Positive Returns Even with Hawkish Central Banks: Global Fixed Income Forecasts

In this inaugural Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower.

The two discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Global Creditors Tempted to Lean In After $5 Trillion in Losses. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Jersey and Sassower also discuss one of the risk higher yields will post to returns, but Jersey notes that the path matters, suggesting higher yields may be a near-term risk, while longer term an economic slowdown is more likely. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns.