The inflation vs. recession debate and how that will drive a Fed pause vs. pivot dynamics is casting a shadow over all markets, including credit. The key question for us is whether the tightening of financial conditions will affect credit. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies at Mizuho international, discuss the macro headwinds due to central bank tight...
Nov 14, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Our latest FX Moment podcast focuses on changes in US dollar price action and what can be learned when it comes to finalizing 2024 US dollar prospects. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX strategist, and Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets discuss the dollar-negative narrative that could unfold in 2024, and conclude it won't be an easy ride for dollar bears as long as the Fed holds onto a high-for-long rate language, with Jeremy sugges...
Nov 10, 2023•18 min
Distressed debt has risen sharply in the past two weeks, with the outlook increasingly uncertain heading into year-end. Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss this and other topics in this edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. In other topics, Balluku interviews Electric Capital General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer Emily Meyers on the impact of bankruptcies on crypto's reg...
Nov 07, 2023•1 hr 27 min
The bar has increasingly moved higher for the Bank of England to hike again in this cycle after leaving rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. The market is focused on the timing and extent of 2024 rate cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.
Nov 03, 2023•16 min
“Our view is that the Fed is done hiking. But the question now turns to how long the Fed maintains rates at this level,” Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist says. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey reviews recent developments following the November FOMC meeting and the Treasury department’s quarterly refunding announcement. He says Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than he had at previous meetings, but still anticipates the Fed ...
Nov 02, 2023•18 min
“There's not enough private credit capital relative to private equity demand,” Armen Panossian, managing director, head of performing credit and incoming co-CEO for Oaktree Capital Management says. Panossian joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the podcast FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about private-credit growth, the high-yield opportunity, expected impacts from a prospective economic slowdown and more.
Oct 31, 2023•1 hr 6 min
“There’s always an opportunity at the issuer level in leveraged finance,” Bryan Whalen, co-chief investment officer and a generalist portfolio manager for TCW’s fixed income group says. Whalen joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss positioning for economic turbulence across core-plus and high yield, the value proposition in mortgage-backed securities and why corporate credit spreads look tight.
Oct 27, 2023•50 min
Emerging market risk premia is on the rise, as higher geopolitical risk amplifies the impact from tighter financial conditions. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, JPMorgan Managing Director of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on emerging market interest rates and foreign exchange. From the selloff in US Treasuries to rising oil prices and China's struggling economic recovery, we discuss the oppor...
Oct 25, 2023•25 min
Rates are higher (for longer, if we’re being honest), the curve is pancaking and, once again, fixed-income losses will be headline fodder. However, with every tick higher in benchmark yields, municipals get an opportunity that many in the asset class won’t see in a career. For those investors focused on building an income stream and less on immediate statement marks, munis are becoming the must-have accessory for this fall season. James Pruskowski, chief investment officer and head of the Global...
Oct 19, 2023•44 min
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at CBOE. They address concerns over zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), the typical users and common strategies traded. Other topics include the lack of reactivity of the VIX to market declines and dispersion trading.
Oct 16, 2023•18 min
“There’s no hope on the [US federal] deficit front,” says Robert Tipp, PGIM’s Chief Investment Strategist and head of global bonds on this 200th edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Tipp joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on this Macro Matters episode to discuss the state of the global rates markets, including Tipp’s view on the near term and more secular drivers of Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s policy. Tipp sees the...
Oct 12, 2023•24 min
High yield had a great year in terms of returns in both US and Europe. In Europe, we saw just two index defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control while its surged in the US. Will 4Q sustain this year's gains, and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A forma...
Oct 10, 2023•50 min
“Disruptors can ruin the status quo, but they can replace the status quo with something that is not sustainable because it doesn’t have a core business model. Streaming right now is in that space,” Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus podcast. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankru...
Oct 06, 2023•1 hr 34 min
In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics' US economist, discuss possible US recession risks, the US economic outlook into 4Q and 2024 and associated downside risks for the dollar. Audrey and her colleague talk about how the US economy already may have started to turn, and how -- combined with a mid-term disinflation outlook -- 2024 Fed rate cuts may be contemplated after all, which could tri...
Oct 05, 2023•21 min
“Your optimized portfolio isn't optimal if you can't trade it.” Paul Kamenski and Robert Lam, co-heads of credit for Man Numeric, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the evolution and outlook for systematic credit. Trade automation, training models and why systemic credit is still in it's early stages of growth. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.
Sep 28, 2023•1 hr 2 min
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Pierre de Saab, Partner at Dominice to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape. Topics discussed includes interest-rate volatility, VIX risk premium, call overwriting strategies and zero-days-to-expiry options (ODTEs), which now make up more than 50% of the overall volume of SPX options traded.
Sep 26, 2023•16 min
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the Bank of England, economic outlook and market volatility.
Sep 25, 2023•15 min
Despite trillions being passed through recent bills to reduce inflation and spur infrastructure spending, neither goal has really been met. At first blush, the prospects of all that federal money being directed at much needed infrastructure improvements and repairs was music to the muni markets ears. However, that dream of being part of the funding solution has never really materialized and only added to the myriad of issues facing the tax-exempt market. Joining myself and Karen this month to di...
Sep 22, 2023•53 min
“The 10-year Treasury ending the year around 4.2-4.3% seems fair, but the recent selloff has been overdone,” William Marshall, head of US rates strategy at BNP Paribas says. Marshall joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast to discuss his market views in the wake of the September FOMC meeting. The pair dissect recent yield moves across the curve, as well as underlying catalysts and narratives. These i...
Sep 21, 2023•23 min
In this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss high yield’s and distressed’s uncanny strength through the summer amid higher rates. Then, bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Brendel have an in-depth interview with Kris Hansen, co-chair of the financial restructuring group at Paul Hastings, on how “creditor-on-creditor violence” is a misnome...
Sep 19, 2023•1 hr 54 min
Should the US economy avoid a recession over the coming months as anticipated by the Bloomberg Economics team, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for all of 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on the latest episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The Fed may be forced to end asset runoff in 1H24, he says, as reserves become scarce. In addition, Jersey answers other common questions from buy-side investors during his recent California roadshow, includi...
Sep 17, 2023•21 min
Emerging market currency volatility is on the rise, as the dovish tilt in monetary policy causes real yield differentials to converge with the US and Europe. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through episode, Shamaila Khan, Head of Emerging Markets & Asia-Pacific at UBS Asset Management Americas, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her outlook on emerging market debt. From idiosyncratic risk in EM distressed debt to China’s struggling property sector, we discus...
Sep 15, 2023•24 min
Credit markets saw stupendous growth in socially responsible and green bonds from a variety of credits and many sustainability and ESG specialized funds and investment vehicles have taken off in the past four years. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Mitch Reznick, Head of Sustainable Fixed Income at Federated Hermes Limited, discuss the shades of sustainable bond and fund types: Sustainability, E...
Sep 12, 2023•52 min
In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, BI chief Asia FX and rates strategist, look into how the recently announced plan for a larger BRICS has rekindled the de-dollarisation theme. Audrey and her colleague address the highly relevant economics and politics behind the BRICS extension and look into how this may impact de-dollarisation. In practice, expect limited impact for decades to come, with the dollar unc...
Sep 06, 2023•18 min
Money has been leaking out of municipal mutual funds this year, but the same can’t be said for alternative products, such as exchange traded funds, though there’s been some recent cooling, especially in separately managed account platforms, an area we’ve spent much time exploring this year on Masters of the Muniverse. In this episode of the podcast, Andrew Clinton, CEO and founder of Clinton Investment Management, sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an ...
Aug 30, 2023•51 min
The keys to evaluating structured credit are “the value of the assets, the value of the structure and the value of the option,” according to Brett Jefferson, founder, president and co-CIO of Hildene Capital, with $14 billion in assets under management. Jefferson and co-CIO Dushyant Mehra join Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch episode, part of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discuss...
Aug 25, 2023•59 min
The Treasury market selloff throughout August was in part due to increased issuance, but largely driven by the market repricing the future path of monetary policy, TD Securities USA’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Gennadiy Goldberg says on this Macro Matters podcast episode hosted by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey. Goldberg discusses his views on the Treasury market, the future of global monetary-policy actions and investor expectations for the economy....
Aug 24, 2023•20 min
Credit markets have had a correction in the past month, across the board. It takes us to an interesting juncture where we ask if the correction has longer to go or is largely done, and which asset classes stand to benefit most in its aftermath. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Boris Okuliar, Co-Head of Global Liquid Credit at Ares Management, discuss the situation in global credit and the challe...
Aug 22, 2023•51 min
In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX Strategist and Maeva Cousin, senior euro area economist at Bloomberg Economics, look into the euro and US near-term growth dynamics and how these may shape BI's euro-dollar outlook into year-end. We also touch on the euro-inflation outlook and European Central Bank's rate prospects for 2023 and 2024. For now, our positive euro-dollar relative growth differential outlook holds, but recent euro data ha...
Aug 14, 2023•16 min
Latin America central banks continue to focus on inflation, yet fiscal deficits remain elevated and growth is in decline. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast episode, Fernando Losada, Managing Director and Head of Latin America Sovereign Research at Oppenheimer, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on Latin American debt markets, with a focus on Central America and the Caribbean. From tourist inflows and remittances...
Aug 11, 2023•28 min
