the Premier was correct to call an election while Rebecca was still in the chair. Absolutely. 100% vindicated in that call, because if labor had have woken up and have had have made that change prior to the election and they.

S1

Were they were.

S2

Advised then we would do you.

S3

Know that there's no evidence of that. I'm not necessarily arguing with you.

S2

But in my view, well, I think well, one, the evidence of the election campaign shows that our labor was unelectable under Miss Wyatt. That's a fact. Evidence shows that. And second evidence in my mind of the way that Dean has started this job shows that he absolutely gets it and absolutely would have been and will be a very formidable opponent. He's been relentlessly on messaging only one week. Yeah, but relentlessly on message.

S3

What does he do on an issue like the stadium though? So yesterday the debate was around the goods shed. How do you move the goods shed. And Dean listed all the problems with Macquarie Point. Now he made some very strong points but on the news very negative. Look like he didn't think it was going to go ahead. How does he navigate that. So when he's on the news he doesn't look like he's just complaining about things. He looks like he's a premier in waiting.

S2

Well I didn't see that one. But I mean, I think we've already discussed he needs to come in and back the stadium, uh, very quickly. And I think he's going to I mean, I listened to his interview the other day on, on the ABC. I'm prepared to mention them, even if they don't mention us. Beach. That's, um. That's twice. That's right. Um. Mention who? Sorry, ABC. ABC mentioned you guys once.

S3

They played Brad in the.

S2

Afternoon. Oh.

S3

Did they. Oh they did. They were very straightforward about where their audio is coming from anyway.

S2

Anyway, that's. Hello, David Riley. Um, as I was saying, um, distracted by the ABC, um, Dean was on the ABC, um, and he was very strong, uh, talking about jobs and not playing politics. He got offered a free kick on the Lambie stuff and didn't go there, which I'm sure that his predecessor would have been down that sort of road three days earlier, running that same sort of left

wing attack. Um, and it was very clearly in my mind, positioning himself to, to back the stadium, um, because of jobs, jobs, jobs, because it's all part of his bigger narrative. And so I was very, very impressed. I've been very impressed with him. Um, a little perplexed by the shadow cabinet. Um, not quite sure why. Well, I'm not sure why you would, um, uh, reward your Biggest Loser, uh, with the prize portfolio of shadow attorney general. And in the process, punish the biggest.

S3

Loser, Rebecca Walker. More votes than anyone else in the.

S2

Labor Party makes the Biggest Loser in my mind. Why? We reward her with a with a plum shadow.

S3

Now she's not leader. You've got to get over this. I don't know what.

S2

Plum Shadow portfolio and.

S3

Someone who looked like Rebecca White not dance with you at the formal or something like, I think you've got to get over this Rebecca White hate. Now, she's.

S2

Not the leader. I don't have any hate. I'm just making a point that they would reward her with the Plum shadow portfolio and take it away from Ella Haddad.

S3

The shadow attorney general.

S2

Plum, uh, because it is an important high profile portfolio. Take that away from her. Um, give that to, um, Rebecca and reward Ella for being the second top vote getter in the Labor Party. At least. At least the top vote getter in in Clark, uh, with with a very difficult portfolio, then make a sort of stand in a hostage video on on down there on, um, the

waterfront sort of agreeing to it. I just find that a bizarre I don't understand the Labor Party, but that would not have happened in the Liberal Party.

S3

Well, I don't agree. I mean, Shadow Health is the biggest one because she's going to get on the news. The most. Shadow attorney general very rarely gets on the news.

S2

Looking forward to, you know.

S3

Shadow health ministers on the news 2 or 3 times a week.

S2

And she'll be she'll be pigeonholed as whingeing Ella within about three months. This is the trouble.

S3

Yeah. What the history of shadow health ministers haven't gone very well.

S2

Generally not.

S3

Well, I don't agree with that.

S2

One other thing.

S3

Jeremy Rockliff was a shadow health minister. He was. Now he's the premier.

S2

Yeah, he's he's just.

S3

Won an election.

S2

He's done very well. He has. You're right. Um, speaking of shadow ministers, there's one we haven't mentioned.

S3

Brett Whiteley as.

S2

Well. But don't go there.

S3

More middle of the road. But anyway.

S2

He became a federal MP.

S3

Yeah, exactly.

S2

Michelle O'Byrne. Very light load. Very very light load. Yeah. Well I think we know the reason why.

S1

I think, uh, killer basically confirmed it last episode. And Brad, uh, you and I have firmly have independently firmed it up since then. Michelle O'Byrne is definitely lining up for the speakership. That would really shake things up in Parliament. Perhaps give the left a consolidation prize, at least.

S2

Consolation.

S1

Consolation? Yeah, the booby prize.

S3

I want to hear about the speaker, but I've got to take umbrage with Brad. Light load, economic development, children and youth, community services, women, heritage and arts. Children and youth is probably one of the hottest issues in the state at the moment. Off the back of the CI, she was the light load.

S2

She was their top vote getter in bass beat Janey Findlay. If she had have run for leader that she would have won for leader. Correct. And and she's now got a few portfolios that can easily be reallocated when she gets, uh, placed into the chair. Which, which the point is, is absolutely the plan. And I do not see at this point how that actually does not happen if you take ten labors, the maths, do the maths, ten labors, five greens,

I can do with them on this one. That's 15 add in, um, uh, Miss Johnston and, uh, let's let's assume Mr. Garland also supports her. That's 17. Even if the three lambie's hold with the libs and hold with shelter, which which is not written into the agreement. But let's assume they do that. Um, that just needs some random bloke in Franklin who might be related to Michelle to vote for her. And she gets the job.

S1

Yeah, yeah.

S2

So I cannot see how it doesn't happen, quite frankly. And, um, if if that is what she wants and I gather she does. Um, and so, um, my advice to the, to the Liberal Party, to what extent or the government, to what extent they listen to me these days. Beaches. Um, who knows? Um, you know, um, sorry, Schultz, you've been an excellent speaker. You've done a great job, but we don't want to put you up for a vote that we're going to lose on the very first day of Parliament resuming.

S3

Very interesting. Well, I can't I was only pushing back on the fact you said she had a light load, because I thought, that's quite a good list of portfolios, but I can't agree. I disagree with any of that. That seems like logic to me. Of course, David Oberm would vote for, um, his sister. Um, maybe. Yeah, I can't see. I can't see that not happening. Then you've made a good case. Well, I.

S1

Sort of I've reflected on most minority governments, and the first thing you do to flex a bit of power on a minority government is, is boot the speaker and get the speaker in. You want to fire a shot across the bow of government and say, you've got to keep on your toes. And I don't see why this government will be any different. And I think you're right, Brad. If the government actually sucked it up and accepted that that was going to happen, then probably would avoid an

embarrassing vote. But the symbolism, the symbolism of having Michelle in that role will not be lost for anybody.

S2

Oh and practical. Well, as well, I mean, it will make for a very different Parliament when you have the most important position in the Parliament controlled by the opposition.

S1

Yeah. And the next question goes to the member for Franklin, David O'Byrne.

S2

And then next.

S1

One as well goes to the member for Franklin. David.

S3

Oh, sorry. I only had six prepared. Um, um, how are you today? My question is to the speaker. Are you what? Well, what should we get? Uh.

S1

Anyhow? Look, good. Good, good on him. Uh, I think I think it'll be great. And it sort of gets to my point about Parliament, about the government we're facing and about it will be what it will be.

S2

And we shouldn't suggest that if Monsieur does get the job, that she won't be in any way. Absolutely not fair or non-partisan in that role. I mean, I think Craig has demonstrated as the Labor speaker, labor present in the upper house, Craig Farrell, first one ever. I think that you can do those jobs independently. And yeah, no.

S3

I was only being being silly about the, uh, sibling love there. Uh, obviously they are very close, but, um, it was very funny. No, I think that she would be an excellent speaker, you know, obviously been around for a long time, knows the rules very well. You know, Mark shorten was pretty fair, but I think I yeah, I think the liberals would sort of got away with, uh, a bit under, uh, Schultz, I think and I think Michelle would make it pretty clear early that she was independent.

She would fire a few shots at labor as well. And, you know, obviously might enjoy that, might enjoy that. Yeah. Um, putting a few people back in their seat, I think she'd be keen to show very early on that she'd be a very impartial speaker. But, um, it would be fun, I think. Yeah, I mean, I'm. I'm excited at the prospect of it.

S1

Well, speaking of bizarre internal sort of machinations, let's have a chat about what's going on inside the Liberal Party at the moment. The apparent expulsion of Clarence Mayor and the Franklin electorate chair Brendan Blomeley. AJ, what's what's the background to this and where's this one going to end?

S3

Is this a chance for me to brush off my Eric Abetz again? No. Um, please. So if you haven't been following it and Brad might correct me if I'm wrong, but Brendan Blomeley during uh, the campaign didn't rule out straight away that he would have maybe ran as an independent and looked in his defense. It didn't simmer in the public debate for long. I think it was only overnight. And then the next day.

S2

About three days, I.

S3

Think about three. Okay, well, we'll see which side Brad's on. But anyway, no, um, and then he said, no, I'm not going to run as an independent and ruled it out. And obviously the party, um, didn't like that very much. And Michael McKenna, the president, he, um, expelled him and backdated it to the day that he said it. Is that right? Correct. So, um, as far as the party

was concerned, that was see you later, Brendan Blomeley. But of course, Brendan Blomeley has a lot of allies in the Liberal Party, including Eric Abetz.

S2

One anyway. Yeah, one powerful one.

S3

One powerful one. Yeah. And then they assembled at the, uh, Bellerive Yacht Club the other night and I think unanimously decided that.

S2

Did they or was it if a, if a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, if a meeting happens and it allegedly isn't a real meeting, what does it happen? Well, I don't know.

S3

You don't think the meeting went ahead?

S2

Well, it happened, but did it happen like was it was it an actual meeting of the Liberal Party, or was it just a group of random people gathering together? That's where we.

S3

This is where we defer to your knowledge. But, you know, according to those on Mr. Bromley's side, they send a resounding message that they don't have confidence in, in the president. So, uh, I spoke to Brendan Blomeley the other day about a non-political thing because, of course, he was caught up, well, very close to that awful, um, events in Sydney last weekend. But, um, he seemed to tell me that he. Well, we'll see what happens next. I guess he didn't. He kept his

cards pretty close to his chest. What do you think will happen, Brad? Will they bring him back in? If he was to reapply as a member, would he be allowed to sign up again?

S2

I reckon he would, but I don't see him doing it, because that would be to admit that he had been ejected in the first place. So I think that's an unlikely course of action. Look, I think this was a case of Brendan's ego getting ahead of his brain and then of a similar thing happening with with the president. Mr. McKenna, quite frankly, um, my mind is no doubt Brendan made a mistake when he let that public commentary run during

the campaign. No matter which way you look at it, for a member of the Liberal Party executive would have been the same with the Labor Party to publicly contemplate running against your own party in an election. Uh, is, to be frank, grossly disloyal. Uh, there's no other way of looking at it. But having said that, and of course, you never had a chance of winning the seat was never going to happen. Not when not when you look

at the field in Franklin in particular. But having said that, I do think that the reaction was.

S3

Uh, heavy handed.

S2

Not well thought through. Yes. And it would be much better. I think both of them would be well advised to to sit down and work out their differences in an amicable way, which allowed Brendan back into the party and perhaps on the way through he might, you know, if not, say sorry, at least admit that possibly he was a little rash in what he did.

S3

Labor's tried to bring the Premier into it by saying, uh, McKenna's rock cliffs, man. Is there truth in that? Are they close?

S2

No, I don't think that's true. Um, I think the bigger issue is, uh, that the new minister in the Rockliff government, uh, Mr. Abetz, is very active in this space, like he did go to the the meeting which.

S3

You're now saying it did happen.

S2

What I was trying to say, clearly not very, uh, clear way was the meeting was called by Brendan as nominally the chair of Franklin electorate. But according to Mr. McKenna, is no longer a member. The party. So he couldn't call the meeting. So my question was, it wasn't was it actually an official meeting, the Liberal Party, just a good.

S3

Old catch up between. Well.

S2

That's the question. But the point is, uh, Mr. Abetz went, um, he's backing Brendan. That's fine as far as that goes. Um, but I do think there's a bigger problem with Eric, um, whereby he, uh, is now a a member of the parliament, a minister in the government, and is still, as I understand it, a member of the Liberal Party, executive, deputy chair of Franklin. Now, um, I don't see how that is a sustainable position for him to maintain. There's a

very clear difference between the, um, parliamentary. Wing of the party and the administrative wing. Never shall the twain shall meet except for, um, the Premier or the Premier's nominee. Um, you know, when, uh, Simon Baracus was elected to Parliament last year on an account back or a recount, he resigned from the executive. Um, you know, I'll gather Eric's saying. Well, look, there's no explicit rule that I shouldn't be on the on the state executive. Doesn't say I should resign. But

you know Eric. Well, he set.

S3

Himself the other day that the two shouldn't meet. When he was interviewed outside government House, they asked him about the Blomeley affair. And he said that he's always had an opinion that the the parliamentary wing and the party wing shouldn't overlap. So I think he knows that that's unsustainable. But we'll see whether he would assume.

S2

His resignation from the from the he's.

S3

Had a bit on maybe just he's taking.

S2

His time to write the letter. I mean I mean as I understand it, he's saying, well, there's no explicit thing that I should resign. Um, it shouldn't be on it. But I mean, you know, uh, the cabinet isn't explicitly defined in the Constitution Act either, but he's a member of that. I mean, I just think it would be

wise for him to to choose his path. And I think he will be a very good minister and a very good member of Parliament and, um, uh, focus on that rather than trying to have a foot in both camps.

S1

Well, Brad, I don't think you'll be getting a Christmas card from Eric this year.

S2

They stopped a long time ago.

S1

All right. All right, well, that's time. And Ottawa beckons. And, uh.

S3

Oh, that's where you're going.

S1

Yeah. That's correct.

S3

Ottawa.

S1

Ottawa. Ottawa.

S3

Pen pal from Ottawa once.

S1

There you go. Um, you've you've been listening to the forecast. The only place to get clear, honest, informed and most importantly, fearless analysis about Tasmanian politics. RJ, thanks for coming in.

S3

Beecher. May I just say that I hope you have a terrific time in Ottawa and when you come back, I look forward to discussing transport issues with you.

S1

Fantastic. Well, I'm happy to give you a blow by blow account of the impact of expanded polystyrene on the rest of the world. And, uh, Brad, as ever.

S2

Thank you. Beach. Thanks, RJ. Thanks, Sam.

S1

Don't forget to subscribe, rate, share or review on whatever podcast platform you listen to. It helps to share the hashtag politics love with even more people. Forecast is produced by Icon Media and directed by Sam Icon. And until next time, Carry on.

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